Tag Archives: Ralph Northam

Former NASCAR Driver Declares in Maine; Ohio Redistricting Lines Stand; New Candidates in CO-8 & VA-2

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 11, 2023

House

Austin Theriault (R), retired NASCAR driver

ME-2: Former NASCAR Driver Declares for Congress — Austin Theriault (R), a retired NASCAR driver who is now a state representative from one of the Canadian border districts in northern Maine, is reportedly planning to challenge Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) in the most Republican district that elects a Democrat to the House. Rep. Golden has twice defeated now-former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) with the help of the Ranked Choice Voting system, which eliminates the possibility of a plurality victory.

Without Poliquin making a return appearance, Republicans need a fresh candidate to potentially take advantage of what could be a more favorable GOP turnout model. Former President Donald Trump has twice carried the 2nd District, in 2020 by six percentage points, so running with him in 2024 is more attractive than in other election years.

Ohio Redistricting: Lines Will Stand for 2024 — The Ohio State Supreme Court late this week rejected plaintiffs’ arguments that a new congressional map should be drawn, meaning the current lines will remain intact for the 2024 election. Under the original redistricting act’s passage, the map was to be reconfigured after four years, meaning before the 2026 election. That remains to be the case. In the meantime, activists are attempting to qualify a ballot initiative that would transform the Ohio redistricting system into a citizens’ commission. The initiative organizers need 413,000 valid Ohio registered voter signatures to qualify their measure for a vote in the 2024 election.

CO-8: GOP State Rep Announces Candidacy — State Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Westminster), an Army veteran and ex-police officer, has entered the 8th District Republican congressional primary with the quest of challenging freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) who represents one of the most politically marginal districts in the country. The 8th District was awarded to Colorado in the 2020 national apportionment formula due to extensive population growth.

The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission crafted the seat, just north of Denver, as one that either party can win in any election year. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+3, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a partisan lean that slightly favors the Democrats, 48.3D – 47.0R. President Joe Biden carried the district, 50.8 – 46.3 percent.

Rep. Evans, should he win the primary, will be a strong candidate for the Republicans. State Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County), who held Rep. Caraveo to a 48.4 – 47.7 percent tight victory, is not seeking a re-match. Instead, she is running for re-election to her current position in the state Senate. Weld County Commissioner Scott James will be opposing Evans for the Republican nomination.

VA-2: Democrats Recruit Challenger Candidate — In further evidence that defeated Rep. Elaine Luria (D) will not seek a re-match with freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach), Democrats have found a new candidate in the person of Missy Cotter Smasal, a Navy veteran and former state Senate candidate. At this point, she is the only announced Democratic contender and has support from former Gov. Ralph Northam (D) and newly elected US Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond).

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the Virginia Beach anchored 2nd District as R+6. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 50.1R – 48.3D.

WI-3: Former Local Board Chairman Enters Cong Race — Former La Crosse County Board chair Tara Johnson, who served 20 years on the local panel, announced that she is joining the Democratic primary in hope of challenging freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) in next year’s general election.

The race is getting more attention from Democrats who believe southern Wisconsin will be redrawn with their presumption that the new state Supreme Court Democratic majority will find a way to toss the current map. Johnson joins business owner and 2022 congressional candidate Rebecca Cooke in the Democratic primary. The seat appears relatively safe for Rep. Van Orden in its current configuration, but a redraw could drastically change the situation.

Virginia Primary Today

By Jim Ellis

June 13, 2017 — The Virginia governor’s campaign is becoming a national race in relation to prognosticating political trends, and we will be able to glean some partial answers this evening.

Initially, the eventual Virginia general election winner earns the redistricting veto pen for the 2021 redraw, and becomes the first newly elected governor to have such authority. All other states where redistricting is handled through the normal legislative process will elect their commensurate governors in 2018, 2019, and/or 2020.

Second, the Commonwealth’s Democratic primary race has evolved into an early microcosm of what Democrats may be experiencing throughout the country this year and next, and quite possibly beyond.

The split between the party’s more extreme Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren faction and the traditional liberal Hillary Clinton segment is portrayed in the Tom Perriello/Ralph Northam gubernatorial primary. Though former US Rep. Perriello is wrapping himself in the Sanders/Warren mantra, going so far as having them star in his ads along with film clips of President Obama extolling his virtue when he was a member of the House, Perriello’s initiative has driven Lt. Gov. Northam to adopt more leftward ideological positions, as well.

Continue reading →

The California Political Grapevine; A 10-Vote Election in Virginia

Political rumors are abounding in California’s Inland Empire. It is unusual, to say the least, when a member of Congress eschews another term in the US House for a run for a county office, but that is apparently what freshman Rep. Gloria Negrete McLeod (D-CA-35) is contemplating.

Yesterday, San Bernardino County Supervisor Gary Ovitt announced that he would not seek a third term on the Board, and speculation is rampant that Rep. McLeod will soon enter the open seat local race. The fact that she has already filed a county campaign account possessing $900,000 is the key point in favor of her running. In addition to the congresswoman, term-limited state Assemblyman Curt Hagman (R) has expressed his desire for the seat.

This highly atypical move will affect more than just McLeod’s current 35th Congressional District. The man she Continue reading >

Election Night Analysis

Election Night 2013 may have turned out somewhat differently than political polling projected in terms of margin, but the actual voting yielded few surprise winners.

New Jersey

In New Jersey, as expected, Gov. Chris Christie (R) romped to a second term, defeating state Sen. Barbara Buono (D) 60-38 percent. The only question would be whether the governor could bring new Republican state legislators with him, but the legislative chambers remained virtually intact. The initial unofficial count shows the GOP gaining one state Senate seat and two Assembly positions, but strong Democratic majorities remain in both bodies.

Virginia

In Virginia, though polls were suggesting a Terry McAuliffe win of greater than five points over Ken Cuccinelli – the final Washington Post poll projected a 12-point gap, for example – the actual Democratic margin of victory was only three points, Continue reading >

Is this the Death Knell for Cuccinelli We’re Hearing?

The Washington Post’s latest survey portends good news for Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe and the rest of his ticket, and signals what could be the figurative death knell for Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the state’s gubernatorial contest. All of the various pollsters who have been studying the Virginia governor’s race will be releasing their final numbers in the next few days, meaning we will be exposed to a continual stream of Virginia political data.

According to the Post figures (Oct. 24-27; 1,061 registered Virgnia voters; 762 likely Virginia voters) McAuliffe leads Cuccinelli 51-39 percent, which is the largest Democratic lead recorded in any Virginia poll to date. Dozens of surveys have been conducted in the past eight weeks, reporting remarkably consistent results, with all of them posting McAuliffe to leads but within a five- to eight-point range.

The Post results are both believable and unsurprising. McAuliffe has overwhelmed Cuccinelli with late campaign advertising and continues to feature prominent Republicans around the state who have endorsed him over their own nominee. This has helped achieve McAuliffe’s goal of splitting the Republican base wide open, and thus exacerbate the rift between the Virginia conservative and moderate base Republicans.

According to the Post, the Cuccinelli collapse is likewise beginning to affect the rest of the ticket; in the lieutenant governor’s race, their data shows state Sen. Ralph Northam (D-Norfolk/Virginia Beach) running ahead of Republican nominee E.W. Jackson by a 52-39 percent margin. In the attorney general’s race between two sitting state senators, in which Republican nominee Mark Obenshain (R-Harrisonburg) has led Mark Herring (D-Loudon County) by small margins for weeks, the Post forecasts a change here, too. The poll yields Herring a slight 49-46 percent advantage.

The Washington Post survey also underscores that McAuliffe’s success in this race is less due to voters’ positive feelings about him than their negative views toward Cuccinelli. Asking people who earlier said they intend to vote for McAuliffe: “is your vote more for McAuliffe or more against Cuccinelli”, only 34 percent of the McAuliffe Continue reading >