Category Archives: States

Presidential Trends

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 28, 2023

President

Are Trump and Biden locks for their respective parties?

Presidential Trends: Biden, Trump Party Nominations Look Inevitable — Heading toward August of the off-year, we are seeing clear presidential trends already developing.

President Joe Biden will be renominated. Despite Robert F. Kennedy Jr. being in the primary race and attracting some media attention, the Democratic process will almost assuredly be a non-event.

Trends are also clear for former President Donald Trump. He continues to lead in all polling and has actually gotten stronger within the party base after the series of indictments were leveled against him.

The Morning Consult data and research firm released a graph of the candidates’ progress from December of 2022 through the present. The latest result from their daily online track finds Trump now approaching 60 percent support nationally. In December, he was right at 50 support, but then generally dropped into the 40s through February but has continued to gain strength ever since.

The perennial second-place candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is now trending in the opposite direction. Beginning with 30 support national support in late December, Gov. DeSantis now finds himself languishing in the teens according to most GOP surveys.

The trajectory for most of the second-tier candidates has also been upward. Aside from Gov. DeSantis, who has fallen, and former Vice President Mike Pence and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who have remained virtually stagnant, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum have all improved their standing. Ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has bolted onto the scene but appears to be running to deny Trump, and while he is moving into the middle of the pack, it is difficult to see how his support grows from the Republican Party’s relatively small “Never Trump” faction.

As we know, national polls do not deliver any delegate votes to the candidates. Those, of course, are won at the state level through public voting, so it is important to follow the state data to get a true indication of the nomination contest’s ebbs and flows.

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Majewski Won’t Run; Disgraced Ex-AG Looking at Indiana Gov Bid ; Mississippi Candidate Returned to Ballot; Texas AG Paxton’s Trial

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 2, 2023

House

J.R. Majewski (R)

OH-9: Majewski Won’t Run — J.R. Majewski (R) who lost a 57-43 percent decision to veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+6, said that he will not return for a re-match after originally planning to run. Majewski says his mother’s health situation is what is forcing him out of the race.

The major political benefactor could be former state Rep. Craig Riedel (R), who lost the 2022 primary to Majewski when he and state Sen. Theresa Gavarone (R-Bowling Green) split much of the vote to allow Majewski to capture the party’s right faction and win with a plurality of 36 percent of the vote. Riedel finished second with 31 percent. Sen. Gavarone has already announced that she will seek re-election to the state Senate instead of making another congressional run. A local mayor and former local mayor are both in the race, but Riedel should be viewed as the leading candidate for the GOP nomination.

Governor

Indiana: Disgraced Ex-AG Looking at Gov Bid — Former Attorney General Curtis Hill was suspended from office during his tenure when an Indiana Superior Court made him leave office for a month as part of his plea for misdemeanor sexual battery. Hill then would lose his re-nomination campaign to current attorney general and former Congressman Todd Rokita (R).

Now, Hill confirms that he is considering entering the open governor’s primary next year where he would do battle with US Sen. Mike Braun and Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch. Despite the long odds of success, Hill may well become a candidate. Sen. Braun continues as the clear favorite for the party nomination and to win the general election in November of 2024.

Mississippi: Democrat Restored to Ballot — Earlier in the year, the Mississippi Democratic Party, largely in an effort to clear the gubernatorial field for Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, disqualified candidate Bob Hickingbottom for not filing certain documents on time and because he once ran on the Conservative Party ballot line.

A Mississippi state court ruled this week that the MDP exceeded its authority in disqualifying Hickingbottom and reinstated him on the ballot. Therefore, it appears he will compete with Presley for the Democratic nomination in August.

It is unlikely that this decision will derail the Presley campaign. The Public Service Commissioner, a cousin to the late rock ‘n roll icon Elvis Presley, should easily win the Democratic primary and then face Gov. Tate Reeves (R) in this year’s November campaign. Gov. Reeves also faces minor Republican competition for his party’s nomination.

States

Texas: AG Paxton Facing August Impeachment Trial in Senate — Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) has been under an ethical cloud of securities fraud and bribery allegations for years. In fact, he has subsequently won two re-election campaigns even though these charges have been publicized since the federal indictment came down against him in 2015. Though indicted eight years ago, the federal government has yet to take any further action.

Based upon a state House of Representatives Committee investigation, AG Paxton was impeached by the full body this week and is suspended from office until the state Senate holds a trial. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R), who will preside over the trial as president of the Senate, announced the trial will begin on Aug. 28. Lt. Gov. Patrick also said that state Sen. Angela Paxton (R-Allen), Paxton’s wife, will not be forced to recuse herself from acting as a Senate juror. After hearing the evidence, all 31 senators will vote on whether to remove Paxton from office. A two-thirds majority, or 21 votes, is required to remove an office holder. The Republicans hold a 19-12 majority in the Senate.

Trump’s Florida Endorsements; Mastriano Candidacy Could Hinder Republicans; Jungle Primary System Being Considered in Montana, SD

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 24, 2022

President

Former President Donald Trump

Donald Trump: Scoring Florida Congressional Endorsements — Former President Donald Trump is playing the endorsement game to “one up” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and he has been quite successful in recruiting Sunshine State delegation congressional endorsements. How much such support will help the former President is yet to be determined, but he now has 11 Florida House members in his camp versus just one for the state’s governor.

Those publicly endorsing Trump are Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach); John Rutherford (R-Jacksonville); Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach), from the district that DeSantis previously represented; Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach); Gus Bilirakis (R-Palm Harbor); Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg); Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota); Greg Steube (R-Sarasota); Byron Donalds (R-Naples); Brian Mast (R-Ft. Pierce); and Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami). The lone DeSantis endorsement comes from freshman Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa).

Pennsylvania: Trump Concerned About Mastriano — Reports are surfacing on Twitter that former President Trump is expressing anxiety that state senator and former gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano (R-Chambersburg) would hurt his own campaign if he were to run for the Senate and win the party nomination. Sen. Mastriano is a strong supporter of Trump’s, but his poor 2022 general election campaign for governor netted him only a 56-42 percent loss to then-Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D).

Again having Mastriano on the general election ballot would likely cost Republicans up and down the entire ballot because another poor campaign for one of the top offices would likely depress GOP turnout.

Senate

Montana: Top-Two Primary Bill Tabled — The state House policy committee considering whether Montana should employ the top-two jungle primary system in the US Senate race as a test case this year has run into a snag. All but one Republican committee member joined with the Democrats to table the bill that would enact such a plan.

Democrats claim the Republicans are trying to change the primary system in order to stop a Libertarian Party candidate from garnering its customary three percentage points in the general election, most of which hurts a Republican nominee.

The measure had already passed the Senate. The bill’s author said he doesn’t believe the idea is dead and could still pass the 68R-32D state House of Representatives before the legislature adjourns. Sen. Jon Tester (D) is seeking a fourth term in next year’s election. Should this measure pass, the results will likely directly affect his campaign.

States

South Dakota: Clears the Way for Top-Two Nominating System — The South Dakota Secretary of State approved the petition to begin gathering signatures to put a measure on the ballot that would change the way primaries are conducted in the Mount Rushmore State. Proponents of the top-two all-party jungle primary system, while at least temporarily on hold in Montana, can now move forward in South Dakota. To qualify a constitutional amendment measure for the state ballot, 35,000 valid registered voter signatures must be brought forth before the assigned deadline. The purpose of this effort is to qualify the top-two concept for the November 2024 ballot.

The Republicans, who dominate the state’s politics, are officially opposed to the measure. The state Republican Party chairman pledges to fight the ballot initiative and will likely get the party on public record in opposition to the proposed election system change.

Currently, California and Washington have adopted this system that originated in Louisiana. Alaska adopted a hybrid version of the all-party primary with four candidates qualifying for the general election, as opposed to two as in the other states. In all domains, the top finishers advance regardless of political party affiliation.

Costello Challenges Maine’s Sen King; PA Senate Poll; Romney’s Rough Road in Utah; Louisiana Gov. Race Update

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 17, 2023

Senate

Maine: Sen. King Draws Democratic Opponent — David Costello (D), a former aide to Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley (D) before moving to Maine, announced his candidacy for the US Senate late last week. (See video above.) He hopes to oppose Independent Sen. Angus King, who is expected to seek a third term. Democrats have filed candidates in both of Sen. King’s victorious races, but neither have been competitive. Still, the three-way race including the Republican nominee, was able to keep Sen. King’s winning percentages down to 54 and 51 percent in 2012 and 2018, respectively.

Should Costello be able to mount a significant campaign, the chances increase for Sen. King to drop below 50 percent, and that means Maine’s Ranked Choice Voting system would take effect. In that wild-card system, the end result would not be as easy to predict.

Pennsylvania: First 2024 Poll — On the heels of Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) announcing that he will seek a fourth term, Pennsylvania’s Franklin & Marshall College went into the field with a statewide survey (March 27-4/7; 643 registered Pennsylvania voters; live interview). According to these results, Sen. Casey would lead 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick (R), 42-35 percent. His lead significantly expands to 47-31 percent if his opponent were 2022 gubernatorial nominee and state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R).

Somewhat surprisingly, the poll finds Sen. Casey’s job approval rating at a rather poor 29:48 percent favorable to unfavorable. This compares to Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro’s positive 43:36 percent job approval ratio.

Utah: Sen. Romney Files 2024 Campaign Committee — Utah Sen. Mitt Romney (R) has filed a 2024 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. While this action is not a formal declaration of candidacy, filing a campaign committee is certainly the first step toward him seeking a second term.

It is likely that Sen. Romney will be forced to petition his way onto the ballot since the chances of him coming through the conservative Utah Republican Party nominating convention are slim. Such would lead to a June 2024 Republican primary challenge. The most prominent potential opponent being discussed is former congressman and Fox News contributor Jason Chaffetz. State House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville) has formed a US Senate exploratory committee. Attorney General Sean Reyes (R) is also a potential Senate candidate.

States

Louisiana: Gov Candidate to Switch Races — The surprise announcement from Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin (R) that he is not going to seek re-election has now changed the governor’s race. State House Speaker Clay Schexnayder (R-Gonzales), who was clearly laying the groundwork to enter the open governor’s race, has now adjusted his political course and announced his run for the open Secretary of State’s position.

The top Republicans already in the governor’s race are Attorney General Jeff Landry, state Treasurer John Schroder, and former Chamber of Commerce CEO Stephen Waguespack. Democrats look to be coalescing around former state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. The Louisiana primary is Oct. 14, 2023. If no candidate receives majority support, a two-person runoff will occur on Nov. 18.

Biden Confirms He’ll Run Again; Trump Picks Up Endorsements;
A Possible Senate Bid for Police Chief Craig; Casey Announces in PA;
“No Labels” Has Sights Set on Ohio

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 12

President

President Joe Biden

President Biden: Plans to Run — In an interview with NBC’s Al Roker, President Biden confirmed that he “plans to run” for re-election, though is not yet ready to make a formal announcement. It is again surprising that the 2024 presidential race on both sides is not coming into form more quickly. With no one launching a serious Democratic primary challenge to the President, he certainly is under no pressure to formally announce his re-election candidacy anytime soon.

Donald Trump: Florida Congressional Endorsements — Former President Donald Trump continues to make inroads from Gov. Ron DeSantis’ home state of Florida. Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) announced his endorsement of former President Trump Monday, as did his colleague, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples/Ft. Myers). Previously, Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) had publicly announced their support of Trump.

Senate

Michigan: Ex-Police Chief Craig Looking Toward Senate — Retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) had planned to enter the Michigan governor’s race in 2022 but failed to submit the required number of valid petition signatures. Now, reports are surfacing that Craig is considering entering the open US Senate race. At this point, Michigan School Board member Nikki Snyder is the only current or former Republican elected official to declare for the race. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) is the most well-known Democrat to step forward.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is not seeking a fifth term. Democrats will be favored to retain the open Michigan seat, but another close election result is expected.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Announces — Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) indicated his re-election plans were on hold until he received a clean bill of health from his surgeon. Earlier in the year, Sen. Casey underwent surgery to treat prostate cancer. Apparently, the senator has received positive reports from his physicians, because on Monday he announced his re-election effort.

Sen. Casey, who is the son of the late former Pennsylvania Governor Bob Casey Sr., was first elected in 2006, defeating then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R). He was re-elected in 2012 and 2018 with 54 and 56 percent of the vote, respectively. He will again be favored to clinch a fourth term next year.

States

Ohio: No Labels Files Signatures — The No Labels organization is attempting to qualify for ballot position in many states with the goal of offering centrist candidates in various races, possibly including that of president. The entity has so far qualified for a ballot line in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) announced Monday that the No Labels organization has petitioned for recognition in the Buckeye State. LaRose indicated that the signature verification process to determine if the group has met the state political party recognition requirement has begun.

Though the No Labels leadership — which includes former US senator and 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Lieberman and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan as national co-chairmen — has so far indicated they are not looking to file a presidential candidate, both parties are wary that they might.

In different states, No Labels could hurt each party. It is also conceivable that Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema could run for re-election on the No Labels line since the party has qualified in her state of Arizona. The Arizona Democratic Party, however, has filed a lawsuit attempting to invalidate its status claiming the No Labels organization has not completely fulfilled Arizona’s legal requirements.

Speculation That Chaffetz Will Run for Office Again in Utah; GOP’s Super Majority in LA; Nunn Challenges in Iowa; Kistner Lining up to Run Again

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Governor

Utah’s Jason Chaffetz (R)

Utah: Gov. Cox to Seek Re-Election, but Chaffetz is the Story — Gov. Spencer Cox (R) announced on Friday that he will seek a second term next year, but more of the political attention centers around former congressman and current Fox News commentator, Jason Chaffetz (R). There has been much speculation, and not denied, that Chaffetz is considering launching a Republican primary challenge against either Gov. Cox or Sen. Mitt Romney (R). Therefore, it appears the 2024 Utah nomination convention and Republican primary will feature some meaningful political action.

House

IA-3: Swing District Freshman Draws Challenger — Freshman US Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) was one of the few challengers to win a House seat in 2022 when he scored a 49.6 – 48.9 percent win over two-term Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Des Moines), a margin of 2,145 votes from more than 315,000 ballots cast. On Friday, mental health therapist Tracy Limon (D) announced her congressional candidacy, the first individual to come forward for the 2024 election. This could be a signal that former Rep. Axne will not return for a re-match, since the Democratic primary would likely be cleared for her if she desired to make a comeback.

MN-2: Kistner Considers Third Run — Navy veteran and businessman Tyler Kistner (R) has lost two close congressional races to Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), and confirms that he is considering launching another re-match in 2024. The 2020 election proved his better showing, losing 48-46 percent. In the redistricted 2nd District, which now stretches from the Wisconsin border southwest to include the southern St. Paul and Minneapolis suburbs, the result was not as close, 51-46 percent, in the congresswoman’s favor. A Kistner third run would not likely change the result, as he received 46 percent in both of his elections. Republicans might find more success in 2024 with a fresh candidate.

States

Louisiana: Party Switch Gives Rs Super Majority — State Rep. Francis Thompson of Dehli is the longest-serving state legislator in Louisiana state history, being first elected in 1975. On Friday, he left the Democratic Party and became a Republican. The move gives the Republicans a two-thirds majority in the House, and makes it easier to override Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards’ vetoes. The move won’t change many issue voting patterns, however, since Rep. Thompson has always been one of the more conservative legislators. During his tenure in the legislature, Thompson has served in both the House and Senate.

A Changing South Texas

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 20, 2023

States

Demographics: A Shifting South Texas Electorate — Typically, not much used to happen politically in the Texas’ Rio Grande Valley congressional districts that touch the US-Mexico border, but such is not the case anymore.

Republican freshman Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) converted what became an open 15th District, which stretches from the San Antonio area all the way to the border.

We began seeing the political waves shifting in the 2020 presidential election when then-President Trump ran well ahead of a typical Republican national nominee in a region that was historically solid Democratic. In the five congressional districts that touch the Texas-Mexico border, President Biden was able to break 52 percent in only one of the seats, and that one is in the El Paso-anchored 16th District.

The trend carried over into the 2022 election where almost all of the state’s political action was centered in the border districts, and it’s not just because the cross points are being challenged and overrun with foreigners illegally coming into the United States. Largely due to the Biden Administration’s energy policies and the Democrats’ “Green New Deal” that is causing the area to lose energy-related jobs, Republicans are making political gains. In what were once highly safe Democratic CDs, we now see heightened political competition.

The region is changing to such a degree that now even one of the area’s Republican congressmen, Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) — in the district that stretches from San Antonio all the way to El Paso and contains more of the border territory than any district in the country — is facing a new primary challenge from his political right. This seat has been competitive for years in the general election, but now is settling itself as the South Texas region’s most reliable Republican seat.

Republican freshman Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen — above), who converted what became an open 15th District that stretches from the San Antonio area all the way to the border in and around the McAllen area, looks to be in solid position for re-election next year.

Redistricting is a factor in the results, and if the GOP map drawers had known what would happen in a special election in the Brownsville-anchored 34th District early in 2022, they would likely have crafted different boundaries.

Mayra Flores

As a result, Republican Mayra Flores, who made national news in 2022 when she scored an upset special election win in the 34th, ultimately fell 51-43 percent to fellow Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) in the general election. Rep. Gonzalez, seeing the trends in his 15th CD, decided to run for re-election in the more Democratic 34th after then-Rep. Filemon Vela resigned the seat to accept a position in the private sector.

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