Tag Archives: Candidate filing

Independent Candidates Draw More Votes From Biden; CA-20 Top Contender Disqualified; Another House Retirement; North Carolina Candidate Filing Closes

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Harvard-Harris Poll: Independents Draw More Votes From Biden — Originally when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had announced as an Independent for the office of President of the United States, the subsequent early polls found him taking slightly more support from former president Donald Trump than President Joe Biden. Recently, that trend has reversed. The new Harvard University survey that The Harris Poll and HarrisX conducted (Dec. 13-14; 2,034 US registered voters; online) is now typical. They find that Kennedy and the other minor party/independent candidates are apparently siphoning away more support from President Biden than other future potential general election opponents.

In the isolated Biden-Trump ballot test, Trump would lead 52-48 percent. Adding just RFK Jr., the Trump advantage expands to 44-36-20 percent. A third ballot test, that included Biden, Trump, Kennedy, Independent candidate Dr. Cornel West, and likely Green Party nominee Jill Stein, saw a 43-35-17-2-2 percent division.

House

CA-20: Top Contender Disqualified — Because state Assemblyman Vincent Fong (R-Bakersfield) had filed for re-election for that seat, and California’s secretary of state had officially accepted his documents, the state’s chief elections officer ruled on Friday that Fong is ineligible to switch to the open congressional race. Therefore, despite his endorsement from outgoing Congressman Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield), Fong will apparently not be on the congressional ballot.

This leaves the GOP field to Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux, who is president of the California Sheriffs Association, businessman David Giglio, businessman and former congressional candidate Matt Stoll, and casino owner Kyle Kirkland.

The 20th District is the safest Republican seat in the California delegation. Seeing the all-party jungle primary produce a double Republican general election appears a distinct possibility.

GA-3: Another House Retirement — Georgia US Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-The Rock/ Carrollton) announced on Friday that he will not seek a fifth term in the House, saying that “Georgia is a special place, and it’s calling us home.” Ferguson, first elected in 2016, served two terms as the Republican Chief Deputy Whip and is a member of the House Ways & Means Committee. He averaged 66.9 percent of the vote in his four successful congressional campaigns.

The 3rd District hugs the Alabama border in western Georgia, and lies among the cities of Atlanta, Columbus, and Macon. GA-3 is the third-strongest Republican congressional seat in the Peach State. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as R+38, while the Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as the 51st safest in the Republican Conference. Donald Trump defeated President Biden here 64-34 percent in the 2020 election. Rep. Ferguson’s successor will be decided in the Republican nomination process. GA-3 becomes the 37th open US House seat headed to the next election.

North Carolina: Candidate Filing Closes — The candidate filing period for North Carolina’s March 5 primary closed on Friday, and we now see a slate of contenders in the newly drawn congressional seats. The state also features an open governor’s race, but no US Senate campaign in 2024.

Republicans filed contenders in all 14 Tar Heel State CDs, but two Republicans will run unopposed unless the Democrats can petition a candidate on the ballot. Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville) in the 3rd District and the eventual nominee in the Greensboro anchored 6th (Rep. Kathy Manning-D retiring), saw no Democratic candidate file.

One of the most competitive seats for the general election appears to be District 1, where freshman Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) sees his new CD yield only a 50-49 percent victory for President Biden in 2020, though Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a slightly more favorable Democratic overall partisan lean, 50.9D – 47.7R. The likely Republican nominee here is former congressional candidate Sandy Smith.

Hotly contested Republican primaries will occur in the open 6th, 8th (Rep. Dan Bishop-R running for attorney general), 10th (Rep. Patrick McHenry-R retiring), 13th (Rep. Wiley Nickel-D retiring), and 14th (Rep. Jeff Jackson-D running for Attorney General) districts. Under North Carolina voting laws, a runoff occurs only if a candidate fails to break 30 percent of the original primary vote.

Ricketts Selected to Replace Sen. Sasse; CA-30 Race Already Rolling; Elvis’s Cousin Announces for Gov.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 13, 2023

Senate

Former Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts selected to replace Sen. Ben Sasse.

Nebraska: Gov. Pillen Tabs ex-Gov. Pete Ricketts for Vacant Senate Seat — Sen. Ben Sasse (R) has officially resigned his seat in order to assume his new duties as president of the University of Florida, and new Gov. Jim Pillen (R), as expected, chose former Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) as the interim replacement. Ricketts will serve until the next general election in 2024. The seat is next in-cycle for a six-year term in 2026.

Gov. Pillen wanted to pick a senator who would commit to serving a long while in order to build seniority for the state to compliment two-term Sen. Deb Fischer (R) who is seeking re-election in 2024. Therefore, Ricketts committed to running both in 2024 and 2026. Senate-Designate Ricketts will be sworn into office when the Senate next convenes on Jan. 23.

House

CA-30: House Race Already Rolling — California Rep. Katie Porter’s (D-Irvine) move to declare for the Senate even before incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) announces her retirement has already set off a chain of reaction. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) says she will announce once Sen. Feinstein makes her retirement public. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) looks to be doing the same. In anticipation of the latter jumping into the Senate race, Los Angeles School Board member Nick Melvoin (D) announced yesterday that he will run for Schiff’s House seat.

Governor

Louisiana: Rep. Graves Considering Gov Race — Saying, “I think that the sentiment out there in the public for another candidate in this race is absolutely extraordinary,” Louisiana US Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) confirmed that he is still considering whether to run for governor later this year, and promises a decision in the next few days. The open gubernatorial field has changed drastically with both Sen. John Kennedy (R) and Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser (R) declining to become candidates.

Graves was first elected to the House in 2018 and easily re-elected in 2020 and 2022 with 71 and 80 percent of the vote, respectively. He would not have to risk his congressional seat to run for governor in this odd-numbered year election. Attorney General Jeff Landry (R), state Treasurer John Schroder (R), and Department of Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D) presently appear to be the leading contenders.

The candidate filing deadline is not until Aug. 10. The jungle primary is scheduled for Oct. 14. If no one receives majority support in the initial vote, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 18 runoff election. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Mississippi: Elvis’s Cousin Announces for Governor — Mississippi Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley (D), a second cousin to the late music legend Elvis Presley, announced that he will compete for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in a quest to challenge Gov. Tate Reeves (R) later this year. Presley was elected to the Public Service Commission in 2007 after serving seven years as mayor of Nettleton, a town of approximately 2,000 residents. He is the first person to become an official 2023 opponent to Gov. Reeves. Secretary of State Michael Watson is a potential Republican primary challenger.

Candidate filing closes Feb. 1. The statewide primary is set for Aug. 8 with a runoff date on Aug. 29 for those races where no candidate achieves majority support in the initial vote. The general election is Nov. 7.

Notable Candidate Filings

By Jim Ellis

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) faces little in the way of strong competition in 2022.

March 15, 2022 — Candidate filing closed in three states on Friday — California, Georgia, and Idaho — and we see some highly competitive primary and general election campaigns occurring in each.

Despite 26 candidates filing against him, appointed California Sen. Alex Padilla (D) has done a good job of securing his Democratic base. As a result, he faces no serious opponent. The only way Sen. Padilla would lose in the state’s jungle primary system is if another strong Democrat surfaced and forced him into a double-Democratic general election. No such individual filed. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) also faces little in the way of strong competition even though he has 25 opponents.

The Georgia governor’s race features the most important May 24 primary campaign, a Republican battle between Gov. Brian Kemp and former US Sen. David Perdue. Three minor candidates are also on the ballot, and they could be a factor to force a runoff if the Kemp-Perdue race evolves into an even contest. In that scenario, a secondary election on July 26 would occur should both Kemp and Perdue be stopped short of 50 percent support.

Former Georgia state House Minority Leader and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. The state’s US Senate contest is already winnowing down to a battle between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and retired pro football player Herschel Walker (R).

In Idaho, Gov. Brad Little faces a Republican primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin, who has former President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Sen. Mike Crapo has four Republican primary opponents but is in strong shape for both re-nomination and re-election to a fifth term.

In the House races, veteran Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) will face a familiar foe in the Republican primary. Bryan Smith, who challenged the congressman in the 2014 Republican primary and attracted some national attention and support before falling 62-38 percent, returns for a re-match eight years after their original political battle.

Back in California in the US House races, it appears there are seven districts that will host competitive general election campaigns and many more that could send a pair of the same party’s members to the November election from the June 7 jungle primary.

Only one of the projected partisan general election battles comes in an open seat. The 3rd District, which begins in the Sacramento suburbs and stretches down along the Nevada border all the way into southern California, will yield a competitive Republican battle between state Assemblyman Kevin Kiley (R-Granite Bay) and Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones for one of the general election finalist positions. The state Democratic Party has endorsed physician Kermit Jones. The new 3rd, where Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) could have run, is rated an R+8 district.

Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) will likely face San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti (R) in the D+8 District 9 that retiring Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Stockton) currently holds.

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