Tag Archives: Rep. Byron Donalds

Rep. Donalds Moving Fast in Florida

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 14, 2025

Governor

Florida Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

The open Florida Governor’s race could be a 2026 campaign that attracts a great deal of national political attention, but the most recent moves suggest the contest may instead be headed for an early clinching.

Florida US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is strategically moving quickly in an attempt to freeze out Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis from entering the open Governor’s race. Donalds’ fast action is designed to secure the Republican gubernatorial nomination long before the state’s August 2026 primary election.

In announcing a new set of public endorsements, Rep. Donalds, currently serving his third term in the House, wields support from some of the nation and state’s top Republicans including 11 of the 19 Florida GOP House members in addition to himself.

His list of key political endorsements includes President Donald Trump, Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R), and Sunshine State US Reps. Kat Cammack (R-Gainesville), John Rutherford (R-Jacksonville), newly elected Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach), Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), Dan Webster (R-Clermont), Laurel Lee (R-Tampa), Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota), Scott Franklin (R-Lakeland), Brian Mast (R-Fort Pierce), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Miami), and Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami).

Perhaps most important from the group of House members is Rep. Lee, who is the only member of the delegation to back Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign over that of President Trump.

Clearly the Donalds’ endorsement strategy is designed to gather so much early public support that Ms. DeSantis, assuming she is still testing the political waters to succeed her term-limited husband, will see that the path to the nomination is too steep to traverse.

The most recent elections and voter registration data suggests winning the Republican primary is now almost tantamount to also securing the general election. Since 2018, Florida, along with Ohio and West Virginia, have moved significantly to the ideological right, while Colorado, New Hampshire, and New Mexico have moved similarly leftward.

To give you an idea as to how much Florida has changed politically, let’s examine the state voter registration figures. According to the official Secretary of State registration count, at the end of 2018 there were 257,175 more Florida registered Democrats than Republicans. Conversely, at the end of 2024, Republicans claimed 1,156,082 more registrants than Democrats.

This trend represents a net GOP gain of 1,413,257 self-identified party members during the six-year period, or 5.5 times the size of the Democratic advantage in 2018. As an aside, total registration only rose by 860,513 individuals during the same period. In fact, Democratic affiliation actually dropped by a whopping 496,075 individual units from 2018 through the end of 2024.

The election results during the same six-year period and slightly beyond accentuate the registration numbers.

Turning back to 2016, then-citizen Trump carried Florida against Hillary Clinton by 112,911 votes or just 1.2 percentage points. In 2018, then-Congressman DeSantis and current Sen. Scott, who was the sitting Governor at the time, won their statewide contests by 32,463 and 10,033 votes meaning four-tenths of a percent or just over one-tenth of a percent, respectively. In 2020, President Trump again carried Florida, but with a small 3.4 percent cushion.

Yet in 2022, the margins began to drastically change. Gov. DeSantis posted a victory margin of just under 20 percentage points, and then-Sen. Marco Rubio recorded a win of better than 16 points even while spending $30 million less than his opponent.

Moving to 2024, President Trump clinched Florida with a 13-point cushion, which translates into a victory spread of more than 1.4 million votes. Such is an improvement greater than 1.2 million votes when compared to four years earlier. Sen. Scott then skated to a re-election victory that fell slightly under 1.4 million cast ballots.

While Florida’s rightward move was certainly driven through voter registration and conservative voters moving to the state from other places, it didn’t take long for the voting patterns to follow suit. Expect this trend to continue in the open 2024 Governor’s race, hence Rep. Donalds’ strategy to lock down the party nomination early will pay major dividends.

Florida: Donalds vs. DeSantis

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 17, 2025

Governor

Florida First Lady, Casey DeSantis / Photo by Gage Skidmore

The first poll testing a potentially major battle between two national conservative movement factions was just released.

The impending open Florida Republican gubernatorial primary could feature the state’s First Lady, Casey DeSantis, whose incumbent husband Ron DeSantis is ineligible to seek a third term, and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) who already carries President Donald Trump’s endorsement.

At this point, Rep. Donalds is an announced gubernatorial candidate while Ms. DeSantis has yet to declare her intentions. Gov. DeSantis, however, has publicly hinted that she is at least considering running.

The Fabrizio Lee & Associates research firm went into the field to provide an early read on such a race. Their poll (Feb. 26-27 and released March 10; 600 likely Florida Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees Rep. Donalds jumping out to a slight 34-30 percent lead over Ms. DeSantis. An additional three percent would support Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, who is also a potential GOP gubernatorial candidate.

The results get even more interesting when the respective endorsements are filtered. When the respondents are informed that President Trump publicly supports Rep. Donalds, the ballot test soars to 45-23 percent in the Congressman’s favor.

The contest changes when further information is shared. While it is certainly not surprising that Gov. DeSantis would endorse his wife but when the respondents are told that he will, the ballot test flips. The altered result projects Ms. DeSantis moving ahead of Rep. Donalds, 35-33 percent.

The caveat relating to the previous push question is the respondents were told of Gov. DeSantis’ endorsement of his wife prior to being informed of President Trump’s support for Rep. Donalds, and this situation is highlighted in the Fabrizio Lee analysis.

When all of the endorsement information is presented to the sampling universe, Rep. Donalds reassumes the lead at 38-28 percent over Ms. DeSantis with Simpson increasing to five percent support. Therefore, it is this last ballot test that should be considered the benchmark for future monitoring of this proposed race.

Whether this campaign actually transpires is another question. Ms. DeSantis has certainly not committed to running and is likely a long way from making a final decision. The 2026 Florida primary is not scheduled until Aug. 18, with a state candidate filing deadline of June 12. Therefore, much time remains to contemplate whether she will become an official candidate.

Certainly, the DeSantis decision involves more than calculating victory chances for the First Lady to succeed her husband. Since Ron DeSantis has national ambitions, the political analysis will involve just how much risk the family wants to assume in entering a campaign where a DeSantis could lose to a Trump-endorsed opponent.

At this point, the early presidential political climate doesn’t appear to positively favor a return appearance for Gov. DeSantis despite what should be his appealing record of accomplishment for a conservative voter base.

Since Vice President J.D. Vance is already considered the leading prospect to succeed President Trump as the next Republican nominee, he will be in an extremely strong position to capture the party nomination unless things go badly for the Administration toward the end of their current term.

Therefore, the 2028 presidential playing field will also factor heavily in deciding whether Casey DeSantis runs for Governor in 2026. In any event, we can expect to see the Donalds-DeSantis political drama continue over the next several months.

Rep. Donalds Atop New Gov Poll

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 10, 2025

Governor

Florida Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

A new Florida Republican primary poll suggests that three-term Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) holds an early commanding lead over selected potential 2026 candidates who will compete for the right to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).

Though no major candidate has formally announced for Governor, Rep. Donalds appears to be a definitive bet to run. The Victory Insights research firm commissioned a late January Republican voters’ poll (Jan. 26-27; 850 likely Florida 2026 Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system and text) and found Rep. Donalds holding a substantial 33-4-3-1 percent advantage over Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, state Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez. Not included was former Rep. Matt Gaetz who, from time to time, has indicated he would run for Governor in 2026.

It has now become unlikely that Lt. Gov. Nunez will become a gubernatorial candidate. This week it was announced that she will resign her position to become the interim President of Florida International University.

Obviously, this survey provides good news for Rep. Donalds who, despite being a relatively junior House member in terms of seniority, is a frequent guest on a variety of Fox News programs. Therefore, he has become well known to his state’s conservative voter base.

Gov. DeSantis may not view Rep. Donalds’ current standing in the 2026 Governor’s campaign as entirely positive. Donalds is very close to President Trump and endorsed him over his own Governor in the 2024 presidential primaries. Therefore, DeSantis’ opportunity to recast the statewide elected officials via appointment could be his way of preparing a more favored candidate for entering the political battle that will determine his own successor.

The Florida political scene will soon change because Gov. DeSantis has the unusual opportunity of appointing an entire new slate of statewide officials.

With Marco Rubio being confirmed as President Trump’s Secretary of State, Gov. DeSantis appointed state Attorney General Ashley Moody to replace him in the Senate. This allowed Gov. DeSantis to appoint his own chief of staff, James Uthmeier, as Florida’s new Attorney General.

With Nunez resigning, the Governor will now appoint a new Lieutenant Governor, and this could be the key person to watch in the unfolding open Governor’s race.

Furthermore, the state’s Chief Financial Officer, Jimmy Patronis (R), won the special congressional primary election to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz in the Panhandle’s 1st District, and he is a lock to clinch the April 1 special election. Since he was running for a different office, Florida election law dictates that an individual must resign his or her current elective position. Patronis has indicated his resignation will occur on March 31. At that point, Gov. DeSantis will appoint a new state CFO.

The Secretary of State is already a gubernatorial appointed position, and Gov. DeSantis chose then-state Rep. Cord Byrd in 2022.

Once the Governor completes the appointment process, he will have chosen every statewide official. This will certainly affect the 2026 statewide elections since all of the incumbents will be DeSantis appointees as opposed to having elected status.

Since Florida has evolved into a strong Republican state in the past few elections, the next GOP gubernatorial nominee will now be rated as a strong favorite as opposed to being cast in a toss-up race.

Florida voter registration largely tells the story. At the time of the 2020 election, Democrats had a partisan voter registration edge over Republicans of 106,986 individuals according to the Florida Secretary of State’s official voter registration statistical report. The most current figures, released Jan. 10, 2025, finds not only Republicans having more party members, but they hold an astonishing 1,156,082 individual advantage over the Florida Democrats. Thus, we have seen a net Republican registration gain of 1,263,068 persons in just the preceding four years.

While Gov. DeSantis will leave his position at the beginning of 2027, his influence over who will take his place could now become even greater thanks to all of the statewide public officials coming via his appointments.

Biden Confirms He’ll Run Again; Trump Picks Up Endorsements;
A Possible Senate Bid for Police Chief Craig; Casey Announces in PA;
“No Labels” Has Sights Set on Ohio

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 12

President

President Joe Biden

President Biden: Plans to Run — In an interview with NBC’s Al Roker, President Biden confirmed that he “plans to run” for re-election, though is not yet ready to make a formal announcement. It is again surprising that the 2024 presidential race on both sides is not coming into form more quickly. With no one launching a serious Democratic primary challenge to the President, he certainly is under no pressure to formally announce his re-election candidacy anytime soon.

Donald Trump: Florida Congressional Endorsements — Former President Donald Trump continues to make inroads from Gov. Ron DeSantis’ home state of Florida. Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) announced his endorsement of former President Trump Monday, as did his colleague, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples/Ft. Myers). Previously, Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) had publicly announced their support of Trump.

Senate

Michigan: Ex-Police Chief Craig Looking Toward Senate — Retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) had planned to enter the Michigan governor’s race in 2022 but failed to submit the required number of valid petition signatures. Now, reports are surfacing that Craig is considering entering the open US Senate race. At this point, Michigan School Board member Nikki Snyder is the only current or former Republican elected official to declare for the race. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) is the most well-known Democrat to step forward.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is not seeking a fifth term. Democrats will be favored to retain the open Michigan seat, but another close election result is expected.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Announces — Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) indicated his re-election plans were on hold until he received a clean bill of health from his surgeon. Earlier in the year, Sen. Casey underwent surgery to treat prostate cancer. Apparently, the senator has received positive reports from his physicians, because on Monday he announced his re-election effort.

Sen. Casey, who is the son of the late former Pennsylvania Governor Bob Casey Sr., was first elected in 2006, defeating then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R). He was re-elected in 2012 and 2018 with 54 and 56 percent of the vote, respectively. He will again be favored to clinch a fourth term next year.

States

Ohio: No Labels Files Signatures — The No Labels organization is attempting to qualify for ballot position in many states with the goal of offering centrist candidates in various races, possibly including that of president. The entity has so far qualified for a ballot line in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) announced Monday that the No Labels organization has petitioned for recognition in the Buckeye State. LaRose indicated that the signature verification process to determine if the group has met the state political party recognition requirement has begun.

Though the No Labels leadership — which includes former US senator and 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Lieberman and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan as national co-chairmen — has so far indicated they are not looking to file a presidential candidate, both parties are wary that they might.

In different states, No Labels could hurt each party. It is also conceivable that Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema could run for re-election on the No Labels line since the party has qualified in her state of Arizona. The Arizona Democratic Party, however, has filed a lawsuit attempting to invalidate its status claiming the No Labels organization has not completely fulfilled Arizona’s legal requirements.