Tag Archives: Marco Rubio

Lara Trump Out in Florida;
Vance Senate Replacement Update

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025

Senate

Lara Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Former Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump announced before Christmas that she is removing herself from consideration to replace Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio as Senator in Florida, and there are new signals emerging about who will succeed Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance via similar appointment.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will appoint a new Florida Senator upon Rubio being confirmed as Secretary of State. Therefore, expect an individual who is close to DeSantis to be chosen. Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, Attorney General Ashley Moody, and ex-state House Speaker Jose Olivo are possible Rubio successors. DeSantis says he will announce his choice sometime in January.

Sen. Rubio will likely be one of the first Trump nominees confirmed since his position is one of the more important and the approval process before his 99 colleagues is expected to progress smoothly. There is little suggestion that he will lose any Republican votes and is likely to attract some crossover Democratic support.

Possibly, a reason for Ms. Trump’s withdrawal from consideration is an understanding that Gov. DeSantis is headed in another direction. He certainly will pick someone who has a campaign background and the ability to raise funds. Ms. Trump fit the bill concerning both of those qualifications but is not a Florida political insider. Ms. Trump hails from North Carolina and the Eric Trump family has lived in Florida for only a short time.

Whoever Gov. DeSantis selects will have to run to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and then again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term. Therefore, the new Senator will be in heavy fundraising mode for a full four-year period since Florida, the state with the third largest population, is a very expensive place in which to campaign.

Ohio — The Ohio appointment is interesting in that the top prospects are all saying they instead want to run in the state’s open Governor’s contest. Originally, it appeared that both Lt. Gov. Jon Husted and Attorney General Dave Yost were thought to be the top appointment contenders. Both had already announced they were running for Governor and each reiterated he wanted to stay in the race.

Another potential appointment, Secretary of State Frank LaRose who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2024, is also expressing interest in the Governor’s race. LaRose is thought of a long-shot appointment since he is well to the right of Gov. Mike DeWine, therefore it’s unlikely that the latter man would look in the Secretary’s direction.

Recent indications, however, suggest that Lt. Gov. Husted could still become Gov. DeWine’s choice for the Senate seat if Husted would change his intention and accept the position. Appointing Husted would make sense because it would save the Republicans from enduring a difficult and potentially divisive gubernatorial primary principally between he and Yost.

As in Florida, the new Ohio Senator will have to run in 2026 to fill the balance of the term, and then again in 2028 when the seat comes in-cycle for its six-year term. Therefore, it would behoove the Republicans to have a candidate who is experienced in running statewide campaigns and has the type of fundraising base that can sustain him or her through what will be a very expensive four-year political period, particularly if outgoing Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) decides to run in either 2026, 2028, or both.

In Brown’s unsuccessful re-election bid this year, he became the second most prolific fundraiser of all Senate candidates, attracting over $103 million in cycle financial receipts. Therefore, GOP fundraising would become an even greater priority if Brown becomes the new Senator’s opponent.

One group essentially disqualified from receiving a Senate appointment in either Florida and Ohio are Republican US House members. Already down a potential three seats until special elections are held due to Trump Administration nominations, the scant Republican majority cannot afford further leakage. Therefore, neither Governor will choose a Representative for the Senate appointment.

Nelson Testing the Gubernatorial Waters?

Earlier this year a spate of political rumors abounded that Florida Sen. Bill Nelson (D), fresh from his 2012 re-election to a third term, was looking at a 2014 gubernatorial run. Repeatedly denied by Nelson spokespeople at the time but never completely ruled out, more such stories are again surfacing. Now it appears that the senator’s political staffers are calling state Democratic political leaders to seek advice about their boss running for governor.

The Florida gubernatorial race should be one of the most competitive in the country. Incumbent Gov. Rick Scott (R) continues to poll badly with job approval ratings in upside down territory. As we all know, Florida performs as the nation’s quintessential swing entity, so all statewide contests have the potential of becoming very close.

Two weeks ago, former Gov. Charlie Crist declared his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Crist was elected state chief executive in 2006 as a Republican. He then filed as a candidate for the 2010 GOP senatorial nomination, but when it became apparent that he would lose the primary to former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, he left the party and ran as an Continue reading >

The Vote: Potential Aftermath

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)

The Ted Cruz (R-TX) informal Obamacare funding filibuster is predicted to inflict political harm, but there is a myriad of opinion as to who will suffer the most severe consequences for their respective votes at the polling place, if anyone.

Below are the names of the 18 Republican senators who supported Cruz by voting “No” on the continuing resolution cloture petition last Friday, and when they next face the voters:

Senators voting NO (alphabetical by state):

Jeff Sessions (R-AL), 2014

Richard Shelby (R-AL), 2016

Marco Rubio (R-FL), 2016

Mike Crapo (R-ID), 2016

Jim Risch (R-ID), 2014

Chuck Grassley (R-IA), 2016

Pat Roberts (R-KS), 2014

Jerry Moran (R-KS), 2016

Rand Paul (R-KY), 2016

David Vitter (R-LA), 2016

Deb Fischer (R-NE), 2018

Dean Heller (R-NV), 2018

Rob Portman (R-OH), 2016

Jim Inhofe (R-OK), 2014

Pat Toomey (R-PA), 2016

Tim Scott (R-SC), 2014

Mike Lee (R-UT), 2016

Mike Enzi (R-WY), 2014

Not Voting:

Jeff Flake (R-AZ), 2018

Orrin Hatch (R-UT), 2018

It’s possible, however, that certain Republican senators voting “Aye” and standing for election next year are in the more vulnerable position. The senators facing primary opposition include Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), himself. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is the other Continue reading >

Crist Running Well Among Democrats

It appears more probable that former Florida Republican Gov. Charlie Crist will attempt to regain his old job, but this time as a Democrat. And, if his personal approval ratings, as captured by the latest Quinnipiac University Florida poll, are accurate, then his chances of performing well before his new party voters are rapidly improving.

Crist, who was literally run out of the Republican senatorial primary by then-former state House Speaker Marco Rubio two years ago, ran poorly in the Senate race as an Independent and officially registered as a Democrat last week.

The new Q-Poll (Dec. 11-17; 1,261 registered Florida voters) gives Crist an overall 47:33 percent positive to negative personal favorability rating. Surprisingly, this is much better than 2010 nominee Alex Sink, who only lost to incumbent Gov. Rick Scott by just one percentage point. Ms. Sink’s favorability index was 27:14 percent, which yields a decent 2:1 positive ratio, but her name familiarity is much lower than one would have guessed about a person who ran in a major statewide contest in 2010 and had previously served in a statewide position, while twice attracting more than 2.5 million votes.

More confirming research will have to be presented before accepting the premise that Crist would be doing this well within his new party, especially in comparison to as accomplished a Democrat as Alex Sink.

Crist Makes It Official

Former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist officially registered as a Democrat yesterday in what is likely a prelude to entering the 2014 gubernatorial contest against incumbent Rick Scott (R). Crist announced the move via his Twitter account, Tweeting a picture Friday of he and his beaming wife with his Florida voter registration form. Crist, as a Republican, served one term as governor and chose to run for Senate instead of seeking re-election. The move proved politically disastrous.

Marco Rubio, then a former state House Speaker, ran such an effective early Republican primary campaign that Crist was literally forced out of the party, choosing to run in the general election as an Independent. He placed second to Rubio, trailing 49-30 percent, but came in 10 points ahead of the Democratic nominee, then-Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL-17).

Usually, a party-switcher’s most difficult election is his first primary in the new party. If Crist enters the Democratic nomination contest, he almost assuredly will have competition. In fact, he could still face the Democratic 2010 gubernatorial nominee, former Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, who only lost to Scott by a scant one percentage point, 49-48 percent. Sink has yet to rule out another run.

Scott is viewed as vulnerable because his job approval ratings have continued to hover around the 40 percent mark or lower for most of his tenure. As is the case for virtually every race in Florida, the contest is expected to be close.

Florida Senate Race Changes Shape

Things are heating up in the Florida Senate challenge to incumbent Senator Bill Nelson (D). Former interim Sen. George LeMieux dropped out of the Republican race earlier in the week and, in a statement released early Wednesday, indicated that he believed the national Republican Party had thrown its support behind Rep. Connie Mack IV (R-FL-14).

Former governor Charlie Crist (R-I) appointed LeMieux to the Senate in 2009 to fulfill the unexpired term of Sen. Mel Martinez (R) after his abrupt resignation. Crist went on to run for the seat in 2010 without party affiliation and lost to freshman Sen. Marco Rubio (R).

The developments again reveal the power political establishment backing has over candidates, even those with relatively high familiarity with voters. The other late breaking development here, and the two are related, is the emergence of former Rep. Dave Weldon (R-FL-15), who just recently and surprisingly indicated that he is entering the Senate race. While Mack is still heavily favored over Weldon, the campaign is just now reaching the cusp of the stretch drive for the Aug. 14 primary when many things change. Aside from Weldon, retired Army Col. Mike McCalister is also in the Republican race.

In a poll released yesterday, Quinnipac University found that Sen. Nelson has a slight 43-39 percent edge over Rep. Mack, but the young Republican congressman appears to be the prohibitive favorite for his party nomination. The poll, conducted June 12-18, prior to LeMieux’s departure, surveyed 1,697 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Mack polled the strongest among the GOP contenders, with the others trailing Nelson in double digits: 47-32 percent (LeMieux); 45-34 percent (McCalister); and 47-31 percent (Weldon).

Nelson’s slight lead over Mack is a net five point increase for the senator compared to the virtual tie Quinnipiac found in their May 24 poll (Mack leading 42-41 percent).

In the Republican primary, the Q-Poll shows Mack posting 41 percent, LeMieux in second with 8 percent, and McCalister following with 5 percent, while the late arriving Weldon registered only 3 percent among the 698 self-identified Republicans tested.

Though Mack and Nelson are running close in both private and public polling, it is Nelson’s major financial war chest that has most GOP operatives concerned. The senator has compiled an almost $8 million financial edge over his competitors and even with so many hot races taking place in Florida this cycle, he will still have the wherewithal to position himself strongly in the most expensive of television markets. Now with LeMieux out of the primary and Mack now clearly the GOP favorite, some Republican resources that otherwise would have gone towards winning the mid-August election can now be saved for the general.

The senator, who won his 2006 re-election with 60.3 percent of the vote, faces new economic challenges in the Sunshine state and, while he remains as the favorite in the race, the contest will definitely come down to the wire. This is a bona-fide contest with national implications.

Florida Rep. Mica Switches Districts

The Florida congressional redistricting map still awaits Gov. Rick Scott’s (R) signature and certain litigation before the Florida Supreme Court, but that hasn’t stopped members and candidates from making political moves. Even though the redistricting process is far from complete, the fact that many are already making moves signifies that they believe this is the footprint for most of the state. Such is the case for Reps. John Mica (R-FL-7) and Sandy Adams (R-FL-24). The new map placed both incumbents homes in the same district, new District 7, a north Orlando suburban seat that has swing characteristics.

But the map is almost certain to change. The high court, known as one of the more liberal judicial panels in the country, must reconcile the differences between the ballot initiative that Florida voters passed in 2010 and the Voting Rights Act. Contradictions exist between the two legal directives mandated to drawing the Florida districts.

Mr. Mica’s decision to run in CD 7, as he announced he would do late last week, is a curious one. The new 6th District actually contains more of his current northeast coastal seat and has a better Republican voting base. He could easily run there and avoid the incumbent pairing. Ms. Adams even indicated that Mica told her he would do just that when the maps were originally released.

Additionally, the decision is more questionable because the voting history of the new 7th indicates that this seat could become competitive in the general election. Therefore, even if Mica secures the Republican nomination over Adams, he could still face a strong battle in November.

President Obama scored 49 percent here in 2008, though Republicans rebounded strongly in 2010. Gov. Scott posted 51 percent and Sen. Marco Rubio (R) recorded 56 percent within the confines of the new district boundaries. The seat is a combined 29 percent minority (African-Americans and Hispanics). By contrast, John McCain scored a 53-45 percent win in District 6 and Gov. Scott topped 55 percent. Additionally, Mica currently represents 72 percent of FL-6 as compared to just 42 percent of District 7. Adams represents 51 percent of the new FL-7.

Since the Florida map could still change significantly, it remains to be seen if this pairing actually comes to fruition, but the wisdom in forcing the confrontation will continue to be questioned.