By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024
House
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released their first targeting list entitled “Red to Blue,” though the group of 17 House districts actually contained one already in the Democratic column.
In alphabetical order by state, the list of 17 includes 16 Republican districts where the DCCC has endorsed a Democratic candidate:
| STATE | DISTRICT | INCUMBENT | DCCC CANDIDATE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 13 | DUARTE, JOHN | ENGEL, KIRSTEN |
| California | 6 | CISCOMANI, JUAN | GRAY, ADAM |
| California | 22 | VALADAO, DAVID | SALAS, RUDY |
| California | 27 | GARCIA, MIKE | WHITESIDES, GEORGE |
| California | 41 | CALVERT, KEN | ROLLINS, WILL |
| Colorado | 3 | OPEN | FRISCH, ADAM |
| Iowa | 1 | MILLER-MEEKS, M. | BOHANNON, CHRISTINE |
| Iowa | 3 | NUNN, ZACH | BACCAM, LANON |
| Michigan | 7 | OPEN | HERTEL, CURTIS |
| Michigan | 1 | ZINKE, RYAN | TRANEL, MONICA |
| Nebraska | 2 | BACON, DON | VARGAS, TONY |
| New York | 3 | SPECIAL ELECTION | SUOZZI, TOM |
| New York | 17 | LAWLER, MIKE | JONES, MONDAIRE |
| New York | 19 | MOLINARO, MARC | RILEY, JOSH |
| Oregon | 5 | CHAVEZ-DeREMER, L. | BYNUM, JANELLE |
| Texas | 15 | de la CRUZ, MONICA | VALLEJO, MICHELLE |
| Virginia | 2 | KIGGANS, JEN | SMASAL, MISSY COTTER |
The Michigan district included in the above list is that of Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing). Her run for the Senate leaves her central Michigan seat open, but the Democrats winning here in 2024 would not result in a party division gain.
President Joe Biden carried only six the 16 Republican districts, and the FiveThirtyEight data organization provided a numerical rank so as to consider lean Democratic in those same six districts. Therefore, on this list, the half-dozen names below should be viewed as the most achievable targets, which, as you will see, are California and New York dominant.
They are:
- CA-13 (Duarte)
- CA-22 (Valadao)
- CA-27 (Garcia)
- NY-3 (Special election; Santos)
- NY-17 (Lawler)
- OR-5 (Chavez-DeRemer)
This underscores that the key states to determine the next House majority are the Golden and Empire States.
Most of the endorsed Democratic candidates (12 in the 16 Republican held seats) previously ran and lost their race in 2022. A total of 10 unsuccessfully opposed the current GOP House incumbent, while two lost other races (Tom Suozzi, Governor; Mondaire Jones, NY-10).
Curiously, some other vulnerable districts were excluded from this first release. Likely, this is due to one of three reasons: the DCCC has not yet endorsed a candidate; they don’t see a sufficiently competitive challenger within the current field; or, they perceive the Republican incumbent as being too strong.
They are:
| DISTRICT | CANDIDATE |
|---|---|
| AZ-1 | David Schweikert |
| CA-40 | Young Kim |
| CA-45 | Michelle Steel |
| FL-13 | Anna Paulina Luna |
| FL-27 | Maria Elvira Salazar |
| MI-10 | John James |
| NJ-7 | Tom Kean Jr. |
| NY-4 | Anthony D’Esposito |
| NY-22 | Brandon Williams |
| PA-1 | Brian Fitzpatrick |
| PA-10 | Scott Perry |
| WI-1 | Bryan Steil |
Most of the members included within this latter group will be added to later target lists. The fact that Rep. Steil’s name is not yet appended to the “Red to Blue” listing suggests that the Wisconsin State Supreme Court may not order a redraw of the congressional map this cycle. Keeping Rep. Steil’s congressional district intact would give him little incentive to launch a statewide campaign against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).
At this point in the new redistricting process, Republicans are likely gaining a net one seat, but the New York redraw hasn’t yet occurred.
The GOP is assuredly gaining three seats from North Carolina, while the Democrats look to increase by one each in Alabama and Louisiana. Since the Georgia and Florida maps will not likely change for the 2024 election portends good news for Republicans; likewise for the Democrats in New Mexico.
