Tag Archives: former vice president Mike Pence

14th Amendment Ruling: Door Open

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 13, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump with former Vice President Mike Pence. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

January 6: Insurrection? — There has been an ongoing argument about whether former President Donald Trump’s actions surrounding the January 6 situation at the US Capitol constitutes “insurrection” as cited in the US Constitution’s 14th Amendment, and last week, a state Supreme Court issued a ruling.

At first glance, it appears that Trump won the Minnesota decision, but reading the chief justice’s decision suggests the issue is not yet firmly decided. Similar lawsuits are also alive in Colorado and Michigan.

The Minnesota State Supreme Court officially dismissed the lawsuit that was attempting to ban Trump from the state’s ballot. The high court ruled that his name be placed on the Republican primary ballot. Obviously, this part of the decision favors the former president.

The high court left open the possibility to hear, however, another lawsuit for the general election should Trump win the Republican presidential nomination. Some of the language associated with this narrative suggests that the ultimate decision might be different.

In dismissing the challenge, Minnesota Chief Justice Natalie Hudson wrote that the Republican primary is, “an internal party election to serve internal party purposes…[a]nd there is no statute that prohibits a major political party from placing on the presidential nomination primary ballot, or sending delegates to the national convention supporting, a candidate who is ineligible to hold office.”

The plaintiffs indicated they are “disappointed” with the ruling but underscored that the state Supreme Court has left the door open for a perhaps different ruling later in the cycle after Trump becomes the party nominee.
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Pence Suspends Campaign; Allred Leads in Texas Poll; Boebert Struggling in Colorado; Gimenez Jumping Into FL-28 Campaign; Georgia Governor Calls Special Session

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 31, 2023

President

Former Vice President Mike Pence / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Mike Pence: Suspends Campaign — At the Republican Jewish Coalition event in Las Vegas on Saturday, former Vice President Mike Pence, saying it is evident that “now is not my time” suspended his 2024 presidential campaign. Pence follows former US Rep. Will Hurd and commentator Larry Elder in dropping out of the presidential race. Upon his exit, Pence did not endorse another candidate as Hurd did, who now supports former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley; Elder is backing former President Donald Trump.

Senate

Texas: Rep. Allred Leads in Dem Primary Poll — YouGov, polling for the University of Texas, conducted a new statewide poll of the Lone Star electorate (Oct. 5-17; 1,200 registered Texas voters; 568 likely Republican primary voters; 409 likely Democratic primary voters; online; weighted sample). In testing the Senate Democratic primary, the pollsters found US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) leading state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio), 2022 congressional candidate Sherri Taylor, former Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez, and state Rep. Carl Sherman (D-Dallas) with a 21-10-3-2-2 percent, respectively. Nine additional names were also included on the ballot test question.

Though Rep. Allred, the Democratic establishment-backed candidate, has a lead in polling and certainly fundraising, the large field and his underwhelming early support total suggests it will be difficult for him, or any other candidate, to win the primary outright on March 5. Therefore, advancing to a May 28 runoff election between the top two Democratic primary finishers at this time appears a likely result.

House

CO-3: Boebert Primary Opponent Gaining Steam — Attorney Jeff Hurd, one of four Republicans challenging Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) for re-election in Colorado’s western slope 3rd District, has earned a major endorsement. Former two-term Gov. Bill Owens (R-1999-2007), the last Republican to win the office, announced his support for Hurd late last week.

Rep. Boebert will be hard-pressed to win re-election. Surviving in the closest campaign of 2022 (a 546-vote margin), her former opponent, ex-Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch (D), is returning for a re-match and has already raised a whopping $8.5 million toward his 2024 campaign. A strong Republican primary challenge from Hurd will now be interesting to watch. The Colorado primary is scheduled for June 25, 2024.

FL-28: Rep. Gimenez Leads in New Poll — Retired Navy Cmdr. Phil Ehr (D), who twice ran unsuccessfully for Florida’s northernmost district (FL-1; losing general election to Rep. Matt Gaetz in 2020; losing Democratic primary in 2018) is now attempting to win the state’s southernmost district, FL-28. A new Change Research poll, conducted for Ehr’s fledgling campaign (Oct. 13-17; 500 likely 2024 FL-28 general election voters; online) finds Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami) leading Ehr, 45-32 percent.

There has been speculation that Rep. Gimenez, a former Miami-Dade County mayor who was ineligible to seek re-election to a third term in 2020, may eschew re-election to the House in order to oppose the individual who succeeded him, Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava (D).

Rep. Gimenez first won his US House seat in 2020, defeating then-Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), who is now running for US Senate. He was re-elected in 2022 with a strong 64-36 percent victory margin. The 28th District, which stretches from Miami to Key West, is politically marginal. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a different partisan lean, however. Dave’s App finds the Democrats holding a 51.0 to 47.6 partisan advantage. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 12th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Georgia: Governor Calls Special Session — In order to comply with last week’s federal district judicial ruling that declared the Georgia congressional and state legislative maps as illegal racial gerrymanders, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has scheduled a special legislative session for Nov. 29 for purposes of drawing new congressional and legislative boundaries. Republicans may appeal the ruling, however, which could delay the process. Therefore, it remains unclear if any new map will take effect in time for the 2024 election.

Five Republicans Lead Biden; Pelosi to Return; Hudson Announces in MI-3; Cox Draws GOP Challenge in Utah

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 12, 2023

President

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley / Photo by Gage Skidmore

CNN Poll: Five Republicans Lead Biden — The new CNN national poll (conducted by the SSRS research company, CNN’s regular polling firm; Aug. 25-31; 1,503 US adults; live interview & text) found no fewer than five of the announced Republican presidential candidates holding small leads over President Joe Biden in general election ballot tests.

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley fared best, scoring a six-point advantage over the president. Two-point leaders included former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), and ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Former President Donald Trump held a one-point edge, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis tied Biden. The only Republican contender to fall behind Biden, and by only one point, is businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.

This poll, consistent with many other findings, again sees the Republicans doing better in a sample comprised of adults as opposed to registered or likely voters. This suggests the GOP is doing better than Democrats with non-voters, meaning the party will have to find a way to identify, register, and turn these habitual non-voters into participants.

House

CA-11: Rep. Pelosi to Return — Though many expected 83-year-old former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) to retire, she instead announced a re-election bid for a 20th term in Congress late last week. In her statement, Rep. Pelosi said, “our country needs America to show the world that our flag is still there, with liberty and justice for ALL. That is why I am running for reelection — and respectfully ask for your vote.” She will easily be renominated and re-elected next year.

MI-3: Ex-Judicial Candidate Announces for Congress — Attorney and Michigan Supreme Court judicial candidate Paul Hudson (R), who finished fourth in a field of five 2022 candidates, announced for Congress at the end of last week. He hopes to oppose freshman Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+3.

Last November, Scholten defeated Republican John Gibbs, 55-42 percent, after he upset one-term Rep. Peter Meijer (R) in the GOP primary. The Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission transformed what was a safe Republican 3rd District that originally elected Meijer to one that favors the Democrats.

Hudson is the third announced Republican candidate but is clearly the most credible. Should he prevail in the Aug. 6, 2024, GOP primary, assessments will be made as to whether he will become a top-tier challenger candidate. MI-3, however, is the type of politically marginal district that the GOP must win in 2024 in order to protect and enhance the party’s slim majority.

Governor

Utah: Gov. Cox Draws GOP Challenge — State Rep. Phil Lyman (R-Blanding), who hails from San Juan County in the far southeastern corner of the Beehive State, which includes the “Four Corners” where Utah, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico meet, announced he will challenge Republican Gov. Spencer Cox in next year’s Republican convention and potentially the state primary.

Lyman, a land rights radical, received a pardon from former President Trump after the government arrested him for his protest activities. Gov. Cox may not be particularly popular with the Republican base, so Lyman may have a chance to assemble a significant support coalition at the state convention.

Good News / Bad News for DeSantis; Pastor Withdraws in Arizona;
A Challenger in GA-13

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 25, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Photo by Gage Skidmore

Iowa: Selzer & Company Releases Survey — The Hawkeye State’s proven most accurate pollster, Selzer & Company, released a pre-debate poll in partnership with NBC News and the Des Moines Register newspaper. This research study provides some needed good news for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as his 66 percent positive rating is the best of any presidential candidate, although only one percentage point better than former President Donald Trump.

Trump still leads the first choice ballot test, however, with 42-19-9-6-6 percent split over Gov. DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), former Vice President Mike Pence, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, respectively. He tops Gov. DeSantis by only two points when first, second, and “considering” categories are added and assigned an aggregate point value. The Iowa Republican Caucus is scheduled for Jan. 15, 2024.

New Hampshire: DeSantis Drops to Fourth — The Granite State Echelon Insights data (8/15-17; 800 NH likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees former President Donald Trump leading the pack of candidates with a rather low support factor of 34 percent. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was second with 14 percent, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy follows in third position at 11 percent support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis posts a disappointing nine percent.

It is likely the New Hampshire primary will be scheduled for Jan. 23, eight days after the Iowa Caucus and 11 days before the South Carolina Democratic primary. The South Carolina Republicans will vote on Feb. 24, followed by the Michigan primary three days later. Super Tuesday is scheduled for March 5, 2024.

Senate

Nevada: Brown Leads in First Primary Poll — Public Opinion Strategies, polling for the Duty First Super PAC, an organization supporting candidate Sam Brown (R), released the result of their first Nevada Senate Republican primary survey (Public Opinion Strategies; Aug. 15-17; 500 likely Nevada Republican primary voters; live interview). The results find Brown, an Afghan War veteran, leading former state assemblyman and frequent candidate Jim Marchant, 33-15 percent, with five other announced candidates failing to reach even the three percent support plateau.

Brown, the 2022 US Senate candidate who raised over $4 million for his unsuccessful primary effort against former Attorney General Adam Laxalt and now has National Senate Republican Committee chairman Steve Daines’ endorsement, also leads in all segmentation divisions. Most importantly, of the respondents who are familiar with both Brown and Marchant, the former leads the latter by a strong 59-21 percent cut. The Nevada primary is scheduled for June 11, 2024. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in what promises to be a hotly contested general election campaign.

House

AZ-3: Laura Pastor (D) Withdraws — Phoenix City Councilwoman Laura Pastor (D), whose late father, Ed Pastor (D), represented Phoenix in the US House for 12 terms, announced that she is withdrawing from the open seat race to replace present incumbent Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix). Ms. Pastor says her withdrawal is due to a non-life threatening health issue, but one serious enough to force her from the campaign trail.

With Congressman Gallego running for Senate, the Democratic primary will determine the 3rd District’s next Representative. At this point, four Democrats have announced for the seat including Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari and former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates AZ-3, which is wholly contained within Maricopa County, as D+44. The Arizona primary is late, scheduled for August 6, 2024, so much can happen to change the race between now and the April 8, 2024, candidate filing deadline.

GA-13: Rep. David Scott Draws Dem Primary Challenger — Veteran Georgia US Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) surprised many by recently announcing he would run for a 12th term. Now, he has drawn a Democratic primary challenger. East Point Utility Board chairman Mark Herring did not attack Rep. Scott in his announcement address, only saying he is running to make a “positive difference.” Others are expected to join, thus creating a multi-candidate Democratic primary.

GA-13 is another district where winning the Democratic nomination is tantamount to election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+52. Rep. Scott faced three Democrats in the 2022 congressional primary, winning with 66 percent of the vote. In 2020, however, the outcome was much tighter as he avoided a runoff with just 52.9 percent, again opposite three opponents.

Republicans Debate but Biden Leads

The Fox News Republican debate stage in Milwaukee. / Fox News Photo

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 24, 2023

President

Republicans Debate: But What About Biden? — While last night’s Republican presidential debate featured a livelier discussion than many expected, a new national poll continues to find that President Joe Biden leads his Republican opposition despite a majority believing he is unfit for the job.

The GOP candidates sans Donald Trump gathered in Milwaukee, debating in the very arena that will host the 2024 Republican National Convention. Post-debate analysis seemed to indicate that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy performed best.

Perhaps the evening’s biggest surprise was who the other candidates attacked and who stood above the fray. Ramaswamy, moving up in the polls to the point where most Republican ballot tests see him in third place if not second, was the participant the others routinely targeted. The harshest attacks came from former Vice President Mike Pence and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley about his inexperience in the political arena and lack of foreign affairs knowledge, respectively.

While pre-debate predictions suggested that Gov. DeSantis would be under heavy attack, no one launched any verbal assault in his direction.

Yesterday, a new YouGov survey for the Economist publication was released. The international online pollster regularly polls for the Economist, featuring long and largely issue-based questionnaires.

This particular survey (Aug. 19-22; 1,500 US adults; 1,309 registered voters; online) again produces a familiar response pattern. President Biden scores poorly, but still leads the tested Republicans in general election ballot tests.

Overall, the Biden job approval ratio is 41:54 percent favorable to unfavorable. Pertaining to isolated issues, the president fails to score in positive territory on any tested question.

He records a 40:51 percent positive to negative ratios on jobs and the economy; 31:58 percent on immigration; 38:49 percent for his handling of foreign policy; 41:47 percent concerning national security; 40:45 percent in relation to education; 33:52 percent on crime; 32:49 percent about criminal justice reform; and 33:59 percent regarding inflation.

Yet, turning to a straight ballot test question when individually paired with former President Trump and Gov. DeSantis, the respondents still favor Biden for re-election.

In a YouGov national survey conducted just before the one analyzed above (Aug. 17-21; 1,665 US adults; 1,115 registered voters; online) the president scores a 47-41 percent split opposite Trump and posts a 45-40 percent lead over Gov. DeSantis.

This is consistent with the aforementioned survey that finds 44 percent of those respondents saying they would vote for the Democratic candidate and 40 percent for the eventual Republican nominee. On the generic congressional vote, the results are similar with 45 percent choosing the Democratic congressional candidate while 42 percent would support the Republican.

The presidential ballot test numbers are somewhat astonishing in that just 50 percent of questioned Democrats and Independents say they want to see President Biden renominated and only 26 percent of the entire polling sample believes Biden is “fit to serve another term as president.”

Furthermore, of those who feel the president is unfit for another four year term, 34.4 percent say he is “incompetent,” 27.6 percent believe he is “too old,” and 20.7 percent label him as “corrupt.”

Yet, with these negative impressions, a strong majority of Democrats and Independents (69 percent) would vote to renominate him in the party primary, and he records an average 5.5 percentage point edge over the two leading Republican nomination candidates.

These numbers, which are consistent when perusing various polls, suggest that the Republicans must develop a more compelling message if they hope to overcome the president’s current re-election advantage. This, despite majorities from the representative samples expressing negative opinions of the current incumbent’s performance.

Debate Prep; Poll Movement

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 23, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Tonight: GOP Debate — The first GOP presidential forum will be held tonight in Milwaukee, and it appears the Republican National Committee’s debate requirement criteria failed to meet its principal intended goal.

The chief reasons for instituting the debate qualification menu:

  • Reaching at least one percent support in a minimum of three post-July 1st polls with 800 or more respondents
  • Having 40,000 financial donors
  • Signing a pledge to support the eventual Republican nominee …

… among other party related items, became easier to obtain than initially anticipated. The purpose of having requirements was to keep most minor candidates out, thus limiting the participants to a small number of major candidates.

At this time, it appears at least eight candidates will be on stage Wednesday night. The national leader, former President Donald Trump, is saying he won’t attend and refuses to sign the loyalty pledge that irrespectively should eliminate him. Without Trump among the participants, however, the debate will lose much of its luster, not to mention ratings for host Fox News.

The eight who apparently have earned a podium spot are:

  • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)
  • Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)
  • Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND)
  • Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy
  • Former Vice President Mike Pence
  • Ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley
  • Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
  • Ex-Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson

Businessman Perry Johnson has also reportedly eclipsed the financial requirement but failed on the polling qualification.

Meeting the financial requirement became easier when Gov. Burgum, and then several others, ran an end-run around the requirement by concocting the idea of paying for $1 contributions and receiving a $20 gift card in exchange. The move was able to qualify several candidates who initially appeared incapable of pulling together such a donor portfolio within a limited time frame.

We are now seeing definitive movement in polling responses. While Trump continues to lead in all polls by substantial margins, the last five national polls have all found Ramaswamy finishing in either third or even second place in national Republican presidential polling. Simultaneously, Gov. DeSantis has lost considerable polling support.

The Fox News Poll (Aug. 11-14; 1,002 registered US voters; live interview), Quinnipiac University’s national survey (Aug. 11-14; 1,632 self-identified US registered voters; 681 Republican and Republican leaning voters; 666 Democratic and Democratic leaning primary voters; live interview), and Insider Advantage (Aug. 19-20; 750 likely US Republican primary voters; live interview) each project Ramaswamy as placing third behind Trump (Fox, 53 percent; Q-Poll, 57 percent; Insider, 51 percent) and Gov. DeSantis (Fox, 16 percent; Q-Poll, 18 percent; Insider, 10 percent).

The RMG Research and Emerson College surveys find Ramaswamy doing even better. In RMG’s latest poll (Aug. 11-14; 1,000 US registered voters; 229 likely Republican primary voters), though with a very small national GOP sample, Ramaswamy moves into second place with 13 percent compared to Gov. DeSantis’ eight percent. Trump tops the RMG poll with a whopping 60 percent support figure.

The Emerson College Poll (Aug. 16-17; 1,000 registered US voters; multiple sampling techniques), again found the self-identified Republicans favoring Trump who posted 56 percent support in this poll, while DeSantis and Ramaswamy each post 10 percent support figures. When compared to Emerson’s June national poll, Gov. DeSantis has dropped 11 percentage points and Ramaswamy has gained eight.

The polling bump that Ramaswamy demonstrates suggest that he may leave the first debate attracting even more support since he will have a more prominent podium position and, without Trump in the mix, has the opportunity to establish himself as the most talked-about candidate in the post-debate analysis. Conversely, with his stronger recent polling performance, the pressure to become a star participant tonight is significant.

Unusual NH Presidential Poll; Republican Primary Developing in Montana; VA-7 Candidates Coming Forward; NH Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 17, 2023

President

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

New Hampshire: New Poll; Unique Info — The new Emerson College survey (Aug. 9-11; 837 registered New Hampshire voters; interactive voice response system, text & online) provides new information not seen in any other similar study.

For example, the results find:

  • Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie moving into second place
  • No candidate but former President Donald Trump landing in double digits
  • Cornel West’s influence level is confirmed at four percent, which appears to come from President Joe Biden’s vote pool
  • Businessman Perry Johnson attracting enough support to be recorded on a poll
  • Former Vice President Mike Pence flirting with last place

It remains to be seen if this survey is an outlier, or if new trends are forming.

House

MT-2: Republican Primary Developing — We reported that Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen (R) filed a congressional exploratory committee in anticipation that Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) will run for the Senate. Now we see State Auditor Troy Downing (R) doing the same.

Both qualify that their interest in the 2nd District seat is present only if Rep. Rosendale foregoes re-election and formally enters the Senate race. Downing has run for Congress before. He entered the 2018 US Senate primary and placed third with 19.1 percent of the vote. Rosendale won the nomination with 33.8 percent, and then lost 50-47 percent to Sen. Jon Tester (D) in the associated general election.

VA-7: GOP Candidates Coming Forward — Political speculation suggesting that Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) will not seek re-election in order to prepare for a 2025 open governor’s race has already encouraged potential Republican candidates to come forward. Several are now testing the political waters for a 2024 run in the politically marginal 7th Congressional District.

Two military veterans — retired Navy SEAL and defense contractor Cameron Hamilton and Iraq War veteran Jon Myers, a retired Marine Corps officer — have both filed congressional campaign committees with the Federal Election Commission. Business consultant Bill Moher and Army veteran Shaliek Tarpley are previously announced Republican candidates.

Should Rep. Spanberger retire, we can expect a very crowded Republican and Democratic primary season. Republicans will likely hold either a nominating convention or what they term as a “firehouse primary” (where only a few polling places are open throughout the sprawling district), while Democrats typically hold a traditional primary. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates VA-7 as a highly competitive D+2.

Governor

New Hampshire: Ayotte Leads in Early Poll — Former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is starting her campaign for governor with a lead according to a new Emerson College poll (Aug. 9-11; 837 registered New Hampshire voters; interactive voice response system, text & online). According to the results, Ayotte would lead Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) 46-37 percent, and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D) by a larger 47-34 percent span.

The poll did not test the Republican primary. At this point, former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse is opposing Ayotte for the Republican nomination and others are expected to enter. Incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is not seeking a fifth term.