Tag Archives: Rick Snyder

New Michigan Numbers – Senate, Gov.

The Michigan Senate race is in flux. When Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) announced his retirement early last year, Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI-14) very quickly solidified himself as the consensus Democratic candidate with the help of the outgoing incumbent and his brother, Rep. Sander Levin (D-MI-9). The early maneuverings provided the Detroit congressman a favorite’s aura for the general election.

Initially, during Levin’s retirement announcement period, Republicans were making no secret of their inability to recruit a contender who they could proclaim as a top-flight candidate. When former two-term Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land came forward, the state and national party leaders continued to search for someone they felt would be stronger. Now, a fourth consecutive poll has forecast Land to be holding a small edge over Rep. Peters, thereby justifying the GOP’s renewed interest in making the Wolverine State a top Senatorial target.

According to the Michigan-based EPIC-MRA  Continue reading >

Incumbents in Trouble in Ark., Mich.; Clark Wins in Mass.

Arkansas

A new poll was just released for the Arkansas Senate race, the results of which give challenger Rep. Tom Cotton (R) a discernible seven-point lead over incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor (D). According to The Polling Company, Inc./Woman Trend for the Citizens United Political Victory Fund (Dec. 6-7; 400 registered Arkansas voters) Rep. Cotton projects to a 48-41 percent advantage. In an early race that features both candidates already airing television ads, this poll is the first to give either man a significant lead beyond the margin of error.

The Arkansas Senate race so far is performing relative to the national swing. When the Democrats were soaring during the government shutdown, Pryor took the lead. Now that Republicans are rebounding nationally, Cotton has likewise come back to erase his previous deficit and move significantly past the incumbent.

The early polling and trends reflecting the  Continue reading >

The Governors’ 2014 Scorecard

The 2014 gubernatorial cycle is shaping up to become one of the most competitive in recent years.

Now that the 2013 governors’ races are in the books, it’s a good time to look at the state chief executives from a national political perspective. At the beginning of the cycle, the Republicans held 30 state houses versus 20 for the Democrats, the best GOP showing in the modern political era. With Terry McAuliffe’s victory in the Virginia open race last week, Democrats have already gained one governor’s post, meaning the updated margin is now 29R-21D.

At this early point in the campaign cycle, it appears that as many as 13 races, nine Republican-held and four Democratic, should be rated as highly competitive. The most vulnerable of all incumbents standing for re-election are governors Rick Scott (R-FL) and Tom Corbett (R-PA), who trail potential Democratic opponents in all surveys. The most vulnerable Democratic seat is the Arkansas open (Gov. Mike Beebe, D, is ineligible to seek a third term), where former GOP Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR-3) consistently polls ahead of ex-Rep. Mike  Continue reading >

Battleground Michigan

There’s a great deal of news affecting Michigan politics this week.

First, Republican senatorial nominee Terri Lynn Land announcing that she will report more than $2 million raised in the quarter ending Sept. 30 is clearly a positive sign for her campaign. Irrespective of the fact that $1 million of the money came as a self-funding donation, the aggregate figure suggests that her campaign is off the ground in a significant way. This, coupled with relatively recent polling data projecting that she and Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI-14), the consensus Democratic candidate, are virtually tied, is making the GOP leaders’ case that the open Michigan Senate race will become a highly competitive national campaign.

At the end of the previous quarter, Rep. Peters had already banked more than $1.7 million. His third quarter entry is expected to top $3 million in aggregate dollars raised. The combined Democrat and Republican monetary amounts is beginning to boost this race into the top national tier.

Second, earlier in the week Public Policy Polling, surveying for the MoveOn.org PAC, examined 24 Republican congressional districts in order to test GOP incumbents against the charge that they are solely responsible for shutting down the government. Though the timing of the polling and slanted questionnaires skews the data, some tangible information did come forth. Of the 24 tested Republican House members, seven found themselves trailing a generic Democratic placebo by nine points or more. Three of the seven hail from Michigan.

Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI-7), who scored a strong but not overwhelming 53-43 percent win last November in his post-redistricting 7th CD, trailed the generic Democrat 42-51 percent.

Freshman Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R-MI-11), who is already facing a strong Republican primary challenger, placed 15 points behind the generic D, 39-54 percent.

The member faring the worst of all 24 tested, sophomore Rep. Dan Benishek (R-MI-1), drops behind a Democratic placebo by 22 full points, 35-57 percent. While these numbers come from polls  Continue reading >

Michigan’s Hoekstra Changes Course; He Will Run

Former Michigan Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-MI-2) abruptly changed his political course yesterday and now says he will challenge Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) next year for her Senate seat. Previously, the ex-congressman who lost the GOP gubernatorial primary in 2010, had removed himself from consideration as a potential candidate. Up to this point, the Michigan Senate race had been a recruitment disappointment for Republicans because they had not drafted a top tier challenger against Stabenow. Earlier in the year the Senator appeared to be vulnerable, mostly as a carry-over from the Republicans’ record showing in the 2010 Michigan elections.

Hoekstra is undoubtedly encouraged by a new EPIC-MRA Michigan poll that showed poor job approval numbers for Ms. Stabenow. According to their July 9-11 poll (600 Michigan registered voters), only 38 percent of those sampled approve of the job she is doing in the US Senate, versus 51 percent who disapprove. This is down from the 41:43 percent ratio she received from the firm’s May poll. Even though Stabenow’s numbers are poor, they are not as bad as President Obama’s 39:60 percent rating and Gov. Rick Snyder’s 34:57 percent. The President has taken a nose dive in popularity since the May poll, dropping a net of 20 points, when his ratio registered 49:50 percent. Mr. Snyder’s ratings, on the other hand, have actually improved over the past eight weeks when his EPIC-MRA positive to negative job approval score was 27:60 percent.
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