Tag Archives: Washington

El-Sayed’s Close Primary Win;
Results Wrap-Up From Four States

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 5, 2026

The marquee race of the Aug. 4 primary night – the Michigan Senate Democratic primary race – came down to a small number of votes, which defied the polling projections. Former Wayne County Health/Human/Veterans Department director Abdul El-Sayed was projected late last night as a close winner over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham). The night began with El-Sayed initially tallying up a large lead, but Stevens consistently chipped away until the final El-Sayed margin should be approximately 20,000 votes from more than 1.4 million Democratic primary votes cast.

Nine different July pollsters all forecast a large El-Sayed lead, one where he was averaging just under a 15-percentage point advantage, but the final margin proved razor thin. Abdul El-Sayed now faces former seven-term Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers, who was unopposed in the Republican primary. The Michigan general election is likely to be the key to which party will hold the Senate majority in the new Congress.

Kansas

The open Governor’s race for both parties was the premier draw in last night’s Kansas primary. State Senate President Ty Masterson (R-Andover) was an easy winner for the Republicans, who are aiming to convert the Governor’s office back to their party after what will be eight years of Democratic control under term-limited state chief executive Laura Kelly.

On the Democratic side in a battle between two state Senators, Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park) defeated Gov. Kelly’s endorsed candidate, Ethan Corson (D-Prairie Village). The general election is expected to be competitive. Republican primary turnout exceeded the Democratic numbers, which gives Sen. Masterson a boost as the candidates turn toward November.

Michigan

Beyond the close Senate race, voters chose nominees in the Governor’s campaign. As predicted, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson recorded a landslide victory in the Democratic primary. For the Republicans, Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who has twice come close in statewide campaigns, won the party nomination with just over 50 percent of the vote against three Republican candidates, though one of them ended his active campaign last week.

Looking at the state’s voting history and the strong Democratic primary turnout as compared to the Republican number, Benson will begin the general election race as the favorite.

In the House races, we first look toward the western 4th District. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) will attract more than 80 percent of the final Republican primary vote. His opponent, as expected for the competitive general election, is state Sen. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo), an easy Democratic primary winner.

In the 7th District, which is likely to be the most competitive race in the general election, freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte/Lansing) was unopposed for renomination. His general election opponent will be political activist William Lawrence who scored a 43 percent Democratic primary victory over former US Ambassador Bridget Brink and retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam.

In the open 10th District that Rep. James vacated to run for Governor, National Guard officer and Iraq War veteran Michael Bouchard Jr., son of the long-time Oakland County Sheriff and ex-statewide candidate, recorded a 73 percent victory over three Republican opponents. For the Democrats, in what promises to be a very tight general election, former Macomb County Prosecutor nominee Christina Hines defeated two Democratic opponents with 46 percent of the vote.

Turning to Rep. Stevens’ open 11th District, state Senate President Pro Tempore Jeremy Moss captured 41 percent of the vote against three Democratic opponents to clinch the party nomination. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the general election in a safely Democratic seat.

The 13th District Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) could end in deposing the incumbent. With just under half the vote counted, state Rep. Donovan McKinney (D-Detroit) leads Rep. Thanedar, 51-49 percent, in a race that is still too close to call.

Missouri

With no Senate or Governor’s race on the ballot, the US House races led the ballot.

In the 1st District, former Congresswoman Cori Bush launched a political comeback attempt against the man who defeated her in the 2024 Democratic primary, current Congressman Wesley Bell (D-St. Louis).

Last night, Rep. Bell posted a strong 59-37 percent victory over the former Congresswoman and “Squad” member. Winning the Democratic primary in this St. Louis district is tantamount to claiming the general election, so Rep. Bell is virtually guaranteed re-election in November.

In the redistricted 5th CD, state Sen. Rick Brattin (R-Kansas City) was the clear Republican primary winner. He will now face Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City) in a district that does not resemble the downtown Kansas City seat that the Congressman has represented since the beginning of 2005. Now the 5th District is a Republican seat that stretches into the state’s rural areas, and Rep. Cleaver must be considered an underdog for the general election.

The MO-5 race now becomes a must-win Republican campaign if the GOP is to have a chance at holding their slim national majority.

The open 6th District was decided last night in the Republican primary. There, radio talk show host Chris Stigall, who carried retiring 13-term Congressman Sam Graves’ (R-Tarkio) endorsement, won last night’s Republican primary with 44 percent of the vote over four Republican opponents. Stigall will cruise to victory in the general election from this safe Republican northwestern Missouri congressional seat.

Virginia

In the US Senate race, Republicans chose retired Army Major General Bert Mizusawa to oppose Sen. Mark Warner (D) who is on the ballot for a fourth term. The Senator had no Democratic opposition. Sen. Warner is expected to glide to another November victory. The Senator says this new term will be his last as he will not seek re-election in 2032.

No surprises in the key competitive House races. In the 1st District, Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor easily won the Democratic primary against six Democratic opponents. Taylor will now challenge veteran Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montrose) in the general election.

In the Tidewater-anchored 2nd District, former Rep. Elaine Luria won a landslide Democratic primary victory opposite three opponents. The Luria victory sets up a rematch of the 2022 campaign between she and two-term Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach).

In the mid-state 5th District, another former House member is attempting a political comeback. Former Rep. Tom Perriello scored a big Democratic primary win and will now challenge freshman Rep. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot) who also won renomination in a landslide proportion. In a good sign for Rep. McGuire, Republican primary turnout far exceeded his Democratic counterparts’ participation figure.

In the Alexandria-Arlington 8th District, veteran Rep. Don Beyer (D-Alexandria) won renomination with two-thirds of the Democratic primary vote against four opponents.

Washington

The all-mail Washington ballots were reported quickly, because the state election officials allow the counting and release of the vote totals after the polls close. Therefore, result reporting is quick. Approximately 50 percent of the projected vote total came through early voting.

In the 3rd District, with under 60 percent of the vote counted, it is clear that Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) and state Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R-Chehalis) will advance to the general election. The early vote totals have Rep. Perez and Sen. Braun virtually even, again suggesting that this will be a premier general election campaign and a likely must-win for the GOP if they are to hold the majority.

The open 4th District sees Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney (R) and retired Air Force officer John Duresky advancing to the general election. The open 4th District (Rep. Dan Newhouse-R retiring) is one of two safe Republican seats in the state. This gives McKinney the clear inside track to claiming the general election in November.

In the Spokane-anchored 5th District, freshman Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R-Spokane) captured just about 50 percent of the early vote and has clinched the first general election slot. It appears that Democratic retired US diplomat Carmela Conroy will also advance. Rep. Baumgartner will be favored for re-election.

Primary Preview:
Missouri, Virginia, and Washington

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 4, 2026

In addition to the Michigan primary, which we covered extensively yesterday, three other states, Missouri, Virginia, and Washington, are holding primaries today. Only Virginia features a statewide contest, and even that race is headed for a non‑competitive general election.

>Missouri

The state’s eight congressional campaigns lead the 2026 ballot in the Show Me State. The major primary battles are occurring in Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D‑Kansas City) newly redrawn 5th District and the open 6th District, where Republican voters will choose a successor to retiring Rep. Sam Graves (R‑Tarkio). Additionally, freshman Rep. Wesley Bell (D‑St. Louis) faces a rematch with the woman he defeated in 2024, former US Rep. Cori Bush.

In the St. Louis-anchored 1st District, Rep. Bell is again locked in a tough campaign with former Rep. Bush. Their 2024 contest was bitter, and this year’s race is no different. Bush continues to portray Rep. Bell as aligned with the establishment and too close to Republicans, though the Congressman’s voting record does not support such a claim.

Rep. Bell holds a 3:1 fundraising advantage and is again expected to prevail. The 1st District is now the state’s lone Democratic seat, and it will remain under the party’s control regardless of who wins tonight’s nomination.

In the St. Louis suburban 2nd District, veteran US Rep. Ann Wagner (R‑Ballwin) and Democratic retired Army officer Fred Wellman both appear to be facing only minor opposition for their respective nominations. With a partisan lean of 54.5R – 43.2D (Dave’s Redistricting App), Rep. Wagner has the inside track for November, though Democrats are still expected to invest heavily to support Wellman.

The newly drawn 5th Congressional District was the focal point of Missouri’s 2026 redistricting plan. Its partisan lean shifts from 60.8D – 35.9R to 56.6R – 41.1D, making a Republican victory in November highly likely and placing Rep. Cleaver at serious political risk. This seat is central to GOP hopes of protecting their slim House majority. Six Republicans are competing for the nomination, and three appear viable.

Rep. Graves is retiring after 26 years in Congress and eight years in the Missouri legislature. Tonight’s GOP primary will determine his successor. He has endorsed radio talk show host Chris Stigall, one of five Republicans on the ballot. Stigall’s strongest competitors are Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett and businessman Nathanael Schultz.

Virginia

Sen. Mark Warner (D) is on the ballot for what he says will be the final time. When announcing his 2026 re‑election bid, Warner stated that he intends to retire when the next term ends in early 2033. He is unopposed for renomination, and none of the six Republicans running appear positioned to mount a strong general‑election challenge.

Virginia’s redistricting referendum, despite passing, was nullified in court after judges ruled that the Democratic legislature and Governor violated state constitutional requirements by rushing the measure to the ballot. Lawmakers plan to return with a new referendum in 2027, to run concurrently with the state House and Senate elections. For 2026, the 2021 map remains in effect.

Rep. Rob Wittman’s (R‑Montrose) 1st District is the second‑weakest pro‑Trump seat in the state, though the President still carried the district with a five-point margin. Rep. Wittman’s likely opponent is Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney and 2025 Attorney General candidate Shannon Taylor, who is favored to emerge from her five‑candidate Democratic field. She is expected to run a strong general election campaign, though Rep. Wittman remains favored for 2026. He will, however, be a top target when the 2027 redistricting map is drawn.

In the Virginia Beach-anchored 2nd District, where President Trump narrowly prevailed over Kamala Harris in 2024, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R‑Virginia Beach) is seeking a third term. Her opponent will be former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D), whom she unseated in 2022. The general election promises to be intense and highly competitive meaning it should be considered a toss‑up all the way to Election Day.

For a time, it appeared former Rep. Bob Good would return to challenge freshman Rep. John McGuire (R‑Manakin‑Sabot) in the mid‑state 5th District. Good ultimately declined, leaving Rep. McGuire unopposed in the Republican primary.

The general election, however, features a formidable Democratic candidate: former Rep. Tom Perriello. He would likely have been favored under the new map, so his decision to continue running after the referendum was struck down suggests he may be positioning himself for 2028, when district lines are expected to be more favorable for a Democratic candidate.

In the Alexandria/Arlington-anchored 8th District, veteran Rep. Don Beyer (D‑Alexandria) faces four Democratic challengers in a moderately competitive primary. Rep. Beyer remains a strong favorite, but the candidates may also be positioning themselves for a potential 2028 open seat. Rep. Beyer will be 78 years old at the time of the next election and will be widely viewed as a retirement possibility.

Washington

Washington is one of four states – Alaska, California, and Louisiana are the others – that use a jungle primary format. As a result, voters will not select partisan nominees tonight. Instead, the top two finishers, regardless of party or vote percentage, will advance to the general election.

The most competitive contests are in southwest District 3, where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D‑Skamania County) is attempting to win a third term in a Republican‑leaning district; the open 4th District; and the Spokane‑anchored 5th District.

With resigned Trump appointee Joe Kent not returning for a third attempt in the 3rd CD, Republicans have an opportunity to field a stronger challenger. That candidate is state Senate Minority Leader and retired Navy Captain John Braun (R‑Chehalis), who has led in jungle primary polling. Should Sen. Braun qualify for November, as appears likely, Rep. Perez will face her toughest campaign yet in a seat that is rapidly becoming a must‑win Republican target.

In central Washington District 4, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R‑Sunnyside) is retiring, leaving six Republicans, one Democrat, and four Independents competing for the seat.

Historically, this district has set the precedent of sending two Republicans to the general election, but with only one Democrat on the ballot, retired Air Force officer John Duresky, the chances of his advancing have substantially improved. Republicans are still very likely to hold the seat, potentially with state Sen. Matt Boehnke (R‑Kennewick), though a first‑place finish for Duresky tonight is not out of the question.

In District 5, freshman Rep. Mike Baumgartner (R‑Spokane) is favored for re‑election. The remaining question is whom he will face in November: one of the six Democrats running or one of four Independents. Democrat Carmela Conroy and Independent Nate Powell both have strong prospects of securing the second ballot position needed to challenge the Congressman.

Close Races to Watch

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Continuing our progress reports on competitive federal contests with flip or upset potential, today’s update reviews new polling from one Senate race (Michigan) and three House campaigns, one each in Florida, Nevada, and Washington.

Michigan Senate

The Michigan Democratic primary has undergone significant change within the past 10 days. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow’s (D-Royal Oak) withdrawal leaves Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services Department director Dr. Abdul El‑Sayed competing for her supporters.

Two new polls, conducted during the same period, present sharply different pictures of the race. The Glengariff polling firm that regularly surveys the Michigan electorate (for the Detroit News; July 8-11; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) posts Rep. Stevens to a 48-41 percent lead over Dr. El-Sayed.

The Data for Progress firm, however, sees a much different result. Their survey (for the American Priorities Super Pac; July 10-14; 614 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) projects Dr. El-Sayed as holding a double-digit lead of 54-41 percent. Taken together, the surveys show a net 20‑point swing in the candidates’ respective leads, underscoring how unsettled the primary remains.

Florida’s 14th District

Florida Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) has held a safely Democratic Tampa anchored seat for 20 years, but she now faces the most difficult campaign of her career because of the new Sunshine State redistricting map.

According to Dave’s Redistricting App, the new configuration carries a 55.5R – 43.4D partisan lean – a net shift of nearly 31 points toward the GOP when compared with the 2021 map.

Florida’s primary is Aug. 18, so Castor will not know her Republican opponent for several weeks. A new St. Pete Polls survey (July 14-15; 469 likely FL-14 voters; automated calling and text) projects Rep. Castor to be holding a lead over the two most likely individuals favored to win the GOP primary.

According to the St. Pete data, Rep. Castor leads both former state Rep. Mike Beltran and current state Rep. Kevin Steele (R-Hudson), one of whom is likely to top the field of eight Republican hopefuls. Isolated with Beltran, the Castor advantage is 46-38 percent. If Rep. Steele becomes the party nominee, the early result is an almost identical 46-39 percent.

These early numbers likely reflect Castor’s strong name recognition. Once Republicans choose a nominee and the general election begins in earnest, the race is expected to tighten. FL‑14 is a must‑win for Republicans if they hope to maintain their narrow House majority.

Nevada’s 2nd District

Controversy surrounds Republican nominee David Flippo, a retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel, in Nevada’s safest GOP seat. Critics highlight his recent political history: Flippo ran for Congress in NV‑4 in 2024 and for the state Assembly in a North Las Vegas district in 2022 – both far from the northern, Reno‑anchored NV‑2.

Despite the 2nd District’s strong Republican partisan lean (53.8R – 40.5D, per Dave’s Redistricting App), the new GOP congressional nominee trails in a recent ballot test. A Wedgewood Polls survey (July 9-12; 350 likely voters; online panel) shows former state House Majority Leader Teresa Benitz‑Thompson (D) leading Flippo 48-46 percent.

While the margin suggests a statistical tie, Flippo’s standing represents a significant underperformance in a district that should yield a mid- to high-50s Republican victory in November.

Washington’s 3rd District

Southwest Washington remains one of the GOP’s strongest non‑redistricting conversion opportunities. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D–Skamania County) has twice surprised Republicans by winning a district with a 52.0R – 45.6D partisan lean, but she now faces a more formidable challenger.

State Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R–Chehalis) is the likely general‑election finalist emerging from the Aug. 4 jungle primary. A new Emerson College survey (July 8–10; 500 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) forecasts Sen. Braun as holding a slight edge over Rep. Perez, 45-44 percent.

In the jungle primary, Sen. Braun leads the nine‑candidate field with 26 percent, while Rep. Perez posts 25 percent – a major warning sign for the incumbent. Once the primary concludes, this race is poised to become one of the cycle’s major battles.

Washington Rep. Newhouse to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 19, 2025

House

Washington Congressman Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) / Facebook photo

Central Washington Congressman Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) announced that he will not seek a seventh term next year. Rep. Newhouse’s retirement decision increases the House open-seat count to 48.

Newhouse was originally elected to Congress in 2014 after serving as Director of the Washington Department of Agriculture. His career in electoral politics began with winning a seat in the state House of Representatives in 2002, where he served three-plus terms before being appointed to the agriculture position.

The Congressman averaged 59.3 percent of the vote in his six federal general elections, but under Washington’s jungle qualifying election system three of those contests were opposite another Republican. Rep. Newhouse’s 4th Congressional District is one of two safe Republican seats in Washington; hence, he faced a Republican opponent in three general elections, two when he was first elected and re-elected, and the last one in 2024.

As one of just 10 Republicans to vote in favor of impeaching President Trump in early 2021 over the Jan. 6 situation at the Capitol, Newhouse did face pressure from Republican contenders in both the 2022 and 2024 elections. Of the group of 10 House Republicans, only Rep. Newhouse and California Congressman David Valadao (R-Hanford) remain in office.

While Newhouse fared well in the general election, he did rather poorly in the associated qualifying elections under the jungle system. In the last two such votes, Newhouse only averaged 24.5 percent of the vote within crowded multi-candidate fields.

In 2024, the Congressman finished a full ten percentage points behind Trump-endorsed Republican Jerrod Sessler in the August qualifying election, but he managed to rebound to score a 52-46 percent win in the November general election. Retirement rumors were prevalent regarding Newhouse during the 2024 election cycle, so seeing him not seeking re-election in 2026 is unsurprising.

The 4th District of Washington lies in the central part of the state and stretches from the Canadian border to Oregon. The district contains six counties and parts of two others. In the 2024 presidential election, the WA-4 electorate voted for President Trump over Kamala Harris with a 59.0 – 38.3 percent margin, making it the strongest Trump district in Washington. The major population centers are the cities of Yakima, Kennewick, and Richland, all located in the CD’s southern sector.

We can expect a large Republican field to form with the possibility of again seeing the voters send two party members into the general election. Sessler, who ran in the last two elections, previously announced that he will return for a third campaign and must be viewed as a strong contender to qualify for the general election. Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney (R) had also previously announced her intention to run.

Republican Tiffany Smiley, who challenged Sen. Patty Murray (D) in the 2022 general election and for a time was viewed as having upset potential, eventually lost in a 57-43 percent result. She then entered the 2024 jungle primary to challenge Rep. Newhouse. Smiley finished third in the jungle primary with 19 percent of the vote, thus failing to qualify for the general election. Therefore, it is possible that she will return to again compete for the congressional post. Without Rep. Newhouse in the field, Smiley would be viewed as another potentially strong candidate.

In terms of the national open-seat count, we now see 48 open seats headed to the next election with three special elections coming in late January (TX-18; replacing the late Rep. Sylvester Turner-D), February (NJ-11; replacing Gov-Elect Mikie Sherrill-D), and March (GA-14; replacing soon-to-resign Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene-R). The remaining 45 open seats will all be filled in the regular 2026 election cycle.

From the 48 open seats, a total of 25 Republican members are not seeking re-election, 18 are Democrats, with five new seats created in California and Texas under those states’ new redistricting maps.

Within the subset of 42 serving members who are departing, a total of 15 are opting to retire from elective politics, another 14 are running for Governor of their respective states, 12 are US Senate candidates, and one is competing in an open state Attorney General’s contest, while one member passed away.

Republicans May Have Challenger in WA-3 to Flip Seat From Incumbent Dem

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 23, 2025

House

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) has repeatedly confounded Republicans. She has twice won a southwestern Washington congressional district that is arguably the second-most Republican seat in the country that elects a Democrat to the US House, behind only Rep. Jared Golden’s 2nd District of Maine.

Washington Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R-Centralia)

It appears, however, that the Republicans may have found a stronger candidate for 2026. In the past two elections, Perez has defeated Army veteran Joe Kent (R) who proved himself too extreme for the district’s electorate. Though he is not yet completely confirming that he will be a candidate, most believe that state Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R-Centralia) will formally announce his congressional candidacy sometime this week.

If the Republicans are to hold their slim majority, converting Washington’s 3rd District becomes a must-win. Before Rep. Perez recorded her initial upset victory in 2022, the seat had been under Republican control since the 2010 election.

The Dave’s Redistricting App organization calculates a 52.0R – 46.4D partisan lean. It is one of 13 districts that voted for President Trump in 2024 but reverted to electing or re-electing a Democratic nominee for the House.

Rep. Perez, then a local automotive business owner along with her husband, upset Kent in 2022 with a 50.1 – 49.3 percent victory. This, after six-term incumbent Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler failed to qualify for the general election from the state’s jungle primary. Two years later, despite President Trump carrying the district over Kamala Harris with a 50-47 percent margin, Rep. Perez won re-election, again opposite Kent, with a 52-48 percent spread.

Washington’s 3rd District lies in the southwestern corner of the state and is anchored in the city of Vancouver in Clark County, which lies directly across the Columbia River from Portland, Oregon. In addition to housing all of Clark County, the 3rd encompasses Cowlitz, Lewis, Pacific, and Skamania counties, with part of Thurston. The population is predominantly white, but with a Hispanic Voting Age Population figure of just about nine percent. Hispanics constitute the district’s largest minority group.

John Braun was initially elected to Washington’s state Senate in 2012 and has run unopposed in the next three succeeding campaigns. He was chosen Minority Leader after the 2020 election. Should he make the final decision to run for Congress, Braun would not have to risk his state Senate seat since the 2026 election is the mid-term of his four-year tenure.

Prior to the 2024 election, most political prognosticators were predicting that the Democrats would assume control of the House. The reason Republicans held was due to converting several seats from the Democrats, namely through the new North Carolina redistricting map that yielded three flips, another two in eastern Pennsylvania, and one each in Alaska, Colorado, and an open seat in Michigan. Winning these seats mitigated Republican losses in California, Louisiana, New York, and Oregon.

A similar pattern will have to appear again in 2026 if the GOP is to hold their slim majority. With few conversion opportunities apparent for either party during the early part of this election cycle, the GOP converting the WA-3 seat becomes a paramount district in their plan to hold and potentially expand the current majority.

House, Governor, City & State Wrap up

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 12, 2025

House

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly passed away Wednesday, May 21, 2025.

VA-11 — Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) for Sept. 9. It is now up to the local party congressional district committees to decide upon the type of nomination system to employ. Democrats have chosen the “firehouse primary” option, which features only a few polling places throughout the district. The firehouse special primary is scheduled for June 28. Republicans have yet to decide between a firehouse primary or a party convention.

Democrats will be heavily favored to hold the seat. The leading candidates are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville).

CO-3 — Former Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman announced a primary challenge from the right to freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction). It remains to be seen if this challenge will develop into a serious campaign. Irrespective of the primary situation, Rep. Hurd will be favored for renomination and re-election in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean.

GA-13 — State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) has joined the crowded Democratic primary challenging veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Previously announced major candidates are state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D). While Rep. Scott says he plans to seek a 13th term in the House, he has major health concerns, and the prevailing political opinion is that he will announce his retirement before the state’s March candidate filing deadline.

MD-5 — Saying the 85-year-old longest-serving House Democrat should retire due to his advanced age, public safety consultant Harry Jarin, 35 years old, announced a Democratic primary challenge against former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). For his part, Rep. Hoyer has yet to say whether he will seek a 24th term, but most expect him to run again. He will be 87 years old at the time of the next general election.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father, former US Rep. John J. Cavanaugh, III (D), served two terms in the House during the 1970s, announced that he will run for the congressional seat in 2026. He will face a crowded Democratic primary featuring political consultant Denise Powell, surgeon Mark Johnston, and attorney Van Argyrakis. The eventual nominee will face five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) who says he will announce whether he will seek another term during the summer. Nebraska’s 2nd District continues to be one of the most competitive in the country.

PA-8 — Former six-term Congressman Matt Cartwright (D), who lost his seat last November to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), said he will not return for a re-match next year. This leaves the Democrats with no major candidate in a what is projected to be a competitive 2026 congressional race. Republicans ousted two incumbent Pennsylvania House members in 2024, Reps. Cartwright and Susan Wild (D-Allentown). Neither are forging a comeback attempt next year.

WA-9 — Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a self-identified socialist, announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Adam Smith (D-Bellevue) as an Independent in next year’s general election. Sawant served three terms as an at-large City Councilwoman, leaving office in 2023. She survived a recall attempt in a close 2021 vote. Rep. Smith, the Ranking Minority Member of the House Armed Services Committee, is expected to seek a 16th term and will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Governor

Arizona — A new survey that the American Commitment organization sponsored (May 23-25; 1,147 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) moving into a commanding lead over 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson for the state’s Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the ballot test result, Rep. Biggs would lead Robson, 57-25 percent.

Earlier, Noble Predictive Insights released their general election poll (May 12-16; 1,026 registered Arizona voters; online) and projects Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) to be leading Rep. Biggs 40-38 percent, and Robson by a similar 41-39 percent count. This latter poll confirms what has been expected, that the 2026 Governor’s race will yield another hotly contested political battle.

Connecticut — In a news conference with reporters to discuss the end of the Connecticut legislative session, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) sent clear signals that he is heading toward announcing his candidacy for a third term. The political field has largely been frozen awaiting the Governor’s political decision. Should he announce for re-election, Lamont will be rated as a clear favorite to secure a third term.

Florida — Former Rep. David Jolly, who won a 2014 special election in the Pinellas County seat as a Republican lobbyist but then lost re-election in 2016 to party switcher Charlie Crist (D), became a GOP critic on national news shows. He switched his party identification to Independent after losing the House seat and then moved to the Democratic column.

This week, Jolly announced his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He becomes the first significant Democrat to enter the race. While Jolly may be competitive for his new party’s nomination, Republicans will be favored to hold the Governorship in an open election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa — While most political observers are watching whether state Attorney General Brenna Bird will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary to battle Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) for the party nomination, state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Johnston) announced that he is joining the race. State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) is also a GOP gubernatorial candidate. Democrats are coalescing behind their lone statewide elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third term.

Maine — A newly published Pan Atlantic research firm poll (May 12-26; 840 likely Maine voters; 325 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) finds businessman Angus King, III leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with 33 percent preference. In second place is Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 24 percent. Following is unannounced candidate Hannah Pingree with 20 percent while former state Senate President Troy Jackson posts 13 percent support. King is the son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), while Pingree is Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-North Haven/ Portland) daughter. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

South Carolina — Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins), a former basketball star for the College of Charleston, has formed an exploratory committee to test his chances in the open Governor’s race. Rep. Johnson is the first Democrat to make any move toward running for Governor which will be an uphill open general election race against the eventual Republican nominee.

City & State

Detroit — According to a new Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll that the Glengariff Group conducted (May 27-29; 500 likely Detroit mayoral election voters; live interview), City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) has a large lead to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for Governor as an Independent. The poll results post Sheffield to a 38-14-9-8 percent advantage over local Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), and ex-City Council President Saunteel Jenkins (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 5.

New Orleans — A JMC Analytics poll (May 27-28; 500 likely New Orleans mayoral election voters; live interview) sees New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D) capturing a majority vote for the upcoming open Oct. 11 jungle primary to replace term-limited incumbent LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the polling data, Moreno would lead City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D) 52-23 percent, with no other candidate in close proximity. If no one receives majority support on Oct. 11, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 15 runoff election.

Missouri’s Cori Bush Out in Primary; Other Primary Results From Kansas, Washington, Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Primary Results

Missouri Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis)

Missouri: Rep. Bush Unseated — In an expensive race where the incumbent was heavily outspent, former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell denied two-term Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) renomination by just over 6,800 votes. Rep. Bush is the third incumbent to lose to an intra-party challenger, joining Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Bob Good (R-VA) as defeated incumbents. Rep. Jerry Carl (R-AL) also lost his bid for renomination, but that race was an incumbent pairing due to a new redistricting map.

In the open 3rd District, in a race that winnowed down to two former state senators vying to replace retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth), Bob Onder, armed with an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, saw a late vote surge propel him over Kurt Schaefer for a Republican nomination win, which is tantamount to winning the November election.

In the open governor’s race, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe defeated state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring) and Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft in a close three-way result. Kehoe advances into the general election as the favorite against state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade (D-Springfield). Gov. Mike Parson (R), who endorsed Lt. Gov. Kehoe, was ineligible to seek a third term.

Kansas: Schmidt Clinches GOP Primary — In Kansas’ open 2nd District, former Attorney General and ex-Republican gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt easily won the open Republican nomination. Schmidt was topping the 53 percent mark in a field of five candidates. The former statewide official is now a clear favorite to win the general election and keep the seat in the Republican column.

For the Democrats, former Rep. Nancy Boyda won a close primary with just over 51 percent of the vote in her political comeback attempt. Advancing to the general election, Boyda will be a big underdog to Schmidt in a 2nd District that is much different than the seat she represented for one term 16 years ago. Two-term Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) chose not to seek re-election.

Washington: Rep. Newhouse Trails in Jungle Primary — The Washington jungle primary featured a full slate of races. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) captured first place in the Senate race, with 58 percent at this writing. She will face Republican physician Raul Garcia in the general election. Sen. Cantwell is now a prohibitive favorite to capture a fifth term.

The competitive House races find five-term Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) fighting to finish second in the jungle primary and advance to the general election against retired NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler (R), who was one of two candidates who former President Donald Trump endorsed.

In the state’s southwestern District 3, Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) placed first over technology company executive Joe Kent (R), the man she upset in the general election from two years ago. While she captured just over 10,000 votes compared to Kent, the combined Republican turnout was almost 5,000 votes larger than the Democratic participation figure. Therefore, we can surmise that the Perez-Kent re-match will again end in close fashion, just as in 2022.

In the open 5th District, Spokane County Treasurer Mike Baumgartner (R), who had the backing of most conservative activists, placed first in the crowded jungle primary and will face Democrat Carmela Conroy, the Spokane County Democratic chair, in the general election. Because he drew a Democratic opponent in the general election in this safely Republican seat, Baumgartner is now the clear favorite to succeed retiring Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane).

In the open 6th, with candidates vying to succeed retiring six-term Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor), it appears that two state senators, Emily Randall (D-Bremerton) and Drew MacEwen (R-Union) will advance into the general election. State Land Commissioner Hilary Franz (D) lies about 5,500 votes behind MacEwen. With a large percentage of the vote left unreceived and uncounted, this race is not yet over, but the early numbers suggest the order will not change.

In the governor’s race, Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) easily outpaced former Congressman Dave Reichert (R), but both will advance to the general election. With Democrats comprising 56 percent of the early turnout figure, Ferguson will be difficult to defeat in the November election especially with Vice President Kamala Harris likely to record a big Washington state win over former President Trump.

Michigan: No Surprises — In the open Senate race, both Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) won landslide victories in their respective primaries. A tight general election is expected between these two top performing candidates.

The House races concluded as expected.

In what is sure to be a toss-up general election campaign, both former state senators Tom Barrett (R) and Curtis Hertel (D) were unopposed for their respective party nominations. The November battle will determine Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Lansing) successor.

In the competitive 8th District, as expected state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and former news anchor and two-time congressional nominee Paul Junge (R) won their respective primaries. Both the 7th and 8th districts will carry toss-up ratings into the general election. Overall Democratic turnout in the 8th CD was higher than the Republican participation rate which is a good sign for Rivet especially because, at this writing, GOP statewide turnout is higher than the Democratic number.

In the competitive 10th District, we will see a rematch between former judge and Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), who easily topped a crowded Democratic field, and freshman Rep. John James (R-Fountain Hills). In District 13, freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) turned back two Democratic challengers to virtually clinch a second term.

The Move to Replace Biden; Menendez Found Guilty; McIver Wins NJ-10 Special Election; Jungle Primary Outcome Predicted in Washington

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 17, 2024

President

President Joe Biden at the June 27 CNN debate.

Democratic National Convention: Further Activity to Open Convention — While the move to replace President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee was quieted temporarily in the aftermath of the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, California US Rep. Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael) is now circulating a “Dear Colleague” letter to encourage the Democratic National Committee to forego plans to virtually renominate President Biden. The process is scheduled to begin at the end of the month, but the Huffman proposal would instead allow the nomination roll call vote to occur at the Democratic National Convention as originally planned.

The congressman points out that the delegates should make the nomination decision at the convention to possibly allow another candidate, presumably Vice President Kamala Harris, to emerge as the party nominee, presumably to give the party a better chance of defeating Trump in November. Though delegates are bound by state law, they can, as a matter of conscience, abstain from voting. This could lead to multiple ballots until the various state laws and party rules that bind delegate votes to the candidate whom the state voters supported expire. At that point, the convention would be open to potentially nominate another candidate.

Senate

New Jersey: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) Found Guilty — Sen. Bob Menendez (D/I-NJ) was found guilty of bribery and corruption on all counts yesterday, and key Democratic leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Menendez’s home state governor, Phil Murphy (D), are calling for him to resign.

Other New Jersey officials yesterday making public statements encouraging Sen. Menendez to voluntarily leave office are the state’s junior senator, Cory Booker (D-NJ), Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), the Democratic nominee poised to succeed Menendez in the November election, developer Curtis Bashaw, the Republican US Senate nominee, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop (D), an announced 2025 gubernatorial candidate.

Should Menendez soon depart the Senate either through resignation or expulsion, Gov. Murphy has already said that he will make a caretaker appointment to immediately fill the seat. By losing Menendez, the Democratic majority would retreat to 50D-49R division for the short term.

House

NJ-10: McIver Wins Special Election — Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-Newark) passed away in late April leaving the 10th District temporarily unrepresented. Last night, as expected, Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver easily won the special Democratic primary over four opponents. She becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the Sept. 18 special general election and will then assume the seat to serve the remaining balance of the current term.

The local 10th Congressional District Democratic Committee will meet later this week to choose a regular election nominee. Though deceased, Payne posthumously won the Democratic primary, so now the party committee must replace him. The meeting was scheduled after the special primary so the committee could simply appoint the person who won the special primary as the nominee for the regular term.

Governor

Washington: Poll Predicts Jungle Primary Outcome — Survey USA just released a new Washington gubernatorial poll for KING-TV Channel 5 in Seattle, the Seattle Times newspaper, and the University of Washington Center for an Informed Public (July 10-13; 564 likely Washington jungle primary voters).

S-USA finds Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) leading the open all-party primary field with a 42 percent preference figure. Also predicted to qualify for the general election is former US representative and ex-King County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R) who garnered 33 percent support. Next in the 28-candidate field is former School Board Member Semi Bird (R) with 11 percent, and state Sen. Mark Mullet (D-Issaquah) who posts four percent backing. The Washington primary is scheduled for Aug. 6. Gov. Jay Inslee (D) chose not to seek election to a fourth term.

Significant Lead for Alsobrooks in Maryland; Senate Race Tightens in Nevada; Cori Bush in Dead Heat; Another Dead Heat in WA-3

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 27, 2024

Senate

Angela Alsobrooks

Maryland: Alsobrooks Develops Significant Lead — A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) opening an advantage over ex-Gov. Larry Hogan (R) despite his favorable ratings.

The PPP survey (June 19-20; 635 Maryland voters) sees Alsobrooks leading Hogan and a series of independents and minor party candidates (cumulatively), 45-34-5 percent. In a head-to-head ballot test, she leads Hogan 48-40 percent. This, despite a positive Hogan favorability index of 50:33 percent. The biggest drag for Hogan is from the top of the Maryland ticket where President Joe Biden leads former President Donald Trump, 56-30 percent.

Nevada: Race Tightens — A new survey from a Democratic and Republican polling team finds a closer Senate race than the Emerson College poll conducted during the same period. The Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) survey, commissioned for AARP (June 12-18; 600 likely Nevada general election voters; live interview & text) sees Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), riding a media ad blitz, leading Republican Sam Brown, 47-42 percent, while former President Trump has a 44-37-10 percent advantage over President Biden and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I).

Conversely, Emerson College’s study (June 13-18; 1,000 registered Nevada voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Sen. Rosen with a much larger lead over Brown, 50-38 percent. While there is a clear advantage for Sen. Rosen in the most recent polling, this race will still be highly competitive come November.

House

MO-1: Rep. Bush in Dead Heat –– The Mellman Group, conducting a survey for the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC (June 18-22; 400 registered MO-1 Democratic voters; live interview & text), sees challenger Wesley Bell, a former St. Louis County prosecutor, pulling into a one point, 43-42 percent, lead over Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis), a member of the Socialist Democrat “Squad.” The Mellman analysis finds that Bell has closed the gap against the incumbent since January, seeing a net 17-point swing in his favor.

We can expect heavy outside spending coming into the district before the Aug. 6 primary. The pro-Israel organizations were successful in helping to defeat another Squad member, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), in Tuesday night’s Democratic primary. Rep. Bush is another of the most anti-Israel congressional members and a top target of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and the DMFI PAC.

WA-3: Dead Heat Poll — A new Public Policy Polling survey, regularly conducted for the Northwest Progressive Institute (June 11-12; 649 registered WA-3 voters; live interview & text), sees Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) trailing 2022 general election finalist Joe Kent (R), by a 46-45 percent dead heat margin.

Washington’s 3rd District, which lies in the far southwestern corner of the state and anchored in the city of Vancouver, is the second-most Republican district that a US House Democrat represents. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+11. In 2022, Perez defeated Kent by less than a percentage point in one of the biggest upsets of that election year. The 2024 rematch, which is likely to occur after the state’s Aug. 6 jungle primary, portends to be just as close.

Sen. Scott Expands Lead; Nevada Propositions Won’t Make Ballot; Four NY-3 Candidates Disqualified; Three Bob Fergusons on Ballot

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 13, 2024

Senate

Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R)

Florida: Sen. Scott Expands Lead — Cherry Communications was in the field testing several Florida races for the state Chamber of Commerce (April 28-May 7; 609 likely Florida general election voters; live interview) and despite claims from Democratic Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel Powell in fundraising messages that her race is even, this poll confirms otherwise. In reality, Sen. Rick Scott (R) has a major advantage over the likely Democratic nominee. According to the Cherry/Chamber poll, Sen. Scott commands a 54-39 percent lead.

The Scott performance is even larger than former President Donald Trump’s showing in the same poll. On the presidential ballot test, Trump holds a 51-42 percent edge over President Joe Biden. Additionally, when Sen. Scott was last on the ballot in 2018 and won by just over 10,000 votes statewide, the Democrats had a voter registration edge. Now, the Republican registration advantage has soared to over 900,000 individuals.

House

Nevada: No Redistricting Ballot Propositions — On Friday, the Nevada state Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling striking down two proposed ballot initiatives that would have allowed citizens to determine if a redistricting commission would be created. The court ruled that the propositions did not include provisions to demonstrate how the initiative would develop a revenue stream to pay for the program as required in Nevada law.

Therefore, no redistricting law changes will be on the ballot in 2024. Also under Nevada election law, in order to become law, propositions must receive majority support in two separate elections. Therefore, time remains for proponents to qualify a pair of propositions in future elections to change the redistricting system before the 2030 census.

NY-3: GOP Candidates Disqualified — Four Republican candidates attempting to challenge returning New York US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) have been disqualified. This leaves former state Assemblyman Mike LiPetri, the local party-endorsed candidate, as the lone Republican contender. None of the others submitted the proper number of valid petition signatures, which is the typical reason candidates fail to make the ballot.

LiPetri has yet to initiate a fundraising mechanism for his campaign, but now he will be unopposed for the party nomination in the June 25 Republican primary. Though expelled Rep. George Santos (R) won the seat in 2022, the district leans Democratic. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.9D – 47.4R partisan lean for the new district adjusted in the 2024 redistricting round.

NY-3 was one of four Democratic districts that went Republican for the US House in 2022 which, along with a similar four seats in California, will go a long way to determining whether Democrats or Republicans claim the majority in the 2024 general election.

Governor

Washington: The Three Bob Fergusons — Evergreen State Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) is the leading candidate to replace retiring Gov. Jay Inslee (D), but he has a new problem as we move closer to the May 24 candidate filing deadline. Two other Democrats, also named Bob Ferguson, are in the process of filing. Attorney General Ferguson is appealing to the secretary of state for help. There is an oddity that will be investigated. The new Bob Fergusons are registering at the same address, and one person, Glen Morgan, says he is the campaign manager for both of the challenging Fergusons.

The Washington gubernatorial ballot will be confusing enough without featuring three Bob Fergusons. The state uses the jungle primary system, meaning all candidates are on the same ballot. At this point, 30 individuals, including a dozen Democrats, eight Republicans, eight Independents, one Green, and one Libertarian, have drawn documents to file for governor. So, in such a crowded field, so many Bob Fergusons could cause the attorney general additional confusion problems.