Virtual Tie Between Trump, Harris; Movement in Texas to Fill Jackson Lee’s Seat; Six Dems Criticize VP Harris’s Role in Securing Border

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 26, 2024

President

National Polls: A Virtual Tie — From July 21-24, eight political pollsters conducted national ballot tests of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The surveys produced mixed results. All were conducted online and came from Activote, YouGov, Ipsos, RMG Research, Big Village, Change Research, Morning Consult, and the New York Times/Siena College. The range was from Harris, plus-four to Trump, plus-3. Of the nine polls (YouGov ran two), Trump was ahead in five and Harris four.

New Hampshire: First Polls Favor Harris — While polling was showing former President Trump pulling just ahead of President Biden in New Hampshire before the latter man left the race, two new surveys see a reversal back toward the Democratic nominee in identical margins.

St. Anselm’s College and the University of New Hampshire, both regular Granite State pollsters, went into the field to test Trump against presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. St. Anselm’s (July 24-25; 2,083 registered New Hampshire voters; online) sees Harris leading Trump, 50-44 percent. UNH (July 23-25; 2,875 registered New Hampshire voters; online) found a similar 49-43 percent spread. Both detected the six-point margin.

Trump did not run well in New Hampshire in the last election, losing to President Biden, 53-45 percent. Therefore, continued polling results such as seen in these two flash polls may suggest the Trump campaign will move to more fertile territory.

House

TX-18: Potential Candidates Begin Making Moves — The death of veteran Texas US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) means the Harris County Democratic Party will choose a replacement on the November ballot for her. The Committee members must make their selection before Aug. 26, but the leadership indicates the body will act well before the deadline.

Potential Democratic candidates include former Houston mayor and ex-state Representative Sylvester Turner, at-large Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer, and former US Senate and congressional candidate Amanda Edwards. The 18th District, fully contained within Harris County, is heavily Democratic. Therefore, whomever the party members choose will assuredly win the seat in November. Thus, this small group of activists will have the power to designate the area’s next member of Congress.

House Democrats: Vulnerable Members Break Ranks — Six Democrats broke party ranks to support a Republican resolution criticizing Vice President Harris’ role in securing the border. Not surprisingly, the six are all in competitive House districts, and among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents seeking re-election. They are: Reps. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO-8), Henry Cuellar (D-TX-28), Don Davis (D-NC-1), Jared Golden (D-ME-2), Mary Peltola (D-AK-AL), and Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-WA-3).

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