Category Archives: Governor

Rep. Donalds Moving Fast in Florida

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 14, 2025

Governor

Florida Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

The open Florida Governor’s race could be a 2026 campaign that attracts a great deal of national political attention, but the most recent moves suggest the contest may instead be headed for an early clinching.

Florida US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is strategically moving quickly in an attempt to freeze out Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis from entering the open Governor’s race. Donalds’ fast action is designed to secure the Republican gubernatorial nomination long before the state’s August 2026 primary election.

In announcing a new set of public endorsements, Rep. Donalds, currently serving his third term in the House, wields support from some of the nation and state’s top Republicans including 11 of the 19 Florida GOP House members in addition to himself.

His list of key political endorsements includes President Donald Trump, Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R), and Sunshine State US Reps. Kat Cammack (R-Gainesville), John Rutherford (R-Jacksonville), newly elected Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach), Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), Dan Webster (R-Clermont), Laurel Lee (R-Tampa), Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota), Scott Franklin (R-Lakeland), Brian Mast (R-Fort Pierce), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Miami), and Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami).

Perhaps most important from the group of House members is Rep. Lee, who is the only member of the delegation to back Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign over that of President Trump.

Clearly the Donalds’ endorsement strategy is designed to gather so much early public support that Ms. DeSantis, assuming she is still testing the political waters to succeed her term-limited husband, will see that the path to the nomination is too steep to traverse.

The most recent elections and voter registration data suggests winning the Republican primary is now almost tantamount to also securing the general election. Since 2018, Florida, along with Ohio and West Virginia, have moved significantly to the ideological right, while Colorado, New Hampshire, and New Mexico have moved similarly leftward.

To give you an idea as to how much Florida has changed politically, let’s examine the state voter registration figures. According to the official Secretary of State registration count, at the end of 2018 there were 257,175 more Florida registered Democrats than Republicans. Conversely, at the end of 2024, Republicans claimed 1,156,082 more registrants than Democrats.

This trend represents a net GOP gain of 1,413,257 self-identified party members during the six-year period, or 5.5 times the size of the Democratic advantage in 2018. As an aside, total registration only rose by 860,513 individuals during the same period. In fact, Democratic affiliation actually dropped by a whopping 496,075 individual units from 2018 through the end of 2024.

The election results during the same six-year period and slightly beyond accentuate the registration numbers.

Turning back to 2016, then-citizen Trump carried Florida against Hillary Clinton by 112,911 votes or just 1.2 percentage points. In 2018, then-Congressman DeSantis and current Sen. Scott, who was the sitting Governor at the time, won their statewide contests by 32,463 and 10,033 votes meaning four-tenths of a percent or just over one-tenth of a percent, respectively. In 2020, President Trump again carried Florida, but with a small 3.4 percent cushion.

Yet in 2022, the margins began to drastically change. Gov. DeSantis posted a victory margin of just under 20 percentage points, and then-Sen. Marco Rubio recorded a win of better than 16 points even while spending $30 million less than his opponent.

Moving to 2024, President Trump clinched Florida with a 13-point cushion, which translates into a victory spread of more than 1.4 million votes. Such is an improvement greater than 1.2 million votes when compared to four years earlier. Sen. Scott then skated to a re-election victory that fell slightly under 1.4 million cast ballots.

While Florida’s rightward move was certainly driven through voter registration and conservative voters moving to the state from other places, it didn’t take long for the voting patterns to follow suit. Expect this trend to continue in the open 2024 Governor’s race, hence Rep. Donalds’ strategy to lock down the party nomination early will pay major dividends.

Virginia Governor’s Election Set

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Governor

Though Virginia’s June primary is still two months away, the general election has unofficially already begun.

The nominees for Governor are already effectively set because the state’s signature petition deadline expired on April 3, and the Secretary of the Commonwealth has indicated that just two individuals, one in each party, have qualified.

Expected to conquer the candidate fields from their respective primaries at the outset, former Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears cemented their status as party standard bearers through the mandatory signature petition process.

Virginia requires candidates for statewide office to gather at least 10,000 valid registered voter signatures to qualify for the ballot. At least 400 must come from each of the state’s 11 congressional districts. Therefore, it takes a viable statewide grassroots organization to complete the requirements, and many candidates, including some running for President, have failed to complete this important step.

One reason for the unusually difficult ballot qualification requirements dates back to Virginia’s political history. The state has traditionally nominated candidates through party conventions as opposed to direct primary elections.

Therefore, as an incentive to continue the convention system, the ballot petition process became a deterrent to holding party primaries. Democrats began breaking away from conventions earlier, while Republicans have only routinely opted for statewide primaries in the last two election cycles.

Two potential candidates who failed to qualify this year are former state Sen. Amanda Chase and ex-state Delegate David LaRock, both Republicans. They each entered the GOP primary to run to the right of Earle-Sears but announced their candidacies and began the petition gathering process only a month before the signature deadline.

Though both were talking as if they were prepared to give the Lieutenant Governor a major challenge, it was evident from the outset that their chances of meeting the petition deadline were slim at best. Therefore, it was with little surprise that neither Chase nor LaRock secured a primary ballot line.

The odd-numbered election years have furthermore made the Old Dominion a virtual contrarian bellwether in that the electorate consistently chooses a Governor from the opposite party of the President elected a year earlier.

If Virginia’s partisan gubernatorial pattern continues, Spanberger would have the inside track toward winning the general election. Since the 1976 presidential election, only one time did the Virginia electorate choose a member of the recently elected President’s party for Governor (Terry McAuliffe (D) winning the 2013 election after President Obama had been re-elected in 2012).

Virginia is also the only state that still maintains a four-year term limit for its Governors and has since the 1851 election. Therefore, the state hosts an open race in every gubernatorial cycle. Though it is possible for former Governors to return to the office in subsequent elections, few have ever tried. The most recent to do so is McAuliffe. He returned to run in the 2021 election, but fell to the state’s current chief executive, Republican Glenn Youngkin.

The lack of qualifiers under the state’s onerous petition requirements means Virginia’s June primary will be meaningless in the 2025 Governor’s race. As a result, expect to see a much longer general election cycle this year. The final vote is scheduled for Nov. 4, 2025.

Roundup: Senate, House, Governor, States & Cities Updates

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Senate

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham / Photo by Gage Skidmore

South Carolina — Speculation about a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has largely been extinguished. Last week, President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of the Senator for re-election, which should dissuade a MAGA activist from deciding to primary the four-term incumbent. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) had been publicly musing about challenging Sen. Graham but now appears to have his sights set either for the open Governor’s race or running for re-election.

Fundraising — Two potential US Senate candidates signaled that they are taking their preparatory phase seriously. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) says she is going to report raising over $1.1 million for the first quarter of 2025. The Congresswoman indicates she will decide in the next few weeks about launching a Senate campaign to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI).

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), who is a likely Senate candidate if Sen. Dick Durbin (D) announces his retirement, wasted no time and is reporting raising over $3 million in the first quarter. Federal Election Commission reports will be made public after the 1st quarter filing deadline on April 15.

Minnesota — Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) this week announced that he won’t run for the Senate and instead endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D). It is expected that Ellison will seek re-election to a third term as the state’s AG. Also in the Democratic primary race is former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is still considered as a possible Senate candidate.

Several Republicans have announced, but the party leaders are looking for a strong contender who could run a tough and competitive general election campaign to come forward.

House

AZ-5 — Former professional football place kicker Jay Feeley (R), an ex-member of the Arizona Cardinals football team and CBS Sports sideline reporter, says he is considering entering what will be an open congressional race in Arizona’s 5th District. Additionally, former state Rep. Travis Grantham formally announced his congressional candidacy during the week. A crowded Republican primary is expected to compete to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who is running for Governor. The 5th District with a partisan lean of 58.5R – 39.6D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians is rated as the 87th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

AZ-7 — Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), as expected, announced that she will attempt to succeed her father, the late-Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) in the upcoming special election. The Democratic primary will likely be a battle between Ms. Grijalva and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. Others will comprise the field, but these two will be the principal contenders to win the nomination. The Democratic nomination is virtually tantamount to winning the Sept. 23 special election. Rep. Grijalva passed away on March 13.

CA-32 — Jake Rakov (D), a former staff member for California Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), announced that he will challenge his old boss in the 2026 California jungle primary. Rep. Sherman was first elected in 1996 and has not yet announced whether he will run for a 16th term. Rakov says he is challenging Sherman because of his “inadequate wildfire response, not holding in-person town halls & not doing enough to resist Trump’s “MAGA hellscape.” Talent Agent Chris Ahuja (D) is also a declared candidate. Rep. Sherman is again favored to advance into the general election and retain his seat in the 2026 election.

NY-4 — It appears that we won’t see the third version of the Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) vs. former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) campaign. President Trump announced that D’Esposito will become the Inspector General for the Department of Labor. Previously, the former New York Congressman, who lost his seat to Gillen in November, said he would return for a rematch. Republicans are expected to field a viable candidate to compete for the Long Island seat.

OH-13 — Former state Senator and Representative Kevin Coughlin (R), who lost to Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) by a 51-49 percent tally in November, says he will return to seek a rematch in 2026 in a district that former Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried by just 183 votes. The district, however, may be different than in 2024. Under the Ohio redistricting system and because the current redistricting map was not passed with the required bipartisan support level, the map can only stand for two election cycles. Therefore, expect a new congressional plan to be unveiled in the next few weeks.

Governor

California — Former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General and previous Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) announced his intention to enter the open Governor’s campaign next year. Becerra also said he intends to stay in the race even if former Vice President Kamala Harris decides to run. Former Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) is also a declared candidate.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D), ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) have all indicated they will run but could step aside if Harris decides to enter. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Most of the 2026 attention has focused on whether Harris will run, but she has yet to provide a definitive answer. The only serious Republican candidate is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

Georgia — Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) announced last week that she will not move forward with her plans to run for Governor. She said complications involving her husband’s cancer treatments have changed her plans as she will be devoting more time to helping him. It is expected she will seek re-election to the House, however.

On the other hand, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) announced that she will run for Governor. She will likely face a crowded Democratic primary field.

Republican Attorney General Chris Carr is an announced gubernatorial candidate for the GOP nomination. The Republican primary is expected to feature a number of candidates once term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announces whether he will run for the Senate.

South Carolina — First Tuesday Strategies poll (March 19-21; 500 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & online) finds Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), leading Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, and Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) by a 21-16-7-6 percent margin.

States & Cities

Arkansas — Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) signed legislation that eliminates moving the primary election from cycle to cycle as has been the previous practice. In presidential election years, the Arkansas primary was held in March, but in midterm years the nomination vote returned to its traditional May slot. The new law sets March as the state’s permanent primary month. This means both the 2026 Democratic and Republican primaries will likely be held on March 3.

Boston — Though it was expected that real estate developer Thomas O’Brien (D) would announce his mayoral candidacy during the week, in fact he did the opposite. Mr. O’Brien, brother of Boston College head football coach Bill O’Brien and a former NFL head coach, instead announced that he will not enter the race to oppose incumbent Michelle Wu. Still in the contest is businessman Jonathan Kraft, son of New England Patriots owner Bob Kraft. The September jungle qualifying election is expected to be competitive.

Oakland — A new Oakland mayoral poll suggests that former Rep. Barbara Lee (D) has fallen behind in her quest to succeed ousted Mayor Sheng Thao (D). A new election was called once Thao was recalled from office during the November election. Oakland City Councilman Loren Taylor (D) released his internal EMC Research survey (March 17-20; 400 Oakland likely special election voters) that finds him leading the former veteran Congresswoman 45-40 percent. Previously, Lee led in all published polling but with diminishing margins. In 2024, Ms. Lee risked the US House seat she held for 26 years for an unsuccessful US Senate bid.

St. Louis — It appears that St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones’ (D) days in office are coming to an end. After performing poorly in the mayoral primary, a new Remington Research Group poll finds Alderwoman Cara Spencer (D), who placed first in the primary, enjoying a large 55-31 percent lead in the upcoming runoff election. Four years ago, Jones defeated Spencer but it appears the 2025 election will feature the opposite result.

California Dreamin’

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 21, 2025

Governor

Ric Grenell

An article from the News of the United States (NOTUS) organization published earlier in the week sheds some new light about a potential 2026 Governor’s race in California.
In fact, the article includes comments from several of the state’s GOP House members stating their belief that Republican Ric Grenell might have an outside chance of denying Kamala Harris the office if both choose to run next year.

Grenell is a Trump Administration official who is currently a special envoy along with serving as president and interim executive director of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. Previously, in the first Trump Administration, Grenell was the US Ambassador to Germany and served as the Acting Director of National Intelligence. He has indicated that if Harris were to enter the race, running for Governor of California would be of interest to him.

“I think that we’ve got a good opportunity here because especially if Kamala Harris runs, I think that this will be a race that is very winnable,” says Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento). “I think that there very much is a coalition of Californians who would support a candidate who can deliver on that basic quality of life.”

Rep. Kiley is likely too optimistic. While President Donald Trump substantially improved his political standing within California, Kamala Harris still recorded a 58.5 – 38.3 percent statewide victory. In 2020, Joe Biden’s victory spread over Trump was 63.5 – 34.3 percent.

In 2020, Trump won 23 of California’s 58 counties. In 2024, he performed much better, actually winning a majority of the state’s counties (33 of 58). His problem: in the top 10 most populous counties, Trump prevailed in only three.

Of the top three population counties, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Orange, which account for 40 percent of the total California population, Trump was only able to average 39.7 percent of the vote. While this number is slightly better than his statewide percentage, the major liberal northern California counties of San Francisco, Alameda, San Mateo, Marin, and Santa Clara are not included in the top three most populous. Here, the current President averaged only 20.9 percent.

In 2020, Trump’s average numbers in the three largest counties were even worse: 36.3 percent. In the five sizable northern California counties, he posted a woeful mean average vote percentage of just 18.3.

While the chances of Grenell, or any other Republican, winning the Governorship in 2026 are virtually nil, Trump did increase his standing when compared to 2020 in 57 counties, which is an encouraging number for the GOP. Harris also under-performed President Joe Biden’s California vote totals in all but one county.

While the general election may be out of reach for a Republican, advancing from the state’s jungle primary apparatus is not.

Former Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) has already announced that she will run for Governor. While earlier saying she would stand aside for Harris, her announcement tour made no such declaration. Therefore, if she and Harris are on the all-party ballot with a Republican such as Grenell, it certainly would be within the realm of possibility to see either Porter or Harris not qualify for the general election. Under such a scenario, the primary voters would virtually elect the next Governor.

The other California Republican problem is the large amount of money needed to compete. Former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) was able to advance into the 2024 Senate general election largely because eventual winner Adam Schiff (D) ran ads in the more conservative regions of the state attacking Garvey as being too conservative and close to Trump.

Knowing that he would beat Garvey, or any other Republican in the general election, Schiff virtually financed Garvey’s campaign effort to propel him past Porter, who at that time was also running for Senate.

It is unlikely that we will see such a scenario in 2026. Therefore, Republicans will be forced to raise a large amount of early money to help secure a general election slot and then hope that the political environment would be such that a GOP candidate could score a long-shot win. With so many Senate races in play during this election cycle, it will be a tough sell to convince national major donors to back a Republican gubernatorial contender.

While Grenell may be one of the better candidates that California Republicans could attract, his chances of winning are likely far less than those beginning to promote him would publicly concede.

Florida: Donalds vs. DeSantis

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 17, 2025

Governor

Florida First Lady, Casey DeSantis / Photo by Gage Skidmore

The first poll testing a potentially major battle between two national conservative movement factions was just released.

The impending open Florida Republican gubernatorial primary could feature the state’s First Lady, Casey DeSantis, whose incumbent husband Ron DeSantis is ineligible to seek a third term, and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) who already carries President Donald Trump’s endorsement.

At this point, Rep. Donalds is an announced gubernatorial candidate while Ms. DeSantis has yet to declare her intentions. Gov. DeSantis, however, has publicly hinted that she is at least considering running.

The Fabrizio Lee & Associates research firm went into the field to provide an early read on such a race. Their poll (Feb. 26-27 and released March 10; 600 likely Florida Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees Rep. Donalds jumping out to a slight 34-30 percent lead over Ms. DeSantis. An additional three percent would support Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, who is also a potential GOP gubernatorial candidate.

The results get even more interesting when the respective endorsements are filtered. When the respondents are informed that President Trump publicly supports Rep. Donalds, the ballot test soars to 45-23 percent in the Congressman’s favor.

The contest changes when further information is shared. While it is certainly not surprising that Gov. DeSantis would endorse his wife but when the respondents are told that he will, the ballot test flips. The altered result projects Ms. DeSantis moving ahead of Rep. Donalds, 35-33 percent.

The caveat relating to the previous push question is the respondents were told of Gov. DeSantis’ endorsement of his wife prior to being informed of President Trump’s support for Rep. Donalds, and this situation is highlighted in the Fabrizio Lee analysis.

When all of the endorsement information is presented to the sampling universe, Rep. Donalds reassumes the lead at 38-28 percent over Ms. DeSantis with Simpson increasing to five percent support. Therefore, it is this last ballot test that should be considered the benchmark for future monitoring of this proposed race.

Whether this campaign actually transpires is another question. Ms. DeSantis has certainly not committed to running and is likely a long way from making a final decision. The 2026 Florida primary is not scheduled until Aug. 18, with a state candidate filing deadline of June 12. Therefore, much time remains to contemplate whether she will become an official candidate.

Certainly, the DeSantis decision involves more than calculating victory chances for the First Lady to succeed her husband. Since Ron DeSantis has national ambitions, the political analysis will involve just how much risk the family wants to assume in entering a campaign where a DeSantis could lose to a Trump-endorsed opponent.

At this point, the early presidential political climate doesn’t appear to positively favor a return appearance for Gov. DeSantis despite what should be his appealing record of accomplishment for a conservative voter base.

Since Vice President J.D. Vance is already considered the leading prospect to succeed President Trump as the next Republican nominee, he will be in an extremely strong position to capture the party nomination unless things go badly for the Administration toward the end of their current term.

Therefore, the 2028 presidential playing field will also factor heavily in deciding whether Casey DeSantis runs for Governor in 2026. In any event, we can expect to see the Donalds-DeSantis political drama continue over the next several months.

President or Senator?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 11, 2025

Governor

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

A sitting Governor and a recently retired ex-state chief executive have key political decisions to make soon.

Both Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) are reportedly weighing running for the Senate in 2026 and/or organizing a 2028 presidential campaign. Each says he is not yet ready to announce any future political plans.

A third Governor, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer (D), is in a similar position but she is more definitive about running for President in 2028, so it is highly doubtful that she will enter her state’s open 2026 Senate race.

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D)

The two men are under intense pressure from party leaders to run for the Senate next year. Polling shows both Gov. Kemp, term-limited in 2026, and ex-Gov. Cooper, who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2024 because of North Carolina’s term limit law, leading their respective incumbent Senator of the opposite party, Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Thom Tillis (R-NC).

The latest Georgia poll (WPA Intelligence; Jan. 14-15; 500 likely Georgia voters; live interview) projects Gov. Kemp topping Sen. Ossoff, 46-40 percent, while the other tested potential challengers, i.e., Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), and Mike Collins (R-Jackson), all trail.

A new Public Policy Polling survey of North Carolina general election voters (March 4-5; 662 registered North Carolina voters) sees two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R) beginning his re-election effort four points behind Cooper, 47-43 percent.

While it is typical to see a Republican trailing in a North Carolina poll – there is usually a two-point under-poll factor for GOP candidates in the state – a poor Tillis job approval ratio of 25:46 percent favorable to unfavorable according to the PPP data should be of obvious concern. Some of the disapproval is coming from Republican voters, however, who don’t believe Sen. Tillis has been sufficiently loyal to President Donald Trump.

Gov. Kemp says he understands the need to make a decision in the near future but will not do so until the Georgia state legislative session adjourns shortly after the beginning of next month. Kemp is also chairman of the Republican Governors’ Association, which he says significantly adds to his time commitments for the 2026 election cycle.

For his part, Cooper says he will make a decision about running for the Senate “in the next couple of months.”

For North Carolina’s Cooper, running for President may be an easier decision than for Gov. Kemp. In what will be an open 2028 presidential campaign for both parties, the Democratic field will be in free-for-all status because they do not have an incumbent Vice President. With the paucity of Democratic elected officials coming from the south, Cooper could reasonably build a southern strategy in the Democratic primaries that would make him a major factor with a large number of committed delegates.

For Gov. Kemp, the presidential road to the Republican nomination would be rockier since incumbent VP J.D. Vance should have the inside track to the 2028 party nomination. While sitting Vice Presidents have often not fared well in general elections, they have been near perfect in securing party nominations. With Vance already knowing the 2028 presidential campaign will be open, he would begin such a campaign with a major advantage.

At this point, however, since we usually don’t see recent Governors running for Senate because they often find the transition from an executive to being one of 100 in a legislative body difficult, it would not be shocking to see both men decline the Senate opportunity.

If so, the Georgia Republicans are ready with a political bench. Already the aforementioned three Representatives: Carter, McCormick, and Collins, are waiting in the wings to run for the Senate, and there are seven additional GOP statewide officers each with a winning electoral record.

In North Carolina, the Democrats have five sitting statewide officials, although two are unlikely to run for the Senate. Gov. Josh Stein (D) was just elected in November and probably would not give up his current position so quickly to run for the Senate.

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, who was elected in 1996 when defeating NASCAR champion Richard Petty (R) and will turn 80 years old shortly after the November 2026 election, is another who will not run for the Senate.

The other office holders, including Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt, the daughter of former Gov. Jim Hunt and an ex-Charlotte area state Senator, could become Senate candidates. The other statewide Democratic officials who were elected in 2024 and would have a 2026 free ride, are Attorney General and former Congressman Jeff Jackson and Superintendent of Public Instruction Mo Green.

In the US House delegation, Reps. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill/Rocky Mount), Deborah Ross (D-Raleigh), and Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill) could conceivably enter a US Senate race. Therefore, even without MCooper, the Democrats will have credible options with whom to challenge Sen. Tillis.

Regardless of who challenges the incumbent Senators in Georgia and North Carolina, both states will be on the 2026 political front burner.

Is Sherrod Brown Tipping His Hand?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 6, 2025

Senate/Governor

Former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)

Former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) just published a long 4,000-plus word essay in the New Republic magazine in which he tries to chart for the Democratic Party a new path forward. (Read article here: New Republic magazine article)

The article also may signal Brown’s willingness to make an electoral comeback attempt in either the 2026 Ohio Senate or Governor’s race.

In the article, Brown says, “… Democrats must reckon with how far our party has strayed from our New Deal roots.” And, “How we see ourselves — the party of the people, the party of the working class and the middle class — no longer matches up with what most voters think.”

He further explains, “… our party’s problem with workers isn’t a two or a four-year problem. It goes back at least to the North American Free Trade Agreement.” And, “People … expected Republicans to sell them out to multinational corporations. But we were supposed to be the party that looked out for these workers — to be on their side, to stand up to corporate interests. And as a national party, we failed.”

One of his situational remedies is that, “Democrats must become the workers’ party again.” And, he says, “To become the workers’ party, we need to better understand workers and their lives, and we need to have ordinary workers more actively involved in the party and its decisions.”

While former Sen. Brown’s message toward the working class may have political attractiveness, this same theme landed on deaf ears throughout the very areas of Ohio that his revised message targets. In the 2024 Senate race, which he lost to newly elected Sen. Bernie Moreno (R), 50.1 – 46.5 percent, the incumbent Democrat could only manage to carry eight of the state’s 88 counties.

Seven of those eight domains — all in Ohio’s metropolitan counties and containing the cities of Akron, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, and Toledo — also voted for Kamala Harris. In fact, the only rural, coal country county that both Harris and Brown carried was Athens County, found along the West Virginia border.

The lone county that Brown won where Harris lost was Lorain County, a western suburban Cleveland entity that Brown represented during his seven-term tenure in the US House. All of Ohio’s other 80 counties voted for both Donald Trump and Moreno.

In Ohio’s 2026 political situation, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is term-limited, meaning there will be an open Governor’s race. The GOP nominee will likely be either businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who already carries an endorsement from President Trump, or two-term Attorney General Dave Yost.

In the Senate, appointed incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R), the state’s former two-term Lieutenant Governor and previous two-term Secretary of State, will be defending his seat on the ballot for the first time.

Therefore, if former Sen. Brown is planning to make a run for either office, this article may be laying the groundwork as to how he will deliver his pitch during the 2026 campaign to an electorate that just rejected him.

His long record of winning, however, through campaigns for the Ohio House of Representatives, Secretary of State, US House, and US Senate, and losing only one time since originally being elected in 1974, suggests he will be a formidable candidate able to develop a unique message should he decide to run for either of the statewide offices.

It will be interesting to see what Brown decides, since he is clearly the strongest potential candidate in the Ohio Democratic stable despite his 2024 loss. The Governor’s race might make the most sense for a political comeback instead of attempting to regain a seat that he lost.

To begin with, the Governor’s race is open, and the term will be four years. The Senate race would be against an appointed, but well-known, incumbent and decided upon federal issues that clearly cut against the Democrats in the last election.

Additionally, even if Brown were to defeat Sen. Husted in the 2026 special election, he would then have to immediately turn around and face another campaign in the 2028 election cycle for the full six-year term.

The Ohio situation is worth monitoring because as Sen. Brown points out in his article, change must happen if the Democratic Party is to quickly rebound from their 2024 losses.

Recruiting Governors for the Senate

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2024

Governor

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Over the weekend, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who now serves as chairman of the Republican Governors Association, was again asked in an interview if he will challenge first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year. As has been his practice, the Governor’s response was non-committal.

Looking at the national Senate picture for the 2026 election cycle, we see many sitting or recently term-limited Governors in a similar position to that of Gov. Kemp. In fact, there are a total of seven term-limited state chief executives who could challenge a Senator of the opposite party next year. Presidential aspirations could also play a significant role in determining which Governors might run for the Senate versus those who would want to concentrate on entering what will be an open 2028 presidential race for both parties.

In addition to Gov. Kemp, the four Governors attracting the most Senate attention are also the most prominent ones said to be weighing their national prospects.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), whose term ends at the beginning of 2026, is in position to challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D). Gov. Youngkin was discussed as a possible Vice Presidential candidate and appears to have the desire to run for President. What he may decide is unclear right now. For the Senate, though he is the best possible candidate for the GOP, Gov. Youngkin would still be at least a slight underdog to Sen. Warner.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) won’t leave office until the beginning of 2028, but he would be the best Democratic candidate to enter the now open 2026 Senate race. He has previously said he wouldn’t run for the Senate but has not ruled out running for President. Still, he will be under strong pressure from national Democrats to run for the Senate since he is realistically the only Kentuckian who may be able to deny the Republicans from hanging on to retiring Mitch McConnell’s seat.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is standing for a third term in North Carolina, a state that always features close races, and the 2026 campaign appears as no exception to that electoral pattern. Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) was term-limited in 2024 and has been actively looking at both a Senate and presidential run. Like Gov. Youngkin, Gov. Cooper was also considered as a Vice Presidential running mate.

Cooper, of the four Governors with presidential hopes, appears most open to launching a Senate bid. He has said several times that he will make a decision “within a few months.”

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) has been commonly associated with a 2028 presidential run. With Sen. Gary Peters (D) retiring, the Michigan Senate race will become one of the hottest 2026 campaigns. Since Sen. Peters has surprisingly left the Senate seat open, party leaders will certainly attempt to persuade Gov. Whitmer to jump into the race.

The party hierarchy’s argument to her should be bolstered since early 2026 Senate campaign polls find Republican former Congressman and close 2024 Senate finisher Mike Rogers leading ex-US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg tops a potential Democratic primary by a spread beyond the polling margin of error.

Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) cannot seek re-election, but she will draw attention from the national Democratic leaders who are desperately looking to find a credible candidate against first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R). Though Gov. Kelly has not indicated any interest in the Senate race, nor talked about running for President, it will not escape the party strategists that she would make a race against Sen. Marshall very competitive.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D), her public rift with President Trump notwithstanding, is also term-limited and could challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R). Gov. Mills would be 79 years old should she try to begin a Senate career by running in 2026. Previously, she has deflected questions about challenging Sen. Collins, but after going to war with President Trump over transgenders in school sports, her desire about entering the federal political ring may be changing.

In 2020, Democratic nominee Sara Gideon spent more than $64 million to try to defeat Sen. Collins — not counting millions more in outside spending — and led in almost all polling; however, she failed to even make the final result close, as Sen. Collins was re-elected with a 50-42 percent victory margin. Though Gov. Mills would be a stronger candidate, upending Sen. Collins still would be a difficult task.

Many 2026 questions remain to be answered, but it is possible that we could see an abnormally high number of seriously challenged Senate races soon unfolding.

Ohio: Ramaswamy In, Trump Endorses

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2025

Governor

Republican Vivek Ramaswamy / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) released his official Ohio Governor’s campaign website at the end of last week, thus kicking off the contest to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine (R) and yesterday he received a big boost.

The Republican primary race already appears to be evolving into a two-way battle between Ramaswamy, leading in all early nomination campaign polling, and two-term Attorney General Dave Yost.

A newly released Yost campaign survey, however, suggests the race could eventually tighten, and that an endorsement from President Donald Trump for one of the candidates could prove determinative. Yesterday, the President gave Ramaswamy his “complete and total endorsement.”

The National Public Affairs polling organization conducted an early February Ohio survey for the Yost campaign (Feb. 2-5; 602 likely Ohio Republican primary voters; live interview and text) and, like other research studies, found Ramaswamy posting a major lead, 46-18 percent.

Earlier, WPA Intelligence (Jan. 28-30; 600 likely Ohio Republican primary voters) saw Ramaswamy holding a 57-28 percent advantage over Yost. The Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm also tested the state in late January (Jan. 26-27; 600 likely Ohio Republican primary voters) and projected the Ohio entrepreneur topping AG Yost with a 52-18 percent margin while the since withdrawn State Treasurer Robert Sprague posted two percent preference. (Mr. Sprague, term-limited in the coming election as Ohio’s Treasurer, quickly dropped out of the Governor’s race and instead entered the open Secretary of State’s contest endorsing Ramaswamy as he exited.)

While all of the released public polls basically arrive at the same conclusion, NPA provided further information in their survey analysis that attempts to cast the largely uniform results in a different political light.

According to NPA partner Justin Clark, “our findings indicate that this early advantage is a ‘sugar high’ driven by a pre-inauguration media saturation that led to high name ID and perceived association with President Trump. That said, even at this high point of public opinion, polling support for Ramaswamy is incredibly soft. Beyond the temporal component of his losing the “sugar high” after quitting the Trump administration before it even started, the survey is clear that voters align closest to the candidate that receives the backing of President Trump … whoever that candidate is.”

We now know who Trump will endorse and it’s Ramaswamy. The Yost pollsters clearly understand the impact of presidential support in the Republican primary as their polling analysis explains.

After a series of unreleased push questions that constituted what NPA described as the “informed ballot” brought Yost within one point of Ramaswamy, the horse race question was then asked to determine what effect Trump endorsing the Attorney General would have on the primary election. If such were the case, Yost would pull ahead of Ramaswamy, 42-22 percent; hence, the power of an early Trump endorsement.

In terms of the favorability index, President Trump maintains an 82-16 percent positive to negative ratio and Vice President and former Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance scores an almost identical 81:16 percent. Ramaswamy posts a 64:15 percent score, which is better than newly elected Sen. Bernie Moreno (65:22 percent), and Attorney General Yost (53:14 percent), though all the sampled Republican primary voters viewed each tested figure very favorably.

Clearly, Ramaswamy wants to deliver an early knockout blow, and it appears he has the assets to make that happen. With a big lead in early polling and, as of yesterday, Trump’s endorsement, it appears the former presidential candidate has the package he needs to secure the Republican nomination. With that, he will have the inside track for the general election in a state that is trending more Republican.

The only Democrat to so far announce for Governor is former Ohio Health Department director Amy Acton. Other, and likely stronger, potential candidates are waiting in the wings. It is unclear if any or all of the following would make a gubernatorial run, but some from this group are likely to try.

Those Democrats mentioned as considering a bid for Governor are: former Senator Sherrod Brown, Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval, Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb, Columbus Mayor Andy Ginther, state Supreme Court Justice and former Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and former Congressman, 2016 presidential candidate, and 2022 US Senate nominee Tim Ryan.

Ex-Ohio State Football Coach Appointed Lieutenant Governor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 13, 2024

Governor

Jim Tressel

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) announced at a news conference that he has appointed former Ohio State head football coach and ex-Youngstown State University president Jim Tressel to fill the state’s vacant Lieutenant Governor’s position.

The office came open when the Governor appointed Jon Husted (R) to the US Senate to replace Vice President J.D. Vance. Immediately, reporters pummeled Tressel with questions regarding whether he would run for Governor next year, queries that both he and DeWine avoided answering.

In Ohio, the Lieutenant Governor runs on a ticket with the Governor. In 2018, during the open Republican primary, Husted, then Secretary of State, was competing against DeWine in the Republican gubernatorial primary along with then-Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor. Because it appeared that DeWine and Husted could split the center-right vote, which could reasonably have allowed Taylor to win after consolidating the political right, a deal was cut.

Husted offered then-Attorney General DeWine a proposition where he would exit the Governor’s race and run as the latter’s Lieutenant Governor running mate. DeWine accepted the arrangement and the two went onto victories in both the 2018 Republican primary and general elections. In 2022, the DeWine-Husted ticket won re-election with just over 62 percent of the vote.

Their teamwork plan included DeWine then supporting Husted for Governor in 2026, something that the Governor was prepared to do until the state’s junior Senator, J.D. Vance, was elected Vice President. At first, the Lieutenant Governor indicated he wanted to stay in the Governor’s race and battle Attorney General Dave Yost for the party nomination. It always appeared, however, that Husted was the obvious choice to take the Senate seat and was eventually prevailed upon to take that role.

Now businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is, with great fanfare, about to enter the Republican gubernatorial primary and polling suggests he begins with an overwhelming lead. State Treasurer Robert Sprague, who was briefly a gubernatorial candidate, exited the Governor’s race and endorsed Ramaswamy who is not yet even an official contender. Term-limited Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2022 and was considered a potential entry into the Governor’s race, late last week announced instead a bid for state Auditor.

Therefore, DeWine’s move to Tressel could be a plan to at least make the Republican gubernatorial campaign more competitive should the latter man, popular with high name ID due to his championship run as an Ohio State football coach, decide to run for Governor.

Tressel coached at Ohio State for 10 years and won a national championship. He resigned under a cloud, however, as the university was cited for recruitment violations under his domain. Prior to his coaching tenure with the state’s premier college football program, he coached for 14 seasons at Youngstown State. Regardless of the details concerning his exit from Ohio State, Tressel still enjoys a generally positive personal image.

At the apex of his coaching career, it was speculated upon that Tressel might mount challenges to then-Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). In both of those election years, however, Tressel chose not to run. Therefore, it is far from certain that he will enter the current Governor’s race.

For his part, Ramaswamy says he will make “a big announcement” in late February. All expect him to announce his gubernatorial candidacy at that time. Certainly, his involvement, and now possibly Tressel’s, is making the open Ohio Governor’s campaign possibly the premier 2026 political contest in terms of attracting national media attention. Expect this pattern to continue for quite some time.