Tag Archives: Marianne Williamson

Williamson “Un-Suspends” Her Campaign; Banks Unopposed in Indiana; McConnell Steps Down; Montana’s Rosendale Seeks Re-Election; Changes in NY-1 Race

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 1, 2024

President

Marianne Williamson / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Marianne Williamson: “Un-Suspends” Campaign — Democrat Marianne Williamson, who suspended her presidential campaign after the Nevada primary, returned to active status on Wednesday. As a non-candidate in South Carolina and Michigan, she placed ahead of Congressman Dean Phillips (D-MN) in both states. Neither, however, have registered even five percent support against President Joe Biden. Williamson’s return to active campaigning will do little to dissuade a Biden renomination. He remains on target to clinch the party nod after the March 19 primaries conclude.

Senate

Indiana: Rep. Banks Unopposed for Senate Nomination — The Indiana Election Commission unanimously removed Republican John Rust from the ballot for failure to meet one of the party standards to qualify as a candidate. That is, Rust could offer no proof that he voted in two consecutive Republican primaries. The Commission’s action means that Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) will enter the open Indiana Republican Senate primary as an unopposed candidate.

Winning the GOP primary will then give Banks the inside track to winning the Senate seat outright in the general election. This will become one of the easiest open Senate campaigns that we have seen in recent memory. Sen. Mike Braun (R) is bypassing running for a second term to launch a gubernatorial bid.

Sen. Mitch McConnell: Stepping Down from Leadership — Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) announcement that he will step down as Republican Leader after the elections in November could cause some uncertainty in the GOP fundraising ranks. The Senate Leadership Fund, which several of his key supporters run, raised over $289 million for the 2022 election cycle. In the year 2023 just concluded, the Fund attracted over $37 million. It remains to be seen if the national Republicans’ fundraising drops even more now that donors know McConnell’s time as Leader will be officially coming to an end.

House

MT-2: Rep. Rosendale Will Seek Re-Election — We are now seeing a retirement reversal trend taking hold. Montana US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), after entering the Senate race for just a week, will now instead actively pursue a re-election campaign. With the incumbent returning, it remains to be seen just how many of the nine announced GOP candidates, including former at-large Rep. Denny Rehberg, State Auditor Troy Downing, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, and state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City), will continue their candidacies.

Rosendale becomes the third House member to announce that he would not be seeking re-election only to change course and run again. The others are Reps. Pat Fallon (R-TX) and Victoria Spartz (R-IN). Rep. Mark Green (R-TN), who recently announced his own retirement, also may be in the process of changing his mind. The House open-seat count now recedes to 48. If Rep. Green decides to file, the number drops to 47. Once the three special elections are held, the total number of House open seats will reduce further to 44.

NY-1: Former State Senator Drops Challenge — New York former state Sen. Jim Gaughran (D) announced that he is ending his congressional challenge to freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) after seeing the new redistricting map that made Long Island’s 1st District more Republican. In his exit, Gaughran endorsed former CNN anchor John Avlon (D). Also in the 1st District Democratic race are 2020 congressional nominee Nancy Goroff and ex-congressional staff member Kyle Hill. Rep. LaLota is favored for re-election.

It’s a Trump Sweep in Nevada; Williamson Ends Her Campaign;
Close Special Election Poll in NY-3;
WA-5’s McMorris Rodgers to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 9, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump sweeps in Nevada.

Nevada Caucus: A Trump Sweep — Former President Donald Trump, as expected, won almost unanimous support last night at the Nevada Republican Caucuses where the state’s 26 delegates are apportioned. Trump will be awarded all of the state’s national convention delegates. Reports of high turnout around the state are numerous. A complete report will be forthcoming when the final results are formally released.

Marianne Williamson: Draws Campaign to a Close — After placing behind the “None of These Candidates” ballot line in the Nevada primary, Democratic presidential candidate Marianne Williamson suspended her national campaign reducing the field to President Joe Biden and US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN). With the president recording a mean average of 93 percent in the last two primaries, it is already a foregone conclusion that Biden will clinch the Democratic nomination no matter how long Phillips remains an active candidate.

House

NY-3: Another Close Special Election Poll — Siena College, conducting a congressional poll for the Newsday publication (Feb. 3-6; 694 likely NY-3 voters) finds a tight special election race to replace expelled US Rep. George Santos (R).

The ballot test gives former US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) a 48-44 percent edge over Republican Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip. A second survey, from Emerson College (Feb. 4-5; 742 likely NY-3 voters; multiple sampling techniques), reported a similar result: Suozzi leading 52-48 percent when respondents were pushed for a choice between the two candidates. Previously, Emerson conducted a survey in mid-January (Jan. 13-15; 975 registered NY-3 voters; multiple sampling techniques) again finding Suozzi holding a similarly small 45-42 percent edge.

All of this data suggests that the Feb. 13 special election contest is within the polling margin of error and will come down to a turnout battle between the Democratic and Republican teams. The survey research suggests the race is close enough that the side doing a better job getting their voters to cast a ballot will claim the seat in the special election.

WA-5: Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) to Retire — Another House member has joined the retirement list. Ten-term Washington US Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane), the House Energy & Commerce Committee chair, announced yesterday that she will not seek re-election later this year. In a long statement that thanks and extolls the virtues of her eastern Washington constituents, McMorris Rodgers formally announced her political intentions.

The open seat count now returns to 47, accounting for Rep. McMorris Rodgers retiring and Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) changing her mind about not seeking re-election. Within the group, 24 Democrats are not seeking another term in the House, and the Republican number now grows to 22. The new Alabama redistricting plan creates an open seat that begins in Montgomery and stretches to Mobile.

The 5th District of Washington occupies the furthermost eastern part of the state from Canada to Oregon and is anchored in the city of Spokane. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates WA-5 as R+17. In the 2020 election, former President Donald Trump won the district by a 53-43 percent margin. The Daily Kos Elections site statisticians rank the district as the 56th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. We can expect a crowded jungle primary in August leading to a general election where the Republican candidate should be favored.

Biden Sweeps SC Amid Low Turnout; Sen. Hawley Up 13; Sen. Bob Menendez Can’t Escape Single-Digit Support;
Sen. Bob Casey Jr.’s Strong Showing

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 5, 2024

President

President Joe Biden

South Carolina: Biden Romps in Dem Primary — President Joe Biden claimed Saturday’s South Carolina Democratic presidential primary, capturing an almost unanimous vote share. Biden recorded a 97 percent support figure over author Marianne Williamson (2.1 percent) and Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips (1.7 percent). Not surprisingly, the president swept all 55 of the state’s national Democratic delegate votes and placed first in each of the Palmetto State’s 46 counties.

Turnout, however, was extremely low with only about 131,000 ballots being cast. The unofficial count represents just 24 percent of the number of voters when compared to the 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary. The president was virtually unopposed in terms of the campaign efforts from Williamson and Phillips; therefore, it is not surprising to see a low participation rate. Still, three-quarters of the past electorate failing to return in 2024 does suggest a lack of enthusiasm for the pending national election.

Next, the candidates move to the Nevada primary on Tuesday where a similar result is expected. Unlike the Republicans, the Democratic primary is a delegate-apportionment event, so all candidates will be on the ballot. On the Republican side, the Nevada delegates will be awarded from the accompanying caucus events scheduled two days later, on Feb. 8. GOP candidate Nikki Haley chose to enter the primary and not the caucus, so former President Donald Trump is virtually assured of a Nevada delegate sweep.

Senate

Missouri: Sen. Hawley Up 13 — Emerson College released the first Missouri polling results of the new year. In the state’s US Senate campaign, the Emerson poll (Jan. 3-28; 1,830 registered Missouri voters; multiple sampling techniques) yields Sen. Josh Hawley (R) a 43-30 percent lead over attorney and Afghan/Iraq War veteran Lucas Kunce (D).

In 2022, Kunce ran for the Senate and performed well on the fundraising circuit, raising $5.7 million, but lost the Democratic nomination to philanthropist Trudy Busch Valentine, who was a late entry into the race. He now returns in better position to win the party nomination and has already almost equaled his 2022 fundraising total but remains a severe underdog to Sen. Hawley in a state where the Biden national campaign is sure to concede.

Therefore, considering Sen. Hawley’s incumbency and the political winds blowing against the Democrats in the Show Me State, this race is not likely to become a battleground Senate contest.

New Jersey: Sen. Menendez Again Languishing in Single Digits — Madison, New Jersey-based Fairleigh Dickinson University went into the field to test the Garden State’s Democratic electorate pertaining to the upcoming US Senate race. The survey (Braun Research conducting; Jan. 21-28; 504 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) projects US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) to be opening a double-digit lead over New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy of 32-20 percent, while indicted incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez can outpace little-known labor union official Patricia Campos-Medina by only a single point, as he again polls under 10 percent.

According to the just-released Federal Election Commission year-end campaign finance reports, both Rep. Kim and Murphy held $2.7 million cash-on-hand at the end of 2023. Largely due to funds raised before being indicted, Sen. Menendez has just over $6.1 million in his campaign account.

The New Jersey primary is June 4. At this point, Sen. Menendez maintains that he is running for re-election, but a final decision from him will be likely be made just before the March 25 candidate filing deadline.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Again Posts Double Digit Lead — Franklin & Marshall College, a regular Pennsylvania pollster, just released their latest statewide research iteration. The survey (Jan. 17-28; 1,006 registered Pennsylvania voters; live interview) sees Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) again posting a sizable lead over former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R). The ballot test gives Sen. Casey a 12-point advantage, 47-35 percent. This counters Susquehanna Polling & Research’s findings in their Pennsylvania poll, taken partially within the same sampling period, that showed only a four-point separation between the two candidates.

The F&M result is more consistent with other released polls since mid-December. The Bullfinch Group saw a 15-point Casey margin, while Quinnipiac University projected a 10-point split. The Pennsylvania Senate race could become a top-tier contest assuming the presidential race here remains close in polling. In both the presidential and Senate contests, however, the Democratic candidate maintains the edge.

Surprising New Hampshire Numbers

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 18, 2024

President

New Hampshire citizens at a town hall meeting at Hillside Middle School in Manchester. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

New Hampshire Polling Snapshot: Two Candidates Tied — The American Research Group has released companion New Hampshire primary polls the results of which are a bit surprising for both parties.

The ARG survey (Jan. 12-15; 600 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; 406 Republican voters; 194 Independent voters; live interview) sees former President Donald Trump and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley now tied as the candidates turn the corner toward the Granite State primary on Jan. 23. Both candidates were drawing 40 percent support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and now-ex presidential contender Vivek Ramaswamy were attracting only four percent apiece.

New Hampshire has been Trump’s weakest polling state among the pre-Super Tuesday primary and caucus entities. In the ARG polling series, Haley’s support has grown from 29 percent in their Dec. 20 survey to 33 percent in the Jan. 3 version, and now 40 percent. Trump, however, has also gained growing support indicated by his polling progression from 33, to 37, to now 40 percent.

ARG is the only pollster to show the race this close. The recent St. Anselm College, Emerson College, CNN/University of New Hampshire, and the Suffolk University/USA Today surveys project Trump with leads of 14, 16, 7, and 20 points, respectively.

The Democrats — The survey research firm also tested the Democratic presidential primary in a series of four polls beginning with their release on Dec. 20. The current study (Jan. 12-15; 600 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters; 452 Democratic voters; 148 Independent voters; live interview), finds US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) posting his best standing against President Joe Biden. According to the results, Biden, clearly identified as a write-in candidate on the questionnaire, would lead Rep. Phillips 58-28 percent, with author Marianne Williamson drawing three percent.

Based upon ARG’s four-poll series, Phillips has consistently increased his support from 17 percent on Dec. 20 to 21, 26, and now 28 percent in the Jan. 15 poll. The congressman has been advertising heavily in New Hampshire. In those same polls, President Biden increased his share from 51 to 58 percent, but has remained stagnant in the two most recent surveys.

Other pollsters don’t see Rep. Phillips as strong. In data released Jan. 9 and 11, Suffolk University/USA Today projects the president holding a whopping 64-6 percent lead over Phillips. The CNN/University of New Hampshire ballot test results agree. They record a 69-7 percent Biden advantage. Within this group only the latest Emerson College poll finds Rep. Phillips breaking into double digits. EC calculates a 49-16 percent spread in the president’s favor.

Similar to Haley on the Republican side, Rep. Phillips actually leads Biden among the Independent voters who plan to participate in the Democratic primary according to ARG. The Independent/Democrats break 46-32 percent for Phillips. The registered Democrats support President Biden, 67-22 percent.

With the Jan. 23 New Hampshire primary looming, we shortly will see the impact of Biden choosing to bypass the state because the Granite State did not agree to the proposed Democratic National Committee primary calendar changes. Because of that decision, voters wanting to support the president must now write in his name on the ballot.

The question remains as to whether Haley and Phillips getting close to Trump and Biden in their respective primary races in New Hampshire would have much of an effect upon the national nomination campaign. Could the state be the starting point for new trends, or will more favorable challenger results only prove a blip on the path to convincing national primary victories for both President Biden and former President Trump?

Chances are good that the latter scenario will occur. New Hampshire results don’t tend to be particularly reliable national predictors. For the Republicans since 1976, the non-incumbent winner of the Granite State primary has gone on to win the GOP nomination just four times. For the Democrats, they too see only four of the New Hampshire winners carrying through to become the party’s national standard bearer.

At this point, particularly when looking at other state polls around the country, it appears that the New Hampshire results are more likely an outlier than a new trend setter. Even so, we may be primed to see some interesting results come Tuesday.

GOP Presidential Field Narrows to Three; Second Redistricting Map Released in Louisiana; MD-2 Primary Opponent Challenges Incumbent

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks with supporters at a “Countdown to Caucus” campaign rally at the Country Lane Lodge in Adel, Iowa. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2024

President

Candidates: And Then There Were Three — After former President Donald Trump’s victory in the Iowa Caucuses on Monday, two more presidential candidates, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, suspended their campaigns.

Prominent candidates who previously dropped their bids are former Vice President Mike Pence, ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. The moves essentially leave the presidential field to Mr. Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Of the exiting candidates, Ramaswamy and Burgum both have endorsed Trump. No other former candidate to date has issued an endorsement.

New Hampshire: ARG Sees Trump & Haley Tied — A third installment of the American Research Group survey series (Jan. 12-15; 600 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; 406 Republican voters; 194 Independent voters; live interview) sees Trump and Haley now tied as the candidates turn the corner toward the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23. Both candidates were drawing 40 percent support. DeSantis and now-ex presidential candidate Ramaswamy fell well back to four percent apiece. Clearly New Hampshire is the only pre-Super Tuesday state where Trump fails to dominate.

New Hampshire: A Biden Warning Sign — The American Research Group also ran a companion poll for the Democratic presidential primary as it was surveying the Republican side. This study (Jan. 12-15; 600 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters; 452 Democratic voters; 148 Independent voters; live interview) finds US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) posting his best standing against President Joe Biden of any poll. According to these results, Biden, clearly identified as a write-in candidate on the questionnaire, would lead Rep. Phillips 58-28 percent, with author Marianne Williamson drawing three percent.

The New Hampshire primary is Jan. 23, but Biden chose to bypass the state because New Hampshire did not agree to the proposed Democratic National Committee primary calendar changes. Therefore, voters wanting to support the current president will have to write in his name.

House

Louisiana: Second Redistricting Map Released — On the first day of the special legislative session for congressional redistricting and other issues, state Rep. Mike Echols (R-Monroe) released a map that was seen as potentially the basis for an eventual final draw. Under the introduced plan, Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) would likely find himself as the odd man out as a new Baton Rouge-anchored 6th District that would be designed to elect an African American representative. The original map was sent back to the legislature for the purpose of increasing minority representation.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians have already released their calculations of all six districts in the proposed plan. Instead of the current 5R-1D plan, we would see a 4R-2D map, with the 6th District going from a partisan lean of 66.0R – 31.9D to one that favors the Democrats to the degree of 56.3D – 41.8R. Rep. Graves would be placed in the 5th District with fellow Republican incumbent Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start). In this map version, Letlow’s current constituency would comprise two-thirds of the new district, thus giving her a major advantage if the two ultimately face each other.

Now, a second plan has been submitted but two points are clear when comparing the two versions.

First, the legislature is clearly complying with the court order to draw a second majority minority seat within the six-member congressional delegation, and second, the targeted GOP House member likely to lose his seat is to make room for the new district is Rep. Graves. Once completed and passed into law, the new court-ordered map will almost assuredly mean a net gain of one seat for the Democrats in the 2024 election.

MD-2: Primary Opponent Emerges for Rep. Ruppersberger — Two-term state Delegate Harry Bhandari (D-Nottingham) announced that he will challenge 11-term US Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Cockeysville) for the Democratic nomination in the May 14 Maryland primary election. Bhandari does not have to risk his seat in the legislature because Maryland awards its state Delegates with four-year terms, and he was re-elected in 2022. Rep. Ruppersberger has yet to announce that he will run for re-election. The Maryland candidate filing deadline is Feb. 9.

MD-2 is a safe Democratic seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as D+11. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as the 62nd most vulnerable in the House Democratic Conference.

Trump, Biden Ahead by Wide Margins in New Poll; Navy SEAL Declares in Montana; Redistricting News from Alabama, North Carolina

New Hampshire GOP presidential poll results / WMUR TV graphic

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 29, 2023

President

New Hampshire Poll: St. Anselm College Releases Regular Poll — The New Hampshire Institute of Politics of St. Anselm College published their latest regular survey of Granite State voters (June 21-23; 1,065 registered New Hampshire voters; live interview) and sees former President Donald Trump gaining strength in the Republican primary while principal challenger Gov. Ron DeSantis is losing support. The partisan primary numbers find Trump leading Florida Gov. DeSantis, 47-19 percent with no other candidate exceeding six percent support.

On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden dominates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and author Marianne Williamson, 69-9-8 percent. These numbers exceed how the president is performing nationally. Since the state is unlikely to agree to moving their primary to comply with the new Democratic National Committee calendar, these numbers suggest that Biden could win a write-in campaign against his two intra-party challengers even if he doesn’t enter the official Democratic primary.

In hypothetical general election pairings, President Biden would lead both former President Trump and Gov. DeSantis with the same 49-40 percent spread. This data suggests there is less chance that New Hampshire will become a major general election Republican conversion target.

Senate

Montana: Retired Navy SEAL Declares Candidacy with NRSC Endorsement — Retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) announced his US Senate candidacy Tuesday. Immediately, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, with its chairman being Montana’s junior Sen. Steve Daines, endorsed Sheehy’s candidacy. The Montana Senate race is expected to be one of the hottest campaigns in the country as Republicans attempt to deny incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) a fourth term.

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), who is also expected to join the race, responded with a Tweet saying, “congratulations to Mitch McConnell and the party bosses on getting their chosen candidate. Now Washington has two candidates – Tim Sheehy and Jon Tester – who will protect the DC cartel.” Early polling shows Rep. Rosendale beginning the race with a substantial lead, so we can expect both a hot general election campaign, and an equally tough Republican nomination contest next year in Big Sky Country.

House

Alabama: Governor Calls Special Redistricting Session — To comply with the US Supreme Court ruling on the Alabama racial gerrymandering case that went against the state, Gov. Kay Ivey (R) said that she will call a special redistricting session for the purposes of drawing a new map to comply with the decision. The legislature will report on July 17 to begin the process.

Since Alabama is a Super Tuesday state and is holding its regular primary on March 5, time is short to draw a new map and obtain the necessary judicial approvals. The ruling and new map is expected to give the Democrats an extra seat in the Alabama US House delegation that currently stands at 6R-1D.

SCOTUS: North Carolina Case Ruling — In an unsurprising 6-3 ruling, the US Supreme Court ruled against the state of North Carolina on the subject of redistricting. Legal analyst Derek Muller of the Election Law Blog describes the crux of the state’s argument as saying, “the state constitution or state judiciary cannot constrain the state legislature exercising power under the Elections Clause.” Predictably, the justices ruled that the judiciary does have the authority to involve itself in redistricting decisions but underscored that the Supreme Court has the power to restrain lower courts from taking too much power away from the legislative bodies.

Largely because the North Carolina state Supreme Court has already reconsidered its previous partisan gerrymandering decision, the high court confined itself to the judicial power question.

Miami Mayor Files Presidential Committee; Presidential Candidate Favorable vs. Unfavorable Ratings;
A 4th Dem Enters California Race; Montana Gov’s Primary Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 16, 2023

President

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez (R)

Francis Suarez: Miami Mayor Files Presidential Committee — As has been expected for some time, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez filed a presidential committee mid week with the Federal Election Commission and becomes now the tenth Republican candidate. Obviously a long shot who may be positioning himself as a potential vice presidential pick, Mayor Suarez would be attractive to Republicans as a candidate with potential national appeal to the Hispanic community.

YouGov Economist Poll: Mixed Results — The YouGov international online polling firm again conducted one of their extensive periodic surveys for The Economist publication (June 10-13; 1,500 US adults; online), and though a majority of respondents firmly believe former President Donald Trump should have been indicted over the classified documents issue, he would surprisingly still lead President Joe Biden by a percentage point in the national popular vote.

The respondents largely sour over the group of 11 tested potential presidential candidates, however. Only Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (49:30 percent favorable to unfavorable), Sen. Tim Scott (33:25 percent), and Vivek Ramaswamy (26:19 percent) found themselves with positive ratings.

Former Governor Chris Christie had the highest negative rating at 27:51 percent favorable to unfavorable. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence (36:53 percent), Sen. Joe Manchin (26:37 percent), ex-President Trump (43:53 percent), President Biden (45:52 percent), Marianne Williamson (19:24 percent), Gov. Ron DeSantis (41:46 percent), and former Ambassador Nikki Haley (33:34 percent) all followed in the upside-down category.

House

CA-45: Rep. Steel Draws Fourth Dem Challenger — Attorney Jimmy Pham became the fourth Democratic candidate to enter the 2024 congressional race hoping to challenge two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+5.

In addition to Pham, Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen, and attorneys Cheyenne Hunt and Aditya Pai are announced candidates. Community College Trustee Jay Chen, who held Rep. Steel to a 52-48 percent victory in 2022, is a potential re-match contender but has yet to make his 2024 political plans known.

Expect this to be a top Democratic target race. The 45th is one of four California Democratic seats that a Republican represents.

Governor

Montana: Gov. Gianforte to Face Primary Challenge — Without articulating a particular criticism against Gov. Greg Gianforte (R), state Rep. Tanner Smith (R-Lakeside) has announced that he will launch a Republican gubernatorial primary challenge.

Gov. Gianforte, whose job approval ratings are high, does not appear to be vulnerable to any Republican primary challenger. At this point, he would also be rated as a prohibitive favorite to win a second full term in the 2024 general election. The Montana primary is scheduled for June 4, 2024.

RFK Jr. Continues Strong Challenge to President Biden; Ramaswamy Still in It; Donnelly Won’t Run for Governor; AG Leads Gov Race in WA

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 15, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: New Polls — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. continues to mount a challenge to President Joe Biden, and three new Democratic primary polls were recently released, two national and one in California, providing new benchmarks. While Kennedy is not even within shouting distance of the president in any of the polls, they do, however, again largely show that the incumbent is not universally accepted within his own party.

The Issues & Insights TIPP poll (May 31-June 2; 1,230 registered voters likely to vote in a Democratic primary; online) finds President Biden topping Kennedy, 68-12 percent, with four percent going to author Marianne Williamson. The Suffolk University poll conducted for USA Today (June 5-9; 293 likely Democratic primary voters) projects Biden with only 58 percent support, while Kennedy captures 15 percent and Williamson six percent. Emerson College sampled the California electorate (June 4-7; 1,056 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques) and posts President Biden with a 72-17-7 percent advantage over Kennedy and Williamson in the Golden State primary.

While President Biden is secure for renomination, Kennedy is exceeding expectations in the early states, which might place him in position to run on the No Labels Party ticket that may be formed in April of next year.

Vivek Ramaswamy: Not Dropping Out — Media reports surfacing earlier this week that Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy was going to announce he was withdrawing from the race and endorsing former President Donald Trump at his Tuesday morning news conference in Miami proved erroneous. While Ramaswamy, who is well on his way to securing a debate podium at the first Republican presidential debate on Aug. 23, did not suspend his campaign, he did become the first candidate to say he would pardon Trump if elected president.

Governor

Indiana: Ambassador Donnelly Won’t Run for Governor — A former campaign manager for, and longtime associate of US ambassador to the Holy See Joe Donnelly (D) said speculation that Donnelly would return to Indiana to run for governor next year is false. The ambassador of the United States to the Holy See is the official representative of the United States of America to the Holy See, the leadership of the Catholic Church. The spokesperson indicated that the ambassador will continue to serve in his present post and not become a political candidate in 2024.

Prior to accepting the ambassadorship, Donnelly represented Indiana in both the House and Senate. He served three terms in the House before being elected senator in 2012. He was defeated for re-election in 2018. There was further speculation suggesting if he would return to Indiana to run for governor and that former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) would be appointed as the replacement ambassador.

Washington: AG Leads Open Gov Race — Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Northwest Progressive Institute (released June 9; 773 registered Washington voters), finds Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) leading the jungle primary with 25 percent support. Republican physician Robert Garcia is second with 17 percent backing followed by Richland School Board member Semi Bird (R) at 10 percent. Democrats Hillary Franz, the Public Lands Commissioner, and state Sen. Mark Mullett (D-Issaquah) trail with nine and eight percent, respectively.

Ferguson claims to operate his early campaign as an “exploratory committee,” but Washington has no such legal designation. Therefore, technically, Ferguson is an announced candidate as are the others. Gov. Jay Inslee (D) is not seeking a fourth term next year. The jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024. The top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation and percentage attained will advance into the general election.

Democratic Primary Poll Numbers; D’Esposito Draws Initial Opponent; Military Doc Announces for House; 17 Candidates for RI-1 Seat

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 28, 2023

President

Fox News Poll: First Democratic Primary Numbers — Fox News released the results of their current poll (conducted by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R); April 21-24; 1,004 US registered voters; 392 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview), which looks to be the first national survey testing the Democratic presidential nomination campaign featuring President Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and author Marianne Williamson.

In a contest most believe will not be much competition for the presidency, Biden reaches only 62 percent among the Democratic partisans, a number viewed as low for an incumbent within his own party. Kennedy records 19 percent support, while Williamson is the choice of nine percent.

House

NY-4: Rep. D’Esposito Draws Initial Opponent — New York freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) was the biggest upset winner in the 2022 election. He captured a Long Island-anchored 4th District that the FiveThirtyEight organization rates as D+10, which is tied with California Rep. David Valadao’s (R) CA-22 as the most Democratic seat that elected a Republican to the US House.

Rep. D’Esposito has now drawn his first re-election opponent. Attorney and two-time congressional candidate Pat Maher (D) yesterday announced that he will again run for Congress. It is likely, however, that the local Democratic leadership will recruit and support a stronger candidate once the election cycle progresses.

NC-13: Military Physician Announces for House — Surgeon and Air Force Reserve Col. Josh McConkey (R), who is also an adjunct professor at Duke University, announced that he will challenge freshman North Carolina Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Raleigh) in the state’s 13th District.

The challenger field has largely been held in check so far because it is apparent that the North Carolina legislature will redraw the current court-drawn congressional map. This should make the swing 13th CD more Republican. The 2022 nominee, businessman Bo Hines (R), who lost to Nickel 52-48 percent, is likely to also enter the Republican primary.

RI-1: Now, There Are 17 — Lincoln Town Councilmember Pamela Azar became the 17th Democrat to enter the special election campaign to replace Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence), who is expected to resign from the House on June 1. Gov. Dan McKee (D) has already said he will call the special primary election for Sept. 5. The special general will then be scheduled concurrently with the regular municipal elections on Nov. 7.

In a 1st District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+32, Rep. Cicilline’s successor will be determined in the huge Democratic primary. Within the field are Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos, six sitting state legislators, two local officials, and a former White House aide.

Presidential Data Points; Williamson Challenges Biden; Dems Look for Cruz Challenger; Slotkin’s Senate Track; Wilson to Announce for Louisiana Governor’s Race?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 2, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump; Florida Gov. Ron Desantis

Emerson College Poll: National Data Reveals Interesting Underlying Points — Emerson College is reporting the results of their latest national survey (Feb. 24-25; 1,060 registered US voters; interactive voice response system & online panel) and while some of the results are consistent with other polling – former President Trump leading Gov. Ron DeSantis and the GOP field by a wide margin nationally; President Biden upside-down on the job approval question (44:50 percent) – other data points are proving more interesting.

First, in the general election ballot test, Trump records a 46-42 percent edge over President Biden nationally, which is one of his better polling showings. Second, in contrast to several other recent national polls, the 476 tested Democratic primary voters give overwhelming support, 71 percent, to President Biden as the 2024 party nominee. Interestingly, a whopping 85 percent within the youngest segment, those aged 18-34, are supportive of this position. Third, while Trump records a 55-25 percent national lead over Gov. DeSantis, the latter manages to gain among Hispanics, college educated Republican voters, GOP voters over 65, and Midwest respondents when compared with Emerson’s January poll.

Marianne Williamson: Biden’s First Dem Challenger Emerges — Author Marianne Williamson (D), who ran for President in 2020 but fared very poorly in that year’s Democratic nomination campaign, said she will formally announce her 2024 national campaign on Saturday. Williamson will not become a major factor in the race, but could earn some delegates in New Hampshire if the state fails to adhere to the Democratic National Committee schedule and, as a result, President Biden decides not to enter the state’s primary. Otherwise, a Williamson campaign will be a non-factor.

Senate

Texas: New Democrat Potential Candidate Emerging — Democratic leaders have been attempting to recruit a strong opponent for Sen. Ted Cruz (R) as he seeks a third term next year, and most of the early speculation has centered around former HUD Secretary, presidential candidate, and ex-San Antonio mayor, Julian Castro, and US representative and former NFL football player Colin Allred (D-Dallas). With neither man so far jumping into the race, statements from Texas Democratic Party chairman Gilberto Hinojosa, as reported in the Daily Kos Elections blog, suggest that outgoing Houston mayor and former veteran state Rep. Sylvester Turner may be moving toward becoming a candidate.

Democrats are expected to make a run at Sen. Cruz, but in a presidential election year with the turnout model almost assuredly favoring the eventual Republican presidential nominee the future Democratic candidate will be in a decided underdog position.

Michigan: Rep. Slotkin’s Senate Track — Three-term US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), as expected for weeks, formally announced that she will run for the Senate next year. In December, four-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) announced that she will retire at the end of this Congress. Rep. Slotkin, one of the more prolific fundraisers in the House, is already perceived as the favorite for the Democratic nomination and the general election.

Though there was much activity right after Sen. Stabenow announced that she would step down, only one elected official, Michigan School Board member Nikki Snyder (R), has actually declared her candidacy until Rep. Slotkin made her intention known.

While Rep. Slotkin has the inside track to the Democratic nomination and may not even face a significant intra-party opponent, several Republicans are still contemplating whether to run for the open Senate seat. Among them are former gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon, US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), and former Reps. Fred Upton, Mike Rogers, and Peter Meijer.

Prominent Michigan politicos who have said they will not run for the Senate include Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist (D), Attorney General Dana Nessel (D), Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D), US Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and John James (R-Farmington Hills), and state Senate Majority Whip Mallory McMorrow (D-Oakland and Wayne Counties).

House

CA-12: First Open-Seat Candidate Emerges — Bay Area Rapid Transit Board member Lateefah Simon (D) became the first individual to announce her candidacy for California’s new open 12th District, which encompasses the cities of Oakland and Berkeley. Twelve-term Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) is leaving the House to run for the Senate.

The 12th, a coalition majority minority seat, is the most Democratic district in this bluest of states. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it D+77, while the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean finds a 89.7D – 8.3R spread. Therefore, two Democrats advancing to the general election in what is expected to be a crowded all-party qualifying election field is a virtual certainty.

Potential candidates include state Sen. Nancy Skinner (D-Berkeley), Assemblywomen Mia Bonta (D-Oakland) and Buffy Wicks (D-Oakland), former Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf (D), and several local officials.

Governor

Louisiana: Democrats Uniting — While the candidate filing deadline for this year’s Louisiana governor’s race is still more than five months away, Democrats appear to already be uniting behind one candidate. Shawn Wilson is the outgoing state Secretary of Transportation who will be resigning from office on March 4. His official gubernatorial announcement will come soon after. Gary Chambers (D), who ran against Sen. John Kennedy (R) last year and was viewed as a potential candidate now says he will not run and is lining up behind Wilson. Term-limited Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) has already given his tacit endorsement to Wilson.

All of this likely means Wilson will surely advance into the general election runoff. Republicans will split their votes, thus ensuring that no candidate will reach the 50 percent mark in the Oct. 14 all-party jungle primary. The top two finishers will advance into the Nov. 18 general, meaning Wilson will await the outcome of a tight GOP gubernatorial nomination contest. Republicans will be favored to convert the Louisiana governorship, but Democrats are clearly doing their best to correctly position themselves for the autumn election.