Category Archives: Governor

Steyer Declares War

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 16, 2026

Governor

California businessman and investor Tom Steyer / Facebook photo

Just two days after Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) dropped out of the California Governor’s race and then announced his resignation from the US House over sexual assault accusations, Democratic gubernatorial and billionaire businessman and investor Tom Steyer, who could become the race’s leading candidate, made an unorthodox and controversial campaign move.

Steyer, who has already spent over $90 million of his personal wealth to promote his gubernatorial campaign has a chance to become the top Democratic candidate and qualify for the general election in the state’s top two primary system.

Party leaders are concerned that the primary vote would be split among so many Democratic candidates (23) that two Republicans, namely former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, could capture first and second place. Such a result would freeze any Democratic candidates from advancing to the general election.

The shutout fear also explains why party leaders were beginning to coalesce around Swalwell, believing he had the best chance of securing a general election qualifying position. Now, without him in the race, the party leaders need to focus on another candidate to avoid the shutout.

Tom Steyer is a former presidential candidate who began as an Independent but later became a Democrat. He is a controversial figure, and one not likely to commit his complete allegiance to party leaders as readily as would many of the other Democratic contenders.

The Steyer new policy objective declares war on ICE and advocates the following principles in his released plan:

  • Abolish ICE – Put ICE agents in jail & “treat them like the mob.”
  • Bring those “kidnapped & detained by ICE back home.”
  • Give the California Attorney General the power to imprison ICE agents & their leadership.
  • Have taxpayer funded legal representation & support for illegal aliens.
  • Ignore a SCOTUS ruling that allows ICE to utilize to use race, language, job, and location to contribute to “reasonable suspicion” for immigration arrests, and instead, California should take matters into our own hands and extend legal protections to its residents, despite the federal government’s failure.

Launching such a controversial policy statement, and one that is extreme even by California standards, may prove the exact wrong strategy to employ just when he could now move to the top of the massive 62-person candidate field.

It is important to remember that all voters are eligible to participate in the June 2 qualifying election, not just Democratic Party members as would be the case in a closed primary; going to extremes on the immigration issue, then, even to the point of basically declaring civil war on the federal government, may not be a successful proposition.

While California is one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, and a party candidate’s victory in the 2026 general election is already viewed as a foregone conclusion by most political observers, a Democrat finalist’s margin in some statewide campaigns is not insurmountable.

Most Republican candidates attract about 40 percent of the general election vote, and most Democratic winners secure their statewide positions in the high 50s.

Therefore, while the Democratic base is certainly anti-ICE, it may be a stretch for Steyer to assume that the majority of even California Democratic voters want to jail law enforcement officers, bring back deported aliens, ignore the US Supreme Court, and virtually break the state away from the United States.

The Steyer immigration policy document now brings yet another point of controversy into the California Governor’s campaign and may open the door for another Democrat to emerge as the party’s top candidate. Such a Democratic candidate might better attract traditional party support and gain the necessary momentum to overtake Steyer and secure a general election position.

Or, these latest turn of events in the California Governor’s campaign could lend more credence to the idea that a pair of Republicans, Hilton the Fox News host, or Bianco the law enforcement officer, could actually secure both general election slots and shut out the entire Democratic field for the general election.

Klobuchar Announces for Governor

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Governor

Minnesota Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar

As expected, Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar has now officially entered the open Minnesota gubernatorial campaign with her announcement late last week.

Previously, she filed a gubernatorial campaign committee as a prelude to her formal declaration. Just re-elected to the Senate in 2024, Klobuchar does not have to risk her Senate seat to run for Governor.

It appears the four-term Senator and former Hennepin County Attorney is a lock for the Democratic nomination and will likely become the official party nominee at the state Democratic endorsing convention to be scheduled well before Minnesota’s Aug. 11 primary election. She will also be favored in the general election, but it remains to be seen what type of effort the Republicans will launch now that the race has drastically changed since incumbent Gov. Tim Walz (D) surprisingly ended his quest for a third term.

In all likelihood, Sen. Klobuchar will win the Governor’s race and then appoint her own successor to the US Senate. If this happens, the appointed Senator will have the opportunity of running to fill the balance of the term in 2028 and would be eligible to seek a full six-year term in 2030.

Klobuchar is the fourth Senator this year running for Governor in their respective state. Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) have also launched gubernatorial campaigns.

Tuberville is the only in-cycle Senator, however, as he risks his seat to run for Governor. His move looks to pay political dividends. Candidate filing has closed in Alabama, and he faces only minor opposition in the Republican primary. Only insurance agent Ken McFeeters and civic center manager Will Santivasci are competing against him for the party nomination in the May 19 primary.

After being nominated, Sen. Tuberville is likely to square off against former US Sen. Doug Jones who is in equally strong position to win the Democratic nomination. The general election will be a rematch of the 2020 Senate race, a campaign that Tuberville won easily, 60.1 – 39.7 percent.

The Senate election to replace Tuberville will likely be decided in the Republican nomination process. The principal contenders are Attorney General Steve Marshall, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson, and former Trump White House aide Morgan Murphy. Early polling favors AG Marshall, but President Trump has now endorsed Rep. Moore.

The Colorado race has produced at least one surprise. It appears that Sen. Bennet will have a fight on his hands in the Democratic primary against term-limited Attorney General Phil Weiser. According to the latest state financial disclosure report, AG Weiser has raised more in the way of campaign funds than Sen. Bennet. The numbers find Weiser accumulating $4.6 million in 2025 versus $3.5 million for his major opponent. Weiser also reported a $3.4 to $1.6 million cash-on-hand advantage.

There has only been one published poll of the Democratic race, which was released last June from the Global Strategy Group, a well-known Democratic professional polling firm. The ballot test found Sen. Bennet opening with a healthy 53-22 percent lead.

The winner of the state’s June 30 primary election will become a prohibitive favorite to clinch the general election and succeed term-limited Gov. Jared Polis (D).

The Tennessee gubernatorial campaign is also likely to be decided in the party primary, but this time on the Republican side. Sen. Blackburn’s principal opponent is Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville), and Blackburn is a heavy favorite to win the party nomination and the general election.

Sen. Blackburn has dominated the early polls. The most recent release came in late October from Targoz Market Research and projected Sen. Blackburn with a 58-9 percent landslide advantage over Rep. Rose. Large margins have also been present in the three other publicly released polls earlier in the year.

Assuming all four Senators win their race, three of them will likely choose their own successor unless the outgoing Governor makes the Senate appointment as he is leaving office.

Rumors suggest that in two of the three cases the outgoing Governor, himself, Polis in Colorado and Walz in Minnesota, could become the appointed Senator. Therefore, the four Senators running for Governor will also produce post-election political drama just as 2027 begins.

Klobuchar Files Gov. Committee;
Minnesota Senate Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Governor

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

It appears Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) is moving closer to entering the Minnesota open Governor’s race, and her official announcement could come this week.

Toward the end of last week, Sen. Klobuchar filed a state campaign committee for the purpose of preparing a gubernatorial bid. The act of filing, in and of itself, does not mean an individual is an official candidate, but the prevailing Minnesota political reports suggest that launching her candidacy is imminent.

Since Gov. Tim Walz (D) had announced his intention to seek a third term but then withdrew at the height of publicity over the public assistance program fraud scandal, the potential Democratic candidate field found itself virtually frozen because of Sen. Klobuchar’s likely candidacy.

It is apparent that a Klobuchar entry would virtually seal the party’s gubernatorial nomination so Republican candidate speculation comes to the forefront. Former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen is the most likely GOP prospect, and he has confirmed his interest in a potential run.

Other possible Republican candidates are state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-Cold Spring), state Rep. Peggy Bennett (R-Albert Lea), state Rep. Kristin Robbins (R-Maple Grove), ex-St. Cloud City Councilman Jeff Johnson, agribusiness company CEO Patrick Knight, and several minor candidates. Regardless of who wins the GOP nomination, Sen. Klobuchar will be rated a heavy favorite to win the governorship. If successful, she would then appoint her own successor to the Senate.

The state’s other Senate seat hosts an open race, too, because incumbent Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring. Here, we see a competitive two-way Democratic primary developing between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

While Rep. Craig has a financial advantage, and we will soon see the updated financial totals on the Federal Election Commission 2025 year-end report, Lt. Gov. Flanagan has the early polling lead.

Poll

A just released Public Policy Polling survey (Jan. 16-17; 976 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) finds Flanagan leading Rep. Craig, 40-28 percent.

The follow-up questions show that the Minnesota Democratic base is strongly liberal. When asked whether the respondent would be more or less likely to vote for Rep. Craig if they knew she voted to support the Laken Riley Act “that allows the deportation and detention of undocumented immigrants suspected of a nonviolent crime (PPP wording),” 59 percent responded less likely.

Additionally, 71 percent of those surveyed say they would be less likely to vote for Rep. Craig when knowing that she supported a congressional resolution “that included language expressing gratitude to ICE.”

On the secondary ballot test question, asked after reading the aforementioned responses, the Flanagan lead increases to a heightened 54-22 percent. Therefore, it appears Rep. Craig begins the election year as the underdog.

The Congresswoman’s difficulty factor will likely grow after the Minnesota state endorsing convention, held well before the Aug. 11 primary. Lt. Gov. Flanagan will be favored to win the official party endorsement from the attending convention delegates.

Typically, under Minnesota political tradition, most candidates who lose the endorsement vote end their campaign. It is becoming apparent, however, that Rep. Craig, should she lose, will force a primary campaign.

The state of Minnesota has attracted a great deal of national news attention in the past few weeks, and it appears the domain’s 2026 elections will draw even more.

Walz Out, Klobuchar In?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Governor

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) yesterday announced that he is ending his bid for a third gubernatorial term and, perhaps more surprisingly, veteran US Senator and former presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar (D) is reportedly seriously considering entering what will now be an open Governor’s race.

The unexpected turn of events appears directly connected to the controversy surrounding the alleged fraud claims regarding certain Minnesota public assistance programs. Clearly, the Governor’s internal polling revealed his chances of winning re-election have greatly diminished; hence, his rather abrupt decision to retire.

Should Sen. Klobuchar become a gubernatorial candidate, she will be the fourth senator choosing to run for governor in the 2026 election cycle. The others are Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN). From this group, only Sen. Tuberville is risking his Senate seat to enter his state’s Governor’s campaign. The others, including Sen. Klobuchar, would all have a free ride relating to their current position and be in position to choose their own US Senate successor via appointment.

At this point in Minnesota, 11 Republicans have announced their gubernatorial campaigns including 2022 gubernatorial nominee and former state Sen. Scott Jensen, state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-Rocori) and state Reps. Peggy Bennett (R-Albert Lea) and Kristin Robbins (R-Maple Grove).

It is unclear how the Walz retirement and potential Klobuchar entry will affect the burgeoning Republican field. In any event, considering Minnesota’s reliably Democratic voting history, the eventual party nominee, and particularly if it is Sen. Klobuchar, will be favored to win the general election. With the candidate filing deadline not until June 2 for the Aug. 11 primary election, much time remains for each party’s field to gel.

As previously mentioned, should Sen. Klobuchar run for and be elected Governor, she would appoint her successor. The appointed individual would then presumably compete in a 2028 special election to serve the balance of the term. In this case, because Sen. Klobuchar was re-elected in 2024, the appointed Senator, after winning the special election, would then have the opportunity of seeking a full six-year term in 2030.

Should the Klobuchar scenario occur, Minnesota would then have two freshmen Senators during the next Congress similar to the situation we currently see in Ohio. Because Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring, the state’s in-cycle race is also open.

Gov. Walz was first elected to his statewide post in 2018 and re-elected in 2022. He averaged 53.1 percent of the vote in his two statewide campaigns. Prior to running for Governor, Walz represented the state’s southern 1st Congressional District for six terms. He then, of course, became the 2024 Vice Presidential nominee on the national Democratic ticket with Kamala Harris. Prior to his entry into elective politics, Walz was a high school geography teacher and football coach.

Nationally, 36 gubernatorial elections will be held later this year. In those 36 campaigns, 18 incumbents, down from 19 with the Walz decision, will seek re-election and the remaining 18 states will feature open gubernatorial competition. Within the group of 36 in-cycle states, each party currently holds 18 Governor’s chairs.

Merry Christmas & Happy New Year; Weekly Political Synopsis

Just a quick last post this holiday season before we take a break till the New Year.

All the best for a wonderful holiday season.

We’ll be back on Monday, Jan. 5, 2026!

By Jim Ellis — Dec. 24, 2025

Senate

Minnesota — While the Republican Party leadership waits for retired national sports reporter Michele Tafoya to make a decision about running for the Senate, former GOP state chairman David Hann announced that he will enter the race. Hann, who was ousted as chairman and lost his state Senate seat when running for re-election, does not have a strong base within the party. Therefore, he is unlikely to be a major threat. It will be important to watch unfolding developments around the Minnesota government benefit fraud scandal to see if the Democrats become weakened.

The Democratic Senate primary features Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake). At this point, the eventual Democratic nominee will continue to have the inside track toward winning the general election.

House

CT-1 — The Democratic primary challenger field opposing veteran Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford) just got smaller. Former Southington Councilman Jack Perry ended his campaign because he did not see a path to victory. Three Larson intra-party challengers remain, however. They are: former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford), and Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune.

This is obviously a strong field, but the number of candidates in a plurality primary system could split the anti-incumbent vote to the point where Rep. Larson wins re-election with a small plurality. The Connecticut candidate filing deadline is June 9 for the Aug. 11 primary election. Therefore, much time remains for this race to develop.

FL-23 — Republicans have recruited a strong challenger to two-term Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland). Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer (R) announced that he will challenge Moskowitz next year. With redistricting set to happen during the next legislative session, it is clear that the GOP map drawers will add Republicans to the 23rd CD. Under the current map, the partisan lean is 52.3D – 45.5R (Dave’s Redistricting App calculation) and Rep. Moskowitz has averaged just 51.9 percent in his two elections. Therefore, this will very likely be a race to monitor throughout the campaign cycle.

NC-3 — While the North Carolina Republican redistricting plan was geared toward making Rep. Don Davis’ 1st CD more Republican, a seat that became more Democratic is the neighboring 3rd District of Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville). The original District 3 partisan lean was 57.2R – 40.7D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. Under the new plan that makes CD-1 more Republican, CD-3 drops to 52.8R – 45.2D, a net swing of 8.9 data points in the Democrats’ favor.

Not surprisingly, two prominent Democrats jumped into the District 3 race as candidate filing closed. Ex-state Rep. Raymond Smith and the former CEO of The Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America organization, Allison Jaslow, both entered the Democratic primary race. The winner of the March 3 primary will then face Rep. Murphy in the general election. Though this is district is more competitive, it is still a Republican seat, and the Congressman will again be favored for re-election.

Governor

California — We see another poll release that finds the large California open jungle qualifying election field again closely bunched. The California Issues Forum just released the results of their FM3 poll (Nov. 30-Dec. 7; 632 likely California jungle election voters; live interview & online) and actually found two Republicans leading the large group.

Former Fox News host Steve Hilton (R) leads with 18 percent, followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Biano (R), Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore), former Rep. Katie Porter (D), billionaire Tom Steyer (D), former US Health and Human Services Secretary and ex-Attorney General and Congressman Xavier Becerra (D), and previous Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D). After Hilton’s 18 percent support figure, the remaining candidates break down respectively at 17-17-13-6-3-3 percent preference numbers.

There is a scenario, though unlikely yet this poll result shows it could possibly happen, that the large number of Democratic candidates split the vote and the two Republicans advance to the general election with small percentages. The California qualifying election is June 2. The top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation and percentage attained, advance to the general election. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Ohio — For the second time in a week-long period, a newly released poll finds the presumptive Ohio open race gubernatorial nominees deadlocked. The T. Roosevelt Action group, an organization representing hunters and anglers, publicized their poll results (Dec. 3-8; 603 likely Ohio general election voters) that project Republican businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy leading ex-Ohio Health Director Amy Acton (D) by a slight 45-43 percent count. Last week, Emerson College (Dec. 6-8; 850 likely Ohio general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) found Acton holding a similar 46-45 percent edge.

The purpose of the T. Roosevelt Action poll was to test a ballot proposition regarding hunting and fishing, but they also included a Governor’s race query on their questionnaire. The Ohio Governor’s race is open because incumbent Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek re-election.

Sen. Lummis to Retire; Stefanik Out

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 22, 2025

Wyoming Senate

Wyoming first-term Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R)

In what had been rumored in Wyoming political circles for several weeks, first-term Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) announced that she will not seek re-election next year. While saying it was the “honor of [her] life” to serve Wyoming in the Senate, Lummis said in her retirement release that at 71 years of age she does not have the energy to serve another six-year term at her current pace.

The Lummis decision means there are nine open US Senate seats, which is a high number in an election cycle with just over one-third of the 100-member body coming before the voters. Now, the political speculation turns toward who may run to replace Sen. Lummis.

Already at issue is whether Gov. Mark Gordon (R) will make a move to challenge the state’s two-term limit law. Based upon a legal flaw, attorneys and analysts believe that challenging the law in court would be successful. Therefore, Gov. Gordon may have a chance of running for a third term. It remains to be seen if the Lummis retirement influences his decision.

Most believe the Governor will not seek re-election and probably is not inclined to run for the Senate. With the candidate filing deadline not until May 29 for the Aug. 18 primary, much time remains to make political decisions.

Wyoming is arguably the most Republican state in the country, at least as President Trump is concerned. In the past two presidential elections, the Equality State was Trump’s best-performing domain with an average vote percentage of 70.3. In 2016, Wyoming giving him 67.4 percent of its votes was his second-best state behind only West Virginia. Therefore, the eventual US Senate Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite to hold the seat for the party in the general election.

This brings us to at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne). The conventional Wyoming political wisdom suggested that if Gordon retired, Rep. Hageman would run for Governor, and the most contested political battle would be the open race to replace her in the House.

Now, should Gov. Gordon retire, Rep. Hageman could choose among entering the open Governor’s race, the open Senate campaign, or simply seeking re-election. The odds are strong that she would be a heavy favorite to win whichever contest she selects with a major open-seat Republican primary battle ensuing for the other two statewide posts.

NY Governor

On Friday, New York Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) announced that she will discontinue her campaign for Governor and retire from the House at the end of the current Congress. The latter decision does not change the open-seat count because she was already relinquishing the congressional seat to enter the gubernatorial campaign.

Toward the end of last week, Siena College released their New York statewide poll (Dec. 8-12; 801 registered New York voters; live interview & online) that finds Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) re-establishing a strong lead over both Rep. Stefanik and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R).

Against Rep. Stefanik, Siena sees the current Governor leading 49-30 percent. Polling results such as this, and assuming the Stefanik campaign internal data is producing similar totals, is likely a major factor in the Congresswoman’s decision to end her statewide bid.

In the battle for Rep. Stefanik’s open House seat, Democrats already have one candidate who has been campaigning for the better part of the year. When the Congresswoman was the President’s original nominee for US Ambassador to the United Nations, and it appeared a replacement special election would be called in CD-21, the district’s Democratic county chairs chose dairyman Blake Gendebien as their nominee.

Though holding a special election became unnecessary, Gendebien continued his campaign and reported having just over $2 million in his campaign account according to the Sept. 30 campaign financial disclosure report. Gendebien now has three Democratic opponents for the regular election, the most serious of whom appears to be former Deputy Assistant US Trade Rep. Dylan Hewitt.

On the Republican side, the current two top contenders are state Assemblyman Robert Smullen (R-Mohawk Valley) and businessman Anthony Constantino, who has already loaned his campaign $2 million.

New York’s 21st District occupies almost the entire land area of the state’s northeastern sector. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the partisan lean is 52.1R – 44.6D, which certainly gives the eventual Republican nominee an edge but also suggests the general election could turn competitive.

Ohio’s Significance

Ohio Congressional redistricting map. To see interactive map, click on image above or here: Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025

Ohio

The Buckeye State of Ohio is another key 2026 electoral state. With an open Governor’s race, an appointed Senator seeking his first federal election, and as many as three top congressional campaigns, Ohio is clearly a place of significance in determining how the 2026 election will unfold.

A new Emerson College poll (Dec. 6-8; 850 likely Ohio general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) tested both the state’s open Governor’s race and how appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) is faring opposite former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D).

The Ohio political polling history typically features closely competing contests that tend to break, usually toward the Republican candidate, in the last two weeks of the campaign. While Ohio elections have been close over the years, few results have been forced into recounts.

The familiar polling pattern is already beginning. It remains to be seen if the elections will end in a similarly historical fashion.

According to Emerson, Democratic former state Health Director Amy Acton leads businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, 46-45 percent, meaning the open Governor’s contest is a virtual tie. Incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Looking at the Senate race, appointed incumbent Husted records a three point, 49-46 percent, edge over former Sen. Brown. It is important to remember that in Brown’s losing 2024 effort, he received more votes than he did for his last re-election victory (2018) yet still lost to current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) by six percentage points.

As we know, Sen. Husted, at the time of appointment was the state’s sitting Lieutenant Governor, replaced resigned-Sen. J.D. Vance who, of course, left the legislative body to become Vice President. Sen. Husted must now run in 2026 to serve the balance of the current term. He will be eligible to seek a full six-year stint in 2028.

Ohio has also enacted a new congressional redistricting map, an exercise required under state law. Because the 2021 plan was adopted with only majority support in both houses of the legislature, and not a three-fifths count, the congressional map could stand for only two elections, meaning 2022 and 2024.

Last month, the bipartisan elected official redistricting commission, which includes Gov. DeWine, unanimously agreed upon a new map. Since every commissioner supported the new plan, legislative approval was not required under the state’s procedure, meaning the new map automatically became law.

The Ohio US House delegation currently stands at 10R-5D. Republican strategists hoped a new map would yield a two-seat gain, but such a final result could be a stretch under the new design. It does appear the Republicans will net at least one new seat, that of veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo). Competition opposite Reps. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati) and Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) is also possible, particularly for the former.

In 2024, Rep. Kaptur, in a 9th District where the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation was 48.8D – 48.6R, won re-election with just a 48.3 – 47.6 percent margin over then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R). Under the new 2025 enacted plan, the DRA partisan lean is 55.2R – 44.0D, obviously a strong swing toward the eventual Republican nominee.

In Cincinnati’s 1st Congressional District, two-term Rep. Landsman sees his district transform from one that carried a DRA partisan lean 49.9D – 47.9R to a Republican majority seat at 51.6R – 47.5D. With a candidate filing deadline of Feb. 4 for the May 5 primary, the Republican leadership still has some time to find a highly credible challenger to the now vulnerable Democratic Congressman.

The original Republican plan objective called for targeting two-term Rep. Sykes, who had won two close elections from her northern Ohio 13th District. Republicans had a strong candidate in 2024 nominee and former state legislator Kevin Coughlin who came within two percentage points of upsetting Rep. Sykes.

After seeing the new partisan lean calculation of 51.0D – 48.2R, however, Coughlin decided that even this slight swing toward making the district more Democratic was a bridge too far for him to overcome in a midterm election. The previous DRA partisan lean for District 13 was 50.7D – 47.0R. Therefore, he withdrew from the race. Republican leaders are also looking to recruit a strong candidate for this seat.

As you can see, the Buckeye State has a number of crucial races that will determine the state’s direction in electing a new Governor, and possibly the federal outcome, too, with an important Senate race and several hot congressional campaigns.

The Third Hot State

Michigan Congressional Map / To see interactive map, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App, Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 12, 2025

US House

While the most recent attention for flipping the US House has been devoted to the redistricting changes in California and Texas, a third state that did not redistrict will have an equivalent effect upon the 2026 national US House picture.

The Wolverine State of Michigan will be one of the hottest political states in the country for the 2026 election from the top of the ballot to the bottom. Because of the domain’s later April 21 candidate filing deadline and Aug. 4 partisan primary schedule, the early national political focus has been elsewhere, but such does not diminish Michigan’s importance as a ‘26 electoral player.

At the top of the ticket, and for the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and Senate race in the same election cycle. In the House races, we could see major competition in five of the state’s 13 congressional districts. One of those CDs is open, and two others feature freshman members seeking their first re-election.

The Governor’s race will be unique in that it not only projects to be close, but three-term former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent instead of a Democrat means we will see a competitive statewide campaign not just between two candidates, but three.

At this point, it appears that Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) will be the respective Democratic and Republican gubernatorial nominees. Incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to compete for a third term, but we are likely to see more of her as a probable 2028 presidential candidate.

Sen. Gary Peters (D) retiring after two terms has made the Michigan open Senate campaign one of the most competitive in the country and may be the Republicans’ best chance to convert a Democratic seat.

The latest published poll, from Mitchell Research & Communications (Nov. 18-21; 616 likely Michigan general election voters), projects Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers to small leads each over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed (D). The latter three are already embroiled in a close primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

The lateness of the Michigan primary is another break for Rogers since he is the prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination and can stockpile resources for the general election.

The five competitive races that will have a major effect upon which party controls the next House majority begins in western Michigan with Districts 3 and 4.

In the Grand Rapids anchored 3rd District, which is rated as Lean Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 50.2D – 46.6R), Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), after briefly considering a Senate run, will seek a third term. Republicans don’t yet have a strong candidate capable of converting the seat, but this district is a top GOP recruitment priority.

In the 4th District, veteran Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), who seriously tested the US Senate waters before turning back under GOP party leadership pressure, has not yet officially announced that he will seek re-election in what again promises to be a competitive general election. In 2024, Huizenga won with a 55-43 percent majority against a weak opponent whom he outspent by a 3:1 ratio.

The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) partisan lean for CD-4 is 51.8R – 45.1D meaning the Republicans have a clear advantage but a strong Democrat would have a credible chance of securing an upset victory. Should Huizenga decide to retire, this race will likely go into toss-up mode. Democrats have four announced candidates including state Sen. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo), who is already polling close to Huizenga.

The area encompassing the cities of Flint, Lansing, and the northern Detroit suburbs will feature potentially the three hottest Michigan US House campaigns.

In the Lansing anchored 7th District, freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte) was the only 2024 candidate to convert an open seat. He will now defend his position within a hot political climate in what promises to be one of the top national congressional campaigns. Six Democrats have announced their candidacies and the leading contender for the party nomination appears to be former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink. The DRA partisan lean for this toss-up seat is 49.3D – 47.9R.

The Flint-anchored 8th CD saw Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet (D), then a sitting state Senator, defeat three-time GOP congressional candidate Paul Junge by a 51-45 percent margin. The DRA partisan lean of 51.0D – 46.2R, however, suggests the race could have been a bit closer. Republicans have yet to file a top contender, but this contest will again be close and is, like MI-3, at the top of the GOP candidate recruitment list.

Rep. James departing the 10th District to run for Governor leaves what could become one of the closest open seat races in the country. The DRA partisan lean here is 49.5D – 47.9R which has led to two close James’ victories.

Both parties already have five announced candidates. Republicans feature Mike Bouchard Jr., whose father is the Oakland County Sheriff and a former statewide candidate, while Democrats see former US Commerce Department Eric Chung and Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel as their current top candidates.

Potential Republican contenders include former Congressman Mike Bishop and ex-gubernatorial candidate Kevin Rinke. Much will happen in MI-10 before the filing deadline as the candidates and potential candidates continue to test the political waters.

Regardless of how the national redistricting wars end, the US House majority will likely come down to just a few seats. It is clear that Michigan will play a pivotal role in determining which party will ultimately claim control of the House chamber at the beginning of 2027.

Election Reflections;
Reps. Garcia, Golden to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025

Election Reflections

Clearly, Democrats enjoyed a blowout election on Tuesday night in most places, but particularly so in their historically strong regions.

The turnout model, which is always the deciding factor in elections, obviously favored the Democrats as we saw increased participation from the party’s voters in almost all elections. Early indications suggest that the Hispanic vote swung back decidedly toward the Democrats, thus becoming a major factor in Tuesday’s outcome.

The turnout disparity was erratic. In Virginia, voter participation rose only 2.3 percent from 2021. In New Jersey, the increase when compared to four years ago was substantially better, 22.0 percent. The New York mayoral turnout, however, almost doubled. Compared to 2021, the turnout was up 79 percent from when Mayor Eric Adams won his election. Yet, despite the wide variance in turnout growth, the Democratic results across the board were largely the same.

The low Virginia increase is surprising since early voting ran 20 percentage points higher than the 2021 benchmark. This means that Election Day voting, largely from the Republican sector, was well off its previous pace set in 2021.

Post-election surveys indicate that the economy is the top concern of people who voted in the odd-numbered year election. Rejecting some of the Trump Administration moves is another key underlying reason for Tuesday’s Democratic sweep.

The Democrats also gained huge redistricting victories with the passage of Proposition 50 in California and the Democratic sweep in Virginia. Carried through to the most extreme predictions, Democrats could be set to add five seats in California and four in Virginia. Such would neutralize most of gains that Republicans will see in places like Texas, Missouri, Ohio, and North Carolina.

It remains to be seen how the Republicans rebound from Tuesday’s definitive defeat. If, however, the economy doesn’t substantially improve by the time the voting cycle begins next year, seeing a similar outcome to what was witnessed this week is certainly a possibility.

US House Turnover

In Illinois, in a surprise move at candidate filing time for the 2026 March midterm primary, four-term Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago), who failed in an attempt to win the 2023 Chicago Mayor’s race, did not file for re-election. This opened the door for his congressional chief of staff, Patty Garcia (D), to step up.

Some states, California for example, have a system that prevents a move like the one now being implemented in Illinois. Here, Rep. Garcia was mum about his retirement plans in order to pave the way for his anointed candidate to take the seat virtually without opposition. In the California example, should an incumbent not submit re-election documents the candidate filing period is extended five days to ensure that more individuals have the opportunity to enter the open contest.

In Maine, four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) also announced that he will not seek re-election. We will analyze this situation in a future update.

With Reps. Garcia and Golden not seeking re-election, it means that there will be 34 open seats headed into the 2026 election (20R; 11D; 3 new) with another two headed for special elections. Additionally, because Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) won the New Jersey Governor’s race, a special election for her congressional seat will be scheduled in mid-January after she officially takes her new office.

The succession process to replace the late Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) began on Tuesday and the results yielded Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) advancing to a runoff election to be scheduled when the Nov. 4 results become official.

The TN-7 special election between Republican Matt Van Epps and Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) is scheduled for Dec. 2. The western Tennessee seat became open when GOP Rep. Mark Green resigned to accept a position in the private sector.

Van Epps is favored in the TN-7 district because the voter history leans heavily Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 55.1R – 42.1D; Trump ’24: 60.4 – 38.1 percent; Rep. Green ’24: 59.5 – 38.1 percent).

Considering Tuesday’s results, expect Democrats to make a renewed push to capture the Tennessee seat. It is likely that Republicans will increase their voter turnout activity and possibly make a strategic change. In any event, the national political focus will now shift to the Volunteer State for its Dec. 2 special election.

Democrats are assured of winning the TX-18 special because the runoff features two party members. Under the new Texas redistricting map, whoever wins the runoff must immediately turn around and compete in a new 18th District against veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in a regular March 3 Democratic primary. Therefore, whether Menefee or Edwards wins the special election, his or her tenure in the House could be short lived.

A Democratic Sweep: Sherrill, Spanberger, Mamdani and More All Win

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025

Elections

New York City voters elected Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani as their next Mayor.

Last night’s election results yielded victories for Democrats across the board and it appears that high prices and the state of the economy are among the top reasons.

Of course, Democrats will argue that their attacks against President Trump compared to the election results is a rejection of the current administration, and the votes provide evidence for such a claim, but New Jersey and New York City are heavily Democratic enclaves, and the Washington, DC metropolitan area, including the Northern Virginia and Maryland suburbs have repeatedly proven itself as the most anti-Trump region in the country.

Therefore, within the partisan context, the election results should not be considered overly surprising.

New York City

As expected, state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (Democratic/Working Families) was elected Mayor of New York City last night, capturing what looks to be a bare majority of the vote.

In the end, it appears the self-described Democratic Socialist outpaced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (Fight and Deliver Party), and Curtis Sliwa (Republican/Protect Animals Party) by a 50.4 – 41.6 – 7.1 percent margin. Polling did not fully capture Mamdani’s strength, nor Republican Sliwa’s weakness. In particular, the latter man polled approximately ten points better on average than his ultimate performance.

Certainly, barely going over the 50 percent mark gives Mamdani the mandate he needs to implement his more radical agenda, and certainly will have support to do so from the New York City Council. Much more to come in the ensuing weeks about this result and the new Mamdani Administration.

New Jersey

This gubernatorial election outcome was one of the most surprising decisions of last night as Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) scored what will likely be a 56-43 percent win over 2021 Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli despite polling that suggested the race was falling into the toss-up range.

The Sherrill victory represents the first time a political party has won three consecutive New Jersey gubernatorial elections since World War II.

With the Congresswoman’s victory, we will see another special congressional election, this time in her 11th District seat. Sherrill will resign from the House shortly before she assumes the Governorship in mid-January. One of her first duties will be to schedule the special election for voters to elect her successor. Already vying for positioning are former NJ-7 Congressman Tom Malinowski (D) and several local Democratic officials.

Virginia

Polling in this race was spot on, as survey research firms were not only consistently projecting an Abigail Spanberger victory, but they also saw the surge for the Democratic candidates in the final week of early voting and on Election Day. The combination carried not only Spanberger, but also Lt. Gov.-Elect Ghazala Hashmi and Attorney General-Elect Jay Jones to victory as part of the Democratic sweep.

The most surprising result was Jones defeating AG Miyares after the controversy broke several weeks ago about him fantasizing about killing his Republican opponents. Much analysis about the Attorney General’s result will be forthcoming over the next period of days when the actual results can be digested.

California Proposition 50

As expected, last night Golden State special election voters easily adopted the referendum to replace the California Citizens Redistricting Commission congressional map with a plan that Gov. Gavin Newsom had drawn. The redraw gerrymander could net the Democrats five seats and reduce the Republicans to four of the state’s 52 congressional districts.

Whether the map actually produces such results remain to be seen in the 2026 election. We can expect to see legal challenges to the entire process to soon be forthcoming but with a strong public vote, overturning the new map becomes very difficult.

TX-18

The jungle primary for the third of four special congressional elections to fill vacancies was held in Houston last night. The results will go to a runoff election that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule as soon as the Secretary of State verifies that no candidate received a majority of the vote.

The verification will come quickly, since Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) placed first and second with 32 and 25 percent of the vote, respectively. Therefore, no one came close to obtaining majority support.

The problem for whoever wins the runoff election, which will likely be in January, is that he or she will have to turn around and participate in a March 3, 2026, primary in another version of the 18th District and against incumbent Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) under the new Texas congressional map.

The Democrats are assured of keeping the 18th District seat to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston), but the prize may be short-lived because the regular primary in the new district will be just weeks after securing victory.