Category Archives: Special ELection

NJ-11 Too Close to Call;
Georgia Rep. Loudermilk to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Friday, February 6, 2026

NJ-11 Special Primary

Candidate Analilia Mejia, former Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) staff member, currently leads the NJ-11 Democratic primary race by a slim 486 votes.

In a rare Thursday primary, voters in northern New Jersey’s 11th District went to the polls yesterday to begin the process of choosing a congressional replacement for Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) who was elected statewide in November.

The race is still too close to call. With approximately 6,000 votes remaining to be counted, a close finish is unfolding between political activist and former Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) staff member Analilia Mejia and former Congressman Tom Malinowski. At this writing, Mejia leads Malinowski by 486 votes.

The Democratic race was split among 11 candidates with outside funding coming in for and against several, thus splitting the vote among the top four finishers.

Former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski, who lost his seat in 2022 to current Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), led in the early part of the night until Mejia overtook him. Malinowski was under heavy attack for his stock transactions during his first two-term stint in the House, which may have cost him the primary election. Immigration and opposing the Trump Administration were the focal points of much of the political advertising.

Former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, who benefited from a Super PAC dedicated to supporting Lieutenant Governor candidates, is third, and Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, who had former Gov. Phil Murphy’s support, is taking a disappointing fourth since he was projected to finish higher.

With the ballots spread among so many candidates, a 486-vote lead looks larger within a universe of about 6,000 outstanding votes than it would if only two individuals were involved. It appears more of the remaining uncounted ballots come from Essex County where Mejia was strongest. Therefore, barring a stronger final push from Malinowski in Morris County where he is leading, the most likely outcome is Mejia holding on to claim the primary victory.

The eventual official Democratic winner now advances to the special general election where he or she will face Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway who was unopposed in last night’s Republican primary.

The Garden State’s 11th District lies in northern New Jersey and contains parts of Essex, Morris, and Passaic counties. The major population centers are the cities of Morristown, Broomfield, and Montclair.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean favors the Democrats by a 55.6D – 42.5R count. Kamala Harris carried the district with a 53.3 – 44.6 percent margin over President Trump. Therefore, the eventual Democratic winner is viewed as a heavy favorite for the April 16 special general election.

It remains to be seen if the Republicans will spend serious money in the special general if Mejia, a Sanders-Zohran Mamdani Democratic Socialist candidate, pulls through as now expected.

GA-11

Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-GA), saying that holding a congressional seat is a service and not a career, announced that he will not seek a 7th term in the House later this year.

Prior to being elected to Congress in 2014, Loudermilk served a total of eight years in the Georgia legislature. Over his six congressional elections, Loudermilk averaged a 69.6 percent voter support level.

A total of 55 House seats are open for the next election, including three currently in a special election cycle. Now, 31 of the open seats come from the Republican column, 19 from the Democratic side, and an additional five new seats have been created on new redistricting maps in California and Texas. Loudermilk is the 20th member who is opting to retire from elective politics. The remainder are running for a different office.

The open 11th District will remain in Republican hands, and a crowded GOP field will soon form. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district partisan lean favors Republicans, 62.1R – 35.5D. In 2024, President Trump defeated Kamala Harris here, 61.2 – 37.9 percent.

Georgia’s 11th CD lies northwest of Atlanta and contains some of the city’s outer suburbs. The district’s voting age population is 30.6 percent minority. It contains Barlow, Gordon, and Pickens counties, along with parts of Cherokee and Cobb counties. The district’s largest population centers are the cities of Marietta and Cartersville.

NJ-11: Special Primary Today

CD-11, Northern New Jersey / Dave’s Redistricting App

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, February 5, 2026

House

Voters in northern New Jersey go to the polls today to choose party nominees for the purpose of replacing Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D), who vacated this congressional district after winning her statewide election in November.

The real battle today is in the Democratic primary as 11 candidates are vying for the party nomination. The primary victor tonight will then likely claim the April 16 special general election.

Former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski is viewed as at least a slight favorite to win tonight’s Democratic election, though he has been under attack from his opponents particularly for his stock market success while a member of Congress.

Malinowski was elected to the House in 2018 and won a close re-election over the district’s current Congressman, Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), in 2020. After redistricting, which made the 7th District a touch more Republican, Kean was able to unseat the two-term incumbent in 2022. Rep. Kean was then re-elected in 2024 and will face a tough fight again later this year.

In today’s 11th District special election, Malinowski’s chief opponents are Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, venture capitalist Zach Beecher, Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett, and former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way.

Malinowski is the top fundraiser within the group, bringing in just over $1.1 million according to the Federal Election Commission pre-primary filing covering the period through January 16th. Gill, however, is not far behind with over $800,000 raised. The remaining group has all attracted between $400-$500,000. Since little difference in ideology exists among the candidates, the Democratic primary will likely be an Election Day turnout battle because early voting has not previously been a major factor in New Jersey voting.

For the Republicans, Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway is unopposed for the party nomination and will automatically advance into the mid-April special general election. For his part, Randolph has raised over $260,000, with just over $160,000 in his campaign treasury.

Depending upon tonight’s Democratic result, we will soon see whether the national Republican apparatus will spend significant money to boost Hathaway’s chances in the special general.

The 11th District lies in northern New Jersey and contains parts of Essex, Morris, and Passaic counties. The major population centers are the cities of Morristown, Broomfield, and Montclair.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean favors the Democrats by a 55.6D – 42.5R count. Kamala Harris carried the district with a 53.3 – 44.6 percent margin over President Trump. Of New Jersey’s nine Democratic congressional districts, the 11th ranked as Harris’ sixth-best performance against Trump. Statewide, her victory margin was 52.0 – 46.1 percent, so the 11th District exceeded her statewide showing by 1.3 percentage points.

The NJ-11 special will be the seventh such contest in House races since the current Congress began. Each party has held the seats it was risking, and the NJ-11 contest in April will very likely follow suit.

The next special election will occur in Georgia where the fight will be on the Republican side. The state’s 14th District, from which former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) resigned in early January, is the Republican’s safest Peach State CD. This election will occur on March 10.

Under Georgia election law, all candidates are placed on a jungle primary ballot. If a candidate scores majority support, the individual is elected outright. If no one reaches that threshold, the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation will advance to an April 7 runoff election.

The 14th District’s partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App: 69.2R – 28.9D) is overwhelmingly Republican, so the GOP will hold the seat. With 21 filed candidates, however, going to a runoff election is a virtual certainty.

The contest to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) will be held June 2 under an identical format to the Georgia structure. If a runoff election is necessary in that race, such is scheduled for Aug. 4.

NJ-11: Special Election Heating Up

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, January 21, 2026

House

New Jersey Congressional Districts map (click on image to see larger interactive map on Dave’s Redistricting Map.)

The New Jersey special election campaign is well underway with the major candidates launching attack ads against each other and, of course, President Trump.

Northern New Jersey voters will choose their congressional nominees on Feb. 5 to begin the process of replacing former Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) in the Garden State’s 11th Congressional District. Sherrill was sworn in as New Jersey’s Governor yesterday.

The real battle is in the Democratic primary, since the eventual party nominee will be a heavy favorite to win the seat in the special general election set for April 16. Eleven Democrats are actively campaigning, and the major contenders appear to be former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, ex-7th District Rep. Tom Malinowski, Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, and Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett.

Gill is attracting attention for his ad that calls out former Rep. Malinowski for making millions of dollars in stock transactions when he was in the House during the Covid pandemic. Prior to his defeat in 2022, the House Ethics Commission was investigating the Malinowski transactions and ruled that he should have reported his gains on mandatory financial disclosure statements.

The Malinowski campaign responds with an ad saying he will fight Trump and, as he says, “… the billionaires screwing people and the insurance companies denying coverage, [and] the big tech companies hurting our kids.” The former Congressman says he “can do this because I refuse to take corporate PAC money.”

The Malinowski campaign appears vulnerable to the stock transaction attacks because the very companies he claims to be opposing are the type of industrial entities that he invested with to personally profit. Therefore, Gill and others attacking Malinowski because they perceive him as a front-runner may have the necessary political ammunition to deny him the party nomination.

Tahesha Way served as New Jersey’s Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of State. Now-former Gov. Phil Murphy (D) appointed her to both positions. She is spending her ad time attacking Trump and claims she is the only candidate to have “beaten Trump.” The reference is to winning an election law case against the Trump Administration.

All of the major candidates will be well funded, and the Democratic primary race will likely attract a great deal of attention as we approach Election Day. The Republicans have an unopposed candidate for their nomination. Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway will face the eventual Democratic nominee.

It remains to be seen if the Republicans will mount a major challenge in this district. The seat has transformed over the years from one that typically elected Republicans to one that is now reliably Democratic.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the NJ-11 partisan lean is 55.6D – 42.5R. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris defeated President Trump there, 53.1 – 44.6 percent. In her two elections under the present district configuration, then-Rep. Sherrill averaged 57.7 percent of the vote in a pair of largely non-competitive elections.

The 11th District’s partisan voting history suggests the seat could at some point again become competitive. Considering, however, the Republicans’ rather poor performances in special elections around the country this year where their candidates are typically underperforming either as compared to the Trump number, the partisan lean factor, or both, it is doubtful that Hathaway can mount a serious run to score an upset victory on April 16.

New Jersey’s 11th CD lies in the northern part of the state and encompasses parts of three counties, Essex, Morris, and Passaic. The district is anchored in Morris County where the 11th covers approximately three-quarters of the local population. Another approximately 300,000 individuals reside in Essex County, with the remaining 80,000-plus more in Passaic. The main population centers are the cities of Morristown, Montclair, and Broomfield, the latter two located just northwest of Newark.

The next special congressional election comes on Jan. 31 in Texas, where Houston voters will choose a successor between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, both Democrats.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) previously announced that the special election to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville) for Aug. 4, the latest date possible under state law. Voters in the special election will choose who will serve out the remaining term of the late Congressman.

NC-1 Rematch;
TX-18 Special Election Overview

North Carolina 2026 Congressional District map (Click on image or here to go to: DRA-North Carolina)

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025

NC-1

A surprising turn of events has occurred in North Carolina’s eastern 1st Congressional District, as we move past last week’s North Carolina candidate Friday filing deadline for the March 3 primary.

The 1st District is the focal point of the new North Carolina redistricting map. Republican legislators redrew the congressional plan several weeks ago with the goal of flipping the district from Democratic Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to a Republican. Now, we see a major change on the candidate slate.

Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson (R), who earlier loaned his congressional campaign $2 million, decided earlier last week to end his candidacy. On Thursday, 2024 congressional nominee Laurie Buckhout, who had endorsed Roberson, decided she would make a comeback in his absence and declared her candidacy.

Buckhout had accepted a Department of Defense position from the Trump Administration but will now leave Washington, DC and re-enter the 1st District race. In 2024, Buckhout held Rep. Davis to a razor-thin 49.5 – 48.7 percent re-election margin in District 1’s more Democratic version. In the same election, however, President Trump carried the district with a 51.2 – 48.1 percent margin over Kamala Harris.

At this point, with candidate filing closed as of Friday, the announced Republican candidates in addition to Buckhout are Carteret Count Sheriff Asa Buck, state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Powells Point), Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse, and attorney Ashley-Nicole Russell.

Rep. Davis, saddled with what is now an unfavorable district, has filed for re-election. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the new NC-1 is 52.4R – 45.9D. The 2024 election’s partisan lean was 50.9D – 47.7R.

The North Carolina primary is scheduled for March 3. In order to avoid a runoff, the first-place finisher must exceed the 30 percent vote threshold. NC-1 is now a prime conversion opportunity for the GOP.

TX-18

The special election to replace the late Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has had the longest campaign cycle of the five 2025 US House vacancies. Turner passed away earlier this year on March 5.

Gov. Greg Abbott decided to schedule the special election concurrently with the state’s municipal elections on Nov. 4. Under Texas law, a runoff election, necessary if no candidate receives 50 percent in the first vote, is calendared once it becomes official that no contender reached the majority mark.

In this case, Gov. Abbott slotted the runoff for Jan. 31. Qualifying for that election are Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards.

Redistricting has played havoc with this Houston-anchored CD, which is fully contained within Harris County. Immediately after the special election concludes, both Menefee and Edwards, regardless of the outcome, will advance into the regular term primary election for new District 18 that will be settled on March 3. There, however, they will face 9th District veteran Congressman Al Green (D-Houston) who is running for a 12th term in new District 18.

The new map puts both Menefee and Edwards at a major disadvantage against Rep. Green because 64.5 percent of the new district constituency comes from the Congressman’s current 9th CD according to The Down Ballot political blog redistribution analysis. Only 25.8 percent carries over from the current 18th where the special election is being conducted.

Turning to the special, a new Lake Partners Research survey (Dec. 8-14; 437 likely TX-18 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) conducted for the Jan. 31 runoff finds Menefee posting a 43-30 percent edge.

Looking at the district stats and comparing them with the new map, it appears that the special election winner will likely have only a short tenure in the House as Congressman Green will be favored to prevail for the regular term party nomination on March 3.

Special Elections Update

by Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

Special Elections

With the TN-7 special election now complete, three more contests are pegged for the first quarter of next year. The upcoming special elections will be held in Georgia, New Jersey, and Texas.

TN-7

This week’s Tennessee result saw the 7th District electorate performing as the voting history projected, thus quelling the Democrats’ quest for the upset that certain polls suggested was possible. The 54-44 percent result from what will likely be a touch over 180,000 votes cast when all ballots are counted – a large number for a special congressional election – was equivalent to the Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean calculation of 55.1R – 42.2D.

Most importantly, from the Republicans’ perspective, the party apparatus proved in this instance, that they could turn out the base vote and a sizable number of the casual Trump voters, meaning those who typically only vote when the President is on the ballot. Repeatedly doing so in future elections will be a critical factor in determining whether the party will have success in the regular midterm elections next year.

GA-14

Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) will resign on Jan. 5. At that point, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will schedule the special election to replace the outgoing Congresswoman in the northwestern district. GA-14 the safest Peach State Republican seat. The district stretches from just outside Marietta to the Tennessee border.

It is believed that Gov. Kemp will calendar the jungle primary for a date in March. Under Georgia special election law, all candidates are on the initial ballot with the top two finishers, irrespective of party affiliation, advancing to the runoff election in the likely event that no contender attracts majority support. To comply with state law, the secondary vote must occur within 28 days of the initial election. Therefore, it is probable that this seat will be filled before the end of April.

A total of 13 Republicans and two Democrats have already announced their candidacies, but the two most talked-about potential candidates, state Senate Majority Leader Jason Anavitarte (R-Doraville) and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton), have yet to formally declare.

It is probable that two Republicans will advance into the special runoff election. Republicans will hold this seat.

NJ-11

Gov.-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D) has resigned her congressional seat, thus leading to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) scheduling a Feb. 5 partisan primary and an April 16 special general election.

Candidate filing has closed, and 13 Democrats will be on the Feb. 5 ballot vying for the party nomination. Within the large group is former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski, ex-Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, and five local officials, with the remainder coming from the private sector or political activist class. Only one Republican filed, Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway, so he is guaranteed to win the party nomination, meaning a ballot slot for the special general election.

The partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) for this district, which redistricting has made much more Democratic in the previous two decades, is 55.6D – 42.5R. Therefore, it is clear the eventual Democratic nominee will have the inside track toward winning the special election and holding the seat for the party.

TX-18

The longest special election cycle to fill a congressional vacancy will culminate with a Jan. 31 runoff contest between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D). Since this is a double Democratic runoff, there is no doubt that the party will hold the seat for the duration of the current Congress.

Regardless of whether Menefee or Edwards wins the Jan. 31 vote, they will immediately find themselves embroiled in a new campaign against Rep. Al Green (D-Houston). Since it is likely that the new Texas congressional map will be in effect for the 2026 midterm elections, the Houston area sees a major reconfiguration of its congressional districts.

The new plan collapsed most of Rep. Green’s 9th CD into a new 18th District, with much of the current 18th going into Rep. Sylvia Garcia’s (D-Houston) new 29th CD. The regular cycle Texas primary is scheduled for March 3, so the eventual runoff winner and loser will find themselves immediately competing in a new campaign.

The regular term candidate filing deadline is Dec. 8. At this point, neither Menefee nor Edwards have filed for the new term, but both are expected to do so. This means that the loser of the Jan. 31 runoff could conceivably be an active candidate for the March 3 regular primary election, which could force Rep. Green into a runoff with either the new incumbent or the just-defeated runoff participant.

While the special election will end on Jan. 31, the campaign for a full term will already be entering political prime time.

TN-7: Republican Van Epps Wins

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

Special Election

Afghan War veteran Matt Van Epps scored a 53.9 – 45.0 percent victory last night in the TN-7 special election.

In what was turning into the most important special congressional election of the latter half of 2025, former state cabinet official and Afghan War veteran Matt Van Epps scored a 53.9 – 45.0 percent victory last night over state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) securing the district for the GOP and avoiding a Democratic partisan upset of national proportions.

The last published poll, from Emerson College (Nov. 22-24; 600 likely TN-7 special election voters; multiple sampling techniques), found only a two-point spread in Van Epps’ favor, 48-46 percent. Outside allies from both parties individually spent seven figures to promote their ideological choice understanding that the victory stakes were becoming unusually high for what should be a reliable Republican district.

Though the 7th CD was viewed as a safely Republican seat, Democrats, riding high with their big victories from the Nov. 4 elections in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, believed they had a legitimate chance to record an upset win.

Though Van Epps did not reach the 60 percent level that President Trump and resigned Rep. Mark Green (R) both attained in the 2024 general election, last night’s result was very close to the district’s partisan lean.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 55.1R – 42.2D partisan division for TN-7, which is close to where the candidates landed last night. The district performed as expected. Van Epps carried 13 of the district’s 14 counties, losing only Davidson, which is the Democrats’ base and contains Rep. Behn’s state House district in the city of Nashville.

Before 2021 redistricting, the 7th was more Republican. Democrats were added to the 7th in the most recent redraw to make the adjacent 5th District winnable for a GOP candidate, thereby lessening the 7th’s Republican strength.

Turnout for this special election was extremely high: 179,770 votes counted with 99 percent of the precincts reporting according to the latest available report. Typically, special congressional elections draw around 100,000 voters. Here, the high spending from both sides contributed to the large turnout and also led to the Republicans successfully turning out its Trump vote base, something that was routinely not happening in other 2025 elections.

In those contests, mostly at the state legislative level we saw a few major Democratic upsets occur. Seeing such results was evidence that the Trump voter base failed to participate in sufficient numbers to carry Republican candidates in elections without the President on the ballot. The TN-7 win may give the Republican strategists the formula they need for improved GOP performances in next year’s midterm elections.

The House partisan division now moves to 220 Republicans and 213 Democrats, with two Democratic vacancies. The 18th District of Texas remains without an incumbent (death of Rep. Sylvester Turner) until the Jan. 31 runoff election. New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill resigned her 11th District US House seat after being elected her state’s Governor.

On Jan. 5, the Republican conference recedes to 219 when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is scheduled to resign. The House will likely return to a full 435-member compliment in April when the projected special election calendars will be set for the purpose of filling the latter vacancies.

TN-7: Special Election Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025

Special Election

TN-7 candidates in today’s special election: Tennessee state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) / Republican Matt Van Epps.

Signs are prevalent that today’s special election in western Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District will be closer than the region’s voting history suggests.

An Emerson College pre-election survey (Nov. 22-24; 600 likely TN-7 special election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Republican Matt Van Epps, a former cabinet official in Gov. Bill Lee’s (R) administration, leading state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) by only a 48-46 percent margin. This, in a district that both President Trump and resigned Congressman Mark Green (R) carried with 60 percent of the vote in 2024.

Both parties see outside allies pouring in money to help their favored candidates, so the political advertising has been intense. Turnout, as always, will be the key. The early voting numbers show Democratic participation up in the Davidson County (Nashville) precincts, while Republican early vote turnout looks to be below their previous winning level benchmarks in most of the outlying counties.

Analysis parallels have been made between this campaign and the special election held last April in Florida’s 6th Congressional District. There, Republican Randy Fine, who represented a state Senate district about 100 miles from the congressional district in which he ran, appeared to be underperforming against educator Josh Weil (D) who spent almost $16 million in the special election campaign. President Trump carried the district in the previous November election with a 65-35 percent margin. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculated the district’s partisan lean at 60.7R – 37.3D.

In the FL-6 special election, despite what was viewed as “widespread Republican panic” occurring over the Fine candidacy, the GOP nominee won the seat with a 56.7 – 42.7 percent margin. While detractors pointed to President Trump’s 65 percent, a comparison to depict the Fine performance in a negative light, turning back to the last time the 6th District was open is likely a better analysis indicator. Such a comparison tells a different story. In the 2018 open election, Republican Mike Waltz’s victory percentage was 56.3, or almost a half-point below Fine’s initial vote total.

The TN-7 district is routinely characterized in media reports as a “deep red” seat. Such was the case in previous redistricting plans, but not today. In the 2011-20 map, for example, the 7th District carried a partisan lean of 66.1R – 31.6D (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations), which certainly qualifies as a “deep red” CD.

Because the 2021 redistricting map added Democratic voters to the 7th to give Republicans a chance to win the adjacent 5th CD, a better depiction of the current TN-7 would be a “reliable” red district (55.1R – 42.2D: Dave’s Redistricting App calculations).

Behn comes from the Ocasio-Cortez/Mamdani wing of the Democratic Party. Her winning would be extraordinary in a Republican district such as TN-7 and will give credence to those who believe the Democrats will easily win the House majority in next year’s midterm elections.

Such a victory tonight would be even more astonishing when understanding that Behn has previously said that she “hates Nashville and the country music scene,” and been forcibly removed from the Governor’s office for protesting. She also said that “men and women can give birth,” and favors transgenderism for children.

Tennessee’s 7th District contains part of the city of Nashville and then stretches west and south to include 11 whole counties and parts of three others. The district encompasses territory from Kentucky to Alabama. In addition to containing part of Nashville, the other major population centers are the cities of Clarksville, from where former Rep. Green hails, and Franklin. (See map at Dave’s Redistricting App.)

The Tennessee situation again dictates that the Republicans must find a better way of motivating what is termed “the casual Trump voter,” that is, the person who will vote when President Trump is on the ballot but is typically not a regular election participant.

In special elections around the country this year, and particularly in the Virginia Governor’s campaign, the Republican turnout was low based upon previous benchmarks. Thus, the GOP turnout mechanism must be more effective in Tennessee if GOP candidate Van Epps is to prevail.

Democrats are riding high with momentum coming from the Nov. 4 elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City, and they believe the trend will continue in Tennessee. Van Epps should still be favored to at least win a close special election tonight, but what was heretofore an unlikely upset scenario now appears as a possibility.