Category Archives: House

The Case for Florida’s Under-Polling

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 3, 2024

Polling

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

The latest Florida research surveys may not be correctly depicting the Sunshine State’s political situation; recent history indicates they may be underestimating Republican strength.

We’ve recently seen several polls that project Sen. Rick Scott (R) as being in a close race against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), and now a new St. Pete Polls survey finds that 13th District freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) is trailing her new Democratic general election opponent.

Public Policy Polling (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; Aug. 21-22; 837 registered Florida voters; bilingual option available; live interview and text) publicized their late August findings that posted Sen. Scott to only a 48-45 percent lead over Mucarsel-Powell, this just one month after the Florida primary election.

Earlier in the month, Florida Atlantic University tested the state’s electorate (Aug. 10-11; 1,040 likely Florida voters; Interactive Voice Response system with bilingual option and online) and drew a similar conclusion. Their ballot test response yielded a Scott edge of 47-43 percent.

The St. Pete Polls’ 13th District survey (Aug. 27; 843 registered FL-13 voters; automated phone calls and text) found new Democratic nominee Whitney Fox leading Rep. Luna, 48-44 percent, in the first publicly released poll since May. In that month’s GQR survey for the Fox campaign, Rep. Luna led 51-46 percent.

Recent electoral and polling history tells us, however, that seeing Democrats performing well in Florida races during August is not unusual, but Republican strength then shows itself as the calendar officially moves into autumn. Additionally, the polling has typically inaccurately depicted Republican strength in the most recent campaigns.

For example, in the 2022 election, Gov. Ron DeSantis, where the Real Clear Politics website ranked his campaign status as just “Lean Republican,” was viewed to be in a much tighter contest than what the final results revealed. In that election, Gov. DeSantis won with a 19.4 percent victory margin, 59.4 – 40.0 percent, over former governor and ex-Congressman Charlie Crist (D).

The polling average, however, from the middle of October through the Nov. 8 election, according to the Real Clear Politics’ polling archives, only detected a 12.2 percent average advantage. Therefore, the cumulative polling understated the governor’s strength by approximately seven percentage points.

We saw a similar pattern in the 2022 US Senate race. There, Sen. Marco Rubio (R), at an approximate $30 million deficit opposite his general election opponent, then-Congresswoman Val Demings (D), saw a favorable polling mean average of 8.1 percentage points from the seven polls conducted from Oct. 1, 2022, through the November election. Sen. Rubio’s actual margin of victory was 16.4 points (57.7 – 41.3 percent), meaning the polling average proved 8.3 points below the Republican’s actual voting performance.

A similar pattern, though which much less data, was also present in Luna’s 2022 congressional race. The one published pre-election poll, also from St. Pete Polls and conducted over the Oct. 26-27 period, found Luna leading her ’22 opponent, Democrat Eric Lynn, by only one point, 46-45 percent, yet she carried the district by 8.1 percentage points in the actual vote. Again, we see another Republican whose strength was not correctly projected, in this case, by an undercount of just over seven percentage points.

One reason the Florida polls may be missing the GOP voting strength factor is how fast the state’s population and electorate is changing. At the end of the 2018 election cycle, the year Scott was elected to the Senate by just 10,033 votes from almost 8.2 million ballots cast, the Democrats held a 37.1 to 35.2 percent voter registration edge over Republicans, which translated into a raw number spread of 257,175 individuals.

Today, as an indicator of the drastic change that has occurred from that point in time to the present (Aug. 14th Florida voter registration report), the Republicans now hold an advantage of almost 1 million registrants (exact figure: 996,795).

It remains to be seen if the 2024 ballot test polling follows the same pattern that we saw in 2022, but odds are strong that the current data is again underestimating the Republican candidates’ actual strength.

West Fails to Qualify for Florida Ballot; Close Florida Senate Poll; Luna Trailing in FL-13 Survey;
NJ-9 Nominee Clinched

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 30, 2024

President

Presidential candidate Dr. Cornel West

Cornel West: Fails to Qualify for Florida Ballot — As ballots become finalized around the country, election officials in the state of Florida announced earlier this week that Independent presidential candidate Dr. Cornel West has failed to meet the state’s requirements for ballot access. Therefore, his name will not appear before the Florida electorate. Dr. West has qualified for the ballot in Alaska, Colorado, Michigan, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.

He could draw a percentage point or so of support from Vice President Kamala Harris in the key battleground states of Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, which could prove definitive. Dr. West might also be part of a matrix that could force the Alaska race into the Ranked Choice Voting round by helping deny former President Donald Trump majority support.

Senate

Florida: Another Close Poll — We’ve recently seen several polls that project Sen. Rick Scott (R) as being in a close race against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), Public Policy Polling (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; Aug. 21-22; 837 registered Florida voters; bilingual option available; live interview and text) publicized their late August findings that posted Sen. Scott to only a 48-45 percent lead over Mucarsel-Powell, this just one month after the Florida primary election. Earlier in the month, Florida Atlantic University tested the state’s electorate (Aug. 10-11; 1,040 likely Florida voters; Interactive Voice Response system with bilingual option and online) and drew a similar conclusion. Their ballot test response yielded a Scott edge of 47-43 percent.

Recent electoral and polling history tells us, however, that seeing Democrats performing well in Florida races during August is not unusual, while Republican strength then shows itself as the calendar officially moves into autumn. Additionally, the polling has typically inaccurately depicted Republican strength in the most recent campaigns. Therefore, it is likely Sen. Scott stands in better position than these surveys suggest.

House

FL-13: Rep. Luna Trailing in Post-Primary Poll — As is the case with Sen. Scott as explained above, we see potentially the same polling situation developing in the Tampa Bay area.

A new St. Pete Polls survey finds 13th District freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) trailing her new Democratic general election opponent. The St. Pete Polls’ 13th District survey (Aug. 27; 843 registered FL-13 voters; automated phone calls and text) found new Democratic nominee Whitney Fox leading Rep. Luna, 48-44 percent, in the first publicly released poll since May. In that month’s GQR survey for the Fox campaign, Rep. Luna led 51-46 percent.

A similar pattern, though which much less data, was also present in Luna’s 2022 congressional race. The one published pre-election poll, also from St. Pete Polls and conducted over the Oct. 26-27 period, found Luna leading her ’22 opponent, Democrat Eric Lynn, by only one point, 46-45 percent, yet she carried the district by 8.1 percentage points in the actual vote. Again, we see another Florida Republican whose strength was not correctly projected, in this case, by an under-count of just over seven percentage points.

NJ-9: Nominee Clinched — It appears the nomination process to choose a successor to the late New Jersey Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) has ended even before the official Democratic Party meeting to select a candidate has even begun.

After state Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) received a big bounce by obtaining endorsements from the local county party chairmen and other key local leaders, all of the other major candidates removed themselves from further consideration. Therefore, it appears that Sen. Pou will be the new nominee and will become a prohibitive favorite to defeat 2022 Republican nominee Billy Prempeh to keep New Jersey’s 9th District in Democratic hands.

House Open Seats: The Change Factor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 29, 2024

House

Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Once again, we see a large number of open seats in the US House of Representatives, something that has been common throughout the previous decade and the beginning of this one, yet in 2024 very few open seats are poised to flip to the opposite party.

In a political body where incumbent retention is extraordinarily high – in 2022 we saw 98.1 percent of House incumbents who sought re-election win – and will almost assuredly be again so in 2024, most often seats that convert to the opposite party do so in open status.

That’s not the case in 2024. Currently, we find 55 open seats, 29 coming from the Democratic column, 25 from the Republicans, with one district, AL-2, which was created as a new seat in a secondary redistricting redraw. Yet from this number, and not counting the eight seats that were open during the cycle and filled in special elections, one could argue that only 10 will either flip or see a serious competition level.

At the end of the cycle, it would not be surprising to see only those affected by a second round of redistricting flip, meaning the three seats in North Carolina changing from Democrat to Republican, and one each moving from Republican to Democrat in Alabama and Louisiana.

Therefore, of the current 55 open House seats, it appears very likely that 50 will remain with the incumbent party or flip because of redistricting. Therefore, in only five instances do we see an open seat where the controlling party might change via election.

Perhaps the most hotly contested open seat lies in southern California where Rep. Katie Porter’s (D-Irvine) Orange County-anchored 47th District should be rated as a toss-up. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R), who finished first in the jungle primary, and state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine), who finished second, are the general election finalists.

If the jungle primary partisan breakdown is any indication as to how this race might end, and it may well be, then this is one that could take weeks to decide under the elongated ballot counting and signature verification process that California employs.

In the qualification election, Baugh finished first with 32.1 percent while Sen. Min captured 25.9 percent. The aggregate Republican percentage total from three candidates was 49.6 percent. The total Democratic percentage dispersed through four candidates was 47.1 percent, with the remaining 3.3 percent divided among a trio of No Party Preference candidates. CA-47 leans Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+6, and the Daily Kos Elections statisticians, now with The Down Ballot data site, ranks the 47th as the 32nd most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.

The district that Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) vacated, which covers Colorado’s western slope mountain region, should be a Republican CD. The FiveThirtyEight data team sees a GOP advantage of R+15, and The Down Ballot organization ranks the district as the 51st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Still, Democrat Adam Frisch has raised more money than all House candidates in the nation with the exception of the former House Speaker and Democratic Leader.

Though he already spent three-quarters of his money, most of which was raised when he was running against Rep. Boebert, Frisch still had almost $4 million more at his disposal in late June than new Republican nominee Jeffrey Hurd. Resources and residual name ID and losing the closest election of 2022 gives Frisch a fighting chance in what should be a safe Republican seat.

On paper, central/east Michigan’s 7th and 8th Districts appear as pure toss-ups. In actuality, with President Joe Biden taking the reconfigured 7th with a 49.4 – 48.9 percent tight victory and a slightly larger 50.3 – 48.2 percent finish in the adjacent 8th CD, as well as continuing to re-elect Democratic House members, 2024 US Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin and retiring Rep. Dan Kildee, the party has a more discernible edge than the dead even statistical calculations suggest.

This gives former state Rep. Curtis Hertel (D) and state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) the probable advantage they will need to beat their respective Republican opponents, ex-state senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tom Barrett and three-time congressional nominee Paul Junge, respectively.

Virginia’s 7th CD, open because Democratic incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger is preparing a 2025 run for governor, is another seat that looks more vulnerable on paper than it does in terms of actual vote counting. The FiveThirtyEight data organization ranks the 7th, that stretches from the outer Richmond suburbs to the Washington, DC exburbs, as D+2, and it ranks as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

President Biden, however, recorded a more comfortable 52.6 – 45.8 percent majority and Rep. Spanberger scored a 51-49 percent re-election victory even though the congresswoman faced a constituency where three-quarters of the district’s residents were not in her previous district.

In the open seat election, retired Army officer Eugene Vindman (D) has a huge resource advantage over Iraq War veteran Derrick Anderson (R). Vindman had a 7:1 fundraising advantage over Anderson according to the most recent campaign disclosure filings.

At the end of the campaign cycle, it would not be surprising to see no open seat flip to the opposite party without the aid of a new redistricting map. If so, we will see yet another unique facet of the wild 2024 election cycle.

Is RFK Jr. In or Out? Hogan Moves Into a Tie in Maryland; Sheehy Rebounds in Montana; The Race to Replace the Late Rep. Bill Pascrell

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 28, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Can’t Withdraw in Key States — Though presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) wants to withdraw from the ballot in all key battleground states, certain election officials say they won’t or can’t (under state election law) remove his name. It appears that Kennedy’s name will remain on the ballot in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. It appears he won’t be on in Arizona, Georgia, or Pennsylvania.

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio released a memo suggesting the preponderance of Kennedy voters would move to former President Donald Trump if their first choice, Kennedy, were not on the ballot. In Michigan, according to Fabrizio, the Kennedy vote breaks 43-41 percent in Trump’s favor. The Nevada Kennedy vote split is a whopping 66-16 percent for Trump; North Carolina, 58-22 percent; and Wisconsin, 55-25 percent. Therefore, the Trump campaign and Kennedy will have to communicate to Kennedy voters in these affected states that RFK Jr. is no longer in the race irrespective of his ballot presence.

Senate

Maryland: Hogan Moves Into Tie: — The latest AARP Maryland poll (conducted jointly by Fabrizio Ward & Associates (R) and Impact Research (D); Aug. 14-20; 600 likely Maryland general election voters; oversample of 482 likely voters over age 50; oversample of 176 black likely voters; 60 percent live interview; 40 percent text) projects that former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) are deadlocked with each attracting 46 percent support.

These results are much different than the last publicly released ballot test survey, that from Public Policy Polling, conducted over the June 19-20 period. According to those results, Alsobrooks held a 48-40 percent lead. Before, Emerson College and Concord Public Opinion Partners conducted pre-May 14 Maryland primary polls. The two found Alsobrooks leading by two and five points, respectively. The AARP data puts the Maryland Senate race into an entirely different competitive prism. Should this tight electoral pattern continue, the Maryland Senate race will move into the top tier of competitive statewide contests.

Montana: Sheehy Rebounds — A new Public Opinion Strategies survey (Aug. 18-20; 500 likely Montana voters; live interview) finds retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) climbing back into the lead over veteran Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D). According to the POS results, Sheehy leads the three-term incumbent, 51-44 percent.

Earlier in the month, RMG Research, polling for the Napolitan Institute (Aug. 6-14; 540 registered Montana voters) saw Tester leading 49-44 percent. Even the latter poll, however, flips to Sheehy if people believe that the Montana race will flip the Senate to Republican control. Under this argument, the ballot test reverses in Sheehy’s favor by a 55-37 percent mark.

Aside from converting the West Virginia Democratic Senate seat, which appears to be a lock for the GOP, Montana is clearly the next best contest for Republicans to topple a Democratic senator and claim a bare minimum Senate majority.

House

NJ-9: Endorsements & a Drop Out — State Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) received a big bounce in her effort to replace the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) on the New Jersey general election ballot. New Jersey politics, of which the local county party chairmen have powerful positions, is still machine driven. For the coming special Democratic Party meeting to replace Pascrell, all three of the 9th District’s county chairmen, those from Passaic, Bergen, and Hudson counties, have endorsed the local state senator.

In another pre-meeting event, Paterson Mayor André Sayegh, thought to be the late congressman’s choice to succeed him, announced that he is removing himself from consideration. The remaining candidates are: General Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson), Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson), and state Sen. Pou.

RFK Jr.’s Ballot Status;
Dahlstrom Withdraws in Alaska;
NJ-9 Replacement Nominee Selection;
New Hampshire Pre-Primary Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 27, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

RFK Jr: Current Ballot Status — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) on Friday announced that he will suspend his campaign in battleground states but remain in places where the race is not as competitive. Which, however, are those states? It’s clear he will not compete in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, domains that all agree are battlegrounds, but what about some others that may be on the competitiveness cusp? Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in Alaska, Maine, Nebraska, and New Mexico, all of which under certain circumstances could become close.

Alaska and Maine employ the Ranked Choice Voting system, which could change the outcome of the initial ballot count if no one secures majority support. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is a battleground area and, depending upon the outcome of other key battleground domains, could cause a tie in the Electoral College. New Mexico has shown some close polling before President Joe Biden exited the race, but could it tighten again in the remaining weeks? Therefore, while Kennedy is out of the key battlegrounds and has endorsed former President Donald Trump, where he will or will not remain on the ballot is still open to some question.

House

AK-AL: Dahlstrom Withdraws — Republicans scored a major break in the Alaska at-large congressional race. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who finished third in the Aug. 20 jungle primary, and thus advances into the general election under the Alaska top four voting system, announced on Friday that she is ending her congressional campaign. This will allow second-place finisher Nick Begich III (R) to challenge Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) in a one-on-one general election battle.

The Dahlstrom move increases the Republican chances of victory, though Rep. Peltola still should be considered at least a slight early general election favorite. Though all of the primary ballots are still not recorded, it does appear that she exceeded the 50 pecent mark. This would be significant heading into the general election, though under a larger turnout and a united Republican Party, Begich’s chances significantly increase.

There will be a fourth-place finisher advancing, too, however the individual’s vote count – fourth position is still undecided – is less than 1,000, so chances are strong that said individual will either drop out or only be a minimal factor in November.

NJ-9: Replacement Nominee to be Selected — Individuals contemplating whether to run now to replace New Jersey’s late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) don’t have much time to decide. Under state law, the ballots become locked on Aug. 29, so the 9th District Democratic party has only three days this week to choose a replacement nominee.

Indicating they want to be considered for the nomination are state Assembly members Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) and Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson). Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh is also a potential candidate. The committee members’ choice will immediately become a heavy favorite to succeed Pascrell. The Republican nominee is sales consultant Billy Prempeh, who held Rep. Pascrell to a 55-45 percent victory margin in 2022.

States

New Hampshire: Pre-Primary Statewide Poll — The University of New Hampshire conducted their regular Granite State poll, this in anticipation of the state’s late Sept. 10 primary election.

As other data has shown, ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte maintains a strong Republican primary advantage over former state Senate president and 2022 Senate candidate Chuck Morse. In this poll, which is her best showing, Ayotte leads Morse by a whopping 65-21 percent. On the Democratic side, we see a closer race, but one with a consistent leader, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. In this survey, Craig notches a 39-30 percent edge over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.

In the US House races, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has only minor opposition in the Democratic primary. In the crowded Republican primary, former executive councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott holds a 19-10 percent advantage over Manchester City Alderman Joseph Kelly Lavasseur with no other candidate reaching double digits.

In open District 2, from which Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) is retiring, former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander leads the Democratic primary over former executive council member and 2016 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern. The split is 34-28 percent, which is closer than other polls have indicated. This could suggest that Van Ostern has developed momentum heading into the primary election. On the Republican side, business consultant Vikram Mansharamani has a small 21-17 percent edge over businesswoman Lily Tang Williams and 10 others.

Helmy to Serve Balance of NJ Sen. Menendez’s Term; Clear Favorite in NH-2; CA-45, PA-10 Races Tight

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 23, 2024

Senate

George Helmy (D) has been appointed by New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy to serve the balance of Sen. Bob Menendez’s current term.

New Jersey: Menendez Drops Campaign — Sen. Bob Menendez (D), who is resigning from the Senate today due to his conviction on federal bribery charges, is also ending his Independent candidacy for re-election. Though he had little chance of winning the November election from the Independent ballot line, he was able to pay legal fees because he was an official candidate. Beginning today, he will no longer be a senator, nor a Senate candidate.

Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is favored to win the general election and succeed Menendez in the Senate. During the interim, Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is appointing his former chief of staff, George Helmy (D), to serve the balance of the current term.

House

AZ-3: Finally, A Result — In another of the 2024 close primary races in which the counting has dragged on for weeks, former Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari Tuesday was declared the official winner of the open 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary by a 39-vote margin over former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. Ansari had led since the first count on July 30, but what originally appeared to be a substantial lead dwindled in every subsequent count until the leakage finally stopped with 39 votes to spare. The total turnout was a low 38,135 votes.

AZ-3 is a safe Democratic seat – the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it a D+44 – so winning the Democratic primary has virtually clinched the general election for Ansari. She will replace Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) who is running for the Senate.

NH-2: Open Democratic District Polling Shows Clear Favorite — St. Anselm’s College’s latest statewide poll (Aug. 13-14; 1,327 registered New Hampshire voters; 320 NH-2 Democratic primary voters; online) finds ex-Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander leading Executive Councilor and 2016 gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern by a full 10-point margin, 41-31 percent, in the open battle to succeed retiring Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton). Though the general election could be close, the new Democratic nominee will at least have the initial advantage. The late New Hampshire primary is scheduled for Sept. 10.

CA-45: Rep. Steel in Deadlocked Poll — One of the keys to determining the next US House majority is how well the Republicans do in retaining the four Democratic seats their members hold in the Golden State. One of those is the Orange County district of two-term Rep. Michelle Steel. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 45th as D+5, but Rep. Steel was able to secure a 52-48 percent post-redistricting re-election victory in 2022.

While initially favored to claim a third term, a just-released late July Normington Petts survey (for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee; July 29-31; 500 likely CA-45 voters; live interview & text) finds Rep. Steel and Democrat Derek Tran tied at 47 percent apiece. In a heavily Asian district (41.4 percent of the Voting Age Population), Tran has a strong advantage within the large Vietnamese population (62-30 percent) over the Korean-born Republican incumbent. We can expect another close finish in a highly competitive Orange County congressional district.

PA-10: Moving Into Toss-Up Realm — Another battleground US House contest is unfolding in the Harrisburg-York area of Pennsylvania. Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+9, a new poll suggests the race between six-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg) and former television news anchor Janelle Stelson is already a toss-up.

An Upswing Research survey (polling for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee; July 30-Aug. 2; 600 likely PA-10 voters; live interview & text) finds the challenger leading Rep. Perry with a slight 48-47 percent margin. Typically, this district has polled better for Democrats than it has actually voted, but there is little doubt that the race in this central Pennsylvania CD will be one to watch.

RFK Jr. Announcement Friday; Rep. Pascrell Passes Away; Close Poll in MD-6; DA Gascon Trounced in Poll

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 22, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Announcement Scheduled for Friday — It appears that Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., after pushing back against Democratic Party efforts to disqualify him from several state ballots, has scheduled a national announcement for Friday. Reports from both NBC and ABC News suggests that Kennedy will formally exit the race and endorse Donald Trump.

It remains to be seen if this story is true and, if so, just what effect it will have upon the other presidential candidates. At first glance, it appears the move will marginally help Trump, but over the remaining weeks of the campaign, such may prove not to be the case.

House

NJ-9: Rep. Bill Pascrell (D) Passes Away — A few days after being readmitted to the hospital, 87-year-old veteran Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ) sadly passed away. His family issued the announcement yesterday. Rep. Pascrell is the fourth House member to pass away in this Congress, the second since the July 4th holiday, and the second from New Jersey. His death follows those of Reps. Donald McEachin (D-VA), Donald Payne Jr. (D-NJ), and Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX).

There are now four vacancies in the House, three from the members who have passed away, Reps. Jackson Lee, Payne, and Pascrell, and one from a resigned Rep. Mike Gallager (R-WI). The Pascrell vacancy reduces the House count to 220R – 211D – 4V (3D; 1R).

The open seat count headed into the election now grows to 55 with the Pascrell passing. Of these, 29 are in Democratic held districts with 25 from the Republican side, and one newly created seat within the new Alabama redistricting configuration. Another seven seats have been filled in special elections, and all but the CO-4 campaign feature new incumbents running for their first full term.

MD-6: Close Poll Released — In a surprising survey result, Public Opinion Strategies released a research study of Maryland’s 6th Congressional District for the Neil Parrott for Congress campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee (Aug. 6-11; 400 likely MD-6 general election voters; live interview). The results find Democratic nominee April Delaney leading Parrott, a two-time congressional nominee and ex-state Delegate, by only a 42-40 percent margin.

The district rates as R+1 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, while Dave’s Redistricting App publishes a 48.9D – 48.0R partisan lean. Yet, Parrott has not performed well in his two general election campaigns against Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac). Delaney still must be considered the favorite here and will enjoy a substantial resource advantage, but this poll suggests the Republicans have life.

Cities

Los Angeles DA: Gascon Trounced in Latest Poll — George Gascon (D), the Los Angeles County District Attorney who describes himself as the “godfather of progressive prosecutors,” and became the symbol of the DA’s who do not prosecuting minor crimes, may find himself out of office after the Nov. 5 election concludes.

A recently released University of California at Berkeley survey (July 31-Aug. 11; 1,136 Los Angeles County likely voters) projects Gascon trailing Independent candidate Nathan Hochman, 20-45 percent, respectively. In terms of approval rating, a total of only 21 percent say they have a favorable or somewhat favorable opinion of Gascon, as opposed to 45 percent who harbor an unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable opinion of him.

Primary Results:
Alaska, Florida, Wyoming

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Primary Results

Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola (D)

Alaska: Peltola, Begich Finish 1, 2 — As expected, at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) finished first in the top-four Alaska jungle primary, but the unanswered question was whether businessman Nick Begich III or Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, the choice of the Republican establishment and former President Donald Trump, would become her prime competitor. While Rep. Peltola is knocking on the door of the majority support threshold as ballots continue to be counted, it was Begich who secured second place, while Dahlstrom finished almost seven points behind him and 30 points behind the congresswoman.

The next few days of jockeying will be interesting. The Republicans will have their best chance of unseating Rep. Peltola if they unite behind one candidate, and it appears their only choice will be Begich. If they remain divided among two major GOP contenders, then the outcome will be the same as we’ve seen before, which is that Rep. Peltola will continue representing the most Republican congressional district in the country to elect a Democrat to the House.

Florida: Scott Romps; No Major Upsets — The Florida primary unfolded as expected. Sen. Rick Scott (R) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) were easy winners in their respective primaries. Sen. Scott posted over 84 percent in the Republican primary, while Mucarsel-Powell captured just over two-thirds of the Democratic vote.

Sen. Scott and Mucarsel-Powell will now advance to the general election where the incumbent is favored in a state where the Republican registered voter factor exceeds its Democratic counterparts by more than 1 million individuals.

In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) was again an easy winner, exceeding 72 percent of the vote over Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock who moved into the district to challenge the congressman. Gaetz will now advance into the general election where he becomes a prohibitive favorite in a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+38.

In the Atlantic coastal 8th District, as expected, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos topped 72 percent of the vote to claim the Republican nomination. He will replace retiring Congressman Bill Posey (R-Rockledge) who announced that he would not seek re-election just before the candidate filing deadline expired. Haridopolos now becomes a sure winner in the general election.

In a St. Petersburg-anchored congressional district that can become competitive, marketing consultant Whitney Fox, as expected, easily won the Democratic primary and advances into the general election to oppose freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg). The congresswoman is favored, but the district electorate is relatively close. The Republican general election vote is likely to land in the low to mid-50s.

Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa), who Trump targeted for defeat before he decided to endorse her when no major GOP competition emerged, also topped 72 percent in last night’s GOP primary. Hillsborough County Commissioner Patricia Kemp, who was unopposed in the Democratic primary, will now become Rep. Lee’s November opponent. Since Kemp has under-performed on the fundraising circuit, Rep. Lee is viewed as a clear November favorite in central Florida’s most competitive seat.

Veteran Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) faced a credible Republican primary opponent, but the congressman easily prevailed with 61 percent voter preference. The primary should prove to be Rep. Buchanan’s most formidable challenge in a 16th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+13.

In South Florida, we saw a minor upset as Miami-Dade County School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller defeated former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey with a 54 percent vote total. She now will face two-term Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) in what appears to be a dead-even district on paper demographically, but with an electorate that tends to vote more conservatively.

Wyoming: Barrasso, Hageman Renominated — As predicted, Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso (R) and at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) were easily renominated with landslide Republican primary victories last night. Sen. Barrasso’s 68 percent victory at this writing and Rep. Hageman scoring 81 percent of the primary vote will send both office holders to the general election in what promises to be Donald Trump’s strongest state in the country.

Arizona Senate Race Draws Closer; Tester Rebounds in Montana; A Dead Heat in the Desert; Junge Ahead in MI-8; New Hampshire’s Late Primary

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Senate

Former news anchor and Arizona GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona: Closer Polling Results — The Arizona open Senate research data has been both consistent and inconsistent. The consistency lies in all pollsters finding Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leading former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), but the margin spread has been inconsistent. The latest release, from WPA Intelligence (for the Club for Growth; Aug. 11-13; 600 likely Arizona voters) sees the Gallego edge only at 48-46 percent.

Another four polls released in August, from four different pollsters, see the Gallego lead at 11, 9, 8, and 6 percentage points. A different study, from Peak Insights, surveying for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, projects the two candidates as tied. While the trends clearly favor Rep. Gallego, this is still a race that deserves political attention.

Montana: Tester Rebounds — After falling behind in polling since the end of June, the latest RMG Research poll, conducted for the Napolitan News Service, finds Sen. Jon Tester (D) pulling back into the lead. According to the RMG results, (Aug. 6-14; 540 registered Montana voters), Sen. Tester posts a 49-44 percent advantage over Republican nominee Tim Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL and CEO for a Montana based aerospace company.

The poll has a basic flaw in that the sampling period is long (8 days), which leads to a higher error factor. It did provide several interesting data bits, however. As other polls have shown, former President Donald Trump enjoys a wide lead over Vice President Kamala Harris – 53-35 percent, according to the RMG Research results. The results also see 16 percent of Trump voters peeling off to support Sen. Tester. Conversely, 17 percent of Tester’s voters say they would prefer Republicans gaining control of the Senate. Asked how they would vote if they knew the Montana race would determine the next Senate majority, 55 percent said they would vote for the Republican candidate as compared to 37 percent who vowed to support the Democratic nominee.

House

AZ-1: A Desert Dead Heat — On the heels of former state representative and physician Amish Shah’s (D) surprising win in the crowded July 30 Democratic primary, Impact Research, polling for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (Aug. 1-4; 500 likely AZ-1 general election voters; 100 over-sample of Hispanics; live interview and text) conducted a district-wide survey. The findings suggest the race is a tie, with both Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and Dr. Shah tied with 48 percent of the vote.

The poll is not particularly eye-opening since less than a percentage point decided Rep. Schweikert’s 2022 re-election outcome.

MI-8: Junge Ticks Ahead in Late Pre-Primary Survey — Soon after both state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and two-time former congressional nominee Paul Junge (R) scored landslide primary wins on Aug. 6, the Rivet campaign released the results of their Global Strategy Group survey. The poll (July 29-Aug. 1; 500 likely MI-8 general election voters; live interview and text), though taken just before the general election officially began here on Aug. 7, finds Junge posting a one-point lead over Sen. Rivet, 45-44 percent. Though some recent polls have given Junge a slight edge, the campaign strategies and voter history favor a Democratic victory in November.

Governor

New Hampshire: Craig & Ayotte Lead Primary Race — As we approach the late Sept. 10 primary election, St. Anselm’s College released the results of their latest statewide survey. In each gubernatorial primary, the data results suggest that former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte lead the respective Democratic and Republican open races.

The St. Anselm’s poll (Aug. 13-14; 1,327 registered New Hampshire voters; 670 likely Democratic primary voters; 657 likely Republican primary voters; online) find former Mayor Craig leading Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, 38-27 percent. For the Republicans, Ayotte’s margin is much larger over former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse. The ballot test here yields Ayotte a 59-25 percent advantage. St. Anselm’s did not release general election results.

New Chairman for Trump Campaign; Surprising Arizona Senate Poll; Menedez’s Replacement; OH-13 Race Within Margin of Error; The Late Jackson Lee’s Daughter May Step In

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 19, 2024

President

Corey Lewandowski

Donald Trump: Lewandowski Returns — Amid rumors of a campaign staff shake up swirling around the Trump campaign, it now is confirmed that 2016 campaign manager Corey Lewandowski has returned to former President Donald Trump’s fold. On Friday, Lewandowski was appointed to be chairman of the campaign.

It is clear the Trump effort has been jolted off course with the emergence of Vice President Kamala Harris as the new party nominee, and it is becoming clear that the Republican campaign must return to a more cohesive issue based message in order to rally the GOP base and attract the narrow band of swing voters. It will be interesting to see if reinstalling Lewandowski will provide the needed answer.

Senate

Arizona: Surprising New Poll — Peak Insights, polling for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), released the results of their new survey of the Grand Canyon State electorate (July 31-Aug. 5; 800 likely Arizona general election voters) that surprisingly finds GOP former gubernatorial nominee and ex-news anchor Kari Lake now in a dead heat, at 46-46 percent, with US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix).

The last three polls, from The Cook Political Report, Redfield & Wilton Research, and the High Ground group all showed Rep. Gallego posting substantial leads of 11, 6, and 9 percentage points, respectively. It remains to be seen if the NRSC poll is an anomaly or the beginning of a new trend.

New Jersey: Replacement Senator — Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is scheduled to resign his seat on Tuesday, and Gov. Phil Murphy (D) announced that he will appoint his former gubernatorial chief of staff, George Helmy (D), to serve the balance of the current term. Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is the heavy favorite to win the general election and begin his six-year term in January. Sen. Menendez was convicted of multiple bribery counts and awaits sentencing. He vows to appeal the conviction.

House

OH-13: Within the Margin of Error — In a race that has drawn little in the way of national political attention, a recently released late July poll finds freshman Ohio US Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) already locked in a tight race with GOP former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin (R). Coughlin spent 14 years in the state House and Senate and is returning to elective politics this year after a 14-year respite.

The Cygnal research organization poll for the National Republican Congressional Committee (July 28-30; 400 likely OH-13 voters; live interview & text) finds Rep. Sykes leading Coughlin, 44-40 percent, with the congressional generic question breaking as a dead even tie, 46-46 percent.

The OH-13 contest is an under-the-radar campaign that will be attracting more attention as we move closer to the election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as R+2, but Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 50.7D – 47.0R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as the 13th-most vulnerable district in the House Democratic Conference.

TX-18: Turner Won’t Run in Special — Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, who the Harris County Democratic Party members installed as the general election replacement for the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), said yesterday that he will not enter the special election to fill the final two months of the current term. Erica Lee Carter (D), Jackson Lee’s daughter, has expressed interest in running for the interim position and it appears she will not have serious opposition.

This means Lee Carter will serve the final two months of her mother’s term when she wins the concurrent Nov. 5 special election. The late congresswoman’s daughter was not a candidate to replace her mother in the regular election. Turner is a sure bet to win the regular election and take the seat in the new Congress beginning Jan. 3, 2025.