Tag Archives: Rep. Brian Higgins

RFK Jr. Qualifies in California; CA-16 Tie is Broken; Dem Disqualified in NY-26; New Leader in OR-5 Race

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 3, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Qualifies in CA — Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has qualified for the 2024 general election ballot in California as the nominee of the American Independent Party. In addition to the Golden State, he has an official ballot position in Michigan and Utah. He has filed the requisite number of signatures in Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, and awaits certification in each of those states.

While Kennedy may affect the outcome in some of the aforementioned swing states, solidly blue California will not be in play. President Joe Biden will easily carry the nation’s largest state regardless of RFK Jr.’s ballot presence.

House

CA-16: The Tie is Broken — As expected, recounting all ballots in California’s 16th District jungle primary election did break the tied vote for the second qualifying general election ballot position. Both state Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) and San Mateo County Supervisor Joe Simitian each finished the initial count with 30,249 votes. Allies of the first-place finisher, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D), then paid for a recount. Neither Low nor Simitian moved for a recount because California election procedure allows all tied candidates to advance into the general election. Otherwise, it is only the two top vote-getters who compete in November.

With the recount now final, Assemblyman Low finished with an adjusted five-vote margin, meaning he will solely advance to the general election to face former Mayor Liccardo. It will now be interesting to see if Simitian now requests and finances a second recount. With such small vote margins, another recount could produce a different result.

NY-26: Democrat Disqualified — A day after state Sen. Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) easily won the special election to succeed resigned Rep. Brian Higgins (D) in New York’s 26th Congressional District, his regular election Democratic challenger, former two-time congressional candidate Nate McMurray, has been disqualified. Election officials ruled he did not file enough valid petition signatures to be awarded a ballot position. Therefore, it appears Rep-Elect Kennedy will now be unopposed for re-nomination. Winning the Democratic primary in this Buffalo-anchored district is tantamount to claiming the November election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-26 as D+18.

McMurray lashed out at the party leaders after his rejection was made public claiming in a long letter on X that, “it feels like even if we collected 100,000 signatures it would not have made a difference. They would have found something to throw me off. I’m a threat to their closed shop business. And don’t kid yourself; it’s a business.”

OR-5: New Dem Leader — In 2022, one of the bigger upsets on election night was Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer defeating Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner to convert Oregon’s 5th District to the GOP. Earlier that year, in May, McLeod-Skinner upset seven-term Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary.

A new brilliant corners Research & Strategies poll (April 26-28; 402 likely OR-5 general election voters; live interview) finds McLeod-Skinner now trailing state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) by a 37-34 percent count. Due to McLeod-Skinner losing the seat in the previous election and generally rated as a weaker candidate, most of the Democratic leadership and establishment are backing Rep. Bynum. Therefore, this polling result is not particularly surprising.

Whoever wins the Democratic primary will find themselves already in a toss-up general election battle against Rep. Chavez-DeRemer. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates OR-5 as D+3. President Biden carried the district in 2020 with a 53-44 percent margin. The Daily Kos Election site statisticians rank the seat as the ninth most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

“Squad” Member Bush Trailing;
Suozzi Wins Convincingly in NY-3; Malinowski Won’t Run; Special Election Scheduled in New York

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 14, 2024

House

Freshman Missouri Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) has a competitive race on her hands.

MO-1: New Dem Primary Poll Finds Rep. Bush Trailing — The Remington Research Group has released a surprising new poll (Feb. 7-9; 401 likely MO-1 Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) that projects two-term incumbent Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis), a member of the so-called House “Squad” or the most progressive left group in Congress, significantly trailing her Democratic primary opponent.

According to the Remington ballot test, former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell, who was originally a candidate in the Senate race, enjoys a strong 50-28 percent lead over Bush. The congresswoman is also under an investigation from the House Ethics Committee over the potential misuse of campaign funds for personal gain.

Missouri’s 1st District is heavily Democratic, carrying a D+52 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization, so the battle for re-election lies squarely in the nomination election. Bush, herself, came into office when defeating veteran Democratic Congressman Lacy Clay in the 2020 Democratic primary.

NY-3: Suozzi Wins — Former US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) won a convincing 54-46 percent victory over Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip (R) last night even though five surveys from five different pollsters showed the race within a 1-4 point margin.

Rep-Elect Suozzi converts the seat back to the Democratic column, making the partisan division in the House an even closer 219R – 213D with three vacancies. It is probable that when all of the vacancies are filled after completing special elections in late April (NY-26), May (CA-20), and June (OH-6), the House will sit at 221R – 214D heading into the regular 2024 elections.

Once again, Democrats out-performing Republicans in early voting proved a reliable precursor as to which party had the electoral momentum, thus explaining how Suozzi exceeded the polling projections. Additionally, while poor weather was thought to keep the election day turnout low, it did not. A special election turnout of more than 174,000 voters is a strong display for any district. In comparison, just over 271,000 voted in the 2022 regular congressional election.

NJ-7: Ex-Rep. Malinowski Won’t Run — It appears that Democrats are staking their chances of upsetting Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) upon the former New Jersey executive director of the Working Families Party. The three Democratic candidates who have abandoned their own campaigns turned and endorsed Sue Altman. Now, former US Rep. Tom Malinowski, who the Democratic leadership had hoped to recruit into the race, has also declined to run and he, too, just endorsed Altman.

New Jersey’s 7th District is a politically marginal swing seat that the Daily Kos Elections site ranks as the 16th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district R+3, so these most recent developments, all of which help Rep. Kean, means the freshman congressman must be rated as a clear favorite for re-election.

NY-26: Governor Schedules Special Election — With New York Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) now officially resigned and his 26th District seat vacant, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) announced she is scheduling the replacement special election for April 30 to fill the remaining time left on the current term.

The district’s Democratic county chairmen have already chosen state Sen. Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) as their special election candidate. The Republican chairmen have yet to decide who will be their own standard bearer but regardless of the person selected, Kennedy will be favored to win the special. The seat is soundly Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates is as D+18. The Daily Kos Election site ranks NY-26 as the 78th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

Though Kennedy is the clear favorite to win the special election, his tougher challenge may be the June 25 Democratic primary for the regular term. Former Town Supervisor Nate McMurray (D), who twice ran close races in the former 27th District that was collapsed in the latest reapportionment, says he will challenge Kennedy for the Democratic nomination to advance into the November 2024 general election.

Fong’s Fight; Rep. Jamaal Bowman in Primary Battle; Another US House Member to Resign; More Primary Trouble for Rep. Nancy Mace

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 1, 2024

House

California Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) / Photo by Kevin Sanders for California Globe

CA-20: Candidates Qualify for Special Election — The California Secretary of State has attested that nine candidates have qualified for the March 19 special election to replace resigned former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield). Controversy, however, still surrounds the favorite to win the electoral contest, Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield).

Since Fong had already filed for re-election before Rep. McCarthy resigned from the Congress, the Secretary of State ruled that he could not enter the congressional race because such action would violate a California election law that prohibits individuals from simultaneously running for multiple offices. Fong sued over the administrative ruling and won in Superior Court. Therefore, he has been slated as a congressional candidate while not being removed from the state assembly ballot. The state is appealing the court ruling, so even if Fong wins the special election as expected, he could be hampered by a future court decision.

Also qualifying are Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux (R), and seven other Republicans, Democrats, and No Party Preference candidates. If no one receives majority support on March 19, the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation will advance to a special general election on May 21. The regular election cycle primary is scheduled for March 5, featuring most of these candidates. The special election winner will serve the balance of Rep. McCarthy’s final term.

NY-16: Serious Primary Challenge Unfolding — New York US Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers), while receiving good news that the House Ethics Committee is not going to pursue further action against the congressman for pulling a fire alarm in a House office building, is now facing a backlash over social media posts he made after the 9/11 attack. The posts referred to theories that the US government orchestrated the terrorist massacre, and a ring of globalist bankers were actively involved in the conspiracy.

“Well over a decade ago, as I was debating diving into a doctoral degree, I explored a wide range of books, films, and articles across a wide swath of the political spectrum and processed my thoughts in a personal blog that few people ever read. I don’t believe anything that these cranks have said, and my life’s work has proven that.”

While Bowman may survive these controversies in the short term, he faces a very difficult Democratic primary election in June. His principal opponent, Westchester County Executive George Latimer is reporting a dollars raised figure of $1.4 million since his declaration of candidacy in early December. Latimer is a veteran campaigner, having been elected four times to the state Assembly, once to the state Senate, and twice to his current position. Therefore, Rep. Bowman must be considered as a highly vulnerable incumbent as he heads into a serious renomination fight.

NY-26: Rep. Higgins to Resign Friday — New York US Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo), who announced back in November that he would resign the House seat he has held for almost 20 years to take a position in the non-profit sector back in Buffalo, issued a statement saying that he will leave Congress on Friday. Once the seat is officially vacant, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) will have 10 days to call a special election for a period no less than 70 and no greater than 80 days from the scheduling announcement.

The local Democratic county chairmen have already chosen state Sen. Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) as the party’s special election nominee. Republicans are not likely to be competitive in the Buffalo anchored district which carries a partisan rating of D+18 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. At this point, the local Republican county chairs have not announced a special election nominee.

SC-1: More Trouble for Rep. Mace — Earlier in the week, we reported that South Carolina US Rep. Nancy Mace’s (R-Charleston) former chief of staff, Dan Hanlon, had filed a campaign committee to challenge her in this year’s Republican primary. Now, a former Nikki Haley gubernatorial cabinet official, Catherine Templeton, announced that she, too, will oppose the congresswoman.

Templeton, the former director of the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control ran for governor in 2018 but finished third in the Republican primary, losing to Gov. Henry McMaster. As lieutenant governor in 2017, McMaster ascended to the governorship when Haley was appointed UN Ambassador.

With the US Supreme Court still deciding whether the lawsuit challenging the 1st District as a racial gerrymander is valid, there is still a possibility that this seat could be redrawn before the candidates appear on the ballot. The South Carolina primary is June 11, with a runoff scheduled for June 29 if no candidate receives majority support. Unless the district is ordered changed, the eventual Republican nominee becomes a prohibitive favorite in the general election.

New York Redistricting Action; NY-26 Leading Contender Out; Jackson Lee Faces Battle in TX-18; Two Former US Reps Run for California State Office

New York State Congressional Map / Click map or here to go to DavesRedistricting.org to see interactive version.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023

House

New York Redistricting: High Court Orders New Map — The high court ruling in Albany Tuesday could change the balance of power in the US House of Representatives. The New York Court of Appeals, the state’s highest court, on a 4-3 vote ordered that the congressional districts be redrawn for the 2024 election, a move the Democratic plaintiffs sought. The majority agreed with the argument that the court-drawn map for the 2022 elections should stand only for that one period since the voters changed the state Constitution in order to empower the Independent Redistricting Commission with map drawing responsibilities.

With the map being sent back to the commission members, the redistricting process begins again. The high court established a Feb. 28, 2024, deadline for map completion and legislative agreement. Under the constitutional amendment procedure, the legislature must approve the commission prepared map. The New York state primary is scheduled for June 25, and the candidate filing deadline will be set for a date in late March.

NY-26: Leading Contender Won’t Run — Ten-term New York Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) announced last month that he will resign in February to accept a position to lead a Buffalo non-profit organization. Replacing Rep. Higgins largely falls to one man, Erie County Democratic Party chairman Jeremy Zellner.

Under New York election procedure, the various county party chairmen in a congressional district decide who becomes the party nominee in the event of a vacancy. The chairman from counties with the largest population get more influence because the chair votes are weighted. Since 80 percent of the NY-26 constituency lies in Erie County and only 20 percent in Niagara County, the Erie County chairman, i.e., Zellner, will effectively appoint the next congressman. Since the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-26 as D+18 and President Biden scored a 61-37 percent victory here in 2020, the eventual Democratic special election nominee will become the prohibitive favorite to succeed Rep. Higgins.

It appeared that Chairman Zellner was ready to nominate Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz (D) for the congressional post, but now such won’t happen. Poloncarz surprisingly announced that he will not run for Congress. This leaves, for now, state Sen. Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) as the only announced Democratic candidate. Five-term Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown (D), however, is also indicating interest in the congressional seat.

Mayor Brown is a former New York State Democratic Party chairman and an ex-state senator. He began his political career as a member of the Buffalo Common Council. Brown was actually defeated for renomination in 2021 but returned in the general election to win an unprecedented fifth term as a write-in candidate. Once Rep. Higgins resigns in February, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) will call a special election to fill the balance of the current term. At that point, Chairman Zellner will make his decision.

TX-18: Primary Forced Against Rep. Jackson Lee — Updating the story of Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) quickly turning around to file for re-election after losing the Houston mayor’s race on Saturday, the congresswoman will now face an active primary campaign for renomination. Former Houston City councilmember and ex-US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards says she will continue with her campaign and challenge the incumbent.

Edwards originally filed in case the 18th District seat would open because of a Jackson Lee victory in the mayor’s race. Instead, we will see a legitimate primary challenge in the March 5 Super Tuesday election. Three other Democrats also filed in anticipation of an open seat. Therefore, if none of the candidates reach the 50 percent plateau, a runoff would occur between the top two finishers on May 28.

Rep. Jackson Lee will be favored for re-election, but the Edwards challenge merits attention. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-18 as D+43, so the Republican primary becomes irrelevant.

States

California: Two Ex-Congressmen Running for Legislature — With the California candidate filing deadline closing last Friday, we see the unusual situation of two retired eight-term US congressmen now running for seats in the California legislature. Former Rep. Jerry McNerney (D), who retired from Congress at the beginning of this year, filed for the open Stockton-anchored state Senate seat, and George Radanovich (R), who left the House at the beginning of 2011, is running in an open Fresno area Assembly district.

For Radanovich, this will be his second try for the legislature. In the 2022 election, he ran for an open state Senate seat but failed to advance into the general election from the all-party jungle primary.

Michigan Senate Candidate Switches Races; New Mexico Redistricting Appeal; Replacement Nominee for NY-26; How Governors Rank

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2023

Senate

Michigan State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh (D)

Michigan: Democratic Senate Candidate Switches Races — Michigan State Board of Education president Pamela Pugh, who was facing an uphill Democratic US Senate primary against US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), exited the statewide campaign and on Monday declared for the now open 8th Congressional District race. Last week, six-term US Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township) announced that he will not seek re-election next year. Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley (D), a former state representative, is also expected to join the party primary.

The 8th District is politically marginal. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+1, but Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 51.0D – 46.1R. President Joe Biden carried the district with a slight 50.3 – 48.2 percent margin. Therefore, both parties can expect to see competitive nomination battles and a toss-up general election.

House

New Mexico: State Supreme Court Rejects GOP Redistricting Appeal — The New Mexico state Supreme Court unsurprisingly unanimously upheld a lower court ruling that concluded the state’s congressional map did not constitute and “egregious gerrymander.” Therefore, the current map will stand for the remainder of the decade.

The courts sited the closeness of the 2022 District 2 election that saw Democratic local official Gabe Vasquez unseat freshman Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell by less than a percentage point (1,350 votes) from just under 193,000 cast ballots. Herrell is returning for a rematch next year, which is again expected to be close.

NY-26: One Man May Pick the Next Congressman — With 10-term Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) announcing that he will resign during the first week of February to run a civic organization back in Buffalo, speculation is churning as to who will replace the outgoing congressman. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) will calendar a special election after the resignation is official, and then the party county chairmen will choose their nominees.

New York’s 26th District is comprised of parts of two counties, Erie and Niagara, and since the district is heavily Democratic (FiveThirtyEight rates the seat as D+18; the Daily Kos Elections site ranks NY-26 as the 78th-most vulnerable seat within the Democratic Conference), one man will effectively have the power of anointing the next congressman.

Since 80 percent of the district lies in Erie County, that county’s Democratic party chairman will have a greater weighted say than the Niagara County chair. Odds appear strong that chairman Jeremy Zellner will choose Eric County Executive Mark Poloncarz as the party nominee. Poloncarz will then easily win the succeeding special election.

Governor

Morning Consult: New Approval Ratings Rank Governors Highly — Morning Consult released their quarterly report on the nation’s governors Monday, and again we see almost all state chief executives posting strong job approval ratios. As has been the case for the past couple of years, Vermont Gov. Phil Scott (R) and Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon (R) have the strongest ratings at 84:13 percent and 74:16 percent positive to negative, respectively.

All but seven governors reached at least the 50 percent approval mark and only one, Mississippi’s Tate Reeves (R), was slightly upside-down with a 45:46 percent index. Yet, he was just re-elected to a second four-year term at the beginning of the month.

The top 10 highly rated governors are: Scott and Gordon; Govs. Josh Green (D-HI), Chris Sununu (R-NH), Kay Ivey (R-AL), Kristi Noem (R-SD), Jared Polis (D-CO), Ned Lamont (D-CT), Jim Justice (R-WV), and Spencer Cox (R-UT). Those with the poorest ratings are Reeves and Govs. Tina Kotek (D-OR), Kim Reynolds (R-IA), John Bel Edwards (D-LA), Katie Hobbs (D-AZ), Jay Inslee (D-WA), Dan McKee (D-RI), Tony Evers (D-WI), Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM), and Mike Parson (R-MO).

Another Close Poll in Ohio; Three Retirements — Ohio’s Wenstrup, NY’s Higgins, Kilmer of Washington

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 14, 2023

Senate

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)

Ohio: Another Close Poll — The Data for Progress research organization released their new Ohio Senate poll, which differs wildly from the Ohio Northern University (ONU) survey results published in mid-October. The DfP poll (Oct. 31-Nov. 2; 597 likely Ohio voters; online) finds virtual ties for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) with all three major Republican primary contenders. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose does the best among the Republicans, tying Sen. Brown at 46 percent apiece.

Opposite state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), the senator holds just a one-point, 47-46 percent, edge. His margin opposite businessman Bernie Moreno is only three points, 47-44 percent.

These results contrast with the ONU data that yielded Sen. Brown margins between 13 and 22 points against the same GOP opponents. The Data for Progress results, however, are more consistent with other polls conducted for this race. The Ohio campaign will be one of the nation’s top 2024 US Senate race and is considered a virtual must-win campaign for the GOP if the party is going to wrest the chamber majority away from the Democrats.

House

OH-2: Rep. Wenstrup to Retire — Ohio’s six-term US Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Hillsboro) announced via video message on Friday that he will not be seeking re-election in 2024. Wenstrup first came to Congress in 2012 when he scored an upset victory over then-Rep. Jean Schmidt in that year’s Republican primary. The congressman has not been seriously challenged since.

Ohio’s 2nd District contains all or parts of 16 southern counties that stretch from the eastern Cincinnati suburbs all the way to West Virginia. Republicans will have little trouble holding the district as an open seat and Wenstrup’s successor will be determined in the March 19 GOP primary. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+49. Former President Donald Trump carried the seat in 2020 with a whopping 72-27 percent majority. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks OH-2 as the 13th safest Republican seat in the GOP Conference.

NY-26: Rep. Brian Higgins (D) to Resign — New York US Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) clarified over the weekend that he will resign from the House in February in order to become president of the Shea’s Performing Arts Center in his home city of Buffalo. Rep. Higgins was first elected in 2004 from a 26th District that includes two-thirds of Erie County and almost three-quarters of Niagara County.

The Democrats should have little trouble holding this district, though a new open seat in western New York could influence what is likely a second round of redistricting to come early next year. Therefore, the confines of the Buffalo-anchored district could change.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-26 as D+18. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 61.4D – 36.1R partisan lean. President Joe Biden recorded a 61-37 percent win here in the 2020 election. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks this district as the 78th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

WA-6: Rep. Kilmer Won’t Seek Re-Election — Another six-term US House member also announced his retirement on Friday. Washington Congressman Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor) will leave the House after what will be 12 years in office at the end of the current Congress. Rep. Kilmer indicated in his retirement announcement that it is time for a new challenge.

Washington’s 6th District encompasses the Olympic Peninsula, the large area west of Seattle and the Puget Sound that stretches to the Pacific Ocean. The 6th is reliably Democratic, and the August partisan primary will likely determine Kilmer’s successor. Before Rep. Kilmer won the seat in 2012, then-Rep. Norm Dicks (D) held the 6th District for 36 years.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates WA-6 as D+10, but Dave’s Redistricting App suggests a stronger 55.8D – 42.4R partisan lean advantage. President Biden won the 6th District constituency with a 57-40 percent victory margin. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks WA-6 as the 57th most vulnerable Democratic seat.