By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 30, 2024
President
Presidential candidate Dr. Cornel West
He could draw a percentage point or so of support from Vice President Kamala Harris in the key battleground states of Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, which could prove definitive. Dr. West might also be part of a matrix that could force the Alaska race into the Ranked Choice Voting round by helping deny former President Donald Trump majority support.
Senate
Florida: Another Close Poll — We’ve recently seen several polls that project Sen. Rick Scott (R) as being in a close race against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), Public Policy Polling (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; Aug. 21-22; 837 registered Florida voters; bilingual option available; live interview and text) publicized their late August findings that posted Sen. Scott to only a 48-45 percent lead over Mucarsel-Powell, this just one month after the Florida primary election. Earlier in the month, Florida Atlantic University tested the state’s electorate (Aug. 10-11; 1,040 likely Florida voters; Interactive Voice Response system with bilingual option and online) and drew a similar conclusion. Their ballot test response yielded a Scott edge of 47-43 percent.
Recent electoral and polling history tells us, however, that seeing Democrats performing well in Florida races during August is not unusual, while Republican strength then shows itself as the calendar officially moves into autumn. Additionally, the polling has typically inaccurately depicted Republican strength in the most recent campaigns. Therefore, it is likely Sen. Scott stands in better position than these surveys suggest.
House
FL-13: Rep. Luna Trailing in Post-Primary Poll — As is the case with Sen. Scott as explained above, we see potentially the same polling situation developing in the Tampa Bay area.
A new St. Pete Polls survey finds 13th District freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) trailing her new Democratic general election opponent. The St. Pete Polls’ 13th District survey (Aug. 27; 843 registered FL-13 voters; automated phone calls and text) found new Democratic nominee Whitney Fox leading Rep. Luna, 48-44 percent, in the first publicly released poll since May. In that month’s GQR survey for the Fox campaign, Rep. Luna led 51-46 percent.
A similar pattern, though which much less data, was also present in Luna’s 2022 congressional race. The one published pre-election poll, also from St. Pete Polls and conducted over the Oct. 26-27 period, found Luna leading her ’22 opponent, Democrat Eric Lynn, by only one point, 46-45 percent, yet she carried the district by 8.1 percentage points in the actual vote. Again, we see another Florida Republican whose strength was not correctly projected, in this case, by an under-count of just over seven percentage points.
NJ-9: Nominee Clinched — It appears the nomination process to choose a successor to the late New Jersey Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) has ended even before the official Democratic Party meeting to select a candidate has even begun.
After state Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) received a big bounce by obtaining endorsements from the local county party chairmen and other key local leaders, all of the other major candidates removed themselves from further consideration. Therefore, it appears that Sen. Pou will be the new nominee and will become a prohibitive favorite to defeat 2022 Republican nominee Billy Prempeh to keep New Jersey’s 9th District in Democratic hands.
