By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 15, 2026
Primary
Voting in the hard-fought Louisiana Republican primary among Sen. Bill Cassidy, Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start), and State Treasurer John Fleming takes place tomorrow, and only two things appear certain. First, the race is headed to a runoff because none of the three candidates has majority support. Second, one contender will be eliminated, but polling has not definitively shown which one.
Ever since President Trump was re-elected, it became clear that he would seek to defeat Sen. Cassidy in Louisiana’s Republican nomination contest. Cassidy was one of two Republican Senators who voted to convict Trump in the 2021 impeachment trial, likely under the assumption that the outgoing president would never return to office.
True to form, Trump is now seeking political retribution. The only other Republican Senator on the 2026 ballot who voted to convict him in the impeachment trial is Maine’s Susan Collins. But because Republicans view her as their only chance of holding that seat, she has thus far avoided presidential opposition.
President Trump endorsed Rep. Letlow even before she officially entered the Senate race. The campaign’s true surprise, however, is State Treasurer and former Congressman Fleming’s strength. He has turned the Senate primary into a genuine three-way contest – a development few observers anticipated.
On the eve of the primary, it remains unclear which of the three candidates will be eliminated tomorrow, and it is entirely possible that Sen. Cassidy could even fail to qualify for the runoff election.
Four polls have been released since April 26 – from Emerson College, BDPC (a Louisiana polling firm), Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, and Quantus Insights. The two challengers have led in at least one of the recent surveys, while the incumbent has failed to place first.
The Emerson College poll (April 24-26; 455 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds a virtual two-way tie, with Sen. Cassidy trailing outside the survey’s margin of error. The ballot test shows Fleming leading Letlow, 28-27 percent, while Sen. Cassidy attracts only 21 percent support.
The BDPC poll (April 28-30; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) projects Letlow leading beyond the survey’s margin of error, with Sen. Cassidy and Dr. Fleming tied for second place but well behind. The ballot test favors Letlow, 33-21-21 percent.
The Fabrizio, Lee & Associates study (April 4-5; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; live interview and text) also finds Rep. Letlow leading, with Sen. Cassidy in second place and Dr. Fleming falling short of runoff qualification. The Fabrizio ballot test posts a 32-26-21 percent split.
The most recent survey, from Quantus Insights (May 6-7; 1,015 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; online), paints yet another distinctly different picture. Here, Rep. Letlow leads with 42 percent support, the strongest showing for any candidate in the recent polling, though still well below the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Thus, despite Letlow’s sizable advantage, the Quantus numbers still point toward a secondary election.
Dr. Fleming places second with 30 percent support in the Quantus result, while Sen. Cassidy trails badly at just 20 percent among Republican primary voters.
The cumulative results of these polls suggest that Rep. Letlow is likely to qualify for the second round, while it remains a toss-up whether Sen. Cassidy or Dr. Fleming will join her in the runoff. This is a rare situation in which, on the eve of a primary election, it is uncertain whether an incumbent will even advance to the runoff.
One area in which Sen. Cassidy leads is campaign resources. Through the April 26 pre-primary reporting period, he had raised $13.3 million and retained more than $5.5 million for the final stretch before the primary. By comparison, Dr. Fleming raised $11.2 million, including $9.6 million from individuals other than himself, while Rep. Letlow has raised just under $4.4 million.
Since the 2026 election has thus far proved to be turnout rather than persuasion driven, Sen. Cassidy using his financial advantage to deploy his vote base to the maximum degree will greatly improve his chances of securing a runoff position.
With inconsistent polling results over a prolonged period, virtually anything could happen tomorrow. The runoff election is scheduled for June 27.