Tag Archives: Rep. William Timmons

Endorsing NJ’s First Lady;
GOP Primary Challenge in SC-4; Washington’s Surprising Republican Contender; Louisiana Runoff Results

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 21, 2023

Senate

Tammy Murphy, New Jersey’s First Lady

New Jersey: Tammy Murphy Scoring Key Endorsements — Being New Jersey’s First Lady certainly has its perks. Since announcing her Senate challenge to indicted incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) late last week, Tammy Murphy, the wife of incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D), already has secured four important county party endorsements.

In New Jersey, official county party endorsements mean more than in other states because the favored candidates received substantially better ballot positions in addition to having access to party resources. So far, the state’s two largest Democratic local party organizations, Bergen and Middlesex Counties, along with those in Camden and Hudson, have awarded Ms. Murphy their endorsements.

Additionally, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), who is reportedly testing the waters for a 2025 gubernatorial race when Mr. Murphy is ineligible to seek re-election, became the state’s first sitting US House member to endorse the First Lady. Aside from Sen. Menendez, who has yet to say whether he will seek re-election, US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is in what is already becoming a highly competitive statewide Democratic primary campaign.

House

SC-4: Rep. Timmons Facing Potentially Strong Primary — In 2022, South Carolina Rep. William Timmons (R-Greenville) found himself winning his renomination campaign with just 53 percent of the vote against what were thought to be minor opponents. A highly publicized extra-marital affair that included accusing the congressman of using his office resources to conceal his activity was largely the reason his primary was so close.

On Friday, state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Taylors) announced that he will challenge Rep. Timmons in the June primary election. Since Morgan will be a stronger opponent than any of the three individuals who ran in 2022, the 2024 primary will be one worth watching.

Governor

Washington: PPP’s Surprise Poll — Public Policy Polling again conducted one of their regular Washington statewide surveys for the Northwest Progressive Institute and the results are eye-opening. According to the PPP study (Nov. 14-15; 750 registered Washington voters; multiple sampling techniques), former Congressman Dave Reichert (R) and Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) are tied with 31 percent support apiece.

The shocker comes when the pollsters queried the respondents about who they would support in a general election assuming that both Reichert and Ferguson advance from the all-party jungle primary into the November election. On the ballot test, Reichert enjoyed a 46-44 percent lead over AG Ferguson. It is an astonishing result in that a Republican would post any kind of an advantage in Washington, one of the most Democratic states in the Union.

States

Louisiana: Runoff Election Results — After electing a new governor outright in the Nov. 14 election as Governor-Elect Jeff Landry (R) was able to secure majority support, Republicans finished the 2023 statewide elections with a landslide sweep. The GOP won the secretary of state, attorney general, and state treasurer’s office with between 65 and 67 percent of the vote. Former Congressman John Fleming (R) returns to elective office with his victory as State Treasurer.

Turnout was extremely low with almost 670,000 votes cast, which is just 44 percent of the total participation figure from the last statewide runoff in 2019. In that election, however, the governor’s race was being decided. The lack of the governor and lieutenant governor being forced into runoffs is the obvious reason turnout was down by such a large proportion.

Vance Surges in Ohio; Hill Withdraws in SC-4; Ohio Gov. DeWine With a Double Digit Lead; Term Limits

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 25, 2022

Senate

Author J.D. Vance, Ohio Senate Candidate

Ohio: Vance Tilts Up — After a series of polls from the end of June through early August found US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) leading the Ohio US Senate general election, a second survey this week sees Republican J.D. Vance surging ahead. For the early part of the campaign, Ryan was spending heavily on advertising that Vance and his Republican allies left unchecked, thus largely explaining why the Democrat was able to build a lead. Now that Vance has countered, he has already moved past the veteran congressman.

The new Trafalgar Group survey (Aug. 16-19; 1,087 likely Ohio general election voters; multi-sampling techniques) finds Vance topping Ryan, 50-45 percent. This largely confirms the Emerson College poll released earlier in the week that saw Vance holding a similar 45-42 percent advantage.

SC-4: Rep. Timmons Catches Break — South Carolina Rep. William Timmons (R-Greenville) caught a major re-election break earlier this week when his Democratic opponent, Ken Hill, withdrew from the race. Hill said his business responsibilities, which now require him to spend substantial time in New York, make it impossible for him to continue his congressional campaign.

Rep. Timmons won a closer-than-expected Republican primary in June, avoiding a runoff with just 52.7 percent of the vote, largely due to extramarital affair allegations and related unproven claims that he was improperly using his congressional power. Now, he will run without having a Democratic opponent. Businesswoman Lee Turner (D) says she will run as a write-in candidate, however. Under South Carolina election procedure, it is too late for the Democratic Party to officially replace Hill on the ballot.

Governor

Ohio: Gov. DeWine Leading In Double-Digits — A week after a Lake Research Partners (D) survey found Gov. Mike DeWine (R) edging Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley (D) by a slim 44-43 percent margin, the aforementioned Trafalgar Group Ohio survey (see Ohio Senate above) and an Emerson College poll (Aug. 15-16; 925 likely Ohio general election voters; multi-sampling techniques) see the governor pulling away to a pair of substantial leads. Trafalgar projects a 16-point advantage for Gov. DeWine at 54-38 percent. Emerson College posts a similar 49-33 percent spread.

House

US Term Limits’ Polling Series: Six New August Polls — The US Term Limits organization has been conducting a series of US House polls around the nation. RMG Research conducted the House campaign surveys for the group and released the results of six new polls conducted between July 31 and Aug. 15. All included 400 likely general election voters, but how the polling samples were surveyed was not disclosed.

Of the six August polls, two incumbents were ahead, two were behind, and one was tied. The other study surveyed a North Carolina open-seat electorate. In Arizona, Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix) leads businessman Kelly Cooper (R), 46-39 percent. Washington Rep. Kim Schrier (D-Sammamish) held a 47-43 percent edge over Matt Larkin (R), the 2020 finalist in the attorney general’s race.

The two trailing incumbents are Reps. Susan Wild (D-PA) and David Trone (D-MD). The tied incumbent is Nevada Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas). In the Allentown-Bethlehem district, GOP challenger Lisa Scheller held a 47-43 percent advantage over Wild. Maryland state Delegate Neil Parrott (R-Frederick) topped Rep. Trone, 45-43 percent, while Rep. Horsford and insurance agency owner Sam Peters (R) were tied at 43 percent preference. In the lone released open seat poll, Republican Bo Hines held a 44-39 percent lead over North Carolina state Sen. Wiley Nickel (D-Raleigh).

Rep. Rice Loses in SC;
Flores Converts Seat for GOP in TX

By Jim Ellis — June 16, 2022

Primary Results

South Carolina Rep. Tom Rice (R-Myrtle Beach)

South Carolina: Rep. Tom Rice Loses Re-Nomination — The first of six Republican House members who are seeking re-election and voted to impeach former President Trump went down to defeat Tuesday night. South Carolina Rep. Tom Rice (R-Myrtle Beach) lost outright to Trump’s endorsed candidate, state Rep. Russell Fry (R-Murrell’s Inlet). Fry defeated Rep. Rice, 51-24 percent, with the remaining 25 percent being split among the other five candidates.

Elsewhere, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) defeated Republican primary challenger and 2018 congressional nominee Katie Arrington by a close 53-45 percent, which proved to be a defeat for a Trump endorsed candidate. Fourth District Rep. William Timmons (R-Greenville), in a race that Trump did not affect, was also renominated but only by a 52.7 percent vote share opposite three challengers.

Statewide, both Republican incumbents, Sen. Tim Scott and Gov. Henry McMaster, were easily re-nominated. Gov. McMaster will now face former Congressman Joe Cunningham (D), who won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination outright with 56.5 percent of the vote, while the Democratic Senate candidates fell into a tight three-way finish. Two of the contenders will advance to a runoff election on June 28, presumably author Catherine Bruce and state Rep. Krystle Matthews (D-Ladson).

TX-34: Mayra Flores Converts Seat for GOP — Republican Mayra Flores, a health care professional, won the open special election last night in a 51-43 percent spread over former Cameron County Commissioner Dan Sanchez (D) and two others. The district was left vacant when then-Rep. Filemon Vela (D-Brownsville) resigned from the House to accept a position with a legislative advocacy firm.

Flores’ win will boost the Republican count to 214 in the House, just four away from creating a new majority — but winning a full term in November is a more difficult challenge for her in the regular election. The new 34th is rated 12 points more Democratic than the seat she won last night and will face 15th District Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) in the impending general election.

Gonzalez chose to seek re-election in the new South Texas 34th when Vela announced his retirement, and thus won the party primary in March. We can expect the Republican national political apparatus to pull out all of the stops in an attempt to re-elect Flores in the fall, thus making the 34th CD a political battleground.

Senate

Georgia: Sen. Warnock, Herschel Walker Tied — East Carolina University tested the Georgia electorate (June 6-9; 868 registered Georgia voters) and find Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican challenger Herschel Walker tied at 47 percent apiece. The Georgia race will be one of the key battleground contests in the 2022 general election cycle.

Governor

Georgia: Gov. Kemp Leads Stacey Abrams — The aforementioned East Carolina University poll (see Georgia Senate above) finds Gov. Brian Kemp (R) leading ex-state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D), 50-45 percent, in another race that is expected to go down to the wire. The two fought to a 50.2 – 48.8 percent finish in 2018.

Texas: Abbot Up in Landslide — A new Democratic Blueprint Polling survey of the Texas electorate (June 8-10; 603 likely Texas general election voters) finds Gov. Greg Abbott (R) re-establishing a huge polling lead. In this survey, the ballot test breaks 56-37 percent over former US Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso). Gov. Abbott is seeking a third four-year term.