Tag Archives: Rick Scott

Florida Poll Boosts DeSantis

By Jim Ellis

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) at the recent CPAC.

March 3, 2021 — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is quickly becoming a national talking point with regard to the 2024 presidential campaign, but he first must further prove himself with a 2022 re-election victory in the always politically close Sunshine State.

Over the weekend at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), Gov. DeSantis was clearly the choice of the conservative base as a potential heir-apparent to former President Donald Trump.

In the future presidential straw poll, former President Trump placed first among the several thousand individuals who participated. He took 55 percent of the first-place ranked choice votes. Gov. DeSantis was a clear second pick, however, with 24 percent. Without Trump in the field, it was Gov. DeSantis running away with the lead, capturing 43 percent with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem a distant 11 percent second-place finisher. Donald Trump, Jr. followed with eight percent support.

Just after CPAC, Mason-Dixon Polling & Research released the findings from their Florida poll conducted during the Feb. 24-28 period. The organization surveyed 625 registered Sunshine State voters through a live interview process.

According to the M-D results, Gov. DeSantis’ job approval rating has improved to 53:42 percent favorable to unfavorable, a net 15-point gain from his standing in the July 2020 M-D survey that found him saddled with an upside-down ratio of 45:49 percent.

The job approval ratings are a precursor to his ballot test standing opposite a prospective Democratic gubernatorial nominee, of whom the two leading choices appear to be State Agriculture & Consumer Affairs Commissioner Nikki Fried and US Rep. Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg) who may make his third run for governor.

From 2007-11, Crist was governor of the state, but served as a Republican. He switched parties after a failed run for the US Senate as an Independent, and won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2014, but lost to then-Gov. Rick Scott (R) in the general election.

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The Trafalgar Effect

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 15, 2020 — The Trafalgar Group is the polling firm that came to national political notoriety four years ago when they correctly predicted a Donald Trump victory in both Michigan and Pennsylvania and were the only survey research firm to do so. Since that time, they have forecast at least four other wins when the active polling community was arriving at opposite conclusions.

Yesterday, Trafalgar released its latest Pennsylvania data (Oct. 10-12; 1,034 likely Pennsylvania voters) and finds former vice president Joe Biden leading President Trump 47.4 – 45.1 percent — just over a two-point spread. In October, not counting the Trafalgar number, we see 12 other pollsters returning Pennsylvania data and they average a pro-Biden forecast of just under seven points.

Routinely, Trafalgar’s data shows President Trump in better position than most pollsters because they attempt to quantify what is termed the “shy Trump voter,” i.e., those who are actually voting for the incumbent but won’t admit it to a pollster. In most cases, the Trafalgar calculations, derived from a proprietary algorithmic formula, have been reliably accurate.

From 2016, we remember that, generally, the polling community missed badly in the Trump-Clinton presidential race. While their national count was accurate – predicting a tight plurality for Hillary Clinton (final result: 48.2 – 46.1 percent) – many state projections were off, particularly those in the Great Lakes region.

In the previous presidential election cycle, a total of 62 surveys were conducted in the state of Pennsylvania, and only three found a lead for President Trump, including the Trafalgar pre-election survey. In Michigan, 45 polls were publicly released, and Trump led in just two, one of which was Trafalgar’s final 2016 study. In Wisconsin, 33 polls were taken, and none found President Trump running ahead. Yet, in all three cases, he won the state.

The Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic region was not the only area where 2016 polling missed the mark. In North Carolina, the margin average looked to be dead even heading into the election, but President Trump won with a 3.6 percent spread. The cumulative polling missed Arizona by two points, and Florida by 1.2 percent. In all of these instances, the Republican voted was under-estimated.

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The Senate (Presidential) Cash

By Jim Ellis

Dec. 11, 2018 — The Federal Election Commission just released the post-election campaign financial disclosure reports (through the period ending Nov. 26), and the information allows us to draw some interesting conclusions.

The most eye-opening dollar statistic comes from Florida, where Sen. Bill Nelson (D) is reporting more than $3 million remaining in his campaign account after losing the closest statewide race in the country, a 9,763-vote loss (from over 8.19 million ballots cast) for the state’s governor’s seat, won by Rick Scott (R).

Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) has twice that amount ($6,781,146) in her campaign account, but it became evident weeks before the election that she was doomed to defeat. Therefore, and considering her state has the population for only one congressional district, it is not as surprising that she would have a major post-election cash balance.

Additionally, we also include the amount of campaign money held in the accounts of those senators who are looking to enter the presidential campaign, or at least publicly not ruling out consideration of such.

Immediately below are the financial statistics for the closest 2018 Senate campaigns. Remembering that the campaigns all have post-election expenses, it is prudent that some money be held back to pay bills that present themselves after the official election cycle ends. We will see that most of these campaigns have kept a reasonable amount of money, though several have kept more than an average amount.

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The Governors’ 2014 Scorecard

The 2014 gubernatorial cycle is shaping up to become one of the most competitive in recent years.

Now that the 2013 governors’ races are in the books, it’s a good time to look at the state chief executives from a national political perspective. At the beginning of the cycle, the Republicans held 30 state houses versus 20 for the Democrats, the best GOP showing in the modern political era. With Terry McAuliffe’s victory in the Virginia open race last week, Democrats have already gained one governor’s post, meaning the updated margin is now 29R-21D.

At this early point in the campaign cycle, it appears that as many as 13 races, nine Republican-held and four Democratic, should be rated as highly competitive. The most vulnerable of all incumbents standing for re-election are governors Rick Scott (R-FL) and Tom Corbett (R-PA), who trail potential Democratic opponents in all surveys. The most vulnerable Democratic seat is the Arkansas open (Gov. Mike Beebe, D, is ineligible to seek a third term), where former GOP Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR-3) consistently polls ahead of ex-Rep. Mike  Continue reading >

Florida Wavering

Sen. Bill Nelson

From Florida, the nation’s quintessential swing state, who would expect anything but close political contests? Therefore, it’s no surprise that the Sunshine State Senate race is again rendering new survey data suggesting yet another hotly contested statewide campaign.

Two polls were just released yesterday, each projecting very different results in the US Senate contest, which is also nothing new for this race. Much as we saw in the Hawaii Democratic primary, almost every publicly released survey shows a radically different result when compared with the study released directly before.

Often times, conflicting polls will indicate a very close race because the electorate is volatile. In this case, we have individual polls showing a very different cumulative Senate race result, but consistent patterns within their own particular sampling universes when testing other races and individual approval ratios.

Public Policy Polling (Aug. 31-Sept. 2; 1,548 likely Florida voters) gives Sen. Bill Nelson (D) a 45-38 percent lead over Rep. Connie Mack IV (R-FL-14). But Gravis Marketing, on a one-day (Sept. 2) automated survey of 1,288 likely Florida voters, reveals a much tighter race. According to Gravis, Nelson’s lead is only one point, 43-42 percent.

The PPP sample projects a decidedly negative impression of Rep. Mack, suggesting that the adverse attacks against him have taken their toll. By a ratio of 27:45 percent, the respondents voiced an unfavorable impression of the Ft. Myers congressman, who is the son of a popular former Florida senator. But, incumbent Nelson doesn’t fare much better. Asked whether the sampling universe approves or disapproves of the job he’s doing in office, the respondents registered a 35:42 percent overall negative impression.

Gravis didn’t test job or personal approval, but they did assess the presidential race. According to their sampling universe, Mitt Romney leads President Obama 48-47 percent. The firm also tested presidential preference within the two gender groups. The sample stated that Florida men favor Romney 54-42 percent. Women break for the President 51-44 percent. All of these numbers are in range with other polls, though the Romney share of the female vote projection is a bit higher than typically reported from other surveys. The fact that Gravis is consistent with the others on the presidential race and in range on the gender segmentation gives greater credibility to their conclusion suggesting that the Nelson-Mack contest is a dead heat.

The PPP survey did not test the Obama-Romney campaign, but they did ask other questions. Many had to do with former governor Charlie Crist and his impending switch from being an Independent to becoming a Democrat. You will remember Crist was elected governor in 2006 as a Republican and attempted to seek the GOP nomination for Senate in 2010, but when it became evident he could not overtake Marco Rubio for the party nomination, he bolted and ran unsuccessfully as an Independent.

Now, it is likely that Crist will become a Democrat and oppose GOP Gov. Rick Scott in 2014. The survey data pertaining to the party-switching former governor does little to verify PPP’s Senatorial numbers, because voting trends are not relevant with the Crist situation due to the impressions and attitudes expressed about him being personal in nature. Therefore, with the supporting data that is available it is difficult to gauge the PPP Senate ballot test reliability.

Sen. Nelson may very well hold a lead beyond the margin of error against Rep. Mack, but verifiable indications still point to a race that will get much closer before it is finally decided in November.