Tag Archives: Gov. Spencer Cox

Utah GOP Nominating Convention Upends Establishment; After Just Filing for FL-8 Race, Posey Withdraws; Rehberg Trails in MT-2 Poll

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 29, 2024

States

Riverton, Utah Mayor Trent Staggs

Utah: GOP Nominating Convention Upends Establishment — After being booed during his speech to the Republican nominating convention delegates on Saturday, Gov. Spencer Cox fell to state Rep. Phil Lyman (R-Blanding) by a whopping 67-33 percent vote. To qualify for the ballot in a statewide race, a candidate needed to attract at least 40 percent of the delegate vote. While the governor did not qualify through the convention process, he had filed to get the necessary 28,000 valid petition signatures prior to the party assembly to guarantee his ballot position in the June 25 Republican primary.

In the Senate race, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs rode former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, which was announced just before the convention began. Staggs proved himself the delegates’ favorite with a 70-30 percent victory over Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo).

The vote makes Mayor Staggs the only candidate qualifying through the convention process. Rep. Curtis submitted the requisite number of petitions, so he, too, will be on the primary ballot. Joining them are a pair of others qualifying via petition, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman Jason Walton. Attorney Brent Orrin Hatch, son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch, who fell short of the 28,000 signature requirement, did not receive 40 percent delegate support. Therefore, he is eliminated from further competition.

In the House races, both Reps. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) and Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) finished second to a Republican opponent but cleared the 40 percent threshold. Rep. Moore had previously qualified through petition, but Rep. Maloy was a “convention only” candidate. Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City) was renominated by acclamation. In the open 3rd CD, the only candidate to win the delegate support is state Sen. Mike Kennedy (R-American Fork). Qualifying through petition are State Auditor John “Frugal” Dougall, Roosevelt Mayor J.R. Bird, and businessman Case Lawrence. The Utah primary will be conducted on June 25. The eventual GOP nominee in all races will be favored in the general election.

House

FL-8: Rep. Posey Withdraws — After filing for re-election, eight-term Florida US Rep. Bill Posey (R-Rockledge) announced that he is withdrawing from the race.

Immediately, and obviously after receiving a tip from the congressman, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R) filed his own federal campaign committee. Since Florida does not extend candidate filing time when the incumbent does not seek re-election, Haridopolos is clearly the front runner to succeed the 30-year office holder. In addition to his 16 years in Congress, Rep. Posey served another 16 years in the legislature, eight in each house.

Attorney Joe Babits and technology company executive John Hearton, both viewed as minor candidates, are the only other individuals to have declared their candidacies. For the Democrats, West Melbourne City Councilman Don McDow is favored for the party nomination over attorney Sandy Kennedy.

Florida’s 8th District, that stretches from Titusville to Vero Beach on the Atlantic Coast, is safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+23. Former President Trump carried the district, 58-41 percent, in 2020. The Posey retirement means there are now 52 open seats headed into the next election, with 26 coming from the Democratic Conference versus the Republicans’ 25. One seat is newly created in Alabama.

MT-2: Ex-Rep. Rehberg Trails in New Poll — Guidant Polling & Strategy just released the results of their recent Montana Republican primary congressional poll (April 14-17; 400 likely MT-2 Republican primary voters). The data find State Auditor Troy Downing (R) leading former Congressman Denny Rehberg and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, 38-26-10 percent.

Ex-Rep. Rehberg, who represented the at-large district for 12 years after serving six years as lieutenant governor, is being heavily outspent. Downing, through March 31, had spent just over $630,000 compared to Rehberg’s $7,300. The former congressman then infused his own campaign treasury with a loan of $300,000.

The winner of the June 4 primary election will succeed retiring Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) in the safely Republican eastern Montana seat.

Trump Leads in All But One Swing State; Utah GOP Nominating Convention Saturday; Kansas State House Leader Nixes Run

THE SWING STATES: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 26, 2024

President

Bloomberg Swing State Polls: Trump Leading in All But One — Bloomberg News, in partnership with the Morning Consult data organization, conducted presidential polls in all seven of the key swing states during the April 8-13 period. The cumulative data produced very good news for former President Donald Trump, as he is projected to lead in six of the seven states in both head-to-head pairings with President Joe Biden and when the independent and minor candidates are added to the polling questionnaire.

In the one-on-one polling series, Trump leads Biden in a range from one (Pennsylvania) to 10 (North Carolina) percentage points. Only in Michigan does President Biden have an advantage (+2). When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) and the minor party candidates are added, which is the more realistic ballot test, Trump’s advantage either holds or grows. Under this scenario, his advantage stretches from one (Pennsylvania) to a whopping 14 percentage points (Nevada). Again, under this configuration, President Biden would lead only in Michigan (+3).

This polling series represents Trump’s strongest cumulative swing state showing of 2024. The polled states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Senate

Utah: GOP Nominating Convention Tomorrow — Utah Republican delegates convene tomorrow at the Salt Palace Convention Center in Salt Lake City to consider a large ticket of primary endorsements, the most important of which are for the open US Senate seat and governor.

In Utah, candidates can qualify for the ballot in one of two ways. The first is to obtain 40 percent of the delegate vote at the state convention. Doing so guarantees a primary ballot line for no more than two candidates. The second way is to petition onto the ballot, which means collecting 28,000 valid registered party members’ signatures for a statewide candidacy. For a US House race, the required signature number is 7,000 within the particular district.

Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman and podcast host Jason Walton have already qualified for the US Senate Republican primary ballot via petition signatures. Therefore, regardless of whether these men receive the 40 percent delegate support necessary to advance to the primary in tomorrow’s convention, they have each secured a ballot line. Attorney Brett Orrin Hatch, son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch (R), submitted petitions but is approximately 7,000 signatures short of qualifying. Thus, he can access the ballot only through the delegate process tomorrow.

In the governor’s race, the only candidate qualifying through petition is incumbent Gov. Spencer Cox. For the US House, 1st District Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) is the only incumbent to qualify through petition signatures. The state’s other incumbents, Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) and Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City), will qualify through the delegate process. No opponent to either Reps. Maloy or Owens has submitted petition signatures.

House

KS-2: Majority Leader Won’t Run for House — Despite indicating interest in running for Congress when Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) announced his retirement last week, Kansas state House Majority Leader Chris Croft (R-Overland Park) yesterday issued a statement saying he will not run.

Croft’s decision is principally due to the fact that his home Overland Park area is fully contained in the 3rd District, thus giving him very little in the way of a political base in District 2. A crowded Republican field is expected to form before the June 1 candidate filing deadline. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of R+21, the Republican primary winner will become the definitive favorite in the general election.

Haley’s Good News & Bad News; Another House Retirement; Strong MI-8 Candidates; Utah’s Gov. Cox Draws Strong Opponent

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 9, 2024

President

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Primary Polling: NH Closing; SC Not So — Republican presidential contender Nikki Haley, the former UN ambassador and ex-South Carolina governor, saw some good and bad news in recently released polling. The American Research Group (Dec. 27-Jan. 3; 600 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; live interview) sees former President Donald Trump maintaining only a 33-29 percent edge over Ms. Haley.

This is the closest New Hampshire survey result published so far during the election campaign. ARG found that Haley is gaining because of her support from non-affiliated voters who can vote in New Hampshire partisan primaries. Among only registered Republicans, Trump leads Haley, 42-31 percent. Among the non-affiliateds who say they will vote in the GOP primary, Haley holds a 42-36 percent edge, thus explaining her closing ability.

However, in Haley’s home state of South Carolina, the results are much different. The latest Emerson College survey (Jan. 2-3; 584 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Trump continuing to hold a commanding 54-25 percent lead over Haley. With Trump poised for strong victories in the pre-Super Tuesday states of Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, and Michigan, even a strong New Hampshire performance for Haley will not likely give her enough of a boost to overtake the former president for the party nomination.

House

CO-5: Rep. Doug Lamborn (R) to Retire — Nine-term Colorado US Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs) who has typically repelled serious primary challengers throughout his 18-year career in Congress, announced over the weekend that he will retire when the current Congress ends. Lamborn is the 42nd House member not seeking re-election and the 18th Republican. He is the third of Colorado’s seven incumbents who will leave a seat open.

The Centennial State’s 5th District is anchored in the city of Colorado Springs and fully contained within El Paso County. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CO-5 as R+18. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the 74th most vulnerable in the Republican Conference. Therefore, the eventual new Republican nominee will be heavily favored to hold the seat in the November election.

MI-8: Strong Candidates Announce — With Michigan Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township) retiring, that leaves a politically marginal seat open, and both parties are filing strong candidates. National Democrats have successfully recruited who they believe is their strongest prospect, state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City). Also in the Democratic primary race are Michigan State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh, Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley, and non-profit executive and former Genesee County Democratic Party chairman Dan Moilanen. Therefore, we will see a very active Aug. 6 Democratic primary to determine the party nominee.

Republicans also now have a candidate with a well known name. State Rep. Bill G. Schuette (R-Midland) is the son of former attorney general, appellate judge, US congressman, and state Sen. Bill Schuette, announced his congressional candidacy late last week. Also in the Republican primary is the twice nominated Paul Junge.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MI-8 as R+1. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 11th most vulnerable in the Democratic Conference. Now as an open seat, the vulnerability becomes even more pronounced. This and the adjacent open MI-7 will be two of the most hotly contested congressional districts in the country. The 8th District is anchored in the Flint-Midland-Saginaw area. It contains Genesee, Saginaw, and Bay Counties, with parts of Midland and Tuscola counties.

Governor

Utah: Gov. Cox Draws Second Credible Primary Opponent — Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R), seeking a second term, will now face another Republican primary opponent. Former Utah Republican Party chairman Carson Jorgensen announced his gubernatorial candidacy at the end of last week. State Rep. Phil Lyman (R-Blanding) declared his candidacy in late October.

Although Gov. Cox — who has alienated the conservative base from time to time during his tenure — could have trouble in the Republican nominating convention, he would be favored to win a primary election. If both challengers qualify for the Republican primary, having multiple opponents will help the governor clinch the party nomination.

Pre-Christmas Poll Favors Schiff & Garvey; Potential New Utah Senate Candidate; Fong Reinstated in California Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 4, 2024

Senate

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) / Former baseball great Steve Garvey (R)

California: Pre-Christmas Poll Favors Schiff & Garvey — A new survey, this one from Politico/Morning Consult (Dec. 15-19; 858 likely California jungle primary voters; online with leaners), finds US Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) posting his largest polling lead over the large multi-party candidate field and is the second to show retired baseball great Steve Garvey (R) claiming second position.

The Morning Consult data records Rep. Schiff at 28 percent and Garvey following with 19 percent. If this trend were to continue, Schiff and Garvey would advance into the post-March 5 general election. US Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) trail with 17 and 14 percent, respectively. If this poll were the final vote, both Reps. Porter and Lee would be eliminated from further competition.

Utah: Rep. Curtis Poised to Enter Senate Race — Utah political reports are suggesting that four-term US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) will imminently join the open US Senate race with the hope of succeeding retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R). Originally saying he would not run for the Senate, the congressman is apparently on the brink of changing his mind as he sees the candidate field develop.

With several key Republicans such as Gov. Spencer Cox declining to run for the federal post, and no other GOP House member entering to date, Curtis now believes he would have a strong chance of winning the party primary. Looking at the field, the strongest contender appears to be former state House Speaker Brad Wilson. Utah’s candidate filing period expires on Jan. 8, so decisions will now be made quickly.

Should Rep. Curtis run for the Senate, he will likely petition onto the ballot. When he won his special congressional election in 2017, he was not the choice of the local Republican nominating convention but did win the special primary election. Prior to serving in Congress, Rep. Curtis was twice elected as Provo’s mayor.

House

CA-20: Fong Reinstated to Cong Ballot — Reversing the California Secretary of State’s ruling, a California Superior Court judge ruled that state Assemblyman Vincent Fong (R-Bakersfield) can run for the open 20th Congressional District seat that Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) has vacated. Because Fong had filed and been qualified as a candidate for re-election to the assembly, the secretary of state ruled that he could not enter the regular congressional election campaign after McCarthy announced his intention to retire. Fong challenged the administrative ruling and will now become a congressional candidate.

Also in the regular jungle primary are Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux, five other Republicans, two Democrats, and two Independents. CA-20, carrying a R+31 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization, is the safest Republican seat in California. A special election to fill the balance of the current term should be called now that McCarthy has officially left office.

McCarthy’s Resignation; NY-16 Primary Challenge; NY-17 Primary Challenge Avoided; Disgraced Nashville Mayor Now in House Race; Utah Challenger Emerges

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 8, 2023

House

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R)

CA-20: Ex-Speaker McCarthy to Resign — With the California candidate filing deadline looming today, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) announced that he will not seek re-election to a 10th term and is leaving Congress at the end of the year. The outcome is not surprising, and one many expected since his ouster as House Speaker two months ago. The McCarthy decision means 35 House seats are now open with seven coming from California alone.

McCarthy’s Bakersfield-anchored district will remain safely in Republican hands, but the question remains as to whether a special election will be called. When the most recent California seat became vacant — San Diego’s Duncan D. Hunter resignation in early 2020 — Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) simply didn’t schedule a special election and the seat remained vacant for the better part of a year.

Since Newsom previously got away with this course of action, it is quite possible he will attempt to again hold the McCarthy seat in abeyance, particularly since the Republican majority is dwindling with the expulsion of Rep. George Santos and Rep. Bill Johnson’s (R-OH) pending resignation.

California’s 20th District draws a R+31 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization and is the safest Republican seat in this heavily blue state. Former President Donald Trump posted a 61-34 percent victory margin here over Joe Biden in 2020. For the regular election, seeing a double-Republican runoff evolve from the all-party jungle primary is a distinct possibility. The two leading potential contenders appear to be state Sen. Shannon Graves (R-Bakersfield) and Assemblyman Vincent Fong (R-Bakersfield).

NY-16: Primary Challenge Now Official — Earlier in the week, we reported that Westchester County Executive and former state legislator George Latimer had filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission and was expected to officially declare his Democratic primary candidacy against two-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers). Wednesday, Latimer made his official announcement.

Several key primaries are evolving around the nation, and this challenge is a serious effort. Bowman, himself, came to Congress through unseating an incumbent, veteran Rep. Eliot Engel, in the 2020 Democratic primary, and now the tables may turn in 2024.

NY-17: Rep. Lawler Avoids Primary Challenge — Former Trump White House aide Bill Maloney, who was considering challenging freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) because he believed the congressman was not demonstrating sufficient loyalty toward Trump, now says he will not run. Rep. Lawler is likely to find himself in a very difficult general election campaign, thus making it necessary for him to have an uncontested primary campaign.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-17 as D+7. The district, however, will likely change after a congressional map redraw, so it is likely this Hudson Valley seat will become even more Democratic. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as sixth most vulnerable in the Republican Conference, and is likely to become even more competitive post-redistricting.

TN-7: Disgraced Nashville Mayor Announces Against Rep. Green — Former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry (D), who resigned her position in disgrace as part of a plea deal for misuse of public funds to facilitate an extra-marital affair with a member of her security detail, on Wednesday announced that she will enter the 7th Congressional District Democratic primary. Should she win the nomination election, Barry would then challenge three-term Tennessee US Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville), chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee.

CD-7 is a safely Republican western Tennessee district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+21. Former President Donald Trump carried TN-7 with a 56-41 percent victory margin. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 76th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Rep. Green was re-elected in 2022 with a 60-38 percent victory margin.

Governor

Utah: Another Gubernatorial Primary Challenger Emerges — Gov. Spencer Cox (R) is favored to win a second term next year, but he will first have to out poll now two intra-party opponents. In late October, state Rep. Phil Lyman (R-Blanding) announced his Republican primary challenge to Gov. Cox, and this week, state Rep. Brian King (R-Salt Lake City) also entered the race.

While Gov. Cox would be favored against multiple candidates on a primary ballot, the candidates will first enter the Utah Republican Party endorsement convention, which can send as many as two candidates to the primary ballot. Not entering the convention, which may be the route Gov. Cox chooses, a candidate would need to recruit 28,000 valid petition signatures in order to compete in the party primary. Expect Gov. Cox to prevail in the nomination process and for re-election next November.

Former Congressman Announces Comeback Attempt; Reps Buck, Granger to Retire; Utah Governor Challenged for Renomination

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 3, 2023

House

Former Arizona Congressman Trent Franks (R) announces comeback attempt. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

AZ-8: Former Congressman Announces Comeback Attempt — Trent Franks (R), who was elected eight times to the House but was forced to resign when it was discovered that he was asking two female staff members to be surrogate mothers for he and his wife, announced that he will enter the open 8th District race next year with the goal of succeeding his successor. Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria), who won the seat in a 2018 special election after Franks’ resignation, is retiring.

Franks’ reappearance in Arizona politics is a surprise, and he is certainly no lock to win the August 2024 Republican primary. Already, nine other Republicans have declared their candidacies, including 2022 US Senate nominee Blake Masters, state House Speaker Ben Toma (R-Peoria), 2022 Attorney General nominee Abe Hamadeh, and state Sen. Anthony Kern (R-Paradise).

CO-4: Rep. Ken Buck (R) to Retire — Five-term Colorado US Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor) announced Wednesday that he will not seek re-election next year. Saying, “I always have been disappointed with our inability in Congress to deal with major issues and I’m also disappointed that the Republican Party continues to rely on this lie that the 2020 election was stolen & rely on the 1/6 narrative.” Rep. Buck has been an outspoken critic of his party in recent weeks, and his retirement is unsurprising. He had been rumored to be looking at potential media commentator openings as a Republican on the liberal CNN and MSNBC channels.

The 4th District, which covers most of eastern Colorado, is the strongest Republican seat in the state. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+26. Former President Donald Trump carried the seat with a 58-40 percent margin in 2020. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks CO-4 as the 115th most vulnerable seat in the 222-member Republican Conference.

TX-12: Rep. Kay Granger (R) to Retire — The third US House member to announce a retirement in the past two days is House Appropriations Committee chair Kay Granger (R-TX). She also announced Wednesday that she will not seek a 15th term next year. Before winning the 1996 congressional election, Granger served as mayor of Ft. Worth. Rep. Granger’s announcement follows those of Reps. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) and Ken Buck (R-CO), who also will retire at the end of the current Congress.

The 12th District is anchored in the city of Ft. Worth, which covers approximately 31 percent of Tarrant County, and then stretches west to annex about 80 percent of Parker County. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-12 as R+24. Former President Trump carried the district with a 58-40 percent margin in 2020. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks TX-12 as the 108th most vulnerable district in the Republican Conference.

There are now 24 open seats in the next election. Of those, 15 are currently Democratic held, eight are Republican, and one is an Alabama seat that the new redistricting plan created.

Governor

Utah: Gov. Cox (R) Challenged for Renomination — State representative and former San Juan County Commissioner Phil Lyman (R-Blanding), who was jailed at one point for misdemeanor trespassing (in relation to a land use protest) and includes his mugshot in his campaign announcement video, will challenge incumbent Republican Gov. Spencer Cox in next year’s party nominating convention, and possibly the June 25 primary.

In Utah, the party convention can send two candidates directly to the primary election with at least 40 percent delegate support. Candidates can also petition onto the ballot by obtaining 28,000 registered voters’ signatures. Since Lyman is campaigning against Gov. Cox from the right, he may be able to reach the 40 percent plateau in a convention where the vast majority of delegates are to the right of the incumbent. Gov. Cox should still be favored to prevail in a primary fight, however, as well as in the general election.

Pennsylvania’s McCormick Announces for Senate; Retired Police Chief Craig to Announce Candidacy; Anti-Impeachment Rep. May Resign; IL-17 Battle; No Re-Election Run for Rep. Baird; Primary Clash Evolving in Maine; Chaffetz Declines to Run

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 25, 2023

Senate

Pennsylvania: Republicans Get Their Man — David McCormick, the former CEO of the Bridgewater Associates hedge fund who lost to Dr. Mehmet Oz by just 950 votes in the 2022 Pennsylvania US Senate race, announced late last week that he is returning next year to challenge Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). Though he faces an uphill battle, McCormick’s presence gives the Republicans a credible candidate with whom to challenge the three-term incumbent.

Though Pennsylvania decidedly leans Democratic, it is one of the top targeted states in the presidential election. While that will mean more focus on former President Donald Trump throughout the general election campaign, it also means that McCormick will be the beneficiary of more party resources being spent on organization and voter turnout operations. At this point, Sen. Casey must be rated a clear favorite for re-election, but this contest is now a race to watch.

Retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R)

Michigan: Another Candidate to Announce — According to the Politico publication, retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) will announce his US Senate candidacy at the beginning of October. Craig had filed to run for governor in 2022 but failed to return the proper number of valid petition signatures, thus disqualifying him.

Assuming this report is true, Craig will enter an Aug. 6 Republican primary against the favorite for the nomination, former Congressman Mike Rogers, and Michigan Board of Education member Nikki Snyder who was the first candidate to announce. The winner will then likely challenge Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) who is favored to win the Democratic nomination.

House

CO-4: Rep. Buck Faces Potential GOP Challenge, May Resign — Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor), who has been critical of the House Republican leadership for moving to an impeachment hearing against President Joe Biden, may resign his seat. Apparently, he is talking to both MSNBC and CNN about developing a contractual relationship.

Additionally, as a direct result of his latest Republican-on-Republican attacks, Rep. Buck may have drawn a potential GOP primary challenger. State Rep. Richard Holtorf (R-Akron) filed a congressional exploratory committee to assess his chances against Rep. Buck in the expansive eastern Colorado district. The 4th District is safely Republican (R+26 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization) and encompasses most of the Colorado territory north and east of the Denver metropolitan area.

IL-17: Former Local Judge to Run for Congress — Former Circuit Judge Joseph McGraw (R), who resigned from the bench in July igniting speculation that he would run for Congress, has filed an organizational committee with the Federal Election Commission. He would join a field that includes businessman Ray Estrada and farmer Scot Crowl. The eventual Republican nominee will then challenge freshman Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) in a heavily gerrymandered district that begins in the city of Rockford, meanders west to capture the Illinois side of the Quad Cities, then back east to the cities of Galesburg, Peoria, and Bloomington.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+4. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 51.1D – 44.0R. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks IL-17 as the 26th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic conference. Republican Esther Joy King twice ran here, losing a competitive 2022 battle to Sorensen by a 52-48 percent count.

IN-4: Rep. Baird Reportedly Won’t Run for Re-Election — The local Indiana blog Howey Politics is reporting that US Rep. Jim Baird (R-Greencastle) is planning to retire in 2024 but may time his announcement to block other Republicans from challenging his son, state Rep. Beau Baird (R). The 4th District, located north and west of Indianapolis, is safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+33. The Daily Kos House overview ranks IN-4 as the 59th safest seat in the Republican conference.

Now that local media reports are already covering this story, the element of surprise has been lost. Therefore, potential candidates wanting to run will now be ready to file in case Rep. Baird does not.

ME-2: Republican Primary Developing — Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which has delivered an electoral vote to Donald Trump both in 2016 and 2020, is rated as the second-most vulnerable seat in the Democratic conference. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+10 yet, and largely thanks to Maine’s Ranked Choice Voting system, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) has won three consecutive elections here.

With former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) out of the 2024 picture, Republican leaders were pleased to see state representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R-Fort Kent) come forward last week to declare his congressional candidacy. Now, Theriault has company. Fellow state Rep. Michael Soboleski (R-Phillips) declared his candidacy, thus creating a Republican nomination battle in the June 18, 2024, state primary. Regardless of who wins the party nomination, ME-2 will be a major GOP target race next year.

Governor

Utah: Ex-Rep Chaffetz Not Likely to Run — Former congressman and Fox News contributor Jason Chaffetz (R) late last week ruled out challenging Gov. Spencer Cox in next year’s Republican primary and also said, while not closing the door on running for Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R) open seat, that the Senate race is “not something I’m actively pursuing.” The political move that he finds most attractive at present is entering the open 2028 gubernatorial campaign when Gov. Cox will be ineligible to seek re-election.