Tag Archives: former president Donald Trump

Last Night’s Primary Results; Rep. Buck to Resign; California Projections; Close Polls in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 13, 2024

President

Primary/Caucus Results — Primaries were held in three states last night, and even without results from the Hawaii caucuses, both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump exceeded the bound delegate vote requirement to score first ballot nominations. Therefore, both men become their party’s “presumptive nominee,” meaning they will become the official standard bearer at the respective party conventions in July (Republicans) and August (Democrats).

The Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington primaries went as expected with both Biden and Trump winning with landslide totals against opponents who appear on the ballot but who have withdrawn from the race.

Mississippi was the state that held its full ballot primary last night. Sen. Roger Wicker (R) won renomination against two opponents with just over 60 percent of the vote. Wicker won all but 10 counties in the state from a total universe of 82. All four Magnolia State US House incumbents were either unopposed for renomination or easily won. Freshman Rep. Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula) had two GOP opponents, and still surpassed 73 percent of the vote. All four: Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/Tupelo), Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton), Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson), and Mr. Ezell, now become prohibitive favorites to win again in November.

House

Rep. Ken Buck / Photo by Gage Skidmore

CO-4: Rep. Buck to Resign — Colorado US Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor), who had previously made public his intentions not to seek a sixth term later this year, announced yesterday that he will resign much sooner — on March 22. The move initiates the calling of a special congressional election — the fourth in the country prior to the regular general election. Gov. Jared Polis (D) responded that he will schedule the special vote concurrently with the state’s June 25 primary election.

In Colorado, special election nominations are handled through vacancy committees that the local political parties construct. This means the voters will go to the polls only once to fill the balance of the current term.

This system likely plays to Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Silt) detriment. It is highly unlikely that the District 4 vacancy committee members will choose her as the party nominee considering she is still the District 3 incumbent. This also means the dozen announced candidates already vying to replace Rep. Buck will see one of their colleagues likely chosen for the special.

California: More Finalists Projected — As the California ballot counting process moves laboriously along, the Associated Press is projecting that three more candidates will qualify for the general election from the top-two jungle primary. In the Los Angeles-anchored 34th District, both incumbent Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D) and movie executive David Kim (D) will again advance into the general election. This will be the third consecutive election in which the two have faced each other in a double-Democratic contest. In 2022, Rep. Gomez registered only a 51-49 percent general election win over Kim, so another close race is expected later this year.

In the open South San Francisco Bay seat from which veteran Rep. Anna Eshoo (D- Atherton) is retiring, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) is assured of advancing to the November election, but his eventual opponent has still not been decided. In second place is San Mateo Supervisor and former state Sen. Joe Simitian (D), who is only 749 votes ahead of Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) with approximately 26,000 ballots remaining to be counted.

Whoever wins the special will have a major advantage in the subsequent November regular election if the primary electorate chooses someone in the regular primary other than whom the vacancy committee decided upon. Another option the committee may have is to select someone who agrees not to seek a full term. Therefore, we will see more political drama occurring in Colorado as the campaign to replace Rep. Buck continues to unfold.

Governor

North Carolina: Two More Close Polls — Now that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and Attorney General Josh Stein (D) are the official gubernatorial nominees of their respective political parties after last Tuesday’s primary vote, Survey USA and the Cygnal firm went into the field to test the general election between the two new official nominees.

The S-USA poll, conducted for WRAL-TV in Raleigh (March 6-9; 850 NC adults; 736 registered North Carolina voters; 598 likely North Carolina general election voters; online), sees AG Stein leading Lt. Gov. Robinson by a tight 44-42 percent margin, which is in the consistent realm of previously released surveys. When asked about presidential preference, the sampling universe would favor former President Trump over President Biden by a 50-45 percent margin in this most critical of swing states.

The Cygnal survey was conducted during the March 6-7 period (600 likely North Carolina voters; live interview & text) and produced a slightly different outcome. While projecting a similarly close result as Survey USA, Cygnal sees Lt. Gov. Robinson leading the gubernatorial race with a 44-39 percent spread. The latter firm also finds former President Trump holding a five point lead over President Biden but with a slightly different 45-40 percent count.

Four Primaries Today; Fong Advances; Trump Endorses Nancy Mace; Indiana Governor’s Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 12, 2024

President

Primaries Today: Four States — Voters go to the polls today in Georgia, Hawaii (Republican Caucus only), Mississippi (full primary), and Washington.

In all, there are 161 Republican delegates at stake in the four states, and with former President Donald Trump already having 1,078 bound delegates of the 1,215 he needs to score a first ballot victory, securing just over 85 percent of the available delegates tonight will allow him to clinch “presumptive nominee” status. This means he will have enough bound delegates to claim a first ballot victory at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee during mid-July. For President Joe Biden, it appears he will clinch “presumptive nominee” status next week in the March 19 primaries.

In Mississippi, a quiet night is expected regarding the full ballot primary. Sen. Roger Wicker (R) faces two Republican challengers, including state Rep. Dan Eubanks (R-Walls), but there is little doubt the incumbent will be renominated outright for a fourth term tonight. In House races, each of the state’s four incumbents: Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/ Tupelo), Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton), Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson), and Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula), are seeking re-election and only Ezell faces an intra-party challenge.

The first-term congressman, who unseated then-Rep. Steven Palazzo in the 2022 Republican nomination battle, faces two Republican opponents. Businessman Carl Boyanton, who finished fifth in the 2022 congressional primary with just 6.2 percent of the vote, returns for a re-match with Ezell, and retired Army veteran Michael McGill joins them. Rep. Ezell is expected to easily win renomination tonight, thus avoiding an April 2 runoff election. Should any candidate fail to reach majority support in the initial primary, a runoff election then becomes mandatory.

House

CA-20: Fong Officially Advances — NBC News is projecting that state Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) will advance into the regular general election from the still unfolding California jungle primary. Fong has 38.8 percent of the votes counted with approximately 26 percent of the ballots still outstanding.

Ironically, the group of candidates may be on the ballot again, in the March 19 special election to immediately replace resigned former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield), before the two regular general election participants are officially certified. Under the laborious California ballot counting process, the state still has another 31 days to count and then certify the final results.

Currently in second position is Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux (R) with 25.8 percent, just ahead of Democratic educator and 2022 congressional nominee Marissa Wood who posts 22.0 percent of the vote. A total of 11 candidates are on the jungle primary ballot.

Should Sheriff Bourdeaux hold second place, a double-Republican regular general election will then occur in November. For the special election, with nine of the candidates competing, including Fong and Bourdeaux along with Wood, the special election result is expected to produce a similar result to the one just witnessed.

SC-1: Trump Endorses Rep. Mace — In 2022, former President Donald Trump endorsed former state Rep. Katie Arrington against Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), saying the incumbent is “a terrible candidate,” and she was renominated with only 53 percent of the vote.

Trump is singing a different tune for the 2024 election. Yesterday, he announced his support for Rep. Mace as she again faces a serious primary election opponent. Saying she is “a strong conservative voice for South Carolina’s 1st District,” Trump now endorses Mace as she faces former Haley cabinet secretary Catherine Templeton, who is campaigning from the congresswoman’s right political flank. Three other Republicans, including the representative’s former chief of staff, are also announced candidates.

If no one receives majority support in the June 11 primary election, a short schedule runoff will occur on June 25. The US Supreme Court is also considering a lawsuit that would declare this district an illegal racial gerrymander. If the court rules such, the 1st CD will have to be redrawn and that could lead to a postponed primary.

Governor

Indiana: Sen. Braun Way Up in Governor’s Poll — A new Emerson College statewide Indiana Republican primary survey (March 2-5; 526 likely Indiana Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds US Sen. Mike Braun (R) cruising in his quest for the state’s open governorship. The Emerson data finds Sen. Braun posting a 34-7-7-5 percent split over Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, venture capitalist Eric Doden, and former State Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers.

This data tracks with reported internal Braun data from the Mark It Red polling firm that records a 41-12 percent split over Lt. Gov. Crouch. The Indiana plurality primary is scheduled for May 7. The eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite to then win the general election in November.

Arizona Sen. Sinema Out of Running; More Super Tuesday News

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 7, 2023

Senate

Arizona: Sen. Sinema Bows Out — In addition to all the election results on Super Tuesday, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), not seeing a victory path for herself, announced that she would not seek a second term. The Independent senator thanked Arizonans in a video message (above) for allowing her to serve for 20 years in the state House of Representatives, the US House, and the US Senate. At least in the short term, the Sinema departure appears to give Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) the inside track to winning the Arizona Senate seat over former GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake.

The Sinema retirement decision means there are eight open Senate seats among the 34 statewide campaigns in the current election cycle.

President

Nikki Haley, Dean Phillips: Exit Presidential Race — Yesterday brought two campaign suspension announcements that at least unofficially clinch the respective Democratic and Republican presidential nominations for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Both Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R) indicated they are ceasing campaign activity, and thus ending any competition in the presidential nomination campaign.

Trump looks set to become the Republican presumptive party nominee on March 12, while President Biden will do so on March 19. The presumptive nominee is the individual who has secured a majority of legally bound first ballot delegates (1,968 for the Democrats; 1,215 for the Republicans), which guarantees a candidate the party nomination.

Rep. Phillips, who is not running for re-election to the House, publicly endorsed President Biden, while Haley did not announce support for Trump in her suspension declaration address, and said, “It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. And I hope he does that.”

Super Tuesday: GOP Turnout Overwhelms — In looking at the 14 Super Tuesday states where both parties held nomination events, in only two, California and Massachusetts, did more Democrats vote than Republicans. Among the more than 14.65 million people who voted in a major party Super Tuesday event, 60.6 percent chose to vote in the Republican primary. In even stalwart Democratic states such as Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Vermont, and Virginia, more voters cast a Republican ballot than a Democratic. This is a bad sign for President Biden, as primary turnout often is a good indicator of voter enthusiasm.

Republican Leadership: Sen. Barrasso Not Running for Leader — Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso announced yesterday that he would not join the Republican Caucus battle for Leader to replace Mitch McConnell (R-KY). Instead, Sen. Barrasso announced that he will run for the Caucus’s number two slot, that of Senate Republican Whip. In the race for Leader are Sens. John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX). Reports suggest that Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) is also considering entering the race. Of the three potential Leader campaign combatants, Sen. Scott is the only one seeking re-election this year.

Super Tuesday Voting

Nikki Haley suspends her campaign. (CBS video)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 6, 2024

President

Biden, Trump: Almost Clean Sweeps — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump both took major steps forward to clinching renomination with almost clean sweeps in the Super Tuesday voting entities. Both men were respectively one entity short of winning every primary and caucus.

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley topped former President Donald Trump in the Vermont Republican primary, and President Biden lost the American Samoa Caucus to unknown candidate Jason Palmer. Irrespective of those bumps along the nomination road, both President Biden and former President Trump are on track to become their party’s presumptive nominee before March 20.

Haley, calling for Trump to mend fences with those who supported her throughout the primary process, announced this morning that she was suspending her campaign for the presidency. “The time has now come to suspend my campaign,” she said. “Our congress is dysfunctional and only getting worse. … Our world is on fire because of
America’s retreat. If we retreat further, there will be more war, not less. … We must bind together as Americans. Our country is too precious to let our differences divide us. It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. And I hope he does that.”

Senate

California: Schiff, Garvey Advance — Because the California counting system requires such a long period due to signature verification for the millions of mail-in ballots cast throughout the country’s most populous state, it may be several weeks before we have final totals. That means some of the many competitive races on the ballot may be undecided for quite a long period though most contests already have a projected winner.

The state’s premier campaign is the open Senate race where appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) is not seeking a full term. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) chose her as the interim senator when incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) passed away in September.

With more than half the votes recorded, both Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) and retired baseball star Steve Garvey (R) have been projected to capture ballot positions in the general election. At this point, Rep. Schiff has 33 percent of the vote to Garvey’s 32 percent. They defeated Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) who attracted 14 and seven percent of the vote, respectively. The final tallies could change, but it appears clear that Schiff and Garvey will continue onto the general election while all other contenders are now officially eliminated.

Texas: Allred Wins Outright — In a result that would have to register as a mild surprise, US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) secured majority support in the crowded US Senate Democratic primary to clinch the party nomination outright. He will now challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in November.

House

Alabama: Moore Wins; CD-2 in Runoffs — The 1st District paired incumbents battle ended differently than polling suggested as Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) recorded a close victory over fellow Congressman Jerry Carl (R-Mobile). The two were tossed into the same district as a result of the court-ordered redistricting map designed to create a new majority minority seat. Rep. Moore, at this writing, looks to have secured a 52-48 percent victory margin.

Though Carl represents 59 percent of the new district and Moore the remainder, Moore performed much better in the portion of the new district that he currently represents. Therefore, Moore’s strong margins in familiar territory were enough to overcome Carl’s Mobile-area base. Rep. Moore is now a lock to win the general election.

The new open 2nd District will, as expected, feature runoff elections for both parties. The Democrats will host a secondary runoff race between former Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures and state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels (D-Montgomery).

For the Republicans, ex-state legislator Dick Brewbaker has qualified for the runoff but a tight battle for the second position exists between conservative attorney Caroleene Dobson and state Sen. Greg Albritton (R-Baldwin County), and it will require political overtime to determine which of the latter two advances.

The runoff elections are scheduled for April 2. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite to clinch the seat in November.

Governor

North Carolina: Nominees Chosen Today — As expected, the open governor’s primary yielded a general election that will feature Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson for the Republicans and Attorney General Josh Stein as the Democratic nominee. Both easily won their respective primary elections last night. A tight general election is forecast.

Biden, Trump Romp in Michigan; Baldwin Ahead in Wisconsin; New Redistricting Map in NY; The Attempt to Get Rep. Green to “Un-retire”

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024

President

Michigan: Primary Results — As expected, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump easily captured large percentages in winning last night’s respective Democratic and Republican Michigan presidential primary elections.

President Biden recorded 81.1 percent of the Democratic vote, though just under 14 percent voted for the Uncommitted Delegate Slate. US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) was encouraging Democratic voters to choose that option as a way to protest President Biden’s position regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict. For the Republicans, Trump attracted 68.2 percent of the GOP vote, again consistent with the result most pollsters predicted. Overall turnout favored Republicans approximately 1.13 million to about 778,000 individuals.

The Wolverine State primary represents the final installment of the pre-Super Tuesday voting events. The next primaries will occur on March 5 where 16 entities will cast primary or caucus ballots in either Democratic or Republican nomination events.

Senate

Wisconsin: Sen. Baldwin +7 Over Hovde — Businessman Eric Hovde (R) announced his US Senate candidacy in the Badger State last week, and this week we see the first polling pairing with two-term incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D). Emerson College released their latest Wisconsin survey (Feb. 20-24; 1,000 registered Wisconsin voters; multiple sampling techniques) and while the sampling universe would support Donald Trump 44-42 percent, Democratic incumbent Baldwin would lead the Senate race 46-39 percent.

The poll might look more encouraging for Republicans at first glance since Sen. Baldwin is under 50 percent and has only a single digit lead against a relatively unknown opponent. The polling universe, however, features more Republicans than Democrats, 35-33 percent with an additional 32 percent responding as non-affiliated. Though Wisconsin does not register voters by political party, voter history suggests that the poll, though weighted to reflect the actual electorate, appears to have a slight Republican skew.

House

New York: Dems Unveil New Cong Map — The Democratic super majority in the state Assembly and Senate unveiled a new congressional map that surprised many, but in retrospect the plan is an indication the party leaders knew they would face tough going on a legal challenge if they stretched their partisan interests much further.

As reported earlier, the state’s Citizens Redistricting Commission made only cosmetic changes in the plan the court created for the 2022 election. Though that map only gave Republicans a clear partisan plurality in just three of the state’s 26 seats according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the GOP candidates won 11 races. The Citizens Commission members left the court footprint largely intact, which the legislature then rejected. When the people adopted a citizens’ redistricting commission ballot proposition, the process allowed the legislature to either approve or reject the commission adopted plans.

The surprising end to this story is the legislature’s own map is another “least change” map from the court’s original footprint, which very likely means that the 2024 New York congressional playing field will be almost identical to what we saw in 2022.

TN-7: Delegation Attempting to Convince Rep. Green to “Un-retire” — So far in this election cycle, we’ve seen two US House members, Reps. Pat Fallon (R-TX) and Victoria Spartz (R-IN), announce their retirements only to change their mind and seek re-election. We may soon have a third. Public reports are coming from Tennessee where the Republican congressional delegation, including Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) who previously represented the 7th District during her career in the House, are publicly encouraging Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville), the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, to change his mind about retiring. Last week, Rep. Green announced he would not seek a fourth term.

The Tennessee candidate filing deadline is April 4 for the Aug. 1 primary, so it is possible we may soon see one less open House seat.

Michigan Presidential Primaries Today; Surprising Maine Poll; Michigan GOP Candidate Leading; NY Legislature Rejects Redistricting Map

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024

President

Michigan: Presidential Primaries Today — The presidential nomination process moves to Michigan today, and Wolverine State voters of both parties will cast delegate apportioning votes. It is clear that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will win their respective primaries, and by large majorities.

Michigan presidential Primaries underway today; is former President Donald Trump besting President Joe Biden in a new Maine poll?

The Emerson College survey (Feb. 20-24; 1,000 registered Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Biden posting a whopping 75-5 percent lead over US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN). A total of nine percent report planning to vote for the Uncommitted Slate, the move that Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) was encouraging Michigan voters to take in order to protest the Biden’s pro-Israel policy. On the Republican side, Trump records a 69-20 percent lead over former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Both men are already in the “presumptive nominee” sphere.

Maine: Shock Poll; Trump Leads in General — A very surprising general election poll in Maine was released from the Pan Atlantic Research organization in Portland, Maine. The poll (Feb. 6-14; 836 Maine adults; 791 Maine likely voters; online) finds former President Trump topping President Biden in what was previously a state largely unattainable for Republican presidential candidates. The numbers find Trump leading the Biden 38-32 percent with 21 percent saying they would vote for another candidate. The “other candidates” were not identified, but it is reasonable to assume that most of these New Englanders choosing to support a candidate other than Biden or Trump would be headed to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Trump is carrying the state largely on the back of his large 20-point lead in the 2nd Congressional District. He would trail Biden in the Democratic 1st CD by eight points. Because Maine’s congressional districts carry their own electoral votes, the results suggest Trump would get three electoral votes from the state and Biden, one.

Of course, these surprising results can easily change but things will have to significantly improve for President Biden before such happens. According to this data, the Biden’s favorability index in Maine is 38:61 percent favorable to unfavorable, meaning the campaign’s task of improving his image is a difficult one.

Senate

Michigan: New GOP Poll Posts Ex-Rep. Rogers to Primary Lead — A regular Michigan pollster, MRG Research, surveyed the state’s Republican electorate and becomes the first poll in the field since retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) withdrew from the Senate race. The study (Feb. 19-22; 600 likely Michigan primary voters) finds former US Rep. Mike Rogers opening a large 23-7 percent Republican primary lead over ex-Rep. Peter Meijer.

Another former congressman, Libertarian Justin Amash, is reportedly considering entering the GOP race but has yet to do so. The Michigan state primary is not scheduled until Aug. 6. The eventual Republican Senate nominee will very likely face US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the general election. The congresswoman is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

House

New York: Legislature Rejects Redistricting Map — Yesterday, both chambers of the New York state legislature rejected the Citizens Redistricting Commission congressional plan that made few changes to the court-imposed map of 2022. It is clear that the Democratic legislature wants to draw a political footprint more favorable for their party but will do so under what will be an almost guaranteed partisan gerrymandering lawsuit.

The state Senate then passed a bill attempting to limit where such a lawsuit could be filed, listing the most populous and Democratic counties in the state. Republicans claim that such a maneuver will be ruled unconstitutional.

While the Democrats may have won this latest New York redistricting round, the fight is a long way from culmination.

Trump Projected to Win Electoral College; California Primary Poll Jockeying; Texas Senate Race Numbers; NJ-8 Dueling Dem Polls

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 22, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump

Decision Desk HQ: Projects Trump at 312 EVs — The Decision Desk HQ, in association with The Hill newspaper, has forecast a new 50-state electoral vote projection. All swing states are averaged based upon data from at least five recent polls. The new estimates give former President Donald Trump his largest-ever Electoral College vote lead, 312-226.

The key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all landing in the Trump camp according to DDHQ. To win the 2024 election, Trump needs to convert states that equal 35 electoral votes. According to this projection, Trump is improving his stance by 80 electoral votes when compared with his 2020 performance.

Senate

California: Primary Battle Over Second Place — Emerson College surveyed the California electorate in a partnership with The Hill newspaper and the Inside California Politics blog (Feb. 16-18; 1,000 registered California voters; 935 likely jungle primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) again found US Rep. Adam Schiff (D) leading the open US Senate field, this time with 28 percent of the vote. In second place, and for the first time with a sizable advantage over the third-place finisher, is former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) with 22 percent. Following are Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) with 16 percent and nine percent, respectively.

The poll has a number of positive points for Garvey. Aside from the Emerson/Hill data suggesting he secures a general election slot, he does well with older voters. He registers a 33 percent preference total from those over 70 years of age, which is typically the highest turnout sector, and scores in second position with who voters believe would best handle the crime, homelessness, war in Israel, and immigration issues, while rating only three points below who would best handle abortion.

Additionally, the third-place finisher, Rep. Porter, does best with the youth vote, but this segment has the poorest participation history.

The California jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5. The top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation or percentage attained will advance to the general election. Sen. Laphonza Butler (D), who Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appointed to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), is not running for a full term.

Texas: Rep. Allred Establishes Strong Primary Lead, Cruz Likewise in General — YouGov, polling for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin (Feb. 2-12; 1,313 registered Texas voters; 1,200 likely Texas primary voters; online), tested the Lone Star State electorate for the coming March 5 primary election, and found US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), who has been using his resource advantage to advertise heavily, exceeding the 50 percent threshold within the Democratic primary segment. According to the YouGov results, Allred records a 52 percent preference figure as compared to state Sen. Roland Gutierrez’s (D-San Antonio) 14 percent.

Former Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez and state Rep. Carl Sherman (D-Dallas) register support figures of only five and two percent.

Within the general election sample, however, the tables turn. Here, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) records his best polling stance of the current campaign, with a 46-32 percent margin over Rep. Allred. The Daily Kos Elections site analysts criticized the poll because the questionnaire did not assign a party label with each candidate. They reason that Allred would have received better support had such been the case.

Two points of disagreement: first, the primary question was asked before the general election question, thus the voters were already told that Allred was a Democrat. Second, it is more likely that Sen. Cruz, who has not been overly popular in the state, would have actually benefited more with party labels since Texas has been a solid state for the GOP since the early 1990s.

House

NJ-8: Dueling Internal Dem Primary Polls — Last week, Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) released the results of his internal TargetSmart survey that posted him to a relatively strong 46-22 percent advantage over Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in their quest for the Democratic nomination. On Wednesday, the Bhalla campaign countered with their own poll, this one from GQR Research another highly rated polling firm. This data (released Feb. 20; 403 likely NJ-8 Democratic primary voters) finds a much different ballot test, with the incumbent leading only 44-41 percent.

These polls, seemingly both well conducted, are far apart in how they view the race. This will be another of the most interesting primary contests to watch during our current election cycle.

Tlaib Calling for Protest Vote; Potentially Strong Senate Candidate Files in Wisconsin; Lesko to Retire, But Not From Politics; Close Governor Race in Washington

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2024

President

Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) is calling for a protest vote in Michigan’s Democratic primary.

Michigan: Rep. Tlaib Calling for Protest Vote — The Michigan presidential primary is scheduled for next Tuesday, and controversial US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) is calling for pro-Palestinian voters to “support Gaza” by voting for the “Uncommitted Slate” in the Democratic primary. While this tactic may gain some votes within the large Muslim community in the Detroit area, it will not deter President Joe Biden from securing all of Michigan’s Democratic delegates. He is on track to mathematically clinch the nomination on the first convention ballot when the March 19 primaries conclude.

Senate

Wisconsin: Republican Candidate Files with FEC — Banking and real estate investor Eric Hovde, who ran for the Senate in the 2012 Republican primary, has filed a 2024 US Senate campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. Wisconsin is the last potentially competitive state where Republicans do not have a strong candidate. The national Republican leadership hopes Hovde will be viable enough to keep this state in play for November. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is seeking a third term.

In 2012, Hovde lost the Republican primary to former four-term Gov. Tommy Thompson on a 34-30 percent count. Thompson would then lose to then-US Rep. Baldwin, 51-46 percent, in what proved to be the senator’s first statewide victory. Wisconsin elections are always close, so this will be yet another race to watch as the election cycle proceeds.

Maricopa County, Arizona: Retiring Congresswoman to Run for Local Office — GOP Congresswoman Debbie Lesko (R-AZ) may be retiring from Congress, but not from elective politics. Lesko announced that she will run this year for an open seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors. The incumbent, Republican Clint Hickman who was re-elected four years ago with almost 59 percent of the vote, is retiring. Former President Donald Trump carried the 4th Supervisorial District with 57 percent over President Joe Biden in 2020. Each of the five county supervisors represent just over 900,000 people, just slightly larger than the size of a congressional district.

In recent election years several California US House members, then-Reps. Janice Hahn (D-Los Angeles), Gloria Negrete McLeod (D-San Bernardino), and Paul Cook (R-San Bernardino) also left the US House to run for a county board position. Reps. Hahn and Cook were successfully elected. Former Congresswoman Hilda Solis (D) is also a member of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, but she was elected after serving as US Labor Secretary in the Obama Administration.

Governor

Washington: Another Close Governor Race Survey — Once again, we see more survey data predicting a tight open seat campaign, this time in the Washington governor’s race. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Northwest Progressive Institute sees Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) and former US representative and King County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R) advancing into the general election from the Aug. 6 jungle primary. Ferguson and Reichert recorded a respective 35-27-9 percent showing over Richland School Board member Semi Bird in the primary polling.

Though a previous PPP poll posted Reichert to a small lead, this sampling universe sees Ferguson inching ahead. The ballot test result favored the Democratic attorney general within the polling margin of error, 46-44 percent.

Manchin Declines Presidential Run; Tester Up in Latest Montana Poll; Texas Polls Bouncing About;
NC Governor’s Race a Dead Heat; Nevada Redistricting Push Fails

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2024

President

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D)

Sen. Joe Manchin: No Presidential Run — After testing the political waters for a minor party presidential run, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) over the weekend announced that he will not be pursuing a national candidacy. While not said, it is clear that the task of obtaining ballot position in enough states to be competitive proved daunting, and at this point in the cycle very unlikely to be achieved. Without a party label, it is extremely difficult, as even Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is finding, to qualify fully for the national campaign.

Senate

Montana: Tester Up in Latest Senate Poll — Survey USA, polling for the NonStop Local organization (Feb. 12-15; 700 North Carolina adults; 612 registered North Carolina voters; 549 likely voters) tested the Montana electorate shortly after Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) announced his short-lived Senate campaign. The results provided good news for Sen. Jon Tester (D), who faces the political winds in his face this year. Against both aerospace company CEO and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy and Rosendale, Sen. Tester posted identical 49-40 percent leads. Earlier surveys found a much closer ballot test.

Rep. Rosendale’s abrupt exit from the Senate race virtually clears the GOP field for Sheehy, who already has the entire Republican state and national establishment backing his campaign. The Montana race is a top-tier GOP challenge contest and one of the states likely to determine which party will claim the Senate majority in the next Congress.

Texas: Senate Polls Bouncing Around — We’re already seeing very predictable Texas Senate polling. Recent polls have shown a tight race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas). It is expected that the various ballot tests will show a close contest all the way to election day, at which point Sen. Cruz will pull away and post a 5-plus point victory. Additionally, while Rep. Allred has been very successful on the fundraising front, he still must navigate through a contested Democratic primary that has a good chance of advancing into a runoff election.

The National Public Affairs Republican polling firm (Feb. 6-8; 807 likely Texas voters; live interview & text) is the latest to survey the Texas electorate. While the data produces a three point Republican advantage on the generic congressional question and former President Donald Trump tops President Joe Biden at 42-35 percent, the Senate race between Cruz and Allred finds the two tied at 44 percent apiece. Previously, we saw chronological polls giving Cruz a nine-point (YouGov), two-point (Emerson College), and six-point (YouGov) lead.

Governor

North Carolina: Open Gov Race a Dead Heat — Of the eleven 2024 gubernatorial campaigns on the ballot, the North Carolina contest is clearly the most competitive. With Gov. Roy Cooper (D) ineligible to seek a third term, it appears that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and Attorney General Josh Stein (D) are headed to the general election.

East Carolina University just completed a poll of the state (Feb. 9-12; 1,207 registered North Carolina voters; Interactive Voice Response system) and posts Robinson to a 53-13-7 percent lead over attorney and former prosecutor Bill Graham and state Treasurer Dale Folwell in the Republican primary. On the Democratic side, AG Stein records a similarly strong 57-7 percent margin over retired state Supreme Court Judge Mike Morgan.

Turning to the general election, this polling universe yields a 41-41 percent tie between the two men. North Carolina typically features tight statewide races, and this open governor’s race appears to be consistent with such voter history.

States

Nevada: Redistricting Ballot Prop Rejected — Proponents of creating a redistricting commission were dealt a major setback at the end of last week. Two measures that would begin the process to remove redistricting power from the legislature and governor and create a citizens’ commission to draw maps can’t appear on the ballot this year according to a Nevada state court ruling. The ruling cited the Nevada statue stating ballot initiatives must demonstrate that adopting the measure will pay for itself. The redistricting commission proposition lacked such proof.

In Nevada, ballot measures must pass in consecutive elections in order to be adopted. Therefore, it appears this support group will have to wait until 2026 and 2028 to attempt qualifying the proposition since the latest court ruling will likely prohibit the supporters from obtaining the 102,362 valid petition signatures required for ballot qualification in this election year.

Trump Expands Huge Lead in Primary States; Craig Suspends Senate Campaign; Primary Averted in NJ-9

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump

South Carolina: Trump Expands Huge Lead — The international survey research firm YouGov, polling for CBS News (Feb. 5-10; 1,483 registered South Carolina voters; 1,001 likely South Carolina Republican presidential primary voters; online) finds former President Donald Trump expanding his previous ballot test lead over former UN ambassador and ex-South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley as the candidates move toward the Feb. 24 Palmetto State GOP primary. Trump secured 65 percent of the poll respondents’ support versus 30 percent for Haley.

Trump does much better as to who would perform better on all associated issue questions with the exception of which candidate is most likable. In terms of committed support, 87 percent of the individuals who say they support Trump report that their vote is firm. A total of 78 percent of Haley voters say the same about their support. A convincing Trump South Carolina victory in her home state will effectively end the Haley campaign.

Upcoming Primaries: Trump Way Ahead — The Morning Consult firm released the results of polls they conducted through key states with primaries on March 5, 12, and 19. The ballot tests are overwhelming in favor of former President Trump. In Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, and Ohio, Trump registers between 75 percent (Arizona) and 85 percent (Florida) of the Republican respondents. Haley posts support percentages only between 14 percent (Florida) and 20 percent (Illinois).

Senate

Michigan: Craig Suspends Senate Campaign — For the second election in as many cycles, retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) has ended a political campaign before the candidate filing process even concludes. Craig announced that he is suspending his statewide US Senate campaign but may instead turn to what could be an open Detroit mayoral race in 2025.

With Craig departing the Senate race, former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) looks to be in good shape. Also in the GOP race is ex-US Rep. Peter Meijer, while another former congressman, Republican-turned-Libertarian Justin Amash, remains a potential entrant. The Michigan candidate filing deadline is April 23 in association with the Aug. 6 primary. US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) is a prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

House

NJ-9: Primary Averted — State Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) ended her primary challenge to veteran Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) after all three of the county Democratic Party organizations that comprise the 9th District voted to slate the 14-term incumbent. Therefore, Rep. Pascrell, who is 87 years old, will be a lock for the Democratic nomination and should again breeze to re-election in November.

New Jersey’s 9th Congressional District is anchored in Paterson and Passaic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+17. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NJ-9 as the 84th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.