Tag Archives: Rep. Laurel Lee

Primary Results:
Alaska, Florida, Wyoming

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Primary Results

Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola (D)

Alaska: Peltola, Begich Finish 1, 2 — As expected, at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) finished first in the top-four Alaska jungle primary, but the unanswered question was whether businessman Nick Begich III or Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, the choice of the Republican establishment and former President Donald Trump, would become her prime competitor. While Rep. Peltola is knocking on the door of the majority support threshold as ballots continue to be counted, it was Begich who secured second place, while Dahlstrom finished almost seven points behind him and 30 points behind the congresswoman.

The next few days of jockeying will be interesting. The Republicans will have their best chance of unseating Rep. Peltola if they unite behind one candidate, and it appears their only choice will be Begich. If they remain divided among two major GOP contenders, then the outcome will be the same as we’ve seen before, which is that Rep. Peltola will continue representing the most Republican congressional district in the country to elect a Democrat to the House.

Florida: Scott Romps; No Major Upsets — The Florida primary unfolded as expected. Sen. Rick Scott (R) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) were easy winners in their respective primaries. Sen. Scott posted over 84 percent in the Republican primary, while Mucarsel-Powell captured just over two-thirds of the Democratic vote.

Sen. Scott and Mucarsel-Powell will now advance to the general election where the incumbent is favored in a state where the Republican registered voter factor exceeds its Democratic counterparts by more than 1 million individuals.

In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) was again an easy winner, exceeding 72 percent of the vote over Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock who moved into the district to challenge the congressman. Gaetz will now advance into the general election where he becomes a prohibitive favorite in a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+38.

In the Atlantic coastal 8th District, as expected, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos topped 72 percent of the vote to claim the Republican nomination. He will replace retiring Congressman Bill Posey (R-Rockledge) who announced that he would not seek re-election just before the candidate filing deadline expired. Haridopolos now becomes a sure winner in the general election.

In a St. Petersburg-anchored congressional district that can become competitive, marketing consultant Whitney Fox, as expected, easily won the Democratic primary and advances into the general election to oppose freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg). The congresswoman is favored, but the district electorate is relatively close. The Republican general election vote is likely to land in the low to mid-50s.

Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa), who Trump targeted for defeat before he decided to endorse her when no major GOP competition emerged, also topped 72 percent in last night’s GOP primary. Hillsborough County Commissioner Patricia Kemp, who was unopposed in the Democratic primary, will now become Rep. Lee’s November opponent. Since Kemp has under-performed on the fundraising circuit, Rep. Lee is viewed as a clear November favorite in central Florida’s most competitive seat.

Veteran Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) faced a credible Republican primary opponent, but the congressman easily prevailed with 61 percent voter preference. The primary should prove to be Rep. Buchanan’s most formidable challenge in a 16th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+13.

In South Florida, we saw a minor upset as Miami-Dade County School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller defeated former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey with a 54 percent vote total. She now will face two-term Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) in what appears to be a dead-even district on paper demographically, but with an electorate that tends to vote more conservatively.

Wyoming: Barrasso, Hageman Renominated — As predicted, Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso (R) and at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) were easily renominated with landslide Republican primary victories last night. Sen. Barrasso’s 68 percent victory at this writing and Rep. Hageman scoring 81 percent of the primary vote will send both office holders to the general election in what promises to be Donald Trump’s strongest state in the country.

Former Navy SEAL Edges Tester in New Montana Poll; California Appeals Court Upholds Pro-Fong Ruling; Challenger to Florida Rep. Lee

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 11, 2024

Senate

Retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy

Montana: Sheehy Edges Tester in New Poll — JL Partners returned a poll for the Montana State News Bureau (March 26-29; 503 likely Montana voters) and, for the first time this year, data shows the Republican challenger leading Sen. Jon Tester (D) as he attempts to secure a fourth term.

The survey finds presumptive Republican nominee Tim Sheehy, an aerospace company CEO and retired Navy SEAL, edging the senator 48-45 percent in one of the most important races to determine the next Senate majority.

The questionnaire did not contain a question about the presidential race, but Montana is again expected to be one of former President Donald Trump’s strongest states. Thus, a favorable Republican turnout model will also elevate Sheehy’s chances.

House

CA-20: Appeals Court Upholds Pro-Fong Ruling — A California appellate court upheld the lower court ruling that allowed Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) to compete in the congressional race after he was certified as a candidate for state Assembly. The Secretary of State barred Fong from entering the regular congressional primary under the premise that an individual cannot seek two public offices simultaneously. Through court ruling, Fong, in fact, did seek both offices, placing first in the congressional regular election and runoff, while running unopposed for the Assembly.

The appellate court ruling for the state would have sent the Central Valley political situation into chaos and, as the judges stated, would have invalidated a legitimate election. Such a move would have led to even more ambiguity, confusion, and additional special elections not only for the vacant US House seat, but also for Fong’s Assembly district should the assemblyman successfully win the congressional special election set for May 21. At this time, he is favored to win both the special and general election. Upon winning the special, Fong would immediately replace former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R), who resigned.

It is possible that Secretary of State Shirley Weber (D) could still continue along the appellate process, hopefully, from her perspective, convincing the state Supreme Court to address the matter. Unless that happens, Fong is likely headed to Congress.

FL-15: Candidate Comes Forth to Challenge Rep. Lee — In March, former President Trump called upon Tampa Bay area Republicans to field a primary challenger to freshman Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa) because she endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the ’24 presidential campaign. Now, James Judge, who ran in the area’s 14th District against entrenched Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) in 2022, is answering the call and will switch districts. He began the ’24 election cycle attempting to challenge Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R-Palm Harbor) in adjacent District 12.

Rep. Lee should still be considered a heavy favorite, however. Judge, running in a D+14 district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, recorded 43 percent of the vote against Rep. Castor. This is the type of performance one would expect for a Republican congressional nominee in such a Democratic district. Additionally, he spent just over $200,000 for that race, indicating he doesn’t have much fundraising ability, and a judge had to award him ballot placement in the 2022 election because he did not file the proper candidate forms, which originally led to his disqualification.

Rep. Lee was elected to the House with 59 percent of the vote in the last election from a district that 538 rates as R+7, but one that Trump carried only 51-48 percent. Prior to running for Congress, Lee served as a Circuit Court judge and as secretary of state when Gov. DeSantis appointed her to the position. In 2022, she won a five-way open Republican primary by just under 14 points against her closest competitor.

Trump Stirs Controversy in Florida; Fong Saga Continues in California; Republicans Choose CO-4 Candidate; New Jersey Primary Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 1, 2024

House

Florida Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa)

FL-15: Rep. Lee’s New Opponent — Former President Trump may have ignited a hornets’ nest when he called for a MAGA candidate to come forward to oppose GOP freshman Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa). While that has yet to happen, the controversy within the Republican base may have encouraged a new Democrat to come forward in what is a competitive district. Hillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp (D) announced on Friday that he will enter the Democratic primary and immediately becomes the favorite for the party nomination.

Trump targeted Rep. Lee because she was the only member of the Florida Republican delegation to endorse Gov. Ron DeSantis against the former president in this year’s national campaign. Florida’s 15th District carries an R+7 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. However, Trump won the district by only a 51-48 percent margin in the 2020 presidential election.

CA-20: Appellate Court to Hear Fong Ballot Status — The Vince Fong ballot saga is not yet over. You may remember because former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R) resigned from the House at the California candidate filing deadline, the Secretary of State disqualified Fong from running for Congress because he was already certified as a candidate for state Assembly to remain in his seat there. California election law prohibits candidates from running for more than one office simultaneously and the withdrawal deadline had already expired.

Fong sued over the decision and the court awarded him the congressional ballot line. Secretary of State Shirley Weber (D) appealed the ruling, however, and arguments will be heard this week. Therefore, though Assemblyman Fong has qualified for both the special and regular general elections for the congressional seat, an adverse appellate court ruling could send this succession election into political chaos.

CO-4: Republicans Choose Caretaker Candidate — Late last week, the local Republican committee formed to choose a special election nominee for Colorado’s 4th Congressional District special election to replace resigned Rep. Ken Buck (R) chose a candidate who agreed not to run for the regular term. The move is a break for US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), switching over from District 3, and the 10 other candidates in the regular Republican primary.

The committee chose former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez as their special election candidate. He will be favored to win the upcoming special election which is held concurrently with the regular primary on June 25.

Lopez, a former state director for the Small Business Administration, will be favored against the Democratic nominee who will be chosen later today. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CO-4 as R+26. Former President Donald Trump won the seat 58-39 percent in the 2020 presidential election.

States

New Jersey: Court Rejects Party County Line Balloting — New Jersey is one of the few remaining states where the county political parties have substantial power. What makes them strong is endorsing candidates in the primary and providing them extremely favorable ballot placements to the point where opponents are listed on separate ballot pages.

Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), running for the Senate, filed suit against the practice and the federal judge granted a preliminary injunction to halt the practice. While Kim is now becoming the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic Senate nomination since First Lady Tammy Murphy exited the race and Sen. Bob Menendez announced that he is not seeking the party nomination, his legal move will likely create a more even playing field for down-ballot races. This will probably become a major factor in changing how New Jersey primaries are run.