Tag Archives: Sen. Marco Rubio

DeSantis Appoints Ashley Moody

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 17, 2025

Senate

Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody

With Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R) confirmation as US Secretary of State virtually assured, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis made his announcement yesterday as to who will succeed the Senator when he officially resigns.

As expected, based upon recent predictions, Gov. DeSantis selected state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) to assume the Senate seat once the position officially becomes vacant. President-Elect Donald Trump will nominate his cabinet choices once he is sworn into office; when certain confirmation hearings are completed, we can expect the Senate to take swift action regarding key confirmation votes.

Sen. Rubio is expected to sail through the process, since he is a well known figure to all Senators. Once he is officially confirmed, the new Secretary of State will resign the Senate seat and Moody will likely be on hand to take the oath of office for her new position. This would mean no lapse in Florida Senate representation.

The same cannot be said for the similar situation in Ohio. Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance resigned from the Senate on Jan. 10, but Gov. Mike DeWine has yet to name a replacement.

It’s possible that the Governor is having trouble filling the seat. Lt. Gov. Jon Husted appears to be his first choice, but stories continue to surface indicating that Husted wants to remain in Ohio to fight in a tough open 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary.

A story appeared midweek that former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy met with the Governor last weekend to discuss the Senate position. This is a surprising development, since Ramaswamy, citing his position as co-director of President-Elect Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), withdrew his name from Senate consideration weeks ago.

Though the chosen individual will literally be handed a Senate seat, the long-term path is not without challenges. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who new Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) unseated in November, says he is not done with public service and is viewed as a possible 2026 contender vying for the right to serve the balance of the current term.

Brown raised a whopping $103 million for his losing 2024 effort. Considering his long record in Ohio politics, any appointed Senator would be forced to conduct an expensive major campaign versus a very formidable opponent.

Even if successful in 2026, the new Senator would again face the voters in 2028 when this particular seat next comes in-cycle. Therefore, whomever is chosen can expect to be in full campaign mode for a four-year period.

Attorney General Moody is close to Gov. DeSantis and has twice proven she can win a Florida statewide election. In 2018, Moody, a former circuit judge, was elected Attorney General with 52.1 percent of the general election vote. In 2022, she increased her vote share to 60.6 percent. As was explained regarding the eventual new Ohio Senator, Moody will run to fill the balance of her new term in 2026, and then have the opportunity of campaigning for a full six-year term in 2028.

Additionally, Moody will apparently face significant opposition in the next Republican primary. Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) said earlier in the week that he will enter the Senate primary regardless of whomever Gov. DeSantis appoints.

The current spate of Florida political musical chairs is allowing Gov. DeSantis, who cannot seek a third term in 2026, to continue shaping a large segment of his state’s future government. Not only did he pick Moody for the Senate, but he will now be able to choose a replacement Attorney General.

Furthermore, with former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) leaving his 1st District seat, current Florida CFO Jimmy Petronis (R) entered the special election field and is widely viewed as the favorite. Under Florida state law, any officeholder running for a different position must resign his current post.

Since the 1st District special election is scheduled for April 1, Petronis announced that he will leave his current position on March 31. Regardless if Petronis wins or loses the congressional seat, the statewide CFO position will be open at the beginning of April, and Gov. DeSantis will then have the opportunity of filling that position, as well.

Looking ahead, the state of Florida will experience a period of significant political change over the course of the next two years, and Gov. DeSantis will have the power to choose his allies to lead the state long after he leaves office.

Mills Looking to Enter Senate Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 16, 2025

Senate

Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Once Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is confirmed as our next Secretary of State he will resign his current position, which potentially launches a wave of Florida political musical chairs.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will choose a replacement Senator once Rubio is officially confirmed. It is expected that the Senator will be one of the first Trump cabinet nominees to complete the Senate confirmation process. He will then immediately resign from his current position upon receiving his vote. At that point, Gov. DeSantis will announce his replacement appointment.

According to a declaration this week, the whoever Desantis appoints as Senator will likely have Republican primary opposition in the next election. Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) has said he will enter the Senate primary regardless of whom Gov. DeSantis appoints.

Mills knows he will not receive the appointment. He confirms that the Governor has not interviewed him for the position, as has been the case with other GOP members of the Florida US House delegation. DeSantis, a former Congressman himself, is concerned about the slim Republican majority in the body and will not reduce the margin even further by choosing a House member.

President-Elect Donald Trump has already picked two Florida Representatives for appointments. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz was selected as Attorney General, but his nomination was met with strong opposition in the Senate, and it became obvious that he would not be confirmed. Thus, Gaetz removed himself from consideration for the cabinet position, but after he resigned from the House.

Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) has been chosen as President-Elect Trump’s National Security Advisor and indicated that he will officially resign from Congress on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20. His position does not require Senate confirmation so he can assume his new position immediately upon Trump being officially sworn into office.

Gov. DeSantis has scheduled the two Florida US House special elections concurrently, with the primary election coming already on Jan. 28. The special general for both the Gaetz and Waltz districts will be held April 1. When Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is confirmed as the US Ambassador to the United Nations, she will also resign from the House. This will take the partisan division down to 217R – 215D, hence the reason that Gov. DeSantis will not consider taking another House member for his Senate appointment.

The slim US House majority, however, is apparently not stopping Rep. Mills from running for the Senate in 2026. The second-term Congressman has already said that he will challenge whoever is appointed in the statewide Republican primary, and fight to win the seat. Doing so will open another Florida US House seat in the regular general election.

The special elections have already caused another opening. Florida CFO Jimmy Petronis (R) is a candidate for the Gaetz seat in the special congressional election and expected to win. Under Florida’s resign-to-run rule, Petronis has relinquished his position, thus giving Gov. DeSantis another position to fill.

Turning to the soon-to-be open Senate seat, betting odds suggest that state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) will be DeSantis’ choice. She is close to the Governor and has twice proven she can win a Florida statewide election. In 2018, Moody, a former circuit judge, was elected Attorney General with 52.1 percent of the general election vote. In 2022, she increased her vote share to 60.6 percent. If appointed, Moody would run to fill the balance of the term in 2026, and then have the opportunity of campaigning for a full six-year term in 2028.

Now, it appears that she, or another if DeSantis chooses a different individual, will not only have to run in ’26 and ’28, but a 2026 primary challenge will also be added to the succeeding individual’s political card. Therefore, the person chosen will be forced to compete in several statewide election campaigns over a relatively short period thus adding major fundraising pressure to the individual’s substantial legislative responsibilities.

To further complicate the political musical chairs situation, should Gov. DeSantis select Moody, he will then have another appointment to make, i.e., filling her vacated position as state Attorney General. If the Governor chooses a member of the state legislature to fill either the CFO or Attorney General’s position, he will then have to schedule further special elections to replace those individuals.

While 2025 is an off-year for elections, the world of filling political positions either through election or appointment won’t see any down time. With Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) in a similar position regarding choosing a replacement for Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance now that he has resigned from the Senate, the early 2025 political environment is anything but quiet.

Replacing Rubio; Vance Replacement Considerations in Ohio; Two California House Seats Called

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024

Senate

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R)

Florida: Speculation About Rubio Replacement — Rumors are being quashed that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) would either appoint himself or his wife, Casey DeSantis, to replace Sen. Marco Rubio (R) when he resigns to become Secretary of State.

With President-Elect Donald Trump already selecting three US House members for appointments, including Florida Congressman Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) as National Security Advisor as well as Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) as the nation’s next Attorney General, none of the state’s 19 other Republican House members will be considered for the Senate appointment since the new House majority is expected to be small. Rather, topping the list of potential appointees appear to be Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, state Attorney General Ashley Moody, and former Florida House Speaker Jose Oliva. Gaetz immediately announced his resignation from the House after President-Elect Donald Trump’s controversial announcement that he has appointed Gaetz as AG. With another House member being chosen for the new Administration, and the majority not yet being completely cemented, the Republicans may be flirting with political “gimbal lock” that could potentially lead to the Democrats gaining control of the body. Much more to come on this developing situation.

Gov. DeSantis will fill the vacancy when Sen. Rubio resigns after the latter’s confirmation as Secretary of State. The new senator will then run to fill the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 for a full six-year term. Sen. Rubio was re-elected to a third term in 2022.

Ohio: Ramaswamy Out of Senate Consideration — Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who President-Elect Trump appointed along with Elon Musk to head a new official government efficiency operation — known as DOGE, or the Department of Government Efficiency — confirmed that he is no longer under consideration to replace Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance in the US Senate.

Vance will resign from the Senate at some point before being sworn in as vice president on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, 2025. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then appoint a replacement to serve the balance of the current term. Since Vance was elected in 2022, the new appointed senator will run to complete the current term in 2026, and then again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle.

House

CA-27: Democrat Whitesides Unseats Rep. Garcia — Ex-Virgin Atlantic CEO George Whitesides has defeated three-term Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) by a 51.3 – 48.7 percent margin in the state’s 27th District, which is fully contained in northern Los Angeles County. The projection was made Tuesday, and Rep. Garcia conceded the election.

The result is not particularly surprising. The California Citizens Redistricting Commission members increased the Democratic base in this district making it a D+8 as opposed to a D+5 under the previous map. The ratings are taken from the FiveThirtyEight data organization that profiles all 435 US House seats. The Down Ballot political blog statisticians ranked CA-27 as the fourth most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference.

Rep. Garcia first won a differently configured district, numbered CA-25, in a 2020 special election. He was re-elected in the former 25th later that year, and then won again in new District 27 two years ago. In all three previous elections, Garcia defeated former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D).

CA-47: Dems Hold Open Seat — Democratic state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) recorded a come-from-behind victory over former state assemblyman and 2022 congressional general election finalist Scott Baugh (R) in California’s open 47th District with a 50.9 – 49.1 percent victory margin according to a projection made Tuesday. Republicans had hopes of converting this seat from the Democratic column, but the presidential election year turnout model in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+6 was too much for Baugh to overcome.

The Min victory means only five uncalled races remain, four of which lie in California. The current House count now stands at 219R – 211D. The 47th District was open because incumbent Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked the seat to run unsuccessfully for the US Senate.

The Case for Florida’s Under-Polling

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 3, 2024

Polling

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

The latest Florida research surveys may not be correctly depicting the Sunshine State’s political situation; recent history indicates they may be underestimating Republican strength.

We’ve recently seen several polls that project Sen. Rick Scott (R) as being in a close race against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), and now a new St. Pete Polls survey finds that 13th District freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) is trailing her new Democratic general election opponent.

Public Policy Polling (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; Aug. 21-22; 837 registered Florida voters; bilingual option available; live interview and text) publicized their late August findings that posted Sen. Scott to only a 48-45 percent lead over Mucarsel-Powell, this just one month after the Florida primary election.

Earlier in the month, Florida Atlantic University tested the state’s electorate (Aug. 10-11; 1,040 likely Florida voters; Interactive Voice Response system with bilingual option and online) and drew a similar conclusion. Their ballot test response yielded a Scott edge of 47-43 percent.

The St. Pete Polls’ 13th District survey (Aug. 27; 843 registered FL-13 voters; automated phone calls and text) found new Democratic nominee Whitney Fox leading Rep. Luna, 48-44 percent, in the first publicly released poll since May. In that month’s GQR survey for the Fox campaign, Rep. Luna led 51-46 percent.

Recent electoral and polling history tells us, however, that seeing Democrats performing well in Florida races during August is not unusual, but Republican strength then shows itself as the calendar officially moves into autumn. Additionally, the polling has typically inaccurately depicted Republican strength in the most recent campaigns.

For example, in the 2022 election, Gov. Ron DeSantis, where the Real Clear Politics website ranked his campaign status as just “Lean Republican,” was viewed to be in a much tighter contest than what the final results revealed. In that election, Gov. DeSantis won with a 19.4 percent victory margin, 59.4 – 40.0 percent, over former governor and ex-Congressman Charlie Crist (D).

The polling average, however, from the middle of October through the Nov. 8 election, according to the Real Clear Politics’ polling archives, only detected a 12.2 percent average advantage. Therefore, the cumulative polling understated the governor’s strength by approximately seven percentage points.

We saw a similar pattern in the 2022 US Senate race. There, Sen. Marco Rubio (R), at an approximate $30 million deficit opposite his general election opponent, then-Congresswoman Val Demings (D), saw a favorable polling mean average of 8.1 percentage points from the seven polls conducted from Oct. 1, 2022, through the November election. Sen. Rubio’s actual margin of victory was 16.4 points (57.7 – 41.3 percent), meaning the polling average proved 8.3 points below the Republican’s actual voting performance.

A similar pattern, though which much less data, was also present in Luna’s 2022 congressional race. The one published pre-election poll, also from St. Pete Polls and conducted over the Oct. 26-27 period, found Luna leading her ’22 opponent, Democrat Eric Lynn, by only one point, 46-45 percent, yet she carried the district by 8.1 percentage points in the actual vote. Again, we see another Republican whose strength was not correctly projected, in this case, by an undercount of just over seven percentage points.

One reason the Florida polls may be missing the GOP voting strength factor is how fast the state’s population and electorate is changing. At the end of the 2018 election cycle, the year Scott was elected to the Senate by just 10,033 votes from almost 8.2 million ballots cast, the Democrats held a 37.1 to 35.2 percent voter registration edge over Republicans, which translated into a raw number spread of 257,175 individuals.

Today, as an indicator of the drastic change that has occurred from that point in time to the present (Aug. 14th Florida voter registration report), the Republicans now hold an advantage of almost 1 million registrants (exact figure: 996,795).

It remains to be seen if the 2024 ballot test polling follows the same pattern that we saw in 2022, but odds are strong that the current data is again underestimating the Republican candidates’ actual strength.

2024 Presidential Polls Already Emerging; CNN Exit Polling Numbers; Senate Election Turnout Stats; Sen. Kennedy Planning to Run for Gov?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 16, 2022

President

Former President Donald Trump; Florida Gov. Ron Desantis (R)

New Polling: Already Testing for 2024 — The House of Representatives isn’t even decided yet, and already we see a series of polls testing newly re-elected Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) pitted against former President Donald Trump. The WPA Intelligence polling series finds the Florida governor opening up big Republican primary leads against Trump in several important nomination states: Iowa (+11), New Hampshire (+15), Texas (+11), Georgia (+20), and of course, Florida (+20). Count on presidential fever going non-stop for the next two years.

Voting

Exit Polling: CNN Releases Results — Though exit polling has not proven particularly accurate in past elections, looking at the results of the organization’s data still has value. A quick glance at the CNN data brings forth a couple of key observations. First, the Independent vote, which polling suggested through most of the election cycle was moving toward the Republicans, came back to the Democrats at election time. Self-described moderates were breaking Democratic, 56-41 percent. Those describing themselves as Independents voted Democratic in a 49-47 percent split. Within the cell segment, Independent women moved toward the Democrats in a 54-42 percent clip.

On the other end of the spectrum, Republicans actually were making their marks with minority voters, at least according to this data. Republicans were able to attract 39 percent of the Hispanic vote, 40 percent among Asians, and 13 percent with black voters. All of these numbers are an improvement from immediate past elections.

Additionally, while all men break toward the Republicans 56-42 percent, all women prefer the Democrats, 53-45 percent. Still, CNN measures that the national vote went Republican in a 51.3 – 46.7 percent swing even though Democrats held the Senate majority and it appears House control will come down to a minimum number of seats.

Senate

Senate States: Key Turnout Stats — Now that we are seeing closer to final turnout numbers in many places, we have derived some interesting participation statistics from the most competitive US Senate states.

In Georgia, the turnout may fall just short of the 4.0 million voters who cast ballots in 2018. The Nevada turnout, projected to just exceed the 1 million mark, will be an approximate four percent increase over 2018. In Wisconsin, once the final turnout report is released will likely show the same relative participation rate as recorded in 2018.

The Pennsylvania turnout looks to be up five percent from 2018. Florida, where Sen. Marco Rubio won an impressive 58-41 percent victory over US Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando), who was clearly one of the strongest Democratic candidates in the nation, looks to be six percent under 2018’s total. In Iowa and Ohio, where Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) won an eighth term and Republican J.D. Vance held the open seat over US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown), turnout appears to be down just under nine percent when compared to the 2018 participation rate in both states.

Governor

Louisiana: Sen. Kennedy Releases Poll — Armed with a fresh six years in the Senate with his 62 percent re-election vote against nine opponents, Sen. John Kennedy (R) is now admitting he is considering a run for governor next year when incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term. He then released a Torchlight Strategies poll (Nov. 9-12; 800 likely 2023 Louisiana jungle primary voters; live interview & text) that posted him to a 22-18-13-7-6 percent lead over state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D), attorney general and former Congressman Jeff Landry (R), Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser (R), and fellow US Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), respectively.

Nebraska’s Gov. Ricketts to Become Sen. Ricketts? Dead Heats in CA-21 & FL-27; Oklahoma Shock Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2022

Senate

Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts (R)

Nebraska: Gov. Ricketts Makes Succession Statement — Sen. Ben Sasse’s (R) resignation, to occur once he is confirmed as the University of Florida’s new president, has spurred discussion as to who will be appointed as Nebraska’s replacement junior senator. Term-limited Gov. Pete Ricketts (R), who refused to comment about his interest in assuming the position when Sen. Sasse announced his future plans, uttered a clarifying comment over the weekend.

Under Nebraska state law, a governor has 45 days to replace a resigning senator after the seat becomes officially vacant. Sen. Sasse indicated he will resign before the end of the year. Therefore, it is possible that Gov. Ricketts could make the appointment as one of his last official acts, or the likely incoming chief executive, University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen (R), would do so as one of his first duties.

Ricketts now indicates if he develops an interest in receiving the appointment, he will let the new governor choose the new senator and not appoint himself. In a crowded 2022 Republican gubernatorial primary, Gov. Ricketts endorsement of Pillen helped him win the nomination, so the early tea leaves are suggesting that the outgoing governor could be headed to the Senate.

New Hampshire: Dollars Changing Direction — Earlier, we speculated upon the National Republican Senatorial Committee eventually making the move to pull their media reservation dollars from New Hampshire and begin moving the money to places where the GOP candidate looks to be in better victory position — namely Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. With the NRSC’s canceling its $2.6 million budget for the Boston market, as reported by the Adminpact and Daily Kos Elections organizations, the move has been made.

This, however, does not mean the Republican sector is abandoning New Hampshire, especially since polling still shows nominee Don Bolduc within high single-digits of Sen. Maggie Hassan (D). The Senate Leadership Fund and other outside right-of-center allies have reserved another $23 million in media time, so they are clearly not giving up on the NH Senate race even though the state and national party leadership overtly attempted to deny Bolduc his nomination.

House

CA-21: Rep. Costa in Dead Heat — The Trafalgar Group released the first post-primary survey of California’s new 21st Congressional District and the results reveal a surprising dead heat between Rep. Jim Costa (D-Fresno) and businessman and former FBI agent Michael Maher (R). The poll (Sept. 30/Oct. 3; 515 likely CA-21 general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds the two candidates tied at 44 percent.

While the Central Valley region is showing signs of voting more conservatively than the rest of the Golden State electorate, the Republicans taking this district would be quite a stretch. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the new 21st, which includes downtown Fresno, as D+16 while the Dave’s Redistricting App crew calculates a 58.2D – 39.7R partisan lean. In the jungle primary, Rep. Costa unexpectedly received just 47.0 percent of the vote, but the Democratic aggregate total was 57.0 percent.

FL-27: Tight Race Prediction Coming True — In 2020, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) upset then-Rep. Donna Shalala (D) from a South Florida district that votes Republican to a greater degree than the voter registration figures might suggest. The GOP redistricting map drawers made the seat more favorable for Rep. Salazar, but it still rates as a D+1 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization and 52.4D – 46.5R on the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan scale.

Therefore, it is not surprising to see a SEA Polling & Strategic Design survey (Oct. 3-5; 400 likely FL-27 general election voters; live interview) finding state Sen. Annette Taddeo (D-Miami) and Rep. Salazar in a virtual dead heat (Taddeo, 47-46 percent). The poll also found Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) leading former governor and congressman, Charlie Crist (D), 50-44 percent within the 27th District, while Sen. Marco Rubio (R) held a 48-47 percent edge over Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando).

Governor

Oklahoma: Shock Poll — Largely due to fallout from his Administration’s handling of some of the Covid 19 relief expenditures and attacks over his former business dealings, polling has suggested weakness for Gov. Kevin Stitt’s (R) re-election bid. Now we see a new survey that, for the first time, projects the governor falling behind his Democratic opponent, Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister (D).
The Sooner Poll, which surveys the Oklahoma electorate for various media outlets, released their new data (Oct. 3-6; 301 likely Oklahoma general election voters) and sees Hofmeister holding a surprising 47-44 percent lead. Though the Sooner Poll contains a very small sample and therefore a high error factor, it is becoming clear that this race will now draw further national attention.

Crist Wins Florida Gov. Primary; Nadler Easily Defeats Maloney in NY; Mullin Wins OK Senate GOP Runoff

By Jim Ellis — Aug. 24, 2022

Primary Results

Florida Rep. Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg) easily wins Democrat nomination for governor to run against incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).

Florida: Crist Wins Gov Primary; Few Surprises — A busy night occurred around the country and particularly in the Sunshine State, as the political parties chose nominees in key statewide races and for Florida’s 28 newly drawn congressional districts. Thus, the last major primary date is now in the books.

The Florida statewide races were not in particular doubt. While Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio were unopposed in their respective Republican primaries, congressman and former governor, Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg), easily defeated Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, 60-35 percent, to claim the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. US Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando), as expected, was an easy 84 percent winner in the Democratic US Senate primary.

The competitive House primary winners were:

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R; 70-24 percent victory margin)
Senate President Pro Tempore Aaron Bean (R; 68-26 percent; created open seat)
Cory Mills (R; 34-21 percent; open Stephanie Murphy seat)
Maxwell Alejandro Frost (D; 35-25 percent; open Val Demings seat)
Rep. Dan Webster (R; 51-44 percent), Anna Paulina Luna (R; 44-34 percent; open Charlie Crist seat)
Laurel Lee (R; 41-28 percent; new seat from reapportionment), Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D; 66-29 percent)
Jared Moskowitz (D; 61-21 percent; open Ted Deutch seat)
state Sen. Annette Taddeo (D; 68-26 percent; versus Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar)
ex-state Rep. Robert Asencio (D; 69-31 percent; versus Rep. Carlos Gimenez)

New York: Parties Hold Specials; Reps. Maloney & Jones Lose — The very active New York congressional primary begins with a special general election win for the Democrats. In a race many believed the Republican nominee, Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro would covert, Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan successfully held the 19th CD in the Democratic column with a close 52-48 percent win. Ryan will now serve the unexpired portion of former Rep. Antonio Delgado’s term. Delgado resigned the seat to accept his appointment as lieutenant governor.

Curiously, Ryan will seek his re-election in the 18th District as he ran for both seats simultaneously. There, he will face state Assemblyman Colin Schmitt (R-New Windsor) who was unopposed in the open seat Republican primary. Former congressional aide John Riley won the 19th Democratic primary and now advances into the regular general election against Molinaro.

Another incumbent pairing was also decided last night. Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan) easily defeated Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan), 55-24 percent, thus ending the congresswoman’s 30-year congressional career. Nadler had led in all polling, hence the final result is not surprising, though the size of his victory is greater than expected.

Rep. Tom Reed (R-Corning) resigned his seat to accept a position in the private sector earlier this year. The Republican caretaker candidate, Steuben County Republican Party chairman Joe Sempolinski, won the special election to serve the balance of the term. He scored a 53-47 percent win over Democrat Max Della Pia. The latter man, however, won the regular election Democratic primary and he moves into the general election.

The competitive House primary winners were:

Nick LaLota (R; 47-28 percent; open Lee Zeldin seat)
Robert Zimmerman (D; 36-26 percent; open Tom Suozzi seat; versus George Santos)
Lauren Gillen (D; 63-24 percent; open Kathleen Rice seat)
Dan Goldman (D; 26-24 percent; created open seat)
Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R; 78-21 percent; in general versus ex-Rep. Max Rose)
Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D; 57-23 percent)
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D; 67-33 percent; in general versus state Assemblyman Michael Lawler)
Brandon Williams (R; 58-42 percent; in general versus Francis Conole; open John Katko seat)
Nick Langworthy (R; 52-48 percent; regular election successor to Rep. Tom Reed)
Rep. Claudia Tenney (R; 54-40 percent)

Oklahoma: Rep. Markwayne Mullin Wins Senate GOP Runoff; OK-2 Surprise — As expected, US Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville) scored a landslide special election Republican runoff victory, 65-35 percent, over former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon. Mullin advances into the special general election where he will be favored to defeat former US Rep. Kendra Horn (D). The winner will replace resigning Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) in January and serve the remaining four years of the current term.

With Rep. Mullin’s 2nd Congressional District being open, the primary’s second-place finisher, former state Sen. Josh Brecheen, won the Republican runoff with a 52-48 percent win over favored state Rep. Avery Frix (R-Muskogee). In Oklahoma’s safest Republican seat, rated R+55, Brecheen is now a prohibitive favorite to defeat Democratic nominee Naomi Andrews in the general election.