Tag Archives: California

Rep. Raskin Won’t Run for Senate; Retired Navy Captain Running for Senate in Virginia; House Race Updates; New Mexico Supreme Court Allows Gerrymandering Case

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 11, 2023

Senate

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park)

Maryland: Rep. Raskin Won’t Run for Senate — Saying, “if these were normal times, I’m pretty sure I would run for the Senate,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park) said he will not enter the race to succeed retiring Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin (D). The congressman, as he has in the past, continued to thank the medical personnel who helped him through six rounds of five-day chemotherapy treatments that appears to have eradicated his cancer. Raskin further said he can best way he can “make a difference in American politics,” is to seek re-election to the US House. He will be a prohibitive favorite to win a fifth term next year.

Virginia: Ex-Congressional Candidate Announces for Senate — Retired Navy Capt. Hung Cao (R), who held Rep. Jennifer Weston (D-Leesburg) to a 53-47 percent re-election win in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+8 and the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean projects a 55.2D – 43.0R Democratic advantage, will now attempt to challenge Sen. Tim Kaine (D).

Cao faces eight announced opponents in the Republican primary but will likely be favored to win the party nomination. He will be a clear underdog against Sen. Kaine, but Cao will give the Republicans a credible nominee and potentially a candidate who can forge bridges into the state’s substantial Asian community. The demographic now accounts for 8.2 percent of the statewide population, but almost 16 percent in the Northern Virginia region, where Republicans don’t fare well.

House

CA-34: Rep. Gomez Rival Returns for Third Race — Largely because there is no inter-party political drama in California’s 34th Congressional District located wholly within Los Angeles County that contains a large portion of downtown LA, the two close races between Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) and former prosecutor David Kim (D) have generated little publicity. In 2020, Rep. Gomez defeated Kim, 53-47 percent in the first of their two double-Democratic general elections. In 2022, the congressman’s margin dropped to 51-49 percent. On Friday, Kim announced that he will return for a third run.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-34 as D+63, and President Joe Biden defeated former President Donald Trump here, 81-17 percent. The district is almost 88 percent minority. The Hispanic segment accounts for 61.6 percent of the population, while Asians comprise 20.4 percent. Expect this race to again be close and Kim must be considered a significant challenger candidate.

New Mexico: State Supreme Court Allows Republican Lawsuit to Proceed — The New Mexico Supreme Court ruled unanimously at the end of last week that the Republicans’ political gerrymandering lawsuit can move forward against the state. Reflecting upon the US Supreme Court’s recent ruling on the North Carolina judicial role in redistricting, the state high court is in much stronger position to review the 2021 congressional and state legislative maps as political gerrymanders. For example, the congressional plan eliminated the state’s lone Republican seat in the current draw.

Whether the map will be invalidated is yet to be determined, but the high court agreed that the case has merit to continue.

PA-7: New Challenger Emerging — In the past two elections in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton 7th District of Pennsylvania, Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) has won two 51-49 percent victories over former Lehigh County Commissioner and businesswoman Lisa Scheller (R). On Friday, a new candidate, Pennsylvania Convention Center director and DeSales University trustee Maria Montero (R), filed a congressional campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission.

While Scheller is not expected to return for a third run, Montero is likely to have Republican primary competition. Technology firm owner and 2022 congressional candidate Kevin Dellicker, who held Scheller to only a 51-49 percent GOP primary victory, is expected to again surface as a candidate. State Rep. Ryan MacKenzie (R-Macungie) is another potential participant.

The 7th District general election should again be highly competitive. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4, but Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean in the Democrats’ favor, 50.4D – 47.4R.

UT-2: Two File Special Election Petition Signatures — After the Utah 2nd District Republican endorsing convention chose congressional legal counsel Celeste Maloy to replace her boss, Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington), most contenders from the large field ended their Sept. 5 special primary election campaigns.

Two, however, are moving forward. Former state Rep. Becky Edwards and ex-Republican National Committeeman Bruce Hough were the only two who submitted petition signatures in an attempt to qualify for the special primary ballot. It remains to be seen if there are 7,000 valid 2nd District registered voter signatures from each of their submissions.

Assuming the pair qualifies, the three candidates will comprise the primary election field. The winner will advance to a Nov. 21 election against the unopposed Democratic candidate, state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights), and any Independent or third party contender who can also qualify for the ballot. Rep. Stewart has announced he will leave office on Sept. 15.

New California Senate Entry; Montana’s Sheehy Gets Major Endorsement; Former Nevada Senate Candidate Ready to Announce; Louisiana & North Carolina Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Senate

Former Google executive Lexi Reese

California: New Senate Entry — Wealthy former Google executive Lexi Reese (D), who says she will spend some of her own fortune on the open statewide US Senate race, announced that she will enter the California March 5 all-party primary for the right to succeed retiring Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D).

While her path to claim one of the two qualifying positions necessary for advancing into the general election is narrow since she faces sitting US Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), the chances of her taking enough Democratic votes to potentially allow a Republican to sneak past the Democratic field and clinch a general election ballot slot becomes more plausible. The California Senate race will be one of the main attractions on Super Tuesday.

Montana: Another Major Endorsement for Sheehy — On the heels of retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy announcing his senatorial campaign and receiving the National Republican Senatorial Committee endorsement, another has come his way. Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) also announced his public support for Sheehy.

It is clear the Republican political establishment is getting solidly behind Sheehy in an attempt to deny Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), who soon will announce his own Senate candidacy, the nomination. Rep. Rosendale begins with a large polling lead, so it will be worth watching to see if the Montana Republican establishment has enough pull to thwart a strong Rosendale bid. The eventual party nominee then challenges three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D) in what should be considered a must-win contest for the GOP.

Nevada: Former Candidate Ready to Announce — Disabled Afghan War veteran Sam Brown lost the 2022 Senate Republican primary to former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, but raised more than $4.4 million for his race, which caught the attention of the Nevada Republican leaders. Reports are surfacing that suggest Brown will return for the 2024 campaign and will announce his intentions this month. Should he enter the Republican primary, he will face former state assemblyman and ex-Secretary of State nominee Jim Marchant.

The eventual Republican nominee will then challenge first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in what has the potential of becoming a top-tier 2024 Senate race.

Governor

Louisiana: Dueling Polls — Two all-party jungle gubernatorial primary polls have been released brandishing very different conclusions. The Remington Research Group (June 22-25; 896 likely Louisiana voters) released a survey this week that projected a close open contest. They found the lone Democratic candidate, former Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson, who is now the officially endorsed party candidate, usurping all Republicans to capture the lead with 27 percent, two points ahead of Attorney General Jeff Landry. Former Louisiana Chamber of Commerce CEO and ex-gubernatorial chief of staff Stephen Waguespack placed a relatively close third with 16 percent.

WPA Intelligence released their earlier poll to counter the Remington data. In their survey (June 15-17; 500 registered Louisiana voters; live interview & text) WPAi sees Landry (R) leading the candidate field with a 35 percent preference figure. Former Secretary Wilson secures the second general election runoff slot with 17 percent. In this poll, Waguespack (R) is a distant third with six percent support.

The Louisiana open governor’s primary is scheduled for Oct. 14. Since it is likely that no candidate will receive majority support, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, will advance into the general election runoff, which is on the calendar for Nov. 18. Incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards (D), who has already endorsed Wilson, is ineligible to seek a third term.

North Carolina: Budding Dem Primary on the Horizon — It has been presumed that Attorney General Josh Stein (D) would see little in the way of Democratic primary opposition in his bid to succeed term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper (D), but such may not ultimately be the case. Democratic state Supreme Court Justice Michael Morgan made a public comment late last week that clearly suggests he is seriously considering becoming a gubernatorial candidate.

Understanding that Stein was only re-elected attorney general with just 50.1 percent of the vote in 2020, many in the Democratic Party may believe the party would fare better with a fresh face come the 2024 general election. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and former Congressman Mark Walker are the leading Republican candidates. This is a developing story.

More Republicans to Enter Presidential Race; Dodgers Great Garvey Considers Running for Senate; A Democratic House Challenger Switches Up; New Hampshire Gov Candidate Announces

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 5, 2023

President

June 7: Two Announcements — It appears three more Republicans will soon enter the presidential contest, two on the same day. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will announce his 2024 presidential campaign tomorrow, Tuesday, June 6, at a town hall in Manchester, New Hampshire. Former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum are reportedly preparing announcements for this Wednesday, June 7, which would expand the official field to nine candidates with others, such as New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu looming as potential candidates.

Senate

Steve Garvey, former LA Dodgers great

California: Baseball Great May Enter Senate Race — Retired Los Angeles Dodger and San Diego Padre Steve Garvey (R) is considering entering the open US Senate race according to a story in the Los Angeles Times. Though Garvey has been retired as a player for 36 years after playing from 1969-1987, he still serves as an expert commentator in Major League Baseball, and his name remains well known in California’s two largest metro areas, Los Angeles and San Diego. For Republicans to have any chance in such a large state, they must begin with a candidate who is already well known.

While any Republican has little chance of winning a California general election, placing first in a crowded all-party jungle primary could be another story. With at least three strong Democrats in the open primary race, Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and Adam Schiff (R-Burbank), a unified minority Republican party coalescing behind a candidate like Steve Garvey would give the retired baseball player a strong chance of placing first in the jungle primary and securing a slot in the general election. This would mean that two of the three prominent House members would be eliminated in the March 5 primary election. This is a developing story.

House

CA-45; 47: One Challenger Switches Races — California Board of Equalization member Mike Schaefer (D), an announced congressional candidate for the 45th District seat that Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) holds, has decided to end his campaign and re-establish it in neighboring District 47, which will be an open seat.

The Democratic side in the Steel district is packed. Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen, and attorneys Cheyenne Hunt, Aditya Pat, and Jimmy Phan are all announced and active candidates. The 47th District, which Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) is vacating to run for Senate, finds state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine), television writer Lori Kirkland Baker, and several minor candidates running.

With Sen. Min’s recent conviction for drunk driving, and ex-Rep. Harley Rouda (D) having to withdraw for health reasons, Schaefer perceives an opening. The eventual November Democratic finalist will likely oppose Republican former state assemblyman and 2022 congressional finalist Scott Baugh. The California all-party jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Governor

New Hampshire: New Democrat Comes Forward for Gov Race ‘24 — New Hampshire Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D) declared late last week that she will enter the 2024 governor’s race. The Executive Council, unique to New Hampshire, is a five-member elected board that provides a check on the governor’s power. Previously, Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) announced that she will not seek re-election to her current position and instead filed a gubernatorial exploratory committee.

Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is not expected to seek a fifth two-year term, instead likely moving forward with a presidential bid. Therefore, an open governor’s race would be highly competitive in New Hampshire, which still qualifies as a swing state where either party can sweep a statewide ticket.

Several Republicans have been discussed as gubernatorial possibilities in the event that Sununu does not run. The most prominent in terms of saying he would enter an open race is former State Senate President Chuck Morse, who lost the 2022 US Senate primary by one percentage point.

Big Change for DeSantis in GOP Poll; Trump Ahead Big in New Poll;
PA’s Mastriano’s Surprise;
Late Congressman’s Daughter Enters AZ-3 Race; New Candidates in MN-2

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 31, 2023

President

Presidential candidate and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis

California: New GOP Primary Data Shows Big Change — The University of California at Berkeley’s Institute for Government Studies surveyed the California electorate and found a major change from their February poll. This new survey (May 11-17; 7,465 registered California voters; 1,853 registered Republicans; online) projects former President Donald Trump moving into a big lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, which is a marked change from February when the reverse was true.

According to the ballot test results, Trump holds a 44-26 percent lead over Gov. DeSantis with no other candidate even reaching five percent. In February, Gov. DeSantis led 39-27 percent. The surprising data point is that both candidates still maintain very high favorability indexes from the California GOP electorate, unusual when one candidate has such a big lead. Trump holds a 74:23 percent favorable to unfavorable ratio while Gov. DeSantis registered 75:15 percent. It is important to remember, however, that California uses a congressional district delegate apportionment system, so the statewide numbers are less important than in other places.

Iowa: Trump Leading Big in New Poll — The latest Emerson College survey of Republican potential Iowa Caucus voters (May 19-22; 442 likely GOP Iowa caucus voters; multiple sampling techniques) gives former President Donald Trump a huge 62-20 percent advantage over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with no other candidate reaching six percent. It is important for DeSantis to do well in the early nomination events if he is to overtake Trump, but starting this far behind makes his task all the more difficult.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Mastriano’s Surprise Announcement — Despite signals to the contrary, state senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano (R-Chambersburg/ Gettysburg) announced at the beginning of the weekend that he would not run for the US Senate and will instead seek re-election to his state Senate position. The move opens the door for 2022 Senate candidate and former hedge fund CEO David McCormick to run virtually unencumbered for the nomination, something that will be necessary in order to fully compete against Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D).

Though this allows the Republicans to field a stronger candidate than Mastriano, who was defeated 56-42 percent in the governor’s race, Sen. Casey must still be viewed as the favorite to win re-election next year.

House

AZ-3: Late Congressman’s Daughter Enters Race — Phoenix City Councilwoman Laura Pastor (D) announced that she will run for the open Phoenix-anchored 3rd District, the seat her late father, Rep. Ed Pastor (D), represented for seven terms. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) currently represents the seat, but is leaving the House to run in the three-way contest for US Senate.

Along with Pastor, Osborn School Board Member Ylenia Aguilar, Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassiman Ansari, Glendale School Board Member Hector Jaramillo, and former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran comprise the early Democratic primary. The 3rd District is heavily Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat D+44, so the battle to succeed Rep. Gallego will be fought in the Democratic primary.

MN-2: New Candidates Emerge — In the past two election cycles, Republicans fielded USMC Reserve Officer Tyler Kistner as their 2nd District congressional nominee, but he lost twice to Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) by close margins: 48-46 percent in 2020, and 51-46 percent last November. Now, others are coming forward believing a fresh candidate would provide the GOP a better chance of upending Rep. Craig.

Originally, former Lexington Mayor Mike Murphy (R) announced his candidacy and now Attorney Tayler Rahm joins the field. Apparently, Kistner has not ruled out making a third run against Rep. Craig, but he has also made no discernible move to enter the race. Regardless of what happens in the Republican nominating convention and/or primary election, Rep. Craig will be favored for re-election.

Robson Won’t Run in Arizona;
Second Lee Poll Confirms First in CA; First Texas Senate Poll Released; House Races Take Shape

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 30,2023

Senate

Former University of Arizona Regent Karrin Taylor Robson (R) announced late last week that she would not enter Arizona’s Senate race.

Arizona: Robson Won’t Run — Former University of Arizona Regent Karrin Taylor Robson (R), who lost a 48-43 percent gubernatorial Republican primary to Kari Lake in 2022, announced late last week that she would not enter what will be a three-way Senate race among the eventual GOP nominee, Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, and who appears to be a consensus Democratic candidate, US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix). Lake is a likely GOP Senate candidate.

The Arizona race continues to evolve as possibly the most interesting campaign in the election cycle considering it yields a three-way contest where each of the major candidates, Sen. Sinema, Rep. Gallego, and the undetermined Republican will have a legitimate path to victory.

California: Second Poll Confirms First — A second California Senate poll released in consecutive days, this one from the University of California at Berkeley for the Los Angeles Times (May 17-22; 7,465 registered California voters; 5,236 likely jungle primary voters; online), found similar results to Rep. Barbara Lee’s (D-Oakland) internal data from the FM3, Evitarus, and HIT Strategies research firms that was released on Wednesday.

As in the Lee survey, Republican Eric Early is the jungle primary leader. The LA Times/UC survey finds him attracting 18 percent support, with Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) close behind at 17 percent. Following are Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) and Lee, who post 14 and nine percent, respectively. The Lee poll found a 27-24-21-11 percent division in the same order but with Early posting a larger margin.

Texas: First 2024 Senate Poll Released — Building upon Rep. Colin Allred’s (D-Dallas) US Senate announcement, the University of Texas at Tyler’s recent poll (May 10-21; 1,413 registered Texas voters; live interview & online) finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading his probable general election opponent, 42-37 percent. If Texas polling history remains constant, in 2024 we can expect relatively close ballot tests reported throughout this campaign between the two-term incumbent and Rep. Allred, with Sen. Cruz in the end winning with a larger margin than forecast.

House

AZ-6: Contested Dem Primary — The 2022 battle for Arizona’s southeastern politically marginal 6th Congressional District saw Republican Juan Ciscomani defeating then-state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) by a tight 50.7 – 49.3 percent margin. Engel is returning for a re-match, but she will not have a clean primary.

Already, two Democrats have announced their candidacies, one just this week. Previously, former local school board member Vieri Tenuta declared for the seat. Now, business consultant and non-profit organization executive Jack O’Donnell has also entered the Democratic primary. The nature of the district suggests another close general election battle, but the contested August primary will likely help Rep. Ciscomani better position himself for the November election.

DE-AL: Preliminary Moves Being Made — Though at-large Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington) has yet to say she will run to succeed retiring Sen. Tom Carper (D), already we see four state legislators beginning to position themselves to run for what they believe will be an open US House seat. State Senate Majority Leader Bryan Townsend (D-Newark), Senate Majority Whip Elizabeth Lockman (D-Wilmington), senator and former Obama White House aide Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington), and state Rep. Kerri Evelyn Harris (D-Dover) are all considered potential federal candidates.

DeSantis Officially Declares;
Rep. Lee Releases New Poll;
No Re-Match in NJ-7 for Rep. Kean

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 26, 2023

President

Gov. Ron DeSantis: Officially Declares — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis formally made his long-awaited presidential announcement in a technically flawed Twitter interview with Elon Musk. Simultaneously, the Never Back Down Super PAC, an organization supporting DeSantis, said they are planning to recruit an operation of 2,600 people to visit targeted homes of voters in the key early caucus and primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Therefore, with other candidates soon to announce, the slow developing 2024 presidential campaign finally looks to be getting underway in earnest.

Senate

California US Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland)

California: Rep. Lee Releases New Poll — California US Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) released the results of a three-pollster conglomeration that included 1,380 California likely voters mostly via live interview with some text responses over the May 13-21 period. The three involved polling firms were FM3, Evitarus, and HIT Strategies.

For the first time in a statewide open US Senate poll, a Republican candidate, former Attorney General contender Eric Early was added to the questionnaire. With a split among the three Democratic House members of Reps. Lee, Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Early placed first in this comprehensive jungle primary survey with a preference figure of 27 percent. Reps. Porter, Schiff, and Lee followed with 24, 21, and 11 percent, respectively.

The result is interesting in that the ballot test suggests a Republican could well advance into the general election with two of the Dem House members eliminated from the competition. Clearly, this jungle primary will be another of the most interesting races we will see on the March 5th Super Tuesday election calendar.

House

NJ-7: No Re-Match — New Jersey’s 7th District is a politically marginal seat anchored in Union County, but the voters there will not see the third version of a Tom Kean Jr. vs Tom Malinowski campaign. In 2018, Malinowski converted the seat for the Democrats, defeating five-term GOP incumbent Leonard Lance. The Democratic congressman then won a close re-election race against Republican Tom Kean. The 2022 re-match went Kean’s way, though, and Malinowski announced Wednesday that he will not return for a rubber match.

The 7th District became more Republican in redistricting but is still competitive. Rep. Kean will definitely face a strong Democratic opponent in 2024, but it will not be Malinowski. State Senate President Nick Scutari (D-Linden) and Assembly Deputy Majority Leader Roy Freiman (D-Hillsborough) are two potential Democratic candidates.

Note: In observance of Memorial Day, Monday, May 29, we will not publish our regular updates. Our next one will be Tuesday, May 30.

Texas Rep. Allred’s Looming Challenger; Calif. Reps. Kim, Levin Attract New Opponents; NY-4 Re-Match Forming

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 12, 2023

Senate

Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas)

Texas: Rep. Allred Unlikely to Have Free Ride — Last week, Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) announced that he would enter the 2024 Senate race to challenge two-term incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R). At that time, most believed Allred would be virtually unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Previously, state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio) indicated an interest in challenging Sen. Cruz, but he largely became a second thought when Rep. Allred declared his candidacy. Most then believed that Gutierrez would not force a Senate nomination campaign. However, the senator indicated Wednesday that he in fact is still considering launching a US Senate campaign and is headed toward becoming a candidate.

Coming from the district that houses the city of Uvalde, the site of the tragic 2022 school shooting, and the Del Rio community, where most of the illegals are entering the country on the Texas border, Sen. Gutierrez certainly represents some of the hot points in Lone Star State politics. Rep. Allred would still be favored to win the party nomination but adding Sen. Gutierrez to a competitive Democratic primary would certainly add spice to this intra-party campaign.

House

CA-40: Rep. Kim Attracts New Opponent — Retired Fire Captain Joe Kerr (D), who drew only 11 percent of the vote in a 2022 state Senate race in another part of Orange County, announced that he will now challenge two-term Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) next year. Rep. Kim defeated physician Asif Mahmood (D) 57-43 percent in a district that was 80 percent new territory from the 39th District in which she had originally won her first congressional election.

While it is clear the Democrats will need a stronger candidate to oppose Rep. Kim than Dr. Mahmood, it is probable that Kerr is also not the type of candidate who can unseat this more than capable Republican incumbent.

CA-49: A New Opponent for Rep. Levin — In both California’s 40th and 49th Congressional Districts, we see two candidates who lost the same 2022 state Senate race venturing into congressional contests. Auto dealer Matt Gunderson (R), who lost the general election to State Sen. Catherine Blakespear (D-Encinitas), says he will challenge Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano/La Jolla) in a CD that closely resembles the state legislative seat where he received 48 percent of the vote last year.

The 49th CD that stretches from Orange County south into San Diego, is a politically marginal district. The FiveThirtyEight data organization assigns a D+5 rating, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 52.0D – 46.0R. Rep. Levin has three times defeated ex-San Juan Capistrano mayor and councilman Brian Maryott (R). In 2022, the margin was 53-47 percent. While clear the Republicans need a new candidate to compete in this district, it remains to be seen if Gunderson can wage an effective enough campaign to unseat the three-term incumbent.

NY-4: Re-Match Forming — Freshman Long Island Republican Congressman Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) holds — along with California Rep. David Valadao’s (R-Hanford) 22nd District — the most Democratic seat in the country that elects a Republican to the House. Now, it appears that he will be facing a re-match with the woman he defeated in 2022, former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen (D). The 2022 result was 51-47 percent in D’Esposito’s favor.

Long Island’s 4th District includes the town of Hempstead and the Garden City, Oceanside, Freeport, and Valley Stream communities among others. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+10. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 59.6D – 38.9R. President Biden carried the district with a 56.8 – 42.2 percent margin, which suggests that Rep. D’Esposito has a difficult road to re-election in a presidential election year.