Category Archives: Governor

The Third Hot State

Michigan Congressional Map / To see interactive map, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App, Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 12, 2025

US House

While the most recent attention for flipping the US House has been devoted to the redistricting changes in California and Texas, a third state that did not redistrict will have an equivalent effect upon the 2026 national US House picture.

The Wolverine State of Michigan will be one of the hottest political states in the country for the 2026 election from the top of the ballot to the bottom. Because of the domain’s later April 21 candidate filing deadline and Aug. 4 partisan primary schedule, the early national political focus has been elsewhere, but such does not diminish Michigan’s importance as a ‘26 electoral player.

At the top of the ticket, and for the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and Senate race in the same election cycle. In the House races, we could see major competition in five of the state’s 13 congressional districts. One of those CDs is open, and two others feature freshman members seeking their first re-election.

The Governor’s race will be unique in that it not only projects to be close, but three-term former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent instead of a Democrat means we will see a competitive statewide campaign not just between two candidates, but three.

At this point, it appears that Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) will be the respective Democratic and Republican gubernatorial nominees. Incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to compete for a third term, but we are likely to see more of her as a probable 2028 presidential candidate.

Sen. Gary Peters (D) retiring after two terms has made the Michigan open Senate campaign one of the most competitive in the country and may be the Republicans’ best chance to convert a Democratic seat.

The latest published poll, from Mitchell Research & Communications (Nov. 18-21; 616 likely Michigan general election voters), projects Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers to small leads each over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed (D). The latter three are already embroiled in a close primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

The lateness of the Michigan primary is another break for Rogers since he is the prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination and can stockpile resources for the general election.

The five competitive races that will have a major effect upon which party controls the next House majority begins in western Michigan with Districts 3 and 4.

In the Grand Rapids anchored 3rd District, which is rated as Lean Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 50.2D – 46.6R), Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), after briefly considering a Senate run, will seek a third term. Republicans don’t yet have a strong candidate capable of converting the seat, but this district is a top GOP recruitment priority.

In the 4th District, veteran Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), who seriously tested the US Senate waters before turning back under GOP party leadership pressure, has not yet officially announced that he will seek re-election in what again promises to be a competitive general election. In 2024, Huizenga won with a 55-43 percent majority against a weak opponent whom he outspent by a 3:1 ratio.

The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) partisan lean for CD-4 is 51.8R – 45.1D meaning the Republicans have a clear advantage but a strong Democrat would have a credible chance of securing an upset victory. Should Huizenga decide to retire, this race will likely go into toss-up mode. Democrats have four announced candidates including state Sen. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo), who is already polling close to Huizenga.

The area encompassing the cities of Flint, Lansing, and the northern Detroit suburbs will feature potentially the three hottest Michigan US House campaigns.

In the Lansing anchored 7th District, freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte) was the only 2024 candidate to convert an open seat. He will now defend his position within a hot political climate in what promises to be one of the top national congressional campaigns. Six Democrats have announced their candidacies and the leading contender for the party nomination appears to be former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink. The DRA partisan lean for this toss-up seat is 49.3D – 47.9R.

The Flint-anchored 8th CD saw Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet (D), then a sitting state Senator, defeat three-time GOP congressional candidate Paul Junge by a 51-45 percent margin. The DRA partisan lean of 51.0D – 46.2R, however, suggests the race could have been a bit closer. Republicans have yet to file a top contender, but this contest will again be close and is, like MI-3, at the top of the GOP candidate recruitment list.

Rep. James departing the 10th District to run for Governor leaves what could become one of the closest open seat races in the country. The DRA partisan lean here is 49.5D – 47.9R which has led to two close James’ victories.

Both parties already have five announced candidates. Republicans feature Mike Bouchard Jr., whose father is the Oakland County Sheriff and a former statewide candidate, while Democrats see former US Commerce Department Eric Chung and Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel as their current top candidates.

Potential Republican contenders include former Congressman Mike Bishop and ex-gubernatorial candidate Kevin Rinke. Much will happen in MI-10 before the filing deadline as the candidates and potential candidates continue to test the political waters.

Regardless of how the national redistricting wars end, the US House majority will likely come down to just a few seats. It is clear that Michigan will play a pivotal role in determining which party will ultimately claim control of the House chamber at the beginning of 2027.

Election Reflections;
Reps. Garcia, Golden to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025

Election Reflections

Clearly, Democrats enjoyed a blowout election on Tuesday night in most places, but particularly so in their historically strong regions.

The turnout model, which is always the deciding factor in elections, obviously favored the Democrats as we saw increased participation from the party’s voters in almost all elections. Early indications suggest that the Hispanic vote swung back decidedly toward the Democrats, thus becoming a major factor in Tuesday’s outcome.

The turnout disparity was erratic. In Virginia, voter participation rose only 2.3 percent from 2021. In New Jersey, the increase when compared to four years ago was substantially better, 22.0 percent. The New York mayoral turnout, however, almost doubled. Compared to 2021, the turnout was up 79 percent from when Mayor Eric Adams won his election. Yet, despite the wide variance in turnout growth, the Democratic results across the board were largely the same.

The low Virginia increase is surprising since early voting ran 20 percentage points higher than the 2021 benchmark. This means that Election Day voting, largely from the Republican sector, was well off its previous pace set in 2021.

Post-election surveys indicate that the economy is the top concern of people who voted in the odd-numbered year election. Rejecting some of the Trump Administration moves is another key underlying reason for Tuesday’s Democratic sweep.

The Democrats also gained huge redistricting victories with the passage of Proposition 50 in California and the Democratic sweep in Virginia. Carried through to the most extreme predictions, Democrats could be set to add five seats in California and four in Virginia. Such would neutralize most of gains that Republicans will see in places like Texas, Missouri, Ohio, and North Carolina.

It remains to be seen how the Republicans rebound from Tuesday’s definitive defeat. If, however, the economy doesn’t substantially improve by the time the voting cycle begins next year, seeing a similar outcome to what was witnessed this week is certainly a possibility.

US House Turnover

In Illinois, in a surprise move at candidate filing time for the 2026 March midterm primary, four-term Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago), who failed in an attempt to win the 2023 Chicago Mayor’s race, did not file for re-election. This opened the door for his congressional chief of staff, Patty Garcia (D), to step up.

Some states, California for example, have a system that prevents a move like the one now being implemented in Illinois. Here, Rep. Garcia was mum about his retirement plans in order to pave the way for his anointed candidate to take the seat virtually without opposition. In the California example, should an incumbent not submit re-election documents the candidate filing period is extended five days to ensure that more individuals have the opportunity to enter the open contest.

In Maine, four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) also announced that he will not seek re-election. We will analyze this situation in a future update.

With Reps. Garcia and Golden not seeking re-election, it means that there will be 34 open seats headed into the 2026 election (20R; 11D; 3 new) with another two headed for special elections. Additionally, because Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) won the New Jersey Governor’s race, a special election for her congressional seat will be scheduled in mid-January after she officially takes her new office.

The succession process to replace the late Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) began on Tuesday and the results yielded Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) advancing to a runoff election to be scheduled when the Nov. 4 results become official.

The TN-7 special election between Republican Matt Van Epps and Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) is scheduled for Dec. 2. The western Tennessee seat became open when GOP Rep. Mark Green resigned to accept a position in the private sector.

Van Epps is favored in the TN-7 district because the voter history leans heavily Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 55.1R – 42.1D; Trump ’24: 60.4 – 38.1 percent; Rep. Green ’24: 59.5 – 38.1 percent).

Considering Tuesday’s results, expect Democrats to make a renewed push to capture the Tennessee seat. It is likely that Republicans will increase their voter turnout activity and possibly make a strategic change. In any event, the national political focus will now shift to the Volunteer State for its Dec. 2 special election.

Democrats are assured of winning the TX-18 special because the runoff features two party members. Under the new Texas redistricting map, whoever wins the runoff must immediately turn around and compete in a new 18th District against veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in a regular March 3 Democratic primary. Therefore, whether Menefee or Edwards wins the special election, his or her tenure in the House could be short lived.

A Democratic Sweep: Sherrill, Spanberger, Mamdani and More All Win

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025

Elections

New York City voters elected Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani as their next Mayor.

Last night’s election results yielded victories for Democrats across the board and it appears that high prices and the state of the economy are among the top reasons.

Of course, Democrats will argue that their attacks against President Trump compared to the election results is a rejection of the current administration, and the votes provide evidence for such a claim, but New Jersey and New York City are heavily Democratic enclaves, and the Washington, DC metropolitan area, including the Northern Virginia and Maryland suburbs have repeatedly proven itself as the most anti-Trump region in the country.

Therefore, within the partisan context, the election results should not be considered overly surprising.

New York City

As expected, state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (Democratic/Working Families) was elected Mayor of New York City last night, capturing what looks to be a bare majority of the vote.

In the end, it appears the self-described Democratic Socialist outpaced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (Fight and Deliver Party), and Curtis Sliwa (Republican/Protect Animals Party) by a 50.4 – 41.6 – 7.1 percent margin. Polling did not fully capture Mamdani’s strength, nor Republican Sliwa’s weakness. In particular, the latter man polled approximately ten points better on average than his ultimate performance.

Certainly, barely going over the 50 percent mark gives Mamdani the mandate he needs to implement his more radical agenda, and certainly will have support to do so from the New York City Council. Much more to come in the ensuing weeks about this result and the new Mamdani Administration.

New Jersey

This gubernatorial election outcome was one of the most surprising decisions of last night as Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) scored what will likely be a 56-43 percent win over 2021 Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli despite polling that suggested the race was falling into the toss-up range.

The Sherrill victory represents the first time a political party has won three consecutive New Jersey gubernatorial elections since World War II.

With the Congresswoman’s victory, we will see another special congressional election, this time in her 11th District seat. Sherrill will resign from the House shortly before she assumes the Governorship in mid-January. One of her first duties will be to schedule the special election for voters to elect her successor. Already vying for positioning are former NJ-7 Congressman Tom Malinowski (D) and several local Democratic officials.

Virginia

Polling in this race was spot on, as survey research firms were not only consistently projecting an Abigail Spanberger victory, but they also saw the surge for the Democratic candidates in the final week of early voting and on Election Day. The combination carried not only Spanberger, but also Lt. Gov.-Elect Ghazala Hashmi and Attorney General-Elect Jay Jones to victory as part of the Democratic sweep.

The most surprising result was Jones defeating AG Miyares after the controversy broke several weeks ago about him fantasizing about killing his Republican opponents. Much analysis about the Attorney General’s result will be forthcoming over the next period of days when the actual results can be digested.

California Proposition 50

As expected, last night Golden State special election voters easily adopted the referendum to replace the California Citizens Redistricting Commission congressional map with a plan that Gov. Gavin Newsom had drawn. The redraw gerrymander could net the Democrats five seats and reduce the Republicans to four of the state’s 52 congressional districts.

Whether the map actually produces such results remain to be seen in the 2026 election. We can expect to see legal challenges to the entire process to soon be forthcoming but with a strong public vote, overturning the new map becomes very difficult.

TX-18

The jungle primary for the third of four special congressional elections to fill vacancies was held in Houston last night. The results will go to a runoff election that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule as soon as the Secretary of State verifies that no candidate received a majority of the vote.

The verification will come quickly, since Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) placed first and second with 32 and 25 percent of the vote, respectively. Therefore, no one came close to obtaining majority support.

The problem for whoever wins the runoff election, which will likely be in January, is that he or she will have to turn around and participate in a March 3, 2026, primary in another version of the 18th District and against incumbent Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) under the new Texas congressional map.

The Democrats are assured of keeping the 18th District seat to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston), but the prize may be short-lived because the regular primary in the new district will be just weeks after securing victory.

Election Day Preview

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025

Elections

The major odd-numbered elections are upon us with early voting completed and election day occurring today in New Jersey, New York City, and Virginia. Polling projects a good night forthcoming for Democrats, but the available early voting statistics suggest Republicans might be stronger than the polls indicate.

New Jersey

The open Governor’s race is the main focus on the Garden State ballot, and it may well become the most interesting contest to follow tonight.

The polling momentum has closed in Republican Jack Ciattarelli’s favor with the latest five publicly released surveys from the Oct. 25-30 period finding Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) holding an average 3.4 percentage point advantage. This number is down from a much higher range, usually in the upper single digits, for most of the race.

Furthermore, if the SoCal Strategies poll (Oct. 28-29; 800 likely New Jersey voters) is removed from the group because its seven-point spread (52-45 percent) is an outlier when compared with the other four (Atlas Intel, Emerson College, Quantus Insights, and Suffolk University), the Sherrill average point lead drops to 2.5.

Additionally, Ciattarelli has under-polled in his previous races, particularly in the primary earlier this year and by a large amount. Going into the five-way 2025 Republican primary, Ciattarelli’s highest preference number was 54 percent yet he ended with a 68 percent actual vote total. Should this Ciattarelli under-poll pattern continue in this year’s general election, we could see an upset.

New Jersey early voting statistics are not as available as in some other places, but Ciattarelli’s assessment that more Republicans are voting early that ever before appears correct. According to CBS News, approximately 514,500 Democrats have voted early as compared to an approximate 279,000 Republicans, and 177,000 non-affiliated and minor party voters.

These raw number figures translate into 56.5 percent of the early voters being Democrats, 30.6 percent Republicans, and 12.9 percent non-affiliated and others. While the Democrats lead the early vote count, their percentage is down from 2024 when the Dems accounted for 68.0 percent of the early voting participation numbers and 2022 when their percentage was 59.9 according to the Target Early Target Smart organization calculations.

Though the 2025 Republican number is much smaller than the Democratic percentage, it is up from 27.4 percent in 2024, but down from a 32.2 percent participation factor in 2022. The Non-affiliated/ Other category accounted for 4.7 percent of the early voters in 2024 and 7.9 percent in 2022. Therefore, the NA/O segment’s 12.9 percent early turnout is considerably ahead of the previous elections.

New York City

While Assemblyman and New York City mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani’s (D) polling percentages are falling somewhat as Election Day dawns, the three-way candidate structure virtually assures that he will win tomorrow’s election, but likely with only a plurality of the votes.

While the majority of NYC voters are likely to choose a mayoral candidate other than the Democratic nominee, the split between former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (I) and Republican Curtis Sliwa will benefit Mamdani.

Since the race has not changed greatly since Cuomo entered under a minor party label after losing the Democratic primary, today’s outcome is unlikely to be surprising.

Virginia

In the Old Dominion’s gubernatorial race, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger is clearly favored to defeat Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and convert the commonwealth’s Governorship to the Democrats. Incumbent Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) is ineligible to seek re-election under the only one-term limit law in the country.

The final five Virginia gubernatorial polls conducted during the Oct. 25-31 period (from Atlas Intel, Echelon Insights, Insider Advantage/Trafalgar Group, SoCal Strategies, and State Navigate) give Spanberger leads of between four and 12 points, margins she has maintained for most of the election cycle.

Yet, the early vote numbers tend to suggest an improved GOP standing. All five of the state’s congressional districts where the electorate sends a Republican to the US House have substantially improved their early vote participation rates when compared to 2021.

According to the latest available reports from the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), the statewide increase in early voting is just under 10 percent. All five Republican House districts, however, are up between 20 and 41.9 percent in early voting participation through Friday.

From the six Democratic districts, only two report increased turnout compared to 2021, and even this pair’s increase is below the statewide average. The other four Democratic congressional districts, at least through Friday’s count, have failed to equal their previous 2021 early voting numbers.

Since Virginia’s early voting numbers are not measured by political party preference, largely because the Old Dominion does not register voters by party, it is difficult to tell if the congressional district breakdowns accurately reflect the partisan composition of 2025 early voting.

The clue, however, that the Republican represented districts are all substantially up in early voting and most of the Democratic seats are down should suggest that Republicans are likely to outperform their polling standing.

Furthermore, it is important to remember that the Republicans won the 2021 election, so Democrats falling behind their losing benchmark numbers from the previous election is another clue that 2025 Virginia voter enthusiasm is higher on the GOP side.

The most likely outcome of tomorrow’s election, however, is a Spanberger victory, a closer Lieutenant Governor’s race, but one that still suggests a slight victory for Democratic nominee Ghazala Hashmi, and a Republican victory for Attorney General Jason Miyares, largely due to the controversy surrounding Democratic nominee Jay Jones.

New York Poll: Stefanik Over Hochul

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 31, 2025

Governor

Rep. Elise Stefanik / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

Unofficial 2026 New York gubernatorial candidate Elise Stefanik, the North Country (NY-21) Republican Congresswoman, has taken a small lead over Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) according to a Manhattan Institute survey. The poll (Oct. 22-26; 900 likely New York voters; live interview & text) finds Stefanik carrying a 43-42 percent edge over the Governor who is seeking a second full four-year term.

The margin is more significant than a simple one-point lead, however. The polling universe is over-sampled toward New York City. Of the 900 people in the sampling pool, only 300 are outside of New York City. The fact that Stefanik is even close, let alone virtually even with the Governor, when two-thirds of the polling sample comes from a population universe where only 11 percent are registered as Republicans is surprising to say the least.

The result is even more unexpected when the most recently released gubernatorial polls, from GrayHouse Polling (Sept. 20-26; 900 registered New York voters) and Siena College (Sept. 8-10; 802 registered New York voters) projected Gov. Hochul leading by five points (48-43 percent) and a whopping 25 points (52-27 percent), respectively.

It is highly unusual to see a poll such as the Manhattan Institute’s that would split their polling sample in a manner where two-thirds of the respondents are located in one area when such a region comprises only 46 percent of the state population.

To counter for the oversample, the Manhattan pollsters said they have weighted the responses to reflect the proper population dispersion geographically and demographically.

While the sample is unusual, the poll’s main objective was to survey the current NYC Mayor’s race. Relating to the local ballot test question, asked only of the New York City respondents, state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D) leads former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (I) and Republican Curtis Sliwa, 43-28-19 percent.

The mayoral ballot test does, to an extent, help explain Stefanik’s vastly improved standing. While Assemblyman Mamdani leads the race and is likely to win the mayoral position with a plurality, the majority of the polling respondents, and likely the actual voters culminating on the Nov. 4 Election Day, appear to be voting for a different candidate.

With Gov. Hochul now publicly endorsing the self-proclaimed socialist Mamdani, it is not as surprising that the non-Mamdani voters might look beyond the incumbent in the next Governor’s race.

With Stefanik closing a gap of at least five percentage points, and arguably more in a short period (the 25-point lead that Siena College found in early September, however, is likely an outlier at least in the context of the present time), suggests something major has occurred to sway opinions.

It is reasonable to believe that the negative public talk and coverage describing how Mamdani’s policies would affect the New York City citizenry has certainly contributed to the political wind beginning to blow in Congresswoman Stefanik’s favor.

A Mamdani election victory will be transformational, but the negatives could conceivably outweigh the positives if the critics’ analyses prove accurate. Furthermore, the effects of what will be newly implemented policies involving the economy, housing, and policing, will be at least somewhat evident before voters again go to the polls in November 2026 to choose a Governor.

Considering this new gubernatorial election polling data, and assuming the Stefanik organization internal surveys are in sync with the public results, it is probable that we will see an official gubernatorial campaign announcement coming from the North Country Congresswoman after the mayoral election and before the end of the year.

With the Mamdani candidacy igniting new political fires for both liberals and conservatives, the 2026 New York Governor’s race will assume a much different posture, and one sure to have national political implications.

New Jersey Getting Closer

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 30, 2025

Governor

(L-R) New Jersey gubernatorial candidates Jack Ciattarelli (R) and Mikie Sherrill (D)

With Garden State early voting just getting underway in earnest, the three latest publicly released New Jersey Governor polls are all showing a tightening contest between Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli.

The three polls were conducted between the Oct. 23-27 period from a trio of individual survey research entities. The margin between the two candidates ranged from one to four percentage points. While the margin has closed, Rep. Sherrill continues to post a lead in virtually every survey.

The most recent study, from Quantus Insights (Oct. 26-27; 1,380 likely New Jersey voters), sees the Sherrill lead at 49-46 percent. The co/efficient firm (Oct. 23-27; 995 likely New Jersey voters) projects an even closer 48-47 percent. Within the same time realm, A2 Insights (Oct. 24-26; 812 likely New Jersey voters) shows the four-point spread for Sherrill at 51-47 percent.

These latest three studies show a significant closing of the race when compared with the three surveys released days before. Each of those found Sherrill holding a much more substantial lead.

The previous set of three polls were conducted during the Oct. 3-20 period, though the final two were fully sampled between Oct. 16-20. The Rutgers-Eagleton poll (Oct. 3-17; 795 likely New Jersey voters) featured a long sampling period that consumed the predominant portion of the sampling time listed above. The R-E results found Sherrill topping Ciattarelli, 50-45 percent.

The other two polls were from Concord Public Opinion Partners (Oct. 16-18; 605 likely New Jersey voters) and GQR Research, the latter formerly known as Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research but now has two new principal partners (Oct. 15-20; 1,000 likely New Jersey voters). While Concord saw a nine-point Sherrill advantage at 49-40 percent, GQR projected an even wider Sherrill margin at 52-40 percent.

Therefore, among the six polls commissioned throughout the preponderance of October’s days, we see a net six-point swing in Ciattarelli’s favor. This suggests the important closing momentum may be turning in his direction.

Additionally, keep in mind that the polling history involving political campaigns with Ciattarelli on the ballot has woefully underestimated his electoral strength. In his 2021 challenge to Gov. Phil Murphy (D), polling pegged Ciattarelli posting an average of approximately 43 percent support. His actual vote total was 48.0 percent.

The 2025 Republican primary election provided even more stark evidence of under-assessing a candidate’s strength. While the polls leading up to the June primary election found Ciattarelli with high-water final polling marks of 54, 50, and 44 percent within the five-candidate primary election field, Ciattarelli’s actual percentage was 67.8, and far beyond what pollsters cumulatively predicted.

Therefore, if past polling history is any indication of what may happen in Tuesday’s final result, we could see a very close finish or even a Ciattarelli upset.

Despite New Jersey being a reliably Democratic state in federal and national elections, a single party has not won three consecutive gubernatorial elections since a pair of Republican Governors together served 10 consecutive years in office from 1944-1954.

Should Sherrill win next week, giving the Democrats three consecutive terms counting outgoing Gov. Murphy’s two election wins, she will have broken the alternating streak that has remained intact for 71 years.

Gov. Mills Announces … Again

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025

Senate

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) | Facebook photo

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D), after a premature social media Senate announcement message over the weekend was pulled back, yesterday formally declared her intention to challenge veteran Sen. Susan Collins (R). The Governor was Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s top choice to challenge Sen. Collins who overcame a massive attack campaign in 2020 to secure a fifth term.

Sen. Collins was first elected in 1996 and has announced plans to run again for a sixth term next year. Gov. Mills was elected in 2018, re-elected four years later, and is ineligible to seek a third term under the state’s election system.

In 2020, the Democrats and their candidate, then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon, spent over $60 million against Sen. Collins in a state of just over a million people. In fact, Gideon had so much money that her campaign coffers still possessed more than $9 million after the election. Under criticism from Democrats because she had so much money left over, the party nominee explained “there was simply nothing left to buy” as hundreds of thousands of dollars flowed into her campaign coffers from all over the country during the 2020 campaign’s last week.

Though every poll but one showed Gideon winning, Sen. Collins went on to score what had to be considered an upset win despite her long-term incumbency with a 50-42 percent victory margin.

Gov. Mills averaged 53.3 percent of the vote in her two victorious gubernatorial elections, which includes her 55.7 – 42.4 percent re-election victory over former two-term Republican Governor Paul LePage. The ex-state chief executive is now running for the US House in the state’s northern district. Before serving as Governor, Mills was a state legislative-appointed Attorney General, a state legislator, and a former local county district attorney.

While Sen. Collins’ age (she will be 73 at the time of the next election) might be an issue in other states as candidates prepare for the 2026 midterm elections, it will not be a factor in the Maine Senate race. Gov. Mills herself will be 78 years old at the time of the November 2026 election.

Gov. Mills began her campaign with the typical attacks levied against Republicans, saying they are cutting Medicaid so the wealthiest can have tax breaks, and “threatening democracy.” The Governor, however, is saddled with at least two major negatives of her own that will be front and center in the Collins campaign arsenal, added to a national GOP attack theme.

As we remember, Gov. Mills attracted national attention by defying President Trump over the “men in women’s sports” issue. Even in Maine, the Mills position favoring transgenders participating in women’s sports polls negatively. She also promoted an energy transmission issue that her opponents said favored Massachusetts to Maine’s detriment. The associated ballot initiative she supported was subsequently soundly defeated.

Today, Maine’s political campaigns are clearly defined. The state has two congressional districts, which are politically opposite. The southern 1st District that includes the state’s largest metropolitan area of Portland, is heavily Democratic. The northern 2nd District, which begins in the Lewiston-Auburn area and moves all the way to Canada, features the most Republican electorate in the country that sends a Democrat to the House.

Statewide, Democrats win by securing a larger majority in the 1st District than Republicans record in the 2nd. Sen. Collins habitually wins by running up her positive vote total in the 2nd District and reducing her margin of defeat in the 1st. As the political polarization grows nationally and in Maine, the 1st becomes more Democratic and the 2nd more Republican.

With former Gov. LePage running unopposed for the GOP congressional nomination in District 2, thus uniting the party behind his candidacy, Republican turnout in the general election could be spurred.

In LePage’s three gubernatorial elections, including his landslide loss to Mills, he carried the 2nd District, and he currently is the most prolific fundraiser among all Republican congressional challengers. His race against four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) promises to be close and could arguably be the Republicans’ best national US House conversion opportunity.

While the Democrats are successful in recruiting their top Maine Senate prospect, we can expect another brutal campaign to begin in the Pine Tree State. Heading into the election year, the Maine Senate campaign must be rated as a toss-up. Expect the polling to favor Mills, as it consistently favored the Democratic nominee in 2020, but history shows that the Republican turnout typically well exceeds projected polling results.

WEEKLY POLITICAL WRAP-UP:
PERIOD ENDING Oct. 10, 2025

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 13, 2025

Senate

Kentucky Senate challenger Amy McGrath (D)

Kentucky — Marine Corps veteran Amy McGrath, who proved her fundraising prowess in two unsuccessful political races, announced that she will enter the 2026 Kentucky US Senate race. Her previous losses were to Congressman Andy Barr, who may well again be her opponent in next year’s Senate general election, and Sen. Mitch McConnell.

According to The Down Ballot political blog reporters, McGrath raised over $94 million for her two campaigns. She lost a close race to Rep. Barr, and in a landslide to Sen. McConnell.

Louisiana — Sen. Bill Cassidy has drawn another Republican primary opponent. St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden announced last week that she will join the growing group of Cassidy primary opponents. In the race are State Treasurer and former US Congressman John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia), and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta. Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) continues to dangle the possibility of her entering the race. If she decides not to become a candidate, state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), chair of the Louisiana House Ways & Means Committee, is likely to enter.

Late last year, the legislature and Governor changed Louisiana’s election system. Instead of a jungle primary for federal races, the state returns to a partisan primary format. Therefore, the new primaries are scheduled for April 18. If no candidate secures majority support in the initial election, a runoff between the top two finishers will occur on May 30.

House

CA-45 — Since former Rep. Michelle Steel (R) has decided not to seek a rematch in 2026 against freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange), Republicans may have found a new candidate. Former Cerritos City Councilman Chuong Vo announced that he will enter the 2026 race to challenge the new Congressman. Should the California redistricting map receive majority vote in the Nov. 4 special election, the 45th would move several points closer to the Democratic side but would still be a competitive seat. Vo says he will run regardless of the redistricting outcome.

IL-2 — Former nine-term Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) announced that he will attempt a political comeback in his former district. Jackson resigned from the House in 2012 after pleading to misusing $750,000 in congressional and campaign funds. He would spend 18 months in federal prison. In a crowded open Democratic field, Jackson will likely become the favorite to win the Democratic primary and then the seat next year. The 2nd District is open because incumbent Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) is running for US Senate. Jackson’s brother, Jonathan Jackson (D-Chicago), currently represents the 1st Congressional District.

MD-7 — Baltimore City Councilman Mark Conway (D) filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission suggesting that he may challenge veteran Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore). Rep. Mfume was first elected to the House in 1986 but left Congress to head the NAACP in 1996. He returned to the House in the 2020 election.

Prior to his service in Congress, Mfume spent eight years on the Baltimore City Council. It remains to be seen whether Conway is preparing a primary challenge or readying a congressional committee in case Congressman Mfume decides to retire.

MO-1 — Former Missouri Congresswoman Cori Bush (D), who was defeated in the 2024 Democratic primary, announced that she will attempt a political comeback. Bush declared that she will return for a rematch with freshman Rep. Wesley Bell (D-St. Louis), who defeated her 51-46 percent in the previous Democratic primary.

The 1st District is largely unchanged in the new Missouri redistricting map, so we will see a rerun of the 2024 campaign. In ’24, Rep. Bell went onto score a 76 percent win in the general election. During her two terms in the House, Bush was a member of the informal Democratic Socialist “Squad” caucus.

NH-2 — Democratic state Representative Paige Beauchemin (D-Nashua) announced that she will challenge freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) in next year’s September Democratic primary. Beauchemin, who won her state position in 2022, says she will run a campaign based upon a “message of radical empathy and grassroots energy.” Rep. Goodlander will be a heavy favorite for renomination and re-election in 2026.

NY-19 — In a seat that has swung back and forth between Democratic and Republican representation in the US House, freshman Rep. Josh Riley (D-Ithaca), who defeated then-Rep. Marc Molinaro (R), sees a new Republican announcing his candidacy. In what promises to be a competitive race, state Sen. Peter Oberacker (R-Schenevus) stated that he will join the 2026 congressional campaign. We can expect this race to become a national congressional campaign that is expensive and highly competitive.

TN-9 — Tennessee state Rep. Justin Pearson (D-Memphis) this week announced that he will challenge veteran Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) who, as a white male, has held the majority black district since the 2006 election. Prior to his service in Congress, Rep. Cohen served 24 years in the Tennessee state Senate. This is another Democratic primary situation where a young challenger – Rep. Pearson is 30 years old – is challenging an older veteran incumbent. Rep. Cohen is 76 years old. This race can become highly competitive.

Governor

Alaska — Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson (R), who was defeated for re-election to a second term, has entered the 2026 open Governor’s race. He becomes the 10th Republican vying for the party nomination. The group includes Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and ex-appointed Attorney General Treg Taylor. Sen. Lisa Murkowski also has not publicly ruled out joining the campaign. On the Democratic side, former state Sen. Tom Begich is the only announced candidate. Begich, however, says he will withdraw if former Rep. Mary Peltola decides to enter. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Maine — Health care company executive Jonathan Bush, cousin to former President George W. Bush, announced that he is joining the crowded open Governor’s candidate field. Bush is now the seventh Republican to announce his or her candidacy. Democrats have five contenders, along with three Independents. Gov. Janet Mills (D) cannot succeed herself under Maine’s term limit law. She is expected to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) next year.

New Jersey — Despite considerable negative publicity for Democratic nominee and Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) over her stock transactions and Naval Academy cheating scandal controversy, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds her still leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli. The PPP results (Oct. 2-3; 703 registered New Jersey voters; text and live interview) see Sherrill posting a 49-43 percent advantage. Other polls show the Sherrill lead between two and eight points. It is probable the race is close. Ciattarelli has substantially under-polled in his previous statewide campaigns based upon the actual result. This will be an interesting race in the campaign’s final month as the candidates stream toward the Nov. 4 election date.

New York — After several polls had shown Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) posting large polling leads over presumed GOP candidate and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), an extensive Grayhouse firm survey (Sept. 20-26; 1,250 likely New York voters; 750 text-to-web; 500 live interview; 605 likely New York Democratic primary voters) sees a much closer ballot test result. According to Grayhouse, Gov. Hochul’s lead is just 48-43 percent over Rep. Stefanik.

This data also shows a tightening of the Democratic primary, though Gov. Hochul maintains a sizable lead. The ballot test for this cell segment shows the Governor’s advantage at 43-14 percent over Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado.

Rhode Island — After toying with the idea of challenging Democratic Gov. Dan McKee in the party primary, term-limited Attorney General Peter Neronha announced that he will not enter the statewide race.

At this point, the Governor’s principal Democratic challenger is his 2022 opponent, former corporate CEO Helena Foulkes. State House Speaker Joe Shekarchi (D-Warwick) is also reportedly still considering a gubernatorial bid. The Rhode Island primary is not until Sept. 8, so much time remains for this race to gel. Winning the Democratic primary is tantamount to clinching the Governorship.

South Carolina — A new poll suggests the open South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary has a new leader, and it is not any of the more established political names.

The Trafalgar Group just released a new October poll for the South Carolina Republican primary (Sept. 30-Oct. 2; 1,094 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the race’s top finisher is Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette. From these results, Evette edges Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Attorney General Alan Wilson, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg), 20-16-12-9-1 percent, respectively with an undecided percentage of 41. All figures are rounded to the highest number.

Wisconsin — Ending speculation about whether he would enter the open Governor’s race, state Attorney General Josh Kaul (D) announced that he will seek re-election to a third term rather than enter what will be a highly competitive open campaign. The Democratic gubernatorial primary field already features Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, former state cabinet secretary Missy Hughes, and two state legislators. Gov. Tony Evers (D) is not seeking a third term.

Rep. Schweikert Announces for
Governor in Arizona

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 3, 2025

House

Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) / Photo by Gage Skidmore via Flickr

Another US House seat came open Wednesday as eight-term Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) announced that he will enter the competitive Republican primary for Governor.

The House open seat count now grows, at least temporarily, to 33. Two more special elections will be held before the end of the year to fill vacancies in Tennessee and Texas.

Rep. Schweikert’s 1st Congressional District becomes the third Republican open in the volatile toss-up category. After the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission members turned Rep. Schweikert’s safe Republican 6th District into a politically marginal 1st District, he has seen two very close re-election results along with a tight presidential contest within his current constituency.

In 2022, Rep. Schweikert was re-elected with just 50.2 percent of the vote over political newcomer and businessman Jevin Hodge (D). Two years later with Hodge not returning for a re-match, the incumbent scored another tight re-election victory but with an improved 51.9 percent against former state Representative and physician Amish Shah (D). This, after winning renomination with just under 63 percent of the vote.

Considering, however, that Schweikert had just agreed to violating 11 different House ethics rules and campaign finance violations resulting in an agreed to $50,000 fine, his strong campaign skills allowed him to politically survive.

President Trump defeated Kamala Harris here with a similarly close 51.1 – 48.0 percent victory margin. In 2020, Joe Biden nipped Trump within the current District 1 confines with a 50-49 percent margin.

Clearly, the 1st District congressional campaign will move further up the Democratic target list now that the seat is open. Already in the race originally vying for the opportunity of challenging Rep. Schweikert is a return appearance from Dr. Shah and former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, who lost the 2024 Democratic primary.

Republicans will now have to find a new nominee with Schweikert pursuing his new statewide venture. Potential GOP candidates reportedly are state Rep. Matt Gress and Phoenix City Councilman Jim Waring.

Already, however, announcing they will not run for Congress, according to The Down Ballot political blog reporters, are Maricopa County Board of Supervisors’ chairman Thomas Galvin and state Sen. Carine Werner.

While Rep. Schweikert would have faced another difficult re-election campaign for the House, his path toward the Republican gubernatorial nomination is also far from secure. In the race for months have been fellow Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) and 2022 statewide candidate Karrin Taylor Robson.

At least at one point, President Trump had endorsed both Biggs and Robson but then appeared to rescind his endorsement of the latter. The President indicated he didn’t feel that she was using his endorsement to the fullest extent.

A recent Pulse Decision Science survey (Sept. 8-10; 502 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Rep. Biggs opening a large GOP primary lead. According to the Pulse ballot test, the Congressman would lead Robson 55-31 percent. The poll was taken just after Rep. Schweikert initially said he was considering entering the race. Adding him to the gubernatorial ballot test question found Schweikert trailing badly with only 11 percent support.

An August, Noble Predictive Insights survey (Aug. 11-18; 365 registered Arizona Republican voters) gave Robson a 37-27 percent advantage over Rep. Biggs. This poll, however, appears to be an outlier.

Previously, four other surveys were released since the beginning of the year from four different pollsters and all cast Rep. Biggs with a substantial advantage. Within the four studies, Biggs averaged 55 percent preference among Republican primary voting respondents as compared to 20 percent for Robson.

The eventual Republican nominee after the Aug. 4, 2026, primary election will face incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Polling is already forecasting a close race irrespective of who becomes the ultimate GOP challenger.

With a tight Governor’s race, two open US House seats, and either primary or general election competition in five of the state’s nine congressional districts, Arizona will be a key electoral state in the 2026 midterm cycle.

Weekly Political Wrap-Up:
Period Ending Sept. 26, 2025

Kansas US Congressional Districts / Click on map above, or go to govtrack.us to see interactive map.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 29, 2025

Senate

Kansas — The Republicans in the Kansas legislature are determining if they will call for a special legislative session to redraw the state’s congressional map. The Republicans have a veto-proof majority in both chambers, so they would theoretically be able to override Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto regarding map passage. A two-thirds vote of both houses is also required to call a special session. The GOP has the numbers, but their margin is very tight. Therefore, the situation is uncertain.

If the Republicans’ redistricting plan is successful and the lone Kansas Democratic US House member, Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park), is targeted and her 3rd CD made unwinnable for her party, the Congresswoman will forgo re-election and instead challenge Sen. Roger Marshall (R) next year.

Alabama — A former White House aide and ex-military advisor to Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) has entered the state’s open Senate race. Morgan Murphy now joins Attorney General Steve Marshall and Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in vying for the Republican nomination. The eventual winner is a virtual sure bet to replace Sen. Tuberville who is running for Governor instead of for re-election.

Additionally, recently retired Auburn University men’s basketball coach Bruce Pearl ended speculation that he would run for the Senate with an announcement of non-candidacy.

Massachusetts — Last week, Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton) said he would not challenge Sen. Ed Markey (D) for renomination, but the door has apparently opened for two other House delegation members to potentially launch such a challenge. Both Reps. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston) each said they are now considering forging a Democratic primary against the Senator. Much time remains because Massachusetts has one of the latest primaries in the nation. In 2026, the Massachusetts primary vote is scheduled for Sept. 15.

New Hampshire — A new co/efficient survey (Sept. 10-12; 904 likely New Hampshire general election voters; 346 Republican primary likely voters; live interview & text) confirms that former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) entering the open New Hampshire Senate race would make the general election very competitive. According to the co/efficient ballot test, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) would lead Sununu, 46-43 percent, a virtual tie. In a Republican primary ballot test, Sununu tops former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, 40-23 percent.

Sununu was elected to the Senate in 2002 after serving three terms in the House. He defeated then-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) to win the Senate seat. Six years later, Shaheen returned for a re-match and unseated Sen. Sununu in the first Obama presidential election year. She won two further terms and is retiring once this Congress ends. Sununu has not been on the ballot since losing his 2008 re-election campaign.

Virginia — Sen. Mark Warner (D) has drawn a Republican opponent. While talk about Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) challenging the Senator has dissipated, state Sen. Bryce Reeves (R-Fredericksburg) has now become an official candidate. The state legislator has twice run for a different office — Lieutenant Governor and the US House, but failed both times to secure the party nomination. Sen. Warner will be favored to win a fourth term next year.

House

TX-29 — Former Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson (D) said publicly that he is considering challenging Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) in the new version of the 29th District. Only 37 percent of the current 29th is in the new 29th, so Rep. Garcia’s incumbency factor would be lessened in such a Democratic primary race. The Houston-anchored seat is still solidly Democratic, so the serious action will occur in the March 3 primary.

TX-32 — Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson, who in 2023 left the Democratic Party and became a Republican, confirmed he is considering entering the newly created 32nd Congressional District that covers part of Dallas before stretching into east Texas. Current incumbent Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is most likely to seek re-election in the Democratic 33rd CD as opposed to what will become a Republican 32nd District. Before winning election as Mayor, Johnson served four terms in the state House of Representatives as a Democrat. He is ineligible to seek a third term as Mayor in 2027.

Governor

California — A surprising California Emerson College Poll (Sept. 15-16; 1,000 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques) was released during the week providing bad news to Sen. Alex Padilla (D). The Senator is reportedly considering entering the open Governor’s race.

The ballot test again finds former Rep. Katie Porter leading the jungle primary field but with only a 16 percent preference figure. Following are two Republicans totaling 18 percent of the jungle primary vote, former Fox News host Steve Hilton (10 percent) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (8 percent). Sen. Alex Padilla (D) is next posting only 7 percent support, which is a surprisingly low number for a sitting US Senator.

Another gubernatorial entry has emerged. Former state Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon (D) announced that he will join the crowded Governor’s primary calling for “a new generation of leadership.” Calderon is 40 years of age. The former four-term Assemblyman’s father, Charles Calderon (D), served in the state Senate and Assembly. He was elected Majority Leader in both chambers during his legislative career.

Minnesota — While Gov. Tim Walz (D) is now officially running for a third term, a new poll suggests he is in a battle for re-election. SurveyUSA, polling for Twin Cities television station KSTP (Sept. 15-18; 568 likely Minnesota voters) finds former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen (R) trailing Gov. Walz by only a 46-41 percent margin.

The poll results also found Gov. Walz with a 47:47 percent job approval rating that features only 20 percent strongly approving and 34 percent strongly disapproving. The Governor and former Vice-Presidential nominee also fares poorly in southern Minnesota, a region he represented in the US House, and with Independents. Thus, the early polling suggests the 2026 Minnesota Governor’s race will be in the competitive realm.

Oklahoma — State Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters (R), who has had a controversial tenure but is a champion of the Republican Party’s right flank, announced his resignation to accept a job running a non-profit education organization. He was considered a potential gubernatorial candidate. The move is a boon to Attorney General Gentner Drummond who appears to be the leading GOP candidate for the party nomination. Becoming the Republican standard bearer is tantamount to winning the general election. Incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Virginia — A series of three September polls all find former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by spreads beyond the polling margin of error. Pulse Decision Science (Sept. 3-5; 512 likely Virginia voters) posts Spanberger to a 48-43 percent edge. Christopher Newport University (Sept. 8-14; 808 registered Virginia voters) sees the Spanberger lead larger at 52-40 percent. Finally, in the most recently released survey, co/efficient (Set. 22-23; 1,024 likely Virginia voters) finds a result closer to the Pulse Decision study, 49-43 percent, also in Spanberger’s favor.

From the three data organizations that track and average poll results, Real Clear Politics, Decision Desk HQ, and Race to the White House, all see Spanberger leading in an average range falling between 7.3 percentage points (Real Clear Politics) and 9.4 (Race to the White House). The Virginia election is Nov. 4, so political prime time is now fully underway.

Wisconsin — Badger State Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) announced late this week that he will risk the congressional seat he won in a 2020 special election to enter his state’s open Governor’s race next year.

The move had been expected, and Rep. Tiffany’s chances of winning the Republican primary so far against Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann and manufacturing company CEO Bill Berrien are good. Tiffany’s strong conservative record gives him the inside track in attracting backing from right of center political organizations which have proven important in Republican primaries.

Democrats who have announced their own gubernatorial campaigns are Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, state Sen. Kelda Roys (D-Madison), state Rep. Francesca Hong (D-Madison), and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. Gov. Tony Evers (D) is not standing for a third term. We can expect to see a toss-up open seat gubernatorial election here next year.

City & State

Boston — After suffering a better than 3:1 negative showing in the September jungle primary, businessman Josh Kraft (D), son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, has withdrawn from the Nov. 4 Mayoral general election. This means that Mayor Michelle Wu (D) has won a second term in that she is now unopposed in the regular election.