Tag Archives: Democratic National Convention

The Move to Replace Biden; Menendez Found Guilty; McIver Wins NJ-10 Special Election; Jungle Primary Outcome Predicted in Washington

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 17, 2024

President

President Joe Biden at the June 27 CNN debate.

Democratic National Convention: Further Activity to Open Convention — While the move to replace President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee was quieted temporarily in the aftermath of the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, California US Rep. Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael) is now circulating a “Dear Colleague” letter to encourage the Democratic National Committee to forego plans to virtually renominate President Biden. The process is scheduled to begin at the end of the month, but the Huffman proposal would instead allow the nomination roll call vote to occur at the Democratic National Convention as originally planned.

The congressman points out that the delegates should make the nomination decision at the convention to possibly allow another candidate, presumably Vice President Kamala Harris, to emerge as the party nominee, presumably to give the party a better chance of defeating Trump in November. Though delegates are bound by state law, they can, as a matter of conscience, abstain from voting. This could lead to multiple ballots until the various state laws and party rules that bind delegate votes to the candidate whom the state voters supported expire. At that point, the convention would be open to potentially nominate another candidate.

Senate

New Jersey: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) Found Guilty — Sen. Bob Menendez (D/I-NJ) was found guilty of bribery and corruption on all counts yesterday, and key Democratic leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Menendez’s home state governor, Phil Murphy (D), are calling for him to resign.

Other New Jersey officials yesterday making public statements encouraging Sen. Menendez to voluntarily leave office are the state’s junior senator, Cory Booker (D-NJ), Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), the Democratic nominee poised to succeed Menendez in the November election, developer Curtis Bashaw, the Republican US Senate nominee, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop (D), an announced 2025 gubernatorial candidate.

Should Menendez soon depart the Senate either through resignation or expulsion, Gov. Murphy has already said that he will make a caretaker appointment to immediately fill the seat. By losing Menendez, the Democratic majority would retreat to 50D-49R division for the short term.

House

NJ-10: McIver Wins Special Election — Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-Newark) passed away in late April leaving the 10th District temporarily unrepresented. Last night, as expected, Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver easily won the special Democratic primary over four opponents. She becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the Sept. 18 special general election and will then assume the seat to serve the remaining balance of the current term.

The local 10th Congressional District Democratic Committee will meet later this week to choose a regular election nominee. Though deceased, Payne posthumously won the Democratic primary, so now the party committee must replace him. The meeting was scheduled after the special primary so the committee could simply appoint the person who won the special primary as the nominee for the regular term.

Governor

Washington: Poll Predicts Jungle Primary Outcome — Survey USA just released a new Washington gubernatorial poll for KING-TV Channel 5 in Seattle, the Seattle Times newspaper, and the University of Washington Center for an Informed Public (July 10-13; 564 likely Washington jungle primary voters).

S-USA finds Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) leading the open all-party primary field with a 42 percent preference figure. Also predicted to qualify for the general election is former US representative and ex-King County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R) who garnered 33 percent support. Next in the 28-candidate field is former School Board Member Semi Bird (R) with 11 percent, and state Sen. Mark Mullet (D-Issaquah) who posts four percent backing. The Washington primary is scheduled for Aug. 6. Gov. Jay Inslee (D) chose not to seek election to a fourth term.

Biden Still in Driver’s Seat, But Down in New York; Maloy Still Struggles in Utah; Filing Closes in Delaware

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 12, 2024

President

President Joe Biden / Photo by Gage Skidmore

President Biden: Still in the Driver’s Seat — While pressure continues to mount on President Joe Biden to withdraw from his re-election candidacy, some still believe there is a way to change the rules at the Democratic National Convention to allow a free vote of the delegates. Doing so will be highly unlikely, however, because Biden’s total delegate vote includes 1,581 individuals not bound by party rules but rather state law. Therefore, those delegates will not be free.

To win the party nomination, a candidate must have 1,968 votes. This means from the remaining delegates, the president would need only keep 387 of the “freed” 2,368 delegates who are already pledged to vote for him. This factors into just 16.3 percent of the non-state law bound delegates.

The party would also have the option of changing the convention rules to allow the Super Delegates to vote on the first ballot, something they cannot currently do. The Super Delegates are officially called PLEO (Party Leader Elected Official) votes. There are 747 of these individuals. To add them, however, the non-PLEO delegates would have to vote to dilute their own power. It is unlikely a majority of the non-PLEO delegates will vote in such a manner even if this unlikely choice is presented.

House

New York: Biden’s Poll Deficit — The political situation continues to deteriorate for President Biden. As reported on X from journalist Jacqueline Sweet, Democratic polls that won’t be published apparently report that the president is trailing in two potential Democratic conversion districts by double-digit margins, seats that he carried in 2020.

The two are NY-17 and NY-19 that freshmen Reps. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) and Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook) currently represent and won with close margins. As a point of reference, Biden carried the 17th with a 54-44 percent margin in 2020, and a 51-47 percent split in NY-19.

UT-2: Canvass Period Begins; Recount to Follow — Utah US Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) is not out of the woods yet from her close Republican primary race against businessman Colby Jenkins, conducted on June 25. The Utah election officials finally finished the end count, and what was a 309-vote margin for Maloy has dropped to 214 votes.

The process is not yet finished. The election staff must conduct a canvass to certify a final vote. Since the current margin is now within the range where a recount can be requested, Jenkins says he will do so after the canvass. This means the counting and recounting process could drag on until the end of July.

States

Delaware: Candidate Filing Closes — Candidate filing has now closed for the late Delaware primary scheduled for Sept. 10. Though the state features an open Senate and at-large House seat, little in the way of competition will be seen either in the Democratic primary or general election.

US Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington) is a lock for the party nomination and the November election and will replace retiring Sen. Tom Carper (D) in the next Congress. State Sen. Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington) is the prohibitive favorite to win the party primary and the November election to replace Rep. Blunt Rochester. Upon election, she will become the first transgender individual elected to Congress.

The only competition appears to occur in the open governor’s race as incumbent John Carney (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long, New Castle County Executive Matt Mayer, and National Wildlife Federation CEO Collin O’Mara are all competing for the Democratic nomination. The eventual primary winner will then punch his or her ticket to the governor’s mansion.

Within a Week . . .

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 27, 2020 — Now, just two days away from the South Carolina primary and a mere five from Super Tuesday, it’s time to again determine candidate progress for what is arguably the most important primary election day of this presidential nomination cycle.


Currently, now that the Nevada Democratic Party has ostensibly tabulated the remaining caucus preference sheets from last Saturday’s Nevada vote, the aggregate bound delegate count gives Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) the lead with 45, former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg is second at 26, former vice president Joe Biden posts 15, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) eight, and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar holds seven. These numbers will change significantly by this time next week. A total of 1,398 delegate votes will be bound on Super Tuesday evening and 18 states and one territory will have completed their voting process.

We’ve had some polling movement in several of the Super Tuesday states that make a tight race even closer. North Carolina, with 110 first ballot delegates, at least according to one polling firm has lapsed into a three-way tie. Spry Strategies (Feb. 21-23; 561 likely North Carolina Democratic primary voters) finds former VP Biden, ex-New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, and Sen. Sanders locked into a three-way tie, each with 20 percent support. None of the other candidates appear close to the 15 percent delegate allocation threshold in the Tar Heel State.

The new Public Policy Polling North Carolina survey turns in similar numbers (Feb. 23-24; 852 likely North Carolina Democratic primary voters) with Biden leading Sanders and Bloomberg, 23-20-17 percent, respectively. PPP agrees with Spry in projecting that only these three men will qualify for delegates. Such a split, assuming the congressional delegation allocation yields the same ratio, would find each of the three candidates receiving approximately 35-37 first-ballot votes.

The latest YouGov poll (Feb. 6-18; 1,352 likely Texas Democratic primary voters; online) also finds a tie, but this time in the Lone Star State with again three candidates winning bound delegates. The data finds Biden and Sanders tied with 20 percent, and Sen. Warren getting into delegate contention with 17 percent. If the actual Texas votes break similarly to this ratio, it would mean Bloomberg would fail to qualify for at-large delegates, leading to a fight for delegate allocation within each of the 31 state Senate districts. While other states divide by congressional districts, Texas uses state Senate seats.

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Projecting Delegates

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 24, 2020 — It is becoming clearer that the Democratic presidential contest could result in an open, or “brokered”, convention. This would occur if no candidate secures majority support after the electorates in all the voting entities have cast their ballots and the delegates’ first ballot tallies are locked into place under the individual state laws.

Discounting the Nevada Caucus held over the weekend, only 65 of the 3,979 first-ballot delegate votes have been assigned. By the evening of March 3, however, the aggregate assigned delegate total will soar to 1,398 and we will begin to see sustaining patterns developing.

By March 17, 61 percent of the first-ballot votes will be locked. At that time, it is highly likely we will be able to determine if a candidate can attain majority support or whether multiple ballots will be required to choose a nominee. If this latter scenario occurs, it will be the first time since 1952 that a major party convention is forced to call for more than one ballot to choose a nominee.

Looking past Nevada and onto South Carolina on Saturday, Feb. 29, and then to Super Tuesday just three days later, we can begin to make delegate projections based upon available polling data. Of the 19 total voting entities that will record votes from the time the Iowa Caucuses began to the end of voting on Super Tuesday, relevant polling exists in 14 of those states.

Using the available data and delegate quotas that are noted from each place, rudimentary projections can be calculated regarding which candidates might receive delegate votes from the specific states for purposes of comparing aggregate totals against the 50 percent threshold.

Early in the cycle, it appeared that former Vice President Joe Biden would be in the strongest position post Super Tuesday because of what looked to be his early dominance in the South. The voting schedule appeared to favor him since half the March 3 voting states lie in that region. His trouble in Iowa and New Hampshire, plus his poor debate performances, and Sen. Bernie Sanders’ strength along with the recent emergence of Michael Bloomberg, has apparently already relegated Biden to also-ran status.

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New Hampshire Primary Today

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 11, 2020 — At long last, the New Hampshire nomination election has arrived, and voters have already begun casting their ballots in what is often referred to as the “first in the nation primary.” The initial state in a line of 48 primaries (the other nine states and territories have caucuses), just how important is today’s vote in determining who wins the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination?

Considering the split Iowa vote where it appears that five different candidates will be awarded a certain number of first-ballot national convention delegate votes ranging from 14 to one, New Hampshire’s 24 aggregate delegates will not likely alter the current race trajectory; therefore, multiple candidates will still be battling through Nevada and South Carolina before Super Tuesday with no one having a clear early path to majority support.

First-ballot victory at the Democratic National Convention in July can only come when one candidate top 50 percent of delegate support. Therefore, regardless of the importance media analysts attempt to assign this New Hampshire race in terms of a momentum boost, it is the delegate numbers that will still tell the story.

Coming from Iowa, former South Bend mayor, Pete Buttigieg, looks to earn 14 delegates with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) close behind with 12. Now, Sen. Sanders’ team is requesting a partial recount in Iowa that might earn him an extra delegate or two, but it is doubtful the Iowa Democratic Party, with a party leadership still reeling over the vote counting debacle, will grant their request.

Continuing the projected delegate apportionment, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) would earn eight bound delegate votes, former vice president, Joe Biden six, and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, one.

Polling suggests that Sen. Sanders will place first tonight, but several candidates look to break the 15 percent threshold to also qualify for bound delegate votes. Polling finds scenarios where Buttigieg, Warren, Biden, and even Klobuchar will surpass the minimum threshold, though it is unlikely that all will do so. In fact, with Biden’s early support evaporating before our eyes, it is possible that he will fall short of 15 percent tonight meaning that he would be shut out of delegate votes. Though Sen. Klobuchar appears to be closing fast, it is also likely that she finishes under 15 percent.

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Iowa Drags On

By Jim Ellis

South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg

Feb. 5, 2020 — Almost a full day after voting ended, the Iowa Democratic Party released what now accounts for almost three-quarters of the state’s precinct totals, and we may be headed for a split decision.

While South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is being credited as the leader and potential victor, the complicated Iowa system suggests that two candidates can claim a victory of sorts.

Buttigieg leads among the state delegate count, as caucus attenders choose individuals to serve as delegates to the state party convention in order to determine how Iowa’s 41 first-ballot delegates will vote at the Democratic National Convention in mid-July. At this writing, Buttigieg has 26.8 percent of the state delegate contingent, ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 25.2 percent.

In actuality, however, it is Sanders who has more raw votes. At this point, the Vermont senator maintains an approximate 1,300-vote lead over Buttigieg, and 7,000 more than Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Former Vice President Joe Biden performed poorly, attracting only half the total number of votes that Sanders has so far recorded.

Each caucus awards a certain number of delegates regardless of how many people attend the precinct meeting. Like the electoral college in the general election, the bigger entities receive more delegate votes. Therefore, even though Buttigieg received fewer popular votes he did better in the largest areas, thus awarding him a few more state delegates.

In terms of the published projections for the national convention delegate slate it appears that Buttigieg would have 12 votes, Sanders 10, Warren 6, and Biden 3 with ten more to be decided once all of the votes are finally tabulated. It’s possible that while Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) failed to reach the 15 percent threshold she might earn a delegate or two based upon the individual congressional district vote.

Biden, who is currently at just 15.4 percent of the state delegate vote is just barely qualifying for apportionment. If the final outstanding votes cut against him, it’s possible that he could fail to reach the final 15 percent, which would prevent him from earning any at-large national convention delegate votes.

Sanders Leading in California

By Jim Ellis

2020 Presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders takes the lead in California

Jan. 13, 2020 — The new Capitol Weekly research survey (Jan. 1-9; 1,053 likely California Democratic primary voters) finds Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) taking a slight polling lead in the California Democratic primary over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), former Vice President Joe Biden, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg in what is consistently becoming a closely bunched field.

With two months to go before the Golden State primary is conducted but less than a month before early voting begins there on Feb. 3, the possibility of multiple candidates receiving portions of the state’s 415 first ballot delegates is becoming very real.

Sanders leads Warren, Biden, and Buttigieg by a 24-21-20-11 percent spread. Under party rules, a candidate must secure 15 percent of the statewide vote to earn at-large delegates. Therefore, Buttigieg must work to gain strength during the remaining time in order to reap the all-important mandated delegate commitments.

If he were to obtain 15 percent, and the others remained constant with these present percentages, the at-large delegate division would break 43 for Sanders and 38 for Warren, while Biden would earn 36 and Buttigieg 27 votes.

Should only the top three qualify for at-large delegate apportionment, Sanders would earn 53 votes, Warren 46, and Biden 45. Therefore, Buttigieg qualifying would significantly change the state and overall race because the large California delegation will be a major presence at the Democratic National Convention.

Scoring at-large delegate commitments is not the only way to earn votes, however. A larger total of 271 delegates will be awarded through the state’s 53 congressional districts. Each district, based upon its historical support performance for Democratic candidates, is awarded between 4 and 7 delegates, inclusive.

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