Tag Archives: Rep. Adam Schiff

Pre-Christmas Poll Favors Schiff & Garvey; Potential New Utah Senate Candidate; Fong Reinstated in California Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 4, 2024

Senate

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) / Former baseball great Steve Garvey (R)

California: Pre-Christmas Poll Favors Schiff & Garvey — A new survey, this one from Politico/Morning Consult (Dec. 15-19; 858 likely California jungle primary voters; online with leaners), finds US Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) posting his largest polling lead over the large multi-party candidate field and is the second to show retired baseball great Steve Garvey (R) claiming second position.

The Morning Consult data records Rep. Schiff at 28 percent and Garvey following with 19 percent. If this trend were to continue, Schiff and Garvey would advance into the post-March 5 general election. US Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) trail with 17 and 14 percent, respectively. If this poll were the final vote, both Reps. Porter and Lee would be eliminated from further competition.

Utah: Rep. Curtis Poised to Enter Senate Race — Utah political reports are suggesting that four-term US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) will imminently join the open US Senate race with the hope of succeeding retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R). Originally saying he would not run for the Senate, the congressman is apparently on the brink of changing his mind as he sees the candidate field develop.

With several key Republicans such as Gov. Spencer Cox declining to run for the federal post, and no other GOP House member entering to date, Curtis now believes he would have a strong chance of winning the party primary. Looking at the field, the strongest contender appears to be former state House Speaker Brad Wilson. Utah’s candidate filing period expires on Jan. 8, so decisions will now be made quickly.

Should Rep. Curtis run for the Senate, he will likely petition onto the ballot. When he won his special congressional election in 2017, he was not the choice of the local Republican nominating convention but did win the special primary election. Prior to serving in Congress, Rep. Curtis was twice elected as Provo’s mayor.

House

CA-20: Fong Reinstated to Cong Ballot — Reversing the California Secretary of State’s ruling, a California Superior Court judge ruled that state Assemblyman Vincent Fong (R-Bakersfield) can run for the open 20th Congressional District seat that Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) has vacated. Because Fong had filed and been qualified as a candidate for re-election to the assembly, the secretary of state ruled that he could not enter the regular congressional election campaign after McCarthy announced his intention to retire. Fong challenged the administrative ruling and will now become a congressional candidate.

Also in the regular jungle primary are Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux, five other Republicans, two Democrats, and two Independents. CA-20, carrying a R+31 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization, is the safest Republican seat in California. A special election to fill the balance of the current term should be called now that McCarthy has officially left office.

Garvey Moves Into Second in Calif.; LaRose Widening Lead in Ohio; Decision Looming for Arizona Sheriff; No Rematch in RI-2

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2023

Senate

Steve Garvey, former LA Dodgers great

California: Garvey Moves Into Second in New Poll — Survey USA went into the field to test the California electorate in anticipation of the state’s open US Senate primary on Super Tuesday, March 5. As you may remember, California uses an all-party top two primary system that serves as a qualifying election for the November vote. The top two finishers on March 5, regardless of political party affiliation or percentage attained, will advance to the general election. All other candidates will be eliminated from further competition.

This means that at least one Democratic US House member will not advance. The huge field of 53 individuals who filed with California’s secretary of state will be winnowed down (the California SoS is targeting Dec. 28 as the date to have an official list of qualified candidates in all elections) but will still feature a very large ballot.

Three of the contenders who are sure to qualify as Senate candidates are US Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank). Each is attempting to qualify for the general election but at least one will fail. Because the bulk of votes will likely split among these three — relatively evenly, as polling suggests — it is conceivable that a well-known Republican such as baseball great Steve Garvey (R), could capture the second qualifying position in coalescing the minority Republican vote, thus eliminating two of the three House members.

The Survey USA poll (Dec. 7-10; 676 registered California voters; 590 likely voters; online) sees Rep. Schiff leading the large ballot, as he has in most other polls, with 22 percent. S-USA detects the scenario described above in that Garvey is second with 15 percent. Reps. Porter and Lee follow with 12 percent apiece. Democrats will be heavy favorites to hold the open seat that appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) is leaving after replacing the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), but Garvey sneaking into second place from the jungle primary now appears as a distinct possibility.

Ohio: New Survey Finds LaRose Opening GOP Lead — Survey USA released their latest Ohio US Senate poll (released Dec. 18; no methodology available) and finds a much different result than other recent polls. The last two studies released earlier in the month, from McLaughlin & Associates and Fabrizio Lee & Associates, found businessman Bernie Moreno posting very small (one to two points) Republican primary leads over Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls).

The S-USA data sees a wholly different result. Here, Secretary LaRose maintains a large 33-18-12 percent advantage over Sen. Dolan and Moreno. We will need more data to gain a better picture of this primary race as the candidates move through January and February to the nomination election on March 19. The Ohio primary is plurality based, meaning the candidate with the most votes, regardless of percentage attained, will win the nomination in this one election. The eventual nominee will then challenge three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in one of the most important Senate general elections in the 2024 voting cycle.

House

AZ-2: Recruiting Primary Opponent for Rep. Crane — Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (R) confirms that he is being recruited by unnamed sources to leave the Senate race and turn his political effort toward challenging 2nd District US Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley/ Flagstaff) in next year’s GOP primary. Crane was one of the eight Republican members who voted to oust then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

While Sheriff Lamb may be rejecting such overtures now, candidate filing for the Aug. 6 primary does not end until April 8, so much time remains for him to reverse course. It is probable that Lamb will continue to see the Senate nomination rapidly slipping away. If so, challenging Rep. Crane may eventually prove to be the sheriff’s better political move.

RI-2: No Re-Match — As reported in the Cook Political Report and by the Daily Kos Elections site and as noted in our post yesterday, former Cranston mayor and ex-gubernatorial nominee Allan Fung (R), who held freshman Rhode Island Rep. Ira Magaziner (D-Cranston) to a 50-46 percent win in a 2nd District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+17, will not return to run again in 2024.

Fung is clearly the Republicans’ best possible candidate, so this seat will not be considered a GOP conversion target in 2024 despite the closeness of the most recent campaign. Polling had indicated Fung was in position to score a major upset in 2022 but fell short when the votes were actually counted.

Schiff Leads in Two Polls; Democrats Nominate Ex-Rep. Suozzi; Manning Won’t Seek Re-Election; Competitive North Carolina Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 11, 2023

Senate

California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)

California: Schiff Leads in Two Polls — A pair of mid-November polls were released of the California Senate race, and both find Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) leading the pack of open-seat candidates, but by a small margin. If these two polls prove accurate, both Schiff and Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) would advance into a double-Democratic general election to be decided in November. Former baseball great Steve Garvey is a close third and still could be in position to claim second place in the March 5 all-party jungle primary if he could unite the Republican vote.

Emerson College (Nov. 11-14; 1,000 likely California primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts Schiff to a 16-13-10-9 percent advantage over Porter, Garvey, and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), respectively. The University of California at Berkeley through the Public Policy Institute of California (Nov. 9-16; 1,113 likely California voters; online) conducted an extensive survey that included a ballot test question about the US Senate race. Their results, similar to those Emerson produced, projects Rep. Schiff leading the field by a larger 21-16-10-8 percent spread over Porter, Garvey, and Lee.

House

NY-3: Democrats Nominate Ex-Rep. Suozzi — Though the timing took a bit longer than expected, the Nassau County Democratic Party chairman announced late last week that former US Rep. Tom Suozzi will be the special election nominee to replace expelled Rep. George Santos (R). Republicans are expected to name their candidate early this week.

While the prevailing wisdom is that Suozzi is a lock to convert the seat for the Democrats, an Opinion Diagnostics survey suggests the race may be closer than one might expect. The survey, conducted for financial executive Kellen Curry’s (R) campaign (Nov. 30; 900 NY-3 registered voters; text & online) found Suozzi scoring only between 43.3 and 44.9 percent against three potential Republican special election nominees. The three Republicans record percentages between 38.0 and 39.9 percent, thus signaling a potentially competitive special election campaign. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) called the election for Feb. 13.

NC-6: Rep. Manning Won’t Seek Re-Election — Two-term North Carolina US Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) announced late last week that she will not file for re-election. Saying, “I would love nothing more than to continue representing our community in Congress. Unfortunately, the egregiously gerrymandered maps do not make this race competitive, and I cannot in good conscience ask people to invest their time, resources and efforts in a campaign that is rigged against us. However, if the impending lawsuits are successful and the general assembly is forced to draw fair congressional districts, I will seek to continue my service to our community.”

The new 6th District would have voted for former President Donald Trump in a 57-41 percent count. Under the Democratic court map, the 6th supported President Joe Biden with a 56-43 percent margin. North Carolina redistricting had gone back and forth for a decade between the Republican legislature and the Democratic state Supreme Court. With the Republicans winning the court races in 2022, the court and legislature now approach redistricting legislation from largely the same viewpoint.

Rep. Manning’s retirement means 36 seats are now open for the next election. A total of 22 of the open seats are currently Democratic held, 13 come from the Republican column, and one new seat has been created under the new Alabama court-drawn redistricting plan.

Governor

North Carolina: Lt. Gov. Robinson Still in Front — The open North Carolina governor’s post will feature one of the most competitive such campaigns in the nation. The likely party nominees are Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and Attorney General Josh Stein (D). Early polling has given Robinson a slight lead, and the new East Carolina University survey (Nov. 29-Dec. 1; 915 North Carolina registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) draws a similar conclusion. The new numbers find Robinson posting a 44-40 percent general election lead over AG Stein.

Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Robinson is completing his first term as lieutenant governor, while Stein will be serving his eighth year as attorney general. Stein’s most recent victory was a razor-thin 50.1 – 49.9 percent in 2020 and further suggests that he begins this gubernatorial race in an underdog position.

Porter Edges Schiff, Garvey Alive; Republican Candidate in AL-2; Election Day Notes

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2023

Senate

California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)

Cal Berkeley Poll: Porter Edges Schiff, Garvey Alive — The University of California at Berkeley’s Institute for Governmental Studies (IGS) released their latest Golden State survey (Oct. 24-30; 6,342 registered California voters; 4,506 likely March 5th California primary voters; online) finds US Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) eclipsing US Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) by a scant 17-16 percent plurality within the large all-party field. While the 17 percent support number represents no gain for Porter when compared to the IGS August study, it does show Schiff losing four percentage points within the same time period. Among self-identified Democratic respondents, the two are tied at 26 percent apiece.

Former professional baseball star Steve Garvey (R), has increased his position now that he is an announced candidate. He finished third in the IGS poll with 10 percent support. The race is close enough that if Garvey can coalesce the GOP support around his candidacy (a total of 21 percent chose a Republican candidate), he could secure a general election ballot position. Among Republican respondents, Garvey receives 27 percent support as compared to 13 and 12 percent for candidates James Bradley and Eric Early.

The Golden State, like Louisiana and Washington, employs an all-party jungle primary system. In California, all candidates are placed on the March 5 ballot and the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation or primary percentage attained, qualify for the general election. Democrats are favored to hold the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D) seat that appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) now holds, but whether a Republican qualifies for the general election or two Democrats advance from the primary remains to be seen.

House

AL-2: Republicans Field Candidate — Though the new court ordered map has drawn a new Montgomery-Mobile district designed to elect a black Democrat, Republicans now have a candidate to compete in a general election campaign. Former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker announced over the weekend that he will file for the new congressional seat. Democrats already see seven announced candidates including two state senators, two state representatives, a Jefferson County Commissioner, and two minor candidates.

The candidate filing deadline is this week, on Nov. 10, so the official candidate field will soon be set. The Alabama statewide partisan primary is March 5. If no one secures majority support in the first election, a secondary runoff vote between the top two finishers will be held on April 2, 2024.

States

Election Day: Kentucky, Mississippi & Virginia — Today is election day around the country, and the contests drawing the most attention are occurring in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Virginia.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) runs for a second term while Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) opposes him. This contest has the potential to be close. The latest poll, from Emerson College (Oct. 30-Nov. 2; 1,000 likely Kentucky voters; multiple sampling techniques), finds Cameron taking a lead for the first time in the race, with a 49-48 percent edge. A Cameron victory would be viewed as a major upset.

Another upset is possible in Mississippi. Public Service Commission Brandon Presley (D) is polling close to Gov. Tate Reeves (R) who, like Gov. Beshear in Kentucky, is on the ballot for a second term. The latest available survey comes from Public Policy Polling for the Democratic Governors Association (Oct. 19-20; 601 likely Mississippi voters; live interview & text) and the results find Gov. Reeves’ previous much larger lead dropping to just 46-45 percent. Polling was similar four years ago and Reeves considerably outperformed the polling. It remains to be seen if that pattern repeats itself tomorrow.

Virginia hosts critical state legislative elections with all 140 seats in the General Assembly up for election. Republicans hold a two-vote margin in the House of Delegates; Democrats a two-vote edge in the state Senate. Majorities in both houses are very much up for grabs in redistricted seats where candidates are running for the first time.

Trends coming from these elections, plus the Republican outright victory in Louisiana back in October, could set a precursor trend for the regular 2024 elections.

Polling Projects Electoral College Win for Trump; California Senate Jockeying; New Jerseyans Want Menendez Out; New Candidate in MN-2; GOP Candidate Emerges in NC

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 23, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump

Trump’s Numbers: Polling Finds 291 Electoral Votes — According to a series of concurrently conducted independent polls, former President Donald Trump today would lead in enough states to provide him with 291 electoral votes, or 21 more than required to unseat President Joe Biden. Morning Consult, polling for Bloomberg News in various targeted states, projects Trump to leads in Arizona (+4), Georgia (+5), North Carolina (+4), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+2).

Last week, Emerson College also found Trump holding an advantage in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Simultaneously, the Marketing Resource Group saw Trump running seven points ahead in Michigan, but the more current Morning Consult/Bloomberg data shows the two candidates tied before the Wolverine State electorate. It is these aforementioned states that will make the difference nationally.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., now running as an Independent candidate, was not tested in the MC/Bloomberg survey series.

Senate

California: Sen. Butler Out; LA Anchorwoman I — Appointed California Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) announced yesterday that she will not run for a full term next year. Despite having more than a year in office after replacing the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), the early March 5 all-party jungle primary allowed her little time to begin competing against Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) and former baseball great Steve Garvey (R), all of whom have a major head start in fundraising and campaign organization.

Los Angeles news anchor Christina Pascucci (D), on the other hand, became a late entry into the crowded US Senate contest, but said she is getting into the race “ … because I have to fight for what I believe is possible for California and for this country.” Pascucci describes herself as a “moderate Democrat.”

New Jersey: Constituents Favor Menendez Resignation — A newly released Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of the Garden State electorate (Aug. 6-14; 813 New Jersey adults; live interview & text) finds that 70 percent of the respondents, including 71 percent of Democrats, believe that indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) should resign his seat even without him having a chance to defend himself in court.

So far, Sen. Menendez has been adamant about not resigning over the federal charges that accuse he, his wife, and several associates of engaging in bribery. While the senator is not forced to leave office, polls such as this clearly suggest that he will be a severe underdog in a June Democratic primary race against US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and potentially several others.

House

MN-2: New Republican Candidate — The GOP leadership is making another attempt to unseat Minnesota US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), but this time it is likely they will have a new standard bearer. Former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab announced his congressional candidacy late last week. In the past two elections, Rep. Craig has defeated military veteran Tyler Kistner but with an average vote percentage of only 49.5 percent. Republicans hope a fresh face will be able to get the extra support to top the three term House incumbent.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MN-2 as D+1, while the Daily Kos Elections site ranks the southeast Minnesota congressional district as the 14th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

Governor

North Carolina: New Republican Candidate Emerges — Attorney Bill Graham (R), who says he will invest at least $5 million of his own money into his statewide race, announced his candidacy for the state’s open governor’s position. Many in the Republican establishment doubt that the early front runner, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, can win a protracted campaign, which is sure to feature a barrage of attack ads portraying him as an extremist.

The leading Democratic nominee is Attorney General Josh Stein, but he only won the 2020 re-election campaign with 50.1 percent of the vote. Therefore, the Republicans will be competitive in the governor’s race regardless of who they nominate. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Rep. Lee in Trouble in California; Potential AL-7 Challenger; Prominent Dems Decline to Run in NJ; Rep. Cuellar Challenged by Former Staffers

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 29, 2023

Senate

California Rep. Barbara Lee (D), “seriously falling off the pace.”

California: Reps. Schiff & Porter Favored to Advance — The Public Policy Institute of California conducted another of their statewide polls (Aug. 28-Sept. 5; 1,671 California adults; 1,414 California registered voters; online) and sees Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) seriously falling off the pace in the crowded open US Senate field. Though only one candidate even reaches the 20 percent support mark, there is a clear break between the top two poll finishers and the rest of the candidates.

The PPIC survey finds Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) leading fellow Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) by a 20-15 percent count. Rep. Lee trails with just eight percent support. All other candidates are in low single digits. California features an all-party top two jungle primary format. The pair of top finishers in the March 5 primary regardless of party affiliation and percentage attained will advance into the November general election. This poll suggests we will see an eight month Double-Democrat bruising campaign between Reps. Schiff and Porter.

House

AL-7: Legislative Leader Exploring Cong Run Against Rep. Sewell — State Senate Minority Leader Bobby Singleton (D-Greensboro), who represents a western Alabama legislative district, announced he is forming a congressional exploratory committee to launch a Democratic primary challenge against seven-term Rep. Terri Sewell (D-Birmingham). Since his district lies in the heart of Rep. Sewell’s seat, the state Senate’s top Democrat said, “I’m not running in the new district. I’m running in Congresswoman Sewell’s … I want the big fish.” The new district will likely be drawn with Montgomery County as the population anchor, which will encompass much of the southeastern side of the state.

Sen. Singleton won’t have much time to weigh his chances. The candidate filing deadline is Nov. 10 for the March 5, 2024, Alabama primary. The new redistricting map will likely be completed late this week or early next.

NJ-7: Prominent Democrats Won’t Run — Democratic leaders are still trying to find the top candidate they believe can unseat freshman Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), but two of their prospects have both declined to run. Former state senator, ex-assemblyman, and previous gubernatorial candidate Ray Lesniak said he will not enter the 7th CD race, as did Dr. Tina Shah, a veteran of both the Obama and Biden Administrations. In the race are Roselle Park Mayor Joe Signorello, who left the Senate race to run here, former State Department official Jason Blazakis, and political organizer Sue Altman.

The FiveThirtyEight organization rates NJ-7 as R+3. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 16th most vulnerable seat in the 222 member House Republican Conference.

TX-28: Ex-Staffer to Challenge Rep. Cuellar — For the second time, a former staff member of Texas US Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D-Laredo) is challenging him for re-election. Jose Sanz, who left Rep. Cuellar’s staff as his district director earlier in the year, is returning as a Republican candidate to hopefully challenge his ex-boss in the 2024 general election.

Previously, a former office intern has twice opposed the congressman in the Democratic primary. Jessica Cisneros ran two close primary campaigns to Cuellar. In 2022, she forced him into a runoff before losing by just under 300 votes in the secondary election.

Cisneros says she is contemplating a third run. Rep. Cuellar is favored for re-election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-28 as D+7. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the 53rd most vulnerable seat in the 213 member House Democratic Conference.

Projected GOP Presidential Debate Qualifiers; New Senate Candidate in Ohio; Q2 Senate Financials Reported; A Strong CA-9 Candidate Emerges; Indiana Open Gov. Race News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 19, 2023

President

Debate: Projected Qualifiers — USA Today is projecting that six GOP presidential contenders will qualify for the Aug. 23 debate to be aired on FOX News, while another half-dozen may miss the cut. The candidates meeting the polling and donor requirements are, as expected, former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. The others are ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Those on the cusp of failing to meet the participation requirements are former Vice President Mike Pence, ex-Congressman Will Hurd, Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), ex-Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, and commentator Larry Elder.

Senate

Ohio: Sec of State Announces for Senate — As has been long expected, a third major Republican has joined the US Senate primary hoping to advance into the general election to oppose incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). Frank LaRose was first elected as Ohio’s Secretary of State in 2018 after serving two terms in the Ohio state Senate from the Akron area. He averaged 55 percent of the vote in his two victorious statewide campaigns.

LaRose is the only one of the three GOP candidates – the others being state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) and businessman Bernie Moreno – who has won a statewide race. Sen. Dolan ran for the US Senate in 2022 but lost the Republican primary. Moreno was also in that Senate race but withdrew before voting began seeing no reasonable victory path.

While LaRose is the only statewide official in the race, he begins well behind in the money race. Sen. Dolan has already invested $4 million into his campaign. Moreno reports raising $2.26 million in the 2nd Quarter.

The general election will be difficult since Sen. Brown is a three-term incumbent. The state, however, is significantly more Republican than when the senator last ran in 2018. The ’24 contest is becoming a must-win for the GOP if the party is to capture the Senate majority in the coming election.

Senate Finance: Q2 Dollar Numbers Reported — The 2nd Quarter fundraising numbers have been released, and the 58 reporting Senate candidates in the 34 races attracted a cumulative $91.7 million and have more than $228 million in their campaign accounts. This does not count any money that Super PACs have raised or plan to spend to affect the outcome of the 2024 US Senate electoral contests.

Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) was technically first in funds raised with $8.63 million, but $2.5 million of that total was transferred from his House committee. Rep. Allred’s potential general election opponent, Sen. Ted Cruz (R), ranked sixth overall but first among Republicans. He attracted $3.35 million in financial support.

California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) was the net Q2 fundraising leader, bringing in $8.17 million without any transfers from his House account. He also led the all-important cash-on-hand category with a whopping $29.8 million ready to spend on his Senate campaign. The total amounts raised during this early campaign phase suggest that we can expect another hotly contested campaign season next year.

House

CA-9: Republicans Gain Strong Candidate — Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, a Republican elected in a heavily Democratic city, is reportedly preparing an announcement for Thursday indicating he will forego running for a second term in his present position in order to challenge Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) for the US House seat. Rep. Harder was severely redistricted in the 2021 redraw, but still managed to record a 55-45 percent victory over San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti (R). The congressman had a huge 6:1 advantage in resources, which became a key factor in his re-election victory.

The CA-9 district could be one to watch nationally. Republicans must defeat several sitting Democratic incumbents if they are to hold their small House majority and this northern California seat, that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+8, could be on the cusp of becoming a top-tier conversion target.

Governor

Indiana: Newcomer May Enter Open Gov Race — Indiana Secretary of Commerce Brad Chambers (R) announced he will be resigning his position and it is anticipated that he will quickly declare his gubernatorial candidacy.

Though starting well behind the open race’s two front runners for the Republican nomination and the general election, US Sen. Mike Braun and Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, Chambers, who has the financial ability to self-fund his campaign, may soon become the fourth credible candidate in the field. Venture capitalist Eric Doden also has the ability to attract enough resources to propel his candidacy. Incumbent Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Sen. Braun is foregoing a second term in the Senate to enter the gubernatorial campaign.

New California Senate Entry; Montana’s Sheehy Gets Major Endorsement; Former Nevada Senate Candidate Ready to Announce; Louisiana & North Carolina Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Senate

Former Google executive Lexi Reese

California: New Senate Entry — Wealthy former Google executive Lexi Reese (D), who says she will spend some of her own fortune on the open statewide US Senate race, announced that she will enter the California March 5 all-party primary for the right to succeed retiring Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D).

While her path to claim one of the two qualifying positions necessary for advancing into the general election is narrow since she faces sitting US Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), the chances of her taking enough Democratic votes to potentially allow a Republican to sneak past the Democratic field and clinch a general election ballot slot becomes more plausible. The California Senate race will be one of the main attractions on Super Tuesday.

Montana: Another Major Endorsement for Sheehy — On the heels of retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy announcing his senatorial campaign and receiving the National Republican Senatorial Committee endorsement, another has come his way. Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) also announced his public support for Sheehy.

It is clear the Republican political establishment is getting solidly behind Sheehy in an attempt to deny Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), who soon will announce his own Senate candidacy, the nomination. Rep. Rosendale begins with a large polling lead, so it will be worth watching to see if the Montana Republican establishment has enough pull to thwart a strong Rosendale bid. The eventual party nominee then challenges three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D) in what should be considered a must-win contest for the GOP.

Nevada: Former Candidate Ready to Announce — Disabled Afghan War veteran Sam Brown lost the 2022 Senate Republican primary to former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, but raised more than $4.4 million for his race, which caught the attention of the Nevada Republican leaders. Reports are surfacing that suggest Brown will return for the 2024 campaign and will announce his intentions this month. Should he enter the Republican primary, he will face former state assemblyman and ex-Secretary of State nominee Jim Marchant.

The eventual Republican nominee will then challenge first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in what has the potential of becoming a top-tier 2024 Senate race.

Governor

Louisiana: Dueling Polls — Two all-party jungle gubernatorial primary polls have been released brandishing very different conclusions. The Remington Research Group (June 22-25; 896 likely Louisiana voters) released a survey this week that projected a close open contest. They found the lone Democratic candidate, former Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson, who is now the officially endorsed party candidate, usurping all Republicans to capture the lead with 27 percent, two points ahead of Attorney General Jeff Landry. Former Louisiana Chamber of Commerce CEO and ex-gubernatorial chief of staff Stephen Waguespack placed a relatively close third with 16 percent.

WPA Intelligence released their earlier poll to counter the Remington data. In their survey (June 15-17; 500 registered Louisiana voters; live interview & text) WPAi sees Landry (R) leading the candidate field with a 35 percent preference figure. Former Secretary Wilson secures the second general election runoff slot with 17 percent. In this poll, Waguespack (R) is a distant third with six percent support.

The Louisiana open governor’s primary is scheduled for Oct. 14. Since it is likely that no candidate will receive majority support, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, will advance into the general election runoff, which is on the calendar for Nov. 18. Incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards (D), who has already endorsed Wilson, is ineligible to seek a third term.

North Carolina: Budding Dem Primary on the Horizon — It has been presumed that Attorney General Josh Stein (D) would see little in the way of Democratic primary opposition in his bid to succeed term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper (D), but such may not ultimately be the case. Democratic state Supreme Court Justice Michael Morgan made a public comment late last week that clearly suggests he is seriously considering becoming a gubernatorial candidate.

Understanding that Stein was only re-elected attorney general with just 50.1 percent of the vote in 2020, many in the Democratic Party may believe the party would fare better with a fresh face come the 2024 general election. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and former Congressman Mark Walker are the leading Republican candidates. This is a developing story.

More Republicans to Enter Presidential Race; Dodgers Great Garvey Considers Running for Senate; A Democratic House Challenger Switches Up; New Hampshire Gov Candidate Announces

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 5, 2023

President

June 7: Two Announcements — It appears three more Republicans will soon enter the presidential contest, two on the same day. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will announce his 2024 presidential campaign tomorrow, Tuesday, June 6, at a town hall in Manchester, New Hampshire. Former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum are reportedly preparing announcements for this Wednesday, June 7, which would expand the official field to nine candidates with others, such as New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu looming as potential candidates.

Senate

Steve Garvey, former LA Dodgers great

California: Baseball Great May Enter Senate Race — Retired Los Angeles Dodger and San Diego Padre Steve Garvey (R) is considering entering the open US Senate race according to a story in the Los Angeles Times. Though Garvey has been retired as a player for 36 years after playing from 1969-1987, he still serves as an expert commentator in Major League Baseball, and his name remains well known in California’s two largest metro areas, Los Angeles and San Diego. For Republicans to have any chance in such a large state, they must begin with a candidate who is already well known.

While any Republican has little chance of winning a California general election, placing first in a crowded all-party jungle primary could be another story. With at least three strong Democrats in the open primary race, Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and Adam Schiff (R-Burbank), a unified minority Republican party coalescing behind a candidate like Steve Garvey would give the retired baseball player a strong chance of placing first in the jungle primary and securing a slot in the general election. This would mean that two of the three prominent House members would be eliminated in the March 5 primary election. This is a developing story.

House

CA-45; 47: One Challenger Switches Races — California Board of Equalization member Mike Schaefer (D), an announced congressional candidate for the 45th District seat that Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) holds, has decided to end his campaign and re-establish it in neighboring District 47, which will be an open seat.

The Democratic side in the Steel district is packed. Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen, and attorneys Cheyenne Hunt, Aditya Pat, and Jimmy Phan are all announced and active candidates. The 47th District, which Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) is vacating to run for Senate, finds state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine), television writer Lori Kirkland Baker, and several minor candidates running.

With Sen. Min’s recent conviction for drunk driving, and ex-Rep. Harley Rouda (D) having to withdraw for health reasons, Schaefer perceives an opening. The eventual November Democratic finalist will likely oppose Republican former state assemblyman and 2022 congressional finalist Scott Baugh. The California all-party jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Governor

New Hampshire: New Democrat Comes Forward for Gov Race ‘24 — New Hampshire Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D) declared late last week that she will enter the 2024 governor’s race. The Executive Council, unique to New Hampshire, is a five-member elected board that provides a check on the governor’s power. Previously, Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) announced that she will not seek re-election to her current position and instead filed a gubernatorial exploratory committee.

Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is not expected to seek a fifth two-year term, instead likely moving forward with a presidential bid. Therefore, an open governor’s race would be highly competitive in New Hampshire, which still qualifies as a swing state where either party can sweep a statewide ticket.

Several Republicans have been discussed as gubernatorial possibilities in the event that Sununu does not run. The most prominent in terms of saying he would enter an open race is former State Senate President Chuck Morse, who lost the 2022 US Senate primary by one percentage point.

Robson Won’t Run in Arizona;
Second Lee Poll Confirms First in CA; First Texas Senate Poll Released; House Races Take Shape

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 30,2023

Senate

Former University of Arizona Regent Karrin Taylor Robson (R) announced late last week that she would not enter Arizona’s Senate race.

Arizona: Robson Won’t Run — Former University of Arizona Regent Karrin Taylor Robson (R), who lost a 48-43 percent gubernatorial Republican primary to Kari Lake in 2022, announced late last week that she would not enter what will be a three-way Senate race among the eventual GOP nominee, Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, and who appears to be a consensus Democratic candidate, US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix). Lake is a likely GOP Senate candidate.

The Arizona race continues to evolve as possibly the most interesting campaign in the election cycle considering it yields a three-way contest where each of the major candidates, Sen. Sinema, Rep. Gallego, and the undetermined Republican will have a legitimate path to victory.

California: Second Poll Confirms First — A second California Senate poll released in consecutive days, this one from the University of California at Berkeley for the Los Angeles Times (May 17-22; 7,465 registered California voters; 5,236 likely jungle primary voters; online), found similar results to Rep. Barbara Lee’s (D-Oakland) internal data from the FM3, Evitarus, and HIT Strategies research firms that was released on Wednesday.

As in the Lee survey, Republican Eric Early is the jungle primary leader. The LA Times/UC survey finds him attracting 18 percent support, with Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) close behind at 17 percent. Following are Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) and Lee, who post 14 and nine percent, respectively. The Lee poll found a 27-24-21-11 percent division in the same order but with Early posting a larger margin.

Texas: First 2024 Senate Poll Released — Building upon Rep. Colin Allred’s (D-Dallas) US Senate announcement, the University of Texas at Tyler’s recent poll (May 10-21; 1,413 registered Texas voters; live interview & online) finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading his probable general election opponent, 42-37 percent. If Texas polling history remains constant, in 2024 we can expect relatively close ballot tests reported throughout this campaign between the two-term incumbent and Rep. Allred, with Sen. Cruz in the end winning with a larger margin than forecast.

House

AZ-6: Contested Dem Primary — The 2022 battle for Arizona’s southeastern politically marginal 6th Congressional District saw Republican Juan Ciscomani defeating then-state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) by a tight 50.7 – 49.3 percent margin. Engel is returning for a re-match, but she will not have a clean primary.

Already, two Democrats have announced their candidacies, one just this week. Previously, former local school board member Vieri Tenuta declared for the seat. Now, business consultant and non-profit organization executive Jack O’Donnell has also entered the Democratic primary. The nature of the district suggests another close general election battle, but the contested August primary will likely help Rep. Ciscomani better position himself for the November election.

DE-AL: Preliminary Moves Being Made — Though at-large Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington) has yet to say she will run to succeed retiring Sen. Tom Carper (D), already we see four state legislators beginning to position themselves to run for what they believe will be an open US House seat. State Senate Majority Leader Bryan Townsend (D-Newark), Senate Majority Whip Elizabeth Lockman (D-Wilmington), senator and former Obama White House aide Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington), and state Rep. Kerri Evelyn Harris (D-Dover) are all considered potential federal candidates.