Category Archives: House

Pennsylvania’s McCormick to Announce; Ex-San Jose Mayor Won’t Run; MI-13 Challengers; Anchorwoman to Run in PA-10; Progressive Mayor Elected

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2023

Senate

Former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R)

Pennsylvania: McCormick to Announce on Thursday — David McCormick, the former hedge fund CEO and Republican US Senate candidate who lost his 2022 party nomination bid to Dr. Mehmet Oz by just 950 votes, is reportedly poised to make a run at three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D) next year. He has scheduled an announcement event for Thursday, which should officially launch his 2024 campaign. Though it is unlikely that McCormick will face a strong challenge for the party nomination, Sen. Casey will begin the active campaign season as the clear favorite to win the race.

House

CA-16, 18: Ex-Mayor Won’t Run — Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) who said earlier in the year he was deciding whether to challenge Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) or Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose) in California’s March Democratic primary will not run against anybody. Instead, he has accepted a position with a legislative advocacy firm. Both Reps. Eshoo and Lofgren appear as prohibitive favorites to win another term in the House irrespective of who might be their Democratic primary and general election opponents.

MI-13: Two Will Return to Challenge Rep. Thanedar — Freshman Michigan Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit), who won a crowded open Democratic primary in 2022 with just 28 percent of the vote, will face at least two of the same opponents in his renomination fight next year. Former state Sen. Adam Hollier and John Conyers III, whose father held this same seat for 52 years, appear to be sure bets to return for another electoral battle. Once again, however, a crowded field will help Thanedar, because his opposition vote will be split. The Democratic primary will determine who represents the district. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MI-13 as D+46.

PA-10: Anchorwoman May Soon Declare — Veteran news anchorwoman Janelle Stelson (D) has resigned her position with WGAL-TV in Lancaster, PA, ostensibly to soon declare her candidacy opposite US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg). While Stelson is well known in the Lancaster area, a media market that touches York County, the bulk of the 10th District population lies in the Harrisburg/Dauphin County region. Therefore, she does not command district-wide name identification.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 10th District as R+9, which suggests a competitive race but one that a Republican should typically win. Rep. Perry was originally elected in 2012. He begins this race as a clear favorite for re-election.

Cities

Nashville, Tenn.: New Mayor Elected — The open mayoral runoff election was held on Tennessee’s unique Thursday election day at the end of last week, and the progressive left candidate, Freddie O’Connell an elected member of the Davidson County Metro Council, claimed the victory.

He easily defeated GOP strategist Alice Rolli on a 63-36 percent count. O’Connell will succeed Mayor John Cooper, brother of former Congressman Jim Cooper (D), who did not seek re-election.

South Carolina Primary Challenge; Utah Senate Candidates Post-Romney; Manchin Contemplating Party Exit; Census Estimates Released; Former NJ Governor May Return

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 18, 2023

Senate

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill)

South Carolina: Budding 2026 Primary Challenge — US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is confirming reports that he is considering challenging Sen. Lindsey Graham in the 2026 Republican primary. Rep. Norman, elected in a 2017 special election after winning six terms in the state House of Representatives, is a leader in the House Freedom Caucus. If he does run, he will oppose Sen. Graham from the party’s right flank.

Utah: AG Won’t Run — Immediately after Sen. Mitt Romney (R) announced he will not run for re-election, speculation about who might enter the race began running rampant. The two who appear as sure candidates are state House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville) and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs (R). One individual who rather surprisingly has already taken himself out of the Senate race is Attorney General Sean Reyes, who at one time was thought to become a Romney primary challenger. Late last week, Reyes said he will run for re-election as attorney general, thus bypassing the open Senate race.

West Virginia: Manchin Contemplating Party Exit — Reportedly, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D), who has not yet decided whether to seek re-election, make a third party run for president, or retire from politics, is also contemplating leaving the Democratic Party. Therefore, if he does run for office again a strong possibility exists that he will do so as an Independent.

Sen. Manchin faces a difficult re-election run as the West Virginia Democratic Party’s status has weakened considerably since he was last on the ballot in 2018. The senator was originally elected in a 2010 special election. He has served as West Virginia’s governor, secretary of state, and in both houses of the state legislature, all as a Democrat. West Virginia continues to be rated as the Republican’s top conversion Senate opportunity. Both Gov. Jim Justice and US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) are competing for the Republican nomination.

States

Census: Estimates Released — The Census Bureau has released new population growth statistics for the 50 states, Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. The fastest growing states for the period ending July 1, 2022, are Florida, Idaho, South Carolina, Montana, and Texas. The states losing the most population are New York, Louisiana, Illinois, California, and West Virginia. The population numbers are determinative to the number of congressional seats each state will possess in the next decade.

Cities

Jersey City, NJ: Former Governor May Return — Jim McGreevey (D), who was elected New Jersey’s governor in 2001 but who resigned because of a hiring scandal and gay love affair before the end of his first term, is contemplating making a political comeback. Apparently, a draft committee is being organized to encourage him to file for the Jersey City mayor’s post when it comes up for election next year.

In addition to being elected governor, McGreevey served as mayor of Woodbridge Township and spent six years in the New Jersey legislature. He has not run for any office since departing politics in 2004.

Biden Maintains Standing Against Kennedy; Trump Grows Stronger; New California Open-Seat Candidate; Ex-Candidate Returns to NC-8 Race

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 15, 2023

President

President Joe Biden / Photo by Gage Skidmore

President Biden: Maintains Standing Against Kennedy — The newly released Issues & Insights TIPP poll (Aug. 30-Sept. 1; 606 likely US Democratic primary voters; online) again finds President Joe Biden holding an overwhelming lead over Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a Democratic primary trial heat.

The margin, though still on the weak side for an incumbent president, considering that 32 percent of the Democratic respondents would choose a candidate other than Biden, continues to stake the President to a 68-10 percent margin.

More importantly than the Biden number, which fluctuates to a degree, the Kennedy support figure has remained consistent in the low double-digit range. The fact that we have seen little movement in the nomination campaign despite months of campaigning from Kennedy, suggests that the final result will not differ greatly from what we’re seeing in the multitude of similar polling totals.

Iowa: Trump Grows Stronger — The newly released Emerson College Hawkeye State survey (Sept. 7-9; 839 Iowa respondents; 357 likely Iowa Republican caucus attenders; multiple sampling techniques) stakes former President Donald Trump to a 50-39 percent advantage over President Biden in a head-to-head ballot test. If Green Party candidate Dr. Cornel West is added to the questionnaire, Trump would lead both Biden and West, 48-35-5 percent.

Comparing Trump’s current polling numbers to those found during the 2016 and 2020 election cycle indicates that the former president’s lead over Biden could be even greater. In the two previous elections, Trump clearly under-polled in Iowa surveys when compared with the ultimate final result.

House

CA-31: Ex-Rep Enters California Open Seat Campaign — Former US Rep. Gil Cisneros (D), who was elected in 2018 but defeated for re-election two years later in a pre-redistricting Los Angeles-Orange County congressional district, and then who served as a Defense Department Under Secretary in the Biden Administration, has once again become an unofficial congressional candidate. Cisneros this week filed exploratory committee documents with the Federal Election Commission that allow a potential candidate the ability to raise greater than $5,000 in campaign funds.

The former congressman is starting from scratch in his new CD. The open 31st District, from which veteran Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk) is retiring, has no constituent in common with the district that Cisneros previously represented. He won’t have money problems, however. You may recall that in 2010, Cisneros, then a recently retired US Navy officer, won a $266 million Mega Millions lottery so campaign funding should not be a particular issue for him.

State senators Bob Archuleta (D-Norwalk) and Susan Rubio (D-Baldwin Park) who represent large parts of the current CD will offer stiff competition, however. The seat will remain in Democratic hands, and it is likely that two Democrats will advance into the general election from the California top-two jungle primary system but there is no early guarantee that Cisneros will be one of the qualifiers.

NC-8: Ex-Candidate Harris to Return — In 2018, it looked for a time that Republican former pastor Mark Harris had won a southern North Carolina congressional seat. After challenges uncovered serious voter fraud and a new election was called, Harris withdrew from the campaign.

Then-state Sen. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) went on to claim the seat despite being badly outspent in the special general election. Now, Bishop is leaving the House to run for state attorney general. Harris announced Tuesday that he will return as a candidate in what will be an open 2024 election.

The district, however, may be drastically changed once the legislature submits a new redistricting plan sometime next month, so it is likely too early to forge any serious predictions. The only other announced candidate from either party is former Union County Commissioner Allan Baucom. Currently, Union County is the Republican bedrock of the 8th CD, a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as a whopping R+38.

Utah Sen. Mitt Romney to Retire; Local Wisconsin Republican Announces for Senate; Michigan Secretary of State Slates Trump; OH-13 House News

Utah Sen. Mitt Romney announces he will not run for re-election: C-SPAN

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 14, 2023

Senate

Utah: Sen. Mitt Romney to Retire — “It is time for a new generation of leaders,” Utah Sen. Mitt Romney (R) said yesterday. “I would be in my mid-eighties if I were to serve another full term.” With that, the Beehive State senator announced that he will not seek a second term next year.

Romney becomes the sixth senator — four Democrats and now two Republicans — to retire when their respective terms end in January of 2025. While Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Tom Carper (D-DE), and Ben Cardin (D-MD), are all retiring from politics, Indiana’s Mike Braun (R) is running for governor instead of seeking re-election.

Had he sought another term, Sen. Romney would have faced an active Republican primary challenge. Since he would not likely have fared well at the conservative-dominated Republican nominating convention, it is probable that he would have been forced to access the ballot via the petition signature route. Now, we will see a highly competitive GOP primary battle to succeed Romney in what will be an open-seat campaign.

Wisconsin: Local Republican Steps Forward — Trempealeau County Supervisor Stacey Klein (R) announced yesterday that she will enter next year’s statewide US Senate campaign with the hope of unseating two-term incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D). This race has been very slow to develop, and Klein now becomes the most politically accomplished individual in the Republican primary.

This, despite her western Wisconsin county serving as home to less than 30,000 individuals. Unless a more senior opponent soon announces, Sen. Baldwin could coast to a third term in what should be a very competitive political environment come November.

President

Michigan: Dem Secretary of State Slates Trump — Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) yesterday announced that she will award former President Donald Trump a ballot position on the Michigan primary ballot, unless a court decision directs otherwise. Benson stated that “… the courts, and not secretaries of state, should decide if the US Constitution disqualifies Trump.” The Michigan primary is scheduled for Feb. 27, 2024. Presumably, she will also slate Trump in the general election, again barring a court ruling, should the former president win the Republican presidential nomination. Michigan is a critical swing state, so ensuring a ballot position here is a must for the Trump campaign.

House

OH-13: Ex-GOP Chair Won’t Run for House — Jane Timken, the former Ohio Republican Party chair who was a 2022 US Senate candidate, announced yesterday that she will not enter next year’s Republican primary in Ohio’s Akron anchored 13th District. GOP candidates will be vying for the opportunity to challenge freshman Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron).

Announced Republican candidates are Hudson City Councilman Chris Banweg and 2022 congressional candidate Greg Wheeler. Republican leaders are reportedly attempting to recruit former state senator and ex-Rep. Kevin Coughlin.

The 13th will likely feature a competitive general election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+2. Dave’s Redistricting App, however, casts the partisan lean in the Democrats’ favor, 50.7D – 47.0R. President Joe Biden carried the district over former President Trump, 50.7 – 48.0 percent.

Sen. Cassidy Considers No Labels Party; Newsom Clarifies Potential Appointment; Another Challenger to Sen. Cruz Emerges; NM-3, NY-4 News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 13, 2023

President

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)

No Labels Party: Sen. Cassidy Says He’ll Talk — From Sunday’s NBC interview, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) admitted that he would “talk” to the No Labels Party leaders if they approached him about becoming their presidential nominee. Sen. Cassidy also explained it would depend upon who the major parties nominate, but he intimated if we are going to see a Biden-Trump re-match he would be more inclined to run as a third-party candidate.

Sen. Cassidy is the type of candidate the No Labels Party would like to recruit. It is clear their main goal is to deny former President Donald Trump re-election, so they will be looking for a candidate who has some ability to attract suburban Republican voters away from Trump. The No Labels Party will decide who to nominate, if anyone, at their national conclave scheduled for April 14-15, 2024.

Senate

California: Gov. Newsom Clarifies Potential Appointment — Some Democrats are still urging Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), who is suffering from failing health, to resign her seat so that Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) can appoint a more able individual. Gov. Newsom now says that he will only appoint someone who will serve as a caretaker if the vacancy were to occur.

The governor said it would be unfair to give an advantage to any of the candidates currently running for the Senate if he were to appoint one of the contenders. Early rumors suggested he was leaning towards appointing US congresswoman and 2024 Senate candidate Barbara Lee (D-Oakland). She hails from Newsom’s northern California political base, but his latest statement suggests he would now go in a different direction.

Texas: Another Cruz Challenger Emerges — Back in May when Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) announced his Senate campaign it looked as if the Democratic leadership had the candidate they wanted to challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R). Two months later, state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio) announced his candidacy, and then resigned Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez followed. Another candidate has now joined them — Dallas state Rep. Carl Sherman Sr. (D), a former local mayor and pastor.

While Rep. Allred still may top what is now becoming a crowded field, he will undoubtedly be forced to drain his campaign treasury just to win the nomination; he had raised over $6 million before the June 30 campaign finance quarterly report. Sen. Cruz will then be able to build an uncontested campaign treasury, and force all four Democratic candidates far to the left on key issues such as the Biden energy policy and the Texas-Mexico border.

House

NM-3: Ex-State Rep to Challenge Rep. Leger Fernandez — Former state Rep. Sharon Clahchischilliage (R), a member of the Navajo Nation who served three terms in the legislature before being defeated for re-election in 2018, announced that she will challenge two-term Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-Santa Fe) next year. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates New Mexico’s 3rd District as D+5, meaning we could see a competitive general election develop. In 2022, Rep. Leger Fernandez was re-elected with 58 percent of the vote, but against a Republican candidate who spent only $301,000 on her campaign.

NY-4: Democrat Withdraws — Sarah Hughes (D), who was a member of the 2002 US Olympic figure skating team and had formed a congressional exploratory committee earlier in the year to challenge Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), announced Monday that she will not pursue her candidacy. The top Democrats appear to be state Sen. Kevin Thomas (D-Nassau) and ex-Hempstead town supervisor and 2022 nominee Laura Gillen (D). In the face of such competition, Hughes’ chances of winning the Democratic primary were poor; hence, the decision to end her political quest.

New York’s 4th District, at D+10 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, is likely to become the Democrats’ top conversion opportunity in the country.

Five Republicans Lead Biden; Pelosi to Return; Hudson Announces in MI-3; Cox Draws GOP Challenge in Utah

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 12, 2023

President

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley / Photo by Gage Skidmore

CNN Poll: Five Republicans Lead Biden — The new CNN national poll (conducted by the SSRS research company, CNN’s regular polling firm; Aug. 25-31; 1,503 US adults; live interview & text) found no fewer than five of the announced Republican presidential candidates holding small leads over President Joe Biden in general election ballot tests.

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley fared best, scoring a six-point advantage over the president. Two-point leaders included former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), and ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Former President Donald Trump held a one-point edge, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis tied Biden. The only Republican contender to fall behind Biden, and by only one point, is businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.

This poll, consistent with many other findings, again sees the Republicans doing better in a sample comprised of adults as opposed to registered or likely voters. This suggests the GOP is doing better than Democrats with non-voters, meaning the party will have to find a way to identify, register, and turn these habitual non-voters into participants.

House

CA-11: Rep. Pelosi to Return — Though many expected 83-year-old former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) to retire, she instead announced a re-election bid for a 20th term in Congress late last week. In her statement, Rep. Pelosi said, “our country needs America to show the world that our flag is still there, with liberty and justice for ALL. That is why I am running for reelection — and respectfully ask for your vote.” She will easily be renominated and re-elected next year.

MI-3: Ex-Judicial Candidate Announces for Congress — Attorney and Michigan Supreme Court judicial candidate Paul Hudson (R), who finished fourth in a field of five 2022 candidates, announced for Congress at the end of last week. He hopes to oppose freshman Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+3.

Last November, Scholten defeated Republican John Gibbs, 55-42 percent, after he upset one-term Rep. Peter Meijer (R) in the GOP primary. The Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission transformed what was a safe Republican 3rd District that originally elected Meijer to one that favors the Democrats.

Hudson is the third announced Republican candidate but is clearly the most credible. Should he prevail in the Aug. 6, 2024, GOP primary, assessments will be made as to whether he will become a top-tier challenger candidate. MI-3, however, is the type of politically marginal district that the GOP must win in 2024 in order to protect and enhance the party’s slim majority.

Governor

Utah: Gov. Cox Draws GOP Challenge — State Rep. Phil Lyman (R-Blanding), who hails from San Juan County in the far southeastern corner of the Beehive State, which includes the “Four Corners” where Utah, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico meet, announced he will challenge Republican Gov. Spencer Cox in next year’s Republican convention and potentially the state primary.

Lyman, a land rights radical, received a pardon from former President Trump after the government arrested him for his protest activities. Gov. Cox may not be particularly popular with the Republican base, so Lyman may have a chance to assemble a significant support coalition at the state convention.

Former NASCAR Driver Declares in Maine; Ohio Redistricting Lines Stand; New Candidates in CO-8 & VA-2

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 11, 2023

House

Austin Theriault (R), retired NASCAR driver

ME-2: Former NASCAR Driver Declares for Congress — Austin Theriault (R), a retired NASCAR driver who is now a state representative from one of the Canadian border districts in northern Maine, is reportedly planning to challenge Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) in the most Republican district that elects a Democrat to the House. Rep. Golden has twice defeated now-former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) with the help of the Ranked Choice Voting system, which eliminates the possibility of a plurality victory.

Without Poliquin making a return appearance, Republicans need a fresh candidate to potentially take advantage of what could be a more favorable GOP turnout model. Former President Donald Trump has twice carried the 2nd District, in 2020 by six percentage points, so running with him in 2024 is more attractive than in other election years.

Ohio Redistricting: Lines Will Stand for 2024 — The Ohio State Supreme Court late this week rejected plaintiffs’ arguments that a new congressional map should be drawn, meaning the current lines will remain intact for the 2024 election. Under the original redistricting act’s passage, the map was to be reconfigured after four years, meaning before the 2026 election. That remains to be the case. In the meantime, activists are attempting to qualify a ballot initiative that would transform the Ohio redistricting system into a citizens’ commission. The initiative organizers need 413,000 valid Ohio registered voter signatures to qualify their measure for a vote in the 2024 election.

CO-8: GOP State Rep Announces Candidacy — State Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Westminster), an Army veteran and ex-police officer, has entered the 8th District Republican congressional primary with the quest of challenging freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) who represents one of the most politically marginal districts in the country. The 8th District was awarded to Colorado in the 2020 national apportionment formula due to extensive population growth.

The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission crafted the seat, just north of Denver, as one that either party can win in any election year. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+3, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a partisan lean that slightly favors the Democrats, 48.3D – 47.0R. President Joe Biden carried the district, 50.8 – 46.3 percent.

Rep. Evans, should he win the primary, will be a strong candidate for the Republicans. State Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County), who held Rep. Caraveo to a 48.4 – 47.7 percent tight victory, is not seeking a re-match. Instead, she is running for re-election to her current position in the state Senate. Weld County Commissioner Scott James will be opposing Evans for the Republican nomination.

VA-2: Democrats Recruit Challenger Candidate — In further evidence that defeated Rep. Elaine Luria (D) will not seek a re-match with freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach), Democrats have found a new candidate in the person of Missy Cotter Smasal, a Navy veteran and former state Senate candidate. At this point, she is the only announced Democratic contender and has support from former Gov. Ralph Northam (D) and newly elected US Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond).

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the Virginia Beach anchored 2nd District as R+6. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 50.1R – 48.3D.

WI-3: Former Local Board Chairman Enters Cong Race — Former La Crosse County Board chair Tara Johnson, who served 20 years on the local panel, announced that she is joining the Democratic primary in hope of challenging freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) in next year’s general election.

The race is getting more attention from Democrats who believe southern Wisconsin will be redrawn with their presumption that the new state Supreme Court Democratic majority will find a way to toss the current map. Johnson joins business owner and 2022 congressional candidate Rebecca Cooke in the Democratic primary. The seat appears relatively safe for Rep. Van Orden in its current configuration, but a redraw could drastically change the situation.