Tag Archives: state Sen. Mallory McMorrow

Platner Plotting; McMorrow Out

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Senate

While the Graham Platner Senate candidacy saga continues in Maine, another US Senate campaign development is unfolding in Michigan, the site of another critical 2026 contest.

Michigan State Sen. Mallory McMorrow

Wolverine State Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), after seeing her fortunes tumble recently with poor polling results, announced that she is suspending her US Senate campaign. The move means that what was an interesting three-way Democratic primary has now been boiled down to a race between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, which won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

The plot thickens in Maine after most Democratic leaders are calling for Senate nominee Platner to withdraw from the race after yet another sexual assault incident, this time referenced as a rape, became public this week as victim Jenny Racicot came forward to tell her story.

Time is of the essence in Maine because the deadline for nominees to withdraw from their respective campaigns is Monday, July 13. While party leaders call for Platner to leave the race so they can choose a replacement nominee before July 27, the party nominee who received 72 percent of the primary vote on June 9th has yet to acquiesce to the withdrawal demands.

At least until Monday, Platner is in the power position since he does not have to withdraw because he is the official nominee and is apparently making current demands of the party leadership.

While reports are surfacing that many supporters, including his campaign manager, are telling Platner that he can overcome the current bad publicity over the rape accusation – he publicly denies Racicot’s accounting of her story – the nominee is reportedly telling the party leaders that one price for him leaving the race is that he be allowed to choose his own successor.

Withdrawal deadlines are stated under Maine’s election law, and the party is given a time period – in 2026, until July 27 – to choose a new nominee; but the law is silent regarding the replacement procedure. The deadline exists, but not the method by which Maine would replace Platner should he resign.

While many Democratic politicians are beginning to position themselves in an attempt to succeed Platner, including many of the gubernatorial candidates who lost on June 9, such moves become moot if the nominee refuses to withdraw by Monday. Therefore, if Platner does nothing between now and Monday afternoon, he remains the Democratic US Senate nominee.

In certain ways, the Michigan race is the harbinger of which party will control the Senate in the next Congress. While Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority margin, a party loss in North Carolina to Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper, which appears likely at this point, will pull the Democrats within a 52-48 deficit.

Among the three competitive Democratic defense states this year – Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire – the Republicans’ best chance at scoring a conversion comes in the Wolverine State where former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers has a legitimate chance to win the general election.

Before Sen. McMorrow made the move to end her active campaign, the battle appeared as a tight three-way contest among McMorrow, Stevens, and El-Sayed. Recent polling, however, detected McMorrow falling significantly behind, leading to her early exit.

Eight polls, from seven different pollsters over a period beginning in mid-May to the present. find El-Sayed leading the race with McMorrow now trailing far behind, averaging just 13 percent support and placing third in each of these Democratic Senate race polls.

The Democratic battle will now continue as Rep. Stevens will attempt to attract the McMorrow support in order to overcome El-Sayed’s lead. We can expect a close outcome on Aug. 4.

With Democrats having ongoing problems in these two critical Senate races, Republican prospects of holding their small majority have improved. Next week is sure to bring further interesting developments in both Michigan and Maine.

Michigan Matters

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 20, 2026

Senate

New polling suggests the Michigan Senate Democratic primary is evolving into a dead heat among three participants all with equivalent voter support and campaign financing.

The open Senate primary, which won’t be decided until Aug. 4, is already white hot. The Data for Progress research organization released the results of their latest survey (for the Zeteo news site; April 2-8; 515 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters; online) and found a literal three-way tie, 23-22-22 percent, among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

Emerson College soon after released their new poll of the Michigan Senate race (April 11-13; 519 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and while detecting a tie for first place (El-Sayed 24 percent; McMorrow 24 percent), Rep. Stevens lags behind with only 13 percent support within their sampling universe. The latter result is obviously a major difference when compared with the former and depicts the volatility in the Michigan Democratic campaign.

Fundraising is sizzling, as well. The latest Federal Election Commission reports are public for the 1st Quarter of 2026 and we see Sen. McMorrow having raised $8.6 million with $3.7 million cash-on-hand. Dr. El-Sayed accumulated a comparable $7.6 million, with $2.5 million remaining to be spent. Rep. Stevens has attracted $6.8 million in campaign receipts, with $3.0 million in her account.

The person with the most to gain from what promises to be a long and hard-fought Democratic primary is consensus Republican candidate Mike Rogers.

The Emerson College survey (452 likely Michigan Republican primary voters) posts the former seven-term Congressman to a whopping 55-2-2 percent lead over dentist Kent Benham and businessman Andrew Kamal so Rogers has little to fear from a primary challenge. This means, among other advantages, that he can hold the vast majority of his financial assets until the general election.

The former Congressman and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee was also the Republican Senate nominee in 2024. Far exceeding his polling numbers, Rogers fell just 19,006 votes short (from a total turnout of over 5.5 million voters) against then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin who was billed as being one of the best Democratic candidates in the country and certainly a prolific fundraiser.

In the 2024 campaign, Rogers was badly outspent as Slotkin had a better than 4:1 expenditure advantage, but vote margin between the two was only three-tenths of one percentage point. Outside spending from Rogers’ allies helped narrow the spending difference, but Slotkin maintained a significant resource edge throughout the campaign.

Being outspent is likely not his problem this year. Rogers has raised $7.6 million through the first quarter of 2026 and holds $4.2 million in his campaign account. He will continue to raise funds through the primary season and will likely have a huge short term cash advantage over his eventual Democratic opponent no matter which one of the three finally secures the party nomination.

The other Rogers advantage is the three Democrats will be forced to move far to the left in order to secure the party nomination in the plurality primary. Therefore, it is possible that Rogers could be in a position on the day after the Aug. 4 primary to be facing an opponent in a short general election cycle who must start from ground zero on fundraising, since it is clear that all three contenders will be forced to spend what they have to secure the party nomination, and hold some positions well beyond the Michigan ideological mainstream.

The Wolverine State is one of the top places that will determine which party controls the Senate in the next Congress. With the political situation in the Democratic primary and Rogers likely beginning the general election in a favorable position opposite his eventual opponent, the Michigan race will be the Republicans’ best opportunity to convert a Democratic seat. Being successful here would virtually clinch the GOP’s goal of continuing as the Senate’s majority party.

With Democrats being in favorable position to convert North Carolina, other state races significantly come in to play: Sen. Susan Collins (R) is in another difficult campaign for re-election in Maine, former three-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is back for another attempt in Ohio, and with potentially strong developing Democratic challengers in Alaska and Texas, a GOP victory in Michigan becomes almost mandatory for Senate Republicans to maintain their majority status.

The Michigan Barnburner


By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Senate

A new Emerson College poll of the Michigan Senate race again suggests that we will see another photo finish in the 2026 campaign.

The latest EC poll (Jan. 24-25; 1,000 likely Michigan voters; 491 likely Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees a change in both the Democratic primary and the general election.

For the first time, Emerson projects state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) taking the lead over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed in the party primary. According to the Emerson ballot test result, Sen. McMorrow posts a 22-17-16 percent advantage over Rep. Stevens and Dr. El-Sayed.

This is the first poll that found someone other than Rep. Stevens holding the Democratic lead, though three of the other five polls released since early May have detected all three candidates polling under 30 percent support. Therefore, despite the projected change at the leader level, this race remains a tight, three-way toss-up.

The Michigan Senate seat is open because two-term incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) chose not to seek a third term. He likely would have been favored for re-election.

The general election polling is equally close. Likely Republican nominee Mike Rogers, the former Congressman who came within three-tenths of a percentage point of upsetting current Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) in the 2024 general election, will be a formidable November contender. He has led all three of the Democratic candidates at one time or another in early polling. Rogers slightly trails Rep. Stevens in most polls but leads Sen. McMorrow and Dr. El-Sayed in almost all isolated pairings.

In the latest Emerson poll, Rep. Stevens tops Rogers, 47-42 percent, and Sen. McMorrow would lead him 46-43 percent, while El-Sayed and Rogers are tied at 43 percent support.

It is interesting to see the general election sample finding Stevens further ahead of Rogers than McMorrow in the same poll where the Democratic segment favored the latter contender. This means that Rep. Stevens is attracting a better share of the non-affiliated vote than is Sen. McMorrow when paired individually with the Republican former Congressman.

Looking at the 2024 polling, we again see a Republican underpoll when compared to the final result. Such a pattern has been present in a number of states and was certainly the case in President Trump’s three elections.

In the Michigan ’24 Senate contest, 82 public polls were released after the August primary. In those, Rogers led in only three. While he didn’t win the race, he clearly performed better than projected.

Of the four organizations that tracked polling in the 2024 election, Real Clear Politics, the Five-Thirty-Eight data organization, which is no longer in existence, 270 to Win, and Decision Desk Headquarters, all found Slotkin leading by a larger margin than her actual victory percentage. Such was true regardless of whether all the post-primary polls were included or just those from late October to Election Day.

The Slotkin average lead ranged from a high of 4.1 to a low of 2.3 percentage points, remembering that her victory spread was just 0.3. In terms of raw numbers, Sen. Slotkin won the race by only 19,006 votes from more than 5.58 million ballots cast.

Therefore, if we surmise that a similar pattern might occur in 2026, then this race is likely to be decided by just a few votes irrespective of which Democrat wins the party nomination. The political climate at the time of the election notwithstanding, Rogers remains in prime position to record what many would still consider an upset victory.

Looking at the national Senate picture, the Michigan race must be rated as the Republicans’ best opportunity to convert a current Democratic seat, with Georgia (opposite Sen. Jon Ossoff), and New Hampshire (open seat) also in play.

For the Democrats, the best opportunity is in North Carolina where the consensus party candidate, former Gov. Roy Cooper, has won six statewide elections. He leads former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley in all polling, but North Carolina GOP candidates underpoll by a larger margin than in Michigan, and, for the first time in history Republicans exceed Democrats in registered party affiliation.

Democrats will also challenge Republican Senate seats in Maine (opposite Sen. Susan Collins), Alaska (against Sen. Dan Sullivan), and Ohio (challenging appointed Sen. Jon Husted). Their number one target, however, is North Carolina. In the others, right now the Republican incumbent should be considered at least a slight favorite.