Tag Archives: Brad Wilson

Trump Skipping Second Debate; Impact of Romney’s Move; Tragic News for Virginia Rep. Wexton; Tight District Race in NM-2; Houston Mayoral Runoff Schedule Set

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 22, 2023

President

A view of the Ronald Reagan Library

Donald Trump: Skipping Second Debate — Former President Donald Trump said this week that he will not join the other Republican candidates at the Sept. 27 debate forum at the Ronald Reagan Library in southern California. Instead, he will be making a speech about the striking United Auto Workers union to lay the groundwork for potential support in the general election.

As he continues to hold a big lead over the entire GOP candidate field, Trump would stand to gain little by participating in the next forum. Due to more stringent debate requirements, the Republican National Committee expects to have fewer candidates earning a debate podium, with North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and ex-Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson unlikely to qualify.

Senate

Utah: Two Make Moves to Join Open Race — Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R) announcement that he will not seek re-election has led to a pair of Republicans readying to enter the race. Roosevelt Mayor Rod “JR” Bird Jr. just announced his candidacy, joining Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs in the active field. State House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville) said he will resign his position in mid-November and has scheduled a “special announcement” for Sept. 27. We can expect a large Republican field to form.

House

VA-7: ’22 Cong Candidate will Return — Iraq War veteran and attorney Derrick Anderson (R), who ran for the 7th District seat in the last election but failed to win the Republican primary, announced that he will return in 2024. Four other Republicans have already declared their candidacies for the politically marginal seat.

Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) is reportedly looking at a 2025 run for governor, and if she ultimately moves in that direction, she would not seek re-election to the House in 2024. Therefore, this race will move up the competitive scale. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the VA-7 seat as D+2. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the 7th as the 14th most vulnerable seat in the 213-member Democratic conference.

Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Leesburg)

VA-10: Health Problems Will Keep Rep. Wexton From Seeking Re-Election — Three-term Virginia US Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Leesburg) announced that she will not run for a fourth term next year due to a catastrophic health diagnosis.

“I’ve always believed that honesty is the most important value in public service, so I want to be honest with you now – this new diagnosis is a tough one. There is no ‘getting better’ with PSP (Progressive Supranuclear Palsy).” The Mayo Clinic says that “Progressive Supranuclear Palsy is an uncommon brain disorder that causes serious problems with walking, balance and eye movements, and later with swallowing. … [It] worsens over time and can lead to life-threatening complications, such as pneumonia and swallowing problems. There’s no cure for [it], so treatment focuses on managing the signs and symptoms.”

Virginia’s 10th Congressional District is anchored in Loudoun County and contains Fauquier and Rappahannock counties along with parts of Prince William and Fairfax counties. The cities of Manassas and Manassas Park are also included.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat D+8, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 55.2D – 43.0R. President Joe Biden carried this district with a substantial 58.3 – 40.2 percent margin. We can expect a competitive open campaign to develop here, but the eventual Democratic nominee will have a clear advantage in the general election.

NM-2: Tight District Race — One of the closest 2022 campaigns occurred in southern New Mexico where then-Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D) defeated freshman Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) by a scant 50.3 – 49.6% victory margin in a gerrymandered district designed to elect a Democrat. Survey USA was just in the field testing the 2024 re-match campaign. Again, the polling results suggest a toss-up finish.

The S-USA study (Sept. 6-12; 541 likely NM-2 voters; live interview & online) sees Herrell clutching to a slight onepoint edge over Rep. Vasquez, 46-45%. If the Republicans are to hold their slim House majority, they must win tight districts such as this one to neutralize the Democrats’ apparent advantage on the second round of redistricting.

Cities

Houston: Runoff Schedule Set — Gov. Greg Abbott (R) indicated that he would select Dec. 9 as the runoff election date for any contest that is not decided in the coming Nov. 7th election.

Under Texas law, a runoff is not officially scheduled until it is certain that one would be required. The open Houston mayoral contest largely between current US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) and state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) is likely the premier electoral contest, which will require a secondary vote. The Abbott comments give the candidates a better idea as to what time they will have regarding post-election campaign planning.

South Carolina Primary Challenge; Utah Senate Candidates Post-Romney; Manchin Contemplating Party Exit; Census Estimates Released; Former NJ Governor May Return

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 18, 2023

Senate

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill)

South Carolina: Budding 2026 Primary Challenge — US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is confirming reports that he is considering challenging Sen. Lindsey Graham in the 2026 Republican primary. Rep. Norman, elected in a 2017 special election after winning six terms in the state House of Representatives, is a leader in the House Freedom Caucus. If he does run, he will oppose Sen. Graham from the party’s right flank.

Utah: AG Won’t Run — Immediately after Sen. Mitt Romney (R) announced he will not run for re-election, speculation about who might enter the race began running rampant. The two who appear as sure candidates are state House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville) and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs (R). One individual who rather surprisingly has already taken himself out of the Senate race is Attorney General Sean Reyes, who at one time was thought to become a Romney primary challenger. Late last week, Reyes said he will run for re-election as attorney general, thus bypassing the open Senate race.

West Virginia: Manchin Contemplating Party Exit — Reportedly, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D), who has not yet decided whether to seek re-election, make a third party run for president, or retire from politics, is also contemplating leaving the Democratic Party. Therefore, if he does run for office again a strong possibility exists that he will do so as an Independent.

Sen. Manchin faces a difficult re-election run as the West Virginia Democratic Party’s status has weakened considerably since he was last on the ballot in 2018. The senator was originally elected in a 2010 special election. He has served as West Virginia’s governor, secretary of state, and in both houses of the state legislature, all as a Democrat. West Virginia continues to be rated as the Republican’s top conversion Senate opportunity. Both Gov. Jim Justice and US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) are competing for the Republican nomination.

States

Census: Estimates Released — The Census Bureau has released new population growth statistics for the 50 states, Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. The fastest growing states for the period ending July 1, 2022, are Florida, Idaho, South Carolina, Montana, and Texas. The states losing the most population are New York, Louisiana, Illinois, California, and West Virginia. The population numbers are determinative to the number of congressional seats each state will possess in the next decade.

Cities

Jersey City, NJ: Former Governor May Return — Jim McGreevey (D), who was elected New Jersey’s governor in 2001 but who resigned because of a hiring scandal and gay love affair before the end of his first term, is contemplating making a political comeback. Apparently, a draft committee is being organized to encourage him to file for the Jersey City mayor’s post when it comes up for election next year.

In addition to being elected governor, McGreevey served as mayor of Woodbridge Township and spent six years in the New Jersey legislature. He has not run for any office since departing politics in 2004.

Ramaswamy Advances in Polling; Romney Support Dips in Utah;
Rep. Boebert’s Colorado Challenge; Significant Candidate Lead in NH

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 21, 2023

President

Vivek Ramaswamy (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Vivek Ramaswamy: Major Move in National Polls — Three new national Republican primary surveys find businessman Vivek Ramaswamy moving into the top tier within the large field of presidential candidates. The Fox News Poll (Aug. 11-14; 1,002 registered US voters; live interview) and the Quinnipiac University national surveys (Aug. 11-14; 1,632 self-identified US registered voters; 681 Republican and Republican leaning voters; 666 Democratic and Democratic leaning primary voters; live interview) project Ramaswamy as placing third behind former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

The RMG Research survey finds Ramaswamy doing even better. In their latest poll (Aug. 11-14; 1,000 registered US voters; 229 likely Republican primary voters), though with a very small national GOP sample, Ramaswamy moves into second place with 13 percent compared to Gov. DeSantis’ 8 percent. Former President Trump tops the RMG poll with a whopping 60 percent support figure.

Senate

Utah: Sen. Romney at 30 percent in New GOP Poll — A Noble Predictive Insights survey conducted a month ago but just released just late last week (July 7-18; 598 registered Utah voters; 301 likely Republican primary voters; online) finds Utah Sen. Mitt Romney drawing only 30 percent support among a respondent sample of his own Republican primary voters.

Despite the low preference number, Sen. Romney leads a group of potential GOP opponents. Closest to him is Attorney General Sean Reyes, an unannounced Senate candidate, who posted 13 percent support. The two official candidates, state House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville) and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs posted five and three percent, respectively. When asked of the entire sample whether they believe Sen. Romney should run for re-election, 39 percent answered yes, while 44 percent replied with a negative response.

House

CO-3: Rep. Boebert’s Republican Challenge — Saying he’s “… not interested in becoming a social media celebrity … I’m interested in helping families and helping businesses and helping communities,” attorney Jeff Hurd entered Colorado’s 3rd District Republican primary hoping to deny two-term incumbent Congresswoman Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) renomination. In 2022, then-state Sen. Don Coram challenged her in the party primary but received only 34 percent of the Republican vote.

Should Rep. Boebert win renomination, she will again face a difficult general election against Democrat Adam Frisch who came within 546 votes of unseating her in the 2022 general election. This, despite the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating CO-3 as R+15.

Governor

New Hampshire: Significant Open Primary Polling Leads — Earlier in the week, we covered an Emerson College survey (Aug. 9-11; 837 registered New Hampshire voters; interactive voice response system, text & online) that posted former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) to substantial leads over two strong Democratic contenders. Now, we see the primary numbers from this same poll.

According to Emerson, Ayotte would not only lead in the general election, but she opens a definitive edge over who will likely be her chief Republican opponent, former state Senate President Chuck Morse. The initial ballot test finds Ayotte leading Morse, 45-9 percent. On the Democratic side, Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig is staked to a strong 52-15 percent advantage over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is retiring after serving what will be four consecutive terms when his tenure expires at the beginning of 2025.

Costello Challenges Maine’s Sen King; PA Senate Poll; Romney’s Rough Road in Utah; Louisiana Gov. Race Update

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 17, 2023

Senate

Maine: Sen. King Draws Democratic Opponent — David Costello (D), a former aide to Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley (D) before moving to Maine, announced his candidacy for the US Senate late last week. (See video above.) He hopes to oppose Independent Sen. Angus King, who is expected to seek a third term. Democrats have filed candidates in both of Sen. King’s victorious races, but neither have been competitive. Still, the three-way race including the Republican nominee, was able to keep Sen. King’s winning percentages down to 54 and 51 percent in 2012 and 2018, respectively.

Should Costello be able to mount a significant campaign, the chances increase for Sen. King to drop below 50 percent, and that means Maine’s Ranked Choice Voting system would take effect. In that wild-card system, the end result would not be as easy to predict.

Pennsylvania: First 2024 Poll — On the heels of Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) announcing that he will seek a fourth term, Pennsylvania’s Franklin & Marshall College went into the field with a statewide survey (March 27-4/7; 643 registered Pennsylvania voters; live interview). According to these results, Sen. Casey would lead 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick (R), 42-35 percent. His lead significantly expands to 47-31 percent if his opponent were 2022 gubernatorial nominee and state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R).

Somewhat surprisingly, the poll finds Sen. Casey’s job approval rating at a rather poor 29:48 percent favorable to unfavorable. This compares to Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro’s positive 43:36 percent job approval ratio.

Utah: Sen. Romney Files 2024 Campaign Committee — Utah Sen. Mitt Romney (R) has filed a 2024 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. While this action is not a formal declaration of candidacy, filing a campaign committee is certainly the first step toward him seeking a second term.

It is likely that Sen. Romney will be forced to petition his way onto the ballot since the chances of him coming through the conservative Utah Republican Party nominating convention are slim. Such would lead to a June 2024 Republican primary challenge. The most prominent potential opponent being discussed is former congressman and Fox News contributor Jason Chaffetz. State House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville) has formed a US Senate exploratory committee. Attorney General Sean Reyes (R) is also a potential Senate candidate.

States

Louisiana: Gov Candidate to Switch Races — The surprise announcement from Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin (R) that he is not going to seek re-election has now changed the governor’s race. State House Speaker Clay Schexnayder (R-Gonzales), who was clearly laying the groundwork to enter the open governor’s race, has now adjusted his political course and announced his run for the open Secretary of State’s position.

The top Republicans already in the governor’s race are Attorney General Jeff Landry, state Treasurer John Schroder, and former Chamber of Commerce CEO Stephen Waguespack. Democrats look to be coalescing around former state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. The Louisiana primary is Oct. 14, 2023. If no candidate receives majority support, a two-person runoff will occur on Nov. 18.