Tag Archives: Rep. Tony Gonzales

A Changing South Texas

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 20, 2023

States

Demographics: A Shifting South Texas Electorate — Typically, not much used to happen politically in the Texas’ Rio Grande Valley congressional districts that touch the US-Mexico border, but such is not the case anymore.

Republican freshman Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) converted what became an open 15th District, which stretches from the San Antonio area all the way to the border.

We began seeing the political waves shifting in the 2020 presidential election when then-President Trump ran well ahead of a typical Republican national nominee in a region that was historically solid Democratic. In the five congressional districts that touch the Texas-Mexico border, President Biden was able to break 52 percent in only one of the seats, and that one is in the El Paso-anchored 16th District.

The trend carried over into the 2022 election where almost all of the state’s political action was centered in the border districts, and it’s not just because the cross points are being challenged and overrun with foreigners illegally coming into the United States. Largely due to the Biden Administration’s energy policies and the Democrats’ “Green New Deal” that is causing the area to lose energy-related jobs, Republicans are making political gains. In what were once highly safe Democratic CDs, we now see heightened political competition.

The region is changing to such a degree that now even one of the area’s Republican congressmen, Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) — in the district that stretches from San Antonio all the way to El Paso and contains more of the border territory than any district in the country — is facing a new primary challenge from his political right. This seat has been competitive for years in the general election, but now is settling itself as the South Texas region’s most reliable Republican seat.

Republican freshman Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen — above), who converted what became an open 15th District that stretches from the San Antonio area all the way to the border in and around the McAllen area, looks to be in solid position for re-election next year.

Redistricting is a factor in the results, and if the GOP map drawers had known what would happen in a special election in the Brownsville-anchored 34th District early in 2022, they would likely have crafted different boundaries.

Mayra Flores

As a result, Republican Mayra Flores, who made national news in 2022 when she scored an upset special election win in the 34th, ultimately fell 51-43 percent to fellow Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) in the general election. Rep. Gonzalez, seeing the trends in his 15th CD, decided to run for re-election in the more Democratic 34th after then-Rep. Filemon Vela resigned the seat to accept a position in the private sector.

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Klain Says No; Rogers Won’t Run; Republican to Challenge Rep. Gonzales; Graves to Bypass Gov Race

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 10, 2023

Senate

Ron Klain

Indiana: Klain Says No — It appeared for a time that Democratic leaders were attempting to recruit Biden former White House chief of staff Ron Klain into the open Hoosier State Senate race. Incumbent Republican Sen. Mike Braun is foregoing re-election to instead run for governor.

The Klain idea, however, was not met with overwhelming acceptance. The 2022 Indiana Democratic Senate nominee, Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott, for example, expressed opposition to Klain, pointing out that the Washington, DC political establishment did nothing to help him in his failed race against GOP Sen. Todd Young despite several polls suggesting the race was close early. For his part, Klain responded by saying he has never run for office and, therefore, has no plans to become a Senate candidate in 2024.

Michigan: Ex-Rep. Mike Rogers Won’t Run — Former Congressman Mike Rogers (R), who chaired the House Intelligence Committee during his tenure in office and was considering a political comeback in the open Michigan Senate race, says he will not run. The list of Republicans still considering the campaign is dwindling. With both Rogers and former gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon out of the race, the list of potential candidates now include Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), and former Reps. Fred Upton and Peter Meijer. Of this group, Meier appears to be making the most moves to organize a campaign.

House

TX-23: Another Republican to Challenge Rep. Gonzales — For the second time this week, a Republican has come forward to announce a GOP primary challenge to two-term Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) after the incumbent was censured by the Texas Republican Party for taking certain issue positions. Joining Medina County Republican Party chair Julie Clark in the race is retired ICE officer Victor Avila. Since Texas is a runoff state, a crowded field does not necessarily help an incumbent. In a non-runoff state, a crowded field splitting the anti-incumbent vote would allow the latter to win with a plurality.

The Texas primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024; a runoff, if necessary, would be held May 28. The 23rd District is a politically marginal seat that stretches from San Antonio to El Paso and contains more of the US-Mexico border than any other district. The GOP challenges will likely spur the Democrats to recruit a strong general election candidate, so Rep. Gonzales is likely to face several serious campaigns next year.

Governor

Louisiana: Rep. Graves Decides to Bypass Gov Race — After much speculation suggesting five-term US Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) would soon join the open 2023 governor’s race this year, the congressman announced this week that he will remain in the House of Representatives. Graves said in his released written statement that he looks forward to helping unite the Republican Party behind a candidate “… with a bold, hopeful vision of Louisiana’s promise that is equal to her potential.”

State House Speaker Clay Schexnayder (R-Gonzales) and Stephen Waguespack, the president and CEO of the Louisiana Association of Business & Industry and former gubernatorial chief of staff, are now expected to join a Republican field that includes attorney general and ex-congressman, Jeff Landry, state Treasurer John Schroder, state Sen. Sharon Hewitt (R-Chalmette), and state Rep. Richard Nelson (R-Mandeville).

For the Democrats, former state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson appears to have successfully unified the party behind his candidacy. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D), who publicly supports Wilson, is ineligible to seek a third term.

Dixon Won’t Run for Senate; Pelosi Successor Waiting in the Wings; A Gonzales Challenger; A Republican Leads Liberal Group’s Poll

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Senate

Michigan School Board member Nikki Snyder (R)

Michigan: Tudor Dixon Won’t Run for Senate — Over the weekend, Tudor Dixon, the defeated 2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate, announced she will not join the forming open US Senate field. Last week, three-term US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) entered the race, and is widely viewed as the favorite for the Democratic nomination and the seat. In December, four-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) announced that she will retire at the end of this Congress.

We can soon expect more Republican action in this race. Michigan School Board member Nikki Snyder is the only announced GOP candidate. Others reportedly considering the race are US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), and former Reps. Fred Upton, Mike Rogers, and Peter Meijer.

House

CA-11: Pelosi Successor Waiting in the Wings — California state Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) is making his political future known. Anticipating that former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D) will not seek re-election in 2024, Sen. Wiener has filed a congressional exploratory committee with the Federal Election Commission. He says he will run for the 11th District seat, which covers most of the San Francisco peninsula, if Rep. Pelosi decides to retire.

He could be getting the jump on another scenario, also. Should Ambassador to the Holy See Joe Donnelly (D) resign later this year to mount a race for governor of Indiana as many believe he will, odds are strong that Pelosi will be appointed as his replacement. If so, a special election would then be scheduled for District 11. The ambassador of the United States to the Holy See is the official representative of the United States of America to the Holy See, the leadership of the Catholic Church. Before his ambassadorial appointment, Donnelly served both in the House and Senate. He was defeated for re-election to the Senate in 2018.

TX-23: Rep. Gonzales’ Primary Challenge — US Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio), after the Texas Republican Party recently voted to censure him for his support of gun control legislation, voting for the establishment of the January 6th Committee, and border legislation that the organization felt was not strong enough, drew Republican primary opposition. Medina County Republican Party chair Julie Clark announced that she will challenge the two-term incumbent who in 2022 scored the largest re-election percentage (55.9 percent) for any Republican since former Rep. Henry Bonilla’s 2004 victory.

Governor

North Carolina: GOP Lieutenant Governor Leads Liberal Group’s Poll — Raleigh based Public Policy Polling conducted a survey of the North Carolina electorate for the progressive left Forward Carolina organization (March 2-3; 704 registered North Carolina voters) and finds an unsurprisingly tight battle developing between unannounced gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson (R), the state’s lieutenant governor, and Attorney General Josh Stein (D) who is an official contender. The poll results find the two locked in a dead heat with Robinson holding a 44-42 percent edge. The lieutenant governor’s strong 56-28 percent showing in the state’s substantial rural areas is what catapults him to the lead.

Robinson was elected lieutenant governor as a Republican in 2020 despite now term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper (D) winning re-election. Robinson carried the state 51.6 – 48.4 percent. Attorney General Stein survived a close re-election battle in the same year, slipping past his Republican opponent with only a 50.1 – 49.9 percent victory margin. The open NC governor’s race will undoubtedly feature a tight finish.

A Special Election Look-In

By Jim Ellis

May 26, 2021 — The Albuquerque, New Mexico vacant US House seat will be filled on June 1, and a new RRH Elections survey finds the Democratic nominee holding a strong advantage. In Texas, There is no mystery as to which party will win the July 27 special runoff election in North Texas to replace the late Rep. Ron Wright (R-Arlington), but which Republican claims the vacant seat is certainly getting more interesting. We take a look at both races.

NM-1

The RRH Elections poll (May 18-21; 555 NM-1 special election voters and those intending to vote, interactive voice response system and online), finds state Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D-Albuquerque) leading state Sen. Mark Moores (R-Albuquerque), 49-33 percent.

The numbers make sense when overlaying the 1st District voting history. Former Rep. Deb Haaland (D-Albuquerque) naturally resigned the seat after being nominated and confirmed as US Interior Secretary in the Biden Administration weeks after winning re-election to a second term. Her victory percentage was 58, after claiming her first term in 2018 with a 59-36 percent margin.

At one time during the century, the 1st was politically competitive – former Rep. Heather Wilson (R-Albuquerque) held the seat for five terms, ending when she ran unsuccessfully for the US Senate in 2008, for example – but a weakened New Mexico Republican Party and a stronger Democratic composition from redistricting has taken the seat off the board.

President Biden carried the district over former President Trump, 60-37 percent, after Hillary Clinton won here in 2016 with a lower but still comparatively strong 52-35 percent spread. Testing President Biden’s current job approval rating, RRH finds him recording a 57:39 percent favorable to unfavorable ratio, which is similar to his 2020 vote performance. This consistency gives the RHH polling data further credibility.

In terms of finances, Stansbury had raised $1.2 million through the May 12 pre-primary reporting period, with $525,000 cash-on-hand as of that date. Sen. Moores, by contrast, had obtained $595,000 with $125,000 in the bank. His receipts total includes a $200,000 personal loan.

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2022: Three More House Retirements

By Jim Ellis

March 24, 2021 — A trio of veteran House members announced Monday that they won’t seek re-election in 2022. Reps. Tom Reed (R-NY) and Filemon Vela (D-TX) will retire, while Rep. Jody Hice (R-GA) declared his candidacy for the Georgia Secretary of State position.

Rep. Tom Reed (R-NY)

Tom Reed was first elected in 2010 and, at the time of his initial campaign, took a six-term limit pledge. The next election brings him to the end of his originally promised congressional service calendar. Earlier in the year, however, Rep. Reed had been making overtures about running for governor, especially when incumbent Andrew Cuomo (D) began running into political trouble. Rep. Reed even went so far as to begin hiring statewide campaign staff.

Late last week, however, accusations of him being drunk in public and becoming inappropriate with a female lobbyist several years ago began to surface. Originally, Rep. Reed said such accusations were false, but yesterday accompanied his retirement message with an apology for his past behavior.

The Reed retirement decision is likely good news for neighboring GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-New Hartford). You will remember that she defeated former Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica) by just 109 votes in the November election, a race that consumed more than three months to determine the final outcome. She originally won the 22nd District in 2016, but lost to Brindisi, then a state assemblyman, in 2018.

New York looks to lose at least one seat in reapportionment, and the Reed and Tenney districts rank 27th and 26th in population, respectively, among the 27 New York congressional seats. With Reed departing, the upstate map becomes much easier to draw in that his seat can be collapsed into hers, presenting Tenney with a larger but very likely more Republican district from which she could seek re-election.

Under this scenario, should it occur as described, her most serious competition would very likely come in the Republican primary instead of the general election. Securing local party support in her new counties would become Tenney’s first step in securing the GOP nomination under such a redistricting projection.

Rep. Filemon Vela (D-TX)

Rep. Vela’s retirement announcement after what will be five complete terms in the House comes as a surprise. He did, however, experience his tightest election of his five victories in November, but still won with a 55-42 percent majority. President Biden, however, only carried the 34th District, anchored in Brownsville on the Texas-Mexico border, with a 52-48 percent margin, down from 59-38 percent victory spread Hillary Clinton recorded in 2016.

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