Category Archives: 2024 Election

The Closest House Races (Part I)

US House Balance of Power / Source: US House of Representatives Press Gallery

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025

House

Now that the 2024 election numbers are all finalized and certified, we can begin to project battlegrounds for 2026. Republicans currently hold 218 seats while the Democrats have 215.

Not surprisingly, the House of Representatives’ very close partisan division yielded several tight finishes. In all, 29 House winners claimed their seats with less than 52 percent of the vote. As is the situation within the overall House chamber, the 11 closest winners are divided just about evenly between the two parties.

California Democrat Adam Gray unseated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes in 2024.

In the 2024 election, the 11 most competitive House races were decided by less than two percentage points. Republicans won six of these tight decisions and Democrats five.

The closest race came in northern California, where Democrat Adam Gray unseated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes. In 2022, the two battled to a difference of 564 votes but in the opposite finishing order.

The 2024 result was a bit surprising because President Donald Trump carried California’s 13th District by more than five percentage points. Seeing a Republican incumbent lose, even in such a close margin, with the top of the ticket finishing rather strongly, was unique in this election. Duarte was the only Republican incumbent to lose in a district that President Trump clinched.

Regardless of the reasons for Duarte’s razor-thin defeat, we can expect this Modesto-anchored CD to again be at the forefront of House battlegrounds next year.

The second closest House contest was also found in California, but this race was located more than 300 miles south of CA-13. Orange County Democrat Derek Tran unseated two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by only 653 votes, or two-tenths of one percent. Rep. Steel has already filed a 2026 campaign committee, so seeing a re-match here in 2026 is a strong possibility.

Another contest where the challenger came within less than 1,000 votes of winning occurred in eastern Iowa. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) slipped past former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) with a 799-vote margin. This, however, is not Miller-Meeks’ closest finish. When she first won the seat in 2020, she did so by only a six-vote difference. Since Bohannan also ran in 2022, it is unclear whether she will return for a third attempt. Regardless of who the Democrats field in the next election, this again will be a major targeted race.

The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew the state’s new congressional seat as a politically marginal district that would reflect a changing electorate. Northern Colorado’s 8th District, located to the north and northeast of Denver and awarded to the state in the 2020 census, has so far performed as intended.

In 2022, then-state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) won here with only 48.4 percent of the vote, which translated into a half-point victory margin. In 2024, then-state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) unseated the Congresswoman with a similar percentage, 48.9 percent, and a victory spread of seven-tenths of a point.

Evans’ upset victory proved a major reason for the Republicans being able to hold onto their small majority. Look for another tight contest in this perennial battleground district next year.

The next two results feature Democratic incumbents winning with similarly small margins as shown above. Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) and Jared Golden (D-ME) both won re-election — a 20th time for Kaptur and third for Golden, but with less than a percentage point to spare.

Rep. Kaptur was first elected to her Toledo-anchored seat in 1982. She is the fourth-longest serving current House member and second-most senior in the Democratic Conference, behind only former Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD). Redistricting, however, has placed her in a plus-6 Republican district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, which largely explains her tight finish this year. She defeated then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R) by only seven-tenths of a percentage point in November, or a raw vote spread of 2,382 votes.

Maine’s Congressman Golden (D-Lewiston) continues to hang onto the state’s northern seat by small margins despite President Trump carrying the district with large vote spreads. The Pine Tree State’s Ranked Choice Voting system certainly helps Golden, and it did so again in November, largely enabling him to outlast then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R) by 2,706 votes in the RCV round, which translated into 50.3 percent of the vote.

There is a chance that Rep. Golden will enter the open Governor’s race in 2026, so this lean Republican seat could be open for the next election. Theriault is likely to run again, so expect ME-2 once more to become a top GOP conversion target next year.

Tomorrow, we will look at the five remaining House races where the winner failed to reach the 51 percent plateau.

NY Rep. Torres Explains Dems’ Loss

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 24, 2025

2024 Election

President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Some political analysts are saying that the 2024 election could prove to be the launching pad of a national political realignment.

The change in voting patterns, particularly among the working class, minorities, youth, and the highly educated, could be suggesting that we will see a different electoral paradigm develop should the 2024 result prove to be something more than a historical anomaly.

The Free Press news site published an op-ed from New York Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres earlier this week entitled: “The Rising Democratic Coalition Fell. Now What?

The Representative’s piece analyzes why the Democrats lost the 2024 election and how the party can return to its winning ways.

In the op-ed, Rep. Torres highlights how President Donald Trump made inroads in minority communities, and particularly those within the Empire State’s 15th Congressional District, which he represents.

Torres illustrates that his Bronx-anchored district, which is approximately 90 percent minority (of the combined minority voting age population, the percentage breakdown is as follows: 51.4 percent Hispanic; 42.4 percent Black; 4.3 percent Asian; 3.2 percent Other), saw a 22 percent increase in turnout for Donald Trump in 2024 compared to Barack Obama’s re-election performance in 2012. In that year, President Obama received 96 percent of the vote from the precincts that today comprise the 15th CD, while in this election Kamala Harris dropped to a support figure of 74 percent.

Rep. Torres describes Trump’s performance in his district and others like it as being more impressive than the end result in the Rust Belt where the President “connected with” the working class whites from that region.

Torres says: “[President Trump’s] most improbable and formidable feat lies in chipping away at the blue wall in urban America. Few places saw a more impressive swing toward Trump in 2024 than my own deeply Democratic congressional district in the Bronx.”

The Congressman explains his reasoning in the following paragraphs:

The original sin of the new left is that it speaks for people of color without actually speaking to them—and listening. For if the new left actually spoke to people of color, it would never embrace movements like #DefundThePolice, it would never use terms like Latinx or Latine, and it would never have kept the Biden administration from acting decisively to secure the border in the face of an overwhelming migrant crisis that, in the end, cost us the election.

Listening to working-class people of color means unshackling ourselves from self-anointed socialist saviors who speak falsely in their name.

There is a difference between the beliefs of communities of color and the beliefs projected onto those communities by elites. The pattern of mistaking the latter for the former is what has made the Democratic Party lose touch with working-class voters of all backgrounds. (Full story here: The Free Press)

It is probable that we will soon see Torres put his ideas to work in a New York statewide campaign. It is no secret that he is testing the political waters for a 2026 Democratic primary challenge against Gov. Kathy Hochul.

Writing such an article is another signal that Rep. Torres is preparing a gubernatorial run with a strategy of moving closer to the political center in contrast to Gov. Hochul positioning herself on the party’s left flank. While Rep. Torres would be an attractive candidate in a New York general election, it will be most interesting to see if he can win a Democratic primary without being the most liberal contender in the race.

The odds of Torres winning the party nomination may be a bit better than in years past, however. In addition to Gov. Hochul’s low job approval rating, Donald Trump’s 2024 enhanced performance in the state versus the support numbers he garnered in 2020 suggest the Congressman may see a more hospitable electorate.

New York could be on the threshold of at least incremental change. Trump improved his standing in all 51 voting entities when comparing his 2024 performance to that of 2020, but none was stronger (net 11-point increase) than the state of his birth.

House Re-Match Prospects

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 20, 2024

House

Pennsylvania Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown)

Eleven members of the House of Representatives lost their seats on Nov. 5, and several have already said they are open to seeking a re-match in 2026. With such a small majority margin in the new Congress, House control will again be up for grabs in 2026.

The latest to make such a comment is Pennsylvania Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown), who lost to state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Emmaus) by a narrow 50.5 – 49.5 percent majority, or a margin of 4,062 votes from 403,314 ballots cast. Wild said that she is not ruling out returning for a re-match.

Of the 11 defeated members, seven are Republicans as compared to four Democrats. One of the Republicans, Oregon Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, has been nominated as President-Elect Donald Trump’s Secretary of Labor, so she will certainly not be returning for another House race.

California Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) lost the closest House race in the country, falling by just 187 votes. While Duarte said he would consider running for Congress again, he is also being floated as the Director of the Bureau of Reclamation in the Trump Administration.

Those who have made no comment about future plans include Reps. Mike Garcia (R-CA), Yadira Caraveo (D-CO), Brandon Williams (R-NY), and Matt Cartwright (D-PA).

Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) has not made any definitive comments about her future, but she certainly could return to seek a rematch with the man who unseated her, freshman Rep. Nick Begich, III (R).

Looking at a different option, Peltola would likely easily win the Democratic nomination for what will be an open Governor’s position. Incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, so expect a major open-seat battle in this race. Since Alaska voters kept their top four Ranked Choice Voting system, the Democrats have a better chance of scoring an upset win.

While New York Rep. Marc Molinaro (R) has not yet said he would seek a re-match, there is speculation that he could be under consideration to become the Republican nominee in the special election for Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) seat just to the north of his own district.

In New York, special elections do not have primaries. When Ms. Stefanik is confirmed as the US Ambassador to the United Nations the 15 Republican County Chairs will choose the replacement nominee. Therefore, the eventual winner could claim the position with as little as seven votes. The Republican nominee will be favored in the special election, but the New York special election certainly has the potential of becoming competitive.

Two-term California Rep. Michelle Steel (R) is further along the re-match path than any of the others. She has already filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission and is looking to reverse her 653-vote loss to attorney Derek Tran (D). The filing of a campaign committee does not necessarily mean a candidacy will follow, but Steel’s comments suggest that she is making an early commitment to running again.

Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) was the biggest surprise winner of the 2022 election cycle and represented the most Democratic seat in the country to elect a Republican Congressman. He defeated then-Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen, who then returned this year to capture the seat with a two percentage point victory. D’Esposito is another who professes to be open to potentially seeking a re-match.

Regardless of whether we see multiple re-matches from the 2024 campaign, all of the aforementioned politically marginal districts will likely be in play two years from now.

It is likely we will see more seats becoming competitive in two years, but the re-match campaigns will certainly head the A-target lists for both parties.

Blackburn for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024

Governor

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

A surprising political development appears to be unfolding in Tennessee.

The state’s senior Senator, Marsha Blackburn (R), won a resounding 64-34 percent victory on Nov. 5 to secure a second term in her current position. Yet, in an unusual move, she continues to run ads after the election.

Gov. Bill Lee (R) cannot succeed himself in 2026, and the fact that Sen. Blackburn is still advertising suggests that she is testing the waters to enter the open Governor’s race.

Sen. Blackburn has a long and impressive record of winning Volunteer State elections. In addition to her two US Senate victories, Blackburn won eight political contests in a western Tennessee US House district, after serving one four-year term in the state Senate. She has been in elective office consecutively since the beginning of 1999.

Considering her electoral history and seeing Tennessee become such a strong one-party (Republican) state, the odds of Sen. Blackburn winning the governorship, especially when she has a free ride in her second Senate term, becomes a very realistic scenario.

In the past three presidential elections, President-Elect Donald Trump has secured 60.7, 60.7, and 64.2 percent in 2016, 2020, and 2024, respectively. Sen. Bill Hagerty (R) won his initial Senate term in 2020 with 62 percent of the vote. Gov. Lee scored win percentages of 60 and 65 percent in his 2018 and 2022 victorious runs. The state’s electorate has not voted for a Democratic presidential and vice presidential candidate since Bill Clinton and Al Gore were re-elected in 1996, and no Democrat has won a Senate seat since Gore was re-elected in 1990.

Therefore, the chances of the next GOP nominee holding the Tennessee Governor’s office in 2026 are extremely good.

The gubernatorial Republican primary could be a crowded affair and, if so, promises to be hard fought. Already making moves to enter the race is four-term Congressman John Rose (R-Cookeville). Other House members rumored to have an interest are Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) and Mark Green (R-Clarksville). There has also been talk of Sen. Hagerty weighing his chances in a gubernatorial contest.

So far, not a great deal of movement has been perceived coming from the Democratic side. Those considering the Governor’s race include two Memphis state Senators, London Lamar and Raumesh Akbari.

Since Governor is the only elected state position, it is difficult for the party not holding the office to develop a statewide political farm system. With the Republicans securing an 8-1 advantage in the congressional delegation, and without Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) showing interest in running statewide, it becomes very difficult for the Democrats to mount a serious open statewide challenge without a well-known standard bearer.

It will be interesting to see just who moves forward with their own gubernatorial campaign, but should Sen. Blackburn enter the race it’s possible she could freeze the field.

The fact that she continues to run ads to increase her name ID and favorability ratings suggest her jumping into the Governor’s race is a real possibility. Additionally, should she run and win, Blackburn would be able to appoint her own successor in the Senate since she will not have to risk her seat to run in 2026. Therefore, Sen. Blackburn running for Governor would cause the federal GOP officials no hardship.

Senator Schiff? Durbin Retirement Announcement? Rep. Mace Considers Political Future; Republican Challenger to Gov. Shapiro?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024

Senate

Newly appointed California Sen. Adam Schiff (D)

California: Schiff Takes Office — There is a bit of confusion surrounding California Rep. Adam Schiff being sworn into the Senate before the next Congress convenes. In November, Schiff defeated retired baseball player Steve Garvey (R), 59-41 percent, for the regular term. Yet, Senator-Elect Schiff already has been sworn into office as a Senator. This is because appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) resigned the seat after the election as she promised. Butler was appointed to the Senate to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) who passed away in September of 2023.

Schiff, on Nov. 5, also won the special election to fill the balance of the unexpired term. Because of California’s long election certification period, neither the regular term nor the special election results are yet certified; therefore, Gov. Newsom has appointed now-Senator Schiff during the interim.

Illinois: Sen. Durbin to Make Announcement in January — Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), during a CNN interview, indicated he will make an announcement about whether he will seek a sixth term, “after the first of the year.”

Sen. Durbin, now 80 years old, was first elected to the Senate in 1996 after serving seven terms in the US House of Representatives. Should he decide to retire, we can expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form, with the winner of the March 2026 primary becoming a definitive favorite to win the succeeding general election.

South Carolina: Rep. Mace Considering Primary Challenge — Earlier it was reported that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who was just re-elected to a third term, confirmed she is considering entering the open 2026 Governor’s race. She is reportedly also looking at potentially launching another challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham in the ’26 Republican Senatorial primary.

In 2014, Mace, then the first woman to graduate from The Citadel, was one of six Republicans who challenged Sen. Graham, who was then completing his second term. She finished fifth in the field of seven, securing only 6.2 percent of the statewide vote. Sen. Graham won that primary with 56 percent of the vote. While it is clear Mace would attract more support in a 2026 challenge, she would again face an uphill challenge to Sen. Graham who is arguably much stronger with the Republican base than he was in 2014.

Six years later, the Senator faced a major challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison, who would later become Democratic National Committee chairman. Harrison raised an incredible $132 million in his 2020 race against Graham, but the Senator still prevailed with a comfortable 10 percentage point win. At this early stage of the 2026 election cycle, Sen. Graham must again be considered a strong favorite for re-election regardless of what Republican or Democratic opponent might emerge.

Governor

Pennsylvania: Rep. Meuser Contemplating Gov Race — Pennsylvania Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas/Lebanon), who was just re-elected to a fourth term, confirmed earlier this week that he is considering launching a general election challenge to Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). With Gov. Shapiro enjoying positive job approval ratings and rumored as a potential presidential candidate in 2028, the incumbent will be difficult to dislodge.

Therefore, for Republicans, this race looks like a long shot, so it will be interesting to see if Meuser would risk his safe House seat for a difficult statewide run. To date, no one has yet come forward to declare a gubernatorial candidacy.

Primary Challenge to Louisiana Sen. Cassidy; New Jersey Sen. Helmy to Resign; Gray Wins CA-13; Detroit Mayor Duggan Announces for Gov.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 6, 2024

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)

Louisiana: Primary Challenge to Sen. Cassidy Continues to Brew — Earlier, we noted that outgoing Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta is considering launching a 2026 partisan primary challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), and now state treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R) announced he will challenge the senator. Outgoing Congressman Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge), who was the Republican casualty under the state’s new congressional redistricting map, is also mentioned as a possible candidate. Another who is confirming preliminary Senate race interest is Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) who just won a fifth US House term with 71 percent of the vote.

The Louisiana political situation will be different in 2026 because the state is moving away from the top-two jungle primary system for some offices and returning to the partisan primary procedure that most states use. Under the new legislation, races for the US Senate, US House, state school board, Public Service Commission, and state Supreme Court Justices will go to a partisan primary.

The Louisiana Secretary of State has already released a schedule for the new election calendar. The partisan primaries will be held on April 18, 2026. If no candidate receives majority support, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on May 30, 2026.

New Jersey: Sen. Helmy to Resign — New Jersey caretaker Sen. George Helmy (D), who Gov. Phil Murphy (D) appointed to replace resigned Sen. Bob Menendez (D) on an interim basis, announced that he will resign on Sunday. Sen. Helmy is doing so to allow Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who won the general election on Nov. 5, to begin his Senate career early as Gov. Murphy will appoint him to replace Helmy. There are likely to be important lame-duck session votes in the Senate later this month for which Sen-Elect Kim will now participate.

House

CA-13: Gray Wins — Weeks after the election, we finally have all 435 congressional races decided. In northern California’s 13th District, we now see former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) defeating freshman Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) by just 187 votes. There will be no recount. Rep. Duarte will not contest the outcome, and so the closest race in the country draws to a close. Duarte says he hopes to continue serving the public in other ways and is open to again running for Congress. Therefore, we could see a third race between these two in 2026.

The Gray win means the House will divide at 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats, an overall one-seat gain for Democrats from the current Congress. The margin will drop to 217-215 with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) having already resigned from the House and Reps. Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Elise Stefanik (R-NY) soon to be headed into Trump Administration positions. It is likely the House will remain in the 217-215 mode until early April since the special elections for the two Florida seats will occur on April 1.

Governor

Michigan: Mayor Duggan Announces for Governor — Michigan will host one of 15 open governor’s races next year because the incumbents are term-limited, so candidates are already beginning to make moves. Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who switched from the Democratic Party to Independent status earlier this year, is serving his third term having been originally elected at the end of 2013. As of this week, so far the mayor has become the first individual to announce that he will run as an Independent for governor next year.

Duggan is viewed as an effective mayor for a city that had major problems when he assumed office. Coming from the state’s largest municipality, his Independent candidacy could become serious. This means we could see a very interesting three-way Michigan gubernatorial campaign in 2026. Certainly, both the Democrats and Republicans will field their own candidates, so we will likely see a winner crowned with only a plurality victory margin.

One More Race to Go; Miller-Meeks Clinches Victory; Rep. Seth Moulton Under Fire; Alaska Ranked Choice Vote Recount Ordered

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024

House

California Assemblyman Adam Gray

CA-13: Race Down to 143 Votes — The agonizingly slow vote counting process in northern California’s 13th Congressional District continues to produce new totals. Now, Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) has rebounded slightly and trails former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) by just 143 votes. Officials continue to add votes to the aggregate, so it is difficult to say when this contest will be ruled final.

It is now likely, however, that Gray will hold the lead and convert the seat to the Democratic column. It is also probable that should the margin remain this small that a recount will soon follow. If Gray wins, the final House count will be 220R – 215D in a full chamber. When the three Republican vacancies open due to Trump Administration appointments and resignation, the count will drop to 217-215.

IA-1: Rep. Miller-Meeks (R) Clinches Victory — The recount in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District is now complete and the final result ended as expected. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) has now officially won a third term. The recount, requested by opponent Christina Bohannan (D), changed the original vote total by just four votes. Instead of Miller-Meeks winning by 802 votes, the official total will now be adjusted to a 798-vote margin. Interestingly, this is not the closest election of the congresswoman’s career. Her initial victory spread in 2020 was only six votes, so this 798 vote win is a landslide in comparison.

MA-6: Rep. Moulton’s (D) Potential Primary — Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) has been under fire from the far left of his party over comments he made criticizing the practice of allowing biological males to participate in female athletics. The firestorm has caused a possible 2026 Democratic primary opponent to come forward.

Dan Koh, who was chief of staff to former Boston mayor and US Labor Secretary Marty Walsh (D), lost a 3rd District Democratic primary by just 145 votes in 2018 (to current Rep. Lori Trahan) but then rebounded to win a town supervisors race in the Andover locality. Koh was quoted saying he is considering launching a Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Moulton in 2026.

Moulton was first elected in 2014 when he defeated then-Congressman John Tierney in the Democratic primary. He has easily been renominated and re-elected in every succeeding election. In the 2024 cycle, Rep. Moulton faced only write-in candidates in both his primary and general election campaigns. The congressman will be favored in the next election regardless of who opposes him.

States

Alaska: Ranked Choice Recount Ordered — Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who is Alaska’s chief elections officer, has indicated that she will order a recount for the very tight Ranked Choice Voting repeal ballot initiative. By just 664 votes, a small majority of the electorate fought back an effort to squelch the state’s Top Four/Ranked Choice Voting primary system that was adopted in 2020.

A total of 320,574 ballots were cast in the election and the vote opposing repeal was 50.1 percent while those favoring repeal recorded 49.9 percent. The vote total is close enough where the recount could conceivably change the outcome.