Category Archives: Special ELection

GA-14 Runoff: Republican Fuller Wins

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 8, 2026

GA-14

Local District Attorney and Air National Guard officer Clayton Fuller (R) / Facebook photo

Republicans scored a special election victory in Georgia last night as local District Attorney and Air National Guard officer Clayton Fuller (R) defeated retired Army Brigadier General Shawn Harris (D) with a 56-44 percent victory margin.

The Fuller win was expected since Georgia’s 14th Congressional District is the Republican’s safest Peach State seat, but the victory margin was weaker than what we have typically seen from this region.

There are two principal reasons for the lower GOP vote spread. First, the 2024 redrawn District 14 is not quite as solid as the seat to which resigned Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) was initially elected and, second, the latest available Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports (pre-election March 18 filing) reveal that Gen. Harris outspent Fuller by a margin of almost 6:1, translating into a $6 million-plus effort for the Democratic candidate.

Georgia’s 14th District covers 10 counties (nine full, and just under 18 percent of Cobb County) in the northwest corner of the Peach State, bordering Tennessee on the north and Alabama to the west. Fuller carried nine of the 10 counties, but lost Cobb County by a significant margin. In order to maximize GOP strength in other districts, the 2024 redistricting map added Democrats from Cobb County to the already Republican-rich 14th, which helped pull Gen. Harris closer.

With the most recent map adding Democrats to the district, expect Rep-Elect Fuller’s future margins to be strong, but not as overwhelming as the previous voter history indicates.

The runoff produced a projected 131,000-plus voters, which is about average for a special general election. In comparison, turnout in the 2024 congressional election during the most recent presidential election featured 378,205 voters. In the 2022 midterm, 258,351 voters participated, or about 32 percent under the presidential election turnout.

The filling of the Georgia US House seat means the open-seat number for the next election recedes to 61. On April 16, New Jersey’s 11th District will be filled in that state’s commensurate special general election thus reducing the open seat count to 60 and bringing the full House to 434 members. The final special election could end on either June 2 or Aug. 4 in California, as voters will choose a replacement for the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R).

The Golden State uses a jungle special election format. If a candidate receives majority support in the first election, the individual is elected outright. If not, the top two finishers advance to a special general election.

The New Jersey election is expected to next week produce a Democratic win for former congressional staff member Analilia Mejia. She will replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D), who resigned the congressional seat after winning the statewide election in late 2025.

The California special election is largely a battle between former state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) and state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City), though Democrat Audrey Denney is also on the ballot. The winner will have a short tenure in the House and be simultaneously cast into a general election for a vastly different 1st District under the new California redistricting map.

In actuality, the Golden State candidates will be running in two districts on the same day. One election will be to fill the current term in the previous 1st District, while the other is the regular jungle primary in the new 1st CD.

California’s 1st District:
A Tale of Two Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 23, 2026

House

Northern California’s 1st Congressional District. See interactive map at Dave’s Redistricting App.

A confusing political situation is present in northern California as several more candidates than expected have filed for both the special election to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) and the regular election.

Redistricting has caused most of the confusion. The special election will occur in the 1st District to which Rep. LaMalfa was last elected while the regular term 1st District election will be held in the post-redistricting version. Though the field of candidates is largely the same for both campaigns, the two 1st Districts are political opposites.

Several surprising moves have been made. First, term-limited state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) announced early that he would run in the special election from the district that favors Republicans (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 60.2R – 37.7D), but he remained uncommitted about running for the full term in the Democratic 1st (DRA partisan lean: 55.2D – 44.1R).

It was thought that when Gallagher announced, he would have little competition and win the seat outright on June 2 and serve half a year in the House. The leading Democrat, it was believed, would not want to risk losing in the Republican 1st, which might potentially weaken his chances for the regular term.

The redistricted 1st CD was drawn for state Sen. Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County), who at the time the redistricting referendum was moving through the legislature was state Senate President. Like Gallagher in the Assembly, Sen. McGuire was also ineligible to seek re-election to his current position. His price for getting the redistricting referendum through the Senate – the Democrats have a super majority but with no votes to spare – was a 1st District draw where he would run and be favored to win.

Since the map drawers shifted Democratic voters from Reps. Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael) and Mike Thompson’s (D-St. Helena/Napa) 2nd and 4th Districts while adding Sen. McGuire’s home county of Sonoma, the 1st was transformed into a Democratic CD. Therefore, it was initially expected that Gallagher would not enter the regular election and McGuire would not enter the special.

The next two surprising political moves occurred just before the candidate filing deadline expired on March 11. Gallagher actually entered the regular term race and McGuire decided to become a candidate in the special election. Both moves are curious, especially for McGuire.

While a Republican winning the new 1st District that now stretches from the Napa wine country east to the Nevada state line may not be impossible in a favorable election year, it will still be very difficult and especially so when national trends favor the Democrats. But, with few options, Gallagher, who is favored to win the special election, had little to lose by trying since the special election victory would only give him a maximum of six months in Congress.

The more surprising move — and a new poll suggests that Mr. McGuire may not be as strong as initially believed — was the former Senate President entering the special election in the Republican district. Though he should be the regular election favorite in a district he basically drew himself, losing the special election would likely pierce his aura of invincibility.

To complicate matters further, another Democrat — non-profit organization agriculture consultant and frequent candidate Audrey Denney — also filed for both elections. Her presence in the special election could have a significant effect.

In the special, all candidates are placed on one ballot, and should a contender receive majority support, the individual would be elected outright. If no one reaches the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers regardless of political affiliation will advance to an Aug. 4 runoff election.

Therefore, having another credible Democrat in the special election changes the campaign. Now it will be more difficult for Gallagher to reach 50 percent because Denney could attract some Republican agriculture votes, but she also decreases McGuire’s percentage because she will capture more than a few Democratic votes.

For the regular term, all candidates are again on the same ballot, and on the same day (June 2 regular election primary day) for both elections. In the regular, the top two finishers, presumably Sen. McGuire and Assemblyman Gallagher, will advance to the general election irrespective of percentage attained.

A new poll from David Binder & Associates for the McGuire campaign tested the new 1st District and the result is underwhelming for their client. The survey (Feb. 24-28; 700 likely CA-1 regular term voters; live interview, online, & text) finds McGuire topping Assemblyman Gallagher by a slight 33-30 percent margin with Denney attracting a credible 18 percent.

With so many moving parts and all candidates having some disadvantages in at least one of the two 1st Districts, northern California’s tale of two races promises to feature some very interesting campaigns and results.

Georgia, Mississippi Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 11, 2026

GA-14 Special Election

GA-14 lies in the northwest corner of Georgia. To see an interactive version of this map, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App.

The special election to replace resigned Rep. Margorie Taylor Greene (R) ended as expected with the top two finishers advancing to an April 7 runoff election from the field of 17 candidates. All contenders were placed on the same ballot irrespective of political party affiliation. Since no one received majority support, advancing to a runoff election is required under Georgia election procedure.

Democratic retired Army Gen. Shawn Harris, who spent over $4 million in his campaign on top of spending more than $3.5 million against Rep. Greene in the 2024 election cycle, finished first but with only 37.3 percent of the vote. Local district attorney Clay Fuller, who had President Trump’s endorsement, finished a close second with 34.9 percent, or 2,853 votes behind Gen. Harris.

Though last night’s Democratic share is better than 14th District historical trends suggest (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 69.2R – 28.9D; Trump ’24: 68.1 – 31.3 percent; Greene ’24: 64.3 – 35.6 percent), the Shawn Harris first-place finish should not be considered so unusual.

Of the 17 candidates on the ballot, only three were Democrats. Considering the Harris campaign’s huge spending figure and not splitting the Democratic vote base among a large field, it was clear that the leading Democrat would at least qualify for the runoff if not finish first. A dozen Republicans were competing for the largest share of the Republican base. Adding the aggregate Republican versus Democrat votes, the GOP combined candidates received 60 percent of the turnout.

Total voter participation exceeded 115,000, which is very strong for a special congressional primary election. In terms of county vote share, a Republican candidate won six of the district’s ten counties while Gen. Harris claimed four. The latter man’s largest total (a 49 percent vote share) occurred in Cobb County, the district’s second largest population center. The strongest Republican vote share was in Murray County where Fuller recorded 48 percent.

Mississippi

No particular surprises from last night’s Mississippi primary results, as both the Republican and Democratic primaries finished as expected.

In the Senate race, incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), as predicted, easily captured renomination with 81 percent of the GOP vote. Also as forecast, she will now face Lowndes County District Attorney Scott Colom who was an easy winner on the Democratic side. Colom scored a 73-18-8 percent victory over two minor opponents to claim the party nomination.

Sen. Hyde-Smith will now be a heavy favorite in the general election. In terms of voter turnout, approximately 9,000 more Republicans than Democrats voted in the statewide intra-party elections.

Turning to the House, Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/Tupelo) and Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson) were unopposed for renomination.

In the 1st District, Rep. Kelly will now face the new Democratic nominee, attorney Cliff Johnson who defeated state Rep. Kelvin Buck (D-Holly Springs) with 64 percent of the vote. In a district with a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean of 63.9R – 35.0D (Trump: ’24: 67.9 – 30.8 percent; Kelly ’24: 69.8 – 30.2 percent), the Congressman becomes a prohibitive favorite in his quest to secure a seventh term.

Agribusinessman and investor Michael Chiaradio was also unopposed in the Democratic primary. Like Rep. Kelly, Congressman Guest must be rated as the clear favorite to secure the general election. The DRA partisan lean for District 3 is 60.7R – 38.3D (Trump ’24: 64.1 – 34.9 percent; Guest ’24: 100 percent).

The 2nd District Democratic primary had drawn some national attention as former congressional staffer Evan Turnage returned to Mississippi and was challenging veteran Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton). Also as predicted, Rep. Thompson was an easy winner, recording an 86-13 percent landslide victory.

The 2nd District is the state’s lone Democratic CD and has a strong partisan voter history. The DRA partisan lean here is 63.8D – 35.5R (Harris ’24: 59.7 – 39.3 percent; Thompson ’24: 62.0 – 38.0 percent). Like Mississippi’s three other congressional incumbents, Rep. Thompson is a lock to win again in November.

Fourth District incumbent Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula) was also a big winner in his Republican primary. The Congressman topped former congressional aide Sawyer Walters in a landslide 84-16 percent vote count. He will have little trouble overcoming the new Democratic nominee, state Rep. Jeffrey Hulum (D-Gulfport) who recorded a 57 percent win over two intra-party contenders.

The 4th District DRA partisan lean is 67.0R – 31.7D (Trump ’24: 70.7 – 28.2 percent; Ezell ’24: 74.0 – 26.0 percent). Obviously, this seat is the strongest Republican congressional district in one of the party’s most loyal states.

Mississippi Primary &
Georgia Special Election Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Primary season continues today in Mississippi as candidates are vying for party nominations in the US Senate campaign and all four US House districts. The special jungle primary to replace resigned Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) is also scheduled for today.

Mississippi

Mississippi state flag

Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is on the ballot for a second full term, and she is expected to easily win renomination tonight over physician Sarah Adlakha. Mississippi is a runoff state, but the Senator will certainly eclipse the 50 percent-plus-one vote threshold to secure renomination.

Hyde-Smith was initially appointed to the Senate in 2018 after then-Sen. Thad Cochran (R) resigned due to health issues. She defeated former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Congressman Mike Espy in the 2018 special election, and then again in the 2020 regular election for a full term.

Tonight, Lowndes County District Attorney and former municipal judge Scott Colom is expected to win the Democratic primary, and he too should avoid being forced into a runoff election. He faces two minor Democratic opponents. Sen. Hyde-Smith will be a clear favorite in the general election.

In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/ Tupelo) is unopposed for renomination. Two Democrats, ex-state Rep. Kelvin Buck and attorney Cliff Johnson are competing for their party nomination. Since only two contenders are on the ballot, one of them will win tonight. MS-1 is a heavily Republican district, so Rep. Kelly is a prohibitive favorite in November.

The 2nd District Democratic primary is likely to attract the most electoral attention tonight. Here, veteran Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton) seeks renomination to an 18th term from the Mississippi Delta CD. His opponent is former congressional aide Evan Turnage, who returns to his home district in one of about a dozen attempts around the country for a younger Democrat attempting to unseat a veteran House member in the party primary. Turnage is a credible candidate, but Rep. Thompson should easily win renomination tonight and sail through another general election.

The 3rd District race is set. Neither Rep. Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson), on the ballot seeking a fifth term, nor Democrat Michael Chiaradio have primary opposition tonight. MS-3 is also a safe Republican seat, so Rep. Guest will cruise to re-election in November.

Turning to the gulf coast 4th District, we see competition in both party primaries. Rep. Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula) is running for a third term and faces only former congressional aide Sawyer Walters in the GOP primary.

Three Democrats are vying for the opportunity of challenging Rep. Ezell in the general election: state Rep. Jeffrey Hulum (D-Gulfport), business consultant Ryan Grover, and military veteran Paul Blackman comprise the party’s candidate field. Rep. Hulum will be favored to win outright tonight, but Rep. Ezell should have little trouble holding the seat in the November general election.

GA-14

To see an interactive map of the Georgia Congressional Districts and GA-14, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App.

The initial election to replace Rep. Taylor Greene is being held today. A total of 15 Republicans are on the ballot along with three Democrats, a Libertarian Party member and an Independent. If one of the candidates receives an absolute majority, the individual is elected outright. If no one reaches the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers irrespective of political party affiliation will advance to an April 7 runoff election.

The eventual special election winner will then serve the balance of the current term. Candidate filing has already closed for the regular term, so it is possible we could see a competitive regular election primary on the Republican side in May regardless of how the special concludes.

For the Democrats, the question to be answered tonight is whether their strongest candidate, retired Army General Shawn Harris, qualifies for the runoff or if two Republicans will advance. The GOP dominates this district, the safest Republican seat in Georgia, but with the vote split among so many party candidates, it will be possible for Gen. Harris to coalesce most of the Democratic vote and secure a runoff position. Doing so might allow him to even finish first.

Gen. Harris has raised and spent $4 million in this race. Running against Rep. Greene in 2024 (he spent $3.5 million but received only 36 percent of the vote), Gen. Harris has become a vacuum for Democratic and left of center campaign dollars. Those contributions have continued for the special election, so we will see what effect the large expenditures will have upon the final vote.

Regardless of what happens tonight, Gen. Harris will return for the regular election. He is unopposed for the party nomination later this year.

For the Republicans, the leading candidates appear to be Lookout Mountain Judicial Circuit District Attorney Clay Fuller who has President Trump’s endorsement. Other contenders sure to attract significant votes are former Paulding County Commissioner Brian Stover, state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton), and Dalton City Councilman Nicky Lama.

March 3rd Primary Preview – Part II

2026 Texas Congressional Districts Map. Click here or on the above map to see an interactive version at: Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Special Election

Yesterday, we previewed the Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas Senate primaries. Today, we look at 20 of the Lone Star State’s 38 congressional districts that will see political action in today’s primary. Texas is a 50 percent runoff state, so expect many of the succeeding campaigns to advance into a May 26 secondary election featuring the respective top two finishers.

In Texas’ 2nd District, Congressman Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) has primary opposition from state Rep. Steve Toft (R-The Woodlands). While Toft has good grass roots support from the conservative wing of the party, and even an endorsement from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Rep. Crenshaw has a major advantage in financial resources.

Though the Crenshaw victory margin will likely be lower than in the past, he is still favored to survive this challenge and win re-nomination.

The 8th District is open because Congressman Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) is retiring after two terms. This is one of the seats that will possibly elect outright a new Republican nominee who will eventually win the general election. The former America First Principles Institute attorney, Jessica Steinmann, is in the political driver’s seat. She has all the key endorsements and very little opposition, a surprisingly easy run for a safe Republican open seat.

The 9th CD is a Texas redistricting map new creation. This is an eastern Harris County seat that will go Republican in the general election. We will likely see a runoff here between Trump endorsed Alexandra Mealer and state Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park).

Tenth District Congressman Michael McCaul (R-Austin) is retiring from the House after serving what will be 22 years when Congress adjourns in this session. In his place will be another Republican, but we will likely see two of the 10 Republican candidates advancing into a runoff election from tonight’s plurality vote total.

Republican attorney, Chris Gober who runs Elon Musk‘s Super PAC, is likely to be one of those participants. Possibly, businessman Ben Bius could be the other. This will be another race to watch closely in the May 26 Republican runoff.

In the South Texas 15th District, Democrats are hosting a primary with two candidates vying for the opportunity of challenging Congresswoman Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) in the general election. Regional award-winning singer Bobby Pulido is a heavy favorite to win the party nomination tonight over emergency room physician Ada Cuellar. The general election, even though the district favors the two-term Congresswoman, will be competitive in November.

Back in Houston, the 18th District features an endangered incumbent who may lose renomination tonight. Veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) is placed in the same district with the recently elected Christian Menefee, who won a special election on Jan. 31. The two are now vying for the regular term in the newly created 18th District in the 2025 Texas redistricting map.

Though Green represents much more of the current district than does Menefee (65 percent of the new district’s constituency compared to 26 percent), polling suggests that the younger man has the inside track tonight.

Lubbock GOP Congressman Jodey Arrington is retiring after this session of Congress, choosing not to seek a sixth term. His decision leaves another multi-candidate Republican primary battle that will likely end in a secondary runoff election.

Here in the 19th CD, agribusinessman Tom Sell has accumulated strong endorsements from the agriculture community along with raising the most money. He is likely to secure the first runoff position. Vying for second place appears to be Bienvenido organization head Abraham Enriquez, who has Gov. Greg Abbott’s endorsement, and Lubbock County Commissioner Jason Corley.

With Congressman Chip Roy leaving the House to run for Attorney General, his 21st San Antonio/Hill Country district is another of the 10 open Texas seats. Retired baseball player Mark Teixeira, who has President Trump‘s endorsement, faces a series of Republican opponents, including former Federal Election Commission chairman Trey Trainor.

It is clear that Teixeira has the advantage over his 11 opponents, but whether he can win outright or will advance to a runoff is the question that will be answered tonight.

The open 22nd District is unique. Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Richmond) is retiring, and his likely replacement is his identical twin brother, Trevor Nehls. The latter Nehls is a former Fort Bend County Constable. He is likely to win the Republican primary tonight without a runoff and is the odds-on favorite to replace his brother in the US House come November.

The 23rd District will be one of the seats that attracts the most attention tonight. Embattled incumbent Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) has been accused of having an extramarital affair with a staff member who later committed suicide through self-immolation, obviously a terrible and tragic story.

Gonzales was forced into a runoff in the 2024 election and survived by only a 354-vote margin. Firearms manufacturer Brandon Herrera, who held him to that small victory two years ago, is back for another run and certainly the controversy that engulfs Gonzales could well change the outcome of this particular election. Also in the race is former one-term Congressman Quico Canseco who has not been particularly active. Going to a runoff here is likely, which could spell the end of Gonzales’ congressional career.

The 28th District, which touches the Mexican border, appears headed to hosting another hotly contested general election. Veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) faces only minor opposition for the Democratic nomination but will see a top-level opponent in the general election. Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina is expected to clinch the Republican nomination tonight, thus kicking off what promises to be a hot general election.

Many in the Republican Party expected Cuellar to switch parties after President Trump pardoned him from federal bribery charges, but such proved wishful partisan thinking. Look for this race to be in tossup mode all the way to November in a district that President Trump carried, 57-42 percent.

Returning to Harris County, Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) sees sizable new territory in her Democratic 29th CD, and former state Representative and ex- Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson is opposing her for renomination.

Polling shows the Congresswoman ahead, but a minor third candidate creates the possibility that the first-place finisher, likely Rep. Garcia, is forced into a runoff. If so, all bets would be off for a May 26 secondary election. Irrespective of their nominee, the Democrats will hold the seat in November.

In Dallas County, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) is leaving her 30th District to run for the US Senate. This is another of the open seats that could be decided tonight. Mega church Senior Pastor Frederick Haynes is favored over opponents Barbara Mallory Carraway, a former state Representative and ex-Dallas City Councilmember, and fellow pastor Rodney LaBruce.

Winning the Democratic nomination in this 30th District is tantamount to clinching the general election from this urban district.

Turning to Central Texas, veteran 31st District Congressman John Carter (R-Round Rock) is facing a large number of Republican opponents (nine), but none seem able to coalesce a majority against the veteran lawmaker. Carter is expected to win outright tonight even though defeating so many opponents with a majority vote is always a formidable task.

Back in Dallas, the 32nd district is a newly created Republican seat in the 2025 redistricting map. The seat stretches from East Dallas almost to the Lake of the Pines in East Texas. This is a Republican primary battle, and we will likely see a runoff among two of three contenders: former minor presidential candidate Ryan Binkley, businessman Paul Bondar who ran for Congress in Oklahoma two years ago, and attorney Jace Yarborough, who has a strong list of endorsements including one from President Trump.

In the new 33rd District, which is self-contained in west Dallas County, freshman Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is choosing to seek re-election in this seat since incumbent Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) decided to retire.

In a surprise as candidate filing closed, former Congressman Colin Allred (D), who was expected to join the US Senate field, instead decided to run again for the House in the newly configured 33rd CD. This is another case where we may see an incumbent member defeated because Allred previously represented a part of this district and has enjoyed large leads in pre-primary polling and campaign resources.

Back in South Texas, the 34th District hosts a Republican primary with two candidates having the same surname. Former Congresswoman Myra Flores is again seeking to return to the House in this Brownsville anchored seat, and this time her main Republican opponent is attorney and Army veteran Eric Flores, who President Trump has endorsed. We will see which Flores wins the party nomination, but victory may require a runoff because six others are on the ballot.

The eventual GOP winner will challenge incumbent Vicente Gonzales in a hotly contested campaign from a newly drawn district that is much more Republican. In 2024, President Trump carried the new version of this southeast Texas CD that hugs the Gulf of America with 55 percent of the vote.

The new 35th District is anchored in South Bexar County (San Antonio) and then stretches into rural southeast Texas. Here, we see a crowded Republican primary with likely two people advancing to a runoff election, one of which is probably state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) who Gov. Abbott backs.

Local business owner Carlos De La Cruz (R), brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen), is a candidate in this district and has President Trump’s support. College professor Josh Cortez is another contender who could conceivably qualify for the GOP runoff. The eventual Republican nominee will be favored in the general election.

In Travis County, Congressman Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) will not seek a 17th term, yielding instead to two-term Rep. Greg Casar (D-Austin) because the two were paired in the new 37th CD. Without major opposition, Rep. Casar is a lock for renomination and re-election.

The Harris County-anchored 38th District is open because Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) is running for the Senate. This is yet another open Republican seat that has drawn multiple candidates. Among the 10 running for the GOP nomination, only one, Tomball School Board Member Michael Pratt, has won an election.

President Trump and many other Republican leaders have endorsed mortgage broker Jon Bonck. Expect the primary vote to yield a runoff. The eventual Republican nominee will be a lock for the general election.

March 3rd Primary Preview – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 2, 2026

Special Elections

Voters in three states will continue casting their ballots for tomorrow’s first-in-the-nation set of midterm primary elections. The three states are: Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas.

All three places feature runoff systems. In Arkansas and Texas, candidates must receive majority support in the primary or a secondary election follows. It is unlikely we will see federal election runoffs in Arkansas, but if we do, those associated contests will be held on March 31. Texas will host a series of federal runoffs on May 26, ending what will be a very long runoff cycle.

North Carolina has only a 30 percent vote threshold to secure nomination, so runoffs are few and far between. If a federal runoff proves necessary, that election will be held on May 12th.

Texas will host the major primary of the early voting domains. We will cover the Texas House races in tomorrow’s report because the state has 10 open US House seats and four incumbents who are in highly competitive campaigns. Today, we look at the dynamic Texas Senate race.

Sen. John Cornyn is in a tough Republican primary battle against Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). Tomorrow’s primary vote will almost certainly force a runoff election, probably between Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton. Therefore, the Republicans won’t likely identify their 2026 nominee until May 26.

On the Democratic side, a similarly robust battle has emerged between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). Polls have been inconsistent and both candidates can point to surveys posting them to a lead.

Regardless of who wins the Democratic primary, the Republicans will face an onslaught of campaign activity for the general election even though the Democrats have not won a Texas statewide election since 1994.

Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, the Lone Star State will host a premier general election Senate campaign.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is on the ballot seeking a fourth term. If he is re-elected in November and serves most of the succeeding term, Abbott will become Texas’ longest serving Governor in state history. He will secure renomination tomorrow. The likely Democratic winner is state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), but whether she reaches the 50 percent threshold is still open to question.

Congressman Chip Roy (R-Austin) is competing in the open Attorney General’s race and is leading in the polls. It is probable he will advance into the secondary runoff election,` most likely against state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston).

The North Carolina Senate race will be one of the premier contests in the general election, but the nominations appear set even before all votes are cast in tomorrow’s Tar Heel State primary.

Former Governor and ex-Attorney General Roy Cooper will be the Democratic nominee while former Republican National Committee chairman, and ex-North Carolina Republican Party chairman, Michael Whatley will capture the GOP nomination. Both will easily exceed the 30 percent support threshold to win their respective primaries.

Three House races are worth monitoring tomorrow night. In the state’s newly redrawn 1st District, which now favors Republicans to a much stronger degree, a five-person GOP primary has emerged with the eventual winner challenging two-term Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill).

Former Pentagon official Laurie Buckhout held Rep. Davis to a victory spread of less than two percentage points in a more favorable Democratic district during the previous election. She is one of the favorites to win tomorrow night. The other significant competitors are Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Currituck County), and Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse. Polling suggests that Buckhout has the edge over Sheriff Buck, but the outcome could be close.

In the Durham-Chapel Hill-anchored 4th CD in, two-term Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough) is working to repel a challenge from Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam who is backed by substantial outside money.

The two faced off, among others, in the 2022 Democratic primary when the seat was last open. Foushee, then a state Senator, outdistanced Allam by nine percentage points in that election. Rep. Foushee’s outside support has come in late, so the outcome remains a question mark though the Congresswoman is still regarded as at least a slight favorite.

Turning to western North Carolina, Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock/Asheville) faces a challenge from former Green Beret Adam R. Smith who claims to have over 3,000 campaign volunteers. He doesn’t have a great deal of money, however, showing only $66,524 raised through the Feb. 11 pre-primary financial disclosure report.

More action appears on the Democratic side, where three candidates have raised over $100,000 for their primary campaign. The fundraising leader is agribusinessman Jamie Ager who attracted more than $940,000 through the same Feb. 11th financial disclosure deadline.

The 11th CD carries a 51.9R – 45.8D partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. President Trump scored a 54-45 percent victory here in 2024. On the edge of competitiveness, this race could be one to watch in the general election.

In Arkansas, none of the state’s top office holders see major renomination competition. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) and Reps. Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro), Steve Womack (R-Rogers/Fayetteville), and Bruce Westerman (R-Hot Springs) are unopposed. Sen. Tom Cotton (R) and Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) face only minor opponents.

CA-1 Special Now Competitive

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, February 26, 2026

House

Former California state Senate President Mike McGuire

Northern California’s 1st District has been at the focal point of California congressional politics for the past eight months, and this week the CD attracts more political attention. A new candidate declared for the 1st District’s special election, and the individual’s decision to run for the short term is at least somewhat head scratching.

It was reported that former state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) announced his special election candidacy. His move brings political risk that need not be undertaken. If McGuire simply remained in the Senate and ran only for the regular term he would be considered a prohibitive favorite, but not so for the special election.

When Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) announced last August that he would convince the legislature to schedule a redistricting referendum to pass a congressional map in order to negate what a new Texas plan might do for Republicans, then-state Senate President McGuire became the central figure in delivering the two-thirds majority in his chamber necessary to schedule the special referendum election and provide support for Newsom’s bold move.

The voters had to approve the irregular redistricting plan because the process was usurping the California Citizens Commission map enacted in 2021. Therefore, both legislative and public approval were required.

Sen. McGuire, ineligible to seek re-election in 2026 because of state term limits, wanted to change the 1st District, which was safely Republican under the Commission map, into a Democratic seat that he could win. Hence, altering the 1st District to McGuire’s liking became the price for passing the mid-decade redistricting referendum legislation.

Instead of a 1st District under the Commission map that read 60.2R – 37.7D and occupied the territory in the northeastern corner of the state that Oregon and Nevada bordered, the new 1st is anchored in Sen. McGuire’s home county of Sonoma and encompasses Democratic territory in the outer Sacramento suburbs. The new 1st CD’s partisan lean is 55.2D – 44.1R.

On Jan. 6, seven-term 1st District US Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) suddenly passed away. His death leads to a special election that will be held concurrently with the state’s June 2 statewide primary election.

The first question the special election posed was whether the vote would be held in the 2021 version of the 1st CD or the new version. Because the special election would be for the purpose of filling the term that began in 2025, the 2021 map was determined as the correct venue.

Immediately, state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City), who, like Sen. McGuire is reaching the end of his allotted time in the legislature (in California, members can serve six-two year terms in the Assembly or three four-year Senate terms, or a combination not to exceed a combined 14 years), announced that he would compete in the special election. He has yet to state that he will run later this year in the new Democratic district.

Rather surprisingly, Sen. McGuire announced that he, too, will enter the special election. The move is questionable because the 2021 CD-1 is strongly Republican; therefore, he would be considered the underdog to Gallagher. Sen. McGuire would then turn around and seek election in the new 1st CD, regardless of the special election outcome.

The move adds political risk to McGuire’s personal congressional plan, especially since the special election winner will only serve a few months. Should McGuire lose to Gallagher in the special, the former’s air of invincibility for the new seat might be punctured and he will likely have adjusted some issue positions in his attempt to win in conservative territory that might hurt him when campaigning in the new liberal district.

Thus, his losing might make transitioning into the Democratic 1st District during the regular election more difficult. As a result, the move might give Gallagher or another Republican a better chance against McGuire in the regular election even though they will all compete in what should be a reliably new Democratic district.

Under California special election law, all candidates are placed on the same ballot in jungle primary form. Should a contender receive majority support in the first vote, the individual would be elected and immediately take office. If no one receives 50 percent or above, the top two finishers would advance to a runoff election on Aug. 4.

Candidate filing for the special election will conclude on April 9. Currently, the only other candidate to announce for the seat is non-profit organization consultant Audrey Denney (D).