Tag Archives: Rep. Bob Good

Surprising Wisconsin Presidential Poll, Yet Sen. Baldwin Maintains Lead & Close WI House Race; Sheehy Leading in Latest Montana Survey; Good’s Virginia Recount Timetable

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 2, 2024

President

Wisconsin: Marquette Poll Yields Surprising Responses — Marquette University Law School released their quarterly Wisconsin electorate poll (June 12-20; 871 registered Wisconsin voters; live interview) and found some seemingly inconsistent answers particularly relating to former President Donald Trump’s New York conviction.

Marquette poll yields surprising results. (Click here or on image above to see: Marquette University Law School’s released quarterly Wisconsin electorate poll)

On the presidential ballot test question, the registered voter sample broke 50-50 percent between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump when undecideds were pushed, and 44-44 percent on the initial question. Among those respondents considering themselves definite or likely voters, Biden held a 51-49 percent edge when respondents were pushed. When the independent and minor party candidates were added to the questionnaire, Trump went ahead 43-40 percent.

Perhaps most noteworthy, in responding to the question regarding Trump’s conviction, by a 54-28 percent margin, independents believe the former president is guilty of the charges. Yet, on the ballot test question, independents still broke for Trump 57-41 percent. This means that many of the Wisconsin respondents who believe Trump was guilty are still willing to vote for him in the general election.

Senate

Montana: Sheehy Leading in Latest Survey — Largely confirming the previously published Emerson College poll, a new survey again shows former President Trump with a huge Montana lead and GOP US Senate candidate Tim Sheehy far behind the top of the ticket but still within a position to win. The Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey (June 3-5; 500 likely Montana general election voters; live interview & text) finds Sheehy pulling ahead of Sen. Jon Tester (D) with a 46-43-4 percent lead. The ballot test included Libertarian candidate Sid Daoud, but not Green Party nominee Robert Barb. Both are expected to be on the general election ballot.

In a straight Tester-Sheehy head-to-head result, the two men are tied at 48 percent apiece, but 41 of Sheehy’s 48 percent say they are definitely voting for him versus only 35 percent of Sen. Tester’s contingent who say likewise.

Former President Trump leads President Biden by a whopping 54-36 percent. The generic question, i.e., “would you be most likely to vote for the Republican candidate or Democratic candidate for senator,” breaks 52-40 percent in favor of the Republican.

Wisconsin: Sen. Baldwin Maintains Lead in Regular Poll — As stated in the presidential section above, the Marquette Law School released their regular quarterly poll of the Wisconsin electorate (June 12-20; 871 registered Wisconsin voters; live interview) and in the Senate race again finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) leading Republican Eric Hovde by a 52-47 percent count when the undecided respondents were prompted to make a choice. On the initial question, Sen. Baldwin led 45-38 percent with 17 percent indicating they are undecided.

House

WI-3: Looming Close Race — The GQR survey research firm went into the field over the June 10-16 period (400 likely WI-3 general election voters; live interview) and finds western Wisconsin Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) holding only a small lead over small business owner Rebecca Cooke (D). The ballot test favors the freshman congressman by just a 50-46 percent margin. Van Orden’s favorability index, however, is barely positive at 41:40 percent.

Wisconsin’s 3rd District is anchored in the city of La Crosse and spans through all or part of 19 western counties. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+9, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a virtually even partisan lean. Former President Trump carried the seat in 2020 with a 51.5 – 46.8 percent victory margin despite losing the statewide count. Prior to Van Orden converting this seat to the Republican column in 2022, Democrat Ron Kind represented the district for 26 years.

VA-5: Rep. Good’s Recount Timetable — Local news reports are confirming that Virginia US Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) will request and pay for a recount of the June 18 primary results that find him trailing state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) by 374 votes according to the Virginia Board of Elections official count. The certification deadline is July 2 — today. After certification, a candidate can request a recount.

Though a 374-vote difference is not large — it translates into six tenths of a percentage point from a turnout of 62,792 votes — it is unlikely that a recount will change the final totals by such an amount. Rep. Good is also challenging the handling of ballots in the city of Lynchburg, a locality where the congressman won. Lynchburg election officials say the Good challenge would affect less than 10 ballots, even if his argument is proven correct.

Trump Now Supports Florida Rep. Lee; Florida State Rep. Leaves Race; McGuire Declares Victory in VA-5;

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 20, 2024

House

FL-15 Rep. Laurel Lee

FL-15: Trump Reverses Course Regarding Rep. Lee — In April, former President Donald Trump called upon his political support base to field a Republican primary candidate against freshman Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa) in what is the most competitive of the Florida Republican-held congressional seats. Lee, who Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed as secretary of state before her election to the US House, endorsed DeSantis as the Republican candidate for president, not Trump, which caused Trump to originally target her for defeat.

No strong challenger to Lee came forward, however, although one — James Judge, who ran in the 14th District in 2022 — decided to hop into the race against Rep. Lee when Trump made his statement. Therefore, with the lack of a credible developing challenge against Rep. Lee, Trump has now given his “complete and total endorsement” to the congresswoman. Rep. Lee looks to be in strong position for renomination and for re-election, though she faces a credible Democratic challenger in the person of Hillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp in a 15th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7.

FL-11: Ex-State Rep. Abandons Primary Challenge — Former Florida state Rep. Anthony Sabatini, who was defeated for the Republican nomination two years ago in the 7th CD (Rep. Cory Mills-R) and had subsequently launched a Republican primary challenge to Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) in the state’s 11th District almost a year ago, now drops his bid.

Instead, Sabatini will run for a local county commissioner position. Remaining in the primary against Rep. Webster is geophysicist John McCloy. Without Sabatini in the race, Rep. Webster should have an easy run in the Aug. 20 primary, and in the general election.

VA-5: McGuire Declares Victory — Though the race has not been officially finalized, it does appear that Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) has been defeated for renomination. His opponent, state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot), thinks so and has publicly declared victory. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, all the outstanding votes have now been counted and McGuire has a 309-vote lead. With only provisional and overseas ballots left to be received and counted, it is highly unlikely that even this small lead can be overcome.

Once final, Rep. Good will be the first 2024 cycle incumbent of either party to lose renomination to a non-incumbent challenger. The only other incumbent defeat in either the Senate or the House occurred in Alabama when Reps. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) and Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) were paired in a court ordered redistricting plan. Moore scored a 52-48 percent victory on March 5. Other primary defeats may soon follow, however. On Tuesday, Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Celeste Maloy (R-UT) face serious primary challenges, and Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) attempts to win renomination from a new congressional district.

Today’s Primaries; Libertarians Reject National Nominee; Two Major Unions Endorse Rep. Omar’s Opponent

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Primaries

Virginia Republican Congressman Bob Good (R-Lynchburg)

Today’s Vote: Georgia, Oklahoma, Virginia — Another round of primary elections is on tap today, with voters in Oklahoma and Virginia casting ballots in their full primaries, while certain Georgia districts will host runoff elections. The races of most interest come in central Virginia, where two-term Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) faces a serious opponent in state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot). This is a contest that could feature the first challenger victory of the primary season. At this point in contested House Republican and Democratic primaries, the incumbents are 11-0.

To complicate matters for Rep. Good, this is the first time he has faced a primary election. His two previous nominations were won through district conventions. Additionally, former President Donald Trump has endorsed McGuire, and ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy has raised substantial money toward a Super PAC that is attempting to unseat Good. The congressman was one of the leaders of the movement that ousted McCarthy from the Speakership.

House Appropriations Committee chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) is facing a multi-million dollar campaign coming from businessman Paul Bondar. Both men are heavily attacking each other; Rep. Cole hitting Bondar as a recent transplant from Texas, and the challenger attacking the incumbent as being out of touch with the district. Rep. Cole still favored for renomination.

The major runoff to be decided comes in western Georgia, where former Trump White House aide Brian Jack and state Sen. Mike Dugan (R-Carrollton) battle each other. Jack came close to winning the nomination outright in May but fell just short. Therefore, he appears to be a clear favorite heading into the secondary election.

President

Colorado: Libertarians Reject National Nominee — The Colorado Libertarian Party leadership, saying that the national party’s nominee, Chase Oliver, is “too moderate,” announced yesterday that they will not slate him for the general election. Instead, the state party leaders will inform the Colorado secretary of state as to whom the local organization will choose prior to the ballot certification deadline.

The Libertarian Party is the only minor party where in 2020 their nominee, Jo Jorgensen, had 50-state ballot access; 48 under the party name and in two, Alabama and Tennessee, where she appeared on the Independent line. Along with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, the non-Democratic and Republican finalists will likely be significant in the swing states where they appear on the ballot. In Colorado, the Libertarian line will only make a minor difference as President Joe Biden is a heavy favorite to win the state.

House

MN-5: Two Major Unions Endorse Rep. Omar’s Opponent — While three-term Minnesota US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) just launched a television ad talking about how proud she is to represent her constituents, two important labor unions endorsed her Democratic primary opponent, former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels. The United Steelworkers and the International Union of Operating Engineers both issued endorsements for Samuels, the campaign announced yesterday. In 2022, Samuels held Rep. Omar to a 50-48 percent renomination victory. The two again do battle in the state’s Aug. 13 primary election.

Rep. Omar is a member of the far left “Squad” within the House, and two other of its members, Reps. Cori Bush (D-MO) and Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), also face strong Democratic primary challenges in the coming weeks.

Undefeated, But for How Long?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 13, 2024

Incumbents

Virginia Republican Congressman Bob Good (R-Lynchburg)

With the Tuesday victories of South Carolina Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and William Timmons (R-Greenville), US House incumbents facing credible primary challengers have stacked up an 11-0 win record this cycle, but several of the most serious contests have yet to come.

In the next 12 days, three races will occur where the outcome is unclear. On Tuesday, Virginia Republican Congressman Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) faces state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) in a contest that could result in the cycle’s first non-redistricting related incumbent loss. A week later, Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) find themselves in the most volatile races.

Rep. Good, the chairman of the House Freedom Caucus and one of the leaders of the GOP movement to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy, faces a primary electorate for the first time. In his two previous victories, Good was nominated through district conventions.

The congressman’s endorsement of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis against former President Donald Trump in this year’s early primaries raised Trump’s ire to the point of him publicly supporting Sen. McGuire. McCarthy is also involved in the race, helping to raise and direct money toward toppling the incumbent in order to avenge his own loss.

According to the latest publicly released survey, the mounting opposition to Good may produce results. The WPA Intelligence organization released a poll at the end of last week (June 2-4; 300 likely VA-5 Republican primary voters; live interview) finding Sen. McGuire holding a 41-31 percent lead over Rep. Good.

Looking at the resource charts, the pre-primary reporting period (through May 29) showed Sen. McGuire raising $1.24 million as compared to Rep. Good’s $1.15 million. McGuire also had a $400,000 cash-on-hand advantage. The outside money likewise favored McGuire. According to the Open Secrets organization, funds spent for McGuire and against Good totaled approximately $4.1 million. The aggregate spending for Good and against McGuire is a much smaller $2.04 million.

Turning to the June 25 primary, a just-released Emerson College poll (June 6-8; 425 likely NY-16 Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Westchester County Executive George Latimer continuing to lead two-term New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) by a rather wide margin, 48-31 percent.

Latimer also has the advantage in campaign fundraising. In the early reports, he held more than a $1 million advantage in campaign receipts. In terms of outside spending, Latimer’s margin is even more favorable. Just under $10 million has been spent for Latimer and against Bowman, while the congressman sees only $1.6 million in Super PAC expenditures either for him or against Latimer. Most of the anti-Bowman money has come from an organization associated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

The bad news for Rep. Bowman continues. Former US Secretary of State and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) yesterday announced her formal endorsement of Latimer.

The electoral resume also favors the Westchester County Executive. Latimer represents 91 percent of the 16th Congressional District in his current position, and he was previously elected to the New York state Senate and Assembly.

The Centennial State primary is also scheduled for June 25, and while Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) today looks like she will score a victory in the 4th District Republican primary, she took a major gamble when she left the western slope district to move into the rural eastern Colorado open seat. It appears, however, the roll of the dice is paying dividends.

The latest 4th District poll finds Rep. Boebert holding a big lead, but arguably her strongest opponent, Logan County Commissioner Jerry Sonneberg, was not included on the candidates’ ballot test question. Therefore, the poll results are questionable. Regardless, the congresswoman appears headed to a nomination victory in less than two weeks.

The troubling part for Boebert may be in the post-primary general election, a surprise in what has proven to be Colorado’s most Republican seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CO-4 as R+26, and former President Trump scored a 58-39 percent victory there over President Joe Biden in 2020.

A late May Gravis Marketing survey (May 22-24; 423 likely CO-4 general election voters), however, found Rep. Boebert trailing badly. In this hypothetical race, Marine Corps officer and two-time Democratic congressional nominee Ike McCorkle posted a 41-27 percent advantage.

While the incumbents have posted a perfect record so far this election cycle, such a trend may soon change.

Incumbent Trend Could Soon Turn

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 6, 2024

Incumbents

New Jersey freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City)

We have now seen primary elections held in 22 states, meaning electorates in a majority of 242 US House districts have chosen their general election nominees, and we have yet to see one incumbent lose renomination to a challenger. Alabama Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) did lose to Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), but that was due to an incumbent pairing from a court-ordered redistricting directive.

Earlier in the week, New Jersey US Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) defeated his Democratic challenger, Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla, by a 54-36 percent margin in a race that polling and fundraising suggested would be close. To date, it appeared that Rep. Menendez was the most vulnerable House incumbent standing for renomination, but in the end he easily repelled the strong challenge.

Menendez, a freshman member of the New Jersey delegation, saw his favorability numbers tumble as a result of his father, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), and step-mother being indicted for bribery.

With Menendez and Iowa Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClair) and Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) winning their primaries on Tuesday, we’ve now seen the incumbents going nine for nine in non-jungle partisan primaries when facing a reasonably credible intra-party opponent. At least another 16 challenges are on tap in the remaining primaries.

The strong incumbent performances suggest we may be seeing early signs that the 2024 election cycle will be similar to 2022. In an election year when polling suggested that the public overwhelmingly believed, and still does, that the country is on the wrong track, and moving in the wrong direction, the voting public then turned around and re-elected virtually every incumbent on the ballot.

Two years ago, 56 senators and governors from both parties ran for re-election; 55 won. In the House, the incumbent retention rate for those seeking re-election was 98.1 percent. These are unusual statistics for an electorate demanding a change in public policy. Though we see the same unrest regarding government policies today, the early voting pattern suggests that, so far, we again see the juxtaposition of incumbents having a strong year even though the electorate is generally displeased.

The trend may soon change, however. Two of the most vulnerable incumbents facing primary challenges are on the ballot this month. Reps. Bob Good (R-VA) and Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) look to be in serious trouble as their respective primaries loom on the near horizon — June 18 for Good and a week later in Bowman’s case.

Rep. Good’s opponent is state senator and retired Navy SEAL John McGuire, who brandishes an endorsement from former President Donald Trump. Since Good was one of the key Republican House members behind the ouster of then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, another source of opposition is present. Thus, Rep. Good not only faces a Trump endorsement going against him, which has more often than not been golden in a Republican primary, but McCarthy is assisting in directing outside money to help ensure the congressman’s defeat.

Furthermore, competing in a primary is something new for Rep. Good. Previously, he won his nominations through a district party convention before a small number of delegates who favored him. Therefore, facing a credible opponent with backing from national party leaders in an unfamiliar election structure could well be enough to deny Congressman Good renomination.

Rep. Bowman is facing an even more difficult opponent than Good. George Latimer is the Westchester County Executive who represents 91 percent of Bowman’s 16th Congressional District’s constituency in his current position. Before being elected County Executive, Latimer served in the state Senate and Assembly. Latimer has also raised about $1 million more than Rep. Bowman, and even has the endorsement of one of the congressman’s fellow “Squad” members.

Former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D), who represented the adjoining Westchester County congressional district for a term, was a “Squad” member, and is trying to come back in this election. Earlier this week, Jones endorsed Latimer, a former employer, and publicly dispelled Bowman’s comments that Latimer is a racist.

Only two polls of this race have been released, and those were back in March. One showed the two men virtually tied, while the other yielded Latimer a 17-point lead. Yet, Bowman has not produced any countervailing data in the succeeding weeks.

Ironically, both Good and Bowman came to office by deposing an incumbent from their own party. Good, via the district convention, unseated freshman Rep. Denver Riggleman in 2020, while Bowman defeated veteran Congressman Eliot Engel in the Democratic primary of the same year. Now, both men could see the tables turn on themselves very soon.

Curtis Leads in New Utah Poll; California Dem Party Endorses Low; Michigan Candidate in Danger of Disqualification; Three Incumbents Being Outspent in NY, VA, SC

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 20, 2024

Senate

Utah Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo)

Utah: Rep. Curtis Leading in New GOP Poll — Four Republican candidates are vying for the right to succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R) in Utah’s June 25 primary election, but one is pulling away from the field. The Conservative Values for Utah super PAC commissioned a Guidant Polling & Strategy survey for the Utah Senate race (April 30-May 3; 600 likely Utah Republican primary voters) and released the results late last week. The ballot test finds US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) developing a large 41-14-9-2 percent GOP primary advantage over Riverton Mayor John Staggs, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman Jason Walton, respectively.

Mayor Staggs was officially endorsed at the Utah Republican Party Convention and earned former President Donald Trump’s support. Through submitting 28,000 valid signatures, Rep. Curtis and Wilson and Walton all successfully petitioned onto the primary ballot. The eventual Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite in the open general election.

House

CA-16: State Dem Party Endorses Low — With the recount of the tied jungle primary finish between San Mateo County Supervisor Joe Simitian (D) and state Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell), and awarding Low the second qualifying general election ballot position by five votes, the California Democratic Party has taken action. With Simitian not requesting a recount, even though many expected him to ask for a second canvass, the official California party issued an endorsement for Assemblyman Low.

The first-place finisher, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D), wrapped up his qualifying position on the March 5 primary election date. Neither Low nor Simitian requested an original recount because under California election procedure, tied candidates both advance into the general election. Instead, allies of Liccardo paid for the recount figuring the tally would move by a handful of votes, which proved true. Later, polling surfaced showing Liccardo doing better in a two-way race against either Low or Simitian, as opposed to a three-way all-Democratic battle. The November winner will replace retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton).

MI-13: Former State Senator in Danger of Being Disqualified — In 2022, then-state Sen. Adam Hollier (D-Detroit) lost a close crowded primary to then-state Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit), 28-24 percent, and vowed to try again in 2024. While Hollier announced for the seat and circulated petitions, the preliminary city clerk staff report indicates that his valid signature petitions will fall short of the minimum required number for ballot qualification. After the two-day public comment period expires, the city clerk will make the final decision of whether to award Hollier a ballot line.

Even without Hollier on the ballot, Rep. Thanedar will likely face a Democratic primary challenge from Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters and former Southfield City Clerk Shakira Hawkins. The Michigan primary is scheduled for Aug. 6.

House Incumbents: Three Being Outspent — Three US House incumbents are on the short end of spending battles in their respective primaries. Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), Nancy Mace (R-SC), and Bob Good (R-VA) all face tough challenges against credible opponents.

Reports are surfacing that, led by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s United Democracy Project, Westchester County Executive George Latimer is the beneficiary of a media spending advantage against Rep. Bowman of about $3 million to $171,000 according to the AdImpact media monitoring organization. The congressman had more than $1.4 million in his account through March 31 and can expect further outside money to help him close the voter contact gap in the final six weeks of the primary campaign.

Largely due to a PAC that former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s allies run, AdImpact estimates spending against Rep. Mace is approximately $4.3 million as compared to $2.5 million backing the congresswoman. Mace’s opponent is former Nikki Haley Administration official Catherine Templeton.

While there are no reported figures for the Virginia race to date, it is clear that challenger John McGuire, a Virginia state senator who has former President Trump’s endorsement, is well ahead of Rep. Good in advertising and polling. An early May Battleground Connect poll found Sen. McGuire leading Rep. Good, 45-31 percent. The congressman, like Rep. Mace, voted to oust former Speaker McCarthy.

House Speaker Vote Today;
Biden’s Approval Rating & A Beginning of the Election Cycle

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 3, 2023

House

House Republican Speaker nominee Kevin McCarthy (R)

Speaker Vote Today: Likely to Require More than One Ballot — For the first time in a century, it appears the Speaker’s election that will convene the 118th Congress, will require more than one roll call. With Republicans holding only a 222-212 majority with one Democratic seat vacant due to the death of Rep. Donald McEachin (D-VA), Republican Speaker nominee Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) does not appear to have the 218 votes that he needs to claim the gavel for the ensuing session.

Five Republican members have publicly said they will vote against McCarthy, and one of them, Arizona Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is an announced candidate for the position as he was in the Republican conference vote. The other four are Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), Bob Good (R-VA), Ralph Norman (R-SC), and Matt Rosendale (R-MT).

Another group of nine members signed a public letter questioning McCarthy’s ability to be a successful Speaker while stopping short of saying the signees will vote against him. They are Reps and Reps-Elect Dan Bishop (R-NC), Andrew Clyde (R-GA), Eli Crane (R-AZ), Paul Gosar (R-AZ), Andy Harris (R-MD), Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), Andy Ogles (R-TN), Scott Perry (R-PA), and Chip Roy (R-TX). It is these 14 members who will be key on the first roll call. Not voting for McCarthy within this group will certainly send the voting to a second ballot.

The other group to watch, possibly led by Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), are moderate Republicans who would coalesce with moderate Democrats to attempt to elect a compromise candidate. If the ballot drags on for more than two roll calls, it will be interesting to see which group begins to develop cracks. The membership will vote until one individual reaches the 218-vote threshold and thereby claims the Speakership.

President

Biden Approval: A Benchmark to Begin the Election Cycle — With the new Congress being sworn into office today, we begin the 2024 election cycle. Such being the case, let’s take a look at where President Biden’s job approval rating stands as he likely begins to prepare for a re-election run.

The two most recent survey reports during this holiday period came from Rasmussen Reports and the Morning Consult firm. Both organizations continually track presidential job approval on a daily basis. Rasmussen (sampling conducted through Pulse Opinion Research; Dec. 27-29; 1,500 US registered voters) projects the President to have a 47:51 percent favorable to unfavorable ratio. Morning Consult, which has been closer to a more consensus ratio among the plethora of typical job approval polling (Dec. 21-27; 45,000 US adults; online) finds Biden’s favorability index at worsened 42:51 percent favorable to unfavorable clip.

Comparing these two polls produces typical results since President Biden has always fared better with registered voter samples than among a respondent pool of adults. Still, it is clear that the president will begin the road to re-election with more people disapproving of his performance in office than those who approve.