Tag Archives: Sen. Thom Tillis

Q1 Money

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 21, 2025

The first quarter 2025 campaign financial disclosure reports are now public, and the totals reveal interesting individual candidate information.

The Down Ballot political blog statisticians compiled the figures from the Federal Election Commission filings and released the data report for all Senate and House early contenders.

Senate

A total of 41 Senate reports were filed at the April 15 deadline, 31 of which are from incumbent members currently seeking re-election. The four Senators who have announced they will not run for re-election, Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), are not listed in the report.

The top Senate fundraiser for the 1st Quarter is Georgia’s Jon Ossoff (D), who will face a tough re-election campaign. He raised $11.1 million and holds $11.08 million in his campaign account. It is possible that Gov. Brian Kemp (R), ineligible to run for a third term, may challenge Sen. Ossoff.

If the Governor declines a Senate bid, Ossoff will likely face one of his colleagues from the House, either Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), or Mike Collins (R-Jackson). Each has said they would have interest in running for the Senate should Gov. Kemp decide not to enter the race.

In addition to Ossoff, the Senators raising the most money in the first quarter were Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA) with $2.83 million, Thom Tillis (R-NC) $2.24 million, Cory Booker (D-NJ) $1.56 million, and John Cornyn (R-TX) $1.54 million.

Sen. Warner is preparing for a possible challenge from Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) and Sen. Tillis may face an electoral battle with former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), while Sen. Cornyn is facing a Republican primary challenge with Attorney General Ken Paxton and possibly Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), among others. Sen. Booker will have an easy ride to re-election next year, but his heavy activity could be a clue that he is preparing another presidential run.

A key point from the report comes from Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL). He has not yet said if he will seek a sixth term next year. Age is an issue because he will turn 82 just after the 2026 election. The fact that Sen. Durbin raised only $42,000 during the entire 1st quarter when the incumbent average for the period was $1.18 million suggests we may see another retirement announcement soon forthcoming.

House

In House reporting, 462 presumed candidates filed disclosure statements. The aggregate House money raised for the 1st Quarter 2025 was $177,248,000 for a mean average of $383,653 per unit.

This number actually skews high because 31 House candidates, 28 of whom are incumbents, each raised over $1 million for the quarter. The most well-known House members did the best.

The top quarter fundraiser was Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) with a huge $9.55 million obtained. In fact, despite being in the minority, Democratic candidates were the top three first quarter fundraisers. Following Ocasio-Cortez are Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) with $3.7 million raised with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) closely behind posting $3.6 million in receipts.

Not surprisingly, the top Republican was House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) who gathered $3.23 million. The two other top GOP fundraisers were also conference leaders, Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) with dollar totals of $2.43 million and $1.98 million.

Three non-incumbents were in the $1 million-plus club for the first quarter, and they, too, are Democrats. New York candidate Blake Gendebien raised $3.05 million in preparation for an anticipated special election to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), but such a vote will not occur this year as her nomination to the United Nations was withdrawn. Gendebien can be expected to run in the 2026 general election, however, particularly if Rep. Stefanik decides to enter the New York Governor’s campaign.

Colorado candidate Manny Rutinel and Wisconsin’s Rebecca Cooke also topped $1 million in gross receipts, but it appears they will have to spend much of their money against other Democrats. Each is being challenged for the party nomination in CO-8 and WI-3 to oppose Reps. Gabe Evans (R-CO) and Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), respectively.

Perhaps the bigger surprise of the fundraising quarter is how much money the most aggressive incumbents have in the bank. The average cash-on-hand figure for the 31 individuals in the million-plus club is $3.75 million. This number, however, is skewed by the four members with the most in their campaign committee accounts.

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) has the most cash at $19.5 million on hand. He has so much largely because Sen. Dick Durbin (D) may retire, and the Congressman is a virtual certain contender to run for an open Senate seat. The other three are: Reps. Khanna ($13.4 million), Ritchie Torres (D-NY) who may run for Governor ($12.85 million), and Ocasio-Cortez ($8.3 million).

Together, these four members hold 46.4 percent of the total cash-on-hand of the 31 top House fundraisers. The average cash-on-hand figure for the other 27 is $2.31 million.

North Carolina Senate:
Another Tight Race Forecast

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 23, 2024

Senate

North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC)

Tar Heel State Sen. Thom Tillis (R) stands for re-election to a third term in 2026, and another tough campaign is looming for him on the political horizon. In fact, history shows us that the preponderance of North Carolina political contests end in razor-thin victory margins.

Looking at the key statewide races since and including 2016, the winning percentages were as follows: 2016 President (Trump 49.8 percent); 2016 Senate (Burr 51.1 percent); 2016 Governor (Cooper 49.0 percent); 2020 President (Trump 49.9) percent; 2020 Senate (Tillis 49.9 percent); 2020 Governor (Cooper 51.5 percent); 2022 Senate (Budd 50.5 percent); 2024 President (Trump 50.9 percent).

As you can see, regardless of political party affiliation or even incumbency, a typical North Carolina campaign is extremely close. Therefore, Sen. Tillis can expect another close finish in 2026 especially if his Democratic opponent is outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper, which is a distinct possibility. Gov. Cooper is also speculated upon as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.

Sen. Tillis, the former Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, was originally elected to the Senate in 2014 when he unseated then-Sen. Kay Hagan (D) with 48.8 percent of the vote in another close electoral contest that ended in a 1.5 percentage point victory spread for the GOP challenger.

In 2020, Sen. Tillis trailed in the polls for almost the entire campaign, but rebounded to defeat Democrat Cal Cunningham after the latter man was caught in an ongoing extramarital affair. Sen. Tillis would post a two-point win but fell short of the 50 percent mark.

According to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, 28 surveys were conducted of the 2020 NC Senate race during the final month of the campaign. Cunningham led in 24 of the polls, and Sen. Tillis in only two, while two results found the men tied. The associated negative publicity relating to Cunningham’s extramarital affair helped turn the race Tillis’ way, along with the pollsters consistently under-counting the Republican support factor which is often the case in the southern states.

In 2026, it is conceivable that Sen. Tillis may face primary opposition, particularly if he decides to oppose one or more of the Trump cabinet nominees. Previously, Tillis had little trouble in his primaries, however.

He received 78 percent of the vote in 2020 and won a crowded initial primary in 2014 with 45.7 percent of the vote against seven Republican opponents. North Carolina has a 30 percent runoff law, so it is unlikely that a 2026 primary will produce a field of candidates with low enough support to force a secondary election. Therefore, expect a nominee to come forth through one intra-party election in both parties.

While Gov. Cooper would be the Democratic leadership’s first choice to oppose Sen. Tillis, there is no guarantee that he will run, possibly due to the lure of an open Democratic presidential primary season beginning just weeks after the 2026 midterm elections conclude.

Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) didn’t seek a second term in the House because his 13th Congressional District turned red in the 2023 redistricting plan. Instead, Nickel announced that he would bypass a 2024 re-election campaign in order to challenge Sen. Tillis in 2026. Therefore, the Democrats are guaranteed of having at least one credible candidate to make a Senate run in the next statewide election.

In the 2026 Senate races, Republicans will be in a defensive position similar to the way Democrats were defending themselves in ’24. Counting the yet-to-be named Senators from Ohio and Florida when Sens. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) assume their new positions as Vice President and Secretary of State and resign from the Senate, Republicans will be defending 22 seats and Democrats only 13. In the 2024 election, Democrats had to defend 23 seats as compared to the Republicans’ 11.

Clearly, the North Carolina race, mostly due to the state’s voter history that features such close elections, will be at the top of the Democrats’ conversion target list. Therefore, we can count on paying close attention to the Tar Heel State race throughout the entire election cycle.

Collins vs. Mills in Maine? Potential Senate Challenger to Lindsey Graham; Lara Trump Destroys Sen. Tillis in New Poll; Tenn. Gov Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 5, 2024

Senate

Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R)

Maine: Collins vs. Mills? — Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) did not close the door on a 2026 challenge to Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) when asked about the possibility late last week, but other comments and circumstances suggest that she is unlikely to launch such a campaign. In any event, expect the Democrats to field a strong candidate against Sen. Collins even if they fail to entice Gov. Mills into running.

As an aside, the governor was actually laudatory in a comment about Sen. Collins becoming the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Gov. Mills stated that she is “pleased” Collins will have her new position and termed it as “an asset for the State of Maine.” These are not quite the comments one might expect from a future political opponent.

South Carolina: Potential Challenger to Sen. Graham — Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who in November was just re-elected to his fifth term in the US House, is confirming reports that he is considering a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham or entering what will be an open race for governor. In the latter race, incumbent Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to seek a third full term.

Both races would be considered uphill. While Rep. Norman is more conservative than Sen. Graham, the latter man has a strong relationship with President-Elect Donald Trump. Therefore, what might normally be considered a Trump endorsement for Norman may not materialize in this case. For governor, the potential leading candidate is two-term Attorney General Alan Wilson (R), son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale). Another reported potential gubernatorial candidate is Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

North Carolina: Lara Trump Destroys Sen. Tillis in New Poll — The Victory Insights data organization surveyed the North Carolina electorate about the upcoming 2026 US Senate race, and a Republican primary battle between Sen. Thom Tillis and Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump would break decidedly toward the challenger. In the general election, both Sen. Tillis and Lara Trump would each trail outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper (D) by one percentage point according to the VI data.

Victory Insights (Nov. 26-27 & 29; 800 registered North Carolina voters; interactive voice response system & text) finds that among an undisclosed sample of Republican primary voters, Trump, a native of North Carolina, would easily defeat Sen. Tillis in the GOP primary by a whopping 64-11 percent count. At this point, there is no indication that she would run, but this poll is certainly a warning sign for Sen. Tillis.

Governor

Tennessee: Rep. Burchett Considering Gov Race — Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) is another of the state chief executives who is ineligible to seek re-election, thereby the Volunteer State will also feature an open governor’s campaign. Even before the 2024 election, Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) made clear his intention to run for governor. Now, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) is also confirming that he, too, is considering a run for the state’s top job.

We are sure to see crowded open seat gubernatorial primaries in both parties around the country in 2026. It already appears that Tennessee will certainly feature a hot contest to succeed Gov. Lee.

Trump Sweeping Biden in Swing States; Malinowski Searches for NJ Senate Support; GOP Puts Forth Interesting NY-3 Candidate; NC-13 Rep. Wiley Nickel Out; Longtime Pol Jumps Into NJ Race

Former President Donald Trump up in polling.

By Jim Ellis, Monday, Dec. 18, 2023

President

Bloomberg/Morning Consult Polls: Trump Sweeping Biden in Swing States — Bloomberg News and Morning Consult partnered for a swing state polling series in the domains that will likely decide the 2024 presidential election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Individual surveys were conducted in each state during the Nov. 27 through Dec. 6 period. Sample sizes ranged from 451 registered voters to 801 such individuals depending upon the state’s population size. All included Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the questionnaire along with Independent Cornel West and likely Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

Trump led in all seven polls both when the ballot test included the minor candidates and when he and President Joe Biden were isolated. Trump’s margins (with the minor party candidates) were: Arizona (+4), Georgia (+7), Michigan (+4), Nevada (+5), North Carolina (+9), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+6).

To win the election, Trump would need to hold North Carolina, and carry Georgia plus one or two of the other aforementioned states. Trump’s smallest configuration to yield a victory of 270 electoral votes — and this assumes he holds all the other states he won in 2020 — would include Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

Senate

New Jersey: Ex-Rep. Malinowski Interviews for Party Senate Endorsements — Former US Rep. Tom Malinowski (D), who served two terms in the House before his re-election defeat in 2022 and who is now an unannounced US Senate candidate, conducted interviews with the Union County municipal Democratic Party chairmen seeking their endorsement for his potential statewide bid. Malinowski represented most of Union County in the US House. New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy and US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) already are in the primary race, challenging indicted Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez.

Malinowski would have to overcome long odds in order to win the party nomination, and it is no foregone conclusion that he will actually enter the race. Despite calls for his resignation, Menendez is not leaving the Senate, nor has he ruled out running for re-election. Polls, however, suggest he would badly lose the Democratic primary.

House

NY-3: Local Republicans Nominate Mazi Melesa Pilip — The Nassau and Queens County Republican Party chairmen have nominated Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip, an Ethiopian-born former member of the Israeli military, as their special election congressional nominee. She will oppose the Democratic nominee, former Congressman Tom Suozzi in the Feb. 13 special election to serve the balance of expelled Rep. George Santos’ (R) term.

Interestingly, Pilip is reportedly still a registered Democrat even though she is an elected Republican and will now be the GOP congressional nominee. She is an interesting choice that will likely draw more attention to what is likely to become a competitive special election.

NC-13: Rep. Wiley Nickel Won’t Seek Re-Election, Will Return in 2026 — In an admission that he would not be successful running for re-election in North Carolina’s newly configured 13th Congressional District, Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) announced late last week that he would end his career in the US House after one term. Rather, he will return to elective politics in 2026 and challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R). In that year, Sen. Tillis, assuming he seeks re-election, will be on the ballot for a third term.

The new 13th District begins in the Dunn area south of Raleigh in Harnett County. The seat then moves northward around Raleigh on the east side of Wake County and stretches to the Virginia border. The 2022 state Supreme Court drew a 13th District that shared part of Wake County, annexing the city of Cary, and then moved south of the capital city to include Johnston County and parts of Hartnett and Wayne Counties.

The partisan lean for new Congressional District 13, according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, is 56.6R – 41.2D. Under the map to which Rep. Nickel was elected, the 13th CD held a much different 49.5D – 48.1R partisan lean.

Also leaving the North Carolina congressional delegation are Reps. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) and Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte), who like Rep. Nickel face difficult re-election odds on the new Tar Heel State congressional map. Jackson is running for the open state attorney general’s position and will probably face his colleague in the adjoining congressional district, Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte), in the statewide race.

Governor

New Jersey: Defeated State Senate President Launches ’25 Gov Campaign — Former New Jersey state Senate President Steve Sweeney (D), who served in the legislature for 20 years before his shocking upset defeat in the 2021 election, announced that he will enter the open 2025 gubernatorial campaign. Sweeney presided over the state Senate as its president for a 14-year period.

Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term and as in Virginia, where another odd-numbered gubernatorial position will be open, candidates are already announcing for their respective offices long before even the 2024 election transpires.

Announcing for the 2025 gubernatorial race before Sweeney was Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop. Both US Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) and Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) are reported to be testing the waters to also run for governor. For the Republicans, former state legislator Jack Ciattarelli — immediately after his close 2021 loss to Gov. Murphy — already announced that he would return for another gubernatorial bid in 2025.

Two More Presidential Prospects; New Candidate for NC Gov’s Race; Chicago, Houston Mayoral News

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 30, 2023

President

North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC)

New Prospects: Two Schedule Trips to Primary States — A pair of new Republican potential presidential candidates appear to be exploring the national campaign hustings. Reportedly, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R) are beginning to test the political waters with appearances in the early primary states.

Should they move forward, former President Trump will likely be the big winner. The greater number of individuals who have little chance of winning the nomination but still become candidates makes it easier for Trump to score plurality victories and secure the highest number of delegates.

States

North Carolina: New Gubernatorial Candidate Enters — Tar Heel State Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) has received the preponderance of early attention regarding the 2024 open Republican gubernatorial nomination, but another individual has jumped ahead of him to become the first official GOP candidate. State Treasurer Dale Folwell declared his gubernatorial candidacy Monday, thus setting up a tough primary battle with Robinson, who is set to soon officially announce his bid.

The lone Democrat in the race, Attorney General Josh Stein, is well on his way to becoming a consensus party candidate. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. As with all North Carolina statewide races, the 2024 battle will yield a tight final result.

Cities

Chicago: Breaking Vallas’ Way — Two positive occurrences happened Monday for Chicago mayoral candidate Paul Vallas, now just one week away from runoff election day. First, Emerson College released their new survey conducted for the WGN Television in Chicago and The Hill newspaper in Washington, DC. The study (March 23-25; 1,000 likely Chicago voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts Vallas to a 46-41 percent lead over Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson. The polls have see-sawed throughout the runoff period.

Secondly, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) has announced his public support of Vallas, thus bringing him more key Illinois Democratic establishment support. The election is scheduled for April 4.

Houston: Rep. Jackson Lee (D) to Run for Mayor — As has been anticipated for several months, Texas US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) announced Monday that she will enter the 2023 open Houston mayor’s race. The congresswoman will not have to risk her US House seat to run for the post, but must resign if elected. If this occurs, a special election will then be scheduled to fill the unexpired portion of her congressional term. Already, a field of 11 individuals have announced their mayoral candidacies even though candidate filing doesn’t conclude until Aug. 21.

The major candidates, in addition to Rep. Jackson Lee who was first elected to Congress in 1994, include state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston), former city councilwoman and ex-US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards, Houston Metro Board member and ex-Texas Democratic Party Vice Chairman Chris Hollins, and attorney Lee Kaplan. Incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner is ineligible to seek a third term.

Michigan Moves Primary; New Polling Results For Arizona Senate Race; Tillis Out in NC Gov. Race

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 3, 2023

President

Michigan: State House Passes Bill to Move Primary — The Michigan House of Representatives approved a measure to move the state’s primary to the fourth Tuesday in February, just ahead of the Super Tuesday voting primaries. Michigan was one of the states that President Biden outlined in his suggested primary schedule changes. Dropping Iowa and adding Georgia along with the Wolverine State and keeping South Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada as the five states with permission to vote before Super Tuesday recaps the president’s recommendations.

The Michigan Senate has already approved the primary election measure, which means the bill will head to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) for her signature. Republicans opposed the legislation because moving the primary would cause them to violate the GOP party rules that only allow Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina to vote early. Such penalties could mean the forfeiting of 90 percent of a state’s delegate votes.

Expect the parties and states to come to a scheduling agreement in the near future. The first votes are scheduled for this time next year.

Senate

Arizona: New Three-Way Polling — The Normington Petts survey research firm conducted a poll (Jan. 18-23; 80 registered Arizona voters) for three progressive left Arizona organizations testing Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) opposite Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, and both 2022 Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), who has not closed the door on running for the Senate, and former Gov. Doug Ducey (R), who says a Senate race is not under his consideration.

While the poll sponsors were highlighting Gallego’s performance, it is Sinema’s standing that has greatly improved since previous polls were made public. In the configuration with Gallego and Lake, Sen. Sinema, while still running in third place, improves her standing to 24 percent as opposed to 14 and 13 percent respectively in December and early January polls from Public Policy Polling and Blueprint Polling. Rep. Gallego and Lake were tied at 36 percent apiece.

When Normington Petts tested Sen. Sinema with Rep. Gallego and former Gov. Ducey, the congressman held a 37-31-27 percent advantage over the GOP ex-state chief executive and Sen. Sinema, respectively. The progression suggests that Sen. Sinema is coming into a competitive position as the prospective candidates begin to prepare for a three-way race.

Michigan: Ex-Congressman Contemplates Senate Race — Former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R), who chaired the House Intelligence Committee during part of his seven-term congressional career, confirms that he is considering making a return to elective politics with a potential US Senate run. The move would give the Republicans a strong contender in a state that routinely produces close statewide elections. Before his election to the US House, Rogers served six years in the Michigan state Senate. He has been in the private sector and the media since his retirement from Congress.

Governor

North Carolina: Sen. Tillis Out of Gov Race — Despite his name being added to ballot test questions from some pollsters surveying the impending open North Carolina governor’s race, Sen. Thom Tillis (R) made the definitive statement yesterday that he will not be a candidate for the state’s chief executive post. Sen. Tillis did say, however, that he expects a contested GOP primary to evolve. At this point, the leading Republican candidate appears to be Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein is the lone major announced contender in his party.

Beasley Up in North Carolina; CO-8 Shows Toss-Up Race; Dem Race Tightens in Florida

By Jim Ellis — August 12, 2022

Senate

Former North Carolina state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D)

North Carolina: Democrat Beasley Up in New Poll — Blueprint Polling released a new North Carolina US Senate poll (Aug. 4-6; 656 registered North Carolina voters; live interview) that projects former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) to be holding a 46-42 percent edge over US Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance). A Republican being down in a North Carolina poll is nothing new, however. In 2020, GOP Sen. Thom Tillis found himself outside the lead in 26 of 28 October public polls but won the race by two percentage points.

House

CO-8: Toss-Up District Shows Toss-Up Race — Colorado received a new congressional district in national reapportionment, and the Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew the new seat, located just north of Denver, to be an even district from a partisan perspective. A new Global Strategy Group poll (July 26-Aug. 2; 500 likely CO-8 general election voters) suggests the district is performing as designed. The ballot test finds Republican state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer leading state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) by a tight 44-42 percent margin. This district is highly important to both parties in determining the next congressional majority.

NY-12: Potential Three-Way Race — Slingshot Strategies, polling for the Indian American Impact Fund (Aug. 2-5; 600 likely NY-12 Democratic primary voters) sees a tight ballot test forming between Democratic paired incumbents Jerrold Nadler and Carolyn Maloney, but also a third candidate coming into range. Businessman Suraj Patel returns for a third Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Maloney, and the poll, the sponsors of which favor Patel, find the race breaking 29-27-20 percent in favor of Rep. Nadler. Maloney holds a close second place, with Patel showing enough momentum to possibly make a significant closing run.

The New York congressional primary is Aug. 23. The Democratic primary in this new Lower Manhattan/Brooklyn congressional district easily wins the seat in the general election.

Governor

Florida: Dem Race Tightens — State Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried released a new Public Policy Polling survey (Aug. 8-9; 664 likely Florida Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) that suggests the primary race scheduled for Aug. 23 is becoming much closer.

The PPP data finds Rep. Charlie Crist’s (D-St. Petersburg) once substantial lead over Fried now falling to just 42-35 percent suggesting that the latter candidate may have enough closing momentum to cast doubt over the eventual outcome especially with 23 percent saying they are still undecided. The eventual Democratic nominee begins a shortened general election cycle in the underdog position opposite GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis.