Tag Archives: PA-10

The Kennedy Factor in Alaska; Maryland Gov. Moore Endorses Senate Candidate; Malinowski’s Response; Candidate Search in PA-10

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023

President

Alaska: First Poll with Kennedy — The Alaska Survey Research firm tested the 2024 general election with, for the first time, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the questionnaire as an Independent candidate. Some have been saying that Kennedy on the ballot could force former President Donald Trump below 50 percent, which would jump-start a Ranked Choice Voting round. This could open the door to President Joe Biden winning Alaska even though he would be nowhere close to victory in the initial vote.

According to the ASR data (Oct. 13-18; 1,375 likely Alaska general election voters; online) Trump is leading the field but with just 37 percent support. President Biden follows with 29 percent, while Kennedy draws 17 percent. In an initial test without Kennedy, Trump would lead President Biden 45-37 percent. Therefore, both candidates would yield 8 percent support to Kennedy. The key here for Trump is making sure he does not fall below the 50 percent threshold, and this poll suggests he would be in danger of doing so if Kennedy continues to remain relatively strong.

Senate

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D)

Maryland: Gov. Moore Endorses Senate Candidate — Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) involved himself in what promises to be a hotly contested open Democratic primary to replace retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D). Maryland’s voting history suggests that Sen. Cardin’s successor will be found in the Democratic primary, as Republicans will have little chance to win a Maryland statewide race in a presidential election year.

Gov. Moore announced that he is supporting Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for the party nomination. Her chief opponent is US representative and Total Beverage chain founder, Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac). The Moore endorsement is a signal to the African American community, the base of the state’s Democratic Party, that they should unite behind Alsobrooks.

Maryland’s black population accounts for just under 32 percent of the state’s residents. In a Democratic primary, however, their size is significantly larger.

Rep. Trone has already put just under $10 million of his own money into his campaign account and is currently advertising in targeted markets. According to Trone’s latest campaign finance report, 98 percent of his money comes from him.

House

NJ-7: Ex-Rep. Malinowski Responds — Former two-term US Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) responded to a statewide op-ed piece asking him to challenge the man who unseated him in 2022, freshman US Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield).

While Malinowski has not publicly ruled out running again, his response to the piece suggests that he will not become a candidate. His quote: “I am very happy in my life right now and looking forward to the next challenge, not backward.” Currently in the Democratic primary are former State Department official Jason Blazakis and progressive left activist Sue Altman.

PA-10: New Democratic Leader — According to a new Public Policy Polling Democratic primary survey of Pennsylvania’s competitive 10th District (Oct. 16-17; 547 PA-10 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), the respondents are looking for a new nominee to challenge US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg).

The poll suggests that retired news anchor Janelle Stelson holds an early 33-20 percent edge over 2022 Democratic nominee and Harrisburg City Councilwoman Shamaine Daniels. In November, Daniels held Rep. Perry to a 54-46 percent victory. Her 27 years on the air in south-central Pennsylvania provides her with a substantial district-wide name identification advantage.

Expect this race to again be competitive, but Rep. Perry begins as the favorite for re-election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-10 as R+9. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 37th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Republicans Coalesce in IL-17; Alabama’s New Congressional Map; Baird Rumors in Indiana False; Crowded Field in PA-10; Kentucky Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 9, 2023

House

Illinois Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) / Photo provided by Eric Sorensen for Illinois campaign

IL-17: Republicans Coalesce — Republicans plan to target Illinois’ 17th District as a conversion opportunity in the next election. It has been the site of two close electoral contests, and Republicans tend to do better in western Illinois during presidential election years. Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) is the freshman incumbent who will be seeking a second term.

Republicans are coalescing around retired circuit judge Joe McGraw, who will soon officially announce his candidacy. Paving the way for the McGraw announcement, businessman Ray Estrada (R) who has been running for the seat himself, said that he will no longer pursue his candidacy. This likely paves the way for an easy McGraw Republican primary run.

The 17th, which stretches to form a craggy letter “C” from Rockford to the Quad Cities to Galesburg, Peoria, and finally Bloomington, rates a D+4 classification from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Daily Kos Elections site rates IL-17 as the 26th most vulnerable seat in the 213-member Democratic Conference.

Alabama: Court Releases New Map — The court-appointed special master returned the new congressional map to the three-judge panel late last week, as directed. Not surprisingly, the new map will feature a Republican district that stretches from Mississippi to Georgia along the Florida border that pairs Reps. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise). As a result, a new 2nd District has been created, designed to elect the choice of the dominant minority community, in this case African Americans. Democrats will gain one seat in the Alabama delegation as a result of this new plan.

IN-4: Rep. Baird to Seek Re-Election — A couple weeks ago, reports were forthcoming from Indiana that 4th District US Rep. Jim Baird (R-Greencastle) was planning to retire and announce that just before the candidate filing deadline expired in order to give his son, state Rep. Beau Baird (R-Greencastle), the inside track toward winning the Republican nomination. That rumor is false. Congressman Baird announced late last week that he will run for a fourth term next year and is heavily favored for re-election.

PA-10: More Join Already Crowded Field –– As expected when she announced her retirement from the newsroom, television anchorwoman Janelle Stelson (D) on Thursday formally declared her intention to run for Congress. She joins what is becoming a crowded Democratic field, however, as each of the candidates are vying for the right to challenge six-term US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg). Also in the Democratic primary are 2022 congressional nominee and Harrisburg City Councilwoman Shemaine Daniels, Carlisle School Board member Rick Coplen, and international business consultant John Broadhurst.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-10 as R+9. The Daily Kos Elections site rates this central Pennsylvania seat as the 37th most vulnerable seat in the 222-member Republican Conference.

Governor

Kentucky: Cameron Gaining Against Gov. Beshear — WPA Intelligence conducted their second September poll of the Kentucky governor’s race for The Club for Growth organization. The survey (Sept. 25-28; 500 likely 2023 Kentucky general election voters; live interview) found Gov. Andy Beshear (D) leading Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) by a 48-42 percent count. In their early September survey, WPA found a 48-40 percent Beshear advantage.

The slight movement suggests that Cameron has a chance to gain further support as the campaign enters its critical final month. The election is scheduled for Nov. 7.

More Candidates to Challenge Menendez; SCOTUS Rejects Alabama Redistricting; Re-Election Bid in IL-5; Perry Facing Numerous Opponents in PA-10; San Fran Mayoral Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023

Senate

Embattled New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D) and wife, Nadine Arslanian Menendez

New Jersey: Other Potential Dem Candidates Surface — While Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) has already announced and reiterated that he will challenge Sen. Bob Menendez (D) in next year’s Democratic primary, other Democrats could make this contest quite crowded. Those mentioned as possible candidates include New Jersey’s First Lady Tammy Murphy, and US Reps. David Norcross (D-Camden City), Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) and former House Energy & Commerce Committee chairman Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch). Only Rep. Kim, however, has made a firm declaration.

House

Alabama: SCOTUS Rejects Alabama Redistricting Appeal — The US Supreme Court on Tuesday affirmed the three-judge panel ruling that will allow a special master to draw the new Alabama congressional map after the legislature and governor’s map was rejected. The result of the redraw will likely pair Reps. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) and create a new black majority district anchored in Montgomery County. This will almost assuredly mean a one-seat gain for the Democrats in the 6R-1D Alabama congressional delegation.

IL-5: Rep. Quigley to Seek Re-Election — Rumors had been prevalent that eight-term Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Chicago) was contemplating retirement. The congressman made clear Tuesday, however, that he intends to seek re-election next year. “Reports of my demise are greatly exaggerated. There’s a lot still to do … I’m not in the first quarter of my political career, but I’m not in the last quarter either,” Quigley said, affirming that he will run again.

PA-10: Race Against Rep. Scott Perry Becoming Voluminous — The third Democratic challenger hoping to face six-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg) announced his candidacy yesterday. International business consultant John Broadhurst has joined the Democratic primary field, which includes 2022 nominee Shamaine Daniels, a member of the Harrisburg City Council, and Carlisle School Board member Rick Coplen. Former Lancaster television news anchor Janele Stelson is also expected to soon become a Democratic congressional candidate.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-10 as R+9. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 37th most vulnerable district in the Republican Conference. Therefore, the data again favors Rep. Perry regardless of who wins the upcoming Democratic primary.

Cities

San Francisco: Levi Strauss Heir to Challenge Mayor Breed — Dan Lurie, an heir to the Levi Strauss fortune and cousin to freshman US Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY), announced that he will join San Francisco County Supervisor Ahsha Safai (D) as 2024 election opponents to San Francisco Mayor London Breed (D). The mayoral campaign, labeled as nonpartisan, will be run concurrently with the regular 2024 election calendar. Both Lurie and Safai are attacking Mayor Breed on her handling of the crime issue, which has led to many businesses and residents leaving the city. Expect this to be a competitive contest.

Pennsylvania’s McCormick to Announce; Ex-San Jose Mayor Won’t Run; MI-13 Challengers; Anchorwoman to Run in PA-10; Progressive Mayor Elected

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2023

Senate

Former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R)

Pennsylvania: McCormick to Announce on Thursday — David McCormick, the former hedge fund CEO and Republican US Senate candidate who lost his 2022 party nomination bid to Dr. Mehmet Oz by just 950 votes, is reportedly poised to make a run at three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D) next year. He has scheduled an announcement event for Thursday, which should officially launch his 2024 campaign. Though it is unlikely that McCormick will face a strong challenge for the party nomination, Sen. Casey will begin the active campaign season as the clear favorite to win the race.

House

CA-16, 18: Ex-Mayor Won’t Run — Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) who said earlier in the year he was deciding whether to challenge Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) or Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose) in California’s March Democratic primary will not run against anybody. Instead, he has accepted a position with a legislative advocacy firm. Both Reps. Eshoo and Lofgren appear as prohibitive favorites to win another term in the House irrespective of who might be their Democratic primary and general election opponents.

MI-13: Two Will Return to Challenge Rep. Thanedar — Freshman Michigan Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit), who won a crowded open Democratic primary in 2022 with just 28 percent of the vote, will face at least two of the same opponents in his renomination fight next year. Former state Sen. Adam Hollier and John Conyers III, whose father held this same seat for 52 years, appear to be sure bets to return for another electoral battle. Once again, however, a crowded field will help Thanedar, because his opposition vote will be split. The Democratic primary will determine who represents the district. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MI-13 as D+46.

PA-10: Anchorwoman May Soon Declare — Veteran news anchorwoman Janelle Stelson (D) has resigned her position with WGAL-TV in Lancaster, PA, ostensibly to soon declare her candidacy opposite US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg). While Stelson is well known in the Lancaster area, a media market that touches York County, the bulk of the 10th District population lies in the Harrisburg/Dauphin County region. Therefore, she does not command district-wide name identification.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 10th District as R+9, which suggests a competitive race but one that a Republican should typically win. Rep. Perry was originally elected in 2012. He begins this race as a clear favorite for re-election.

Cities

Nashville, Tenn.: New Mayor Elected — The open mayoral runoff election was held on Tennessee’s unique Thursday election day at the end of last week, and the progressive left candidate, Freddie O’Connell an elected member of the Davidson County Metro Council, claimed the victory.

He easily defeated GOP strategist Alice Rolli on a 63-36 percent count. O’Connell will succeed Mayor John Cooper, brother of former Congressman Jim Cooper (D), who did not seek re-election.

Lamb Decision Affects Redistricting

Pennsylvania Congressional Districts


By Jim Ellis

Aug. 2, 2021 — Last week’s news reports indicating that western Pennsylvania US Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Mt. Lebanon/Pittsburgh) will enter the open Senate race on Aug. 6, could mean the congressional district he leaves behind becomes a redistricting victim.

Assuming the reports are accurate, and the congressman does launch a Senate campaign, he will be the only Pennsylvania US House delegation member to create an open seat. All others appear poised to run for re-election. This means the Lamb district will likely become the top option for elimination since reapportionment reduces by one the 18-member Keystone State delegation.

The Census Bureau is now telling the states they will finally begin receiving their redistricting data the during the week of Aug. 16. It appears the total data transmission will come in two waves, so all states should have what they need to begin holding public input hearings in early September, and then drawing districts. This is more than six months behind a typical redistricting calendar.

Based upon the latest available information, the state will have 17 congressional districts with a population number of what appears to be just under 765,000 individuals. Looking at the current 18 districts, all must gain population, hence the reason the state is losing another CD. Since 1930, Pennsylvania has lost more congressional districts than any other state.

The region requiring the least new population is Pennsylvania’s southeastern sector, in and around the city of Philadelphia. The western segment is the area that needs the most population with the exception of Rep. Scott Perry’s (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg/York) south-central 10th District that will require the lowest human increase, most likely fewer than 20,000 persons.

The three seats needing the greatest influx are all in west Pennsylvania, surrounding the city of Pittsburgh. Rep. Glenn “GT” Thompson’s (R-Howard) predominantly rural 15th CD looks to be the district most in need of additional residents, likely over 85,000 individuals. Next is Rep. Mike Kelly’s (R-Butler) 16th District that begins north of Pittsburgh and moves all the way to Lake Erie. This seat would need approximately 80,000 more people. Third is the district south of Pittsburgh to the West Virginia border, Rep. Guy Reschenthaler’s (R-Peters Township) 14th CD, that must also gain another 80,000 bodies.

Lamb’s 17th District that encompasses almost half of Allegheny County, all of Beaver County, and a sliver of Butler, needs over 50,000 more people, which pairs well with Rep. Mike Doyle’s (D-Pittsburgh) downtown 18th District that will likely require approximately 65,000 new residents. Therefore, eliminating District 17 with now no incumbent to protect it would allow the downtown seat to be filled and remain solidly Democratic, but also meet the population needs in the districts to the south, southeast, and north of Pittsburgh.

Politically, such a configuration would likely change the 9R-9D delegation to 9R-8D, and that will be a hard sell for the Republican legislature to make to Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, especially when he knows a partisan Democratic state Supreme Court could well have the final say once the inevitable lawsuits are filed.

Such a configuration involving the elimination of current District 17 works fairly seamlessly, though, particularly if the final map improves for the Democratic incumbents in the politically marginal eastern PA seats of District 7 (Rep. Susan Wild-D; Allentown/ Bethlehem/Easton), and 8 (Rep. Matt Cartwright-D; Scranton/ Wilkes-Barre/Mt. Pocono). This might be enough to sell a map that forces the Democrats to take the one-seat loss in the west.

There are many ways to re-configure congressional maps, and we will soon see many versions coming from Pennsylvania and all other multi-district states. Rep. Lamb’s move to the Senate race, however, if in fact he ultimately makes the statewide jump, will significantly change the course of Pennsylvania congressional redistricting.

Plethora of House Polls Released; All Tell Unique Stories

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 14, 2020 — In the past several days, 14 polls in 13 competitive House districts were publicly released, and they all tell a unique story. The synopsis is below (in alphabetical order):

CO-3:
• GQR Research – Mitsch Bush (D) 43%; Boebert (R) 42%

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (Aug. 3-6; 400 likely CO-3 voters) went into the field to test Democratic candidate Diane Mitsch Bush versus Republican Lauren Boebert, who unseated Rep. Scott Tipton (R-Cortez) in the June Republican primary.

The result here is not particularly surprising considering that Boebert was a shocking upset winner in the GOP primary. Mitsch Bush has a huge cash advantage, but Republicans will likely rally around Boebert in a district where President Trump should comfortably win.

IL-13:
• RMG Research – Londrigan (D) 43%; Rep. Davis (R) 41%

After seeing the 2018 election between Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) and challenger Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D) evolve into a 50.3 – 49.6 percent result, the pair returns for Round 2. The RMG poll (July 27-Aug. 7; 400 likely IL-13 voters), though over a very long sampling period, finds what has been clear for some time, that the 2020 edition will yield another tight race.

IN-5:
• WPA Intelligence – Spartz (R) 47%; Hale (D) 40%

The new WPA Intelligence poll (Aug. 4-6; 400 likely IN-5 voters) produces the opposite result of a survey we saw from the GBAO research organization in late June (June 25-28; 500 likely IN-5 voters). The latter study projected Democratic former state representative and ex-lieutenant governor nominee Christina Hale topping Republican state Sen. Victoria Spartz, 51-45 percent.

According to the current WPA data, Sen. Spartz, a Ukrainian immigrant, now holds a 47-40 percent advantage. The latter numbers are more consistent with the district’s voting history. Incumbent Rep. Susan Brooks (R-Carmel) is retiring.

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Pennsylvania’s Importance

Pennsylvania Congressional Districts Map (click on image to enlarge to see detail)

Pennsylvania Congressional Districts Map (click on image to enlarge to see detail)

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 6, 2017 — In every election, it seems one or two states become that cycle’s political focal point and we can already identify which places might serve in such a role for 2018. Along with California for House races, political fortunes in the Keystone State of Pennsylvania could well influence national Senate and House outcomes, while strongly contributing to the national redistricting outlook when the state’s competitive governor’s race is ultimately decided.

Gov. Tom Wolf (D) seeks re-election with improving favorability ratings and will be in a targeted 2018 campaign. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) is running for a third term and drawing considerable opposition, particularly from US Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton). US House competition is projected for as many as 11 of the state’s 18 congressional districts, some of which coming in primaries, and a live political gerrymandering lawsuit before the state court system could potentially radically change Pennsylvania’s redistricting maps prior to the next election. Therefore, we see a state teeming with political activity in each of its four corners.

Gov. Wolf came from nowhere in 2014 as a successful York business owner to capture the Democratic nomination, and then proved to become the only member of his party to unseat a Republican governor in what was otherwise a Republican wave election year. He will face his own highly competitive re-election battle next year, as the GOP must re-capture this statehouse to protect its congressional and state legislative gains as a new redistricting cycle will begin during this next governor’s term.

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