Tag Archives: Sen. Gary Peters

The Michigan Barnburner


By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Senate

A new Emerson College poll of the Michigan Senate race again suggests that we will see another photo finish in the 2026 campaign.

The latest EC poll (Jan. 24-25; 1,000 likely Michigan voters; 491 likely Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees a change in both the Democratic primary and the general election.

For the first time, Emerson projects state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) taking the lead over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed in the party primary. According to the Emerson ballot test result, Sen. McMorrow posts a 22-17-16 percent advantage over Rep. Stevens and Dr. El-Sayed.

This is the first poll that found someone other than Rep. Stevens holding the Democratic lead, though three of the other five polls released since early May have detected all three candidates polling under 30 percent support. Therefore, despite the projected change at the leader level, this race remains a tight, three-way toss-up.

The Michigan Senate seat is open because two-term incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) chose not to seek a third term. He likely would have been favored for re-election.

The general election polling is equally close. Likely Republican nominee Mike Rogers, the former Congressman who came within three-tenths of a percentage point of upsetting current Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) in the 2024 general election, will be a formidable November contender. He has led all three of the Democratic candidates at one time or another in early polling. Rogers slightly trails Rep. Stevens in most polls but leads Sen. McMorrow and Dr. El-Sayed in almost all isolated pairings.

In the latest Emerson poll, Rep. Stevens tops Rogers, 47-42 percent, and Sen. McMorrow would lead him 46-43 percent, while El-Sayed and Rogers are tied at 43 percent support.

It is interesting to see the general election sample finding Stevens further ahead of Rogers than McMorrow in the same poll where the Democratic segment favored the latter contender. This means that Rep. Stevens is attracting a better share of the non-affiliated vote than is Sen. McMorrow when paired individually with the Republican former Congressman.

Looking at the 2024 polling, we again see a Republican underpoll when compared to the final result. Such a pattern has been present in a number of states and was certainly the case in President Trump’s three elections.

In the Michigan ’24 Senate contest, 82 public polls were released after the August primary. In those, Rogers led in only three. While he didn’t win the race, he clearly performed better than projected.

Of the four organizations that tracked polling in the 2024 election, Real Clear Politics, the Five-Thirty-Eight data organization, which is no longer in existence, 270 to Win, and Decision Desk Headquarters, all found Slotkin leading by a larger margin than her actual victory percentage. Such was true regardless of whether all the post-primary polls were included or just those from late October to Election Day.

The Slotkin average lead ranged from a high of 4.1 to a low of 2.3 percentage points, remembering that her victory spread was just 0.3. In terms of raw numbers, Sen. Slotkin won the race by only 19,006 votes from more than 5.58 million ballots cast.

Therefore, if we surmise that a similar pattern might occur in 2026, then this race is likely to be decided by just a few votes irrespective of which Democrat wins the party nomination. The political climate at the time of the election notwithstanding, Rogers remains in prime position to record what many would still consider an upset victory.

Looking at the national Senate picture, the Michigan race must be rated as the Republicans’ best opportunity to convert a current Democratic seat, with Georgia (opposite Sen. Jon Ossoff), and New Hampshire (open seat) also in play.

For the Democrats, the best opportunity is in North Carolina where the consensus party candidate, former Gov. Roy Cooper, has won six statewide elections. He leads former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley in all polling, but North Carolina GOP candidates underpoll by a larger margin than in Michigan, and, for the first time in history Republicans exceed Democrats in registered party affiliation.

Democrats will also challenge Republican Senate seats in Maine (opposite Sen. Susan Collins), Alaska (against Sen. Dan Sullivan), and Ohio (challenging appointed Sen. Jon Husted). Their number one target, however, is North Carolina. In the others, right now the Republican incumbent should be considered at least a slight favorite.

Buttigieg Says No to Senate Run

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Senate

Pete Buttigieg / Photo by Matt Johnson, Flickr

Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) opting not to seek a third term has left the 2026 Michigan Senate race in a highly competitive open political mode. As we learned at the end of last week, however, one person who will not participate is former US Transportation Secretary and ex-presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg (D).

The former national cabinet official and ex-South Bend, Indiana Mayor publicly announced that he will not enter the Wolverine State Senate race despite leading in published polls. The one early released Democratic primary poll (Blueprint Polling; Jan. 30-Feb. 2; 536 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters; SMS text) found Buttigieg ahead of Attorney General Dana Nessel 40-16 percent but doing poorly within the important Black community in Detroit.

Rather, “Mayor Pete,” as he is often called, is apparently looking to follow the presidential winds, and his Michigan decision strongly suggests that he will be organizing another presidential campaign for the open 2028 national campaign when President Donald Trump will be ineligible to seek re-election.

Without Buttigieg in the Senate race, AG Nessel, who is ineligible to seek a third term for her current position, is a presumed top-tier potential candidate likely to be among those attempting to fill the Senate void. Congresswoman Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) is also reportedly making moves to organize a Senate campaign as is state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak). Nessel’s weak poll showing against Buttigieg suggests that she is anything but a lock for her party’s nomination.

Several other names are being floated as potential Michigan Senate candidates including Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers who came within 19,006 votes of winning the state’s other Senate race last November. He lost to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) by three-tenths of one percentage point from over 5.77 million cast ballots.

Rogers, who is expected to run again, may have an impending GOP primary fight against a woman who lost the most recent Governor’s race by 10 percentage points, former steel company executive, national political commentator, and 2022 Michigan Republican gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon.

While Rogers moves to the right in hiring Trump co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita as one of his key consultants, a new Fabrizio Lee & Associates poll (Feb. 17-19; 600 likely Michigan Republican primary voters; live interview & text) suggests the former Congressman may not be the prohibitive favorite for the next GOP Senate nomination despite his impressive performance in the 2024 election.

The Fabrizio ballot test finds him trailing Dixon 40-36 percent in a hypothetical 2026 Republican primary poll. Among those saying their vote would be definite, the two are virtually tied with 22 percent saying they would definitely support Dixon and 21 percent indicating the same about Rogers.

Dixon, however, has been more closely tied to the open Governor’s race since incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. If she returns to again enter the state chief executive’s office campaign Dixon will likely face an equally difficult Republican nomination run against Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills).

In 2018, James, as a first-time candidate, held veteran Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) to just over 52 percent of the vote. Two years later, he came within less than two percentage points of unseating Sen. Peters. Now, Rep. James, who won his congressional seat in 2022 and was re-elected in November, looks to be preparing a run for the 2026 open Governor’s contest.

It is already clear that we will see many more twists and turns in the Michigan statewide races before reaching the August 2026 primary election. It is already clear, however, even in this early going, that Michigan, featuring both an open Senate and open Governor’s race for the first time in the modern political era, will be one of the top political states to follow in the coming months.

Michigan Sen. Gary Peters to Retire; Florida Special Election Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2025

Michigan

Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D)

Saying, “I always thought there would be a time that I would step aside and pass the reins for the next generation,” Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) announced yesterday that he will not seek re-election to a fourth term next year. This is the first surprise political decision of the new political cycle.

The move is reminiscent of the 2024 election cycle, when another Michigan Senator, Debbie Stabenow (D), became the first incumbent to announce that she would retire. Sen. Peters, 66, also said that he “…never saw service in Congress as something you do your whole life.” The Senator’s comments suggest that he would venture into another type of livelihood potentially in the private sector.

The Peters retirement makes Michigan the political hotbed of the early 2026 election cycle. Not only will we see a competitive open Senate race here, as was the case in 2024, but the open Governor’s contest could feature a wild three-way political battle largely because Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan announced his candidacy as an Independent.

The Duggan entry enhances Republican prospects to win the Governor’s race because their nominee could take advantage of a split in the Democratic coalition, thus allowing the GOP candidate to win with plurality support. Until the coming election, Duggan had been a Democrat and is, of course, known as such in the state’s largest city where he has won three at-large elections.

Hosting two major competitive statewide races will certainly change the Michigan political landscape since many officeholders from both parties could enter each of these campaigns. In addition to Duggan entering the Governor’s race, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) last week declared for the Democratic Party nomination.

Turning to the Republicans, former state Attorney General Mike Cox has been making serious moves to enter the Governor’s race but has yet to formally announce his intentions.

Now, we can expect other statewide officials and US House members to be assessing their chances for what will be two major statewide campaigns with national implications. Watch for Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilcrest to make a move for one of the two slots, probably Governor. Attorney General Dana Nessel (D) is another who could be well positioned to make a move toward running for Governor or now Senate.

Within the Democratic congressional delegation, look for Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) and possibly Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) to test the statewide political waters. Early reports suggest that former Transportation Secretary and 2020 presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg is also beginning to study his potential of competing in an open Michigan Senate contest.

On the Republican side, former Congressman Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate election by just three-tenths of one percentage point must be considered at the top of the 2026 Senate prospect lists. Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who lost to Sen. Peters in 2020 with a small 49.9 – 48.2 percent vote margin and is already being discussed as a possible gubernatorial candidate, is likely to again consider running statewide. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) is another GOP House member who will probably analyze his prospects for one of the statewide races.

Sen. Peters began his elected office career by winning a seat on the Rochester Hills City Council in 1991. He was then elected to the state Senate and US House before winning the US Senate seat in 2014, succeeding 36-year veteran Sen. Carl Levin (D) who chose not to seek a seventh term.

Florida Special Election Results

As expected, Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis, bearing endorsements from President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), easily won the 1st District special Republican primary, which is the first step toward replacing resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R). Patronis captured 66 percent of the vote against nine Republican opponents. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to defeat the Democratic nominee, Gay Valimont.

In the Atlantic coastal 6th CD, also as expected, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) was an overwhelming winner in this special Republican primary election. Like Patronis, Sen. Fine had the public support of President Trump and Sen. Scott, among many other GOP leaders. He topped the field of two opponents with an 83 percent vote total. Sen. Fine is now a heavy favorite to win the special general election.

Both the 1st and 6th District special general elections are scheduled for April 1.

Potential Ticket Splitting?

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 14, 2020 — We’ve seen a preponderance of straight-line party voting in the past few elections, but two new surveys testing both the presidential and US Senate campaigns in respective states suggest a split ticket result could possibly occur.

Two polls were released earlier this week, one from Michigan and the other Montana, which find a constant sample plurality that suggests the respondents might vote for different party candidates in the presidential and US Senate race. In both cases, the respective Senate candidate is polling better than the same party’s trailing presidential contender.

In Michigan, Siena College/New York Times surveyed the Wolverine State electorate (Oct. 8-11; 614 likely Michigan voters, live interview) and finds that former vice president Joe Biden leads President Trump, 48-40 percent, but the same sample finds Democrat Sen. Gary Peters leading challenger John James (R) by only a 43-42 percent margin. Therefore, we see a net seven-point swing toward the Republican candidate as the voters move down the ballot.

We see a potentially similar pattern developing in Montana, but the parties are reversed. Here, Public Policy Polling surveyed the Big Sky Country voter sample (Oct. 9-10; 798 Montana voters, interactive voice response system) and notes that President Trump is topping Biden, 52-46 percent, yet in the Senate race, Sen. Steve Daines (R) and Gov. Steve Bullock (D) are tied at 48 percent preference. These results translate into a six-point net swing toward the Democratic candidate after the individual voter professes his or her presidential preference.

Both of these patterns appear unusual for contemporary election cycles that now see sometimes less than five percent of party members straying from their organization’s nominee while Independents follow their own predictable track. This tells us that non-affiliated voters in these two states may be acting more like true independents, which would constitute a relative break in the voting prototypes that have come to the forefront during this decade.

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SCOTUS: The Effect of Replacing Late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg On The 35 Senate Races

By Jim Ellis

Late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Sept. 22, 2020 — A secondary question surrounding the replacement process for the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is how will the confirmation fight over the next judicial nominee resonate in the 35 Senate races?

In the 18 campaigns that appear non-competitive (9D; 8R) – for example, in Illinois (Sen. Dick Durbin-D), Rhode Island (Sen. Jack Reed-D), Arkansas (Sen. Tom Cotton-R), and Idaho (Sen. Jim Risch-R) to name a representative quartet – the Supreme Court battle will have little influence over the Senate outcome since those situations are virtually decided.

If the individual campaigns play the issue correctly, however, the Supreme Court vacancy development could be a boon to most competitive Republican incumbents and candidates in traditionally conservative states that are moving closer to the political center.

Democratic challengers in the more conservative states could have trouble because the issue matrix likely to be discussed through the nomination and confirmation process should activate the more conservative voting base. This is likely the case in the key competitive southern domains (AL, GA, NC), and in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain states, particularly in Iowa, the Kansas open seat, and for the Montana duel, in addition to the far west campaign in Alaska.

Perhaps the senator in the worst confirmation question situation, and one who can ill afford to be embroiled in such a predicament, is Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R). Already trailing in polling to state House Speaker Sara Gideon, Sen. Collins’ immediate call to postpone the process, and what will likely lead to a vote against the motion to proceed, will likely cost her conservative votes that she badly needs.

Her position to postpone has likely angered many who comprise the conservative base and gained her nothing with the Independents and soft Democrats that she desperately needs to close the gap between she and Gideon.

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Committee Continuity – Part II

By Jim Ellis

July 29, 2020 — Completing our two-part series on changes we may see on some key House and Senate committee panels, today we look at the financial, commerce, and legal committees.

SENATE COMMERCE, SCIENCE & TRANSPORTATION

Republicans – Just three of the 14 majority Republicans are on the ballot this year, and two are in competitive races. Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner (R) is in one of the most difficult campaigns in the country, while Alaska first-term incumbent Dan Sullivan (R) is a clear favorite to win in November despite early polling showing a potentially close race. There are no open seats among the Republican committee members.

Democrats – The Democrats have 12 members, and Washington Sen. Maria Cantwell would replace chairman Roger Wicker (R-MS) if her party assumes control in November.

The Dems also have just three of their Commerce Committee members in-cycle, and two are in competitive campaigns. First-term Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) faces a difficult challenge from manufacturing company owner John James (R). Sen. Peters appears secure in polling now, but the race is likely to close. The contest was in toss-up mode before the COVID shutdown. The other competitive race is a Democratic primary, as Sen. Ed Markey faces a difficult toss-up challenge from Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Newton).

HOUSE ENERGY & COMMERCE

Democrats – This is one of the most important committees in the House, and majority Democrats hold a 31-24 advantage. The Dems are looking at four vacancies as Reps. Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM-3) and Joe Kennedy III (D-MA-4) are running for the Senate, Rep. David Loebsack (D-IA-2) is retiring, and Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY-16) was defeated in the June 23 New York primary. Just one majority member, Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ-1), could face a competitive opponent. The Arizona primary is Aug. 4, and we will know more once we see who wins the Republican nomination.

Republicans – Six Republicans will leave the House at the end of this term, including Ranking Member Greg Walden (R-OR-2). Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-MT-AL) is running for governor, while Reps. John Shimkus (R-IL-15), Pete Olson (R-TX-22), Bill Flores (R-TX-17), and Susan Brooks (R-IN-5) are retiring. Michigan Reps. Fred Upton (R-MI-6) and Tim Walberg (R-MI-7) have credible opponents, and Shimkus, particularly, is embroiled in a tough race. Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC-8) also has drawn an opponent of stature, but he remains a heavy favorite for re-election.
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The Senate Barometer

Sen. Cory Gardner Senate campaign attack ads hitting former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper hard (see COLORADO writeup below)

By Jim Ellis

June 18, 2020 — Next to discussion of the presidential race, the political contests attracting the most political attention and debate are the 2020 US Senate campaigns.

As we know, Republicans have a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning the Democrats will have to convert a net three GOP seats if Joe Biden wins the presidency, or four if President Trump is re-elected. Many believe that the winning presidential candidate will also sweep in a Senate majority for his party.

Below is an update of the key races:

• ALABAMA: In many ways, this could be the most important race on the board. Republicans must convert this seat back to their column in order to provide a greater cushion toward protecting their chamber majority. Sen. Doug Jones (D), who scored a fluke special election win in 2017, stands for a full six-year term in November.

Republicans are in a runoff election that will be decided on July 14, postponed from the original March 31 date. In the March 3 primary, retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville placed first over former attorney general and ex-Alabama senator Jeff Sessions within a field of seven total candidates, 33-32 percent.

Runoff polling, however, gives Tuberville a large lead as the contenders enter the last month of the secondary election campaign. The May 26-27 OnMessage survey gave Tuberville a 49-43 percent edge, down considerably, however, from the 55-32% margin the former coach posted in a Cygnal research group poll conducted over the May 7-10 period.

Tuberville, with President Trump’s endorsement and running an ad saying Sessions’ appointment as AG is the president’s top regret since taking office, clearly has the advantage. In the general election, this race is a must-win for the GOP. If converted, the Republican majority expands to 54, which will be critical for their chances to hold.

• ARIZONA: Things continue to break retired astronaut Mark Kelly’s (D) way in the early going opposite appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R). Being one of the top national fundraisers with $31 million raised and millions more coming into the state in the form in independent expenditures, Kelly is the favorite to convert the seat in November. He has led in the last 11 publicly released polls, the latest coming from the Civiqs organization, polling for the Daily Kos Elections website (June 13-15), which posts Kelly to a 51-42 percent advantage.

• COLORADO: Sen. Cory Gardner (R) seeks a second term, and with the state’s electorate moving decidedly to the left since the incumbent’s original election in 2014, the Colorado race sets up well for Democratic conversion.

There is some weakness developing, however, surrounding Sen. Gardner’s likely Democratic opponent, former governor and presidential candidate John Hickenlooper. Recently, the Colorado Ethics Commission ruled that Hickenlooper, while governor, twice violated the state’s gift ban, which has caused him negative statewide publicity.

Now, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has launched an ad campaign underscoring the commission finding just as the former governor approaches his June 30 primary election against former state house speaker Andrew Romanoff. Sen. Gardner also is on the air in a new ad highlighting Hickenlooper’s statements during the presidential campaign when he was quoted extensively as saying he didn’t want to be a US senator. Taking this into consideration, more people are looking toward the Democratic primary, in which Romanoff is gaining some momentum. This general election is a must-win for the Democrats.
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