Category Archives: Polling

AZ Polls Show Trump Over Desantis, But Desantis Over Biden; Ex-House Member Considers PA Senate Bid; Tiffany Readying for Senate Run in Wisc.; Kentucky Governor Poll

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 19, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump; Florida Gov. Ron Desantis (R)

Arizona: Trump Up in AZ GOP Primary Poll; DeSantis Leads in General — Two presidential polls were released in critically important Arizona, one for the Republican primary and the other isolating the candidates against President Biden. It is abundantly clear that Republicans must bring the Grand Canyon State back into their Electoral College coalition if they are to have any chance of winning the 2024 national election.

The Republican primary survey posts former President Donald Trump to a substantial advantage over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Desantis, however, would lead President Biden in a general election poll, while Trump would not.

JL Partners (April 10-12; 550 registered Arizona Republican and Undeclared voters) finds Trump holding a 47-24-4-4-3-2 percent advantage over Gov. DeSantis, ex-Vice President Mike Pence, former US Rep. Liz Cheney, ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, respectively, in the GOP primary study. Public Opinion Strategies surveyed the state’s general electorate (April 11-13; 500 likely Arizona voters; live interview) and forecasts Gov. DeSantis leading President Biden, 48-42 percent, while Trump trails 45-44 percent.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Ex-Rep. Rothfus Considering Senate — Republican Keith Rothfus served three terms in the US House from 2013 to 2019. He was defeated for re-election in 2018 when the state Supreme Court map collapsed Rep. Rothfus’ Pittsburgh area seat with that of fellow Rep. Conner Lamb (D). In that Democratic wave election year, Rep. Lamb defeated Rothfus with a 56-44 percent margin. The victorious congressman would then lose the 2022 US Senate Democratic primary to current incumbent John Fetterman, however.

Though the national and state Republican leadership are making it clear they would like to see 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick return to challenge Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D), Rothfus is indicating that he would have the ability to become a consensus candidate. There is yet no word from McCormick himself if he will again become a Senate contender. The Republican leadership certainly wants to put this seat in play but defeating Sen. Casey will be a tall order regardless of who becomes the GOP nominee.

Wisconsin: Rep. Tiffany Okays Senate Website — Reports are surfacing that Wisconsin US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) has approved the purchase of US Senate campaign domain names. The Congressman indicated, however, that this act does not necessarily mean he will actually become a statewide candidate.

Tiffany won a special election to the 7th Congressional District in 2020 with 57 percent of the vote, and then a full term with 61 percent later that year. He was re-elected in 2022 with a 62 percent vote margin. Should he run for the Senate and win the Republican primary, Rep. Tiffany would then face Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) who recently announced that she will compete for a third term.

Governor

Kentucky: AG Cameron Securing First Place in New Poll — Now less than one month before the 2023 Kentucky statewide primary election, a new Emerson College poll (April 10-11; 900 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & text) sees Attorney General Daniel Cameron continuing to lead the GOP gubernatorial primary despite being under intense attack from his main opponent.

The poll results find AG Cameron leading former UN Ambassador Kelly Craft 30-24 percent. Trailing are Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles (15 percent), disbarred attorney Eric Deters (6 percent), and state Auditor Mike Harmon (2 percent). The winner of the May 16 primary battle will then challenge Gov. Andy Beshear (D) in the November general election.

Costello Challenges Maine’s Sen King; PA Senate Poll; Romney’s Rough Road in Utah; Louisiana Gov. Race Update

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 17, 2023

Senate

Maine: Sen. King Draws Democratic Opponent — David Costello (D), a former aide to Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley (D) before moving to Maine, announced his candidacy for the US Senate late last week. (See video above.) He hopes to oppose Independent Sen. Angus King, who is expected to seek a third term. Democrats have filed candidates in both of Sen. King’s victorious races, but neither have been competitive. Still, the three-way race including the Republican nominee, was able to keep Sen. King’s winning percentages down to 54 and 51 percent in 2012 and 2018, respectively.

Should Costello be able to mount a significant campaign, the chances increase for Sen. King to drop below 50 percent, and that means Maine’s Ranked Choice Voting system would take effect. In that wild-card system, the end result would not be as easy to predict.

Pennsylvania: First 2024 Poll — On the heels of Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) announcing that he will seek a fourth term, Pennsylvania’s Franklin & Marshall College went into the field with a statewide survey (March 27-4/7; 643 registered Pennsylvania voters; live interview). According to these results, Sen. Casey would lead 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick (R), 42-35 percent. His lead significantly expands to 47-31 percent if his opponent were 2022 gubernatorial nominee and state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R).

Somewhat surprisingly, the poll finds Sen. Casey’s job approval rating at a rather poor 29:48 percent favorable to unfavorable. This compares to Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro’s positive 43:36 percent job approval ratio.

Utah: Sen. Romney Files 2024 Campaign Committee — Utah Sen. Mitt Romney (R) has filed a 2024 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. While this action is not a formal declaration of candidacy, filing a campaign committee is certainly the first step toward him seeking a second term.

It is likely that Sen. Romney will be forced to petition his way onto the ballot since the chances of him coming through the conservative Utah Republican Party nominating convention are slim. Such would lead to a June 2024 Republican primary challenge. The most prominent potential opponent being discussed is former congressman and Fox News contributor Jason Chaffetz. State House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville) has formed a US Senate exploratory committee. Attorney General Sean Reyes (R) is also a potential Senate candidate.

States

Louisiana: Gov Candidate to Switch Races — The surprise announcement from Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin (R) that he is not going to seek re-election has now changed the governor’s race. State House Speaker Clay Schexnayder (R-Gonzales), who was clearly laying the groundwork to enter the open governor’s race, has now adjusted his political course and announced his run for the open Secretary of State’s position.

The top Republicans already in the governor’s race are Attorney General Jeff Landry, state Treasurer John Schroder, and former Chamber of Commerce CEO Stephen Waguespack. Democrats look to be coalescing around former state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. The Louisiana primary is Oct. 14, 2023. If no candidate receives majority support, a two-person runoff will occur on Nov. 18.

Trump’s Numbers Under Indictment; House Battles in CA-45, MI-3, NM-2; Morrisey to Run for WVa Governor

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 7, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump appears in court with members of his legal team for an arraignment on Tuesday, April 4. (Andrew Kelly/Pool/Reuters)

Under Indictment: Trump’s Numbers — Though under indictment, former President Donald Trump sees his polling numbers continue to improve, this time in three states. His lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and others, has grown according to new surveys from Massachusetts and New Hampshire, while his deficit has tightened in Florida.

Clearly, looking at his flash polling numbers and post-indictment, multi-million dollar fundraising haul, there is no question that former President Trump’s political base is rising to the occasion. The question is, as this legal process will almost assuredly drag on for the foreseeable future, will he be politically sustained for the long run?

The early states next year will be critical for Trump. The court scheduled his next appearance for Dec. 4, which is just two months before the Feb. 5 Iowa Caucuses. At that point, perception could change.

House

CA-45: New Field Forming Against Rep. Steel — Harvard-educated attorney Aditya Pai, who moved to Orange County from India as a child when eight years old, announced that he will join the growing field to challenge two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) in next March’s all-party jungle primary. Already declared are Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen and attorney Cheyenne Hunt. Jay Chen, the Community College Trustee who held Rep. Steel to a 52-48 percent re-election win in November, is also a potential candidate.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-45 as D+5. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 52.2D – 45.9R partisan lean. Rep. Steel was recently added to the Democrats’ Frontline target list. We can expect another competitive campaign here next year.

MI-3: Another Attempt — Financial Advisor Michael Markey (R) intended to run for the House two years ago, but the company he hired to gather petition signatures failed to complete the job and his candidacy was rejected. Now, with a new incumbent in the redrawn 3rd District, freshman Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), Markey returns. This time, it is likely he will better handle the campaign mechanics.

Rep. Scholten won the 3rd District after GOP incumbent Peter Meijer was defeated for renomination. For his part, Meijer may run for the Senate. The 2021 redistricting map changed the 3rd CD from one that favored Republicans when then-Rep. Meijer was first elected (R+9 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization), to its current D+3 configuration.

NM-2: Re-Match on Tap — Former New Mexico Congresswoman Yvette Herrell (R), who lost her re-election bid by a razor-thin 50.3 – 49.7 percent margin to freshman Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) is preparing for a re-match. Herrell has already filed a 2024 committee with the Federal Election Commission and has scheduled an April 10 kick-off event for her new campaign that will feature House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).

The 2nd will yield another competitive congressional contest and promises to be a top Republican conversion target. The district was re-drawn with a 19-point swing from the previous version giving the Democrats a small advantage.

Governor

West Virginia: AG Morrisey to Run for Governor — As has been expected at least since a mid-March National Research, Inc. Republican primary poll found him leading the open GOP field, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey announced that he will enter the 2024 gubernatorial campaign.

In 2018, Morrisey held Sen. Joe Manchin (D) to a 49.6 – 46.3 percent re-election win. He has averaged 55.5 percent of the vote in his three victories as the state’s attorney general. In the 2018 Republican Senatorial primary, Morrisey defeated five opponents with 35 percent of the vote.

Currently, there are eight candidates in the gubernatorial race including Morrisey, Secretary of State Mac Warner, State Auditor J.B. McCuskey, state Delegate Moore Capito (R-Charleston), the son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), and auto dealer Chris Miller, son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington). Gov. Jim Justice (R), who is ineligible to seek a third term, is likely to run for the Senate.

Elections: Johnson Wins in Chicago, Democrat Wins Crucial Wisconsin Judicial Race; Trump Gets Post-Indictment Bounce; House News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 5, 2023

Election Results

Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson (D) will succeed Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D).

Chicago Mayor: Johnson Wins Close Election — Former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas was attempting to complete a worst-to-first showing from his last place finish in the 2019 Chicago mayor’s race, but fell just under three percentage points of accomplishing his goal. The winner, with 51.4 percent of the runoff vote, is Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson (D), who will now succeed Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) after her defeat in the initial round of voting.

Johnson’s combined support from the Chicago Teachers Union and the black and Hispanic communities, together of which accounts for approximately 60 percent of the city’s population, led to his victory. Commissioner Johnson is himself a former teacher and union organizer.

Wisconsin Supreme Court: Democrat Wins — Milwaukee County Circuit Court Judge Janet Prostasiewicz won a rather easy 55-45 percent victory last night in what many believe was a crucial election. The victory now gives the Democrats the majority on the state Supreme Court for the first time in 15 years. Abortion, again, was a major topic in the race with Prostasiewicz positioning her opponent, former defeated Supreme Court Judge Dan Kelly, as an extremist. Kelly raised little money for the race, but had major outside support. Prostasiewicz and the Democrats had a major resource advantage, and ran the campaign as if it were closer to a partisan congressional race than a judicial battle.

It is probable that we will now see a redistricting lawsuit filed and the state’s 6R-2D map overturned. Prostasiewicz indicated during the campaign that she thought the congressional map was “unfair.”

It appears Republicans won a state Senate special election that would give them a Super Majority within the body. This would allow them to override many of Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ potential vetoes. With 99 percent of the vote counted, Republican Dan Knodl held 50.4 percent of the vote.

President

State Polling: Trump’s Indictment Bounce — Though now under indictment, former President Donald Trump sees his polling numbers continue to improve, this time in three states. His lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and others, has grown according to new surveys from Massachusetts and New Hampshire, while his deficit has closed in the Sunshine State.

Opinion Dynamics, polling for the Boston Herald newspaper (released April 3; 475 likely Massachusetts Republican primary voters) sees Trump’s Massachusetts lead expand to 45-21-9-3 percent over Gov. DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and ex-Vice President Mike Pence. In a two-way test, Trump led DeSantis, 46-32 percent.

In New Hampshire, St. Anselm’s College conducted one of their regular Granite State surveys (March 28-30; 1,320 registered New Hampshire voters; live interview via cellphone). Here, Trump’s advantage is 42-29 percent, with New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu pulling 14 percent.

The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Florida survey (March 27-30; 625 registered Florida voters with a 507 over-sample of Republican voters for the GOP primary questions; live interview) sees DeSantis, with a strong GOP approval rating of 87:7 percent favorable to unfavorable, leading former President Trump 44-39 percent before the governor’s home state electorate.

House

MI-10: New Democrat Comes Forth — Last November freshman Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) won a very tight 49-48 percent election victory over former judge and prosecuting attorney Carl Marlinga (D). He has now already drawn two opponents even though Marlinga is expected to return to seek a re-match.

Earlier in the week, former state representative candidate Diane Young (D) announced her congressional candidacy. Previously, attorney and 2022 congressional nominee against Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Bruce), Brian Jaye (D), declared his candidacy in the adjoining 10th CD. It is already clear that regardless of how many Democrats come forward to attempt to challenge Rep. James, the 2024 Democratic nominee will almost assuredly again be Marlinga. He will once more give Rep. James a very competitive battle in the general election.

NY-3: Rep. Santos Has Primary Challenge — It is a foregone conclusion that embattled freshman New York Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) is the most vulnerable House member for the coming 2024 election. While two Democrats have previously announced their candidacies, the first Republican challenger stepped forward yesterday.

Afghan War veteran and former JP Morgan Vice President Kellen Curry declared himself a candidate for the Republican nomination. It is expected that we will see a crowded Republican primary form long before the June 2024 New York primary. Defeating Rep. Santos in the primary may be the only way the GOP has of potentially salvaging the seat.

The Presidential Campaign Goes On

Former President Donald Trump

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 31, 2023

President

Donald Trump: Indictment — Yesterday’s indictment of former President Donald Trump will undoubtedly change the presidential campaign picture, but predicting any eventuality at this early juncture of the juxtaposition between the legal and political processes is difficult.

In the past few weeks, Trump has been trending upward in national Republican primary polling. Earlier in the year, survey results were flip-flopping between he and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in terms of which man was leading on ballot tests before a national Republican electorate.

As we approached yesterday’s indictment, both the horse race numbers, ostensibly between Trump and DeSantis, and even the personal favorability indexes were showing noticeable improvement in the former president’s favor.

In fact, the recent Fox News Poll posted Trump to a 30-point national Republican advantage over Gov. DeSantis (conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research for Fox News; March 24-27; 1,007 US registered voters; approximately 423 Republican primary voters; live interview: Trump 54; DeSantis 24; former VP Mike Pence 6; ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley 3; former Congresswoman Liz Cheney 3 percent).

It will be interesting to see just how the media coverage of the indictment, arraignment, legal arguments and eventual trial changes the political picture. There is no question that the associated events and their ultimate outcome will have at this point an undetermined major impact upon the nomination campaign’s outcome. It will doubtlessly also affect the general election contest.

What we do know is the previous early polling pattern is still present. Yesterday, a new Georgia Republican presidential primary poll was released, and we again see Gov. DeSantis performing better on a state basis than he does nationally.

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Kelly & Kelly for Senate; Challenger to NJ Rep. Pascrell, 87, May Emerge; Chicago Mayoral Battle Continues; Two in Florida Runoff Battle

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 28, 2023

Senate

Scott (left) and twin brother, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly

Texas: Democrats Searching for Candidate — Just like the Wisconsin Republicans in their quest to find a standard bearer to challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) next year, the Lone Star State Democrats are continuing their search for a strong challenger to oppose Sen. Ted Cruz (R). Still not successfully recruiting either Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) or former HUD Secretary and ex-San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, the Democrats are now floating the idea of astronaut Scott Kelly, the twin brother of Arizona senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly (D).

Though Scott Kelly, who for a time was the world record holder for being in space for the longest duration (340 days), has not made any confirming statement that he is taking the same political path as his brother, if the Democratic leadership were to convince him to run, that would make an interesting race.

House

NJ-9: Potential Challenge for Rep. Pascrell — In mid March, we reported that 14-term New Jersey Congressman Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) announced that he would seek re-election next year at age 87. He may not have a free ride, however. Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh is reportedly weighing his chances of challenging Rep. Pascrell in the 2024 Democratic primary.

Prior to being elected to Congress for the first time in 1996, Pascrell was simultaneously the mayor of Paterson and a state assemblyman. In 2012, when New Jersey lost a seat in national reapportionment, Rep. Pascrell and then Rep. Steve Rothman (D) were paired in the new 9th District. Initially, Rep. Pascrell was considered the underdog in the incumbent vs. incumbent Democratic primary, but the elder congressman would prevail in the end with a landslide 62-38 percent victory. Rep. Pascrell has not been seriously challenged since.

Mayor

Chicago: Vallas and Johnson Continue to Battle — The Chicago municipal contest, where voters have already defeated Mayor Lori Lightfoot, continues to brandish polling showing a very tight runoff contest between former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson. Several published polls disagree as to who is leading whom in the race. The latest Victory Research survey (March 20-23; 806 Chicago likely runoff voters) sees Vallas leading 46-44 percent. IZQ Strategies (March 15-16; 680 likely Chicago runoff voters) arrives at the same 46-44 percent ballot test result, but they find Commissioner Johnson holding the slight edge.

Vallas has recently been able to cross racial lines by attracting endorsements from African American former officeholders Jesse White, who served six terms as the Illinois Secretary of State, and ex-Congressman Bobby Rush, who was in office for 30 years. Crime is a big issue in the contest and could be the defining one. The runoff is scheduled for April 4.

Jacksonville: Two Advance — The Jacksonville mayoral primary was held during the week, and Democrat Donna Deegan topped the field of candidates with 39 percent of the vote. Daniel Davis (R), the local Chamber of Commerce CEO, was second with 25 percent. Since neither candidate received majority support, the two will advance to a May 16 runoff election. Combined, Republican candidates received 51 percent of the vote as compared to the combined Democratic percentage of 48. Republican incumbent Lenny Curry is ineligible to seek a third term.

Mixed Signals in a National Poll

To get a PDF of the Economist/YouGov poll, click on the above image.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 27, 2023

The Nation

Polling: Mixed Signals — The international online polling firm YouGov again partnered with The Economist publication to survey the US population, and while the respondents are generally pessimistic about the state of the American economy, their outlook toward the country’s leadership is somewhat improved.

The poll (March 19-21; 1,500 US adults; online) finds that 56 percent of those surveyed say they believe that the economy is already in a recession. An additional 21 percent think it is very likely or somewhat likely that the economy will further dip within the next year.

A majority of those participating also believe the country is on the wrong track (61 percent), but that result is not as negative as numbers we were seeing last year at this time. Then, the wrong track number was approaching or at 70 percent. A total of 28 percent in the current poll responded that they believe the country is on the right track, while 10 percent are unsure.

Similarly, President Biden’s job approval index is still upside-down at 43:51 percent, with 38 percent rating his performance as very unfavorable. While these numbers are not particularly good, the ratios are an improvement from what was presented last year. Perhaps most troubling for the president, however, is that almost half of the sample, 44 percent, views him as dishonest. Only 40 percent perceive him as honest.

Should the honesty negative response increase, which is possible if more questionable Biden family transactions regarding China and Chinese-owned companies come to light, such a trend could spell serious trouble for the president’s re-election prospects.

While no ballot test pairing President Biden with either former President Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was included in this YouGov questionnaire, the respondents were asked whether they want to see President Biden seek re-election. Here, as has been found in many other national polls, a strong majority (59 percent) say they do not. Only 25 percent would encourage him to run in 2024.

Former President Trump, however, is at parity with President Biden on this question, so if Trump again becomes the Republican nominee, both negative ratios would likely be neutralized. A total of 32 percent say Trump should come back, while 57 percent would oppose him running in 2024.

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