Michigan Presidential Primaries Today; Surprising Maine Poll; Michigan GOP Candidate Leading; NY Legislature Rejects Redistricting Map

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024

President

Michigan: Presidential Primaries Today — The presidential nomination process moves to Michigan today, and Wolverine State voters of both parties will cast delegate apportioning votes. It is clear that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will win their respective primaries, and by large majorities.

The Emerson College survey (Feb. 20-24; 1,000 registered Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Biden posting a whopping 75-5 percent lead over US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN). A total of nine percent report planning to vote for the Uncommitted Slate, the move that Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) was encouraging Michigan voters to take in order to protest the Biden’s pro-Israel policy. On the Republican side, Trump records a 69-20 percent lead over former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Both men are already in the “presumptive nominee” sphere.

Maine: Shock Poll; Trump Leads in General — A very surprising general election poll in Maine was released from the Pan Atlantic Research organization in Portland, Maine. The poll (Feb. 6-14; 836 Maine adults; 791 Maine likely voters; online) finds former President Trump topping President Biden in what was previously a state largely unattainable for Republican presidential candidates. The numbers find Trump leading the Biden 38-32 percent with 21 percent saying they would vote for another candidate. The “other candidates” were not identified, but it is reasonable to assume that most of these New Englanders choosing to support a candidate other than Biden or Trump would be headed to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Trump is carrying the state largely on the back of his large 20-point lead in the 2nd Congressional District. He would trail Biden in the Democratic 1st CD by eight points. Because Maine’s congressional districts carry their own electoral votes, the results suggest Trump would get three electoral votes from the state and Biden, one.

Of course, these surprising results can easily change but things will have to significantly improve for President Biden before such happens. According to this data, the Biden’s favorability index in Maine is 38:61 percent favorable to unfavorable, meaning the campaign’s task of improving his image is a difficult one.

Senate

Michigan: New GOP Poll Posts Ex-Rep. Rogers to Primary Lead — A regular Michigan pollster, MRG Research, surveyed the state’s Republican electorate and becomes the first poll in the field since retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) withdrew from the Senate race. The study (Feb. 19-22; 600 likely Michigan primary voters) finds former US Rep. Mike Rogers opening a large 23-7 percent Republican primary lead over ex-Rep. Peter Meijer.

Another former congressman, Libertarian Justin Amash, is reportedly considering entering the GOP race but has yet to do so. The Michigan state primary is not scheduled until Aug. 6. The eventual Republican Senate nominee will very likely face US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the general election. The congresswoman is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

House

New York: Legislature Rejects Redistricting Map — Yesterday, both chambers of the New York state legislature rejected the Citizens Redistricting Commission congressional plan that made few changes to the court-imposed map of 2022. It is clear that the Democratic legislature wants to draw a political footprint more favorable for their party but will do so under what will be an almost guaranteed partisan gerrymandering lawsuit.

The state Senate then passed a bill attempting to limit where such a lawsuit could be filed, listing the most populous and Democratic counties in the state. Republicans claim that such a maneuver will be ruled unconstitutional.

While the Democrats may have won this latest New York redistricting round, the fight is a long way from culmination.