By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 4, 2026
In addition to the Michigan primary, which we covered extensively yesterday, three other states, Missouri, Virginia, and Washington, are holding primaries today. Only Virginia features a statewide contest, and even that race is headed for a non‑competitive general election.
>Missouri
The state’s eight congressional campaigns lead the 2026 ballot in the Show Me State. The major primary battles are occurring in Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D‑Kansas City) newly redrawn 5th District and the open 6th District, where Republican voters will choose a successor to retiring Rep. Sam Graves (R‑Tarkio). Additionally, freshman Rep. Wesley Bell (D‑St. Louis) faces a rematch with the woman he defeated in 2024, former US Rep. Cori Bush.
In the St. Louis-anchored 1st District, Rep. Bell is again locked in a tough campaign with former Rep. Bush. Their 2024 contest was bitter, and this year’s race is no different. Bush continues to portray Rep. Bell as aligned with the establishment and too close to Republicans, though the Congressman’s voting record does not support such a claim.
Rep. Bell holds a 3:1 fundraising advantage and is again expected to prevail. The 1st District is now the state’s lone Democratic seat, and it will remain under the party’s control regardless of who wins tonight’s nomination.
In the St. Louis suburban 2nd District, veteran US Rep. Ann Wagner (R‑Ballwin) and Democratic retired Army officer Fred Wellman both appear to be facing only minor opposition for their respective nominations. With a partisan lean of 54.5R – 43.2D (Dave’s Redistricting App), Rep. Wagner has the inside track for November, though Democrats are still expected to invest heavily to support Wellman.
The newly drawn 5th Congressional District was the focal point of Missouri’s 2026 redistricting plan. Its partisan lean shifts from 60.8D – 35.9R to 56.6R – 41.1D, making a Republican victory in November highly likely and placing Rep. Cleaver at serious political risk. This seat is central to GOP hopes of protecting their slim House majority. Six Republicans are competing for the nomination, and three appear viable.
Rep. Graves is retiring after 26 years in Congress and eight years in the Missouri legislature. Tonight’s GOP primary will determine his successor. He has endorsed radio talk show host Chris Stigall, one of five Republicans on the ballot. Stigall’s strongest competitors are Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett and businessman Nathanael Schultz.
Virginia
Sen. Mark Warner (D) is on the ballot for what he says will be the final time. When announcing his 2026 re‑election bid, Warner stated that he intends to retire when the next term ends in early 2033. He is unopposed for renomination, and none of the six Republicans running appear positioned to mount a strong general‑election challenge.
Virginia’s redistricting referendum, despite passing, was nullified in court after judges ruled that the Democratic legislature and Governor violated state constitutional requirements by rushing the measure to the ballot. Lawmakers plan to return with a new referendum in 2027, to run concurrently with the state House and Senate elections. For 2026, the 2021 map remains in effect.
Rep. Rob Wittman’s (R‑Montrose) 1st District is the second‑weakest pro‑Trump seat in the state, though the President still carried the district with a five-point margin. Rep. Wittman’s likely opponent is Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney and 2025 Attorney General candidate Shannon Taylor, who is favored to emerge from her five‑candidate Democratic field. She is expected to run a strong general election campaign, though Rep. Wittman remains favored for 2026. He will, however, be a top target when the 2027 redistricting map is drawn.
In the Virginia Beach-anchored 2nd District, where President Trump narrowly prevailed over Kamala Harris in 2024, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R‑Virginia Beach) is seeking a third term. Her opponent will be former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D), whom she unseated in 2022. The general election promises to be intense and highly competitive meaning it should be considered a toss‑up all the way to Election Day.
For a time, it appeared former Rep. Bob Good would return to challenge freshman Rep. John McGuire (R‑Manakin‑Sabot) in the mid‑state 5th District. Good ultimately declined, leaving Rep. McGuire unopposed in the Republican primary.
The general election, however, features a formidable Democratic candidate: former Rep. Tom Perriello. He would likely have been favored under the new map, so his decision to continue running after the referendum was struck down suggests he may be positioning himself for 2028, when district lines are expected to be more favorable for a Democratic candidate.
In the Alexandria/Arlington-anchored 8th District, veteran Rep. Don Beyer (D‑Alexandria) faces four Democratic challengers in a moderately competitive primary. Rep. Beyer remains a strong favorite, but the candidates may also be positioning themselves for a potential 2028 open seat. Rep. Beyer will be 78 years old at the time of the next election and will be widely viewed as a retirement possibility.
Washington
Washington is one of four states – Alaska, California, and Louisiana are the others – that use a jungle primary format. As a result, voters will not select partisan nominees tonight. Instead, the top two finishers, regardless of party or vote percentage, will advance to the general election.
The most competitive contests are in southwest District 3, where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D‑Skamania County) is attempting to win a third term in a Republican‑leaning district; the open 4th District; and the Spokane‑anchored 5th District.
With resigned Trump appointee Joe Kent not returning for a third attempt in the 3rd CD, Republicans have an opportunity to field a stronger challenger. That candidate is state Senate Minority Leader and retired Navy Captain John Braun (R‑Chehalis), who has led in jungle primary polling. Should Sen. Braun qualify for November, as appears likely, Rep. Perez will face her toughest campaign yet in a seat that is rapidly becoming a must‑win Republican target.
In central Washington District 4, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R‑Sunnyside) is retiring, leaving six Republicans, one Democrat, and four Independents competing for the seat.
Historically, this district has set the precedent of sending two Republicans to the general election, but with only one Democrat on the ballot, retired Air Force officer John Duresky, the chances of his advancing have substantially improved. Republicans are still very likely to hold the seat, potentially with state Sen. Matt Boehnke (R‑Kennewick), though a first‑place finish for Duresky tonight is not out of the question.
In District 5, freshman Rep. Mike Baumgartner (R‑Spokane) is favored for re‑election. The remaining question is whom he will face in November: one of the six Democrats running or one of four Independents. Democrat Carmela Conroy and Independent Nate Powell both have strong prospects of securing the second ballot position needed to challenge the Congressman.