Tag Archives: No Labels Party

No Labels Party – Spoiler Alert? Sen. Menendez Says He’s Out; Rosendale Out, Again; Santos to Run Again

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 14, 2024

President

Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan

No Labels Party: Votes to Field Candidate — On Friday, the No Labels Party members voted to move forward with fielding a presidential ticket in this year’s election, but apparently the organization is not close to identifying who might be those contenders. Some within the organization suggested nominating former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R), who is critical of former President Donald Trump.

If No Labels were to go in this direction, it would signal that they are trying to be a spoiler — despite publicly saying that is not what their intention is — i.e., using a figure such as Duncan to draw votes away from Trump in the critical state of Georgia, which would give President Joe Biden a strong chance of again winning the state, thus assuring his re-election. Though the group wants to move forward with nominating a presidential candidate, the members are apparently a long way from selecting a ticket and gaining agreement from those who they might eventually choose.

Senate

New Jersey: Sen. Menendez Won’t Seek Re-Election — Facing multiple federal charges and consistent polling data showing him only with single-digit support within his own party, Sen. Bob Menendez (D) announced on Friday that he will not seek re-election later this year. This leaves the Senate Democratic field ostensibly to US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and Tammy Murphy, the state’s First Lady.

Sen. Menendez now becomes the ninth incumbent not to seek re-election in 2024, a figure that represents more than one-quarter of the 34 in-cycle senators. Of the nine, six are Democrats, two are Republican, and one, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who is now an Independent. Despite the large number of openings, it appears only two, Arizona and Michigan, will be competitive in the general election while three, Maryland, New Jersey, and Utah will see highly volatile Democratic (MD, NJ) and Republican (UT) primary elections.

House

MT-2: Rosendale Out, Again — Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), in a statement saying he has received recent death threats amidst rumors of an extra-marital affair, has now decided he will not file for re-election. Yesterday was the Montana candidate filing deadline. MT-2 again joins the open seat ranks, as it did when Rosendale announced his short-lived US Senate campaign in February, which lasted only a week. He will retire from the House after serving two full terms, one as the at-large representative, and the other from District 2 since Montana earned a new seat in 2021 reapportionment.

State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen announced before Rep. Rosendale decided to step aside that she would continue running for the House. State Auditor Troy Downing confirmed his congressional candidacy shortly after the congressman’s retirement announcement.

It is expected that most, if not all, of the seven other announced contenders, including former Congressman Denny Rehberg and state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City), will continue with their congressional campaigns. The Montana primary election will be held June 4. The new Republican nominee will be a lock to win the general election in an eastern Montana district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+30.

NY-1: Santos to Run Again — Expelled US Rep. George Santos (R), announced that he will indeed be on the ballot to return to Congress. He will not challenge Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove), who replaced him in New York’s 3rd Congressional District, but rather will oppose 1st District freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County). Santos calls LaLota an “empty suit RINO” (Republican In Name Only). LaLota was especially critical of Santos during his short tenure in office.

The new redistricting map makes the 1st District more Republican, but it is highly unlikely the new configuration will allow Santos to deny Rep. LaLota renomination. The New York primary is scheduled for June 25.

No Labels Party Announcement; California House Primaries Projected; Close IL-12 Poll;
Rosendale Challenger in Montana

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 8, 2024

President

No Labels Party: Announcement Today — Later today, the centrist No Labels Party, the leadership of which has been working to secure ballot position around the country, is scheduled to make an announcement about their future plans. It is unlikely that they will announce a presidential ticket to compete with President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump, Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and others, but they are likely to reveal the voting preference of their members to move forward with entering the presidential campaign. If so, the declaration of the presidential ticket will come at a later date.

House

California: House Primaries Projected — The Associated Press has projected several more qualifiers in California House races from the all-party jungle primary. In Rep. Adam Schiff’s (D-Burbank) open 30th District, with 68 percent of the vote counted, Assemblywoman Laura Friedman (D-Burbank) has qualified for the general election, topping a field of 15 candidates. She now becomes a prohibitive favorite in the general election from a Los Angeles County congressional district where President Biden recorded 72 percent of the vote in 2020.

Fortunately for Friedman, Republican Alex Balekian is projected to have topped state Sen. Anthony Portantino (D-Glendale) for the second qualifying position. Balekian uniting the small number of district Republicans was enough to propel him past a fractured Democratic field. In the general election, however, a Republican has almost no chance of winning the seat.

Farther south in San Diego, the AP has projected that auto dealer and 2022 state Senate finalist Matt Gunderson (R) has qualified as Rep. Mike Levin’s (D-San Juan Capistrano) general election opponent. Unlike District 30, the San Diego-Orange County 49th District is much more competitive. Rep. Levin will again be favored to win the general election, but this contest could become close. Though losing a state Senate race in 2022 with similar boundaries to District 49, Gunderson attracted 48 percent of the vote. Rep. Levin won his previous re-election with 52.6 percent of the vote against frequent congressional candidate Brian Maryott (R).

IL-12: Close GOP Primary Poll Released — Illinois pollster M3 Strategies released a survey of the 12th Congressional District Republican primary between Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) and former state senator and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey. The poll (March 2-4; 473 likely IL-12 voters) projects Congressman Bost to be holding only a 45-39 percent edge over Bailey. When undecideds are pushed for an answer, Bost’s lead expands to 54-46 percent, largely on the strength of the oldest voting demographic segment.

The 12th District is one of three seats in Illinois that will elect a Republican, so this race will be decided in the March 19 Republican primary.

MT-2: Rosendale Primary Building — Rep. Matt Rosendale’s (R-Glendive) jump in and out of the Senate race and lack of clarity over whether he would seek re-election after leaving the statewide contest has led to him having at least one major primary opponent. State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, one of nine Republicans who had announced their congressional candidacy when Rosendale appeared headed for the Senate race, declared yesterday that she will file as a candidate on Monday and force a primary challenge.

None of the other candidates have definitively said they are leaving or staying in the congressional race, so Monday’s Montana candidate filing deadline will prove interesting. Former Congressman Denny Rehberg, State Auditor Troy Downing, and state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City) are among the contenders who have yet to confirm or deny that they are continuing their congressional campaign now that the incumbent has decided to return.

Contrasting Polling Results in New Hampshire; Mississippi Senate, House News; Another House Retirement;
A No Labels Party Win in Arizona

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 19, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

New Hampshire: Suffolk’s Different View — Yesterday, we reported upon an American Research Group survey that posted former President Donald Trump and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley into a 40-40 percent tie for the coming New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23. Suffolk University’s new data release, however, has a much different take.

Their poll (Jan. 15-16; 500 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; live interview) sees Trump with a substantial 16-point lead over Haley, which is obviously quite a difference. Instead of a tie, Suffolk posts the division between the two candidates at 50-34 percent. The Suffolk results are closer to the three other polls released in January, making the ARG numbers, so far, the outlier.

Senate

Mississippi: Sen. Wicker’s Opponents — Candidate filing has closed in Mississippi and an official candidate list has been released. While Sen. Roger Wicker (R) is a prohibitive favorite over the lone Democrat who filed, 2023 secretary of state nominee Ty Pinkins who received 40.5 percent of the vote against incumbent Michael Watson (R) in the November election, the senator does have Republican primary opposition.

State Rep. Dan Eubanks (R-Walls) and retired Marine Corps Colonel T. Ghannon Burton are both qualified candidates. While it is doubtful that either can raise sufficient funds to run a major campaign against Sen. Wicker, who has been in the Senate since the last day of 2007 after being elected six times to the US House, all primary campaigns are worth watching. Mississippi has a runoff law, so Eubanks and Burton will attempt to keep the senator from receiving 50 percent of the vote in the March 12th primary election. Sen. Wicker remains a heavy favorite for renomination and re-election.

House

MS-4: Rep. Ezell’s Primary Challenge — In 2022, then-Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell was one of six Republicans who challenged six-term Congressman Steven Palazzo in the GOP primary. The group forced Palazzo into a runoff election, and Sheriff Ezell defeated him 54-46 percent. He then went on to record a landslide general election victory with 73 percent of the vote. Now, Rep. Ezell faces his own primary challenge.

With Mississippi candidate filing now closed, Rep. Ezell has drawn two Republican opponents, local businessman Carl Boyanton who ran in 2022 but received only six percent of the vote in the GOP primary election, and Army veteran Michael McGill. Rep. Ezell will be favored to win outright in the March 12 primary election, but this is another race to follow. A runoff will be held on April 2 should no candidate reach the 50 percent plateau. Rep. Ezell is favored for renomination and re-election in this southeastern Mississippi congressional district.

SC-3: Rep. Jeff Duncan (R) to Retire — Seven-term Palmetto State Republican Congressman Jeff Duncan (R-Laurens) is the latest House member to announce that he will not seek re-election. Duncan was hit with media reports back in September that he admits to having several extra-marital affairs all the while campaigning as a traditional values politician. It is probable the negative publicity influenced his decision to leave Congress.

Rep. Duncan’s western South Carolina 3rd District is safely Republican and has been so since the late Democratic US Rep. Butler Derrick left office at the beginning of 1995. Duncan now becomes the 45th House member not seeking re-election. Of the group, 23 seats are currently Democratic held while 21 come from the Republican column. One seat, the new 2nd District in Alabama, is created through the new court ordered redistricting map. It is likely we will see a similar situation develop in Louisiana when that new court-ordered map is drawn before the end of the month.

States

Arizona: No Labels Party Wins Federal Ruling — Rather surprisingly, a federal judge has ruled in Arizona that the No Labels Party can bar candidates from running on their party line for races other than president even though the entity is an official Arizona political party. Secretary of State Adrian Fontes (D) has pledged to appeal the ruling on behalf of the state. It seems difficult to imagine a similar ruling being rendered if the Republican or Democratic Parties were to make such a move.

Fontes, who said the ruling is “dead wrong,” argues that the “ … current decision will disenfranchise almost 19,000 registered Arizona voters, and if it stands, it could potentially derail the entire candidate nomination process,” according to an Associated Press story. If state candidates run under the No Labels party line, then the national party would have to disclose its donors under Arizona election law, something the national entity so far has been able to avoid. It remains to be seen if this ruling is allowed to stand.

Dem West Virginia Senate Candidate Emerges; Indiana Rep to Retire; Kentucky Candidate Filing Closes;
No Labels Party Qualifies in Maine

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024

Senate

Wheeling, WVa., Mayor Glenn Elliott (D)

West Virginia: Democratic Candidate Emerges — Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott (D), a former staff member for Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd (D-WV), announced that he will seek the Democratic nomination for the open seat that Sen. Joe Manchin (D) is vacating. Though a long shot to overtake favored Republican candidate Jim Justice, the state’s two-term governor, the Democrats now appear to have a credible candidate to fill the major void that Sen. Manchin leaves for his party. Also in the Republican Senate primary is US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town).

House

IN-8: Rep. Larry Bucshon (R) to Retire — Continuing the recent cascade of House retirements, seven-term Indiana Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Evansville) announced that he will not seek re-election later this year. Bucshon becomes the 43rd member leaving the House, and the 19th Republican. This is another seat that will be non-competitive in the general election, however.

The 8th District, formerly one of the most hotly contested seats in the country to the point it was nicknamed “the Bloody Eighth,” is no longer a domain that produces close general election results and a large number of incumbent defeats. In his seven successful elections, Rep. Bucshon averaged 61.7 percent of the vote and has broken the 60 percent threshold in his last five consecutive campaigns.

IN-8 occupies the southwest corner of Indiana, bordering Kentucky on the south and Illinois on the west. The two largest population centers are the cities of Evansville and Terre Haute. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates IN-8 as the second-safest Republican seat in the Hoosier State at R+36. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the 50th-safest seat in the Republican Conference.

With Reps. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) running for the Senate and Reps. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) and Bucshon retiring, one-third of Indiana’s nine congressional seats now stand in the open category. The candidate filing deadline is Feb. 9 for the associated May 7 Indiana primary election.

Kentucky: Candidate Filing Closes — One more state, Kentucky, has closed its candidate filing period for the 2024 primary election. With no Senate or governor’s race on the 2024 ballot, the presidential and congressional races will lead the ticket.

All six US House incumbents have political opponents, but Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison) and Hal Rogers (R-Somerset) drew no Democratic general election competition in Districts 4 and 5, respectively. Both have Republican primary opposition. It appears that all six incumbents, five Republicans and one Democrat, will have easy runs in the general election.

States

No Labels Party: Qualifies in Maine; Objecting in Arizona — The No Labels Party announced that they have qualified for a ballot line in Maine, to date increasing the number of states to 13 where they will have ballot presence for the 2024 election.

Conversely, they have also filed suit in Arizona trying to block candidates for offices other than president from using their ballot line. Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes (D) is treating No Labels as the state would any other political party. That is, a registered voter in that party can run for office. It is doubtful that No Labels will be granted a court ruling that allows the party leaders to bar a qualified individual from running under their ballot line.

The states where No Labels has qualified for ballot position are: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah. The party officials claim to have active ballot qualification petition drives underway in an additional 14 unidentified states.

Sen. Cassidy Considers No Labels Party; Newsom Clarifies Potential Appointment; Another Challenger to Sen. Cruz Emerges; NM-3, NY-4 News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 13, 2023

President

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)

No Labels Party: Sen. Cassidy Says He’ll Talk — From Sunday’s NBC interview, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) admitted that he would “talk” to the No Labels Party leaders if they approached him about becoming their presidential nominee. Sen. Cassidy also explained it would depend upon who the major parties nominate, but he intimated if we are going to see a Biden-Trump re-match he would be more inclined to run as a third-party candidate.

Sen. Cassidy is the type of candidate the No Labels Party would like to recruit. It is clear their main goal is to deny former President Donald Trump re-election, so they will be looking for a candidate who has some ability to attract suburban Republican voters away from Trump. The No Labels Party will decide who to nominate, if anyone, at their national conclave scheduled for April 14-15, 2024.

Senate

California: Gov. Newsom Clarifies Potential Appointment — Some Democrats are still urging Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), who is suffering from failing health, to resign her seat so that Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) can appoint a more able individual. Gov. Newsom now says that he will only appoint someone who will serve as a caretaker if the vacancy were to occur.

The governor said it would be unfair to give an advantage to any of the candidates currently running for the Senate if he were to appoint one of the contenders. Early rumors suggested he was leaning towards appointing US congresswoman and 2024 Senate candidate Barbara Lee (D-Oakland). She hails from Newsom’s northern California political base, but his latest statement suggests he would now go in a different direction.

Texas: Another Cruz Challenger Emerges — Back in May when Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) announced his Senate campaign it looked as if the Democratic leadership had the candidate they wanted to challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R). Two months later, state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio) announced his candidacy, and then resigned Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez followed. Another candidate has now joined them — Dallas state Rep. Carl Sherman Sr. (D), a former local mayor and pastor.

While Rep. Allred still may top what is now becoming a crowded field, he will undoubtedly be forced to drain his campaign treasury just to win the nomination; he had raised over $6 million before the June 30 campaign finance quarterly report. Sen. Cruz will then be able to build an uncontested campaign treasury, and force all four Democratic candidates far to the left on key issues such as the Biden energy policy and the Texas-Mexico border.

House

NM-3: Ex-State Rep to Challenge Rep. Leger Fernandez — Former state Rep. Sharon Clahchischilliage (R), a member of the Navajo Nation who served three terms in the legislature before being defeated for re-election in 2018, announced that she will challenge two-term Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-Santa Fe) next year. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates New Mexico’s 3rd District as D+5, meaning we could see a competitive general election develop. In 2022, Rep. Leger Fernandez was re-elected with 58 percent of the vote, but against a Republican candidate who spent only $301,000 on her campaign.

NY-4: Democrat Withdraws — Sarah Hughes (D), who was a member of the 2002 US Olympic figure skating team and had formed a congressional exploratory committee earlier in the year to challenge Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), announced Monday that she will not pursue her candidacy. The top Democrats appear to be state Sen. Kevin Thomas (D-Nassau) and ex-Hempstead town supervisor and 2022 nominee Laura Gillen (D). In the face of such competition, Hughes’ chances of winning the Democratic primary were poor; hence, the decision to end her political quest.

New York’s 4th District, at D+10 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, is likely to become the Democrats’ top conversion opportunity in the country.

Blake Masters to Run Again in Arizona Senate Race; New Candidate in NC-13 Race; Pfaff Passes in WI-3;
A Polling Tie in Mississippi Gov. Race

By Jim Ellis — Sept. 1, 2023

Senate

Blake Masters / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona: 2022 GOP Nominee Preparing ’24 Senate Run — Reports are surfacing from Arizona that 2022 Republican US Senate nominee Blake Masters, a venture capitalist who fell to Sen. Mark Kelly (D) by a 51-47 percent margin, will soon enter the current three-way Senate race. Independent incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) is expected to seek re-election possibly as the No Labels Party candidate, while Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is already becoming a likely consensus Democratic contender.

The Grand Canyon State contest will prove unpredictable because all three contenders, Sen. Sinema, Rep. Gallego, and the eventual Republican nominee, will have a pathway to victory.

Should Masters choose to enter the campaign, he will likely have Republican primary opposition. Kari Lake, the former news anchorwoman who received 49.6 percent of the gubernatorial vote in a losing effort against current incumbent Sen. Katie Hobbs (D), is also expected to become a Senate candidate. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is already in the race and has been campaigning for the party nomination over a period of months.

The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024, meaning this race will have a long development period.

House

NC-13: Republican State Rep Announces for Congress — State Rep. Erin Pare (R-Holly Springs), the only Republican to represent part of Wake County in the legislature, announced yesterday that she will seek the GOP congressional nomination with the goal of challenging 13th District freshman Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary). This will be an interesting race since the NC-13 seat is sure to change, and likely in a dramatic way. The legislature is scheduled soon to redraw the congressional map, and it is expected that the 13th will become much more Republican.

In 2022, Nickel defeated Republican Bo Hines, 52-48 percent, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated R+3. Dave’s Redistricting App saw a different picture, however. This group calculates the partisan lean at 49.5D – 48.1R. President Joe Biden carried the district with a slight 50.1 – 48.4 percent victory margin even though he lost the statewide count.

After the redraw we can expect this seat to lean decidedly Republican, thus making Rep. Nickel a highly vulnerable Republican target.

WI-3: 2022 Dem Nominee Bypasses Rematch Opportunity — State Sen. Brad Pfaff (D-La Crosse), who did surprising well in the 2022 WI-3 congressional race in losing to freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) 52-48 percent even though Democratic party leaders virtually conceded the open race, has made a decision about seeking a re-match. Since Sen. Pfaff’s four-year term in the legislature expires at the end of next year, he announced that he will seek re-election instead of embarking upon another congressional race.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the WI-3 district as R+9, and the Democratic presidential nominee lost here in both 2020 and 2016 by five percentage points, thus leading the national party leadership to spend outside resources in places they believed to be more competitive.

In the upcoming 2024 campaign, however, Democrats are likely to make a stronger run since Pfaff exceeded expectations in 2022, but now it will have to be with a new candidate.

Governor

Mississippi: Dem Poll Shows Tie — An Impact Research poll taken for Democrat Brandon Presley (D) in early August but just released Wednesday (Aug. 6-9; 600 likely Mississippi 2023 general election voters) produced interesting results in the Mississippi governor’s race. The ballot test finds Presley tied with Gov. Tate Reeves (R) at 46 percent, apiece. The pollsters note that Presley’s support has risen in all three of their previously conducted surveys, while Gov. Reeves has consistently dropped.

Similar polling trends were published in the 2019 governor’s race, and many believed that Reeves, then the state’s lieutenant governor, would lose to Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood. In the end, Reeves scored a 52-47 percent win, a much stronger performance for the Republican than most believed would occur. Expect the Reeves campaign to soon counter with their own polling data. This year’s general election is scheduled for Nov. 7.

No Labels Qualifies in 10 States

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 18, 2023

President

No Labels Party: Growing in Influence — The No Labels Party, under attack for not releasing their donors’ identities despite raising huge sums of money, has now qualified for the ballot in several more states.

The North Carolina Board of Elections, with four of the five members in favor of No Labels, certified them for a 2024 ballot position, becoming the tenth state to recognize the entity. North Carolina joins Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah as domains granting the minor party a ballot line.

Though the current aggregate number of qualified states represents only one fifth of the total number of states, No Labels can already have a major effect upon the presidential election outcome. Alaska, with their new Ranked Choice Voting system, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, are among the small group of swing states that will largely determine the next general election result.

While former President Donald Trump carried Alaska by double-digits in both of his elections, his percentage was only 52.8 percent in 2020 and 51.3 percent in 2016. In a state that already draws a large number of independent and minor party voters, seeing a No Labels candidate force Trump or another eventual Republican nominee below the 50 percent majority figure is a distinct possibility.

As we have seen in previous Ranked Choice Alaska elections, the Democratic candidate has a strong chance of winning in the extra rounds.

The Arizona election was decided by just 10,447 votes. Nevada came down to less than two-and-a-half percentage points, and North Carolina’s final 2020 presidential vote was decided by a margin of less than 1.5 percent.

Therefore, a prominent No Labels Party candidate could clearly tip the balance of power in these critical swing states from one candidate to the other, particularly with as high as 40 percent of the voting public identifying as Independent according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization’s research.

If No Labels decides to field a presidential candidate, and they will formally do so at their national party meeting in Dallas on April 14-15 next year, it is clear they will choose someone who is already well known. If they attempt to be a deciding factor, the No Labels effort stands to earn success. If they have the far-reaching goal of winning the presidential race, then this group is likely to go the way of most other small political entities that usually find themselves falling apart after a short shelf life, figuratively speaking.

There is a great deal of controversy over which of the two major candidates, assuming a Biden-Trump 2024 general election, a No Labels Party candidate would hurt the most. We are seeing in current polling that Dr. Cornel West, running on the Green Party ticket, draws about four percent vote preference, and that largely comes from President Joe Biden’s vote pool. It is doubtful that a No Labels Party candidate would garner votes in the same manner, however.

Many on the left believe such a presence on major general election ballots would hurt Biden much more than Trump. Such a theory suggests the number of detracted votes could be enough to either throw the election to the former president or send a disputed outcome where neither party candidate receives 270 electoral votes to the House of Representatives.

Looking at this bipartisan political entity’s Republican composition, it is difficult to see any Trump supporters within the group. For example, the national co-chairman, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), and one of their chief political strategists, longtime national Republican consultant Charlie Black, are closer to the Never Trump movement rather than the Trump coalition.

Therefore, to see a scenario where No Labels chooses a candidate who would take enough votes away from Biden to help Trump win the national election is unrealistic and a misinterpretation of the involved GOP personnel’s intentions.

It is far more likely that the No Labels entity will choose a candidate, if they field one at all, who takes Republican suburban votes away from Trump in places like Anchorage, Atlanta, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Raleigh. Therefore, their ultimate candidate selection is much more likely to help the current president rather than the former.

No Labels Party:
Qualifies in Two More States

No Labels Party website image

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 9, 2023

President

No Labels: Making Inroads — The No Labels Party, which is attempting to bring ideological moderates from the two major parties and the self-identified independent voter under one entity, has qualified for the ballot in two more states.

Nevada and South Dakota will now feature a No Labels Party ballot line, joining Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon. While the number of qualified states is small in relation to the whole country, three of these six states are key swing entities that could well affect the outcome of next year’s presidential campaign.

Let’s look at one particular poll that exemplifies how a minor candidate can influence a hotly contested election. A new Emerson College poll of the Michigan electorate (Aug. 1-2), for example, finds President Joe Biden leading former President Donald Trump by less than a percentage point. When Green Party candidate Cornel West’s name is added to the questionnaire, Trump takes a two point lead over Biden because West draws four percent support.

The Michigan example will be similar in the states where the presidential election is extremely close. In this case, Dr. West’s presence draws enough left-of-center Michigan voters away from President Biden that would allow former President Trump to take the lead. We would likely see a reversed outcome if the minor party candidate were prone to attract suburban Republican votes.

The No Labels Party is different than others we have seen over the years in that they are well financed and have a national organization. Therefore, the ability to qualify for the ballot in a maximum number of states is greater than any other minor party — including the Green Party — of which Dr. West will be the likely nominee.

Looking at the composition of the No Labels Republican leadership — should they file a presidential candidate (the leaders have not yet committed to doing so) it will be someone more likely to take votes away from Trump rather than Biden. Therefore, when the party leaders and activists from around the country meet in Dallas on April 14-15, it is probable they will choose a disaffected Republican for the presidential slot and a disaffected Democrat as the running mate … if they even decide to file a national candidate slate.

The organization’s co-chairmen, former US senator and 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Lieberman and ex-Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), have said on multiple occasions that they want a ticket comprised of a member from each major party, but again without firmly committing to fielding a presidential ticket.

Turning to the No Labels qualified states, Arizona and Nevada are two of the five entities where flipping from Biden in 2020 to the Republican nominee in 2024 could change the national outcome.

A surprising state that could be in play next year is Alaska. The Last Frontier state changed its election system in the last election and added a Ranked Choice Voting system should no candidate secure majority support.

The addition of a No Labels candidate could make the above scenario real. In the 2020 Alaska special congressional election, Republican candidates cumulatively drew 60 percent of the vote; yet, when RCV went into effect because no one reached 50 percent, a Democratic candidate won the election. Therefore, Alaska should be added to the watch list of swing states that could move toward the Democrats.

Pennsylvania and North Carolina are two of the larger states in the swing category. Pennsylvania went Democratic in 2020, while North Carolina backed the Republican nominee. Both states require a defined number of valid registered voter petition signatures for a candidate under a different party banner to earn a ballot position.

Wisconsin, another state that swung the Democrats’ way but which could certainly rebound in 2024, employs the same requirements for minor party candidates as they do for Republicans and Democrats. Therefore, No Labels would have a strong chance of qualifying in this important swing domain as well.

Should key minor party candidates qualify in each of these aforementioned states – how each break will be critical in determining the 2024 presidential winner – the number of votes they attract, and from which candidate they draw, will be a major factor in how the election turns not only in these particular states but in the nation as a whole.

Pence to Announce Presidential Campaign Today; Sununu Stays Out of Presidential Race; Manchin Running on No Labels Unlikely; Arizona Sen. Kelly Endorses Teran

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 7, 2023

President

Former Vice President Mike Pence (R)

Mike Pence: Files Presidential Campaign Committee — Mike Pence (R), former vice president, Indiana governor, and US congressman, filed his long-awaited presidential campaign committee Monday with the Federal Election Commission and officially announced his campaign today, in Iowa, on his 64th birthday. Though it is difficult to see a path to victory for him with former President Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis dominating most of the early action, Pence will likely be part of the debates and has performed very well on stage when previously tested.

Also expected to announce their own campaigns for the Republican presidential nomination this week are former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

Gov. Chris Sununu: Won’t Run for President — New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R), saying he understands that a crowded Republican presidential field will renominate former President Donald Trump with 35 percent of the vote, announced Monday in an op-ed column that he will not enter the GOP presidential nomination contest.

Sununu said he believes he can best influence the Republican presidential campaign from the outside in his current position as governor of one of the key early primary states. He made it clear his mission is to deny former President Trump renomination and called on other candidates with no clear path to the nomination to also leave the race.

The governor did not indicate whether he would consider a third-party run for president, or if he will seek a fifth term as governor next year.

No Labels Party: Sen. Joe Manchin Again Sending Signals — In an interview with Shannon Bream on Fox News Sunday, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) was once again sending signals that he might be open to a third-party run for president on the No Labels Party ticket. Such an option probably isn’t viable, however.

During the interview, Sen. Manchin said, “If Plan A shows that we’re going to the far reaches of both sides, the far left and the far right, and the people don’t want to go to the far left and the far right, they want to be governed from the middle.” He further stated in response to Bream asking if he would run as a third-party candidate, that he is “not ruling anything in, not ruling anything out.”

Regardless of what Sen. Manchin may want to do, it is unlikely he will become the No Labels Party presidential nominee. The NLP won’t meet until April 14-15 to choose a candidate, and candidate filing in West Virginia ends in late January. Therefore, Sen. Manchin will need to make a decision about his future prior to New Labels choosing any potential presidential candidate.

House

AZ-3: Sen. Kelly Chooses Candidate — Over the weekend Sen. Mark Kelly (D) indicated that his preferred candidate to replace Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), who is running against Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), is former state Senate Minority Leader and ex-Arizona Democratic Party chair Raquel Teran. Four other Democrats are in the race, including Phoenix City Councilwoman Laura Pastor, daughter of former US Rep. Ed Pastor (D), but his relationship with Teran while she guided the Arizona party during his 2022 run for Senate makes her his candidate of choice.

The Phoenix anchored 3rd District is heavily Democratic with a D+44 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. Therefore, Rep. Gallego’s successor will be decided in the Aug. 6, 2024, Democratic primary, thus making Sen. Kelly’s endorsement valuable.

Christie Making Moves; Davidson Declines to Run in Ohio; Manchin Behind in New WVa Poll; Utah’s Rep. Stewart to Resign

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 1, 2023

President

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R)

Chris Christie: Ex-New Jersey Gov Making Moves to Enter Presidential Race — Published reports are indicating that allies of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) are forming a Super PAC to aid his budding presidential efforts. After the PAC is formed, it is believed Christie will enter the race within the next two weeks, thus bringing the Republican field to at least seven candidates with another four likely to step forward.

Polling suggests, however, that regardless of the number of entries, only two, former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, consistently break into double digits. It is also clear, just as it was in 2016, that the large field helps Trump since he has the strongest base within the Republican primary voter universe.

Senate

Ohio: Rep. Davidson Won’t Run for Senate — Citing the closeness of the House Republican majority through the next election, Ohio Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Troy) announced that he will not join the US Senate race to oppose incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) but will seek re-election to his 8th District House seat. Davidson was first elected in a 2016 special election to replace former House Speaker John Boehner (R).

Though it appeared that Rep. Davidson was preparing to enter the race, he said his decision not to do so was based upon the amount of time that a statewide campaign would take away from his House duties. In the Senate race are state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), a 2022 Senate candidate who is a minority owner of the Cleveland Guardians Major League Baseball Club, and businessman Bernie Moreno, who Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance endorsed last week. Expected to join the campaign next month is GOP Secretary of State Frank LaRose. The Ohio Senate race promises to be one of the most competitive in the nation.

West Virginia: New Poll: Manchin Way Behind — East Carolina University released the results of their new West Virginia political poll (May 22-23; 957 registered West Virginia voters; live interview; interactive voice response system; online) and the ballot test results post Gov. Jim Justice to a major 54-32 percent lead over Sen. Joe Manchin (D). If Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) were to win the Republican nomination, he would fall into a toss-up battle with Sen. Manchin, leading 42-41 percent according to this survey.

If these polling results continue, Sen. Manchin may find that running for the office of president on the No Labels Party ticket may be his best political option.

House

UT-2: Rep. Chris Stewart Prepares to Resign — Six-term Utah US Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington), who at one time was thought to be interested in launching a gubernatorial or US Senate campaign, is reportedly preparing to resign from the House possibly by the end of this week. Stewart’s wife’s ongoing health situation is the reason he will be leaving his position.

Gov. Spencer Cox (R) will set the special primary and general election calendar within seven days of Rep. Stewart officially resigning. The 2nd District political parties will first meet in a special district convention to select a candidate. The individual candidate eventually receiving majority support from the voting delegates will advance into the primary.

Other candidates may petition onto the ballot. A general election will then follow. It is probable the special general will be held Nov. 7, 2023, concurrently with municipal elections in the state.