Tag Archives: Neil Parrott

An Unusual DeSantis Trend;
A Returning MD-6 Candidate;
A Big Lead for Dem Candidate in Oregon; Trouble in UT-2

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 30, 2023

President

Wisconsin Poll: DeSantis Pulls Within One of Trump — A new Marquette University Law School regular Wisconsin poll finds an unusual trend developing. In this survey (June 8-13; 913 registered Wisconsin voters; 419 self-identified Republicans; live interview), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has pulled to within one point of former President Donald Trump, 31-30 percent in terms of first choice preference, a margin not seen in any other state with the exception of the governor’s home domain. Former Vice President Mike Pence and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott are third and fourth with six and five percent support.

In a general election pairing with President Joe Biden, Gov. DeSantis pulls to within the polling margin of error, trailing 47-45 percent. Ex-President Trump fares considerably worse. Biden would lead this match-up by a substantial 52-43 percent margin. It remains to be seen if the closeness of this poll is an anomaly, or the beginning of a new trend.

House

Maryland Ex-Delegate Neil Parrott

MD-6: Ex-Delegate Parrott to Return — Former state Delegate Neil Parrott (R), who twice lost to Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), announced earlier in the week that he will return for a third congressional run. Rep. Trone has already declared for the state’s open Senate race, meaning the politically marginal western Maryland 6th Congressional District is also open. Post-redistricting, the 6th became more competitive, so Parrott’s 55-45 percent loss to Rep. Trone was an under-performance.

In 2024, however, the former congressional nominee will face at least four other Republicans, including a fellow ex-Delegate, Brenda Thiam. Five Democrats have announced for the seat, including two sitting Montgomery County state Delegates, Joe Vogel and Lesley Lopez. In the general election, this seat could evolve into a toss-up race.

OR-5: 2022 Nominee Posting Big Dem Primary Lead — Freshman Oregon Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) scored one of the biggest upset victories of the 2022 election cycle when she defeated Democratic nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) to capture the 5th District seat with a 51-49 percent margin. McLeod-Skinner had unseated then-US Rep. Kurt Schrader in the May Democratic primary.

In a politically marginal district that the FiveThirtyEight organization rates D+2, three credible individuals have already declared their candidacies, state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Happy Valley), Oregon Metro Council President Lynn Peterson, and former congressional aide Kevin Easton. McLeod-Skinner confirms she is “seriously considering” running again, and now is releasing an early June poll that posts her to a big lead in a hypothetical Democratic primary among the four early contenders.

According to the GBAO Strategies’ poll (May 30-June 1; 400 likely Democratic OR-5 primary voters), McLeod-Skinner would lead Bynum, Peterson, and Easton, 50-9-5-4 percent. No numbers were released for how any of these Democratic candidates would pair with Rep. Chavez-DeRemer. In any event, we can expect another close general election race here in 2024.

UT-2: Trouble Brewing — A story is running in the Salt Lake Tribune newspaper that special Republican Party convention winner Celeste Maloy, legal counsel to resigning Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington), may not have met the legal requirements to become a candidate. During her time in Rep. Stewart’s DC office, she did not vote in Utah, thus was placed on the inactive voter list. She re-registered in Utah after the special election candidate filing deadline. During her time living in Virginia, she registered to vote and cast ballots in Old Dominion elections.

Republican Party officials say there is no requirement to be a qualified voter to compete in the special election, but state law appears to say something quite different. Some of the Republican candidates who failed to win the recent party convention may file a lawsuit to overturn the results.

At this point, it appears that two candidates, former state Rep. Becky Edwards and ex-Republican National Committeeman Bruce Hough, may meet the petition signature requirement to enter the special election primary that is scheduled for Sept. 5. The special general is calendared for Nov. 21. Rep. Stewart will resign his seat on Sept. 15.

DeSantis Trails in New Poll; Sen. Casey Expands Lead in PA; A Pastor Looks to Run in CA-41; Defeated Gov Candidate Interested in MD-6 House Race; Washington State Gov Candidate

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 15, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)

Florida: DeSantis Trails in New Poll — A National Research, Inc. survey of Florida Republican voters (May 8-9; 500 likely Florida Republican primary voters; live interview & text) for the first time found Gov. Ron DeSantis trailing in his home state. According to these results, which the DeSantis Super PACs will undoubtedly soon counter, former President Donald Trump has taken a 42-34 percent lead over Gov. DeSantis, with no other candidate even reaching three percent. A total of 16 percent claim to be undecided in the early part of the presidential race.

This poll again underscores Trump’s current strength in the party primaries. The trend could change, however, when Gov. DeSantis officially begins his national campaign.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Expands Lead — Susquehanna Polling & Research returned a new Keystone State survey (May 2-8; 700 likely Pennsylvania voters) testing the upcoming US Senate race. Though former hedge fund CEO and 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick (R) is not yet an announced candidate, he was the only person tested against Sen. Bob Casey. The ballot test yielded the incumbent a stronger twelve-point lead, 53-41 percent. The previous published poll, from Franklin & Marshall College in early April, projected a 42-35 percent Casey edge.

House

CA-41: Party Switcher Enters Race Against Rep. Calvert — Pastor and San Jacinto City Councilman Brian Hawkins is looking to make a second run for Congress, but it will be in a different district and under a different party banner. Rev. Hawkins was the Republican nominee against Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Indio) in the new 25th District last November. He drew 42.6 percent of the vote. Now, however, he has popped up in District 41, wanting to run as a Democrat in hope of challenging veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) in next year’s general election.

Already declared under the Democratic label is Lake Elsinore City Councilman Tim Sheridan, but the potential candidate the area politicos are watching is 2022 nominee Will Rollins (D) who held Rep. Calvert to a 52-48 percent victory. Most believe Rollins will return and be favored to advance into the general election with the congressman. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 41st District as R+7. Former President Donald Trump carried the seat with a bare 50-49 percent margin over current President Biden.

MD-6: Defeated Gov Candidate Showing Interest in Open House Race — Former state Delegate Dan Cox (R), who was not much of a factor in the 2022 Maryland governor’s race in losing to author Wes Moore (D) by a 65-32 percent margin, said this week that he may have interest in entering the open 6th District congressional race that includes his home city of Frederick. Former state Delegate Neil Parrott, also from Frederick and who lost the last two congressional races against incumbent Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), is also looking at a third run.

Both men come from the right wing of the Republican Party. This means they could split the primary vote, thus allowing a more moderate candidate who would likely fare better in the general election to claim the party nomination. With Rep. Trone vacating the seat to run for the Senate, this open seat will attract national attention in what promises to be a hotly contested battle for the House majority.

Governor

Washington: Second Candidate Announces — State Land Commissioner Hilary Franz (D) became the second announced gubernatorial candidate after three-term incumbent Jay Inslee (D) made public his intention not to seek re-election next year. Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) was first to take such action, indicating that he filed an “exploratory committee.” Since Washington election law does not recognize exploratory committees, he is officially considered a candidate.

The Washington all-party jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024. The top two finishers, possibly a pair of Democrats, will advance into the general election.

Millionaire Candidate in Florida; Moreno for Senate, Again; MD-6 News; Chicago, the Dem’s Kind of Town

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 13, 2023

Senate

Independent Florida businessman Keith Gross

Florida: Sen. Scott Draws Millionaire GOP Opponent — As has been expected for weeks, independent businessman Keith Gross announced his US Senate candidacy against Sen. Rick Scott (R). Gross, a multi-millionaire, will challenge Sen. Scott in the Republican primary. He is clearly running as a conservative, based upon the rhetoric in his announcement video, but it will not be easy getting to the right of Sen. Scott.

Though Gross is capable of self-financing his campaign, resources will not be an issue for Sen. Scott. Then, as Florida’s governor, Scott, not counting money raised, spent $64 million of his own money for the 2018 Senate campaign. The primary challenge could, however, spur a potentially stronger Democratic opponent to come forth, thinking the nomination battle might weaken the incumbent. Therefore, this August 2024 Republican primary will draw national attention.

Ohio: Bernie Moreno Again — In 2022, wealthy Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno (R) entered the open US Senate race but dropped out before the May primary when it became clear he could not win the race. With state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) as the only 2024 announced candidate to challenge Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), and the lone returning 2022 contender, Moreno has again chosen to throw his hat into the ring.

Others are expected to join the race, which will more than likely mean another crowded multi-candidate field, just as we saw a year ago when author and now Sen. J.D. Vance (R) rose to claim the nomination in May and eventually the seat in November. The Ohio race is one of the Republicans’ top national conversion targets.

House

MD-6: Republican Returning for Another Try — US Air Force veteran Mariela Roca, who finished third in a six-way 2022 Republican congressional primary, announced that she will again run in her western Maryland district next year. The 6th District, which the court-drawn plan made more Republican by removing a huge section of Montgomery County, appeared headed for a close finish between Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) and state Delegate Neil Parrott (R-Frederick). After the late votes were recorded, however, Rep. Trone recorded a substantial 55-45 percent victory, a margin of almost 25,000 votes.

In an open seat situation, however, this could become a highly competitive district. Sen. Ben Cardin (D) — who will be 81 years old before the next election — says he will decide shortly if he will seek a fourth term. This, after serving 20 years in the US House and another 20 years in the Maryland House of Delegates.

Should Sen. Cardin opt to retire, Rep. Trone would be a prime prospect to jump into an open Senate race. If these events occur, then the 6th District is sure to feature competitive Democratic and Republican primaries, and a tight general election.

Cities

Democratic National Committee: Chooses Chicago — For the 12th time, the Democratic National Committee has selected Chicago to host its national convention. The 2024 gathering will be the 50th such national conclave. A total of 18 cities have held the 50 Democratic conventions, with Chicago doing so most often. Eight others have hosted more than one: Baltimore (9), New York (5), St. Louis (4), and Philadelphia (3), with two each for Cincinnati, Denver, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. Late last year, the Republicans chose Milwaukee as the site of their 2024 national convention.

Not So Close in Maryland; Sen. Murray Pulling Away in Washington; de Blasio Out in New York

By Jim Ellis — July 21, 2022

Primary Results

Maryland: Not So Close — Though polling was suggesting that several close races would be present on the Maryland primary ballot, it appears none materialized Tuesday night. Approximately 40 percent of the Democratic ballots and 20 percent of the GOP’s tallies still remain to be counted, and it will be several days until we see final totals, but the margins from the various races are such that they are unlikely to reverse any finishing order.

It appears that author and anti-poverty activist Wes Moore will win the Democratic gubernatorial primary. At this writing, he has almost a full 10-percentage point lead over his closest rival, former labor secretary and ex-Democratic National Committee chairman Tom Perez, with state Comptroller Peter Franchot now a distant third.

Claiming the Democratic nomination makes him a prohibitive general election favorite against Donald Trump-backed state Delegate Dan Cox (R-Frederick) who clinched the Republican primary over former state Commerce Department Secretary Kelly Schulz. Assuming a November win, Moore will become Maryland’s 63rd governor and first African American to hold the post. He would replace term-limited Gov. Larry Hogan (R), who is ineligible to run again because of the state’s term-limited law.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen was a landslide Democratic primary winner as expected. He will face Republican activist and home-building contractor Chris Chaffee in what should be an easy re-election run for the incumbent.

US Rep. Anthony Brown (D-Bowie) also was easily nominated as the Democratic candidate for attorney general in another race polling projected as trending close. Rep. Brown has so far claimed approximately 60 percent of the vote against retired district judge Katie Curran O’Malley (D), wife of former governor and presidential candidate Martin O’Malley.

Tuesday night’s competitive US House races saw the open 4th District going to ex-Prince Georges State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey, who surprisingly easily defeated former US Rep. Donna Edwards (D). The ex-House member, who served nine years after winning a special election in 2008, was attempting a political comeback after losing the 2016 US Senate Democratic primary to Van Hollen.

In the 6th District, State Delegate and 2020 Republican nominee Neil Parrott easily defeated journalist Matthew Foldi who attracted support from Gov. Hogan and other key GOP leaders. Parrott will again challenge Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), but now in a district that is more favorable to a Republican candidate.

Senate

Washington: Sen. Murray Pulling Away — For the second time in a matter of days, a poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) re-establishing a strong lead in her 2022 re-election effort after earlier surveys were projecting a tight race. Elway Research (July 7-11; 400 registered Washington voters; live interview & text) projects Sen. Murray to be holding a 51-33 percent lead over veterans advocate and former nurse Tiffany Smiley (R). The result is almost identical to the Survey USA poll that was conducted during the same period. The S-USA data found a 53-33 percent Murray advantage. The confirming Elway result suggests the two pollsters are detecting a positive response to the recent Murray ad blitz.

House

NY-10: de Blasio Out — After two released polls from progressive left survey research firms found him stuck in low single digits for his US House run, former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) has ended his congressional effort. In a video message thanking people for their help and support, de Blasio indicated that since it is clear the people of the new 10th District prefer a different direction, it is time that he found a different way to serve. Therefore, de Blasio says he will exit elective politics.

Though the former city chief executive won two terms as New York’s mayor, he met a similar fate in short-lived bids for president and governor. With 100 percent name identification according to both Data for Progress and Justice Research, de Blasio managed a preference factor of only five and three percent in the two polls.

Redistricting

Ohio: State Supreme Court Strikes Again — Continuing the fight between the Ohio Supreme Court and the Buckeye State legislature, the high court again struck down the enacted congressional map as a partisan gerrymander, once more on a 4-3 ruling, and mandated that the plan be re-drawn for the 2024 election. It is likely that the US Supreme Court will issue a ruling on partisan gerrymandering at some point next year, which may make the Ohio decision moot. This ruling does not affect the 2022 election cycle, which will be run under the plan that the court just struck down.

States

Missouri: No Top Four — The grassroots organization attempting to convert the Missouri primary system into a Top-Four jungle primary format a la Alaska, has failed to qualify for the November initiative ballot. Though the group recruited more than 300,000 signatures, they failed to reach the mandated number of verified petition signatures in each of the state’s eight congressional districts. The organizers vowed to mount a similar effort for the 2024 election.

The Top-Four system, used only in Alaska and for the first time in the 2022 election cycle, features a jungle primary that includes all candidates on the same ballot. The top four candidates then advance to the general election regardless of party preference and vote percentage attained. Once the four general election finalists are determined, the system converts to Ranked Choice Voting System, where voters prioritize their candidate choices from 1-4. Contenders are eliminated once one reaches the 50 percent mark.