Tag Archives: Iowa

Boozman Looks to be in Strong Shape in Arkansas; Two Pollsters, Same Tight Result in Arizona; Minnesota Gov. Walz Has Comfortable Lead

By Jim Ellis — Sept. 21, 2022

Senate

Arkansas Sen. John Boozman (R)

Arkansas: Rare Data — It has been assumed that Sen. John Boozman (R) secured a third term in office when he won his contested Republican primary back in March. A Hendrix College/Talk Business Net survey, from the organizations that regularly sponsor Arkansas political polls, finds Boozman in predictably strong shape for the November election. The survey (Sept. 12; 835 likely Arkansas general election voters) gives the senator a 44-31 percent advantage over civil rights activist and realtor Natalie James (D).

Arizona: Two Pollsters, Same Tight Result — The Trafalgar Group’s new Arizona survey (Sept. 14-17; 1,080 likely Arizona general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Sen. Mark Kelly’s (D) previously large lead dwindling to 47-45 percent over Republican venture capitalist Blake Masters.

Earlier in September, Emerson College (Sept. 6-7; 627 likely Arizona general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) arrived at exactly the same conclusion: Sen. Kelly leading 47-45 percent. Remembering that the 2020 Senate race closed quickly against Kelly, limiting him to a 51-49 percent victory over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) after leading by an average margin of 6.6 percent through 21 October polls according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the 2022 race looks to be headed toward a very interesting conclusion.

House

IA-3: An Unsurprising Dead Heat — In one of America’s tightest congressional districts, Rep. Cindy Axne’s (D-Des Moines) campaign just made an interesting move. The congresswoman’s political leadership yesterday released Rep. Axne’s new internal Impact Research survey (Sept. 7-11; 500 likely IA-3 voters; live interview & text) that reports she and her Republican challenger, state Sen. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant), are tied at 47 percent apiece.

The point of releasing the poll, however, is to show emphasis on the abortion issue among the respondents, which the campaign strategists believe will swing voters to the Democratic incumbent. Even when knowing Sen. Nunn’s abortion position, however, the best Rep. Axne can do is tie, suggesting that despite deep disagreements over the issue in the central Iowa region it does not appear to be bringing any more voters into Axne’s camp. Her 47 percent support figure quoted in this poll is consistent with her two 49 percent victory percentages in 2020 and 2018.

Governor

Minnesota: Gov. Walz With Comfortable Lead — In a race where the polling has been inconsistent during the past few months, Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy has released a new ballot test result from their research study conducted for the Minneapolis Star Review and Minnesota Public Radio (Sept. 12-14; 800 likely Minnesota general election voters; live interview). The M-D conclusion finds Gov. Tim Walz (D) leading former state Sen. Scott Jensen (R), 48-41 percent.

The governor’s job approval score is 52:42 percent favorable to unfavorable. President Biden remains upside-down in Minnesota on his favorability index, but the number is improving. In this M-D poll, 46 percent approve of the job the president is doing and 49 percent disapprove.

Ohio: Conflicting Surveys — We are seeing places around the country where pollsters are producing very diverse ballot test results even when testing an electorate within the same time realm. The Ohio governor’s race is another such example. A Civiqs organization poll, surveying for the Daily Kos Elections site (Sept. 10-13; 780 likely Ohio general election voters; online) projects a close race developing between Gov. Mike DeWine (R) and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley (D). The Civiqs ballot test projects Gov. DeWine to hold only a 44-41 percent edge.

Emerson College, however, sees a much different margin when polling within exactly the same time frame. Their poll (Sept. 10-13; 1,000 likely Ohio general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) yields the governor a wide 50-33 percent spread over Mayor Whaley. The latter poll result is more consistent with other publicly released surveys for this campaign.

Our Primary Preview Shows Liz Cheney Down Big in Latest Wyoming Poll; Key California Race Polls; Incumbents in Trouble in Four States

By Jim Ellis — Aug. 15, 2022

Primary Preview

Rep. Liz Cheney, (R-WY)

WY-AL: Cheney Down 29 Points in Poll — The University of Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center conducted a poll of Tuesday’s Republican congressional primary (July 25-Aug. 6; 562 likely WY-AL Republican primary voters; live interview) and sees GOP attorney Harriet Hageman leading US Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wilson/Jackson) by a whopping 57-28 percent count as the candidates wrapped up their final campaign activities during the weekend.

Remembering that Wyoming has an open primary where Democrats and Independents can vote in a Republican primary (and vice-versa), Cheney’s numbers among self-identified Republican voters are even worse, 68-15 percent, in favor of Hageman. The congresswoman gets 98 percent of the crossover Democratic vote, however, while the Independents are split about evenly with the incumbent leading 43-40 percent within this voter segment.

Former Wyoming Republican National Committeewoman Harriet Hageman (R)

The pollsters wanted to see how many people are actually voting for a Cheney opponent, namely Hageman, or to make a statement of opposition against the congresswoman. Therefore, after the individual had stated a candidate preference, the interviewer asked the respondents if their vote is to “mainly support” (the named candidate) or oppose Liz Cheney? The reverse was asked of those people saying they are voting for the congresswoman.

Among Republicans voting for Hageman or one of the other Cheney opponents, 39.5 percent said they were making a statement of opposition toward the Congresswoman, while 31.5 percent said they were stating support for their chosen candidate. The remaining 29.0 percent volunteered that they were doing both. Among the Democrats voting for one of the Republicans other than Cheney, 100 percent of them said they were doing so to oppose the congresswoman. Within the Independent non-Cheney voter segment, 47.1 percent said their vote opposes Cheney versus 21.6 percent to support their chosen contender.

For those supporting Rep. Cheney, 77.8 percent of Republicans, 60.0 percent of Democrats, and 58.8 percent of Independents said their vote is a sign of support for the congresswoman. It appears clear that Hageman will defeat Rep. Cheney on Tuesday night.

A Cheney defeat would mean that of the 10 Republican House members who voted to impeach former President Trump, only one, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-WA) who survived his jungle primary with less than 30 percent of the vote, is on a track to win re-election. Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) could also win, but he fared poorly in his jungle primary, barely capturing second place, and currently trails in polling opposite Democratic state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield). Therefore, his re-election path is more difficult.

Should Cheney lose on Tuesday as expected, four of the impeachment Republicans would have lost re-nomination (Tom Rice (R-SC); Peter Meijer (R-MI); Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA); and Ms. Cheney), and four did not seek re-election (Reps. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), Anthony Gonzalez (R-OH), John Katko (R-NY), and Fred Upton (R-MI)).

House

California: Series of Key Race Golden State Polls — RGM Research conducted polls in House districts throughout the country including three in northern California contested districts. All are in close competition at this point. Each of the polls consisted of 400 respondents for the individual tested districts. The CA-9 poll was conducted during the July 19-26 period.

In the Stockton anchored district, Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) and San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti (R) are tied at 38 percent. In the new open 13th CD that stretches from the southern Sacramento County border to Fresno, the survey was conducted during the July 26 – Aug. 2 period. On this ballot test, rancher John Duarte (R) and state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D-Merced) are tied at 37 percent.

In Rep. David Valadao’s (R-Hanford) 22nd CD (July 30-Aug. 5), the ballot test finds state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield) leading the congressman, 39-34 percent.

IN-2: Special Election Scheduled — Gov. Eric Holcomb (R), as expected, announced that the special election to replace the late Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-Elkhart) will be held concurrently with the Nov. 8 general election. Republicans will gather in a precinct committee convention on Aug. 20 to choose a nominee for the special election, and a replacement for Walorski, who won the May Republican primary, in the regular election. Democrats are expected to nominate the party’s regular election nominee, educator Paul Steury.

Incumbents: Polls Find Four Incumbents Trailing — The RMG Research firm is polling around the country and found an additional four races where the incumbent House member is trailing. This, in addition to Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) falling behind in his Fresno/Bakersfield seat as covered in the California report above.

In Iowa, state Sen. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) holds a substantial 49-41 percent advantage over Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Des Moines) according to 400 respondents on the RMG survey conducted over the July 29 – Aug. 5 period.
Former New Jersey state senator and 2020 Republican congressional nominee Tom Kean Jr. leads Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Rocky Hill) 46-38 percent on the 400-person sample RMG Research survey conducted in the Garden State’s 7th CD (July 23-28).
Moving to the Kansas City, KS area, challenger Amanda Adkins, the 2020 Republican congressional nominee, holds a 46-45 percent edge over Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park). This RMG poll also surveyed 400 likely voters, and in KS-3 over the period of July 21-28.
Finally, in the Las Vegas area, the RMG poll for Nevada’s 3rd District (July 23-29; 400 likely NV-3 general election voters) finds challenger April Becker (R) holding a 44-41 percent lead over two-term Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas).

Ohio Poll Posts Rep. Ryan to Larger Lead; CT-5 Race on the Radar; Three Ties in Iowa; Lombardo Closing in NV

By Jim Ellis — June 26, 2022

Senate

Author J.D. Vance, Ohio Senate Candidate

Ohio: Progressive Left Poll Posts Rep. Ryan to Larger Lead — The progressive left Innovation Ohio organization is quoting a GrowProgress platform survey (July 5-10; 2,000 registered Ohio voters; online) that projects US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) leading GOP author J. D. Vance, 46-41 percent in Ohio’s open Senate race. The latest Impact Research firm survey (June 27-30; 816 likely Ohio voters) also found Rep. Ryan with the edge, but in only a 48-46 percent split. Impact Research, a Democratic pollster, formerly operated under the name ALG Research.

The results are not particularly surprising since Rep. Ryan is heavily outspending Vance at the present time, this GrowProgress online survey has a large error factor, and Ohio political polling typically shows tight races until the closing days prior to the election. Still, the preponderance of data suggests this is a close contest in a state that can often fall into the swing category.

House

CT-5: Race on the Radar — A just-released Public Opinion Strategies survey for the George Logan (R) congressional campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee (June 29-30; 400 likely CT-5 general election voters; live interview) suggests that Connecticut’s 5th District congressional race might become competitive. The survey finds US Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Wolcott) holding only a 46-41 percent edge over former state Sen. Logan.

This may become a race to watch. According to the Federal Election Commission second quarter financial disclosure report, Rep. Hayes has a huge $1.69 million to $205,000 cash-on-hand advantage. To even the financial score, however, the Daily Kos Elections Blog reports that the Republicans’ Congressional Leadership Fund has already reserved $1.75 million of media time for the western Connecticut market.

Iowa: Three Ties — Iowa Districts 1, 2 & 3 were cast as toss-up seats in the 2021 redistricting plan, and the most recent polling suggests that each electorate is performing as projected. In southeastern Iowa’s 1st District, freshman Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Ottumwa), no stranger to close elections after winning her 2020 race by just six votes, is in another predictably tight contest. According to the early July Change Research survey, (June 30-July 4; 375 likely IA-1 general election voters part of a 1,488 person statewide sample; online) Rep. Miller-Meeks edges state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D-Iowa City) by just a 39-38 percent factor.

A more recent Public Policy Polling survey (July 19-20; 594 IA-2 voters) finds freshman Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion) and state Rep. Liz Mathis (D-Hiawatha) tied at 44 percent apiece in the Cedar Rapids anchored 2nd CD. In Rep. Cindy Axne’s (D-Des Moines) 3rd CD, she and state Sen. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) are deadlocked at 43 percent in a Moore Information Group study (July 9-11; 400 likely IA-3 voters; live interview) released earlier this month.

Governor

Michigan: Badly Outspent, Tudor Dixon Maintains GOP Lead — Despite being outspent by millions of dollars, a new Mitchell Research survey (July 17-18; 501 likely Michigan Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & text) continues to show that online talk show host Tudor Dixon is maintaining her lead in the GOP gubernatorial primary. The latest ballot test finds her claiming a 28-20-15-10 percent advantage over businessman and self-funder Kevin Rinke, real estate broker and Trump activist Ryan Kelley, and chiropractor Garrett Soldano as the candidates close in on the Aug. 2 Michigan primary.

Republicans are scrambling in this race since early leader James Craig, the retired Detroit Police Chief, was forced out of the race for failing to file the legally required number of petition signatures. The eventual Republican nominee will then challenge Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in the general election.

Nevada: Lombardo Closing — The Nevada governor’s race is expected to be another close contest on election night, and two recently released surveys conducted during the same time period confirm the early prognostications.

The Tarrance Group, polling for the Joe Lombardo for Governor campaign (July 5-10; 600 likely Nevada general election voters; live interview) and Emerson College (July 7-10; 2,000 registered Nevada voters, 500 from each of the four congressional districts; interactive voice response system, online & text) both see the governor’s race already falling within the polling margin of error. Tarrance finds Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) topping Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo (R), 46-44 percent, while the Emerson College result is 44-40 percent, also with Gov. Sisolak leading.

Toss-Up Polling Results in NH;
A Dead Heat in Iowa; A Nevada Voting Initiative to be Considered

By Jim Ellis — July 25, 2022

Senate

New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan (D)

New Hampshire: Toss-Up Polling — The progressive left research firm Data for Progress (June 22-July 8; 903 likely New Hampshire voters; online) released their latest Granite State poll and find Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) headed toward her predicted re-election dogfight. The ballot test series appears interchangeable, suggesting that the incumbent is endangered regardless of who she faces after the Sept. 13 primary. Though the sampling period for this poll is long, the sample size is high thus negating some of the accuracy flaws. The results are also consistent with other polling, so the numbers appear legitimate.

Polled against state Senate President Chuck Morse (R-Salem), Sen. Hassan leads 49-46 percent. Both retired Army General Don Bolduc (R) and former Londonderry Town Manager Kevin Smith (R) record 49-45 percent deficits against Sen. Hassan. The New Hampshire Senate race will prove to be one of the key races in the nation to determine the next majority.

House

IA-3: No Surprise, a Dead Heat — The Moore Information Group tested the toss-up rated IA-3 congressional race between two-term Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Des Moines) and state Sen. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant). Not surprisingly, the poll results (July 9-11; 400 likely IA-3 voters; live interview) found the two candidates tied at 43 percent apiece. Axne never reached 50 percent in either of her congressional wins. Therefore, we can expect another very close result come election night.

MI-11: Shock Poll — We haven’t seen a poll of the intra-party Democratic congressional primary pairing between Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Rochester Hills) and Andy Levin (D-Bloomfield Township) since February, but a new Target Insyght survey conducted for the Jewish Insider publication suggests the race has drastically changed. Early in the year, the two were virtually tied in a series of surveys. The TI poll (July 18-20; 500 likely MI-11 Democratic primary voters; live interview) now finds Rep. Stevens holding a commanding 58-31 percent advantage, however.

The result doesn’t make much sense when looking at the favorability indexes of both candidates. Stevens records a 71:20 percent favorable to unfavorable score, while Rep. Levin’s is a similar 65:21 percent. Comparing these numbers with a landslide ballot test conclusion appears inconsistent. Expect the Levin camp to shortly release countering data.

States

Nevada: Top Five Qualifies — The ballot change initiatives keep popping up around the country, and the Nevada Secretary of State announced a measure late last week to create a jungle primary that sends five finalists to the general election; this initiative has qualified for the November initiative ballot. Ranked Choice Voting would then be used to determine the general election winner.

The plan is a long way from being enacted, however. Under Nevada initiative law, measures must be adopted in two consecutive elections. This means even a victorious “Yes” vote in November would again go before the voters in 2024. Furthermore, the state’s Democratic leadership has stated their united opposition. Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) and Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and Jackie Rosen (D), along with the state AFL-CIO, are all urging a “No” vote.

Grassley in Competitive Race in Iowa; Florida House Polling Series; Leaders in NY House Races

By Jim Ellis — July 20, 2022

Senate

Gaining on Grassley? Retired Navy Admiral Mike Franken, Democratic Iowa Senate candidate.

Iowa: Sen. Grassley in Competitive Race — Selzer & Company, which rates an A+ rating from the FiveThirtyEight poll ranking apparatus and is widely viewed as Iowa’s most consistent pollster, went into the field over the July 8-11 period. They interviewed 811 adults, 597 who identified themselves as likely voters. The Senate ballot test broke only 47-39 percent in Sen. Chuck Grassley’s favor over retired Navy Admiral Mike Franken, the Democratic nominee.

Though Sen. Grassley has the advantage beyond the polling margin of error, the race has signs of becoming competitive. The senator will be 89 years of age at the time of the election, which may be one reason he is trailing 40-30 percent with voters 35 years of age and younger. He continues perform strongly with men, 56-33 percent, but falls behind Admiral Franken with women, 44-38 percent.

Iowa is a Senate race to watch during the rest of the campaign. Contrasting the Grassley numbers, GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds holds a strong 48-31 percent advantage over Democratic nominee Deirdre DeJear.

House

Florida: A House Polling Series — The Republican Party of Florida contracted with the Tyson Group research firm to conduct a series of GOP primary polls in the state’s new open congressional districts.

In the Jacksonville area’s new 4th CD, state Senate President Pro Tempore Aaron Bean leads college professor Erick Aguilar, 24-14 percent. Just to the south in the new Volusia County 7th District, businessman and Iraq War veteran Cory Mills and state Rep. Anthony Sabatini (R-Howey-in the-Hills) are in a virtual tie with Mills leading Sabatini, 23-21 percent.

Turning to the St. Petersburg seat of Rep. Charlie Crist (D), who is running for governor, 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna leads attorney Kevin Hayslett and lobbyist and 2020 candidate Amanda Makki, 37-17-10 percent. The new Hillsborough County 15th CD features a virtual three-way tie among state Sen. Kelli Stargel (R-Lakeland) who has 13 percent support, with Secretary of State Laurel Lee and state Rep. Jackie Toledo (R-Tampa) each trailing with 10 percent apiece.

NY-10: New Poll Confirms Leaders — The Justice Research Group, polling for state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Nioh (D) and the Working Families Party largely confirms last week’s Data for Progress poll that finds NYC Councilwoman Carlina Rivera and Nioh at the top of the Democratic candidate throng competing for the new open Lower Manhattan congressional seat. Each posted a preference figure of 16 percent in this poll. There is no runoff law in New York, so the eventual nominee will almost assuredly win with just plurality support.

Like the DfP poll, the Justice Research survey finds both US Rep. Mondaire Jones, coming from his Westchester County seat, and ex-NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio falling below the 10 percent plateau. In this survey, Rep. Jones posts only eight percent preference and de Blasio three percent. The pollsters, conducted the survey from July 1-11, and interviewed 636 likely NY-10 Democratic primary voters through live conversations and texts.

NY-23: Party Chairman Trailing — While the Republican Party establishment is clearly behind NY GOP state chairman Nick Langworthy to replace resigned Rep. Tom Reed (R-Corning) in the new 23rd CD, a new poll suggests the likely Republican primary voters feel otherwise. The WPA Intelligence survey (July 9-11; 604 likely NY-23 Republican primary voters; live interview) finds former Republican gubernatorial nominee Carl Padalino posting a whopping 54-24 percent lead over Langworthy.

This poll tested voters for the regular election. Neither Padalino or Langworthy are competing in the special election to fill the balance of the term, also to be held on primary day, Aug. 23. The Republican nominee in that race is political caretaker candidate Joe Sempolinski, the Steuben County Republican Party chairman.

Iowa Sen. Grassley in Close Race; Kaptur Ahead in OH-9 Poll; Kahele Funding App Rejected in Hawaii

By Jim Ellis — July 11, 2022

Senate

Iowa’s seven-term US Sen. Chuck Grassley (R)

Iowa: Sen. Grassley Close in Opponent’s Poll — A Change Research online poll for Democratic US Senate nominee Michael Franken, a retired Navy admiral (June 30-July 1; 488 likely Iowa general election voters; text & online), finds Sen. Chuck Grassley holding only a 49-44 percent edge. CR’s first released post-primary Iowa poll found the Grassley advantage to be an even smaller 45-42 percent. These are the only two released surveys of the Iowa race since the state’s June 7 primary election. Sen. Grassley, 88, already is the longest-serving Iowa US senator, originally elected on the same night when Ronald Reagan won the presidency in 1980. He has been an elected official since winning his first term in the state House of Representatives back in 1958. Should he win the coming election and complete his next term, he will have served 70 consecutive years as a public official, counting his time in the state legislature, US House and Senate. We are sure to see more data on this race in short order.

House

OH-9: Rep. Kaptur Leads in Republican Poll — A new GOP poll from Info Strategy Northeast (partnering with the Knight Takes Rook consulting firm; June 28-29; 1,254 likely OH-9 general election voters; interactive voice response system) finds veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) leading Republican nominee J.R. Majewski, 47-42 percent, in a new district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+6 with a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean of 48.8D and 48.6R.

Majewski is an Afghan War veteran and Trump campaign activist who defeated both a state representative and senator in the primary election. Rep. Kaptur, elected in 1982, is the most senior House Democrat. Though the voter history of this newly configured 9th District should yield a competitive race, the internal dynamics already suggest that Rep. Kaptur is a clear favorite.

Governor

Arizona: Gov. Ducey Endorses — Term-limited Gov. Doug Ducey (R) publicly endorsed a candidate late last week to succeed him. Ducey supports Arizona University Regent Karrin Taylor Robson over the candidate backed by former President Trump, former news anchor Kari Lake. Since ex-US representative and 2000 gubernatorial nominee Matt Salmon dropped out of the race and endorsed Robson, polling suggests this Republican primary race is headed to toss-up status before the Aug. 2 primary election. Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is likely to easily win the Democratic nomination.

Hawaii: Rep. Kahele’s Funding Application Rejected — The Hawaii Campaign Spending Commission late last week formally rejected US Rep. Kai Kahele’s (D-Hilo) bid to obtain public financing for his gubernatorial campaign. The commission spokesperson indicated that Kahele did not file the affidavit that would commit his campaign to the program’s proscribed spending limits. Kahele was the only one of the gubernatorial candidates to apply for the available $200,000.

Rep. Kahele was elected to the House in 2020, but is leaving after one term to pursue the statewide office, but his effort has not gone well. As we reported Friday, Lt. Gov. Josh Green holds a substantial 48-16 percent lead over Kahele in the Democratic primary. The Democratic nominee will then become the prohibitive favorite to succeed term-limited Gov. David Ige (D).

Oregon: New Poll Projects Three-Way Race — The GS Strategy Group, polling for Independent gubernatorial candidate Betsy Johnson, a former Democratic state senator (June 23-29; 600 likely Oregon general election voters) finds former state House Speaker Tina Kotek (D) leading Johnson and ex-state House Minority Leader Christine Drazan (R) by a tight 33-30-23 percent margin.

A competitive three-way contest could take the race in many directions. The pollster asked if the voters would favor a “socially progressive Democrat,” a “qualified common sense independent,” or a “devout Trump Republican.” The results were 41-32-24 percent in favor of the independent choice, which isn’t particularly good considering the language was slanted to produce a result favoring such a choice. Still, the ballot test suggests that this open race could become interesting.

A Look at Primary Results
From Across Seven States

By Jim Ellis — June 8, 2022

Primary Results

Wealthy developer, former Republican and now Independent Rick Caruso surprised many by claiming first place in the open Los Angeles mayor’s race last night.

California: The Golden State’s Mixed Results — Wealthy developer, former Republican and now Independent Rick Caruso surprised many by claiming first place in the open Los Angeles mayor’s race last night; he topped US Rep. Karen Bass (D) by five percentage points. Far left San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin was recalled with 60 percent of the vote, and the down-ballot congressional results look to yield some interesting general election campaigns.

On positive notes for the GOP, former state Assemblywoman Connie Conway successfully won the special congressional election in the 22nd District and will assume office immediately after race certification to fill the unexpired portion of resigned Rep. Devin Nunes’ final congressional term. Additionally, Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita), in a district that was made more Democratic through redistricting, finished substantially ahead at this point, 50-35 percent, over former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D), the opponent he has twice beaten including a 333-vote win in 2020. An estimated quarter of the vote remains to be added, so these numbers will change at least to a degree, but the pair will again advance into the general election.

Two Central Valley seats have very low vote totals reporting, but both are interesting. In the most Democratic district in the nation that a Republican represents, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) badly trails state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield), 47-26 percent, but with less than 15,000 votes counted. Surprisingly, Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) holds only a 36-29 percent edge over San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti (R), but with less than 14,000 votes tabulated. In the neighboring new 13th District, Republican farmer/businessman John Duarte appears positioned to capture second place and is running just two percentage points behind state Assemblyman Alex Gray (D-Merced) with over half the votes counted. This appears to be a competitive race come the fall.

In Orange County, incumbent Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) appears to be placing second in the jungle primary but will advance to the general election. Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County), after trailing most of the night, did place first in her new 45th CD and advances into the general election against Community College Trustee Jay Chen (D) as expected. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh, who was thought to be a strong Republican challenger to Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) in the coastal Orange County seat, saw the incumbent top 50 percent, some 20 points ahead of him, meaning this race may not be as competitive in November as once predicted.

The California counting, with almost all votes coming in through the mail and ballots accepted after the election will drag on for a period of weeks, so we won’t have final totals for some time.

Iowa: Admiral Franken Wins — Early in the election cycle, it appeared that former US Rep. Abby Finkenauer had the inside track to the Democratic US Senate nomination, but such was not to be as retired Navy Admiral Michael Franken easily defeated her by a 55-40 percent count to claim the party nomination. He will face Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) who won a landslide re-nomination for what would be an eighth six-year term.

The governor and House races, most of which were unopposed last night, all turned out as predicted. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) runs for a second full term and will square off against Democratic marketing consultant Deidre DeJear. As expected, state Sen. Zach Nunn (R-Altoona) was an easy Republican primary winner in the state’s 3rd District. He will now oppose two-term Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Des Moines) who has yet to reach 50 percent in any of her campaigns. Freshmen Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Ottumwa) and Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) will both defend their competitive seats each against a pair of sitting state legislators, state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D-Iowa City) and state Sen. Liz Mathis (D-Hiawatha), respectively.

Mississippi: Incumbents Forced to Runoffs — It appears two Mississippi GOP congressional incumbents, Reps. Michael Guest (R-Brandon) and Steve Palazzo (R-Biloxi) will have to run in a secondary election to win re-nomination, an ominous sign for any southern incumbent. Because a majority of the voters chose a candidate other than the incumbent, a runoff vote will occur on June 28 between the top two finishers. Therefore, both Reps. Guest and Palazzo face difficult re-nomination prospects at the end of this month.

Rep. Guest and Navy Reserve officer Michael Cassidy will apparently battle in the 3rd District runoff election though about 15 percent of the estimated turnout is still outstanding. The two candidates are both hovering around the 47 percent mark, so it is unlikely that enough votes remain outstanding to allow one of the two to reach 50 percent. Challenger Cassidy labeled the incumbent as being too moderate, citing his vote to create the January 6 Commission, among other actions to justify his attack. Six-term Rep. Palazzo is under an ethics investigation for using campaign funds for personal use, and managed to only break 30 percent. His opponent looks to be Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell, who is clinging to second position but with almost a quarter of the votes still to be tabulated. Businessman Clay Wagner lags just over 2,000 votes behind Ezell in third position.

Montana: Tight Race Favoring ex-Rep. Zinke — In a surprisingly tight congressional race for Montana’s new western congressional district, a seat the state gained because of its strong population growth in national reapportionment, former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congressman Ryan Zinke appears to be successfully returning to the House but in a very close margin. At this writing, Zinke leads former state senator and frequent statewide candidate Al Olsewski by just about a percentage point as the final votes are being tabulated. The small margin will probably hold meaning that Zinke will become the new 1st District’s official Republican standard bearer. The final primary result should pave the wave for him to complete his political comeback attempt this November.

New Jersey: Key Re-Match Set — Without a statewide race on the ballot in 2022, New Jersey appears politically quiet this year. The top race in the state is a 7th District re-match between Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Rocky Hill) and former state Sen. Tom Kean, Jr. (R). The two battled to a 51-49 percent finish two years ago. Kean easily defeated a crowded Republican field to earn another shot at Malinowski who faces his Republican opponent in a less Democratic district post-redistricting. The seat now trends Republican, thus making this one of the GOP’s top conversion opportunities in the nation.

New Mexico: Ronchetti Wins Big — Former Albuquerque TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti, who held Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (D) to a closer-than-expected 52-46 percent win in 2020, romped to a win in the Republican governor’s primary topping the 58 percent mark after failing to qualify for the ballot through the Republican nominating convention. The Ronchetti win sets up a competitive battle with Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) in the fall. The governor was unopposed for re-nomination last night.

In the gerrymandered southern 2nd District, freshman Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo) will face Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D) in a district that now leans Democratic with the inclusion of part of Albuquerque. This will be a highly competitive general election campaign and a must-win for Republicans if they are to capture the House majority as many predict.

South Dakota: Incumbents Score Big Wins — In an unsurprising result, both Sen. John Thune (R) and Gov. Kristi Noem (R) scored landslide Republican primary victories with each topping the 70 percent mark in voter support. In the state’s at-large congressional primary, second-term Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) defeated Rapid City state Rep. Taffy Howard with a 59-41% spread to win re-nomination for a third two-year term. All three of the statewide GOP incumbents now become prohibitive favorites for re-election in November.