Tag Archives: Sen. Bill Cassidy

Louisiana Sen. Cassidy Loses

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 18, 2026

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) loses challenge to hold US Senate seat.

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy suffered a decisive defeat in Saturday’s Republican primary, even failing to qualify for the runoff election.

Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start), with President Trump’s public support, finished first with a strong 44.8 percent of the vote against three opponents, falling just over five percentage points short of an outright victory. She will advance to the June 27 runoff against State Treasurer, physician, and former Congressman John Fleming, who outpaced Sen. Cassidy to secure second place. Dr. Fleming finished 3.5 percentage points ahead of the two‑term incumbent, a margin of nearly 14,000 votes.

Letlow carried 53 of Louisiana’s 64 parishes — and potentially 54 once all ballots are tallied. She trails Dr. Fleming by a single vote in Grant Parish. Including Grant, Dr. Fleming won eight parishes, all located within the 4th Congressional District that he represented for eight years. Sen. Cassidy managed to prevail in only three parishes, two in the New Orleans metro area and one in Baton Rouge.

The result marked another impressive primary victory for President Trump. He endorsed Rep. Letlow even before she became a Senate candidate. Sen. Cassidy had been Trump’s top Republican intra‑party target, as he is one of only two GOP Senators on the ballot this year — the other being Susan Collins from Maine — who voted for the 2021 impeachment just days before Trump left office after losing the 2020 election.

Clearly, Sen. Cassidy did not anticipate Trump’s return to the Presidency, which proved a grave political miscalculation. Of course, the Senator will remain in office to serve the final seven months of the current term.

Cassidy was first elected in 2014 and re‑elected in 2020, both under Louisiana’s jungle primary system, in which all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation. He defeated three‑term Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) in the 2014 runoff by a 56-44 percent margin. In 2020, he won re‑election outright in the jungle primary, earning 59.3 percent of the vote against 14 opponents, only one of whom was a Republican.

Many Louisiana political observers believe that unseating Sen. Cassidy was one factor motivating the legislature and Gov. Jeff Landry (R) to change the state’s nomination structure. Analysts have suggested that Cassidy would likely have performed better under the previous jungle primary system, where Democrats and Independents could also participate.

Instead of holding a November jungle primary concurrently with the general election followed by December runoffs for any race in which no candidate reached the 50 percent threshold, the legislature and Governor replaced the system with early closed partisan primaries for federal offices and select Louisiana state contests.

Ironically, because of the ongoing redistricting process, primaries for the US House races were not held on Saturday. Once a new 2026 congressional map is finalized, those campaigns will return to the traditional November/December schedule. As before, any candidate who secures a majority in the November vote will be elected outright.

For the Democrats, Saturday’s overwhelming first‑place finisher was farmer Jamie Davis, who captured 47.4 percent of the vote and topped his two opponents in all 64 parishes. It remains unclear whom he will face in the runoff, as the current second‑place candidate, businessman and Navy veteran Gary Crockett, leads non-profit organization executive Nicolas Albares by only 284 votes with several thousand ballots still uncounted.

In both parties, the first‑place finishers came close enough to the 50 percent mark that Rep. Letlow and Davis enter their respective June 27 runoff elections as virtual prohibitive favorites. Given Louisiana’s strong Republican lean, Rep. Letlow would then become the clear general‑election favorite once the runoffs conclude.

The Cassidy defeat brings the number of open US Senate races in the 2026 cycle to 11 – seven from the Republican side and four from the Democratic column. The next major Senate contest arrives on May 26 in Texas, where Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton are competing for the Republican nomination in what is expected to be a very close finish.

Louisiana Senate Primary Tomorrow

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 15, 2026

Primary

Voting in the hard-fought Louisiana Republican primary among Sen. Bill Cassidy, Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start), and State Treasurer John Fleming takes place tomorrow, and only two things appear certain. First, the race is headed to a runoff because none of the three candidates has majority support. Second, one contender will be eliminated, but polling has not definitively shown which one.

Ever since President Trump was re-elected, it became clear that he would seek to defeat Sen. Cassidy in Louisiana’s Republican nomination contest. Cassidy was one of two Republican Senators who voted to convict Trump in the 2021 impeachment trial, likely under the assumption that the outgoing president would never return to office.

True to form, Trump is now seeking political retribution. The only other Republican Senator on the 2026 ballot who voted to convict him in the impeachment trial is Maine’s Susan Collins. But because Republicans view her as their only chance of holding that seat, she has thus far avoided presidential opposition.

President Trump endorsed Rep. Letlow even before she officially entered the Senate race. The campaign’s true surprise, however, is State Treasurer and former Congressman Fleming’s strength. He has turned the Senate primary into a genuine three-way contest – a development few observers anticipated.

On the eve of the primary, it remains unclear which of the three candidates will be eliminated tomorrow, and it is entirely possible that Sen. Cassidy could even fail to qualify for the runoff election.

Four polls have been released since April 26 – from Emerson College, BDPC (a Louisiana polling firm), Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, and Quantus Insights. The two challengers have led in at least one of the recent surveys, while the incumbent has failed to place first.

The Emerson College poll (April 24-26; 455 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds a virtual two-way tie, with Sen. Cassidy trailing outside the survey’s margin of error. The ballot test shows Fleming leading Letlow, 28-27 percent, while Sen. Cassidy attracts only 21 percent support.

The BDPC poll (April 28-30; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) projects Letlow leading beyond the survey’s margin of error, with Sen. Cassidy and Dr. Fleming tied for second place but well behind. The ballot test favors Letlow, 33-21-21 percent.

The Fabrizio, Lee & Associates study (April 4-5; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; live interview and text) also finds Rep. Letlow leading, with Sen. Cassidy in second place and Dr. Fleming falling short of runoff qualification. The Fabrizio ballot test posts a 32-26-21 percent split.

The most recent survey, from Quantus Insights (May 6-7; 1,015 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; online), paints yet another distinctly different picture. Here, Rep. Letlow leads with 42 percent support, the strongest showing for any candidate in the recent polling, though still well below the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Thus, despite Letlow’s sizable advantage, the Quantus numbers still point toward a secondary election.

Dr. Fleming places second with 30 percent support in the Quantus result, while Sen. Cassidy trails badly at just 20 percent among Republican primary voters.

The cumulative results of these polls suggest that Rep. Letlow is likely to qualify for the second round, while it remains a toss-up whether Sen. Cassidy or Dr. Fleming will join her in the runoff. This is a rare situation in which, on the eve of a primary election, it is uncertain whether an incumbent will even advance to the runoff.

One area in which Sen. Cassidy leads is campaign resources. Through the April 26 pre-primary reporting period, he had raised $13.3 million and retained more than $5.5 million for the final stretch before the primary. By comparison, Dr. Fleming raised $11.2 million, including $9.6 million from individuals other than himself, while Rep. Letlow has raised just under $4.4 million.

Since the 2026 election has thus far proved to be turnout rather than persuasion driven, Sen. Cassidy using his financial advantage to deploy his vote base to the maximum degree will greatly improve his chances of securing a runoff position.

With inconsistent polling results over a prolonged period, virtually anything could happen tomorrow. The runoff election is scheduled for June 27.

Louisiana Suspends House Primaries

Louisiana Governor suspends US House elections (view interactive 2024 Louisiana Congressional Districts map on Dave’s Redistricting App).

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 1, 2026

House

A day after the US Supreme Court ruled Louisiana’s congressional map an unconstitutional gerrymander, Gov. Jeff Landry (R) issued an executive order affecting the state’s May 16 primary election.

With early voting set to begin tomorrow and the state’s congressional map declared illegal by the nation’s highest court on Wednesday, Gov. Landry moved quickly to suspend the House primaries. He said the nomination election will remain in abeyance to give legislators time to redraw and approve a new congressional map and identified July 15 as the target date for rescheduling the House contests.

All other races, including the US Senate primaries in both parties, will proceed as planned on May 16.

Democrats, and even some Republicans, criticized the decision, arguing that early voting ballots have already been distributed and that postponing only the US House primaries would create confusion and likely depress turnout.

One of the Republican critics, Sen. Bill Cassidy, who faces a difficult renomination fight under the new partisan primary system, warned that running two different nomination schedules will mislead voters. For that reason, he opposes allowing the Senate primary to proceed on May 16.

What is likely a more salient reason for Sen. Cassidy’s push to postpone the primary is a new Emerson College poll released yesterday. The survey (April 24–26; 500 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) shows Sen. Cassidy trailing both former state Treasurer John Fleming and Rep. Julia Letlow (R‑Start), whom President Trump has already endorsed.

The ballot test produced a 28-27-21 percent split, with Fleming narrowly leading Rep. Letlow, and Sen. Cassidy following. Clearly, the race is headed toward a runoff, and it is not even certain that Sen. Cassidy will qualify for the second round.

At the end of 2024, the Louisiana legislature and the Governor overhauled the state’s preliminary election system. The new law created a partisan primary in May of the election year, followed by a June runoff in any race where no candidate secures a majority. Once nominees are chosen, they advance to a November general election, as in all other states.

Previously, Louisiana used a jungle primary system in which all candidates, regardless of party, appeared on the same ballot. Any candidate who received more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round was elected outright. If no one reaches a majority, the top two finishers, again, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

In past years, Louisiana held its initial election concurrently with the national general election. If a runoff was required, the top candidates would meet again in an early December second round. For the state legislature and many statewide offices, including the governorship, that system remains in place. The new partisan primary structure applies only to federal offices and certain designated state positions.

The act of drawing a new congressional map will almost certainly guarantee Republicans at least one additional seat in the current 4R–2D Louisiana delegation. Some observers, most notably reporters at the liberal political blog The Down Ballot, have speculated that Republican legislators might even attempt to convert both Democratic seats. Whether such an effort will materialize remains uncertain.

In addition to Louisiana, other states may also undertake redistricting ahead of the 2026 election. Reports indicate that President Trump has urged Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) to eliminate the state’s lone Democratic‑held district; Georgia is also viewed as a potential candidate for a 2026 redraw.

Other states could be in the mix, as well. If such efforts move forward, they will almost certainly unfold on a very compressed timeline.

Cassidy Crushed in New Poll

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 6, 2026

Senate

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R)

A new American Pulse Research & Polling survey finds Louisiana GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy trending seriously downward in his fight for renomination.

According to the American Pulse data, Sen. Cassidy would be in danger of not even advancing to a runoff against Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) and State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming. In hypothetical runoff pairings, should Sen. Cassidy rebound, he would individually trail both Letlow and Fleming.

The American Pulse poll (March 20-24; 455 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) sees Rep. Letlow topping Fleming and Sen. Cassidy, 31-25-21 percent, respectively. In a potential runoff, Rep. Letlow would lead Fleming, 37-34 percent. With 29 percent of the respondents unsure about this race, such a contest would be rated as too close to call.

Paired with incumbent Cassidy, Rep. Letlow would defeat him by a whopping 30 points according to this respondent sample, 54-24 percent. Fleming fares almost as well against the Senator. In a Fleming-Cassidy runoff, the challenger would lead the incumbent, 49-29 percent.

With a sample size of only 455 individuals for a statewide survey, the error factor would be high because of the small universe. These results, however, are so lopsided that even a wide error margin would still send Cassidy packing particularly because he fares so poorly in a runoff against either opponent.

Sen. Cassidy is facing serious obstacles. Obviously, these polling numbers reveal that the Senator is not popular within the Louisiana conservative vote base. Secondly, his vote to impeach President Trump associated with the January 6th conflict at the Capitol obviously put him at odds with the chief executive, though it is likely that the Senator believed doing so would not cause him future political problems because he obviously believed that Trump would never return to the White House.

As a result, President Trump has already endorsed Rep. Letlow, doing so even before she became an official Senate candidate.

Perhaps Sen. Cassidy’s most serious problem, however, is Louisiana’s new nomination structure for federal offices. Since the 1970s, Louisiana has featured a jungle qualification format for all offices. All candidates are placed on the same ballot in an election concurrent with the regular general election. If a candidate records majority support in the first vote, the individual is elected. If not, the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation advanced to a post-general election runoff.

Under the new Louisiana primary system effective with the 2026 election, registered party members may only vote in their own party primary. If a person is registered as a “No Party” voter, the individual may choose a primary ballot at the polling place. Once selected, the “No Party” voter can then only participate in an associated runoff of the party in which he or she chose for the regular primary election.

In the jungle system, and particularly because the Democrats are currently very weak in Louisiana, Sen. Cassidy was able to attract a segment of their votes. This made him stronger in seeking re-election. In 2026, Democrats will not be allowed to crossover into the Republican primary, just as Republicans will not be allowed to vote in any 2026 Democratic primary.

Therefore, the new partisan primary system gives the Cassidy challengers a boost because endorsements, such as the one from President Trump, will carry more weight within the conservative Republican vote base without any adverse boomerang effect coming from crossover Democrats.

Added together, these obstacles spell trouble for Sen. Cassidy’s re-election chances as the current polls reflect.

The small sample American Pulse survey may not be completely indicative of where the entire Louisiana Republican electorate stands, but the Senator has fared poorly in other statewide polls, as well.

Looking at the last six publicly released Republican primary studies since Feb. 24, Sen. Cassidy has averaged only 26.7 percent support in the surveys testing a three-way contest among the Senator, Rep. Letlow, and Fleming.

As we head toward a May 16 Louisiana Republican primary election and a potential June 27 GOP runoff, Sen. Cassidy today looks to be the Senate incumbent most likely to fail to qualify for the general election.

Three Now Battling for
Louisiana Senate Seat

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 19

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) faces challengers to hold his US Senate seat.

It has been known for some time that Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) was going to face real competition in his fight for renomination this year, but a legitimate three-way race scenario was not often speculated upon.

A series of late February surveys and the most recent Cassidy campaign poll confirm that State Treasurer and former Congressman and ex-White House Deputy Chief of Staff John Fleming is a viable Republican Senate candidate. This, even though President Trump has endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) against Sen. Cassidy.

The two-term incumbent is not a Trump favorite because he is one of two GOP Senators on the ballot in 2026 – Maine’s Susan Collins is the other – who voted to impeach President Trump in early 2021 over the January 6 Capitol conflict.

Public Opinion Strategies, surveying for the Cassidy campaign (March 7-10; 500 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; live interview), sees the Senator holding a 35-24-21 percent advantage over Rep. Letlow and Fleming. Testing a Cassidy-Letlow runoff, the incumbent would hold only a 45-43 percent edge. The Cassidy-Fleming runoff possibility was not tested, but it would not be surprising to see a similar preference division.

The February polls, however, show a stronger Fleming standing. The BDPC survey research organization, a bipartisan Louisiana firm, tested the Republican Senate race during the Feb. 21-23 period (600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) and found a closer ballot test result, 28-21-21 percent with Sen. Cassidy leading and Letlow and Fleming tied. According to this survey, Fleming would lead both Cassidy (43-32 percent) and Letlow (36-27 percent) in runoff scenarios.

Quantas Insights and JMC Analytics & Polling also project a three-way race in their February polling.

Quantas (Feb 23-24; 1,428 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; online) saw a 34-25-20 percent split with Fleming leading, Rep. Letlow second, and the Senator dropping to third. A Fleming-Letlow runoff was tested and broke 42-32 percent in Fleming’s favor.

JMC Analytics, another regular Louisiana pollster (2/14-16; 645 Louisiana likely Republican primary voters; live interview), found a virtual three-way tie with Mr. Fleming holding a slight 26-25-22 percent lead over Rep. Letlow and Sen. Cassidy.

The renomination road for Sen. Cassidy is more difficult than in his first two elections. The state has moved away from its jungle primary system that featured all candidates on the same ballot in a vote scheduled concurrently with the general election. If a contender received majority support, the individual was elected outright in the one election. If no one attained the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, would advance to an early December runoff election.

In 2024, the legislature and Governor changed the law for federal and some state offices, concluding that their freshmen federal officials were at an organizational disadvantage in Congress because some of their members were joining the body a month after all others. Therefore, the legislative leaders and Gov. Jeff Landry (R) believed that the state was penalizing itself in terms of key committee assignments and in some leadership elections. This, even though the Speaker and Majority Leader both hail from Louisiana.

A reason less talked about for the change is the Senate race. Clearly, the legislators were aware that returning to a partisan primary/runoff system would make re-election much more difficult for Sen. Cassidy, who is viewed as less conservative than the typical Louisiana Republican legislator and primary voter.

Therefore, under the new nomination system, we see a closed primary (voters must be registered party members) scheduled for Saturday, May 16 with a runoff if no one receives majority support calendared for June 27.

Sen. Cassidy is certainly prepared for a tough challenge. He reported over $10.1 million cash-on-hand (COH) at the end of 2025, which is a 4:1 COH advantage over Rep. Letlow, and 5:1 opposite Fleming.

Considering the Trump endorsement for Rep. Letlow and the GOP/MAGA base expressing anti-Cassidy sentiments, the Senator will need every bit of his financial advantage to fight his way through to renomination.

Louisiana’s Cassidy Strikes Back

By Jim Ellis — Friday, January 30, 2026

Senate

Already, the Louisiana Senate Republican primary is taking shape, and we are witnessing a highly competitive and largely negative race beginning to unfold.

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R)

Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) attracted a great deal of political attention last week as she announced her Republican primary challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy along with an endorsement from President Trump. Now, the Senator is seizing the offensive.

The Cassidy campaign just released the results of a Public Opinion Strategies poll (Jan. 20-22; sample size not publicized) that largely outlines what promises to be the Cassidy campaign’s line of attack against Rep. Letlow.

According to the POS survey, Sen. Cassidy leads Rep. Letlow and state Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming, 32-21-16 percent. State Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia) and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta trail the group with nine and one percent support levels.

Another recently released survey, this from JMC Analytics & Polling for the Fleming campaign (Jan. 12-14; 650 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) finds an entirely different ballot test result. This data projects Fleming with a 23-22 percent edge over Sen. Cassidy. The remaining candidates split an aggregate 16 percent of the preference responses. The JMC poll was conducted before Rep. Letlow entered the race; hence, she was not included.

Under the Cassidy POS poll’s “informed ballot” result, meaning a series of messages about the poll sponsor’s opponent(s) that are usually negative, the Cassidy lead increases to 55-13-13 percent over Rep. Letlow and Treasurer Fleming. When the push questions isolate Rep. Letlow, the one-on-one “informed” ballot test moves to a whopping 69-22 percent in Cassidy’s favor.

While the query verbiage was not included in the poll analysis, the summary indicates that Rep. Letlow’s stock transactions will be at the forefront of the attack against her, and it is probable the information is at least somewhat sensationalized.

In the poll analysis, the text claims that Rep. Letlow has “over 200 violations of the Stock Act.” When reading the supporting story from the NOTUS (News of the United States) website, we see that the violations were for the late reporting of a group of 210 stock transactions on her financial disclosure report. The combined value of the transactions is reported in the range of $225,000 to $3.3 million. The disclosure report does not delineate further, but the campaign inference will be that she hid millions of dollars in stock transactions.

It appears that the Cassidy campaign is also targeting Letlow as a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only), claiming that her voting record is to the left of the Senator’s. Another attack, as also outlined in the poll analysis, is her taking a trip to Qatar “funded by a pro-Doha group.”

The most serious early campaign obstacle for Rep. Letlow and the other candidates is overcoming Sen. Cassidy’s large war chest. Again, according to the Cassidy polling analysis, the Senator’s campaign reports having $26 million in the bank, the year-end Federal Election Commission filing to be released early next month.

According to Rep. Letlow’s Sept. 30 campaign filing, she held just under $2.3 million in her account, but her total will likely be larger when the latest disclosure reports are made public. For his part, Fleming posted slightly over $2 million.

As previously reported, Louisiana has a new nominating system. Instead of a jungle primary held concurrently with the general election, Louisiana nominations for federal and certain state offices will revert to a traditional partisan primary and runoff procedure. If no candidate receives majority support in the first vote on May 16, the top two finishers advance to a June 27 runoff election.

In addition to Sen. Cassidy, Rep. Letlow, Treasurer Fleming, and Sen. Miguez, seven more Republicans have entered the race. The candidate filing deadline is Feb. 13, so it remains to be seen just how many of these individuals actually follow through and complete their final statement of candidacy. State Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro) had also announced her candidacy but withdrew after Rep. Letlow entered the race.

The Louisiana and Texas Republican primaries feature the party’s two incumbent Senators, Cassidy and John Cornyn, who are in danger of losing their renomination efforts. Both the Texas primary on March 3 and Louisiana in May will be closely watched until the vote count is complete. Expect both the Texas and Louisiana campaigns to run at a frenetic pace throughout the remainder of the primary calendar.

Rep. Letlow to Challenge Sen. Cassidy

By Jim Ellis — Friday, January 23, 2026

Senate

Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow

Three-term Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) has joined the group challenging GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy. The Senator confirmed he received a message from Rep. Letlow saying that she will oppose him in this year’s Republican primary and then subsequently publicly declared her intentions. Reports are also surfacing that President Trump has endorsed her candidacy.

The move is a bit of a surprise since a reported understanding existed between Rep. Letlow and state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), chair of Louisiana’s House Ways and Means Committee, that the two would not oppose each other in the Senate challenge. Rep. Emerson announced her candidacy in late October.

It has long been presumed that President Trump would be active in this race since Sen. Cassidy is one of just two Republican Senators on the 2026 ballot to have voted for impeachment over the Jan. 6 controversy at the Capitol. Recently, Trump has been more conciliatory toward the Senator, but it is still clear that he would prefer a different Republican join Sen. John Kennedy (R) in representing Louisiana.

Clearly, the Bayou State race will be one of the premier GOP primary contests. Aside from Rep. Letlow and state Rep. Emerson, 10 others — including State Treasurer and former Congressman and ex-Deputy White House Chief of Staff in the first Trump Administration John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia), Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, and St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden — are all in the nomination race against Sen. Cassidy.

Typically, such a large field would generally help an incumbent because the anti-incumbent votes would be split among so many contenders. In Louisiana, however, the political dynamics have changed. At the end of 2024, the legislature and Governor reinstituted the partisan primary and runoff system to replace the jungle primary structure the state had used since the late 1970s.

Now, such a crowded field likely ensures that the initial vote ends with no candidate receiving majority support, thus forcing the top two finishers to a secondary runoff election.

Originally, the new primary election was scheduled for April 18 but because the US Supreme Court has yet to render a decision on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, the state has postponed the first vote to May 16 and the runoff, if necessary, to June 27.

The candidate filing deadline for major party candidates is Feb. 13, so it remains to be seen just how many of the dozen candidates follow through with the filing process. It is a good bet that the field will narrow once the filing deadline arrives.

Rep. Letlow was elected to the US House in a 2021 special election after her husband, Luke Letlow, won the 2020 election. Unfortunately, he would die of COVID before he was able to take office. After winning the initial special election, Rep. Letlow was easily re-elected in 2022 and 2024, averaging 65.2 percent of the vote.

With Letlow leaving the House, it means there are 54 open seats with three vacancies moving toward special elections. She is the 29th Republican not to seek re-election and 14th retiring House member to enter a 2026 US Senate race.

The battle for her 5th District House seat becomes interesting in that the district could significantly change depending upon SCOTUS’s ruling on the Louisiana redistricting case. Therefore, who might run to succeed Rep. Letlow won’t be completely settled until the high court justices make their decision and district boundaries are set.

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) scheduled the special election to replace the late US Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) concurrently with the state’s June 2 regular primary. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two will run off on Aug. 4. At this point, state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R) is the only announced candidate.

Surprisingly, the special election will occur in the current 1st District and not the new 1st that voters adopted in the November special election. Republicans will hold the seat in the special election, but Democrats will likely convert it in November under the new lines that clearly favor their party.

The other two special elections, TX-18 and NJ-11, are scheduled for Jan. 31 and Feb. 5, respectively. The Texas seat is in the final runoff stage while the New Jersey district will host partisan primaries in early February and fill the seat in a special general election on April 16. Democrats are expected to win both of the latter elections.

Sen. Cassidy Draws New Opponent

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 19, 2025

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)

In an attempt to deny Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) renomination, Louisiana state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia) announced early this week that he will enter the 2026 Republican Senate primary. Already in the race is State Treasurer John Fleming, along with four minor GOP candidates.

Cassidy is one of the seven Republican Senators (just three remain in office) who voted to impeach President Trump in post-election 2020; therefore, Cassidy earning an endorsement from Trump seems unlikely. Trump’s public support in Republican primaries has, for the most part, been extremely helpful to the anointed candidate.

Hence, Sen. Cassidy faces some obstacles toward his 2026 re-election bid. In addition to his problems with the President and facing credible opponents, he also must navigate an entirely new election system.

In 2024, Gov. Jeff Landry (R) and the state legislature changed Louisiana election law. For federal races, the jungle primary system is eschewed, and a partisan structure reimposed. The new primary schedule means that Sen. Cassidy, and all other federal incumbents, must stand for renomination on April 18, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled for May 30 if no candidate secures majority support on the first vote.

In Louisiana’s previous system, and one that still holds for most state races, all candidates are placed on the same ballot for an election scheduled in November. If a leading candidate fails to receive majority support, the top two finishers advance into a December runoff.

The argument for adopting the new law for federal elections was accentuated with change proponents saying that the Louisiana freshmen US House members forced into December runoffs were put in an adverse position that hurt the state. They pointed out their new members were getting lesser committee assignments and behind in other internal House matters because the entire body was elected a full month earlier.

According to Louisiana’s Advocate news site, Sen. Cassidy was actively opposing the new election law even after adoption. He was lobbying the legislature this year to eliminate the law’s runoff provision in order to allow plurality victories. The current session ended without the legislature making such a change.

Incumbents forced into runoff elections generally fare poorly because a majority of primary voters have already chosen a different candidate. Such is likely the principal reason Sen. Cassidy was attempting to convince the legislature to change the new law.

John Fleming, a physician, was elected State Treasurer in 2023. He previously served four terms in the US House, succeeding former House Ways and Means Committee chairman Jim McCrery in the 4th Congressional District and immediately preceding now-Speaker Mike Johnson. Rep. Fleming ran for US Senate in 2016, losing the Republican nomination to now-Sen. John Kennedy (R).

Upon leaving the House, Dr. Fleming was appointed by President Trump as Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development, and later Deputy White House Chief of Staff. In the House, Dr. Fleming was an original co-founder of the House Freedom Council.

In the initial Federal Election Commission campaign finance disclosure report for the 1st Quarter of 2025, Dr. Fleming self-funded his campaign with a $2.03 million cash influx but raised only $269,479 from other sources. It remains to be seen how well he does in the 2nd Quarter, which will end on June 30.

Blake Miguez was first elected to the state House of Representatives in a 2015 special election. He secured full terms later in 2015 and 2019 before winning a state Senate seat in 2023. During his tenure in the House, Miguez was elected Majority Leader in 2020. Professionally, he is an oil and gas company executive and has won national handgun shooting contests.

We can expect a primary campaign to be dominated with attacks against Cassidy arguing that he is a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only) because he voted to impeach Trump and for his votes, stances, and public statements on certain other issues.

With at least two major candidates making similar arguments against the Senator, the possibility grows that he will be forced into a runoff. If so, Cassidy’s chances of winning renomination would become diminished.

The Louisiana Senate primary will be a race to watch early next year because Sen. Cassidy’s renomination appears far from certain. We have yet to see any major action on the Democratic side, but it is certain the party will file a credible nominee.

Sen. Cassidy Considers No Labels Party; Newsom Clarifies Potential Appointment; Another Challenger to Sen. Cruz Emerges; NM-3, NY-4 News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 13, 2023

President

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)

No Labels Party: Sen. Cassidy Says He’ll Talk — From Sunday’s NBC interview, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) admitted that he would “talk” to the No Labels Party leaders if they approached him about becoming their presidential nominee. Sen. Cassidy also explained it would depend upon who the major parties nominate, but he intimated if we are going to see a Biden-Trump re-match he would be more inclined to run as a third-party candidate.

Sen. Cassidy is the type of candidate the No Labels Party would like to recruit. It is clear their main goal is to deny former President Donald Trump re-election, so they will be looking for a candidate who has some ability to attract suburban Republican voters away from Trump. The No Labels Party will decide who to nominate, if anyone, at their national conclave scheduled for April 14-15, 2024.

Senate

California: Gov. Newsom Clarifies Potential Appointment — Some Democrats are still urging Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), who is suffering from failing health, to resign her seat so that Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) can appoint a more able individual. Gov. Newsom now says that he will only appoint someone who will serve as a caretaker if the vacancy were to occur.

The governor said it would be unfair to give an advantage to any of the candidates currently running for the Senate if he were to appoint one of the contenders. Early rumors suggested he was leaning towards appointing US congresswoman and 2024 Senate candidate Barbara Lee (D-Oakland). She hails from Newsom’s northern California political base, but his latest statement suggests he would now go in a different direction.

Texas: Another Cruz Challenger Emerges — Back in May when Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) announced his Senate campaign it looked as if the Democratic leadership had the candidate they wanted to challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R). Two months later, state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio) announced his candidacy, and then resigned Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez followed. Another candidate has now joined them — Dallas state Rep. Carl Sherman Sr. (D), a former local mayor and pastor.

While Rep. Allred still may top what is now becoming a crowded field, he will undoubtedly be forced to drain his campaign treasury just to win the nomination; he had raised over $6 million before the June 30 campaign finance quarterly report. Sen. Cruz will then be able to build an uncontested campaign treasury, and force all four Democratic candidates far to the left on key issues such as the Biden energy policy and the Texas-Mexico border.

House

NM-3: Ex-State Rep to Challenge Rep. Leger Fernandez — Former state Rep. Sharon Clahchischilliage (R), a member of the Navajo Nation who served three terms in the legislature before being defeated for re-election in 2018, announced that she will challenge two-term Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-Santa Fe) next year. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates New Mexico’s 3rd District as D+5, meaning we could see a competitive general election develop. In 2022, Rep. Leger Fernandez was re-elected with 58 percent of the vote, but against a Republican candidate who spent only $301,000 on her campaign.

NY-4: Democrat Withdraws — Sarah Hughes (D), who was a member of the 2002 US Olympic figure skating team and had formed a congressional exploratory committee earlier in the year to challenge Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), announced Monday that she will not pursue her candidacy. The top Democrats appear to be state Sen. Kevin Thomas (D-Nassau) and ex-Hempstead town supervisor and 2022 nominee Laura Gillen (D). In the face of such competition, Hughes’ chances of winning the Democratic primary were poor; hence, the decision to end her political quest.

New York’s 4th District, at D+10 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, is likely to become the Democrats’ top conversion opportunity in the country.

2024 Presidential Polls Already Emerging; CNN Exit Polling Numbers; Senate Election Turnout Stats; Sen. Kennedy Planning to Run for Gov?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 16, 2022

President

Former President Donald Trump; Florida Gov. Ron Desantis (R)

New Polling: Already Testing for 2024 — The House of Representatives isn’t even decided yet, and already we see a series of polls testing newly re-elected Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) pitted against former President Donald Trump. The WPA Intelligence polling series finds the Florida governor opening up big Republican primary leads against Trump in several important nomination states: Iowa (+11), New Hampshire (+15), Texas (+11), Georgia (+20), and of course, Florida (+20). Count on presidential fever going non-stop for the next two years.

Voting

Exit Polling: CNN Releases Results — Though exit polling has not proven particularly accurate in past elections, looking at the results of the organization’s data still has value. A quick glance at the CNN data brings forth a couple of key observations. First, the Independent vote, which polling suggested through most of the election cycle was moving toward the Republicans, came back to the Democrats at election time. Self-described moderates were breaking Democratic, 56-41 percent. Those describing themselves as Independents voted Democratic in a 49-47 percent split. Within the cell segment, Independent women moved toward the Democrats in a 54-42 percent clip.

On the other end of the spectrum, Republicans actually were making their marks with minority voters, at least according to this data. Republicans were able to attract 39 percent of the Hispanic vote, 40 percent among Asians, and 13 percent with black voters. All of these numbers are an improvement from immediate past elections.

Additionally, while all men break toward the Republicans 56-42 percent, all women prefer the Democrats, 53-45 percent. Still, CNN measures that the national vote went Republican in a 51.3 – 46.7 percent swing even though Democrats held the Senate majority and it appears House control will come down to a minimum number of seats.

Senate

Senate States: Key Turnout Stats — Now that we are seeing closer to final turnout numbers in many places, we have derived some interesting participation statistics from the most competitive US Senate states.

In Georgia, the turnout may fall just short of the 4.0 million voters who cast ballots in 2018. The Nevada turnout, projected to just exceed the 1 million mark, will be an approximate four percent increase over 2018. In Wisconsin, once the final turnout report is released will likely show the same relative participation rate as recorded in 2018.

The Pennsylvania turnout looks to be up five percent from 2018. Florida, where Sen. Marco Rubio won an impressive 58-41 percent victory over US Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando), who was clearly one of the strongest Democratic candidates in the nation, looks to be six percent under 2018’s total. In Iowa and Ohio, where Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) won an eighth term and Republican J.D. Vance held the open seat over US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown), turnout appears to be down just under nine percent when compared to the 2018 participation rate in both states.

Governor

Louisiana: Sen. Kennedy Releases Poll — Armed with a fresh six years in the Senate with his 62 percent re-election vote against nine opponents, Sen. John Kennedy (R) is now admitting he is considering a run for governor next year when incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term. He then released a Torchlight Strategies poll (Nov. 9-12; 800 likely 2023 Louisiana jungle primary voters; live interview & text) that posted him to a 22-18-13-7-6 percent lead over state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D), attorney general and former Congressman Jeff Landry (R), Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser (R), and fellow US Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), respectively.