Tag Archives: Oregon

RFK Jr. Qualifies in California; CA-16 Tie is Broken; Dem Disqualified in NY-26; New Leader in OR-5 Race

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 3, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Qualifies in CA — Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has qualified for the 2024 general election ballot in California as the nominee of the American Independent Party. In addition to the Golden State, he has an official ballot position in Michigan and Utah. He has filed the requisite number of signatures in Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, and awaits certification in each of those states.

While Kennedy may affect the outcome in some of the aforementioned swing states, solidly blue California will not be in play. President Joe Biden will easily carry the nation’s largest state regardless of RFK Jr.’s ballot presence.

House

CA-16: The Tie is Broken — As expected, recounting all ballots in California’s 16th District jungle primary election did break the tied vote for the second qualifying general election ballot position. Both state Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) and San Mateo County Supervisor Joe Simitian each finished the initial count with 30,249 votes. Allies of the first-place finisher, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D), then paid for a recount. Neither Low nor Simitian moved for a recount because California election procedure allows all tied candidates to advance into the general election. Otherwise, it is only the two top vote-getters who compete in November.

With the recount now final, Assemblyman Low finished with an adjusted five-vote margin, meaning he will solely advance to the general election to face former Mayor Liccardo. It will now be interesting to see if Simitian now requests and finances a second recount. With such small vote margins, another recount could produce a different result.

NY-26: Democrat Disqualified — A day after state Sen. Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) easily won the special election to succeed resigned Rep. Brian Higgins (D) in New York’s 26th Congressional District, his regular election Democratic challenger, former two-time congressional candidate Nate McMurray, has been disqualified. Election officials ruled he did not file enough valid petition signatures to be awarded a ballot position. Therefore, it appears Rep-Elect Kennedy will now be unopposed for re-nomination. Winning the Democratic primary in this Buffalo-anchored district is tantamount to claiming the November election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-26 as D+18.

McMurray lashed out at the party leaders after his rejection was made public claiming in a long letter on X that, “it feels like even if we collected 100,000 signatures it would not have made a difference. They would have found something to throw me off. I’m a threat to their closed shop business. And don’t kid yourself; it’s a business.”

OR-5: New Dem Leader — In 2022, one of the bigger upsets on election night was Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer defeating Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner to convert Oregon’s 5th District to the GOP. Earlier that year, in May, McLeod-Skinner upset seven-term Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary.

A new brilliant corners Research & Strategies poll (April 26-28; 402 likely OR-5 general election voters; live interview) finds McLeod-Skinner now trailing state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) by a 37-34 percent count. Due to McLeod-Skinner losing the seat in the previous election and generally rated as a weaker candidate, most of the Democratic leadership and establishment are backing Rep. Bynum. Therefore, this polling result is not particularly surprising.

Whoever wins the Democratic primary will find themselves already in a toss-up general election battle against Rep. Chavez-DeRemer. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates OR-5 as D+3. President Biden carried the district in 2020 with a 53-44 percent margin. The Daily Kos Election site statisticians rank the seat as the ninth most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

April-May Primary Outlook – Part II

Primaries

Today, we conclude our early primary outlook with a recap of the May 14 primaries in Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia, and the May 21 contests in Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon.

Maryland

May 14 will host a very active day in Maryland politics. Voters will choose nominees for an open US Senate race and three open House seats which, in most cases, will determine who will also win the general election.

The big statewide race features US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks vying for the open US Senate Democratic nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D). Cardin spent more than $24 million on his campaign before the end of 2023, but still has not fully pulled away from Alsobrooks in the polling. The winner will face former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in what is now a competitive general election even in this most Democratic of states.

Eleven-term Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Cockeysville) is retiring and leaves a six-way Democratic primary in his wake. The odds-on favorite to capture the party nomination and the seat in the general is Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski (D), who already represents more people than the number who reside in a congressional district. State Delegate Harry Bhandari (D-Parkville) is one of the top contenders, but the race is Olszewski’s to lose.

With Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Baltimore) retiring, perhaps the largest congressional field in the country has assembled. A total of 22 Democrats have filed for the primary in a district where the party nominee will easily win the seat in November. Among the almost two dozen candidates are two state senators and three state delegates. With so many competing candidates, the party nomination is completely up for grabs.

Rep. Trone’s open 6th CD features crowded primaries for both parties in what should lead to a competitive general election. Democrats have fielded 14 candidates including April McClain Delaney, a former Commerce Department official who is married to former US Rep. John Delaney, and a pair of state delegates.

Republicans see seven contenders, two of whom have won major primaries but gone down to defeat in the general elections because they are too conservative for the region. Dan Cox, the 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee and two-time congressional nominee and ex-state Delegate Neil Parrott, are the two most well-known Republicans competing for the nomination. Should one of them top the GOP field, the edge goes to the eventual Democratic nominee in a district that should be considered a toss-up.

Reps. Andy Harris (R-Cambridge), Glenn Ivey (D-Cheverly), Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville), Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore) and Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park) all face minor primary opposition.

Nebraska

The Cornhusker State features both US Senate seats up for election in 2024. The second due to a previous resignation, but neither Sen. Deb Fischer (R) and appointed Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) face major competition in the Republican primary nor general election.

While Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) will be embroiled in another tough general election battle in the Omaha anchored 2nd District, neither he nor state senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tony Vargas (D) have serious primary opposition.

Reps. Mike Flood (R-Norfolk) and Adrian Smith (R-Gering), whose district encompasses all or parts of 80 of Nebraska’s 93 counties in a seat that stretches from Wyoming to Iowa, face only minor primary opposition.

West Virginia

The Mountain State features open Senate and gubernatorial races; Republicans are favored in both contests. Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D) retirement makes the GOP eventual nominee, likely Gov. Jim Justice who is expected to defeat Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town), the prohibitive favorite. Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott is favored to win the Democratic primary.

The open Republican gubernatorial primary is a spirited contest featuring Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R), who leads in all polls, and two sons of current West Virginia office holders. Former state Delegate Moore Capito and businessman Chris Miller, sons of US Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) and Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), are battling for the nomination as is Secretary of State Mac Warner. The primary winner will become a strong favorite against the presumptive Democratic nominee, Huntington Mayor Steve Williams.

Rep. Mooney’s open 2nd District yields a Republican primary of five candidates, including state Treasurer Riley Moore, a nephew to Sen. Capito. Moore is a clear favorite to win the party nomination and defeat presumptive Democratic nominee Steven Wendelin in the general election.

Georgia

While the Peach State is arguably the most pivotal domain in the presidential election, 2024 is a rather quiet year for in-state Georgia politics. There is very little competition in the general election, but we do see three primaries of note.

In GOP Rep. Drew Ferguson’s open 3rd District, six Republicans compete for the party nomination including state Sen. Mike Dugan (R-Carrollton), two ex-legislators, and a former Trump White House aide. The two top finishers being forced into a June 18 runoff election is the likely primary outcome. In a district that 538 rates R+38, the eventual Republican nominee is a lock to win the general election.

Two Democratic members face primary opposition. Because of the latest court-ordered redistricting directive, Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) must run in a much different district than the current domain she represents. As a result, she is drawing primary opposition from state Rep. Mandisha Thomas (D-Atlanta) and Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson. Rep. McBath is favored, but the two opponents forcing a runoff is not beyond the realm of possibility. The eventual Democratic nominee will have an easy run in November.

Veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta), no stranger to facing primary opposition, now has six Democratic opponents including Marcus Flowers, who challenged Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in 2022. East Point City Councilwoman Karen Rene is the only candidate within the group who has any current political constituency. Rep. Scott is again favored for renomination. GA-13 is safely Democratic in the general election.

Idaho

With no Senate or governor’s race on the ballot, the Idaho election cycle will be uneventful. In the primary, Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian) faces no primary opposition, while veteran Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) drew two minor Republican challengers. No change is expected in the Gem State delegation.

Kentucky

The Blue Grass State is another place with little political activity this year. All incumbents are expected to easily retain their congressional seats.

Reps. Morgan McGarvey (D-Louisville), Thomas Massie (R-Garrison), and Hal Rogers (R-Somerset) each face minor opposition in their respective Democratic and Republican primaries.

Oregon

The Beaver State also has no governor or Senate race on the ballot this year, but there are three contested primaries scheduled for May 21.

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Portland), retiring after serving what will be 28 years in the House at the end of the current term, leaves a safe Democratic seat (D+43) for which seven party members will compete. State Rep. Maxine Dexter (D-Portland), a physician, is one of the leading candidates. Former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal, sister to Washington US Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Seattle), and Gresham City Councilor Eddy Morales also appear to be viable contenders. The winner of this plurality primary will take the seat in November.

In the 5th District, Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) seeks a second term. She defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner two years ago but may see a different opponent this year. While McLeod-Skinner is running again, the Democratic establishment, including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), is instead lining up behind state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas), which likely gives her the inside track toward the nomination. In a seat rated R+3, this will become a national congressional race in the general election.

The 6th District is the new seat that Oregon earned in the 2020 national reapportionment. Drawn as a D+7 district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, the first ever congressional race within the new domain finished in a closer manner. Then-state Rep. Andrea Salinas (D) captured the seat with a 50-48 percent victory margin over Republican businessman Mike Erickson.

While Rep. Salinas faces only minor primary competition, the Republican field is more crowded. Erickson returns but will face 2022 gubernatorial candidate David Burch and Dundee Mayor David Russ in the battle for the party nomination. In a presidential year with President Joe Biden expected to post a strong double-digit Oregon victory, Rep. Salinas has a much better chance of posting a wider margin in the ’24 congressional race.

DCCC’s Initial Targets

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024

House

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released their first targeting list entitled “Red to Blue,” though the group of 17 House districts actually contained one already in the Democratic column.

In alphabetical order by state, the list of 17 includes 16 Republican districts where the DCCC has endorsed a Democratic candidate:

STATE	DISTRICT	INCUMBENT	DCCC CANDIDATE
Arizona	13	DUARTE, JOHN	ENGEL, KIRSTEN
California	6	CISCOMANI, JUAN	GRAY, ADAM
California	22	VALADAO, DAVID	SALAS, RUDY
California	27	GARCIA, MIKE	WHITESIDES, GEORGE
California	41	CALVERT, KEN	ROLLINS, WILL
Colorado	3	OPEN	FRISCH, ADAM
Iowa	1	MILLER-MEEKS, M.	BOHANNON, CHRISTINE
Iowa	3	NUNN, ZACH	BACCAM, LANON
Michigan	7	OPEN	HERTEL, CURTIS
Michigan	1	ZINKE, RYAN	TRANEL, MONICA
Nebraska	2	BACON, DON	VARGAS, TONY
New York	3	SPECIAL ELECTION	SUOZZI, TOM
New York	17	LAWLER, MIKE	JONES, MONDAIRE
New York	19	MOLINARO, MARC	RILEY, JOSH
Oregon	5	CHAVEZ-DeREMER, L.	BYNUM, JANELLE
Texas	15	de la CRUZ, MONICA	VALLEJO, MICHELLE
Virginia	2	KIGGANS, JEN	SMASAL, MISSY COTTER

The Michigan district included in the above list is that of Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing). Her run for the Senate leaves her central Michigan seat open, but the Democrats winning here in 2024 would not result in a party division gain.

President Joe Biden carried only six the 16 Republican districts, and the FiveThirtyEight data organization provided a numerical rank so as to consider lean Democratic in those same six districts. Therefore, on this list, the half-dozen names below should be viewed as the most achievable targets, which, as you will see, are California and New York dominant.

They are:

CA-13 (Duarte)
CA-22 (Valadao)
CA-27 (Garcia)
NY-3 (Special election; Santos)
NY-17 (Lawler)
OR-5 (Chavez-DeRemer)

This underscores that the key states to determine the next House majority are the Golden and Empire States.

Most of the endorsed Democratic candidates (12 in the 16 Republican held seats) previously ran and lost their race in 2022. A total of 10 unsuccessfully opposed the current GOP House incumbent, while two lost other races (Tom Suozzi, Governor; Mondaire Jones, NY-10).

Curiously, some other vulnerable districts were excluded from this first release. Likely, this is due to one of three reasons: the DCCC has not yet endorsed a candidate; they don’t see a sufficiently competitive challenger within the current field; or, they perceive the Republican incumbent as being too strong.

They are:

DISTRICT	CANDIDATE
AZ-1	David Schweikert
CA-40	Young Kim
CA-45	Michelle Steel
FL-13	Anna Paulina Luna
FL-27	Maria Elvira Salazar
MI-10	John James
NJ-7	Tom Kean Jr.
NY-4	Anthony D’Esposito
NY-22	Brandon Williams
PA-1	Brian Fitzpatrick
PA-10	Scott Perry
WI-1	Bryan Steil

Most of the members included within this latter group will be added to later target lists. The fact that Rep. Steil’s name is not yet appended to the “Red to Blue” listing suggests that the Wisconsin State Supreme Court may not order a redraw of the congressional map this cycle. Keeping Rep. Steil’s congressional district intact would give him little incentive to launch a statewide campaign against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).

At this point in the new redistricting process, Republicans are likely gaining a net one seat, but the New York redraw hasn’t yet occurred.

The GOP is assuredly gaining three seats from North Carolina, while the Democrats look to increase by one each in Alabama and Louisiana. Since the Georgia and Florida maps will not likely change for the 2024 election portends good news for Republicans; likewise for the Democrats in New Mexico.

Biden to Get Challenger; New OR-5 Candidate; Conflicting Polls in Kentucky; Presley Gaining Ground

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 27, 2023

President

President Joe Biden / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Rep. Dean Phillips: Apparently Will Challenge President Biden — The Wall Street Journal is reporting that three-term Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips (D-Plymouth) is reportedly prepared to file to enter the New Hampshire Democratic primary to challenge President Joe Biden. Rep. Phillips has been calling for other Democrats to oppose the president for the party nomination, and now he is prepared to take up the mantel. Conversely, Biden’s campaign announced that the president will not participate in the New Hampshire primary, saying that he will “follow the rules” that he proposed to the Democratic National Committee that changes the progression of pre-Super Tuesday states.

It is likely we will see Biden’s New Hampshire supporters initiate a write-in effort for the president, but Rep. Phillips could still be positioned to win the state in a primary that has yet to be scheduled. The only two reasonable dates available that would keep the state as the first-in-the-nation primary is Jan. 23, because state law dictates that their primary not only be first, but also a week before any other.

House

OR-5: Dem Governor Endorses a New Candidate — Gov. Tina Kotek (D) this week announced her endorsement of state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Happy Valley) in the 5th Congressional District Republican primary, thus eschewing 2022 Democratic nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner who received 49 percent of the vote against now freshman Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley).

Going into the general election, McLeod-Skinner was tabbed as the favorite to retain the seat for the party after she upset then-Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary.

Therefore, her performance against Chavez-DeRemer was deemed an under-performance. This explains why the Democratic leadership would be looking to change nominees for the 2024 election.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+3. President Biden carried the seat 53-44 percent. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks OR-5 as the ninth most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Governor

Kentucky: Conflicting Polls — As we draw closer to the Nov. 7 gubernatorial election in Kentucky, recent polling shows a major difference regarding the size of Gov. Andy Beshear’s (D) lead over Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R).

The co/efficient survey research firm polling for the Bluegrass Freedom Action Fund (Oct. 18-19; 1,845 likely Kentucky general election voters; live interview & text) found Gov. Beshear’s lead dissipating. According to this survey, the ballot test has closed to 47-45 percent. Garin-Hart-Yang Research, however, conducted an internal survey for the Beshear campaign several days earlier and found a different result. The poll (Oct. 14-16; 741 likely Kentucky general election voters; live interview & text) sees Gov. Beshear holding a 52-44 percent advantage. The Kentucky election is scheduled for Nov. 7.

This election, and the governor’s contest in Mississippi, could become precursors for next year’s regular election if the voters follow the Louisiana lead. The Oct. 14 gubernatorial election in the latter state opened eyes when Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry scored an upset outright win on Oct. 14. Polling consistently showed Landry leading, but with a percentage much lower than his final showing. Democrat Shawn Wilson finished well below his research projections. Gov. Beshear is favored to win re-election, but if co/efficient is correct, this race could be headed for a photo finish.

Mississippi: Presley Gaining Ground — Democrats are releasing a new Public Policy Polling internal survey (Oct. 19-20; 601 likely Mississippi general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) that finds their nominee, Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, who is a second cousin to the late Elvis Presley, pulling to within one point of Gov. Tate Reeves (R), 46-45 percent.

Again, the turnout and voter swing dynamics that we saw in Louisiana might also play a role here. If so, we could be seeing a positive Republican trend. If not, then the Louisiana results would be considered an outlier. Additionally, the 2019 featuring then-Lt. Gov. Reeves and then-Attorney General Jim Hood (D), produced similarly close polling within the last month of the campaign. In the end, Reeves posted a 52-47 percent victory.

Independent Gwendolyn Gray is also on the ballot. She could be significant in a close race between the major party contenders by keeping the leader under 50 percent. If no one receives majority support, a secondary runoff election will be held on Nov. 28.

Blunt Rochester Announces in Delaware; Montana’s Rosendale Way Up; An NV-1 Rematch Shaping Up;
OR-5 Democratic Primary Forming

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 23, 2023

Senate

Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington)

Delaware: Rep. Blunt Rochester Announces — As expected, Delaware at-large US Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington) officially declared her US Senate candidacy. The move became obvious when Sen. Tom Carper (D) announced his retirement in May, and as part of his address encouraged the congresswoman, a former aide and appointee when Carper was governor, to run for the seat.

Rep. Blunt Rochester, first elected in 2016, is expected to have little opposition both in the Democratic primary and general election. The Senate seat will remain in the Democratic column. There could be developing competition brewing for Blunt Rochester’s open House seat, however.

Montana: Rep. Rosendale Way Up in GOP Primary Poll — Public Policy Polling tested the Montana Republican Senate primary (June 19-20; 51 likely Montana Republican primary voters; live interview & text) and sees US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) as the big early leader. According to the ballot test, Rep. Rosendale posts ahead of retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, 64-10 percent. The congressman faced seven different Montana electorates in the past seven elections and won five times.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee leadership would prefer a different candidate since Rep. Rosendale is viewed as part of the far right flank of the Republican Conference and lost to Sen. Jon Tester (D) in the 2018 campaign, but the statewide GOP polling sample propelled him to a huge lead for a potential 2024 Senate race. Thus, whether the national Republican leadership likes it or not, Rep. Rosendale, when he announces for the Senate, must be viewed as the clear favorite to win the Republican nomination. He would then advance into the general election for a re-match with Sen. Tester, the lone Democratic statewide office holder in Montana. This is one of top three Republican conversion opportunities in the nation.

House

NV-1: Re-Match Possibility — In November, financial planner Mark Robertson (R) held Nevada Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) to a 52-46 percent re-election victory in a district that had been drastically changed through redistricting. Many, however, viewed the result as a Republican under-performance in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+4.

Whether Robertson gets another chance to oppose Rep. Titus remains a question. He has Republican primary opposition from business consultant Ron Quince and restaurant chain owner Flemming Larsen.

All three Las Vegas Democratic seats have competitive potential. With such a slim House majority and the Alabama racial gerrymandering ruling from the Supreme Court favoring the Democratic position, the Republicans will pursue as many offensive opportunities as possible. Therefore, expect Nevada to become another hotbed of political activity in 2024.

OR-5: Democratic Primary Forming — Two weeks ago, Oregon Metro President Lynn Peterson (D) announced her entry into the Congressional District 5 Democratic primary; Wednesday, state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Happy Valley) filed a committee with the Federal Election Commission to join her as the perceived two top candidates. The winner will advance to challenge freshman Rep. Lori Chavez DeRemer (R-Happy Valley).

The 5th District race will be hotly contested. Chavez-DeRemer defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner by a 51-49 percent margin in November. McLeod-Skinner, a first-time candidate in Oregon but former local office holder in California, had already defeated incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary. She is also a potential 2024 candidate. The district carries a D+3 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization and is categorized as a swing district. This will be a top Democratic conversion opportunity seat and will attract national political attention.

Trump Indictment Poll Results;
Schiff in Wide Open Senate Race; Competition in OR-5; Matos in Rhode Island Special Election Poll Lead

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 14, 2023

President

National Poll: Similar Trump Indictment Response — The new national Ipsos/ABC News Poll (June 9-10; 910 registered US voters with a 411 Republican over-sample) finds a plurality of Americans (48 percent) believing former President Donald Trump is right to be charged pertaining to the indictments associated with the classified document issues.

A separate plurality cell (47 percent) within the same sampling universe, however, also believes the case is politically motivated. Only 37 percent say politics was not a factor in the indictments being brought. The remaining 16 percent are unsure. These numbers are within the same realm as the Ipsos/ABC poll conducted in early April after the New York indictments were brought against Trump.

Senate

California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)

California: Emerson College Poll Finds Dead Heat — Emerson College tested the California electorate regarding the state’s open Senate race, which the Super Tuesday March 5 qualifying election will see all but two candidates eliminated. According to the EC survey (June 4-7; 1,056 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques), no candidate even breaks 15 percent support. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) reaches the 15 percent plateau, and nips Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), who registers 14 percent support. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) places third with six percent. The top-tested Republican candidate, businessman James Bradley, claims only four percent backing.

Obviously, this poll suggests a wide open race. Among Democrats, Rep. Schiff leads Reps. Porter and Lee, 23-22-10 percent. Republicans and Independents are wholly undecided with 60 and 58 percent of both groups indicating they have not decided upon for whom they will vote. Turning to retiring incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), 63 percent of those sampled believe she should resign the seat due to health considerations. Her job approval ratio within this poll was a poor 22:48 percent favorable to unfavorable.

House

OR-5: Local Official Steps Forward — The president of the Oregon Metro Council, an elected regional government body covering three populace counties in and around the Portland area, says she will enter the 2024 Fifth District congressional race. Democrat Lynn Peterson is hoping to challenge GOP freshman incumbent Lori Chavez DeRemer (R-Happy Valley).

The new 5th District stretches from the southern Portland suburbs, touches the eastern Salem suburbs, and then moves southeast to include the Bend area. Chavez-DeRemer defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who ousted then-Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary, by a 51-49 percent count in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+3.

Peterson will certainly have competition in the Democratic primary. Two minor Democrats have already announced and state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-North Clackamas) and McLeod-Skinner, potentially seeking a re-match, are viewed as possible candidates.

RI-1: Lt. Gov. Matos Out to Quick Special Election Lead — Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D), one of the top contenders from a Democratic special election field that could reach as high as 17 candidates when filing closes on June 30, released the results of her recent Expedition Strategies internal poll. The survey (June 5-8; 400 RI-1 Democratic special election primary voters; live interview) sees Matos opening with a large 22-9 percent lead over former state Rep. Aaron Regunberg, a 2018 candidate for lieutenant governor. State Sen. Sandra Cano (D-Pawtucket) and Providence City Councilman John Goncalves trailed with six and five percent. No other candidate breaks four percent support.

The special Democratic primary is scheduled for Sept. 5, with the general election on Nov. 7. Rep. David Cicilline (D) resigned the seat on June 1 to accept a position with a non-profit organization. The FiveThirtyEight organization rates RI-1 as D+32, so the eventual Democratic primary winner will become the prohibitive favorite to capture the seat in November.

Census Reapportionment:
The Hidden Votes

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 9, 2023

President

Census Reapportionment: The Hidden Votes — Already, the 2024 presidential race has actually gotten closer. The 2020 national election was decided by a 74 electoral vote margin, a 306-232 margin for Democrat Joe Biden. Without any state changing its 2020 outcome, however, his victory spread has now decreased to 68 EVs.

Census reapportionment is the reason, and it makes a net six-vote difference in the Republicans’ favor based upon Donald Trump’s aggregate EV number from the last election. This is because reapportioning the number of US House seats throughout the country affects and changes the electoral vote count (EVC). As you know, the EVC is comprised of each state’s federal representatives, meaning two senators and the number of House members each entity possesses.

Therefore, under the new totals, Biden’s winning count over his Republican opponent would be 303-235. Understanding that the presidential winner needs 270 electoral votes, the Republican deficit is now 35 as opposed to 38. This is important because it changes the number of states that Republicans must convert in order to win the next race.

President Biden loses electoral votes in California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania, but gained two back in Colorado and Oregon. The first five lost a congressional seat apiece in reapportionment, while the latter two gained a district apiece. Conversely, the next Republican nominee would gain electoral votes in Texas (2), Florida, Montana, and North Carolina, but lose one apiece in Ohio and West Virginia. Thus, the Republicans gained an aggregate three electoral votes while the Democrats lost three, for the net swing of six.

For the next Republican nominee, he or she must again re-establish the party’s southern core. Former President Trump needed to carry the southern tier states of Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida to position himself throughout the rest of the country. He failed to do so, losing Arizona and Georgia, but the next nominee must return these two entities to the GOP column if the party is to have any chance of again winning the White House.

If the next Republican nominee fails to take these two states, for a total of 27 electoral votes (Georgia 16; Arizona 11), there is no realistic chance of cobbling together a 270-vote victory coalition. The GOP nominee will need at least one more state to convert in addition to Arizona and Georgia, with Wisconsin’s 10 votes being the simplest numerical path to an outright state coalition victory.

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