Category Archives: House

Census Preview: California Could Lose Four Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 18, 2024

Redistricting

California Congressional Districts (click on image
for larger view)

Though it is early in the current decade, The American Redistricting Project organization released their latest projections about the 2030 national reapportionment, and the most notable prediction is that California could lose four of their current 52 congressional seats.

Such a downturn would be extraordinary for a state that in the 1980 census gained seven new seats. To put their 1980 number in perspective, the 2020 census yielded seven total seats that switched states.

In 1930, Congress put a cap on the number of US House seats at 435, a figure that is still in existence today. Prior to that time, when states gained in population and were entitled to increased representation, seats were simply added to the chamber and no state lost districts. After 1930, when additional congressional seats were awarded, other states had to lose.

According to the ARP’s early 2030 projections, a total of 13 districts — if the present trends continue throughout the rest of the decade — would change states, almost double the number that switched domains in the current reapportionment.

The projected big gainers are Texas (+4) and Florida (+3). Florida is also thought to be on the bubble for an additional fourth seat. The other one-seat gainers would be Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Utah.

Idaho and Tennessee would be new entries as gainers since the others have added seats in the most recent preceding decades. Idaho was the fastest growing state in the country during the last decade, at a rate of 21 percent, but did not increase their representation. Under the apportionment formula, it is difficult for the small states to gain and lose seats, while the big states can more easily gain, but also lose, districts.

The states projected to lose seats, in addition to California, would be New York (3) and Illinois (2) with the following losing one seat apiece: Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

Oregon would be the most interesting state in this group. In the current 2020 census, the state gained a sixth congressional district. According to the ARP projections, they would lose their new seat in 2030 and return to a five-district contingent.

The addition of Minnesota and Rhode Island on the losing state list is not particularly surprising. Both were on the cusp of losing their eighth and second seats, respectively, in the 2020 census but the reapportionment formula barely spared the pair.

Since 1930, Pennsylvania has been the state that has lost the highest number of seats. Should they lose another in 2030, their delegation will drop to 16. In 1930, the Pennsylvania delegation had 36 members.

Two not on the losing list, reversing the trend from multiple decades, are Michigan and Ohio, though the 13th Michigan seat appears on the cusp of being eliminated.

At this point, states on the cusp of losing seats (but in this count would not) in addition to Michigan, are Louisiana and Wisconsin. States that just miss gaining are Florida, which would mean an addition of four instead of three, and South Carolina, possibly gaining one, while New York would potentially avoid losing a third seat.

The reapportionment would also affect the Electoral College, as it did in the current census. Because of reapportionment, the Republicans, in this case former President Donald Trump, gained a net three electoral votes because of congressional seats changing states. These three votes, in such a close election, could prove determinative since the victory projections for either presidential candidate are very tight.

If the 2030 projections are correct, the 13 seats switching states, under current voting trends, would net the Republicans approximately 11 electoral votes, which would be a massive boost to their prospects of electing future presidents.

The 2030 census is still well into the future, and these projections often change as actual trends begin to form. What the projections do tell us is the changing population patterns begun in the previous decade have accelerated in the current period.

Catholic Voter Survey Results Show Trump Ahead; Michigan Senate Race Heats Up; Rep. Bishop in Tight Georgia Race; Conflicting CA-49 Data

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump holds a large swing state lead according to a Catholic voter survey.

Catholic Voter Survey: Voters Leaning Toward Trump — The National Catholic Reporter commissioned a voter survey in seven swing states, and particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin, former President Donald Trump has opened a large lead: a dozen points in Michigan and 18 in Wisconsin.

Looking at the seven states as a whole, Trump holds a 50-45 percent advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris within the Catholic sample. The survey was conducted by Mercury Analytics (Oct. 3-8; 1,172 Catholic voters in AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA and WI; online). Harris, however, does well with black (77 percent support) and Hispanic (67 percent support) Catholics within this sampling universe. Trump dominates among white voters with a 16 percent advantage.

Interestingly, the NCR analysis indicated that the Catholic respondents, “were more likely to say they support their preferred candidate for reasons that go against [Catholic] church teaching, with Trump supporters favoring his anti-[illegal] immigration policies and Harris voters backing her views on reproductive rights.”

In the swing states, the largest Catholic percentage of the state population is in Wisconsin (25 percent) and Nevada (25 percent), with Pennsylvania closely following (24 percent). Arizona (21 percent) and Michigan (18 percent) are next, while Georgia (nine percent) and North Carolina (nine percent) lag behind.

Senate

Michigan: Republicans Up Investment — The Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) firms partnered on a Michigan voter poll for AARP (Oct. 2-8; 600 likely Michigan voters from a universe of 1,382 registered Michigan voters; live interview and text) and the results project that Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) holds a 49-46 percent edge over former Rep. Mike Rogers (R). The presidential vote, as a point of reference, was tied a 46 percent apiece between Harris and Trump.

The results of this and other similar polls were enough to convince the Senate Leadership Fund to spend an additional $10.5 million in media time. The new expenditure brings the SLF entire investment to $33 million. It appears the three Senate races in which Republicans see recent positive movement are Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

House

GA-2: Rep. Bishop (D) in Surprising Close Race — Georgia Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) was first elected to Congress in 1992 and has rarely had a close election. A newly released survey from the co/efficient polling firm (Oct. 3-4; 847 likely GA-2 voters; live interview & text) for Republican nominee Wayne Johnson finds the challenger trailing Rep. Bishop by just three percentage points, 45-42 percent. This is a race that had not been considered competitive and has drawn little in the way of national attention.

Georgia’s 2nd District carries a partisan rating of D+4, according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Down Ballot political blog ranks GA-2 as the 36th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Though the seat had not been considered in play, it will now be watched for further developments. Whether outside groups from either side begin spending late money here is a point to be observed.

CA-49: Conflicting Data — As recently as last week, a Survey USA poll of California’s coastal 49th District (Oct. 2-6; 617 likely CA-49 voters) found that three-term Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) was comfortably ahead of Republican Matt Gunderson by a 12-point margin, 53-41 percent. Now, the National Republican Congressional Committee has countered with their 1892 organization survey that produces a much different result.

According to the 1892 data (Oct. 5-8; 400 likely CA-49 voters), the gap separating the two candidates is only one point, 46-45 percent, in Rep. Levin’s favor. The nature of this district suggests a close Democratic edge (FiveThirtyEight: D+5), so chances are that the wide range of these two polls likely lands in the middle. Therefore, Rep. Levin must still be viewed as residing in the favorite’s position.

Two Hidden Races

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024

House

A pair of campaigns to win a US House seat that have not attracted much political attention could come into play according to the most recent information; they are in Nevada and Texas.

Nationally, it appears the House majority could come down to one or two seats, so every race becomes important. Therefore, even contests that were expected to be non-competitive could be the campaigns that tip the majority to one party or the other.

Two such matches are coming to the forefront in Nevada and Texas. Both contests are in districts rated heavily for the incumbent party, but showing potential flip signs. With the majority margins so close, every campaign’s importance factor increases.

Nevada Rep. Mark Amodei

Similar to Sen. Deb Fischer’s Nebraska re-election situation, Nevada Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) faces a strong Independent opponent and no Democrat. Greg Kidd is a registered Republican who qualified by petition signature to run in this expansive northern Nevada congressional race as an Independent. Kidd is a venture capitalist and former analyst for the Federal Reserve and has committed $3 million of his own money to his campaign.

There has been no recent polling released for this race, so it is difficult to tell if the ballot test is close. An expenditure the size of what Kidd is capable of making, however, can certainly move numbers, but Rep. Amodei has so far been virtually inactive on the airwaves. Considering Kidd’s personal financial resources and commitment to self-financing his political effort to a major degree, expect Rep. Amodei to immediately increase his campaign presence.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NV-2 as R+13, and the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 53.8R – 40.5D partisan lean. The Down Ballot data organization ranks NV-2 as the 59th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

While the data suggests the 2nd is a safe Republican seat, the metrics are measured from a Democratic vs. Republican perspective. In this case we see a strong Independent candidate who is a registered Republican but campaigning on abortion rights and pro-prosperity economics. This could well change the paradigm here and make this a more competitive race than the traditional predictive data would suggest.

Mayra Flores

In south Texas, we see a rematch from the 2022 campaign where Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) and then-Rep. Mayra Flores (R-McAllen) squared off in an incumbent vs. incumbent post-redistricting pairing.

Flores had won a special election in June of 2022 in the 2011 version of CD 34, which stretched along the Gulf of Mexico from Brownsville in the district’s southernmost point then to the north around the Corpus Christi area, and all the way to the outer Austin suburbs. That version of District 34 was rated D+5 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization.

The 2022 34th District is much different, as it starts just south of Corpus Christi, and stretches to Brownsville, and then west along the Mexican border into the city of McAllen. The new version carries a D+17 rating and is obviously skews much more Democrat than the configuration that elected Flores. Yet, we see new competitive signs.

Despite her losing in 2022 by a 53-44 percent count, a new poll from the 1892 firm for the National Republican Congressional Committee (Sept. 28-Oct. 1; 400 likely TX-34 voters; live interview) finds Flores trailing Rep. Gonzalez by just a 49-46 percent margin. This is largely an under-the-radar race that has drawn little national attention but may be moving up the conversion priority chart.

The poll is another indication that the Republicans are doing better with the Hispanic population. This district is 88 percent Hispanic, and former President Donald Trump, in this same 1892 study, leads Vice President Kamala Harris 49-47 percent despite the seat being drawn to elect a Democrat.

Both NV-2 and TX-34 should receive renewed national interest. Watch for other seemingly safe districts for one party or the other similarly come into play.

Fischer in Trouble in Nebraska;
Tight CA-16 Double-Dem Election; Congressional Leadership Fund Ponies Up; DA Gascon Headed for Defeat in Los Angeles

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 11, 2024

Senate

Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R)

Nebraska: Ricketts Family to the Rescue — With the new Impact Research poll (Oct. 1-3; 600 likely Nebraska voters; multiple sampling techniques) being released and showing the same pattern we’ve seen in other recent surveys again suggests that Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is inexplicably in political trouble. Whereas the same poll finds former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris 58-38 percent, Independent Dan Osborn continues to forge small leads. Here, he leads Sen. Fischer 48-46 percent.

Entering the race to help boost the senator’s prospects is the ESAFund Super PAC, formerly known as the Ending Spending Action Fund. The organization announced it is laying down $2 million for further advertising in the Nebraska Senate race, likely in the form of ads to negatively define Osborn. Sen. Pete Ricketts’ (R) family were the principal funders of the organization, so it would make sense that they would come to Sen. Fischer’s aid.

House

CA-16: Double-Dem General Election Going to the Wire — An EMC Research poll for a Super PAC that supports state Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) for an open congressional seat shows a very close race between him and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D). The survey, however, is a month old, which makes the result much less credible. The poll’s ballot test (for Equality California; Sept. 5-10; 600 likely CA-16 voters; live interview, text & email) posted Liccardo to a 48-45 percent lead.

Releasing the survey after so much time had elapsed suggests the Low supporters are possibly finding that momentum is turning Liccardo’s way. Therefore, promoting the dated poll may be serving as a way to artificially boost Low and disguise what is likely a much bigger Liccardo advantage.

This is one of three congressional double Democratic general elections that California’s jungle primary system produced in the early March qualifying election. Incumbent Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring after what will be 16 terms of service in the House plus 10 years on the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors.

Congressional Leadership Fund: Invests $5 Million of New Money — The Congressional Leadership Fund, a major Super PAC that has a close association with the House Republican leadership, just announced additional media buys totaling $5 million for six different campaigns according to The Down Ballot political blog.

The new CLF race is that of Wisconsin freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) who has been under heavy attack from outside groups including the Vote Vets organization. Rep. Van Orden, who converted a western Wisconsin seat in 2022 that Democrat Ron Kind had represented for 26 consecutive years, is working to repel a challenge from businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D).

Other incumbent races slated for an influx of support are those of Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) and Marc Molinaro (R-NY). Also receiving additional aid are the challenger efforts of state Reps. Gabe Evans (CO-8 vs. Rep. Yadira Caraveo) and Austin Theriault (ME-2 vs. Rep. Jared Golden), and former US Rep. Yvette Herrell (NM-2 vs. Rep. Gabe Vasquez).

Cities

Los Angeles County: DA Gascon Headed for Defeat: The campaign of first-term Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascon (D), who has become the face of controversial prosecution and bail policies, is in serious trouble. A new University of California at Berkeley’s Institute for Government Studies poll (for the Los Angeles Times; Sept. 25-Oct. 1; 908 likely LA County voters; online) finds Independent challenger Nathan Hochman crushing Gascon by 30 percentage points, 51-21 percent.

In the March primary, Gascon placed first in a field of 12 candidates, but could only manage 25 percent of the vote. Such a low percentage for an incumbent is an ominous sign for the general election, and this latest survey certainly confirms such a pattern. Before moving to Los Angeles and entering the DA race in 2020, Gascon served for eight years as the San Francisco County District Attorney.

Conflicting Michigan Senate Polls; Fischer Drops in Nebraska Senate Poll; A Dead Heat in CO-8; Governor’s Race Neck-and-Neck in NH

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 7, 2024

Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing)

Michigan: Conflicting Poll Results — Two polling firms reported results late last week from their latest polls of the Michigan electorate. The surveys were conducted during the same time interval but arrived at distinctly different conclusions. The Mitchell Research & Communications firm, polling for the Michigan Information & Research Service (Sept. 30; 709 likely Michigan voters), sees Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) leading former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) with a five-point cushion, 49-44 percent. Simultaneously, the Trafalgar Group was also in the field (Sept. 28-30; 1,086 likely Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) but sees the two candidates tied at 47 percent apiece.

This is a good example how competing sampling and data weighting methodologies can produce significantly different results even when simultaneously testing the same campaign. Both Mitchell and Trafalgar have significant experience polling the Michigan electorate, so we will have to wait until election day to see which system had the more accurate data.

Nebraska: Fischer Drops Behind — We see yet another poll that finds Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in political trouble opposite Independent Dan Osborn, who now has united support from the Nebraska Democrat establishment. The new Bullfinch Group poll (for the Independent Center; Sept. 27-Oct. 1; 400 likely Nebraska voters; live interview) is the fifth consecutive publicly released survey that finds the race falling within the margin of error.

The Bullfinch poll is the second to project a lead for Osborn, 47-42 percent in this case. The 400-size sample is small for a three-congressional district state, so the error factor is high. Regardless of such, the data is consistently showing that the Nebraska race, even with no Democratic candidate, is surprisingly close.

House

CO-8: Dead Heat Poll Result — The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission in 2021 drew the state’s newly awarded 8th Congressional District, a seat that lies north and northeast of Denver and includes some of the city’s bedroom communities, as a political toss-up. The latest US House survey suggests that the electorate is performing as intended.

Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper and two Denver television stations (Sept. 29-Oct. 1; 525 likely CO-8 voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) and state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) falling into a flat tie, 44-44 percent.

In 2022, Caraveo won the seat in a plurality victory of less than one percentage point, but President Joe Biden carried the domain in 2020 with a 4.6 percent margin. It appears certain that we will see another photo finish in the current election.

Governor

New Hampshire: Ayotte Leads Again — After the most recent public poll, a mid-September release from the University of New Hampshire, found Democratic former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig leading ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) by one percentage point, the survey result released late last week finds Ayotte re-taking the polling lead.

The new St. Anselm College poll (Oct. 1-2; 2,104 likely New Hampshire voters; online) projects a three-point lead for Ayotte, 47-44 percent, in the nation’s only seriously competitive governor’s campaign. Regardless of who is leading in which poll, both data points suggest a very close race and a result within the polling margin of error. Therefore, the most reasonable current conclusion is that both candidates have a chance to win this political contest.

A negative point for Ayotte, however, is that former President Donald Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by seven points in this same survey. Therefore, the top of the ticket result, which largely defines the turnout model, will probably favor the Democrats even with the partisan registration figures now slightly favoring Republicans.

Challenging the US House
Real Clear Politics Ratings

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024

Polling

In a review of the national US House picture, we looked at various published race ratings. Those from Real Clear Politics are, to a degree, eyebrow raising.

The current RCP House rankings place 77 campaigns in the typical Likely Democrat, Lean Democrat, Toss-Up, Lean Republican, Likely Republican categories. An issue can be taken with 20 of the ratings, which seem to be mis-categorized based upon available recent polling data, resource imbalance, and historical voter performance.

Looking back at the 2022 RCP ratings just before the election finds that the Toss-Up and Lean Republican categories were particularly inaccurate. Just before people voted in ’22, RCP rated 34 campaigns as Toss-Ups. The end results found that Democrats won 28 of those contests versus only six for Republicans. This suggests that such a lopsided result means the category was somewhat miscast. Otherwise, the end result would have featured a more balanced partisan divide.

The Lean Republican category was a bad miss. According to the RCP ratings, 29 campaigns in the previous election cycle were housed in the column. Yet, Democrats won a majority of those contests, 15-14. This suggests that many of these races should have been labeled Toss-Ups, or even Lean Democrat.

In the current RCP ratings, 32 campaigns are rated as Toss-Ups. There is perhaps a better categorization for eight of the campaigns.

• Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-IN) defeated a stronger 2022 challenger, retired Air Force helicopter pilot Jennifer-Ruth Green (R), by a 53-47 percent margin in one of two Indiana districts drawn to favor a Democrat. Such a history suggests the 2024 contest should be considered Lean Democrat.

• Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) has won two consecutive highly competitive campaigns with margins well-short of going into political overtime. This, and against a new opponent, suggests that her race should also be moved from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat.

• Though Rep. Don Davis’ (D-NC) CD is more competitive than the district to which he was initially elected in 2022, the Tar Heel State’s 1st Congressional seat is still held by a Democrat. Additionally, with a 40 percent black population, a total minority percentage that exceeds 49 percent, and reliable regional vote history, means this race should reside in the Lean Democrat category as opposed to an outright Toss-Up.

• Though New Hampshire’s 1st District has routinely defeated many past incumbents, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has won three consecutive elections. With such a short general election cycle from the Sept. 10 primary and being clear that Rep. Pappas has repeatedly defied the district’s partisan lean, it is reasonable to believe that he will do so again. This suggests the seat is no longer a Toss-Up seeing Rep. Pappas as his party’s nominee.

• Ohio Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) has a huge financial advantage over her opponent, GOP former state legislator Kevin Coughlin. The district statistically slightly leans Democrat, and considering this, Rep. Sykes’ incumbency, and her resource advantage provides the necessary evidence for a Lean Democrat rating.

• The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates Texas’ 34th District as D+17. This, plus the fact that Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores (R) with a substantial 53-44 percent margin in 2022, suggests that this campaign could even be considered Likely Democrat.

• Virginia’s open 10th District is not close to a Toss-Up. Everything here favors the Democrat nominee, state Del. Suhas Subramanyam (D-Fairfax), so consider this race Likely Democrat.

• Washington Rep. Kim Schrier (D-Sammamish) has won three close elections in a district that used to be Republican. The state’s jungle primary has always been a good indicator as to what happens in the general election, and this year’s primary performance was Rep. Schrier’s strongest. While the possibility of an upset exists, the race should now be rated as another Lean Democrat contest.

Several other ratings also seem in need of adjustment. Based upon the post-primary polling, the at-large Alaska race featuring Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) and Republican Nick Begich III, should move from the Lean Democrat to the Toss-Up category.

Florida Reps. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) and Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee) should move from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. The same for the three Las Vegas Democrats, Reps. Dina Titus, Susie Lee, and Steven Hosford. Except for the Hosford race, the Republican candidates in these contests have badly under-performed.

Conversely, based upon polling, the AL-2 open campaign featuring Democrat Shomari Figures and Republican Caroleen Dobson should move from Likely to Lean Democrat. The Rep. Pat Ryan (D-Gardiner) tight Upstate New York seat should go to Lean Democrat from the Likely Dem category.

On the Republican side, Rep. David Valadao’s (R-Hanford) re-match battle in California should move into the Toss-Up category as his D+10 district is always very tight, and former Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D) is a strong opponent.

The two Iowa seats of Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) and Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) should also move into the Toss-Up category based upon the most recent dead heat polls and the former member’s tepid 2024 primary performance.

Finally, Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT), who scored an unimpressive 2022 win in the new western Montana seat, should be moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican also based upon the latest published polling and regional voter history.

Moreno Records First Lead in Ohio Senate Race; A Dead Heat in VA-7; In Governors’ Races, Indiana Stays Close, Stein Pulling Away in NC

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 30, 2024

Senate

Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno (R)

Ohio: Moreno Records First Lead — RMG Research went into the Ohio field with a flash poll (Sept. 18-20; 781 likely Ohio voters; online) and for the first time found Republican challenger Bernie Moreno (R) leading Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). The ballot test posted Moreno to a 47-45 percent edge, and 48-46 percent when respondents who said they are leaning to one candidate or the other were added to the decided total.

Though RMG has produced some questionable recent data, the current Ohio Senate race progression suggests that the overall trend is moving in Moreno’s direction. The three September polls prior to the RMG data release found Sen. Brown’s margin to be 1, 3, and 2 points; therefore, this race is moving toward pure toss-up range.

House

VA-7: Another Dead-Heat Poll — Despite a huge 7:1 advantage in fundraising through the latest published Federal Election Commission campaign finance report (June 30), retired Army Col. Eugene Vindman (D) has not pulled away from Republican Iraq/Afghan War veteran Derrick Anderson (R) in their battle for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. The new Ragnar Research Partners survey for the Anderson campaign (Sept. 14-17; 400 likely VA-7 voters; live interview) finds the two candidates locked in a dead-heat 43-43 percent tie. In August, the Ragnar data found the two contenders separated by only a 42-41 percent spread in Vindman’s favor.

The 7th District is one of the few competitive open seats in the country. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+2. The Down Ballot research organization ranks the seat as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) chose not to seek re-election in order to concentrate on a 2025 open race for governor.

Governor

Indiana: Closer Than Expected — The Republicans strength in the Hoosier State suggested that this year’s open governor’s race would not be particularly close. It still may end that way, but a new GBAO survey, conducted for the Democratic Governors Association (Sept. 19-22; 600 likely Indiana voters; live interview & text) currently finds a close ballot test result.

Despite former President Donald Trump leading the presidential race by 10 percentage points according to this Indiana poll, Sen. Mike Braun (R) maintains only a tepid advantage over former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick (D), 44-41 percent. The poll suggests that Sen. Braun is weak among Republicans, garnering only 80 percent support within his own party. McCormick, according to this data, also has the advantage with Independents by a 42-32 percent clip.

The previously released survey, from Emerson College (Sept. 12-13; 1,000 likely Indiana voters; multiple sampling techniques) found Sen. Braun holding a much more substantial 11-point lead, 45-34 percent.

North Carolina: Stein Pulling Away — Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson’s recent highly publicized controversy pertaining to past comments and actions is taking its toll. Attorney General Josh Stein (D) is now pulling away from Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in what was once a close race.

A series of four polls from Emerson College, Victory Insights, the New York Times/Siena College, and Marist College, all conducted between Sept. 15-24, with sample sizes ranging from 600 to 1,348, projects Stein as leading the governor’s race by 8, 5, 10, and 11 points, consecutively. As Robinson’s problems continue to mount, the race moves toward Stein clinching victory. Expect the Democrats to retain control of the Tar Heel State governor’s mansion. Two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

VP Harris Holds Slight Edge in Nevada; Balance of Senate Tested; Senate Money in Maryland; Examining California’s Key Districts

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 27, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Nevada: New Polling Data Tracking with 2020 Result — Noble Predictive Insights tested the Nevada electorate in reference to the presidential campaign and finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by only a percentage point, 48-47 percent.

Looking at the geographic division in the Noble poll and comparing it to Gov. Joe Lombardo’s (R) victorious 2022 votes received from Clark County (Las Vegas), Washoe County (Reno), and the rural Nevada areas, the Trump figures are equivalent to Lombardo’s performance in Clark and Washoe. It is the rural areas where Trump will need to slightly improve if he is to carry the state.

While he will outpace Harris by better than 2:1 in this region, Trump’s 2020 performance in the rural areas was a point behind Lombardo’s 2022 total. Considering Trump lost to then candidate Joe Biden by 2.3 percentage points here in 2020, the former president will need to improve slightly upon Lombardo’s numbers in all regions, but especially in the rural areas, if he is to compensate for his previous deficit.

Senate

FiveThirtyEight: Releases New Senate Mean Average Data — The FiveThirtyEight data organization released new mean averages for all the competitive Senate races and, for the most part, the numbers are consistent with averages publicized on other platforms.

While Democrats have relatively small but consistent leads in most of the competitive states, the Republican average is stronger (+3) in Montana, where a Tim Sheehy (R) victory over Sen. Jon Tester (D) would likely clinch an outright GOP Senate majority. The race that appears to be getting closer is in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) average advantage has dropped to three percentage points. The candidate with the strongest average is Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) at +9.

Maryland: Big Media Buy for Hogan Allies — Reports from the Free State are indicating that the Maryland’s Future Super PAC organization, which supports former Gov. Larry Hogan (R), has been reserving $18.2 million of advertising time for between now and the election. This is twice the amount that Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks is spending. Expect to see a large amount of Super PAC money to come to Alsobrooks’ rescue. The Democratic leadership and her outside allies will ensure the spending gap is at least equalized.

House

California: USC Releases Polls for Key Districts — The University of Southern California and the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at Cal State University Long Beach partnered to test eight California congressional districts. Two were Democrat vs. Democrat campaigns, and another found the sample size dropping significantly below an adequate level, so the numbers in CA-22 — Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. Rudy Salas (D) — should not be considered as viable. In the two Democratic seats, Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) board member Lateefah Simon leads in Rep. Barbara Lee’s (D-Oakland) open 12th District and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo posts a sizable advantage in Rep. Anna Eshoo’s (D-Atherton) open 16th CD.

Interestingly, in only one of two races where the Republican candidate held a lead, the USC poll features a GOP challenger. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) held a three-point lead over state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) in an open contest where the latter man’s most prevalent negative is his highly publicized drunk driving conviction. The other leader is Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) who posted only a one-point edge over former federal prosecutor and 2022 general election finalist Will Rollins (D).

The Democrats who were leading Republican incumbents were Adam Gray over Rep. John Duarte (one point difference), George Whitesides topping Rep. Mike Garcia (+2), and Derek Tran leading Rep. Michelle Steel (+2).
The pollsters interviewed 2,395 likely voters in the five congressional districts during the Sept. 14-21 period. Interestingly, the undecided voters, when pushed, leaned toward Reps. Duarte and Calvert, and for the Democratic candidate in the other three contests.

In terms of the presidential vote, Kamala Harris led in all tested districts against Donald Trump but ran an average of three percentage points behind Joe Biden’s 2020 tallies. All of these races are very much in play, and the turnout model will likely be the deciding factor.

Nebraska Not Likely to Change Electoral Vote System; Begich Up in Alaska; Lawler Leads Jones in NY-17; New Hampshire’s Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024

President

Nebraska: Not Likely to Change Electoral Vote System — The proposed move to change the Nebraska electoral vote apportionment is apparently dead. A key state senator announced his opposition, and the bill appears stalled. Gov. Jim Pillen (R) was urging that the unicameral legislature change the state back to winner-take-all status like 48 other states. While the entire congressional delegation supported the governor’s move, the legislature is not going along.

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that allow their congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote. The proposed change in Nebraska’s status would likely have given Donald Trump an extra electoral vote, which could be defining in what is expected to be a very close election. Chances are much better to make a change to effect the 2028 election. The state adopted their current electoral vote system in 1992.

House

AK-AL: Republican Begich Up for First Time — For the first time, a congressional poll shows Republican Nick Begich III leading incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). American Viewpoint, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee, (Sept. 14-17; 400 likely Alaska voters) finds Begich posting an edge of four points over Rep. Peltola, 44-40 percent.

Under the state’s top four system, two other candidates also advance into the general election, Democrat Eric Hafner, who is in federal prison, and Alaska Independent Party candidate John Wayne Howe. Should the final result show Begich the race leader but under 50 percent, the Ranked Choice Voting System will take effect, and this would likely mean that Rep. Peltola would win re-election even while getting fewer original votes.

NY-17: Lawler Continues to Lead — One of the key New York congressional races is Rep. Mike Lawler’s (R-Pearl River) first re-election battle in the D+7 (according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization) 17th Congressional District located in the Hudson Valley. Challenging the freshman congressman is former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D).

The survey, from the Democratic polling firm GBAO (Sept. 15-18; 500 likely NY-17 voters; live interview and text), finds Rep. Lawler leading Jones, 46-43 percent, which, the polling analysis illustrates is down from the congressman’s seven-point margin in August. Still, a Republican having any lead in such a district is a positive sign for the incumbent.

Governor

New Hampshire: Democrat Leads Ayotte — Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte easily won the Republican primary on Sept. 10 (66-32 percent over former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse), but the general election looks much different according to a new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll (Sept. 12-16; 1,695 likely New Hampshire general election voters; online). The ballot test shows a virtual tie between Ayotte and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D), 47-46 percent.

New Hampshire is a swing state that has been trending Democratic in recent elections. Former President Donald Trump has performed below an average Republican, which is another factor that could hurt Ayotte. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a new ad that compares Ayotte’s statement is 2016 that she would not vote for Trump with her current position that she is supporting him in 2024.

House Races Under the Radar

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024

2024 Election

US House Majority: Tightening Margin Predicted — It is becoming apparent that the 2024 election will produce another extremely close House majority, and maybe even tighter than the Republicans’ current five-seat margin.

While most of the attention is focused on the tight California and New York races where Republicans hold seven Democratic seats, others heretofore attracting less attention are also recently polling in toss-up range. Today, we look at three such campaigns.

• Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) is no stranger to close elections, having won her first term in the US House with only a six-vote margin. The eastern Iowa 1st District is politically marginal in that it contains the Hawkeye State portion of the Quad Cities area, which is a historically Democratic region.

In 2022, Rep. Miller-Meeks defeated then-state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) with a 53-46 percent victory margin. Last week, Bohannan, who returns for a rematch, released an internal Normington Petts poll from late August (Aug. 27-29; 400 likely IA-1 voters), which found the two candidates tied at 47 percent apiece. Rep. Miller-Meeks only received 56 percent in the Republican primary against weak opposition thus providing further evidence that this race is evolving into a toss-up campaign.

The 1st District running in a tied situation was not expected, but the region’s political history suggests that such a tight contest should not be considered so surprising. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4, and the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate the district’s partisan lean as 50.0R – 47.0D. The Down Ballot data organization ranks IA-1 as the 23rd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. In 2020, Trump carried the seat with only a 50-48 percent vote spread.

• The 2nd District of Maine attracts a great deal of attention in presidential years because the seat now routinely votes opposite of the statewide tally. Aside from Nebraska, the only other state to split its electoral votes and allow each congressional district to decide its own presidential tally is Maine. While the state has twice voted for the Democratic nominee against Donald Trump, the Republican has carried ME-2 in both of his elections and leads in polling this year.

Therefore, more attention will soon be drawn to the state’s 2nd District congressional election where Democrat Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is seeking a fourth term.

Pan Atlantic Research has released their early September Maine statewide poll (Sept. 5-15; 398 likely ME-2 voters from a pool of 812 statewide respondents; online) and it produced a surprising result. The data finds Rep. Golden actually trailing retired NASCAR driver and state Rep. Austin Theriault (R-Fort Kent) by a three-point margin, 47-44 percent.

The data looks similar to the 2018 numbers that first elected the congressman. In that election, Golden, then a challenger, was elected through Ranked Choice Voting even though then-Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) received more original votes. Though this 2024 race has the underpinnings to again be close, especially with former President Trump again likely to carry the seat, it may very well end with Rep. Golden once more winning through RCV even though his opponent could have more original votes.

• Western Wisconsin provides another seemingly under-the-radar competitive House race. Freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) won the Badger State’s 3rd District after Democrat Ron Kind had held the seat for 26 years. In 2022, Rep. Kind did not seek re-election.

WI-3 escapes attracting a great deal of national attention because Trump carried the seat in both of his elections, and with spreads of greater than four percentage points. He is also expected to win here this year in a state that will once again produce a very close statewide presidential tally.

Van Orden converted the 3rd District in the open election, but with a closer than expected 52-48 percent vote spread. National Democrats, believing their 2022 candidate had only long shot odds of defeating Van Orden, who had run a close 2020 race against then-Rep. Kind, didn’t expend a great deal of money in this campaign. They certainly will invest in the closing weeks of this election year.

Since his election to the House, Congressman Van Orden has made a series of controversial comments that have damaged his personal favorability rating. That being the case, the GBAO survey research firm, polling for the Democratic House Majority Super PAC (Sept. 8-10; 400 likely WI-3 voters), finds the congressman trailing his general election opponent, business owner Rebecca Cooke. The results yielded Cooke a two percentage point edge, 49-47 percent, providing further evidence that this is a viable Democratic conversion opportunity.

On the whole, Republican candidates appear to have taken an across-the-board downturn in polling during the latter half of August and into early September. This is largely because of renewed Democrat optimism with Vice President Kamala Harris’s national candidacy. Another reason is Republicans have been holding most of their advertising money for political prime time since the Democrats maintain greater resources.

The House majority will again be close, so every race counts. Races such as the three discussed here will go a long way toward defining the next majority even though they may not attract as much attention as what are commonly believed to be the premier national House campaigns.