Buttigieg Says No to Senate Run

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Senate

Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) opting not to seek a third term has left the 2026 Michigan Senate race in a highly competitive open political mode. As we learned at the end of last week, however, one person who will not participate is former US Transportation Secretary and ex-presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg (D).

The former national cabinet official and ex-South Bend, Indiana Mayor publicly announced that he will not enter the Wolverine State Senate race despite leading in published polls. The one early released Democratic primary poll (Blueprint Polling; Jan. 30-Feb. 2; 536 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters; SMS text) found Buttigieg ahead of Attorney General Dana Nessel 40-16 percent but doing poorly within the important Black community in Detroit.

Rather, “Mayor Pete,” as he is often called, is apparently looking to follow the presidential winds, and his Michigan decision strongly suggests that he will be organizing another presidential campaign for the open 2028 national campaign when President Donald Trump will be ineligible to seek re-election.

Without Buttigieg in the Senate race, AG Nessel, who is ineligible to seek a third term for her current position, is a presumed top-tier potential candidate likely to be among those attempting to fill the Senate void. Congresswoman Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) is also reportedly making moves to organize a Senate campaign as is state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak). Nessel’s weak poll showing against Buttigieg suggests that she is anything but a lock for her party’s nomination.

Several other names are being floated as potential Michigan Senate candidates including Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers who came within 19,006 votes of winning the state’s other Senate race last November. He lost to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) by three-tenths of one percentage point from over 5.77 million cast ballots.

Rogers, who is expected to run again, may have an impending GOP primary fight against a woman who lost the most recent Governor’s race by 10 percentage points, former steel company executive, national political commentator, and 2022 Michigan Republican gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon.

While Rogers moves to the right in hiring Trump co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita as one of his key consultants, a new Fabrizio Lee & Associates poll (Feb. 17-19; 600 likely Michigan Republican primary voters; live interview & text) suggests the former Congressman may not be the prohibitive favorite for the next GOP Senate nomination despite his impressive performance in the 2024 election.

The Fabrizio ballot test finds him trailing Dixon 40-36 percent in a hypothetical 2026 Republican primary poll. Among those saying their vote would be definite, the two are virtually tied with 22 percent saying they would definitely support Dixon and 21 percent indicating the same about Rogers.

Dixon, however, has been more closely tied to the open Governor’s race since incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. If she returns to again enter the state chief executive’s office campaign Dixon will likely face an equally difficult Republican nomination run against Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills).

In 2018, James, as a first-time candidate, held veteran Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) to just over 52 percent of the vote. Two years later, he came within less than two percentage points of unseating Sen. Peters. Now, Rep. James, who won his congressional seat in 2022 and was re-elected in November, looks to be preparing a run for the 2026 open Governor’s contest.

It is already clear that we will see many more twists and turns in the Michigan statewide races before reaching the August 2026 primary election. It is already clear, however, even in this early going, that Michigan, featuring both an open Senate and open Governor’s race for the first time in the modern political era, will be one of the top political states to follow in the coming months.