Tag Archives: Sen. Jacky Rosen

Harris Leads Trump by Just One in Virginia; Sen. Hawley Expands Lead in Missouri; Brown Even in Nevada; Sykes Battles in OH-13

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Virginia Shock Poll: Harris Up by Only One — A new Quantum Insights poll for the Trending Politics news blog released a very surprising poll result, one that found Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by just one percentage point, 49-48 percent, in the routinely blue Commonwealth of Virginia.

The survey (Oct. 22-24; 725 likely Virginia voters; online) found black voters breaking for Harris with a 77 percent support level, which is under what we typically see for this population segment, while Trump receiving 21 percent is higher than average for a Republican candidate. White voters are moving toward Trump with a 57 percent support factor, and Hispanics divide 55-41 percent in favor of Harris. Isolating the latter group, 41 percent is also an above average support factor for a Republican candidate, but the sample size reflected only half the size of the actual Virginia Hispanic population base.

The Washington Post/George Mason University survey, however, taken within the same time frame (Oct. 19-23; 1,004 likely Virginia voters; multiple sampling techniques), sees Harris holding a 49-43 percent advantage, which is closer to Virginia voting history.

Senate

Missouri: Sen. Hawley Expands Lead — In September, a survey was publicized showing Sen. Josh Hawley (R) topping military veteran and attorney Lucas Kunce (D) by just five percentage points. Money started to come into the Kunce campaign to close the financial deficit and, as a result, the race began attracting some national attention.

The new Emerson College study (for The Hill newspaper; Oct. 22-23; 620 likely Missouri voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Sen. Hawley rebounding to a full 10-point advantage, 51-41 percent. This suggests a return to a more typical Missouri voting pattern. It is expected that Sen. Hawley will likely continue gaining momentum and win in the mid to high 50s.

Nevada: Brown Pulls Even — Since June began, 26 polls have been conducted of the Nevada Senate race and incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) has led in all with an average eight percentage point edge. A new OnMessage survey, however, tells a different story. This poll (Oct. 19-22; 600 likely Nevada voters; text to web; part of a three state study) sees Republican challenger Sam Brown pulling into a tie with Sen. Rosen at 48-48 percent.

While the contest has been getting closer with Brown typically shaving half from Sen. Rosen’s previous healthy lead, no other ballot test result has shown the race tied. Therefore, the OnMessage poll could be an outlier, or is possibly detecting the onset of a Republican surge. So far, and for the first time since 2020 early voting, more Republicans have cast their ballots than Democrats. As a point of reference, the presidential ballot test also showed Trump leading, 50-46 percent.

House

OH-13: One Point Poll Released — The Akron-anchored northern Ohio 13th Congressional District was created as an open seat on the 2021 redistricting bill. In ‘22, then-state Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) defeated Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R) by a 53-47 percent count in what was a better Democratic performance then initially predicted. This year, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin is the GOP candidate, and a new survey suggests he has moved into ballot test parity with Rep. Sykes even though he is being outspent by better than a 3:1 ratio, including the outside money that has entered for both sides.

The late October co/efficient poll (Oct. 22-24; 707 likely OH-13 voters; live interview & text) gives Coughlin a one-point edge over Rep. Sykes, 46-45 percent. Likewise, former President Trump leads VP Kamala Harris by a single point. In the Senate race, from the district that Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) would represent today if he were a US representative, he leads Republican Bernie Moreno by only three points, 49-46 percent. This is one more House race that will draw attention on election night.

VP Harris Holds Slight Edge in Nevada; Balance of Senate Tested; Senate Money in Maryland; Examining California’s Key Districts

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 27, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Nevada: New Polling Data Tracking with 2020 Result — Noble Predictive Insights tested the Nevada electorate in reference to the presidential campaign and finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by only a percentage point, 48-47 percent.

Looking at the geographic division in the Noble poll and comparing it to Gov. Joe Lombardo’s (R) victorious 2022 votes received from Clark County (Las Vegas), Washoe County (Reno), and the rural Nevada areas, the Trump figures are equivalent to Lombardo’s performance in Clark and Washoe. It is the rural areas where Trump will need to slightly improve if he is to carry the state.

While he will outpace Harris by better than 2:1 in this region, Trump’s 2020 performance in the rural areas was a point behind Lombardo’s 2022 total. Considering Trump lost to then candidate Joe Biden by 2.3 percentage points here in 2020, the former president will need to improve slightly upon Lombardo’s numbers in all regions, but especially in the rural areas, if he is to compensate for his previous deficit.

Senate

FiveThirtyEight: Releases New Senate Mean Average Data — The FiveThirtyEight data organization released new mean averages for all the competitive Senate races and, for the most part, the numbers are consistent with averages publicized on other platforms.

While Democrats have relatively small but consistent leads in most of the competitive states, the Republican average is stronger (+3) in Montana, where a Tim Sheehy (R) victory over Sen. Jon Tester (D) would likely clinch an outright GOP Senate majority. The race that appears to be getting closer is in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) average advantage has dropped to three percentage points. The candidate with the strongest average is Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) at +9.

Maryland: Big Media Buy for Hogan Allies — Reports from the Free State are indicating that the Maryland’s Future Super PAC organization, which supports former Gov. Larry Hogan (R), has been reserving $18.2 million of advertising time for between now and the election. This is twice the amount that Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks is spending. Expect to see a large amount of Super PAC money to come to Alsobrooks’ rescue. The Democratic leadership and her outside allies will ensure the spending gap is at least equalized.

House

California: USC Releases Polls for Key Districts — The University of Southern California and the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at Cal State University Long Beach partnered to test eight California congressional districts. Two were Democrat vs. Democrat campaigns, and another found the sample size dropping significantly below an adequate level, so the numbers in CA-22 — Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. Rudy Salas (D) — should not be considered as viable. In the two Democratic seats, Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) board member Lateefah Simon leads in Rep. Barbara Lee’s (D-Oakland) open 12th District and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo posts a sizable advantage in Rep. Anna Eshoo’s (D-Atherton) open 16th CD.

Interestingly, in only one of two races where the Republican candidate held a lead, the USC poll features a GOP challenger. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) held a three-point lead over state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) in an open contest where the latter man’s most prevalent negative is his highly publicized drunk driving conviction. The other leader is Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) who posted only a one-point edge over former federal prosecutor and 2022 general election finalist Will Rollins (D).

The Democrats who were leading Republican incumbents were Adam Gray over Rep. John Duarte (one point difference), George Whitesides topping Rep. Mike Garcia (+2), and Derek Tran leading Rep. Michelle Steel (+2).
The pollsters interviewed 2,395 likely voters in the five congressional districts during the Sept. 14-21 period. Interestingly, the undecided voters, when pushed, leaned toward Reps. Duarte and Calvert, and for the Democratic candidate in the other three contests.

In terms of the presidential vote, Kamala Harris led in all tested districts against Donald Trump but ran an average of three percentage points behind Joe Biden’s 2020 tallies. All of these races are very much in play, and the turnout model will likely be the deciding factor.

New Senate Numbers

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 4, 2024

Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing)

A new polling series involving several Senate races unveils some new interesting data patterns.

Emerson College, polling for the Hill Newspaper, conducted one of their typical survey series for key US Senate races. In this group, during the period of Aug. 25-28, the Emerson pollsters queried an aggregate total of 4,488 respondents in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Within this group, we saw serious new movement in the Wolverine and Badger States.

In Michigan, which has consistently featured a close race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the Democrat’s lead increased to six points, 47-41 percent, according to the Emerson data. The bigger surprise was Wisconsin. In the Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Eric Hovde (R) Emerson ballot test, the incumbent led by only one point, 49-48 percent.

In most of this year’s polling, the Michigan race has returned close results, and routinely followed the pattern set in the presidential contest. In 2024, this type of trend was unusual because the other competitive states consistently found the Republican candidate running substantially behind the percentages that GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump was posting.

This is not the first poll, however, that projected a separation between the two Michigan candidates. Just before Emerson went into the field with their polling series, the TIPP poll, surveying for the American Greatness organization (Aug. 20-22; 741 likely Michigan general election voters; online), found Slotkin leading by 10 percentage points, or four more than the Emerson result. At the time, the TIPP poll appeared as an anomaly; instead, the benchmark may have proved the beginning of a new trend.

The one-point Wisconsin spread Emerson finds between Sen. Baldwin and Hovde is much different than any other poll conducted since February with the exception of one survey taken at the end of June and the beginning of July. The data from that poll, which the Remington Research Group conducted, found the two contenders deadlocked in a 48-48 percent tie.

According to the Real Clear Politics data and policy site, Sen. Baldwin’s mean average lead is 6.35 percent from the 24 Wisconsin Senate polls that have been conducted this year, and the median average is seven points. Within the 24 polls, her highest margin was 12 points, reached twice, with the low being the aforementioned Remington Research tie.

It remains to be seen if the Emerson Wisconsin poll is itself an anomaly or the beginning of a new close trend.

The other Emerson results return numbers often seen in other studies. In Arizona, the Emerson data finds Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leading former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, 49-42 percent. In the other four August Grand Canyon State surveys that four different polling entities conducted: Fox News, Rasmussen Reports, Noble Predictive Insights, and the New York Times/Siena College, Rep. Gallego chronologically led Lake by 15, 8, 7, and 9 percentage points.

The Emerson Nevada numbers, which show a 10-point spread for incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) over her opponent, businessman and Afghan War disabled veteranSam Brown (R), are consistent with the three other August Silver State polls. Here, the group of pollsters is consistent with those found in Arizona except for not including Noble Predictive Insights. In these surveys, the Rosen margin was 14, 11, and 9 percentage points.

The final state in the Emerson series is Pennsylvania. Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) is running for a fourth term. Here, Emerson finds Sen. Casey and former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R) locked in a low single-digit battle, separated by four percentage points.

Pennsylvania has seen a greater degree of August polling than the other states. In this race, pollsters have surveyed the Keystone State electorate a total of seven times. In addition to the previously mentioned pollsters, Quinnipiac University, Franklin & Marshall, and the Cook Political Report also surveyed the Senate race.

In the early part of the month, Sen. Casey had opened a large lead over McCormick, to the tune of 13, 12, and 14 percentage points. From the polls ending Aug. 8 to the present, the contest has tightened. Including two Emerson College polls, the margin between Casey and McCormick had lessened to 4, 3, 4, and 5 points, chronologically. This suggests a clear move in the contest and now becomes a campaign where the leader consistently posts only low single-digit advantages.

We can expect to see much more data coming from each of these states before the Nov. 5 election. All of these contests will have an important role in determining which party controls the next Senate majority.

Sheehy Up in Montana; New Mexico Senate Race Tightens; Fong’s Opponent Drops Out; Nevada Abortion Initiative on Ballot

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 8, 2024

Senate

Retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy

Montana: Sheehy Up Beyond Margin of Error — After not finding much polling data for this critically important Senate race during the early part of the election cycle, we are now seeing plentiful surveying activity. The latest poll comes from Torchlight Strategies for the Common Sense for America conservative political action committee. The study (June 22-26; 649 registered Montana voters) sees retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) leading three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D), 47-41 percent. Two recent surveys from Public Opinion Strategies and Fabrizio Lee & Associates both cast the Senate race as a dead heat.

Consistent with the two other most recent polls, former President Donald Trump is staked to a large lead in the Torchlight survey. The result finds Trump topping President Joe Biden, 51-35 percent. With such a strong Republican lead at the top of the ticket, thus setting the turnout model, it will be difficult for Sen. Tester to overcome what will likely be late Republican election momentum in this state.

New Mexico: Senate Race Tightens — As the presidential race grows tighter and expands into several unlikely states, a new 1892 polling organization survey (June 19-24; 600 likely New Mexico voters) posts President Biden to only a one-point New Mexico lead over Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I), 43-42-8 percent, in a state that last went for a Republican presidential nominee in 2004.

In the Senate contest, 1892 projects Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), on the ballot seeking a third term, to only a 46-42 percent advantage over former hedge fund CEO Nella Domenici, the daughter of the late six-term New Mexico US Sen. Pete Domenici (R). This is a long-shot Republican conversion opportunity that is beginning to draw more political interest.

House

CA-20: Rep. Fong’s Opponent Suspends — Through various elections and court challenges, newly elected California US Rep. Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) has already secured his seat for a full term in the next Congress. Last week, Fong’s lone general election opponent, Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux (R), who finished behind Fong in the regular and special primary elections before losing 61-39 percent in the May 21 special general election, announced that he is suspending his regular general election campaign and endorses the new incumbent for re-election.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-20, the seat of former US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R), as R+31 making it the safest Republican seat in California. The fact that Fong had placed ahead of Sheriff Boudreaux three times suggested that him winning re-election in November was becoming a virtual certainty.

States

Nevada: Abortion Initiative Qualifies –– Silver State election officials yesterday announced that the initiative to codify the state’s abortion law into the Nevada Constitution will be on the general election ballot. The Secretary of State confirmed that the movement proponents had gathered the necessary valid petition signatures to put the measure before the voters.

Under Nevada election law, initiatives must qualify in consecutive elections. Therefore, even if this abortion related measure passes in 2024, it will return for a second vote in 2026. National Democratic strategists want abortion propositions on the ballot because they will likely spur turnout among some lower propensity left-of-center voters. The Nevada Democratic strategists will highlight their candidates’ support for this particular ballot measure, in order to increase support for President Biden, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and the party’s congressional nominees.

Significant Lead for Alsobrooks in Maryland; Senate Race Tightens in Nevada; Cori Bush in Dead Heat; Another Dead Heat in WA-3

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 27, 2024

Senate

Angela Alsobrooks

Maryland: Alsobrooks Develops Significant Lead — A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) opening an advantage over ex-Gov. Larry Hogan (R) despite his favorable ratings.

The PPP survey (June 19-20; 635 Maryland voters) sees Alsobrooks leading Hogan and a series of independents and minor party candidates (cumulatively), 45-34-5 percent. In a head-to-head ballot test, she leads Hogan 48-40 percent. This, despite a positive Hogan favorability index of 50:33 percent. The biggest drag for Hogan is from the top of the Maryland ticket where President Joe Biden leads former President Donald Trump, 56-30 percent.

Nevada: Race Tightens — A new survey from a Democratic and Republican polling team finds a closer Senate race than the Emerson College poll conducted during the same period. The Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) survey, commissioned for AARP (June 12-18; 600 likely Nevada general election voters; live interview & text) sees Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), riding a media ad blitz, leading Republican Sam Brown, 47-42 percent, while former President Trump has a 44-37-10 percent advantage over President Biden and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I).

Conversely, Emerson College’s study (June 13-18; 1,000 registered Nevada voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Sen. Rosen with a much larger lead over Brown, 50-38 percent. While there is a clear advantage for Sen. Rosen in the most recent polling, this race will still be highly competitive come November.

House

MO-1: Rep. Bush in Dead Heat –– The Mellman Group, conducting a survey for the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC (June 18-22; 400 registered MO-1 Democratic voters; live interview & text), sees challenger Wesley Bell, a former St. Louis County prosecutor, pulling into a one point, 43-42 percent, lead over Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis), a member of the Socialist Democrat “Squad.” The Mellman analysis finds that Bell has closed the gap against the incumbent since January, seeing a net 17-point swing in his favor.

We can expect heavy outside spending coming into the district before the Aug. 6 primary. The pro-Israel organizations were successful in helping to defeat another Squad member, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), in Tuesday night’s Democratic primary. Rep. Bush is another of the most anti-Israel congressional members and a top target of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and the DMFI PAC.

WA-3: Dead Heat Poll — A new Public Policy Polling survey, regularly conducted for the Northwest Progressive Institute (June 11-12; 649 registered WA-3 voters; live interview & text), sees Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) trailing 2022 general election finalist Joe Kent (R), by a 46-45 percent dead heat margin.

Washington’s 3rd District, which lies in the far southwestern corner of the state and anchored in the city of Vancouver, is the second-most Republican district that a US House Democrat represents. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+11. In 2022, Perez defeated Kent by less than a percentage point in one of the biggest upsets of that election year. The 2024 rematch, which is likely to occur after the state’s Aug. 6 jungle primary, portends to be just as close.

Trump Conviction Not Hurting Poll Standing; Top Nevada GOP Candidate Struggles; GA-3 Candidate Gaining Strength; Junge Takes Lead in MI-8

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 7, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump

Polling: Trump Conviction Not Hurting Poll Standing — In the first released polls since former President Donald Trump’s conviction was announced on Thursday night, a pair of pollsters still project him locked in a virtual national tie with President Joe Biden. YouGov, polling for The Economist publication and Morning Consult released their frequent tracks.

In the YouGov survey (June 2-4; 1,566 registered US voters; online), the ballot test finds Trump and Biden tied at 42 percent apiece. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) records three percent support, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Independent Cornel West each secure one percent preference. Morning Consult (May 31-June 2; 10,404 registered US voters; online) sees Trump holding a slight 44-43 percent edge in a head-to-head test. Therefore, with the respondents knowing of the Trump conviction, the voting populace seems unfazed.

Senate

Nevada: Shock GOP Primary Poll — While Afghan War veteran and official Republican Party backed Senate candidate Sam Brown was expected to breeze through the GOP primary, a new poll suggests otherwise. A Kaplan Strategies study conducted for the Jeff Gunter (R) campaign (May 30; 802 likely Nevada Republican primary voters; online) sees the former Ambassador to Iceland and physician moving ahead of Brown by a 31-30 percent count.

In further bad news for Brown, the Tyson Group (May 22-25; 601 likely Nevada general election voters; online) shows Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leading the general election ballot test with a large 47-33 percent advantage. In both the Gunter and Rosen cases, the candidates had launched large media blitzes prior to the polling, which could explain the swing away from Brown. Gunter may be hitting his peak at the right time, however, as the Nevada primary is fast approaching on June 11.

House

GA-3: Jack Continues to Gain Runoff Support — Former Trump White House aide Brian Jack (R) came close to winning the open GA-3 primary on May 21 when he captured 47 percent of the initial vote against five GOP opponents. Still short of the majority threshold, Jack was forced into a runoff with state Sen. Mike Dugan (R-Carrollton) who received 25 percent support.

The third and fourth place finishers — former state Sen. Mike Crane and ex-state Rep. Philip Singleton — both have endorsed Jack. Coming close to the majority marker and getting former opponents’ support places Jack in a strong position for the upcoming June 18 runoff election. With an R+38 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization, winning the GOP runoff is tantamount to claiming the seat. Four-term Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-The Rock) is retiring.

MI-8: Junge Takes Lead in Primary & General — Michigan’s open 8th Congressional District is one of the key toss-up races in the country. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+1, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.0D – 46.2R partisan lean. President Biden scored a tight 50.3 – 48.2 percent win here in 2020, and the Daily Kos Elections site ranks MI-8 as the 11th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Therefore, it is safe to predict that either eventual major party nominee will have a legitimate chance to win the general election.

A poll from the UpOne Insights group (June 1-4; 400 registered MI-8 voters; 341 likely GOP primary voters; live interview) projects former news anchor and two-time Republican nominee Paul Junge leading both the Republican primary and the general election. According to the UpOne results, Junge commands a large 53-11 percent advantage over his three Republican opponents combined, including Board of Education member Nikki Snyder who was disqualified for failing to submit the required number of nominating petition signatures.

For the general election, Junge leads the leading Democratic candidate, state Sen. Kristen McDonald-Rivet (D-Bay City), by a 42-39 percent clip. The Michigan primary is scheduled for Aug. 6. Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township) is retiring after serving what will be six full terms at the end of this Congress.

Running Against “No Name”;
Sen. Manchin Leaves Democrat Party; Masters Well Up in Arizona Poll; Boebert Re-Election Bid Struggling

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 3, 2024

Senate

Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen (D)

Generic Polls: Michigan and Nevada Incumbents vs. “No Name” — The Cook Political report released a series of US Senate surveys conducted by two Democratic polling firms, BSG and the Global Strategy Groups. Their Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, head-to-head results are consistent with other polling, i.e., the Democratic consensus candidate or incumbent has a significant lead, but the two where no Republican was named proved interesting.

In Michigan, the numbers testing consensus candidate Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) with an unnamed Republican, yield a 44-42 percent edge for the Democratic contender. This result is similar to data we have seen from other pollsters when a Republican candidate, usually former US Rep. Mike Rogers, is tested. Therefore, Republican chances here are legitimate.

In Nevada, however, the generic Republican does better than the identified Republican, usually Afghan War veteran Sam Brown. In the Cook Report’s survey, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leads a generic Republican 48-41 percent. This is a closer showing for the GOP than the most recent Rosen-Brown results.

The last two polls, from the Tyson Group (May 22-25; 601 likely Nevada voters; online) yields Sen. Rosen a 47-33 percent advantage. The Mainstreet Research study, for Florida Atlantic University (May 19-24; 494 likely Nevada voters; interactive voice response system & online), sees the senator recording a 48-37 percent split. Therefore, the fact that the generic Republican numbers are better than those for Brown indicates a greater need for increasing his familiarity among the voters.

West Virginia: Sen. Manchin Leaves Democrats — West Virginia no longer has a Democratic senator. Incumbent Joe Manchin, who is serving his final year in the Senate, announced he is leaving the Democratic Party to become an Independent. The senator says he can work better outside the political party structure to help bring the country closer together.

Though Sen. Manchin has already stated that he would not enter the governor’s race because of his support for the Democratic Party nominee, Huntington Mayor Steve Williams, speculation that he will make a ballot appearance before the Aug. 1 Independent and minor party candidate filing deadline continues. It’s likely that we will also hear about a prospective Manchin political move either in the governor or Senate race as the Sept. 17 write-in deadline approaches.

At the end of the day, the chances of Sen. Manchin running for any office this year are slim. Additionally, attempting to get in at such a late date would likely leave him in an underdog position in a three-way governor’s race, or against Gov. Jim Justice (R) for the Senate.

In any event, Sen. Manchin leaving the Democratic Party will change the Senate party division to 47D-49R-4I, with Sens. Angus King (I-ME), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and Manchin continuing to caucus with the Democrats. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) remains a true Independent but keeps her committee assignments through the Democratic Caucus.

House

AZ-8: Masters Well Up in New Poll — Fabrizio Lee & Associates (May 13-15; 400 likely AZ-8 Republican primary voters), polling for the Blake Masters campaign, finds their client leading attorney Abe Hamadeh and former US Rep. Trent Franks by a 28-16-14 percent margin in the Republican primary battle to succeed US Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) who is running for Maricopa County Supervisor. The poll suggests that the latest Masters negative ad attacking Hamadeh as a son of illegal immigrants, a supporter of abortion, and one who claimed that Israel was behind the 9-11 attacks is having an effect. A late January poll found the two tied at 24 percent support.

Masters, the 2022 US Senate nominee who lost 51-47 percent to Sen. Mark Kelly (D), has improved his favorability image according to the Fabrizio Lee response data. They show a 56:24 percent positive to negative Masters ratio. In 2022, Hamadeh ran a close race for attorney general, losing by a razor-thin 280 votes in the statewide contest. The July 30 Republican primary winner will easily take the 8th District seat in November.

CO-4: Rep. Boebert Not Home Free in General — A new Gravis Marketing poll released of Colorado’s 4th District (May 22-24; 423 likely CO-4 general election voters; online & text) finds retired Marine Corps officer Ike McCorkle (D) leading Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), 41-27 percent, in a hypothetical general election poll. This result is surprising in an eastern Colorado 4th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+26, which is the safest Republican seat in the Centennial State.

While Rep. Boebert’s move to the 4th District from the Western Slope 3rd CD that she currently represents appears to be working, since she won the party convention and has a huge resource lead on all of her GOP opponents, it appears she will have more work to do to convince a majority of the new district voters to support her in November. Of course, McCorkle, who has twice run for the seat, is no lock in the Democratic primary. He faces his own field of three other Democratic candidates.

The Colorado primary is June 25. A special election will also occur that day to fill the balance of Rep. Ken Buck’s (R) final term. The Republican special election nominee is former local mayor Greg Lopez who is not running for the regular term. The Democratic nominee, speechwriter Trish Calvarese, is a candidate in both the special and regular elections.