Tag Archives: Val Demings

The Case for Florida’s Under-Polling

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 3, 2024

Polling

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

The latest Florida research surveys may not be correctly depicting the Sunshine State’s political situation; recent history indicates they may be underestimating Republican strength.

We’ve recently seen several polls that project Sen. Rick Scott (R) as being in a close race against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), and now a new St. Pete Polls survey finds that 13th District freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) is trailing her new Democratic general election opponent.

Public Policy Polling (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; Aug. 21-22; 837 registered Florida voters; bilingual option available; live interview and text) publicized their late August findings that posted Sen. Scott to only a 48-45 percent lead over Mucarsel-Powell, this just one month after the Florida primary election.

Earlier in the month, Florida Atlantic University tested the state’s electorate (Aug. 10-11; 1,040 likely Florida voters; Interactive Voice Response system with bilingual option and online) and drew a similar conclusion. Their ballot test response yielded a Scott edge of 47-43 percent.

The St. Pete Polls’ 13th District survey (Aug. 27; 843 registered FL-13 voters; automated phone calls and text) found new Democratic nominee Whitney Fox leading Rep. Luna, 48-44 percent, in the first publicly released poll since May. In that month’s GQR survey for the Fox campaign, Rep. Luna led 51-46 percent.

Recent electoral and polling history tells us, however, that seeing Democrats performing well in Florida races during August is not unusual, but Republican strength then shows itself as the calendar officially moves into autumn. Additionally, the polling has typically inaccurately depicted Republican strength in the most recent campaigns.

For example, in the 2022 election, Gov. Ron DeSantis, where the Real Clear Politics website ranked his campaign status as just “Lean Republican,” was viewed to be in a much tighter contest than what the final results revealed. In that election, Gov. DeSantis won with a 19.4 percent victory margin, 59.4 – 40.0 percent, over former governor and ex-Congressman Charlie Crist (D).

The polling average, however, from the middle of October through the Nov. 8 election, according to the Real Clear Politics’ polling archives, only detected a 12.2 percent average advantage. Therefore, the cumulative polling understated the governor’s strength by approximately seven percentage points.

We saw a similar pattern in the 2022 US Senate race. There, Sen. Marco Rubio (R), at an approximate $30 million deficit opposite his general election opponent, then-Congresswoman Val Demings (D), saw a favorable polling mean average of 8.1 percentage points from the seven polls conducted from Oct. 1, 2022, through the November election. Sen. Rubio’s actual margin of victory was 16.4 points (57.7 – 41.3 percent), meaning the polling average proved 8.3 points below the Republican’s actual voting performance.

A similar pattern, though which much less data, was also present in Luna’s 2022 congressional race. The one published pre-election poll, also from St. Pete Polls and conducted over the Oct. 26-27 period, found Luna leading her ’22 opponent, Democrat Eric Lynn, by only one point, 46-45 percent, yet she carried the district by 8.1 percentage points in the actual vote. Again, we see another Republican whose strength was not correctly projected, in this case, by an undercount of just over seven percentage points.

One reason the Florida polls may be missing the GOP voting strength factor is how fast the state’s population and electorate is changing. At the end of the 2018 election cycle, the year Scott was elected to the Senate by just 10,033 votes from almost 8.2 million ballots cast, the Democrats held a 37.1 to 35.2 percent voter registration edge over Republicans, which translated into a raw number spread of 257,175 individuals.

Today, as an indicator of the drastic change that has occurred from that point in time to the present (Aug. 14th Florida voter registration report), the Republicans now hold an advantage of almost 1 million registrants (exact figure: 996,795).

It remains to be seen if the 2024 ballot test polling follows the same pattern that we saw in 2022, but odds are strong that the current data is again underestimating the Republican candidates’ actual strength.

House Democratic Leadership Sees
No Path to Majority in 2016

Feb. 15, 2016 — The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released its early primary and secondary target lists for the 2016 campaign, which is a rather curious grouping. It is already clear that the House Democratic leadership sees no path to the majority in this election, at least during this campaign period.

With the Republican advantage at 247 (once former Speaker John Boehner’s western Ohio seat is filled in special election) to 188, the Democrats would need a net gain of 30 seats just to obtain a one-seat majority. The fact that their primary and secondary target list includes only 24 races suggests that they are nowhere close to putting enough seats in play to seriously challenge the Republican leadership structure.

On the primary list of 16 candidates, two seats are already under Democratic control, CA-24, the Santa Barbara seat of the retiring Rep. Lois Capps, and the FL-18 district of Rep. Patrick Murphy who is running for the Senate. Therefore, what they believe are prime opportunity races number just 14.

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More Florida Surprises

Dec. 18, 2015 — St. Pete Polls, not known as Florida’s most reliable pollster but a firm that produces a large volume of research, released a new survey yesterday showing Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) bolting past favorite son Marco Rubio in the Sunshine State. The pollsters selected 2,694 previous Republican primary voters during the December 14-15 period through an automated response system.

The results find Donald Trump leading with 36 percent, followed by the Texas senator at 22 percent, and Rubio posting 17 percent, while former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush only attracts nine percent support. Dr. Ben Carson dropped to six percent. This is the first poll that finds Cruz eclipsing both of the Florida home state politicians, but Trump has been leading everyone here for awhile.

According to this data, Trump polls 40 percent or greater in two regions, Panama City and Gainesville. Rubio does his best in Miami, where he moves into second place and trails the leader 25-31 percent.

Florida hosts the largest Winner-Take-All primary (99 delegates), and will vote on March 15.

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House: IE Money Flying

The American left and right, including their respective major party organizations, are again spending abundantly in certain House races as we enter the final week of the campaign. In fact, according to new Federal Election Commission independent expenditure (IE) filings just made public, the two sides (House party organizations coupled with outside group spending) have combined to spend $26.4 million during just the Oct. 27-29 period. Of this total, Republican/conservative groups have spent a tick under $14 million, while the Democrats and liberal organizations have spent $12.5 million. Remember, all of these expenditures cover only a three-day period.

The top two races receiving monetary attention in this critical time frame are in New Hampshire, where Rep. Frank Guinta (NH-1-R) is defending the seat he won from ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) in 2010. In just the past three days, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has laid down $1.037 million on Shea-Porter’s behalf, mostly for media expenditures on negative ads against Rep. Guinta. Countering that number is the American Action Network, which dropped $637,000 to fund either positive Guinta or negative Shea-Porter ads.

The top Republican recipient is Illinois Rep. Judy Biggert who is having a difficult time in a radically redistricted seat that Democratic leaders designed to defeat her. She opposes former Rep. Bill Foster (D), who lost his 14th District seat in 2010. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spent $837,000 on Biggert’s behalf, while the DCCC countered with $743,000 to help Foster.

At least one other incumbent race is seeing combined party and group spending exceed seven figures for this short period. Minnesota Rep. Chip Cravaack (R-MN-8) has witnessed the NRCC and the American Action Network (AAN) combine to spend more than $1 million in his heavily Democratic district. Another such CD is the open IL-13 seat that Rep. Tim Johnson (R) is vacating. Republicans and the AAN dropped more than $850,000 here for Rodney Davis as compared to the DCCC’s $329,000 to help their nominee, Dr. David Gill.

The AAN spent more than $500,000 apiece in California (Rep. Jeff Denham, R-CA-10) and Nevada (Rep. Joe Heck, R-NV-3), in addition to the Guinta and Cravaack races, while the House Majority Fund dropped major six-figure expenditures to help New York Rep. Tim Bishop (D-NY-1) hold his Long Island CD and over $400,000 to help Connecticut Democrat Elizabeth Esty fend off a strong challenge from Republican state Sen. Andrew Roraback in the seat that Rep. Chris Murphy (D-CT-5) is vacating to run for the Senate.

A couple of surprise protects are popping up late for both sides. Democrats, particularly when seeing almost $1 million go toward independent expenditures in Michigan’s 1st CD that contains the state’s Upper Peninsula, believe they have a strong chance to unseat freshman Rep. Dan Benishek. Another strong sleeper campaign might be found in the Orlando area, as the DCCC is dropping more than $427,000 in order to help elect former police chief Val Demings over freshman Rep. Dan Webster (R-FL-10) in Florida.

Democrats are surprisingly spending copiously in Arizona and New York to fend off what they see are serious threats to freshman Rep. Ron Barber (D-AZ-2) and two-term Rep. Bill Owens (D-NY-21).

Republicans believe they have a great closing shot to maintain the new 1st District in Arizona, and to defeating Pennsylvania Rep. Mark Critz (D-PA-12) who won a brutal primary battle against fellow Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire (D-PA-4), only to find himself in a relatively strong Republican seat.

No surprise that the IL-17 contest between freshman Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) and local East Moline official Cheri Bustos (D) is hotly contested, as is the inter-party pairing in Ohio between Reps. Betty Sutton (D-OH-13) and Jim Renacci (R-OH-16). Both of these campaigns are considered toss-ups.

Of the top 10 races where Democrats are spending, three are to protect incumbents. On the Republican board, five of their top 10 expenditure races are for individuals already serving in the House.

House Challengers Outraising Incumbents

The second quarter campaign fundraising totals are being released into the public domain, revealing a number of House challengers actually raising a greater amount of money than their incumbent opponents. Today we take a look at a few of those stand-out candidates.

In California, Independent Bill Bloomfield posted an impressive second quarter total of $1.299 million, most of it from himself, as compared to the $180,000 raised by his opponent, 37-year congressional veteran Henry Waxman (D). Bloomfield spent heavily to top a slate of six other candidates in the June 5 jungle primary for the right to challenge Rep. Waxman in the newly drawn 33rd congressional district. Bloomfield, a former Republican who turned Independent after co-founding the “No Labels” business, has self-contributed more than $1 million to his own campaign, but the move is apparently making him somewhat viable against Waxman.

As we all know, the amount of money one spends on his campaign is not always commensurate with victory. Such is likely to occur in the new 33rd, as the Democratic voting patterns in a presidential election year will, of course, favor the Democratic congressional candidate. Though we are likely to see Bloomfield wage a spirited battle, Waxman is still the decided favorite to win a 20th term in the House later this year even though he currently represents just less than half of the new CA-33.

Looking at the newly re-drawn 7th district of Colorado, incumbent Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) may also be looking at a more formidable challenge than originally expected from Joseph Coors Jr., the great-grandson of brewer and Coors Beer Company founder, Adolph Coors. Mr. Coors reported taking in $787,000 in Q2 compared to Perlmutter’s $505,000. Reports indicate, however, that Coors made a personal contribution of $397,000 to his campaign during the quarter but, regardless of the source of his funding, the beer fortune heir and former CEO of different Coors Corporation-related businesses has spendable dollars in his campaign treasury.

Turning to Illinois, former US Veterans Affairs Assistant Secretary Tammy Duckworth (D) raised $889,000 in the second quarter as compared to Tea Party-backed incumbent Rep. Joe Walsh’s $318,000. Duckworth out-raised the freshman congressman by a better than 2:1 ratio. This race is sure to garner significant national attention come Election Day, and is one to watch. Arguably, IL-8 is the best Democratic conversion opportunity in the nation, and Duckworth’s candidate and fundraising abilities are putting her in position to take strong advantage of her political situation.

Finally, we take a look at the Sunshine State and a key race in Florida’s 10th Congressional district. Orlando former Police Chief, Val Demings (D) raised $292,000 in Q2 compared to freshman incumbent, Rep. Daniel Webster’s (R) $191,000. Demings has shown strong fundraising prowess with this being her fourth consecutive quarter bringing in more money than her incumbent opponent. The district, previously represented by Democrat Alan Grayson, switched from blue to red with Webster’s win in 2010 and became significantly more Republican in the GOP redistricting plan, by a net of nine points on the Obama-McCain 2008 presidential scale.

Additionally, the following candidates all raised more than their incumbent opponents during the 2nd quarter, meaning that we will likely hear from all of them before this election cycle concludes.

Democratic challengers raising more than their incumbent opponents:

  • Ami Bera – CA-7 – against Rep. Dan Lungren (R)
  • Eric Swalwell – CA-15 – paired with fellow Democratic Rep. Pete Stark
  • John Delaney – MD-6 – opposing Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R)
  • Bill Foster – IL-11 – challenging Rep. Judy Biggert (R)
  • Cheri Bustos – IL-17 – opposing Rep. Bobby Schilling (R)
  • Dave Crooks – IN-8 – against Rep. Larry Bucshon (R)
  • Ann McLane Kuster – NH-2 – challenging Rep. Charlie Bass (R)
  • Shelley Adler – NJ-3 – opposing Rep. Jon Runyan (R)
  • Uprenda Chivukula – NJ-7 – against Rep. Leonard Lance (R)

Only two Republican challengers forged passed their incumbent opponents in terms of cash raised in the 2nd Quarter:

  • Ricky Gill – CA-9 – challenging Rep. Jerry McNerney (D)
  • Richard Tisei – MA-6 – opposing Rep. John Tierney (D)