Tag Archives: Bob Ferguson

Tlaib Calling for Protest Vote; Potentially Strong Senate Candidate Files in Wisconsin; Lesko to Retire, But Not From Politics; Close Governor Race in Washington

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2024

President

Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) is calling for a protest vote in Michigan’s Democratic primary.

Michigan: Rep. Tlaib Calling for Protest Vote — The Michigan presidential primary is scheduled for next Tuesday, and controversial US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) is calling for pro-Palestinian voters to “support Gaza” by voting for the “Uncommitted Slate” in the Democratic primary. While this tactic may gain some votes within the large Muslim community in the Detroit area, it will not deter President Joe Biden from securing all of Michigan’s Democratic delegates. He is on track to mathematically clinch the nomination on the first convention ballot when the March 19 primaries conclude.

Senate

Wisconsin: Republican Candidate Files with FEC — Banking and real estate investor Eric Hovde, who ran for the Senate in the 2012 Republican primary, has filed a 2024 US Senate campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. Wisconsin is the last potentially competitive state where Republicans do not have a strong candidate. The national Republican leadership hopes Hovde will be viable enough to keep this state in play for November. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is seeking a third term.

In 2012, Hovde lost the Republican primary to former four-term Gov. Tommy Thompson on a 34-30 percent count. Thompson would then lose to then-US Rep. Baldwin, 51-46 percent, in what proved to be the senator’s first statewide victory. Wisconsin elections are always close, so this will be yet another race to watch as the election cycle proceeds.

Maricopa County, Arizona: Retiring Congresswoman to Run for Local Office — GOP Congresswoman Debbie Lesko (R-AZ) may be retiring from Congress, but not from elective politics. Lesko announced that she will run this year for an open seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors. The incumbent, Republican Clint Hickman who was re-elected four years ago with almost 59 percent of the vote, is retiring. Former President Donald Trump carried the 4th Supervisorial District with 57 percent over President Joe Biden in 2020. Each of the five county supervisors represent just over 900,000 people, just slightly larger than the size of a congressional district.

In recent election years several California US House members, then-Reps. Janice Hahn (D-Los Angeles), Gloria Negrete McLeod (D-San Bernardino), and Paul Cook (R-San Bernardino) also left the US House to run for a county board position. Reps. Hahn and Cook were successfully elected. Former Congresswoman Hilda Solis (D) is also a member of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, but she was elected after serving as US Labor Secretary in the Obama Administration.

Governor

Washington: Another Close Governor Race Survey — Once again, we see more survey data predicting a tight open seat campaign, this time in the Washington governor’s race. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Northwest Progressive Institute sees Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) and former US representative and King County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R) advancing into the general election from the Aug. 6 jungle primary. Ferguson and Reichert recorded a respective 35-27-9 percent showing over Richland School Board member Semi Bird in the primary polling.

Though a previous PPP poll posted Reichert to a small lead, this sampling universe sees Ferguson inching ahead. The ballot test result favored the Democratic attorney general within the polling margin of error, 46-44 percent.

Endorsing NJ’s First Lady;
GOP Primary Challenge in SC-4; Washington’s Surprising Republican Contender; Louisiana Runoff Results

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 21, 2023

Senate

Tammy Murphy, New Jersey’s First Lady

New Jersey: Tammy Murphy Scoring Key Endorsements — Being New Jersey’s First Lady certainly has its perks. Since announcing her Senate challenge to indicted incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) late last week, Tammy Murphy, the wife of incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D), already has secured four important county party endorsements.

In New Jersey, official county party endorsements mean more than in other states because the favored candidates received substantially better ballot positions in addition to having access to party resources. So far, the state’s two largest Democratic local party organizations, Bergen and Middlesex Counties, along with those in Camden and Hudson, have awarded Ms. Murphy their endorsements.

Additionally, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), who is reportedly testing the waters for a 2025 gubernatorial race when Mr. Murphy is ineligible to seek re-election, became the state’s first sitting US House member to endorse the First Lady. Aside from Sen. Menendez, who has yet to say whether he will seek re-election, US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is in what is already becoming a highly competitive statewide Democratic primary campaign.

House

SC-4: Rep. Timmons Facing Potentially Strong Primary — In 2022, South Carolina Rep. William Timmons (R-Greenville) found himself winning his renomination campaign with just 53 percent of the vote against what were thought to be minor opponents. A highly publicized extra-marital affair that included accusing the congressman of using his office resources to conceal his activity was largely the reason his primary was so close.

On Friday, state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Taylors) announced that he will challenge Rep. Timmons in the June primary election. Since Morgan will be a stronger opponent than any of the three individuals who ran in 2022, the 2024 primary will be one worth watching.

Governor

Washington: PPP’s Surprise Poll — Public Policy Polling again conducted one of their regular Washington statewide surveys for the Northwest Progressive Institute and the results are eye-opening. According to the PPP study (Nov. 14-15; 750 registered Washington voters; multiple sampling techniques), former Congressman Dave Reichert (R) and Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) are tied with 31 percent support apiece.

The shocker comes when the pollsters queried the respondents about who they would support in a general election assuming that both Reichert and Ferguson advance from the all-party jungle primary into the November election. On the ballot test, Reichert enjoyed a 46-44 percent lead over AG Ferguson. It is an astonishing result in that a Republican would post any kind of an advantage in Washington, one of the most Democratic states in the Union.

States

Louisiana: Runoff Election Results — After electing a new governor outright in the Nov. 14 election as Governor-Elect Jeff Landry (R) was able to secure majority support, Republicans finished the 2023 statewide elections with a landslide sweep. The GOP won the secretary of state, attorney general, and state treasurer’s office with between 65 and 67 percent of the vote. Former Congressman John Fleming (R) returns to elective office with his victory as State Treasurer.

Turnout was extremely low with almost 670,000 votes cast, which is just 44 percent of the total participation figure from the last statewide runoff in 2019. In that election, however, the governor’s race was being decided. The lack of the governor and lieutenant governor being forced into runoffs is the obvious reason turnout was down by such a large proportion.

Maine Sen. King, 80, to Seek Third Term; Illinois House News; Potential GOP Candidate in Washington

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 6, 2023

Senate

Sen. Angus King, Maine (I)

Maine: Independent Incumbent Will Seek Re-Election — Two-term Maine Sen. Angus King, who is elected as an Independent but caucuses with the Democrats, announced that he will seek a third term next year. It was expected that Sen. King, who will be 80 years old at the next election and a cancer survivor, would run again. Before his original election to the Senate in 2012, King served two terms as Maine’s governor. The senator is a prohibitive favorite to win re-election next year.

House

IL-12: Primary Challenge Brewing — Former state senator and 2022 Illinois gubernatorial Republican nominee Darren Bailey is hosting a major gathering where he is expected to announce that he will launch a Republican primary challenge to five-term Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro/Carbondale), the current chairman of the House Veterans Affairs Committee.

The challenge is a surprising one in that Rep. Bost is just as conservative as Bailey, so there will be little to draw contrast with him at least in terms of public policy. Because Illinois is so heavily gerrymandered, the 12th CD is one of three solidly Republican seats in the state. Therefore, the only threat to Rep. Bost comes in the GOP primary. Expect the congressman to win renomination and re-election next year. The Illinois primary is early, scheduled for March 19, 2024.

IL-17: Potential Candidacy Brewing — Former state Rep. Dan Brady (R), who represented a central Illinois seat in the state legislature for 20 years before running unsuccessfully for Secretary of State last November, is reportedly close to launching a congressional campaign against freshman Democratic US Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline).

On the gerrymandered Illinois congressional map, the 17th appears to be the most competitive seat in the state. In November, Republican Esther Joy King held Sorensen to a 52-48 percent victory in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+4. The seat is shaped almost like a C, beginning in Rockford, and then swinging west to the Quad Cities area, before moving southeast and east through Galesburg and Peoria before ending in Bloomington. Rep. Sorensen will be favored for re-election, but this district could become highly competitive.

Governor

Washington: Ex-GOP Rep Looking at Governor’s Race — Former congressman and ex-King County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R), who served in the House from 2005 to the beginning of 2019, is reportedly exploring a bid for the open governor’s office. Reichert has looked at statewide office before but has not run. His chances of qualifying for the general election in the jungle primary would be good since he would likely corral the votes of what should be a united Republican Party behind him. In the general election, however, probably opposite Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D), he would be a distinct underdog.

RFK Jr. Continues Strong Challenge to President Biden; Ramaswamy Still in It; Donnelly Won’t Run for Governor; AG Leads Gov Race in WA

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 15, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: New Polls — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. continues to mount a challenge to President Joe Biden, and three new Democratic primary polls were recently released, two national and one in California, providing new benchmarks. While Kennedy is not even within shouting distance of the president in any of the polls, they do, however, again largely show that the incumbent is not universally accepted within his own party.

The Issues & Insights TIPP poll (May 31-June 2; 1,230 registered voters likely to vote in a Democratic primary; online) finds President Biden topping Kennedy, 68-12 percent, with four percent going to author Marianne Williamson. The Suffolk University poll conducted for USA Today (June 5-9; 293 likely Democratic primary voters) projects Biden with only 58 percent support, while Kennedy captures 15 percent and Williamson six percent. Emerson College sampled the California electorate (June 4-7; 1,056 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques) and posts President Biden with a 72-17-7 percent advantage over Kennedy and Williamson in the Golden State primary.

While President Biden is secure for renomination, Kennedy is exceeding expectations in the early states, which might place him in position to run on the No Labels Party ticket that may be formed in April of next year.

Vivek Ramaswamy: Not Dropping Out — Media reports surfacing earlier this week that Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy was going to announce he was withdrawing from the race and endorsing former President Donald Trump at his Tuesday morning news conference in Miami proved erroneous. While Ramaswamy, who is well on his way to securing a debate podium at the first Republican presidential debate on Aug. 23, did not suspend his campaign, he did become the first candidate to say he would pardon Trump if elected president.

Governor

Indiana: Ambassador Donnelly Won’t Run for Governor — A former campaign manager for, and longtime associate of US ambassador to the Holy See Joe Donnelly (D) said speculation that Donnelly would return to Indiana to run for governor next year is false. The ambassador of the United States to the Holy See is the official representative of the United States of America to the Holy See, the leadership of the Catholic Church. The spokesperson indicated that the ambassador will continue to serve in his present post and not become a political candidate in 2024.

Prior to accepting the ambassadorship, Donnelly represented Indiana in both the House and Senate. He served three terms in the House before being elected senator in 2012. He was defeated for re-election in 2018. There was further speculation suggesting if he would return to Indiana to run for governor and that former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) would be appointed as the replacement ambassador.

Washington: AG Leads Open Gov Race — Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Northwest Progressive Institute (released June 9; 773 registered Washington voters), finds Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) leading the jungle primary with 25 percent support. Republican physician Robert Garcia is second with 17 percent backing followed by Richland School Board member Semi Bird (R) at 10 percent. Democrats Hillary Franz, the Public Lands Commissioner, and state Sen. Mark Mullett (D-Issaquah) trail with nine and eight percent, respectively.

Ferguson claims to operate his early campaign as an “exploratory committee,” but Washington has no such legal designation. Therefore, technically, Ferguson is an announced candidate as are the others. Gov. Jay Inslee (D) is not seeking a fourth term next year. The jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024. The top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation and percentage attained will advance into the general election.

DeSantis Trails in New Poll; Sen. Casey Expands Lead in PA; A Pastor Looks to Run in CA-41; Defeated Gov Candidate Interested in MD-6 House Race; Washington State Gov Candidate

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 15, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)

Florida: DeSantis Trails in New Poll — A National Research, Inc. survey of Florida Republican voters (May 8-9; 500 likely Florida Republican primary voters; live interview & text) for the first time found Gov. Ron DeSantis trailing in his home state. According to these results, which the DeSantis Super PACs will undoubtedly soon counter, former President Donald Trump has taken a 42-34 percent lead over Gov. DeSantis, with no other candidate even reaching three percent. A total of 16 percent claim to be undecided in the early part of the presidential race.

This poll again underscores Trump’s current strength in the party primaries. The trend could change, however, when Gov. DeSantis officially begins his national campaign.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Expands Lead — Susquehanna Polling & Research returned a new Keystone State survey (May 2-8; 700 likely Pennsylvania voters) testing the upcoming US Senate race. Though former hedge fund CEO and 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick (R) is not yet an announced candidate, he was the only person tested against Sen. Bob Casey. The ballot test yielded the incumbent a stronger twelve-point lead, 53-41 percent. The previous published poll, from Franklin & Marshall College in early April, projected a 42-35 percent Casey edge.

House

CA-41: Party Switcher Enters Race Against Rep. Calvert — Pastor and San Jacinto City Councilman Brian Hawkins is looking to make a second run for Congress, but it will be in a different district and under a different party banner. Rev. Hawkins was the Republican nominee against Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Indio) in the new 25th District last November. He drew 42.6 percent of the vote. Now, however, he has popped up in District 41, wanting to run as a Democrat in hope of challenging veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) in next year’s general election.

Already declared under the Democratic label is Lake Elsinore City Councilman Tim Sheridan, but the potential candidate the area politicos are watching is 2022 nominee Will Rollins (D) who held Rep. Calvert to a 52-48 percent victory. Most believe Rollins will return and be favored to advance into the general election with the congressman. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 41st District as R+7. Former President Donald Trump carried the seat with a bare 50-49 percent margin over current President Biden.

MD-6: Defeated Gov Candidate Showing Interest in Open House Race — Former state Delegate Dan Cox (R), who was not much of a factor in the 2022 Maryland governor’s race in losing to author Wes Moore (D) by a 65-32 percent margin, said this week that he may have interest in entering the open 6th District congressional race that includes his home city of Frederick. Former state Delegate Neil Parrott, also from Frederick and who lost the last two congressional races against incumbent Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), is also looking at a third run.

Both men come from the right wing of the Republican Party. This means they could split the primary vote, thus allowing a more moderate candidate who would likely fare better in the general election to claim the party nomination. With Rep. Trone vacating the seat to run for the Senate, this open seat will attract national attention in what promises to be a hotly contested battle for the House majority.

Governor

Washington: Second Candidate Announces — State Land Commissioner Hilary Franz (D) became the second announced gubernatorial candidate after three-term incumbent Jay Inslee (D) made public his intention not to seek re-election next year. Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) was first to take such action, indicating that he filed an “exploratory committee.” Since Washington election law does not recognize exploratory committees, he is officially considered a candidate.

The Washington all-party jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024. The top two finishers, possibly a pair of Democrats, will advance into the general election.

VA Gov. Youngkin Officially Says No; Maryland Sen. Cardin to Retire;
Rep. Allred Indicating Texas Senate Candidacy; NH Mayor Setting Sites on Governorship; Gov. Inslee to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 3, 2023

President

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R)

Gov. Glenn Youngkin: Officially Says No — Verifying stories that had surfaced last week, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) at an appearance in California Monday confirmed that he will not be running for president in 2024. Clearly, the governor, serving his only four-year term allowable under Virginia law, was testing the national political waters but obviously does not perceive himself to have a viable victory path. (A Virginia governor can serve two terms, but not consecutively; only two governors in the history of the state served two non-consecutive terms.)

With former President Donald Trump dominating recent GOP nomination polling and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis a definable second, there is little room for a second-tier candidate to move to the top. Thus, the chance of this race evolving into a Trump vs. DeSantis national primary campaign continues to grow.

Senate

Maryland: Sen. Ben Cardin to Retire — Veteran Maryland officeholder Ben Cardin (D) announced that he will not seek a fourth US Senate term next year, retiring after serving what will be a storied 58 consecutive years in elective office when combining his time in the state legislature, the US House of Representatives, and Senate. He made the announcement Monday.

We can expect to see a spirited battle forming to succeed Sen. Cardin in the Democratic primary. With Republicans having little chance to win a Maryland statewide Senate race in a presidential election year, especially with their best potential candidate, former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan, already saying he will not run, the real battle will be in next year’s Democratic nomination process.

US Reps. John Sarbanes (D-Baltimore), son of former Sen. Paul Sarbanes, David Trone (D-Potomac), and Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park), along with Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks are all potential Senate candidates. Cardin is the third senator to announce retirement plans. He follows Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) who earlier made their intentions public.

Texas: Rep. Allred Moving Toward Senate Announcement — Democratic leaders have been making a play to recruit three-term US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), a former NFL football player, to challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R) next year. It appears their efforts will be successful. Though gaining a safe Democratic seat in 2021 redistricting, Rep. Allred appears poised to enter the Senate race as early as this week.

While Rep. Allred is likely the strongest potential candidate among the Texas Democratic possibilities, Sen. Cruz would remain favored to win a third term, particularly in a presidential year where Texas again would be expected to support the Republican nominee. Still, the Allred candidacy will make this Senate contest much more competitive, and Texas would become the Democrats’ top national conversion target.

Governor

New Hampshire: Democrat Files Gubernatorial Exploratory Committee — Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D), who has already announced that she will not be seeking re-election next year, announced the filing of a gubernatorial exploratory committee on Monday.

Gov. Chris Sununu (R), only the second Granite State chief executive to serve four consecutive terms in office could run for a fifth two-year term. Most believe that he will retire, however, and could well enter the presidential campaign as a favorite son from the first-in-the-nation primary state. It had been speculated upon for several months that Mayor Craig would make the jump into the 2024 gubernatorial campaign.

Washington: Gov. Jay Inslee to Retire — Evergreen State Gov. Jay Inslee (D), a former congressman and presidential candidate, announced yesterday that he will not seek a fourth term in office saying that “it is time to pass the torch.”

Lt. Gov. Denny Heck, Attorney General Bob Ferguson, and state Land Commissioner Hilary Franz are all potential Democratic candidates. Former US Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler is the Republican attracting the most attention as a potential GOP contender. Democrats will be favored to maintain the office, but a Republican advancing from the all-party jungle primary is also a likelihood.