Tag Archives: Iowa

Pennsylvania Recount Controversy Intensifies; House Recount Status in Iowa, Ohio; Rep. Sherrill Announces for Governor in New Jersey

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024

Senate

David McCormick (R)

Pennsylvania: Recount Controversy Intensifies — The Pennsylvania Senate race continues to generate controversy. Democratic officials in Bucks, Center, Delaware, and Philadelphia counties are openly defying a state Supreme Court order to not count ballots that fail to have proper documentation. Republicans have already filed 12 lawsuits in localities to stop the practice of adding what the state Supreme Court has already reaffirmed are illegal ballots. The recount is getting underway and different news outlets are reporting different vote spreads. The range for Republican David McCormick over Democrat Sen. Bob Casey Jr. stretches from an approximate 29,000-plus to 17,000-plus votes.

In the end, the Senate itself will be the final arbiter over seating new senators. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), citing the aforementioned allowance of the already defined illegal ballots, is calling upon the senators to reject seating Casey should the recount push him to the forefront. Expect the controversy to drag on at least until the Thanksgiving holiday.

House

IA-1: Another Pending Recount — Eastern Iowa election officials are dealing with congressional candidate Christina Bohannan’s (D) request for a recount of the Iowa 1st District results that find Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) projected as an 801-vote winner. It is unlikely that a recount will drastically change such a margin, but the congresswoman is no stranger to close elections resulting in recounts. She first won the seat in 2020 with a six-vote margin. The Iowa election certification deadline is Dec. 2, so we will likely see final numbers at that time.

OH-9: Recount Possible — Election officials in the eight counties that comprise Ohio’s 9th Congressional District anchored in the city of Toledo continue to determine which provisional and remaining absentee ballots will be added to the aggregate count. The county officials are supposed to present final numbers by today, Wednesday, Nov. 20. If the official candidate totals are within a half-percent, Ohio’s secretary of state will conduct a recount.

The unofficial totals find Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) leading state Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova Township) by 1,193 votes from a total of 366,062 ballots cast. The current margin is just 0.3 percent, which would be within the range of a mandated recount. Rep. Kaptur has already declared victory.

Governor

New Jersey: Rep. Sherrill Announces 2025 Candidacy — As she promised she would do after the 2024 general election, Garden State Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) officially announced her gubernatorial candidacy in the New Jersey open 2025 campaign.

Already in the Democratic primary are Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Stephen Fulop, Montclair Mayor Stephen Spiller, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. Since the New Jersey elections are held in the odd-numbered years, neither House member will have to risk his or her seat to run for governor.

For the Republicans, 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli, who held Gov. Phil Murphy (D) to a close 51-48 percent victory is running again as is state Sen. John Bramnick (R-Plainfield), ex-state Sen. Ed Durr, and radio talk show host Bill Spadea.

House Races Under the Radar

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024

2024 Election

US House Majority: Tightening Margin Predicted — It is becoming apparent that the 2024 election will produce another extremely close House majority, and maybe even tighter than the Republicans’ current five-seat margin.

While most of the attention is focused on the tight California and New York races where Republicans hold seven Democratic seats, others heretofore attracting less attention are also recently polling in toss-up range. Today, we look at three such campaigns.

• Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) is no stranger to close elections, having won her first term in the US House with only a six-vote margin. The eastern Iowa 1st District is politically marginal in that it contains the Hawkeye State portion of the Quad Cities area, which is a historically Democratic region.

In 2022, Rep. Miller-Meeks defeated then-state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) with a 53-46 percent victory margin. Last week, Bohannan, who returns for a rematch, released an internal Normington Petts poll from late August (Aug. 27-29; 400 likely IA-1 voters), which found the two candidates tied at 47 percent apiece. Rep. Miller-Meeks only received 56 percent in the Republican primary against weak opposition thus providing further evidence that this race is evolving into a toss-up campaign.

The 1st District running in a tied situation was not expected, but the region’s political history suggests that such a tight contest should not be considered so surprising. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4, and the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate the district’s partisan lean as 50.0R – 47.0D. The Down Ballot data organization ranks IA-1 as the 23rd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. In 2020, Trump carried the seat with only a 50-48 percent vote spread.

• The 2nd District of Maine attracts a great deal of attention in presidential years because the seat now routinely votes opposite of the statewide tally. Aside from Nebraska, the only other state to split its electoral votes and allow each congressional district to decide its own presidential tally is Maine. While the state has twice voted for the Democratic nominee against Donald Trump, the Republican has carried ME-2 in both of his elections and leads in polling this year.

Therefore, more attention will soon be drawn to the state’s 2nd District congressional election where Democrat Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is seeking a fourth term.

Pan Atlantic Research has released their early September Maine statewide poll (Sept. 5-15; 398 likely ME-2 voters from a pool of 812 statewide respondents; online) and it produced a surprising result. The data finds Rep. Golden actually trailing retired NASCAR driver and state Rep. Austin Theriault (R-Fort Kent) by a three-point margin, 47-44 percent.

The data looks similar to the 2018 numbers that first elected the congressman. In that election, Golden, then a challenger, was elected through Ranked Choice Voting even though then-Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) received more original votes. Though this 2024 race has the underpinnings to again be close, especially with former President Trump again likely to carry the seat, it may very well end with Rep. Golden once more winning through RCV even though his opponent could have more original votes.

• Western Wisconsin provides another seemingly under-the-radar competitive House race. Freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) won the Badger State’s 3rd District after Democrat Ron Kind had held the seat for 26 years. In 2022, Rep. Kind did not seek re-election.

WI-3 escapes attracting a great deal of national attention because Trump carried the seat in both of his elections, and with spreads of greater than four percentage points. He is also expected to win here this year in a state that will once again produce a very close statewide presidential tally.

Van Orden converted the 3rd District in the open election, but with a closer than expected 52-48 percent vote spread. National Democrats, believing their 2022 candidate had only long shot odds of defeating Van Orden, who had run a close 2020 race against then-Rep. Kind, didn’t expend a great deal of money in this campaign. They certainly will invest in the closing weeks of this election year.

Since his election to the House, Congressman Van Orden has made a series of controversial comments that have damaged his personal favorability rating. That being the case, the GBAO survey research firm, polling for the Democratic House Majority Super PAC (Sept. 8-10; 400 likely WI-3 voters), finds the congressman trailing his general election opponent, business owner Rebecca Cooke. The results yielded Cooke a two percentage point edge, 49-47 percent, providing further evidence that this is a viable Democratic conversion opportunity.

On the whole, Republican candidates appear to have taken an across-the-board downturn in polling during the latter half of August and into early September. This is largely because of renewed Democrat optimism with Vice President Kamala Harris’s national candidacy. Another reason is Republicans have been holding most of their advertising money for political prime time since the Democrats maintain greater resources.

The House majority will again be close, so every race counts. Races such as the three discussed here will go a long way toward defining the next majority even though they may not attract as much attention as what are commonly believed to be the premier national House campaigns.

Polling Histories: On Repeat for 2024?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 20, 2024

Polling

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Media stories are covering the recently released Selzer & Company Iowa poll, from a research entity proven as the Hawkeye State’s most accurate pollster. According to the Selzer survey (Sept. 8-11; 656 likely Iowa voters; live interview), former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is 47-43 percent, which is being cast as a tightening of the race in what has proven to be a strong Trump domain.

Researching the commensurate Selzer Sept. 17-19 Iowa poll from the 2020 election, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the ballot test projected a tie between Trump and candidate Joe Biden. Trump would then move on to post an eight-point victory in Iowa in the succeeding election.

Should a similar pattern exist for 2024 in a state that typically breaks late for one candidate or the other, it is possible that Trump’s impending Iowa victory could be even stronger than his win four years ago, considering he is in better shape today when compared to his 2020 dead-heat standing.

Many states feature reliable polling histories and trends that repeat. Iowa surveys tend to routinely show tight races early with a late break. In another example, Republicans tend to under-poll in the southern states, but over-poll in New Jersey and among African-American voters.

Georgia, which is an all-important state in this year’s presidential election, tends not to follow the pattern of the other southern states. Here, the polling tends to be particularly accurate. Therefore, current polls finding Trump and Harris locked into what appears to be a dead heat should be considered correct.

Looking at some of the key battleground states, all are producing tight margins between Harris and Trump. This means we are far from seeing the 2024 race decided, and either candidate is in a position to win the election.

Appearing to be the closest states among the key battlegrounds are Nevada and Pennsylvania, which the Real Clear Politics statistical projections forecast as being dead-even when looking at the accumulation of polls conducted right after Harris was installed as the Democrats’ replacement nominee through the present time.

The same formula suggests that Trump has the slightest average lead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Harris posts tight average leads in Michigan and Wisconsin.

In Nevada, 11 polls have been conducted since Harris became the Democrat nominee. She leads in six of the 11, and Trump, five. In 2020, looking at this same late July through mid-September period, Joe Biden had an average lead of six percentage points from a dozen polls conducted during the studied period and led in all 12 of the surveys. Yet Biden would only carry the state by less than one percentage point (0.7 percent) in the succeeding November vote. If this polling pattern remains consistent in 2024, then Trump would be well positioned for a Silver State upset.

Many believe that Pennsylvania is becoming the ultimate deciding state, although there are plausible ways that both candidates can win the national election without carrying the Keystone State. Still, whichever candidate does win there, that candidate will score a huge bonus on their electoral college victory projection map.

Since July, 15 Pennsylvania polls have been conducted and the two contenders are virtually even in support. Of the 15 surveys, Trump has led in seven and Harris, five. Three of the polls have resulted in a flat tie. Four years ago, Biden, again within the commensurate late July to mid-September period, had an average lead of four percentage points within this aggregate group of research studies. Furthermore, he led in 11 polls with one tie. Trump did not post an advantage in a single poll during the commensurate interval.

The Pennsylvania election culminated in a Biden victory spread of 1.3 percentage points, which again suggests that Trump gained support in the critical closing weeks. Though it wasn’t enough for him to win in 2020, such a repeat performance would be enough to carry the state in 2024, and with that a likely national victory would occur.

Iowa Poll Shows Trump’s Lead at Four Points; Two Incumbents Trail in California; Close Race in VA-2

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump ahead in Iowa.

Iowa: Selzer & Company Poll Shows Trump’s Lead at Four Points — Media stories are covering the newly released Selzer & Company Iowa poll, which has proven to be the state’s most accurate pollster. According to the Selzer survey (Sept. 8-11; 656 likely Iowa voters; live interview), former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is 47-43 percent, which is being cast as a closing of the race in what has proven to be a strong Trump state.

Researching the Selzer Sept. 17-19 Iowa poll in 2020, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the ballot test showed a tie between Trump and candidate Joe Biden. Biden would then move onto post an eight-point victory in the succeeding election.

House

CA-22: Rep. Valadao Trailing — California’s Fresno area 22nd District is the second-most Democratic seat that elects a Republican in the country. Therefore, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) is always in a difficult re-election campaign. The Normington Petts research firm returned a late August survey (part of a six district series conducted for the House Majority PAC; 8/25-27; 400 CA-22 likely voters) that finds Rep. Valadao trailing former state assemblyman and 2022 opponent Rudy Salas (D) by two percentage points, 46-44 percent.

The analysis indicates that voters oppose Project 2025, feel it would be a “rubber stamp” for a new Trump Administration, and concentrates on the abortion issue. This suggests the series is in the push poll category. It is highly doubtful that in one of the lowest turnout districts in the country respondents would be familiar enough with Project 2025, a publication from the Heritage Foundation and not any candidate or the Republican Party, to harbor such a negative opinion. It is clear, however, that this race lies in the toss-up category as this poll shows.

CA-41: Strange Polling Results — There is little doubt that Republicans lost some momentum across the board in late August, but a newly released early September survey in California’s 41st District can’t be right. RMG Research conducted a series of online polls for US Term Limits over a long sampling period. The CA-41 poll (Sept. 5-12; 450 likely CA-41 voters; online) finds 16-term Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) trailing former federal prosecutor and 2022 Democratic nominee Will Rollins by a 41-35 percent split.

Calvert, who has represented the Riverside area for 32 years and defeated Rollins 52-48 percent in 2022, has to have more support than 35 percent in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7. While this is again a competitive race, such a poll result, also with an unusually high undecided figure, should be considered as an outlier.

VA-2: Two Polls Show Close Race — A pair of congressional polls were released for the Tidewater area’s 2nd Congressional District. Both pollsters find close results, which is no surprise for a district that typically features tight campaigns. On the ballot is Virginia freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) and businesswoman Missy Cotter Smasal (D). For the House Majority PAC — a Super PAC with ties to the Democratic leadership — Impact Research reports their results in a poll conducted in late August and part of a six district series (Aug. 20-25; 500 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) that gives Rep. Kiggans only a one point edge, 48-47 percent.

A more recent survey gives Kiggans some better news. Christopher Newport University tested the 2nd District electorate (Sept. 6-10; 792 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) and they find the congresswoman in stronger shape with a 45-40 percent edge.

Yesterday’s Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Primary Results

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) wins tight primary race.

Iowa: Closer Results Than Expected — In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) only scored a 56-44 percent renomination victory over businessman David Pautsch, who attacked over a series of her centrist votes. Pautsch had raised just $35,000 through the May 15 pre-primary disclosure period. Therefore, him holding Miller-Meeks to only 56 percent within her own party suggests significant incumbent weakness for the general election.

In the state’s western district, two-term Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) only scored a 60 percent win over former CIA agent Kevin Virgil who was backed by many of former US Rep. Steve King’s supporters. Rep. Feenstra holds Iowa’s safest congressional district and will now have little trouble winning a third term in November.

In the most competitive seat, the Des Moines-anchored 3rd District, Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) will face former Department of Agriculture official Lanon Baccam, who scored an easy 84 percent victory in the Democratic primary. In 2022, Nunn nipped two-term incumbent Cindy Axne (D) with a less than a one-point margin.

Montana: No Surprises — Last evening in Montana went as expected. Sen. Jon Tester (D) and Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) both easily won renomination. Overall, Republican participation was greater as one would expect based upon vote trends from elections after 2012. Approximately 57 percent of those who cast a ballot in the primary did so on the Republican side.

Sen. Tester will now officially face retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) in the general election for what will be one of the most important Senate races on anyone’s ballot.

In the open 2nd District, State Auditor Troy Downing defeated former US Rep. Denny Rehberg, ex-DEA agent Stacy Zinn, and state superintendent for Public Instruction to score a 37-17-15-9 percent Republican primary victory. As the new 2nd District Republican nominee, Downing is virtually assured of succeeding retiring Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) in the safely Republican eastern Montana congressional district.

New Jersey: Rep. Menendez Wins — After being outspent and trailing in an early poll, freshman New Jersey US Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) defended himself last night against a serious challenge from Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla to record a 54-36 percent renomination victory. In a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+47, the congressman’s primary win has unofficially secured him a second term. He also overcame the baggage he inherited from his father, Sen. Bob Menendez, and the latter’s criminal indictment and trial.

In the open Garden State Senate race, as predicted, US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) easily won the Democratic primary, scoring 75 percent of the vote against two minor candidates. Republicans nominated real estate developer Curtis Bashaw with approximately 46 percent of the vote against three GOP opponents. Bashaw will advance to the general election against Rep. Kim and Sen. Menendez who is running as an Independent.

In Rep. Kim’s open 3rd District, also as expected, state Assemblyman Herb Conaway (D-Delran) looks to have topped state Assemblywoman Carol Murphy (D-Mt. Laurel) by a 2:1 margin. Conaway will now have a relatively easy ride in the general election from a seat that redistricting transformed into a likely Democratic domain. The FiveThirtyEight organization rates NJ-3 as D+9.

New Mexico: Senate & House Races — All major candidates unopposed in both New Mexico and South Dakota; there was no drama in either state, and obviously no close results.

The New Mexico Senate race will feature Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) and former hedge fund executive Nella Domenici (R), the daughter of the late Sen. Pete Domenici (R). Unsurprisingly, turnout favored the Democrats last night, and though the Senate race has the underpinnings of a race that could be competitive, Sen. Heinrich remains a clear favorite for re-election.

Another major contest will be the rematch between 2nd District US Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) and former Rep. Yvette Herrell (R). The two battled to a close finish in 2022, with the challenger unseating the incumbent by less than a percentage point in a district redrawn to elect a Democrat. The rematch will be highly competitive and a race that will go a long way toward determining which party controls the next House majority.

South Dakota: Two Statewide Races — The only two statewide races will be the presidential and US House races. Both congressional candidates were unopposed yesterday, so we will see Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) defend his seat against retired school employee Sheryl Johnson (D). The congressman should have little trouble securing a fourth term in November.

Today’s Primaries

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 4, 2024

Another primary day occurs today, and this time voters in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota will complete their 2024 nomination process.

Iowa

Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ (R-Le Claire)

The Hawkeye State US House incumbents do not face any serious challenges, but three of their four seats are extremely important to the House Republicans’ chances of holding their slim majority.

In the 1st District, a rematch of the 2022 campaign that saw Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) defeat then-state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) by a 53-46 percent count, is on tap for November. We can expect another competitive general election with Rep. Miller-Meeks favored to win. Congresswoman Miller-Meeks faces only minor primary opposition tonight.

Second District Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) sees a new opponent emerge in 2024, businesswoman Sarah Corkery (D). Both women are unopposed in their respective primaries. Rep. Hinson will be the clear favorite to claim a third term in November.

The state’s Des Moines-anchored 3rd District is the pure toss-up CD. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) nipped two-term incumbent Cindy Axne (D) in 2022 with a less than one-point margin spread. Axne, who accepted an appointment in the Biden Administration, is not returning for a rematch. Democrats Lanon Baccam, the Department of Agriculture’s former Deputy Under Secretary, and non-profit executive Melissa Vine are battling for the Democratic nomination. Baccam is favored to win, and we can expect the 3rd District to again become the site of a very close congressional race.

In the western Iowa 4th District, two-term Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) has little to worry about in tomorrow’s primary or the general election.

Montana

Turning to Big Sky Country, Sen. Jon Tester (D) and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy both will overcome minor primary challenges and proceed into one of the most important Senate general elections in the nation. The winner of this race will go a long way to determining the next Senate majority.

Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) is also on the ballot running for a second four-year term. He also has only minor primary opposition and will likely cruise to re-election in November.

In the 1st Congressional District, we will likely see voters renominate both US Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) and Democrat Monica Tranel who held the former to a closer than expected 50-46 percent result. The congressman leads Montana House candidates in fundraising, attracting over $5.2 million for the cycle. He is expected to perform better in this year’s general election.

It is almost a certainty that retiring Rep. Matt Rosendale’s (R-Glendive) successor will be determined tonight in the Republican primary. Through a crowded field of nine candidates, the GOP winner will likely be State Auditor Troy Downing, former Congressman Denny Rehberg, or state Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen.

New Jersey

The Garden State is likely to produce the most interesting June 4 primary. Indicted US Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is not running in the Democratic primary but is submitting signatures at tomorrow’s deadline to qualify as an Independent. His candidacy is likely launched so he can tap the $3.6 million in campaign funds to pay for his legal fees.

The prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination is US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown). Once New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy (D) ended her campaign, the victory path cleared for Rep. Kim. Four Republicans are fighting for the GOP nomination, but tomorrow’s winner will have little chance against Kim in November.

The most vulnerable House member seeking renomination is freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City), the senator’s son. Saddled with his father’s negative publicity surrounding his bribery trial, Rep. Menendez has drawn a strong opponent in the person of Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla. Bhalla has out-raised the incumbent, and earlier polls found Bhalla even taking the lead among sampled Democrats. This is the race to watch tonight, and it is possible we could see the first Democratic incumbent defeat of the 2024 election cycle.

Rep. Menendez has been campaigning hard and has both Gov. Phil Murphy (D) and Mrs. Murphy stumping for him. It remains to be seen if he has enough to withstand the family’s negative publicity and the strong challenge that Mayor Bhalla has afforded.

In Rep. Kim’s open 3rd District Democratic primary, state assemblyman and physician Herb Conaway (D-Delran) is favored to defeat Assemblywoman Carol Murphy (D-Mt. Laurel). Post-redistricting, NJ-3 became a safe Democratic seat. Therefore, today’s Democratic primary winner will claim the seat in November.

The death of Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-Newark) has caused the 10th District primary to be nominated in a party convention after the July 16 special election to fill the balance of the term. It is a foregone conclusion that the special election nominee will become the anointed regular general election standard bearer and we will cover this district prior to the special election primary.

In other races, Reps. Chris Smith (R-Manchester), Frank Palone (D-Long Branch), Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield, Bill Pascrell (R-Paterson), Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), and Bonnie Watson-Coleman (D-Ewing Township) all face only minor opponents tomorrow night.

New Mexico

There are no challenged primaries in New Mexico major races. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) and Nella Domenici (R) will advance into the general election in a race that promises to produce some competitive fireworks.

The major US House race comes in the form of a rematch in District 2 after then-Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) unseated then-Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) in 2022 by less than a percentage point from a district that was reconfigured to elect a Democrat. The rematch will again yield a competitive contest in a place where the Republicans will heavily target.

South Dakota

Though the Mount Rushmore State has a primary scheduled, there is no Senate or governor’s race, and the at-large House candidates are unopposed.

Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) will face retired school employee Sheryl Johnson (D) in what will be another easy ride to re-election for the three-term congressional incumbent.

June Incumbent Challenges — Part I

by Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 30, 2024

Primaries

Now that we are through the Texas runoffs, it’s time to look at a very active primary schedule for the month of June with voters in 14 states choosing their nominees for the general election.

We begin Part I of our two-part series with the June 4 primaries that feature New Jersey, Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Only in New Jersey, however, do we see a competitive primary challenge to an incumbent House member.

New Jersey freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City)

New Jersey — Rep. Rob Menendez is fighting for renomination burdened with political baggage from his father’s legal woes. Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is currently on trial for bribery charges and could possibly see a verdict before the June 4 primary. Rep. Menendez has been heavily advertising recently, attempting to defend himself against a difficult Democratic primary challenge from Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla.

Through the May 15 pre-primary candidate financial disclosure filing, Mayor Bhalla actually out-raised Rep. Menendez, $2.02 million to $1.64 million. Menendez has the key endorsements and organizational backing, but the latest released poll, from the Global Strategy Group in early April, found the mayor leading Rep. Menendez by a 33-28 percent margin. This will be the challenge race to watch on June 4.

South Carolina — We have primary voting in South Carolina, Maine, Nevada, and North Dakota on June 11. The incumbent challenges to follow on this day are in South Carolina’s 1st and 4th Districts. Here, Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and William Timmons (R-Greenville) are defending themselves against former Haley Administration official and ex-gubernatorial candidate Catherine Templeton and state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Greenville), respectively.

Rep. Mace has an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, but as one of the members who voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, she is under attack from outside organizations.

The campaign’s latest published poll comes from Emerson College (May 19-21; 400 likely SC-1 Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and projects Rep. Mace to be holding a 47-22 percent lead over Ms. Templeton. The danger Mace faces, however, is failing to hit the 50 percent mark. If so, the race advances into a two-week runoff period where the top two finishers will square off in a June 25 secondary election.

Across the state in the Greenville-Spartanburg anchored 4th District, Rep. Timmons again faces a serious primary challenge. In 2022, in a field of three opponents, Rep. Timmons, then a freshman congressman, received only 52.7 percent of the Republican primary vote. With the Democrats not even fielding a candidate in the 4th District, Rep. Timmons was home free once he won the primary election.

Reports of an extra-marital affair dragged Timmons’ image down and he managed to win only a relatively tight Republican primary contest that saved him from having a very short congressional career.

This time the anti-Timmons vote is centered around just one candidate, state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Greenville). Though former President Trump has endorsed Rep. Timmons, much of the conservative base is gravitating toward Morgan. The congressman is regarded as at least a slight favorite, but an upset here remains a possibility.

Oklahoma — Turning to June 18, the state of Oklahoma hosts one major incumbent primary. Just north of the Red River, which separates the Sooner State and Texas, Rep. Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman) defends himself in what is turning into an expensive primary.

The congressman’s opponent is insurance executive Paul Bondar who plans to drop at least $2 million of his own money into the race and is already advertising extensively on electronic media. The message attacks Cole as an insider who has lost touch with his constituency and refers to him as a resident of the “Washington Swamp.”

Rep. Cole is also spending heavily and going on offense, bringing to the forefront that Bondar has only recently moved to Oklahoma to the point where he even voted in Texas earlier this year. He also illustrates that Bondar’s real community ties are still in Texas.

Rep. Cole is responding aggressively in this primary race, but the closing days of this campaign will be interesting. The congressman is favored to win, but how the race concludes is well worth watching.